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Dean On Draft

~ NBA Draft Analysis

Dean On Draft

Category Archives: Big Boards

2018 Mega Board

20 Wednesday Jun 2018

Posted by deanondraft in Big Boards

≈ 4 Comments

This is my finest work yet. Still not perfect, but I’d bet these rankings look fairly accurate in 5 years.

1a. Luka Doncic 6’8″ PG/PF, Real Madrid

Doncic is a point guard in a power forward body, as he is 6’8″ with a strong frame and at age 19 was able to lead Real Madrid to Euroleague championship while winning MVP.

His only flaw is that his athleticism is merely decent, but this will be of little concern if he proves to be both a skill wizard and a basketball genius. He can shoot, score, pass, rebound, draw free throws, and is an intelligent defensive player and he has clear potential to be an all-time great.

The only concern is that his shot is currently only good but not elite, as he shot 32% from 3P (on high volume of attempts) and 80% FT. If his shot does not improve, his athleticism may inhibit him from being more than Hedo Turkoglu. But he is almost certainly going to be good with strong odds of being an all-time great.

1b. Jaren Jackson Jr. 6’11” C, Michigan St.

JJJ is custom built to be a defensive stud in the modern era, as he is an elite rim protector with mobility to switch onto the perimeter. He has a good defensive IQ, a monster 7’5″ wingspan, and can cover a ton of ground making him by far the best defensive prospect in the draft.

Offensively he is more raw, but showed good shooting and handling ability for an 18 year old big. His shot has an awkward form and low release, but he gets it off quickly and it was accurate as a freshman. He is still prone to sloppy turnovers and limited creation, but he showed a budding ability to attack off the dribble from the perimeter.

At worst JJJ is an ideal 3 + D big man like a modern Serge Ibaka, and if his offense develops well he has potential to be an all time great superstar.

It’s really close between Luka and Jaren. I rate them as the top 2 prospects of the past 6 drafts.

3. DeAndre Ayton 7’1″ C, Arizona

Ayton has excellent tools for a center at he is tall, strong, long, mobile, and smooth. He is also an efficient offensive player as he uses his elite frame and body control to create easy shots inside, and is a competent shooter and an unselfish passer. He will be an interesting counter to small ball centers, as he can absolutely eviscerate smaller competition in the post.

The big concern is that in spite of ideal physical tools, he was a poor defensive player at Arizona. He had bad instincts and awareness, was often beat when he should not have been, and did not make the impact you would expect from a physical beast like himself.

But historically speaking, consensus #1 overall picks with elite stats tend to do well in the NBA. Ayton should have a really good career in spite of his flaws.

4. Wendell Carter Jr. 6’10 C, Duke

WCJ is essentially good at everything but defending the perimeter, which makes him enigmatic in an era where big man are being asked to hold their own on switches more frequently. There is some risk he is a Greg Monroe type who can not hold his own on the defensive end.

But he is not that slow, and given his high IQ it would not be a surprise if he figures out how to be good defensively. He compares statistically to players such as Tim Duncan, Chris Bosh, Karl Anthony-Towns, Kevin Love, and Al Horford so if he improves his perimeter defense enough he can be an excellent pro.

5. Zhaire Smith 6’4″ SG, Texas Tech

Zhaire is an undersized combo guard who can barely dribble, but he is by far the most athletic player in the draft and may be the best athlete in the NBA.

He has a good 6’9.75″ wingspan, good feel for the game, and a budding shooting ability. Historically nuclear athletes do not require an elite handle to make a big scoring impact, and even if his scoring does not develop well he can be a very good role player.

Zhaire is dripping with potential as an elite high floor, high ceiling sleeper.

6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 6’6″ PG/SG, Kentucky

SGA is a tall, long, silky smooth point guard who is an incredibly unique prospect.

He is excellent at running the pick and roll, as he is always in control and uses his high IQ and elite body control to either get to the rim and finish or create a quality look for his teammate with his passing. But he has a thin frame and limited athleticism, so there is some doubt as to how well this will translate to the NBA level.

Similarly he made 82% FT but his slow release and low 3PA rate makes it unclear how good he will shoot.

On defense his height, 6’11.5″ wingspan, and solid lateral mobility gives him upside as a switchable defensive player, but he was not consistently good on this end for Kentucky.

He is on the fence where it’s unclear whether he will be above or below average in creation, shooting, and defense, which makes him hard to predict. But he has excellent intangibles and a high IQ, which could be just enough to pay off the team that errs on the side of optimism.

7. Mo Bamba 7’1″ C, Texas

Bamba offers a monstrous 7’10” wingspan, decent mobility, great rebounding, and a developing 3 point shot to give an interesting 3 + D profile.

But at this moment in time his game is full of holes– he often gets beat on the perimeter, makes bad decisions in pick and roll defense, and his offensive game is limited to using his reach for easy finishes as he is raw and does not pass with a currently limited shooting ability.

Teams are betting on his off court intelligence enabling him to develop into a better pro than he was NCAA player, but there is some risk he is only slightly better than Alexis Ajinca.

8. Marvin Bagley 6’11” PF Duke

Bagley is an old school garbage power forward who has excellent athleticism and motor to rebound and finish very well. His developing shooting ability and good quickness gives him some hope of fitting in on the perimeter.

The trouble is that he had horrible defensive instincts as a freshman, and with a somewhat limited wingspan he is not a true rim protector who can block shots to atone for his mistakes.

Bagley could be the next Amar’e Stoudemire, but it’s worth wondering exactly how much that is worth. Stoudemire’s defense made him difficult to build around and Phoenix and New York had some of their best playoff runs when he was injured. Even if he stuffs the stat sheet with points and rebounds, it may not amount to wins.

9. Michael Porter Jr. 6’11” PF, Missouri

MPJ is the most polarizing player in the draft. He is a big athletic scorer who posted monster EYBL stats and may be in the mix for #1 overall had he stayed healthy and played a full season for Missouri.

But instead he had a back injury and played 2 games like a black hole, shooting 10/30 FG with just 1 assist. Even prior to these two games he had struggled to get past his man off the dribble, and looks awkward navigating through traffic and relies heavily on stepback jumpers. He is also not great laterally or smart defensively,

Nevertheless his talent cannot be ignored. He is a huge wing, and if his shot develops well he will be able to get it off at a high volume. He also uses his size to rebound and make plays on defense.

His upside is a sort of Carmelo/Durant hybrid, where it depends heavily on his shotmaking and ability to stay healthy. MPJ is a true mystery box who is one of the toughest prospects in the draft to predict.

10. Kevin Knox 6’9″ SF/PF Kentucky

Knox is a prototypical stretch 4, as he is a big wing with good shooting, handling, and switching tools. He is more of a fluid athlete than explosive, but at age 18 still has plenty of room to grow.

The main concern for Knox is in spite of his physical profile, he had a disappointing amount of rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, although this may be in part chalked up to playing in a supersized lineup for a bad coach in John Calipari. He has played better both in AAU and workout settings.

The Celtics’ recent success with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum may inspire other teams to gamble on young, big wings who were highly touted pre-NCAA, and Knox fits the mold as he has star scoring potential as he is a good shooter with a nice floater.

Knox is a gamble and there is no guarantee he amounts to anything as a pro. But if he does pan out the payoff can be rich.

11. Miles Bridges, 6’7″ SF, Michigan St.

Miles is the prototypical 3 + D wing, as he is strong and athletic with good switchability potential, rebounding, passing, shooting, and secondary creation.

The only question is how much star upside Miles offers. He has somewhat short arms with a 6’9.5″ wingspan, did not rack up many steals, and went to the line surprisingly infrequently for a player with his physical tools. He doesn’t always play like the great athlete he is, which causes some concern for his feel for the game.

Nevertheless Miles has an easy path to usefulness. And given his athleticism, star upside cannot be ruled out.

12. Robert Williams 6’10” C, Texas A&M

BobWill is a good target for a team that is feeling Clint Capela FOMO, as he has elite length and athleticism that gives him elite finishing + switchability potential in a big who rebounds, passes, and protects the rim.

But there are some questions about his feel for the game, as Texas A&M’s defense performed better with him off the court, and he needs to improve his defense for his impact to match his potential.

13. Josh Okogie 6’4″ SG/SF Georgia Tech

Okogie’s 6’4.5″ height may seem underwhelming for a wing, but he makes up for it with a monster 7’0″ wingspan, strong frame, and excellent athleticism. He also has a non-stop motor and lockdown potential as a man to man defender against multiple positions.

Offensively he is a good shooter and a decent passer, and has a good first step and handle to create shots but struggles to finish at the rim with poor body control.

Okogie projects to be a versatile 3 + D wing, and if he can improve his finishing he has sneaky upside.

14. Kevin Huerter, 6’7″ SG/SF, Maryland

Huerter is everybody’s favorite sleeper, as he is an excellent shooter with enough height, athleticism, and basketball IQ to become a solid defensive player.

He is limited by short arms, a somewhat narrow frame, and isn’t much of a shot creator or rebounder. But he may have the highest IQ in the draft, and it’s worth giving him a shot of figuring out a way to populate the rest of his game to complement his shooting. He also has excellent body control that enabled him to finish 60% of his 2P as a sophomore at Maryland.

Huerter does not have much star potential, but could have sneaky upside as a well rounded floor spacer like Kyle Korver or Klay Thompson. Even if not he still can easily be a solid role player.

15. Trae Young, 6’2″ PG, Oklahoma

Trae Young posted insane box score stats for Oklahoma, as he has a rare combination of shooting, handling, and vision and racked up monstrous point and assist totals.

But unfortunately his box score stats did not amount to major team level impact, as he gave back much of his offensive production with horrific defense and often played out of control taking a number of bad shots and attempting low IQ passes.

His lack of defensive effort and out of control style pair poorly with his awful physical profile, as his short arms, narrow frame, and merely good but not elite athleticism demand a high basketball IQ to have a great pro upside. Thus far Young has not shown nearly the level of IQ to merit a top 10 pick.

He nevertheless could be a skill wizard with enough instincts and vision to be an Isaiah Thomas level impact, but he will come with the same fit issues and playoff limits as IT as his physical limits make him easier to slow down and he can be hunted on defense. In reality he will likely be more like Trey Burke.

Trae has huge downside risk and a badly flawed upside, thus I am lower on him than consensus.

16. Troy Brown 6’7″ SF/PF, Oregon

Troy is a big, young, wing who can pass, rebound, handle, and maybe shoot.

His flaw is that he has limited athleticism and was not efficient as a freshman for Oregon. But he is still 18 on draft night, and if his skill develops he has intrigue as a versatile, multi-positional 3 + D wing.

Troy could be a good role player with sneaky weirdo upside, or he could never put an NBA career together. He is one of the trickier players in the draft to peg.

17. DeAnthony Melton 6’4″ PG/SG, USC

Melton is a combo guard with amazing vision and instincts, decent athleticism, and sorely limited skill level.

As a freshman he did most of his damage in transition, and was badly inefficient in the halfcourt. Statistically he is a doppelganger for Jrue Holiday’s freshman performance at UCLA, but his handle and shooting may not match Jrue and could result in an offensive player more like Marcus Smart.

But in the event that Melton’s skill develops well, he could be an interesting 3 + D combo guard who can play some point guard as he does have the vision and passing ability.

18. Mikal Bridges 6’7″ SF, Villanova

Bridges offer a good combination of shooting, team defense, and efficiency to fit the modern archetype for 3 +D role player.

He has decent athleticism + mobility, but there is some risk he will struggle with switching as he often gets burned by quicker wings and bullied by bigger ones. He is not much of a rebounder, passer, or shot creator, which at age 21 puts a cap on his long term upside.

Bridges should be a useful role player in the NBA, although he likely will not be much better than Justin Holiday or James Ennis. It makes him a decent mid-late 1st round choice, but there just is not enough upside to justify a lottery selection.

19. Dzanan Musa 6’8″ SF/PF

Musa offers an intriguing blend of size, skill, and instincts in the late 1st. He just turned 19, and young, big wings who can pass and shoot are often great upside targets.

That said, he has short arms (6’9.5″ wingspan), average athleticism, and idolizes Kobe Bryant. Playing like Kobe without having Kobe’s talent is not ideal. He takes bad shots and is mistake prone on defense.

Musa is one of the more intriguing talents in the late first, but if he insists on playing like Kobe it will undermine his ability.  But if he can be coached and improves his basketball IQ with age, he can provide a nice payoff for a late 1st gamble.

20. Collin Sexton, 6’1″ PG Alabama

Sexton is an elite scorer as he has great athleticism and body control to be able to get to the rim and finish. The trouble is that he does not complement this with much else, as he showed disappointing passing and defense at Alabama and is not a great shooter.

Most of his upside comps are not inspiring– Iverson with less athleticism or Kyrie with worse shooting are not the most exciting players to target. Those players are flawed to begin with, and take away part of their specialness and you are left with Jeff Teague. And there is some risk Sexton’s instincts and IQ aren’t good enough to justify getting his scoring on the floor.

Ultimately Sexton’s upside is attractive on paper, but most of the time he is going to disappoint and be a challenging fit into NBA lineups.

 

21. Lonnie Walker 6’4″ SG, Miami

Lonnie has nice length, athleticism, shooting, and man to man defense, and projects to be a JR Smith type role playing SG.

In theory he has upside to be more, but it is hard to see his ticket there. He isn’t that skilled, that smart, or that athletic, and he plays smaller than his size as he is allergic to rebounds and free throw attempts.

22. Elie Okobo 6’3″ PG, Pau-Orthez

Okobo emerged out of nowhere to be a quality prospect, as he went from a low usage combo guard to a full fledged point guard at age 20. He has good length, athleticism, and shooting, and the parallels to Damian Lillard cannot be ignored. He has upside if a GM wants to swing for the fences in the late first.

But he also has immense risk, as he is still turnover prone, has a lower steal rate than most elite PG’s, and his 19 year old limits cannot be ignored. Okobo is a classic boom or bust who is worth a look once the lottery talents are off the board.

23. Keita Bates-Diop 6’8″ SF/PF

Bates-Diop has excellent switching tools, as he is 6’8.5″ with 7’3.25″ wingspan, and good quickness. He can shoot, rebound, and protect the rim, and is ideal as a versatile 3 + D role player similar to Al-Farouq Aminu.

But at age 22 he has limited upside, as he does not have much ball skills and his feel for the game is only OK– he has a disappointing steal rate in spite of his monster length and has shown limited vision and passing.

He has good odds of being a useful role player, but upside concerns keep him out of the lottery conversation.

 

24. Jarred Vanderbilt 6’9″ PF Kentucky

Vanderbilt is a functional shot and healthy foot away from being a top 5 talent. Multiple injuries to his left foot prevented him from playing much at Kentucky, and his shot is also broken.

After that he has shades of Draymond Green, as he is a point forward who is a beast rebounder and was the star of the Nike Hoop Summit. He just turned 19 in April, so if he can somehow stay healthy and develop a workable shot, he has clear potential to be the steal of the draft. Or if he stays healthy and doesn’t learn to shoot, he may be able to carve out a useful niche in the NBA.

Those are two major forces working against him, but at a certain point his strengths make him a worthwhile gamble. Major potential for a 2nd round steal.

25. Bruce Brown 6’5″ SG, Miami FL

Bruce Brown has barely acceptable wing dimensions at 6’5″ with a 6’9″ wingspan, and isn’t much of a shooter in spite of turning 22 in August.

But he is arguably the 2nd best athlete in the draft behind Zhaire Smith, and his strength helps him atone for limited dimensions to play bigger than his size.

Offensively he is further behind than you would hope for a prospect who is as old as some seniors, but he can run the pick and roll and pass.

Given his excellent athleticism there could be a nice payoff if he proves to be an adequate shooter as a defensive specialist who can provide secondary creation.

26. Donte DiVincenzo, 6’5″ SG, Villanova

Donte has a limited skill package for a 21 year old combo guard with a 6’6″ wingspan, but he is an excellent athlete and decent enough at all of the role playing things to succeed as a pro.

27. Gary Trent Jr. 6’6″ SG/SF, Duke

Gary Trent Jr. is an incredibly selfish player who often elected to take contested long 2’s rather than passing at Duke, which is why he may slide to round 2.

But he is an excellent shooter with size to guard multiple positions, and at age 19 it is tantalizing to envision how well he may thrive as an NBA role player if he proves to be coachable.

28. Jacob Evans 6’6″ SG/SF, Cincinnati

At 6’5.5″ with a 6’9.25″ wingspan, Evans has SG dimensions with underwhelming athleticism and skill level. He is a decent shooter and passer with a trace of creation ability, but he is a 2nd round talent in terms of physical profile and skill level.

He makes up for it with his excellent basketball IQ, as he is one of the smartest players in the draft. He is a good defensive player, and in spite of his physical limitations has just enough tools to hold his own on switches.

His talented is limited enough such that he can bust like RJ Hunter, but Evans has decent odds of sticking as a role player.

29. Landry Shamet 6’4″ PG/SG, Wichita State

Shamet is a big point guard who can shoot the lights out.

He isn’t much of an athlete, which limits his rebounding, defense, and slashing. But he may have enough smarts and skill to overcome his limits and be a useful pro.

30. Omari Spellman 6’9″ PF/C, Villanova

Spellman is PF sized but is strong, long (7’2″), and athletic and may be able to play some center in a pinch.

He is old for a freshman as he turns 21 in July, but he can shoot and rebound and could be a decent pro if the rest of his game develops well.

31. Isaac Bonga, 6’9″ SF/PF, Frankfurt

Bonga is a frightening combination of skinny and slow, but he is incredibly cerebral for a 18 year old 6’9″ point forward.

He reminisces of a poor man’s Kyle Anderson. Anderson has provided good value for a late 1st round selection, so Bonga may be a good value in the 2nd.

32. Kenrich Williams 6’7″ SF, TCU

Kenrich is the ideal role playing wing for the modern NBA. He is not explosive, he has short arms, and is not a high volume scorer even at age 23. But he excels at every role player aspect: rebounding, passing, defense, efficiency.

He is a decent but not great shooter, but he makes up for it with his defense. His excellent basketball IQ translates to very good team defense, and his height and lateral mobility gives him potential as a switching wing.

His warts will likely cause him to slide to round 2, where he has potential to be an elite steal.

33. Anfernee Simons, 6’3″ SG, IMG Academy

Simons is undersized for SG but not a natural PG, but helps make up for it with long 6’9.25″ arms and good athleticism. He is a good shooter, but in AAU struggled to finish inside, draw free throws, and had barely more assists than turnovers.

He has potential to be a Lou Williams type, but is going to flop fairly often.

 

 

34. Mitchell Robinson 7’1″ C, No Team

MitchRob is the most enigmatic combination of elite talent and terrible intangibles since Michael Beasley. He 7’1″ with a 7’4″ wingspan and elite athleticism, and has major potential on paper as a Clint Capela type.

That said MitchRob just might not care about being good at basketball. He committed to Western Kentucky twice and then decommitted, canceled on the combine, canceled workouts, and has generally showed little inclination to actually show up and play basketball to prove to NBA teams that he is worth millions of dollars.

If he cannot show up at this point with so much money on the line, how wise is it to worth investing guaranteed money in him? Even if he succeeds at some juncture because of his talent, he does not seem like a reliable target for any sort of max contract.

He has an excellent theoretical upside, but extremely slim odds of reaching it. He has some of the most toxic intangibles of recent draft memory, and disappointment seems inevitable with him.

 

35. Jevon Carter 6’2″ PG, West Virginia

Carter is a tiny point guard (6’1.5″ with 6’4.25″ wingspan) who isn’t a natural at running the offense, as he didn’t play full time PG for West Virginia until his senior year at age 22.

But he is an absolute pest on defense, rebounds much better than his size, and developed into a good shooter making 82% FT and 39% 3P in his final 2 seasons of college.

Carter is in a bad mold but has rare strengths that may enable him to succeed in a Patrick Beverley type role.

36. Kevin Hervey 6’8″ SF/PF, UT Arlington

Hervey is a prototypical stretch 4, as he has a monster 7.3’5″ wingspan and can rebound, pass, handle, and shoot.

He is not that athletic and there are questions about how well he can defend as a pro, but if he finds a defensive niche he is an ideal role playing big wing.

 

37. Rawle Alkins, 6’4″ SG, Arizona

Alkins is slightly undersized for a SG, but makes up for it with 6’8.75″ wingspan, a strong frame, and good athleticism. He has a good 3 +D skill set.

38. Trevon Duval 6’3″ PG, Duke

Duval has a broken shot, is highly turnover prone, and has a bizarrely low rebound rate for a player with his physical tools.

But he has good length and athleticism, sees the court well, and at age 19 still has a prayer of putting things together to become a decent pro. He is likely going to bust, but if everything goes well he has more upside than most 2nd rounders.

39. Shake Milton 6’6″ SG/SF, SMU

Milton can shoot, handle, and pass and has an excellent 7’0.75″ wingspan, but is extremely slow. He will be banking hard on his long wingspan helping overcome his athletic issues as a pro.

40. Alize Johnson 6’8″ SF/PF, Missouri St.

Johnson is an interesting prospect as a wing convert. His short arms (6.8.75″) prevented him from getting steals and blocks in college, but he moves his feet well enough to possibly convert to a big wing. He can rebound, pass, and sort of shoot which makes him a compelling flier.

 

41. Xavier Cooks, 6’8″ SF/PF, Winthrop

Cooks likely isn’t getting draft because he is old, skinny, and inefficient with a funky shooting form.

But he is a unicorn point forward who can handle, pass, rebound, and protect the rim with sneaky good athleticism.

 

42. Melvin Frazier 6’6″ SF, Tulane

Frazier has super long arms at 7’1.75″ and is a pretty good athlete, but was a complete disaster offensively until his junior season at Tulane. He never made a discernible impact on Tulane’s success in on/off splits, which is a concern for an upperclassman on a bad mid-major team.

But he has NBA tools and a workable jump shot, maybe an NBA team can squeeze more value out of him than he showed in college.

 

43. Vince Edwards 6’8″ SF/PF, Purdue

Edwards is a big wing who can rebound, pass, handle, and shoot. He may not have the athleticism or defense to fit in the NBA, but he led Purdue to a boatload of wins over his 4 years and was a criminal exclusion from the combine.

44. Yante Maten, 6’8″ PF, Georgia

Yante is likely too slow and unathletic to find an NBA niche, but his strength, smarts, and shooting ability give him a chance. His excellent IQ enabled him to be a very good defensive player in NCAA, so it is plausible he overachieves his expected defensive performance in the NBA as well.

45. Chandler Hutchison 6’7″ SF/PF Boise State

Hutchison has a long 7’2″ wingspan and is a pretty good athlete who can get to the rim and finish, is a willing passer, and a developing shooter. It is easy to see why he has first round hype.

But he was a complete disaster on offense until his junior year. In his first two seasons he was inefficient on low volume and hardly attempted 3’s. And he still has a sloppy handle, is prone to turnovers, has bad touch on floaters, is not a natural passer, and is not a defensive stopper either.

He has a chance of success as a pro, but his feel and skill level may be too far behind for a 22 year old with good but not great physical tools.

46. Hamidou Diallo, 6’6″ SG/SF, Kentucky

Diallo showed very little to get excited about at Kentucky, but he has long arms at 6’11.5″ and is a solid athlete. Maybe an actual NBA coach can make better use of him than John Calipari did.

 

 

47. Gary Clark 6’8″ SF/PF, Cincinnati

Clark was arguably the best NCAA player in the nation, as he was a hyperefficient garbageman for an excellent Cincinnati team.

His NBA translation is enigmatic because he is wing size, but likely lacks the quickness to defend wings or handling ability to be an offensive wing.

Clark may have enough basketball IQ to find an NBA niche, but he turns 24 in November so he has limited time to figure things out.

48. Keenan Evans 6’3″ PG, Texas Tech

Evans is a neat flier. He is a senior who is still 21 on draft night, has decent PG size, good athleticism, good shooter, and a good slasher who draws a ton of free throws.

He is not a pure PG and did not rack up many assists at Texas Tech, but had a low turnover rate, and could easily become a rotation guard in the NBA.

 

49. Aaron Holiday 6’1″ PG, UCLA

Holiday is a good shooter with a 6’7.5″ wingspan, solid athleticism, and flashes of creation, defense, and passing. But he is nevertheless below average at all three, and for a 21 year old 6’1″ prospect that isn’t good enough to succeed as a pro.

There is some chance he develops into a Mo Williams level low end starter or bench sparkplug, but most 6’1″ players fail and it is not great to bet on one who lacks exceptional skill, athleticism, and feel for the game.

50. DJ Hogg, 6’9″ SF/PF Texas A&M

Hogg is a big wing who can shoot and pass and may have had his talent suppressed at Texas A&M playing in huge lineups with a bad PG for a bad coach.

He is limited as an athlete and shot creator, but has a good role playing skill set.

51. Moe Wagner, 7’0″ PF/C, Michigan

Wagner is tall with an excellent shot and not much else to write home about.

He is a decent athlete who has flashes of ability to create off the dribble, but isn’t much of a passer and is soft inside as he struggles to stop opposing bigs in the paint and corral offensive rebounds.

His one saving grace is that he may have good enough feet to hold his own on switches. But he is definitely not a rim protector and is fairly one dimensional on offense.

52. Issuf Sanon 6’4″ PG/SG, Olimpija Ljubljana

Sanon is one of the youngest players in the draft and a pretty good athlete, but is more or less a pure gamble on youth. Right now he has the physical tools to be disruptive on defense, but is a complete disaster on offense and has a long way to go to become NBA caliber.

53. Ray Spalding 6’10” C, Louisville

Spalding fits an interesting mold as a skinny center, who makes up for his lack of height and weight with an excellent 7’4.75″ wingspan and good athleticism + mobility.

He lacks the height, girth, and IQ to be a true impact player on defense, but could be a switchable rotation big who finishes lobs and putbacks on offense.

54. Tony Carr 6’4″ PG, Penn State

Tony Carr is similar to Shamet– good PG size, passing, and shooting, but may be too slow and lacking in strength to survive in the NBA. He isn’t on Shamet’s level as a shooter, but may atone for it with slightly better rebounding and passing.

55. Desonta Bradford 6’4″ SG, East Tennessee St.

At this point the options on mainstream radar are so painfully limited, why not take an athletic mid-major star who is only slightly undersized for combo guard. If his shot comes along he can be a solid rotation guy.

56. Khyri Thomas 6’4″ SG, Creighton

Khyri is an undersized SG but makes up for it with long arms with a 6’10.5″ wingspan and good basketball IQ enabled him to be Big East defensive player of the year for back to back seasons.

But he was a dubious selection for that award, as Creighton’s defense was better with him off the floor than on over his three seasons. This isn’t an indictment of Khyri’s defense so much it is the ability of any 6’4″ non-elite athlete to make a major defensive impact at even the NCAA level.

Maybe he can find a niche as a 3 + D shooting guard, but his shot is merely good not great and he is sorely limited as a ball handler for a 22 year old guard prospect. More likely than not his offensive badness with outweigh his defensive goodness.

57. Devonte Graham 6’2″ PG, Kansas

Graham is a combo guard in a PG body. It is fairly disconcerting that he was a low usage role player until his 23 year old senior season, when he took on a bigger role and shot 39% on 2 pointers.

He is a good shooter with good intangibles, and there is some chance he finds a pro niche. But he has strictly bench player upside.

 

58. Jerome Robinson 6’5″ SG, Boston College

Robinson has mediocre length and athleticism, is bad defensively, and was horribly inefficient on offense until his junior season.

As a junior he made a major shooting leap and improved his %’s across the board. He also shot well off the dribble, ranking 91% percentile in synergy points per possession. But even a slight regression toward his prior performance and he isn’t nearly good enough on offense to justify his defense.

Teams are giving him too much credit for improving over his career, and not enough concern for lacking the natural talent to even vaguely resemble a prospect until he turned 21. He will be a major mistake in round 1.

59. Zach Thomas, 6’7″ SF/PF, Bucknell

Thomas is a big wing who can rebound, shoot, pass, and draws a ton of free throws. His physical profile is decent for a low major senior, and he could easily stick as a 3 + D wing.

60. Tryggvi Hlanison, 7’1″ C, Iceland

Need a big, warm body to cozy up to at the end of round 2? If so then Trygg is your guy!

He does typical big person things and is not overly skilled or young as he turns 21 in October. But he may just just agile enough to fit in the NBA, thus his appeal as fringe draftable.

61. Theo Pinson 6’6″ SF/PF, North Carolina

Pinson is a 6’6″ swiss army knife wing who does a bit of everything. He may not be able to shoot well enough to stick in the NBA, but is a semi-interesting role player if his 3P% catches up to his FT%.

62. Desi Rodriguez 6’5″ SG, Seton Hall

Desi is a smooth wing with a nice frame and 6’10” wingspan who can do a bit of everything with a role player skill set. He’s a sort of jack of all trades master of none, but has a decent shot of sticking.

63. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk 6’8″ SF/PF Kansas

Svi Rex almost impressively has a wingspan 3 inches shorter than his height.

He is a knockdown shooter who is otherwise sorely limited offensively, but has enough height and mobility to develop into a 3 + D if he can develop his ball skills. He only turned 21 the week before the draft, so he has a glimmer of hope of doing so.

 

64. Jalen Brunson 6’2″ PG, Villanova

Brunson is a tough PG who can shoot and played with good efficiency for Villanova. But his physical tools are sorely limited, and it shows in his lack of rebounds, steals, and blocks. Further, he is a good but not elite passer and there is only so much scoring impact for a player with Brunson’s physical limitations.

Maybe he sticks as a backup PG, but his upside is badly limited.

65. Grayson Allen 6’4″ SG, Duke

Allen is a good athlete in the open floor and shoots very well, and that’s about all he has to offer as a prospect.

He is slightly undersized for a SG, does not move well laterally, and struggles to explode in traffic which is why he was relegated to a spot up shooting role as a senior. He will likely get torched on defense without providing much use on offense beyond pure shooting, and would be a terrible mistake to take in round 1.

66. Bryant Crawford, 6’3″ PG Wake Forest

Crawford has solid PG tools and can do a bit of everything with nice shooting upside as he made 83% FT’s as a sophomore and 87% as a junior.

67. Justin Jackson 6’7″ SF/PF, Maryland

Jackson has a workable jumpshot and his 7’3″ wingspan and strong frame give him a clear niche as a 3 + D wing. But he isn’t that athletic or creative offensively, and he struggles to finish in the paint.

He has some chance of sticking, but will be limited as a somewhat ordinary role player.

 

68. Jordan McLaughlin 6’1″ PG, USC

McLaughlin is an undersized PG who makes up for it with speed, vision, shooting, and pesky defense. He has a chance to be a Fred VanVleet-ish undrafted steal.

 

69. Brandon McCoy 7’0″ C, UNLV

McCoy is the dinosaur of the draft, as a 7’0″ post-up big man. But he was a 5* guy who is an excellent rebounder and showed some shooting promise with 73% FT. There is likely some path where he turns into a serviceable stretch 5.

 

70. Daryl Macon 6’3″ PG/SG, Arkansas

Macon is a combo guard who is nearly identical to Aaron Holiday as a prospect. He is slightly older and less natural at PG, but makes up for it by being a better shooter. Why waste a 1st rounder on Holiday when you can get the same thing as a UDFA?

Others

After this there aren’t many interesting players left. Among players currently in ESPN’s mock who were excluded:

Malik Newman (#47) is a one dimensional shooter in a PG body.

Chimezie Metu (#52) is PF sized and soft inside without the skill or IQ to be interesting.

Rodions Kurucs (#38) can barely get minutes in Europe and he is already 20.

Arnoldas Kubolka (#59) is a painfully one dimensional shooter

Kostas Antetokounmpo (#58) is an abomination at basketball and would be nowhere near draft radar if not for his last name.

A few more UDFA stabs in the dark: Chima Moneke, William Lee, Jaylen Adams, Ajdin Penava, Darius Thompson, Chris Cokley, Tyler Rawson, Jaylen Barford, Malik Pope, Dakota Mathias, Braian Angola-Rodas

 

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2018 Preview: Is Michael Porter a Future NBA Star?

24 Saturday Jun 2017

Posted by deanondraft in Big Boards, Scouting Reports

≈ 3 Comments

Tags

Collin Sexton, Luka Doncic, Michael Porter Jr.

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Now that the 2017 draft is over, attention shifts to 2018 where Michael Porter Jr. is battling Luka Doncic for #1 overall, where league executives are allegedly split. I decided to get a taste of Michael Porter Jr. by watching the Nike Hoop Summit where he led team USA with 19 points.

Michael Porter Jr. Scouting Report

Porter is a 6’10” knockdown shooter who rebounds well and has decent athleticism. So it is easy to see why he is labeled as a possible #1, as that baseline of skill makes it sound like he has Kevin Durant upside.

But his warts are apparent in watching him play. He is not particularly smooth, explosive, or advanced with the handle so he struggled to get by defenders and often drove directly into the crowd and hoisted some awkward looking shots. On several occasions he was able to flail and draw free throws, but it appears that and pulling up for jumpers are the only creation he can muster off the dribble.

He does not have good passing instincts, as while he is a willing passer it is with the objective of moving the ball rather than setting up a teammate. For all of the goodness that his shooting presents on offense, his shaky instincts shown in his slashing and passing are going to detract from his shooting goodness.

Defensively he has the size and mobility to make an occasional play, but his awareness is not great as he had lapses where he got caught watching the ball or out of position. On the upside has has great height and moves well and was able to use his tools be useful at times, so it is difficult to judge his defense as either good or bad based on this game. But based on his limited instincts he does not appear to be a stopper on this end and has clear downside.

Overall Sentiment

Porter strongly reminisces of my first time viewing Andrew Wiggins, where it stunned me that people viewed him as a tanking candidate. They have a number of marked similarities as prospects, as Porter essentially has two inches of height and better shooting in lieu of Wiggins’ otherworldly athleticism.

This was just one game, and I cannot yet rule out that he will be good. But elite stars normally stand out to my eye immediately: Joel Embiid and Lonzo Ball were love at first sight, and Karl Anthony Towns, Ben Simmons, and Markelle Fultz were extremely attractive at first blush (even if I have my doubts about the latter two, their talent is undeniable).

Porter is in a class with Andrew Wiggins of putting me in shock that people can look at a prospect like this and somehow believe he is better than prospects like Luka Doncic or Lonzo Ball. I would bet every dollar I own that he is not.

I am not going to call him a likely bust based on a one game eye test, as Andrew Wiggins could have been pretty good if he was able to develop better from his rookie year. But it is difficult to argue that the hype machine be given any benefit of the doubt to treat Porter as anything remotely special this early.

No Proof of Goodness Means More Downside

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The fact of the matter is that the draft hype machine has not exactly been nailing NCAA top 3’s a year ahead of time lately

2014: Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle
2015: Jahlil Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay, Stanley Johnson
2016: Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere, Jaylen Brown
2017: Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Josh Jackson

8 of those 12 have playing at least one NBA season, and all look disappointing relative to hype. Simmons, Tatum, and Jackson are the only ones with clear star potential, and none of them are guarantees.

If you randomly select a player from this pile, he is more likely than not to be an ordinary, meh NBA player. It is extremely difficult to predict NBA success without observation vs. NCAA or professional competition. Intuitively Porter, Ayton, and Bamba do not seem any better than prior early top 3’s, and are each more likely to be below average NBA players than good starters.

How Does Porter Compare to 2017?

Everybody who thinks Porter should go #1 in 2017 is crazy. It would be terrible if any of Porter, Ayton, or Bamba were chosen in this year’s top 6, as it was a especially good top 6 (Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Jackson, Fox, Isaac) who all showed strong potential vs. NCAA competition compared to 19 y/o’s who have been feasting on 17 and 18 y/o’s.

I would also take Real Madrid star Luka Doncic over all 3 prospects combined, as he has been one of the best players in the second best professional league behind the NBA, all at a younger age than these guys as high school seniors. It may seem crazy now, but in a few years it will not.

I know these are many piping hot takes at once, but if nothing else they will be fun to re-visit in a few years. On to the rankings:

Tier 1: Basketball God

1. Luka Doncic 6’8″ Real Madrid

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I still need to watch him before singing his praises too loudly, but he is 6’8″, athletic, super skilled, and smart and has clear GOAT potential. It is difficult to see him failing, and there is no reasonable argument that anybody else should even sniff #1.

Tier 2: Regular Basketball Players

2. Collin Sexton, 6’2″ Freshman, Alabama

Sexton is the only player in the Hoop Summit who glowed to my eye. He is incredibly athletic, smooth, and shifty, and has strong potential as a slasher. He also showed legitimate passing and vision, and can be a pest on defense and was willing to battle with bigs for rebounds.

It is difficult to get too excited for a 6’2″ player this far from the draft, and Sexton does seem to be a risk of taking poor shots and over gambling on defense. But he is the only player in the Hoop Summit who looked like a possible future star, so he gets my #2 slot.

3. Wendell Carter, 6’10” Freshman, Duke

Carter was more quiet than I had hoped in the Hoop Summit, but it is still easy to see him being good. He has a 7’3″+ wingspan which gives him potential to play center in the NBA, and he seems to be above average at everything.

The main thing holding him back from top 3 hype is lack of elite explosiveness, but he is a good, well rounded basketball player who is almost a year younger than each of Ayton, Bamba, and Porter.

4. DeAndre Ayton, 7’0″ Freshman, Arizona

Ayton did not play in the Hoop Summit, so my eyes have yet to qualify him. I have my doubts about him as he has a reputation for not caring a ton, but he has monster height and a 7’5″ wingspan with real talent, so I will see how he looks for Arizona before passing firm judgment.

5. Mohamed Bamba, 7’0″ Freshman, Texas

Bamba has a 7’9″ wingspan and projects to be a force defensively, and he did look impressive on that end at the Hoop Summit. Unfortunately, he looked like a zero offensively as he cannot handle and his touch around the rim looked bad.

On the upside he can make FT’s and the announcers were saying his touch is normally good, so if he can at least make shots offensively he has upside to be a Rudy Gobert or Tyson Chandler type.

6. Michael Porter Jr., 6’10” Freshman, Missouri

As I have detailed, I do not believe he is great. Maybe he is nevertheless good, but at this juncture there is no compelling reason to believe that he is anything other than an ordinary top 10 prospect.

That said this is a low confidence opinion, and it will be easier to have a grasp on him when he plays for Missouri. By draft time it is possible I will move him up into the top 3, or he may be out of the top 10. It could go either way.

7. Ethan Happ, 6’9″ Junior, Wisconsin

Happ hardly has any draft hype, as he is only ranked 36th on DraftExpress. The knock on him is that he is a traditional white PF who cannot shoot and lacks explosive athleticism, so he is getting overlooked as a draft prospect.

But people are wrong to overlook him, as he is a stud at everything but shooting. He may not be a leaper but he moves his feet well, and at 6’9″ he is an elite handler, passer, rebounder, and defensive player who excels at everything except scoring from a distance. At age 21 with a 57% FT you have to be worried about his shot, and it is genuinely a major wart.

But given how elite the rest of his profile is, I would happily gamble on it all working out.

8. DeAnthony Melton, 6’4″ Sophomore, USC

DeAnthony Melton completely stuffed the statsheet as an 18 year old freshman, as he racked up rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. He has exceptional instincts to go with great length and quickness, and has the foundation to be a star combo guard.

The downside is that he still has a long way to go to fit in offensively as he posted just a 33rd percentile half court efficiency on low usage as a freshman. He still is not a reliable 3P shooter at 28% and he cannot yet create against a set defense.

If Melton makes a major offensive leap as a sophomore he has star upside, otherwise he is an intriguing role player.

While Melton and Happ have their share of flaws, they also have unique strengths to help them overcome. Don’t be surprised when one of the duo is a better pro than Michael Porter Jr.

9. Robert Williams, 6’9″ Sophomore, Texas A&M

The Aggies had no point guard this past season and all of their returners badly regressed. Now that they have help at the position, Williams who excels at moving off the ball and finishing may see a big sophomore breakout.

10. Miles Bridges, 6’6″ Sophomore, Michigan St.

Bridges is smooth and athletic, and coming off a good freshman season for Michigan State where he did a bit of everything.

The only worry with Bridges is that his dimensions are a bit weak as he last measured 6’6.25″ with a 6’8.75″ wingspan. Given that he also had a mediocre efficiency, he will have extra worry about his ability to be an efficient NBA player without better combine measurements.

11. Jarred Vanderbilt, 6’9″ Freshman, Kentucky

Vanderbilt was the surprise star of the Hoop Summit, and he has strong feel for the game with excellent rebounding and passing. He also is able to make plays on defense and is one of the younger members of the class having recently turned 18.

His downside is that he is a poor shooter, and does not look like an elite defensive stopper to make his shot worth stomaching. But I would nevertheless not be surprised if he emerges as the best freshman in the class.

12. Jaren Jackson Jr., 6’10” Freshman, Michigan St.

Jackson is still just 17 and has good physical tools for a big, and made a number of impressive finishes and defensive plays in the Hoop Summit. He also has traces of an outside shot, and is another player who has potential to climb my board by the draft. While the freshman class lacks a likely star, there is a significant cluster of players that have a chance of shining in NCAA.

I only have Jackson 12th because he appears to be a role player with questionable instincts, but he could just as easily be argued to be much higher.

13. Troy Brown, 6’6″ Freshman, Oregon

Brown is the super role player of the class, as he has a 6’11” wingspan and made some impressive passes for a wing in the Hoop Summit. He also competed and moved his feet well defensively and at 17 is one of the youngest players in the class.

He is a prototypical 3 + D wing, as his only weaknesses are lack of elite athleticism and scoring ability. This does inhibit his upside, but if teams pay this too much attention he could be a steal in the back end of the lottery.

Overall I believe the freshman class should be seen as 5 good but not great prospects battling for #2 (Sexton, Carter, Ayton, Bamba, Porter) with Vanderbilt, Jackson, and Brown right behind them as role players with sneaky potential.

Tier 3: The Rest
14. Mikal Bridges, 6’8″ Junior, Villanova
15. Bruce Brown, 6’4″ Sophomore, Miami FL
16. Andrew Jones, 6’4″ Sophomore, Texas
17. Hamidou Diallo, 6’5″ Freshman, Kentucky
18. Emmanuel Akot, 6’8″ Freshman, Arizona
19. Mitchell Robinson, 6’11” Freshman, Western Kentucky
20. Markis McDuffie, 6’8″ Junior, Wichita St.
21. Jacob Evans, 6’6″ Junior, Cincinnati
22. Rawle Alkins, 6’5″ Sophomore, Arizona
23. Tyler Hall, 6’4″ Junior, Montana St.
24. Shamorie Ponds, 6’0″ Sophomore, St. John’s
25. Gary Clark, 6’7″ Senior, Cincinnati
26. Trent Forrest, 6’5″ Sophomore, Florida St.
27. Bryant Crawford, 6’3″ Junior, Wake Forest
28. John Petty, 6’6″ Freshman, Alabama
29. Kevin Huerter, 6’6″ Sophomore, Maryland
30. Kevin Hervey, 6’7″ Senior, UT Arlington

2017 Mega Board

22 Thursday Jun 2017

Posted by deanondraft in Big Boards

≈ 4 Comments

Tier 1: Star

1. Lonzo Ball, 6’6″ PG UCLA

Ball is a basketball genius who has elite PG size and skill and could be one the best passer in NBA history. He also is an outlier of offensive efficiency, both at the individual and team level.

There are doubts about his ability to get to the rim off the dribble, and it is a valid weakness. I believe his strengths are so outlier good that they will comfortably outweigh his flaws, and he is the clear #1 in the class.

Tier 2: Possible Stars

2. Markelle Fultz, 6’5″ PG Washington

Fultz is a do it all scorer with great vision and instincts and a 6’10” wingspan that gives him James Harden-esque upside. The only flag is that his basketball IQ and defense are not elite, and his team woefully underperformed for a major conference team with a #1 overall pick.

He could be really great, or he could be an empty calories volume scorer.

3. Jonathan Isaac, 6’11” SF/PF, Florida St.

Isaac is a unicorn of elite perimeter defense, rim protection, and rebounding who also is great at playing off the ball offensively with good shooting, cutting, and finishing.

His major flaw is that he is extremely limited off the dribble, and also is an average passer. But he could be an elite role player that fits well in a heavy switching defense that is becoming so prevalent in the NBA.

4. Jayson Tatum, 6’8″ SF/PF, Duke

Tatum offers passable PF size and SF quickness, and fits the mold for a small PF that is becoming the standard in the modern NBA. He has potential be a two way star, as he can create his own shot, passes decently, and his 85% FT gives him elite shooting upside for a player that can switch onto multiple positions and make plays defensively.

But he has a number of minor flaws that could preclude him from being good: he lacks explosiveness, a strong handle, and he is often stripped or blocked and plays inconsistent defense. He could also be below average on both ends.

5. Josh Jackson, 6’8 SF/PF, Kansas

Jackson is the ultimate role player, as he rebounds, defends, passes, moves well without the ball, finishes, and is incredibly competitive. He is also 6’8″ and an explosive athlete, and with good intangibles seems likely to be a useful NBA player.

But does he have star upside? He is sophomore aged with an ugly hitch in his shot and 57% FT, a loose handle, and short arms and tiny frame that may limit his ability to guard PF’s. He has clear limitations offensively and his body may preclude him from being a beast defensively. His star upside is limited, although his competitive spirit gives him some small chance of being great.

6. De’Aaron Fox, 6’3″ PG, Kentucky

Fox is as super quick, super smooth slasher who gets wherever he wants to go and finishes well. Of all of the PG’s in the class, he is easily the most prolific at creating his own shot at the rim against set defenses. He also is a good passer and a pest defensively, and has a good baseline to become a 2 way PG.

But his big flaw is that he cannot shoot, making just 25% of his scant 3PA. His 74% FT gives him some hope for future improvement, but he struggled badly off the dribble and his shot clearly needs work. Also his thin frame makes it unlikely he can guard most SG’s, and even though he has upside on defense he is not a lock to be a positive on that end either.

7. Lauri Markkanen, 7’0″ PF, Arizona

Markkanen shot 83.5% FT and 42% 3P for Arizona, and the only NBA 7 footer with a higher career FT% is Dirk Nowitzki. Markkanen is also smooth and fluid with flashes of ability to create his own shot off the dribble and he holds his own on perimeter switches. He is somewhat one dimensional, but being a non-statue makes it worth wondering how much an NBA team can build on his unicorn combination of height and shooting.

His downside is that he is not long or explosive and is a bit passive. He had anemic block and steal rates defensively, mediocre rebounds, and a surprisingly moderate usage given his offensive talent. He also posted a low assist rate, and will need to develop his passing to be more complete offensively.

The traces of Dirk cannot be ignored, although he is far more likely to mirror players like Ryan Anderson and Channing Frye. This is nevertheless useful as 7’0″ with elite shooting gravity are few and far between, so it is worth gambling on the his rare intersection and seeing what happens.

8. Zach Collins, 7’0″ C, Gonzaga

Collins was the #28 recruit in the class who came out of nowhere to be an elite bench player for the Zags. He scores inside and out and can rebound and block shots, which is a nice combination of strengths.

His passing instincts are limited and he does not project to be elite defensively, but he nevertheless offers an intriguing gamble in the back end of the lottery.

Tier 3: Fun Gambles

9. OG Anunoby, 6’8″ PF, Indiana

Anunoby is the most intriguing upperclassmen, as he has similar measurements and athleticism to Kawhi Leonard and monster steal and block numbers to imply strong defensive upside for a prospect who is still just 19.

The only question is whether he can play offense. He is an elite finisher with 65% 2P in 2 years at Indiana and improved his passing as a sophomore, but his medium usage and 52% FT make him a possible liability on offense. And in spite of his defensive upside, he is still not consistent enough to be a guarantee to be great like Kawhi.

He is coming off an ACL tear that may hurt his stock but really should not factor in heavily.

10. Dennis Smith Jr. 6’3″ PG, NC State

Smith checks all of the boxes for a star PG: handle, athleticism, quickness, strength, the ability to score inside and out and the vision to rack up assists.

The only problem is that all of his stat stuffing and athleticism failed to add up to wins for NC State, as he struggled to be an efficient floor general and played exceptionally lazy defense.

I personally do not believe he will live up to his theoretical upside.

 

11. Donovan Mitchell, 6’3″ SG, Louisville

Mitchell is the prototypical 3 + D combo guard. His 6’10” wingspan, quickness, and competitiveness gives him the potential to defend both guard positions at a high level. He pairs this with a solid shot as he made 35% 3P and 81% FT as a sophomore. He does not have the ball skills to be a lead guard, but is decent enough across the board to be a positive player overall.

Mitchell is not likely to be a star, but he has great odds of being a useful player who fits in a wide range of lineups.

12. Malik Monk, 6’3″ PG/SG, Kentucky

Monk is a hyperathletic shooter who can make shots of any difficulty both off the dribble or spot up. And he flashed a bit of passing ability, and it is possible that he has some PG skills that were masked by sharing the backcourt with non-shooting PG’s De’Aaron Fox and Isaiah Briscoe.

That said, he doesn’t rebound, he doesn’t defend, he can’t get to the rim against a half court defense, and he may not have the vision to be a full time floor general. Those are a lot of strikes for a one dimensional shooter, and without surprise floor general skills he is unlikely to be more than a Lou Williams type.

13. Harry Giles, 6’10” C, Duke

Giles is coming off back to back ACL tears and an additional knee surgery that caused him to miss the early part of Duke’s season. Then he was a disappointment in the 300 minutes he played for the Blue Devils, as he looked lost on the floor.

But his medical reports are allegedly better than expected, and he was supposed to be a candidate for #1 overall before all of the injury noise. His instincts looked bad but it could be a product of rust and shaky confidence post-injury. Given that Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan both became all-stars without stellar instincts, is it plausible to believe Giles can as well.

He has stellar tools for a big man and while he has risk of both injury and poor skill and IQ, it’s worth the upside to gamble on him and see what happens once the prizes of the draft are off the board.

14. John Collins, 6’9 PF, Wake Forest

Collins stuffed the statsheet at Wake Forest with points and rebounds, as he posted a monster 36 PER as a 19 year old sophomore. He also has potential to develop a 3 point shot and pretty good athleticism, and his offensive upside is good for a PF.

That said his poor instincts and short arms caused his passing and defense to both be poor. Collins is a weird prospect with pointed strengths and weaknesses, and given his youth I like the idea of gambling on a polarizing weirdo in the back of the lottery.

15. Frank Ntilikina, 6’5″ PG/SG, France

Ntilikina boasts elite intangibles, IQ, and monster 7’0″ wingspan, and projects to be a 3 + D guard/wing.

He is listed as a PG as he reportedly has great vision, although he lacks the ball skills or burst to get to the rim and finish. And it’s not clear that he is great at either shooting or defense, as stat models are not particularly fond. That said he is incredibly young and as his adds bulk to his thin frame, he could develop into a useful rotation player.

Tier 4: Rotation Players:

Note that everybody in this tier is on a similar level

16. Caleb Swanigan, 6’9″ PF, Purdue

Caleb Swanigan is the Kyle Anderson of this year’s draft, as he has an elite statistical profile with gaudy rebound, assist, and scoring totals with good %’s from all levels.

But he had poor steal and block rates and is undersized for center and under quick for PF. He may not be able to fit on to an NBA defense without getting roasted.

But nobody else has nearly his offense and rebounding strengths, and he did manage to anchor the #23 defense as the starting center for Purdue. Maybe he continues to improve his body as he ages and just finds a way to fit and and make it worth all

17. Ivan Rabb, 6’10” PF/C, California

I don’t know why, I just like Rabb. He’s tall, smooth, and good at all of the role-player things.

He struggled to be the centerpiece for a dreadful California offense as a sophomore, but he fits best playing off the ball in the NBA as a cutter, rebounder, and pick and roll finisher. He is a former top 5 recruit who would have been a top 10 pick last year, and I feel that teams are overreacting to his sophomore performance.

18. Josh Hart, 6’5″ SG, Villanova

Hart is just a bit short of being a real prospect in terms of size, quickness, and athleticism. But he is not particularly weak in any of those areas, and he was an elite player for a Villanova program that was incredibly successful in his 4 seasons there.

He does a little bit of everything and has great IQ for making winning plays. He just feels like he is going to be a decent NBA rotation player, even if he cannot be a star.

19. Jawun Evans, 6’0″ PG, Oklahoma State

Evans did everything for the #1 offense in the NCAA as a sophomore. His lack of size and explosiveness prevents him from being a high upside prospect, but his length, quickness, vision, and basketball IQ gives him a chance at surprising as a better than expected floor general.

20. Ike Anigbogu, 6’10” C, UCLA

Anigbogu is a giant pile of tools in its fetal form as you are gambling on his monster 7’6″ wingspan to go with great length and quickness in the youngest player in the draft.

Anigbogu is a complete and utter mystery box. Right now is completely inept on offense, but his combination of tools gives him immense defensive upside. He’s a fine gamble somewhere in the late first.

21. Derrick White, 6’4″ PG/SG, Colorado

This division 2 transfer came out of nowhere to be a star for Colorado last year, and he can do a bit of everything: shoot, pass, get to the rim, and is an exceptional shot blocker for a guard.

At 23 he is on the older side of things but he does enough things well to be one of the more attractive late 1st/early 2nd gambles.

22. TJ Leaf, 6’10 PF, UCLA

Leaf is a skilled PF who does everything offensively, as he is a great cutter who scores inside and out and moves the ball well. But he also does nothing well defensively, as he lacks the length and athleticism to be more than a liability on this end.

It’s hard to say how much credit Lonzo Ball deserves for his draft hype, but he does have a nice skill level for a 6’10” player and that alone is worth a late 1st flier.

23. Frank Jackson 6’3″ SG, Duke

Jackson just turned 19 shortly before the draft and has good scoring upside for a young player. He is a good shooter and an athlete who can get to the rim, and his 6’7.5 wingspan gives him a chance to guard SG’s.

That said he is still in the awkward state of lacking vision to play PG and too small to defend SG’s, and projects to be a bit one dimensional in the pros.

24. Jordan Bell, 6’9″ PF, Oregon

Bell is a fascinating defense weapon, as his athleticism and quickness give him potential to be a versatile force as he is an great shot blocker that also racks up steals and rebounds.

The downside is that he is 22 years old and limited offensively. He mustered a 70% FT as a junior after 51% his first 2 years, so if he can build on that to somehow make 3’s he is an exciting piece, even if it is a long shot to happen.

25. Luke Kennard, 6’5″ SG, Duke

Kennard is a great shooter with excellent toughness, IQ, and intangibles, but is that really enough to overcome his weaknesses?

He has a poor 6’5″ wingspan and lacks the quickness or athleticism to get to the rim, and he also gets roasted on defense. Outside of shooting and moving the ball within the offense it’s not clear what value he offers.

He could surprise and become a decent role player like fellow Duke alum JJ Redick, but he does not have the upside to justify a lottery pick.

26. DJ Wilson, 6’10 PF/C, Michigan

Wilson offers good length, shooting, and efficient offense for a big. He also has solid quickness to switch onto perimeter players.

On the downside he is a poor rebounder for his height, and has a low usage rate and pedestrian steals and blocks. He has some role player potential for his tools and efficiency, but limitations are there.

27. Jarrett Allen, 6’10” C, Texas

Allen just turned 19 and has a monster 7’5.25″ wingspan to go with a pretty good interior scoring ability for Texas. He posted solid scoring numbers in spite of having no PG in a disastrous offense.

But he also seems to have broken instincts, as he posted an awful assist to turnover ratio and anemic steal and block rates for a player with his length.

There is enough hope for Allen to make his talent worth a gamble, but it is hard to ignore the fact that he profiles similar to a poor man’s Jahlil Okafor.

28. Bam Adebayo, 6’9″ PF, Kentucky

Bam offers interior scoring and the quickness to guard multiple positions.

That said he is undersized for center and his steal and block rates cast doubt on whether he actually can be a defensive weapon.

29. Jonah Bolden, 6’10” PF, Radnicki BAsket

Bolden was really bad as a sophomore for UCLA and then really good in a season in the Adriatic league. I have no idea what he is but he is tall, can make 3’s, and has quickness to switch so he could be decent.

30. Tony Bradley, 6’10” PF, North Carolina

Bradley is long, smart, and an offensive rebounding machine. He lacks exceptional skill or athleticism, but could be a nice rotation big.

31. Tyler Lydon, 6’10” PF, Syracuse
32. Isaiah Hartenstein, 6’11” PF/C, Zalgiris
33. Anzejs Pasecniks, 7’0″ C, Gran Canaria
34. Sindarius Thornwell, 6’5″ SG, South Carolina
35. Monte Morris, 6’3″ PG, Iowa St.
36. Kyle Kuzma, 6’9 SF/PF, Utah
37. Semi Ojeleye, 6’6″ SF, SMU
38. Justin Patton, 6’11” C, Creighton
39. Cameron Oliver, 6’9″ PF, Nevada
40. Justin Jackson, 6’8″ SF/PF, North Carolina
41. Alec Peters, 6’9″ PF, Valparaiso
42. Johnathan Motley, 6’9″ PF, Baylor
43. PJ Dozier, 6’5″ PG/SG, South Carolina
44. Sterling Brown, 6’6″ SG/SF, SMU
45. Dillon Brooks, 6’6″ SG/SF, Oregon
46. Thomas Bryant, 6’9″ PF/C, Indiana
47. Edmond Sumner, 6’5″ PG, Xavier
48. Terrance Ferguson, 6’8″ SG/SF, Australia
49. Jonathan Jeanne, 7’2″ C, Nancy

I had Jeanne as a top 15 pick before news of his Marfan syndrome. Now I’m just guessing where he belongs– but obviously his value is crushed.

50. Mathias Lesort, 6’9″ PF, Nanterre
51. Nigel Williams-Goss, 6’4″ PG, Gonzaga
52. Jeremy Morgan, 6’5″ SG, Northern Iowa
53. Luke Kornet, 7’0″ C, Vanderbilt
54. Davon Reed, 6’6″ SF, Miami FL
55. Wesley Iwundu, 6’6″ SG, Kansas St.
56. Devin Robinson 6’8″ SF/PF, Florida
57. Jake Wiley, 6’8 SF/PF, Eastern Washington
58. Reggie Upshaw, 6’7″ SF/PF, Middle Tennessee
59. Derrick Walton, 6’0″ PG, Michigan
60. Charles Cooke, 6’4″ SF, Dayton

Just Missed Cut: LJ Peak, Malcolm Hill, Nigel Hayes, Paris Lee, Ben Moore, Lorenzo Bonam, James Blackmon, Frank Mason, Damyean Dotson, Antonius Cleveland, Jarron Blossomgame, probably some internationals I know nothing about

Estimating $ Values of the 2017 prospects

18 Sunday Jun 2017

Posted by deanondraft in Big Boards

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One limit of big boards is that a ranked list only orders value, it doesn’t estimate individual values with any specificity. For instance, I have Fultz #2 and Josh Jackson #3, but that does little to describe the disparity between the two, only that I have Fultz better to some unknown extent.

So I am estimating numerical values to each player’s draft rights in terms of millions of dollars. This is my first endeavor and it is strictly intuitive so will be nowhere near perfect, but it is an exercise that conveys my assessments with as much precision as possible. It should be a common practice beyond ranking, because it is far more descriptive of evaluations:

Screen Shot 2017-06-18 at 1.38.01 PM
Screen Shot 2017-06-18 at 1.38.37 PM

 

Once again– these are just off the top of my head guesses to try to convey how good this draft is at the top and how much it falls of a cliff after. Also I do believe Ball and Fultz are a cut above the rest, as the disparity between Fultz and Jackson is as significant as the disparity between Jackson and #16.

Fultz for #3 and LAL/SAC pick

If Josh Jackson is the choice at #3, there is a clear decline from Fultz. Granted, Fultz is slippery to evaluate as his immense talent is being weighed against his NCAA team’s surprisingly shaky performance. If his team thrived and he had elite intangibles I would rate him closer to $200M, but his bottom line impact was weak enough to add some doubt here. It is possible I am being too pessimistic at $140M, but it seems the Celtics are even more pessimistic and who knows what intangible flags they uncovered in the evaluation process.

I would estimate the Lakers/Kings pick acquired is worth about $40M, so if the deal is JJ + pick for Fultz means the Sixers won this trade by a bit ($140M vs $115M of value). These numbers do not need to be adjusted much for the deal to be even, but it is hard to see this as any clear win for Celtics if they draft Josh Jackson. Fultz is a much better fit since they are already loaded with deep, quality role players and badly need a star. And even if they could eventually be proven right on Jackson they are alone on an island in believing that the two prospects are of similar value.

If #3 is flipped for Jimmy Butler, the deal is arguably slightly better for the Celtics. If we say Butler is underpaid by $25M for each of the next 2 years and his bird rights are worth $35M, that means he is an $85M asset, slightly better than any #3 candidate. I still do not believe it is a good deal for them but it makes a bit more sense than preferring Josh Jackson to Fultz.

If the Celtics draft Lonzo Ball at #3, this deal is a smashing win for them because Ball is better than Fultz and they get a nice asset to boot.

From the Sixers perspective, this is a solidly good deal for them if Lonzo Ball is the Lakers’ choice at #2 overall. If Ball is available this is a big time failure by Colangelo as Ball is the superior prospect and superior fit with Embiid and Simmons. Even ignoring my own assessment of Lonzo (which is likely accurate), if we swap my values for Lonzo and Fultz to mirror consensus it still is not good for Philly.

In summary:

–If the Celtics draft and keep Lonzo Ball they are big winners and the deal is bad for Philly
–If Lonzo Ball is the choice at #2, Philly is the clear winner of the deal.
–If the Celtics ship #3 and not much (say Avery Bradley + Jaylen Brown) for Jimmy Butler or draft and keep Josh Jackson, the deal is meh at best for the Celtics. If they draft and keep Jayson Tatum the deal is actively awful and it adds a strong bullet point to the narrative that Danny Ainge is a bad drafter.

Big Board Update 5/25

25 Thursday May 2017

Posted by deanondraft in Big Boards

≈ 11 Comments

Now that the draft pool is set, here is my updated top 50. Note that I am ignoring the internationals who do not project to round 1:

Screen Shot 2017-05-25 at 10.34.13 AM

Just missed: Kyle Kuzma, Devin Robinson, Jake Wiley, Malcolm Hill, Jeremy Morgan, PJ Dozier, Wesley Iwundu, Jonah Bolden, Dillon Brooks

Lonzo Ball has unsurprisingly emerged as my #1. He is such an outlier of IQ and passing I find it overwhelmingly likely that he will be an NBA star.

Markelle Fultz is nevertheless a strong #1 pick if the Celtics choose him as expected. I expect him to become a star playing for Brad Stevens

Josh Jackson has aroused skepticism due to his poor shot and inability to be a #1 scoring option, but he’s holding strong as my clear choice at #3. He posted elite statistics, has elite athleticism for a 6’8″ player, and his competitiveness bodes well for good development. His poor shooting places him clearly below Ball + Fultz, but he has clear star upside.

Lauri Markkanen, Jonathan Isaac, De’Aaron Fox, and Jayson Tatum could be arranged in any order. Markannen is my big sleeper in the late lotto because it is understated how exceptionally rare it is for a 7’0″ to be such an elite shooter.

Zach Collins, Dennis Smith Jr, and Malik Monk form the next tier. Although I was a fan  of Monk throughout the season, it is difficult to overlook the fact that he has a PG body without PG skill and is also allergic to defense and rebounding. There is hope of him developing into a Lillard type on offense, but he may not be much more than a spot up shooter who is a disaster on defense.

Beyond the top 10, the pickings get slim. OG Anunoby is a major risk to be a disaster on offense, but his elite tools, defense, and youth make him worth a gamble once the freshman are off the board.

Donovan Mitchell lacking PG skills at 6’3″ inhibits his upside, but his 6’10” wingspan enables him to guard SG’s and gives him a good chance of becoming a valuable 3 + D combo guard.

Harry Giles is a challenging prospect to assess, as he has significant injury flags and his basketball instincts looked awful at Duke. But his physical tools are stellar, and he was once upon a time the top prospect in this loaded class. DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard prove that top notch basketball IQ is not a pre-requisite to thrive as an explosive giant, and I believe Giles has the most upside of any non top 10 freshman.

Frank Ntilikina is another challenge. He lacks both skill and athleticism for a guard, and his statistics do not imply any hope of future stardom. But his 7’0″ wingspan, and reported elite intangibles and intelligence offer hope for strong development in the youngest player in the draft.

Caleb Swanigan is one of the funkier prospects in the draft. He is too short to protect the rim, and too slow to guard the perimeter. Yet he anchored a top 25 defense for Purdue, and posted stellar scoring, passing, and rebounding statistics. He is an awkward fit into NBA lineups, but if he fits in on defense he could be a late 1st or 2nd round steal.

Josh Hart is my senior sleeper. Hart would be exciting if he had a bit more height, burst, or shooting ability, but as it is he is still decent enough in all of the categories. And he had an excellent NCAA career, as he makes winning plays and led Villanova to 4 years of immense success. He has no special upside but has a solid chance of becoming a useful rotation player.

Luke Kennard is a fine selection in the late first for his shooting and offensive promise, but I am surprised that he is rated as a possible lotto choice in spite of his poor physical tools and defense. He could find NBA success similar to JJ Redick, but ranking near the lottery feels a bit too optimistic.

Justin Patton is an explosive big man who can finish lobs and do little else. He is soft on the boards and defense, and drew surprisingly few free throws for such a physically gifted interior scorer. If a team wants a young big outside of the lottery, Tony Bradley is a much better choice as his monster 18.7% ORB rate crushes Patton’s measly 8.0%.

Justin Jackson is another fraudulent Justin, and I am not sure how he even entered the lottery conversation. He offers a nice combination of size and basketball IQ, but excels at nothing. His frame and athleticism are limited, he is not an offensive centerpiece, and did not develop reliable NCAA 3 point shooting until he was a senior aged junior.

Terrance Ferguson is young with good tools, but has been awful statistically everywhere he plays. He does nothing but shoot 3’s at an average rate, and his draft hype seems predicated on the mystery of not knowing how he would play alongside his peers at the NCAA level.

Reggie Upshaw is my deep undrafted sleeper. He led Middle Tennessee to back to back seasons with NCAA tournament wins, and with a shooting leap could become a useful NBA small forward.

How Good Is This Year’s Draft?

23 Monday Jan 2017

Posted by deanondraft in Big Boards, NCAA

≈ 16 Comments

Tags

De'Aaron Fox, Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina, Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Jonathan Isaac, Josh Jackson, Lauri Markkanen, Lonzo Ball, Malik Monk, Markelle Fultz

lonzo-kentucky-picture

It is a common exercise to rate prospects in the class against each other, as this drives the selections made on draft night. But this class is being hyped as historically good, and it is worth discussing how this crop collectively compares to an average draft class.

The Short Answer:

This draft is completely loaded at the top. I count 8 players who normally belong in the top 3, including 2 above average #1 picks. There are also 3 high risk elite talents who are just outside of most top 3’s, and then after that the draft becomes normal as the upperclass is fairly thin.

I estimate that this draft is similar to an average draft, but with three times as much top 3 talent as normal. To demonstrate, let’s stack the top 11 talents from the past 3 drafts up against my top 11 rankings:

2014-16 2017
1 Embiid Ball
2 Towns Fultz
3 Simmons Jackson
4 DAR Monk
5 Porzingis Lauri
6 Gordon Fox
7 Ingram Isaac
8 Jabari Tatum
9 Okafor Giles
10 Exum Ntilikina
11 Wiggins DSJ

These lists are well balanced, each side has similar prospect value.

I tried to match current prospects with similar ones from prior drafts while also having a reasonable rank of prior prospects, and it all worked out surprisingly well. The prior prospect list is almost a perfect ranking of how they would be valued today with the aid of partial hindsight.

The only improvement to be made with respect to pairings are swapping non-shooters to match primary handlers (Fox and Simmons) and off ball SF athletes (Gordon and Jackson). It is arguable whether this means that Gordon is underrated, Jackson is overrated, or simply that they are not the same exact prospect. But they are deeply similar, and I have more to say on this comp later.

Obviously the 2017 prospects will not all have parallel fates with their parallel prospect, but I feel this accurately conveys my perception of this draft’s goodness: It is amazingly good, and has clear potential to be the best top 11 of all time.

The Extremely Long Answer:

I am going to break this down into 4 classes: transcendent stars, possible stars, risks, and the non-elite.

Transcendent Stars (Strong #1 picks)

usa-lonzo-ball-markelle-fultz
1a. Lonzo Ball– 6’6″ PG, UCLA
1b. Markelle Fultz– 6’4″ PG, Washington

Fultz is a transcendent physical talent, Ball is a transcendent mental talent. They are extremely close, and I have a difficult time settling on one as superior to the other.

For now I put Lonzo in the lead because he glows with goodness that has captured my attention in a strong way. I cannot stop watching him, I cannot stop writing about why he is great and why his flags are of little concern. Fultz is amazing in his own rite, but I’m giving the edge to the guy who is aggressively pinging my intuition with signs of greatness.

Among historic point gods, I believe Lonzo Ball is most similar to Steve Nash. He may never match Nash’s off the dribble shooting ability, but he also might. Even if he falls short, he can atone for it with a much lower turnover rate and better physical tools to hold his own on defense. It is difficult to envision him becoming less good than Nash. But his incredibly assist:TOV ratio and elite eFG% reminisces of Chris Paul, and Ball has clear potential to be that good. And with his massive 6″ height advantage over Paul, there is wiggle room for Ball to become even better.

Fultz is a hybrid of Dwyane Wade and James Harden with potential to be better. It is almost easier to see him becoming better than those two than worse. His combination of slashing, finishing, and vision at such a young age is exceptionally rare and he is clearly on the path to greatness. Perhaps he develops at a poor rate and falls well short, but how bad can he be at developing his game if he is already this good this young? His biggest question mark is whether his basketball IQ trails his intuitive instincts by enough to preclude him from greatness. It is plausible, but he is so insanely talented that he is definitely going to be good.

I do not think either of these players measures up to Anthony Davis or Joel Embiid in terms of raw pre-draft talent. But they are likely both top 5 prospects of the past decade, as they both have strong cases to be rated superior to Karl Anthony Towns, Blake Griffin, John Wall, and Ben Simmons. I’d rate them as similar to KAT and superior to the latter 3.

Possible Stars (Strong #2 picks to weak #3 picks):

screen-shot-2016-03-31-at-11-35-40-pm

You can rank this tier in almost any order without getting an objection from me. All of the players have clear star upside, but also have flaws that could render them ordinary NBA players.

3. Josh Jackson– 6’8″ SF, Kansas

Jackson offers loads of goodness, as he is elite at everything but shooting and creation off the dribble. But the worries with Jackson are mounting

  1. His 26% 3P and 56% FT are major flags. It’s fun to imagine him making a Kawhi level shooting leap, but Kawhi shot 74% FT in college and had a much better starting point.
  2. Aside from spacing issues– can he be a point forward? As per synergy, he is averaging 0.59 PPP as P&R Handler and 0.46 in Isolation, good for 24th and 9th percentile respectively. This is largely correlated with his shooting woes, as when he does not get to the rim he will often pull up and brick, as he his shooting 29.3% eFG off the dribble (23%ile)

I still have him at #3 because he has such great strengths, and still manages to produce on offense thanks to excellent passing, cutting, and touch near the rim. He reminisces most of the awesome and underrated Shawn Marion with a worse shot and better passing and athleticism. But I also said the same thing about Aaron Gordon in 2014. Gordon appeared to be on the path to stardom after his sophomore NBA season, but now has an unclear upside in the midst of a third year slump.

As mentioned earlier, they are deeply similar prospects who are excellent at everything but shooting and shot creation. Gordon bricked harder on NCAA FT’s at 42%, but he was 1 year 7 months younger as a freshman. His average NBA age is similar to Jackson’s NCAA age, and he has shot better on FT’s (66% vs 56%) and 3’s in spite of longer distance (30% vs 26%). Jackson is a different person and player with his own share of advantages (better rim touch, more steals/blocks, better cutting) and he could develop at a faster rate. But are his advantages enough to outweigh his inferior shooting by a significant enough margin to make him a star? Should we be encouraged by Gordon’s promising sophomore season, or are his third year struggles a sign that it is crazy to take Jackson #3 overall? It’s tough to say–  Jackson is an extremely weird prospect.

I am erring on the side of optimism for now because Jackson’s intangibles are reputedly excellent, as he is a fiery competitor with 3 technical fouls on the season. He is not the type of player I am in a rush to bet against, and placing him outside of the top 3 feels like it would be such a bet. So for now Jackson leads my second tier, but he may creep down to the 4-6 range by draft night.

4. Malik Monk– 6’3″ SG, Kentucky

I normally am opposed to drafting one dimensional shooters with defensive question marks too early. My first post on the site was about Doug McDermott being an overrated prospect, and last season I singled out Buddy Hield as the clear dud of the lottery. But Monk and Lauri Markkanen are outliers, so they get special consideration.

I already wrote about Malik Monk’s elite shooting, and I am not sure why has not received more comparison to Steph Curry. Let’s compare pace adjusted per 40 stats from their freshman seasons:

2PtA 2P% 3PtA 3P% FTA FT%
Monk 9.6 59.3 8.9 41.4 4.6 83.3
Curry 7.8 53.6 10.4 40.8 5.1 85.5

The differences in 3PA rate and FT% such that Monk is not a Curry level outlier in either accuracy or trigger, but the fact that he is even in the ballpark is exciting. He has a chance of becoming the 2nd best shooter in NBA history. And he does far more damage than Curry did inside the arc. Granted, much of that is in transition which translates poorly to the NBA, but Monk’s additional production and athleticism cannot be ignored.

Pts Rebs Asts TOs Stls Blks
Monk 26.3 2.9 2.7 2.3 1.4 0.4
Curry 25.5 5.5 3.3 3.3 2.2 0.2

Curry’s comfortably superior steal and rebound rates in spite of comfortably inferior athleticism imply some drastic instinctual advantage that likely precludes Monk from becoming as good as Curry.

But Monk’s athleticism is evident in his higher block rate, and his ability to avoid turnovers is another feature that helps counter-balance the comparison a bit. And most importantly– Monk’s assist rate is surprisingly close considering that he shares the backcourt with two traditional PG’s in De’Aaron Fox and Isaiah Briscoe. He has shown flashes of impressive vision and passing ability, and it is feasible that he develops into a great distributor like Curry.

Overall Monk’s inferior shot, instincts, rebounding, and ball handling likely preclude him from achieving Curry’s level of greatness. But his athleticism and ability to avoid mistakes give him a shot of coming close. Even if he falls short of Curry, he can still be as good as another hyperefficient shooter who was allergic to rebounds: Reggie Miller.

He could also fall short of Miller, but I would be surprised if he fell on his face altogether. His combination of elite shooting accuracy, volume, athleticism, and offensive feel for the game is too much to not become good offensively. I would be surprised if he is not at least as good as the 2016-17 version of Bradley Beal.

Monk’s flaws are real, and they cannot be ignored. His defense and rebounding will almost certainly be bad as a pro, and it detracts from his value. But offense is much higher leverage for guards, and he has such a high floor high ceiling offensively that I suspect his defensive warts will be well worth stomaching.

5. Lauri Markkanen– 7’0″ PF, Arizona

Markkanen is shooting 83.5% from the line, and the only 7’0″ NBA player with a greater career FT% is Dirk Nowitzki. If you include 6’11” players: Mike Gminski, Jack Sikma, and Bill Laimbeer all check in between 83.7% and 84.9%. Gminski only made 6 career 3P, and Sikma and Laimber shot 33% from 3 on low volume, yet the latter two collectively appeared in 11 all-star games. Then Yao checks in at 83.3%, and the combination of being tall and great at FT’s continues to look like a strong combination.

You need to go below Lauri’s current FT% to find the discouraging comps of Channing Frye, Andrea Bargani, and Meyers Leonard in the 82-83% range for their NBA careers. But their pre-draft FT%’s all pale compared to Lauri as they were all in the 73-76% range, and Bargnani and Leonard were rife with flaws that precluded them from NBA goodness. A better shooting version of Frye would be a reasonable floor for Lauri, which is good for a non-top 3 pick.

Now let’s consider the meaning of his elite FT%. First it loudly suggests that he has a chance to become the best 6’11″+ shooter in NBA history, especially taken in tandem with his 50% 3P. It also hints that he has an outlier level of coordination, which gives him potential to develop an elite creation ability to complement his elite shooting. This is why the Dirk comparison is so pertinent, especially when he has the ability to pull off a move like this off the dribble.

Most are not convinced of the Dirk comp, as Markkanen does not score high volume for Arizona and is consensus rated outside the top 7. But given his hyper efficient 137 O-Rtg and how well he eye tests, I believe his Dirk upside is more attainable than commonly perceived. If nothing else he will be a highly efficient complementary scorer who physically can hold his own on defense, as he does not have lead feet like Steve Novak. He may nevertheless be a poor NBA defensive player due to lackluster instincts and length, but at least he has a chance of competence.

Markkanen’s range is a better version of Channing Frye or Ryan Anderson to the second coming of Dirk. I believe he is underrated by consensus.

6. De’Aaron Fox– 6’3″ PG, Kentucky

With a strong start to SEC play, the quick De’Aaron Fox jumps over the lazy Dennis Smith Jr. in my rankings.

Fox may seem high at #6 considering his poor shooting from all levels: 3P (5/37), mid-range (4/20), and short range (6/21). But he has super powers that cannot be ignored:

  1. His unique combination of quickness, coordination, and ball handling enables him to get to the rim at will, and his touch near the rim enables him to finish efficiently.
  2. He has an elite assist and turnover rate for a volume scorer

His 69% FT suggest that his shot is not hopelessly broken, and it is worth gambling that he makes an outlier leap. One sneaky benefit is that he is so adept at getting to the rim he does not pull up for bricks as often as other bricklaying PG’s, and is shooting 55% on 2P thus far. It is feasible that he becomes a good offensive player even if his shot stays broken, and if he makes a big leap he will become a full fledged stud lead guard.

Most will want to compare him to past Kentucky guards like Rajon Rondo and John Wall, but Rondo is more cerebrally gifted, Wall is more physically gifted, and neither has Fox’s ability to smoothly navigate through defenses.

The best comparison for Fox is Rod Strickland, who shared similar dimensions (6’3″, 175) and had a good statistical prime in spite of limited shooting range. Isiah Thomas has similarities as well. The most optimistic upside comp if he makes the shooting leap is Gary Payton. Although Fox is an extreme long-shot to match Payton’s shooting AND defense, he is a much more advanced scorer at the same age. Yes, it is the pinnacle of optimism, but it is hard to find pertinent comps for Fox since he is such a special snowflake.

The fact that most Fox comps inspire optimism is a good sign, as it is difficult to find a past guard who offered scoring, passing, and limited mistakes while amounting to little in the NBA. In spite of the poor shot, #6 may be too low for Fox as he arguably has as much upside as anybody outside the top 2.

7. Jonathan Isaac– 6’10” SF/PF, Florida St.

Isaac is the defensive specialist of the draft, as his profile is highlight by a rare combination of height and quickness that gives him elite versatility to guard multiple positions. He fits especially well into a heavy switching scheme, and considering his awesome steal, block, and rebound rates he has potential to be an extraordinarily valuable defensive player as a pro.

His biggest warts appear on offense, as he is limited off the dribble and a long windup on his shot results in a low 3PA rate. Consequently, he has a medium usage that does not have great upside to be stretched, and his limited ball skills show in his poor assist:turnover ratio. But he is not a complete disaster on this end– his 38.5% 3P and 82.4% FT imply that he should be an acceptable NBA floor spacer, and he moves well off the ball with great efficiency on cuts (95%ile per synergy) and put backs (97%ile).

Isaac is a one of a kind super role player. There is one strong upside comp who mirrors his physical profile and skill set: Andrei Kirilenko.  Kirilenko is highly underrated and would be an awesome return on any draft slot. Isaac is far from certain to be as good defensively as AK47, and his passing is far behind. But he his a much better shooter and has a reasonable chance of matching Kirilenko’s overall peak value. But Kirilenko is an extremely special snowflake, and Isaac may end up closer to the strikingly similar Marvin Williams. Pace adjusted per 40 freshman stats:

Pts 2P% 3PA 3P% FT%
Isaac 19.9 63.2 4.6 38.5 82.4
Marvin 18.1 52.2 2 43.2 84.7

Isaac converted more shots inside the arc and displayed more comfort shooting from 3 point range. But at 8 months older, there is not much separating their NCAA offensive output.

Rebs Asts Stls Blks TOs PFs
Isaac 11.7 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9
Marvin 10.5 1.2 1.7 0.8 2.5 4.1

This is where Isaac sets himself apart, with slightly better rebounding and steal rates and much better block and foul rates. And while he also has an assist:turnover flag, it is a lighter shade of red than Marvin’s.

Overall Isaac is clearly the superior prospect, and a better defensive version of Marvin Williams is not a bad floor. But Williams is a cautionary tale for Isaac’s offensive warts, as his lack of NBA 3P range and ball skills depressed his offensive output early in his career. If Isaac runs into similar translation problems, his offensive weakness may offset his defensive goodness.

Marvin Williams to Andrei Kirilenko presents a wide range of outcomes, but Isaac’s upside and ability to fit in almost any NBA lineup is highly attractive for a non-top 3 pick.

8. Jayson Tatum– 6’8″ SF, Duke

Tatum is the top 8 player that I have the toughest time grasping. On one hand– he has clear two way star potential as his scoring instincts and 85% FT give him offensive upside, and his steal and block rates imply great defensive upside.

Conversely, nothing is guaranteed on either side of the ball. Offensively his FT% is extremely promising, and he also has the ability to score volume and the vision to whip an occasional great pass. But there is also a laundry list of warts to fret over:

  1. Does he have NBA 3 point range? Only making 30% of 3’s on low volume for Duke and seems to be more comfortable in the mid-range.
  2. He gets stripped and swatted a ton for a player of his talent. His high turnover rate and 48% 2P makes his overall efficiency meh in spite of his free throw dominance.
  3. He is a poor offensive rebounder for his size, and pales in comparison to similar players such as Jabari Parker and Carmelo Anthony in that regard.

So he is a mystery box. Maybe he will always be a black hole of inefficiency with limited spacing gravity, or maybe the rest of his skill level will catch up with his elite FT% and he becomes a star on this end. I don’t know.

Defensively the steals and blocks are exciting, but he was never reputed as a lockdown defensive player and Duke as a team has been underachieving on defense relative to their talent level. So maybe he is a sieve, or maybe he makes a positive impact on this end. Again, I don’t know.

His range is roughly an overrated mediocrity like Glenn Robinson to a suped up version of Carmelo Anthony. I am slightly more pessimistic regarding Tatum than consensus, largely because his mold presents a more worrisome downside tail than the other prospects in this tier. But he definitely offers enough goodness to have star upside, thus he occupies the final slot in the tier.

Tier 3: Risky Talents (Standard #4-7 picks):

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9. Harry Giles– 6’10” PF/C, Duke

On top of injury flags, Giles has also looked like a disaster since entering Duke’s rotation as he appears completely lost on defense. His instincts look bad, and he also may have some lack of physical confidence as he appears surprisingly prone to bullying for a player of his physical profile.

It is hard to project his NBA future, as he could so easily be a zero. But prior to the injuries, he was a front-runner for the #1 overall pick in front of all of these studs. His AAU stats are awesome, his physical profile is awesome, and he is a rare enough talent to be worth a shot in the dark gamble in the back end of the lottery.

His downside is Andre Drummond with injury flags, his upside is a better version of DeAndre Jordan. Once the tier 1 and 2 players are off the board, it is likely worth it to take a shot on him and hope for the best.

10. Frank Ntilikina– 6’5″ PG, France

Ntilikina is a complete mystery box. His profile suggests that he has clear star potential, but without any reasonable gauge of statistical production we must reduce the odds of his upside being attained and fatten up his downside tail.

Most people will point to Giannis Antetokounmpo as an example of an upsidey mystery box being underrated in the draft, and yes he was an incredible steal who is much better than all 14 players drafted ahead of him. But for every Giannis that binks, there is a truckload of Bruno Caboclos that come nowhere close. How do we tell the difference from afar? We cannot, we can only accept the uncertainty and try our best to rank him at a level headed slot considering his wide error bars.

Ntilikina is playing professionally in France, but due to low minutes and a limited offensive role as an 18 year old string bean, it is nearly impossible to gauge his level of goodness. If he played NCAA we would at least have an idea of how he looks as a primary handler, but as is he averages 3.2 pts per game with more turnovers than assists. He has some home run potential, but is more likely to be a complete whiff.

He cannot go ahead of elite freshmen who solidified their appeal with great NCAA production, but once they are all off the board it is reasonable to gamble.

11. Dennis Smith Jr.– 6’3″ PG, NC State

I rate DSJ as the clear fraud of the lottery, as in spite of his great athleticism and statistical production his team continues to rack up losses. This is because he has poor basketball IQ, makes inaccurate passes, and over gambles on defense.

And while his talent is good, it is not great. He has great athleticism, but isn’t an explosive freak and his poor wingspan and reach diminish his physical profile. And while he is a capable shooter, he is not great. His intersection of handles, shooting, athleticism, and vision are nice, but not special or outlier enough to make him an exciting gamble in the top 5 given his losing tendencies.

I have a hard time seeing Smith as a star that helps his NBA team win games, although he may post nice fantasy stats as a pro. His upside is Stephon Marbury and his downside is just bad. Maybe I am underrating him– I do not feel quite as pessimistic for him as I did for Andrew Wiggins. But I have a hard time getting excited for him relative to the other studs in the class.

Tier 4: The Rest (standard #8-16 picks)

012716ethanhapp
12. Isaiah Hartenstein
13. Rodions Kurucs
14. Ethan Happ
15. Ivan Rabb
16. Miles Bridges
17. TJ Leaf
18. Robert Williams
19. Andrew Jones

20. OG Anunoby

After the top 11, the draft starts to lose appeal as the non-freshmen are fairly weak this year. But there are a few players who deserve mention.

Interationals:

Hartenstein is a rapidly rising international who is gaining appeal based on his great physical profile and balanced stat stuffing in FIBA U18 play. I just skimmed his DX profile and know little about him, but it is possible that after further analysis he should belong a tier higher. He is highly appealing at a glance.

Kurucs is a young, versatile, international wing who may not declare for this draft.

NCAA non-freshmen:

Happ, Rabb, and Anunoby are my super sophomores and the only NCAA non-freshmen I have in my top 21. The ones who just missed the cut are Dedric Lawson, Bryant Crawford, and Josh Hart.

Happ is the underrated gem of the draft, as he excels at everything but shooting and has potential to be a Draymond/Millsap level steal when he declares.

Rabb will likely be a solid NBA player similar to the Zeller bros, but it is difficult to see his path to stardom. Anunoby is a one way defensive beast who recently underwent season ending knee surgery. I believe he is too much of an offensive zero to justify a lottery selection as he is currently projected.

The Other Freshmen:

Bridges is the consensus next best freshman after the elite group. He has the athleticism, smoothness, and balanced production to sum to a quality NBA player, although his questionable efficiency and steal rate hint at him not being a future star.

TJ Leaf has significant appeal as a skilled and smart PF that offers versatile scoring and passing. His downside is his limited athleticism and defense. I would have an easier time getting excited over Leaf’s offense if he shot better than 62% FT, but he nevertheless pings my intuition as a player whose upside is underrated.

Robert Williams is a weirdo who pairs great length and athleticism with a unique skill set, as he offers great passing, cutting, and rim touch for a pogo stick. But his shot is a work in progress, and his offensive creation ability is sorely limited.

I wrote about Andrew Jones as Diet Russ, and since then he has committed many turnovers. He still piques my interest as a player who has nice upside if his skill level improves at an outlier rate, but right now he is incredibly raw.

Bruce Brown is my top freshman to miss the cut. He is an unheralded athletic freshman SG for Miami who is a nice athlete and does a little bit of everything.

Big Board 2.0: Going Deeper

26 Monday Dec 2016

Posted by deanondraft in Big Boards

≈ 10 Comments

Now that I have really dug into the 2017 draft class, it is time to post a complete big board of my top 60 prospects (and 1!). Age is as of draft night, and the only internationals I am including for now are Ntilikina and Kurucs because I just don’t know anything about the others:

screen-shot-2016-12-26-at-1-25-47-pm

I wrote that Malik Monk is not overrated, but I still rate him a hair lower than DX/ESPN. This is mostly because Lauri Markkanen is my one way shot maker of choice, as having an elite shot is more likely to be overpowered for a player who is 7’0″ and coordinated than a 6’3″ athlete. And I still do not want to glaze over Monk’s warts, because they are bad.

Harry Giles has not been ready to contribute his first two games after missing more than a year of action with an injury. He may not fully showcase his potential this year, and with his injury flags he will be one of the most challenging prospects in the draft to evaluate.

I’m aggressively sticking my big sleeper prospect Andrew Jones at #8. This may look silly  if he falls flat in Big 12 play, but it is more likely that he does not and he ascends to the lottery where he belongs.

Dennis Smith Jr. has been playing better lately but still has not shown the big upside curve to go top 5.

De’Aaron Fox is a challenging prospect to rate. On one hand, he is extremely pleasing to my eyes, as he is ultra quick, a pest on defense, throws laser passes in transition, and has smooth touch near the hoop. On the other hand– he cannot shoot, he has a frail frame, and he has poor awareness. Against Louisville he lost track of the shot clock twice, resulting in violations both times. He already had concerns about his ability to be an effective offensive player, and mistakes like this suggest that we should err on the side of pessimism.

If you are wondering why stat models love Ethan Happ, it’s because he can make plays like this. He’s too similar to Draymond and Millsap to slide to round 2 just because he does not fit the traditional PF archetype.

Bryant Crawford is another sophomore that nobody is talking about. He has good height (6’3) and length (6’7) for a PG and has revitalized Wake Forest basketball as the leader of a very good offense.

Creighton redshirt freshman big man Justin Patton is 6’11”, athletic, and hyper efficient on offense. He’s similar to Bam Adebayo, except he is actually tall enough to play center and better at everything other than offensive rebounding. And if you want a young offensive rebounder, Tony Bradley is posting a whopping 22% ORB% that is almost as high as Patton and Bam’s rates combined. Bam is not bad, but he just is not special relative to the other young bigs on the board in the late 1st.

Shamorie Ponds and DeAnthony Melton are statistical darlings of the draft with major scouting flags. Melton is a combo guard who can neither dribble nor shoot, and Ponds is a combo guard in a diminutive 6’0″ body. Both are so young with such outlier stats that they should not be dismissed entirely for their flaws, but Michael Weathers of Miami Ohio is the stat beast who has the best shot of becoming a good NBA player. He is quick with legitimate vision and creation ability, as he is posting Westbrook level stats for his woeful mid-major team.

Omer Yurtseven has not looked great in his first 3 games for NC State, but it is still too early to judge him firmly.

Ike Anigbogu is an infant aged pogo stick who is difficult to project given how young and raw he is.

PJ Dozier and Dazon Ingram are a couple of 6’5″ SEC lead guards who do a little bit of everything. They may not be athletic and skilled enough to be lead guards in the NBA or shoot well enough to play off the ball, but are intriguing 2nd round gambles nevertheless.

Jarrett Allen has strikingly low rebound, steal, and block rates for a player of his size and wingspan. He was portrayed as a defensive prospect and he may be broken on that end, which makes him not that much of a prospect after all.

Edmond Sumner hype sounded reasonable pending a big junior season breakout, but thus far I am skeptical. He is completely out of control when he drives to the basket and does not make accurate passes or layups. He seems like a poor man’s Mudiay to me, which is just poor.

Thomas Bryant is adored my the numbers, and hated by my eyes. It is possible I am underrating him, but I just don’t see him fitting in defensively in the NBA and I don’t see him as any sort of special offensive player.

I really do not buy Tyler Lydon as a 1st round prospect. He is a good but not great shooter, as he makes 41% of his career 3’s but has a low 3PA rate and cannot rely solely on his shot to succeed in the NBA. He’s a decent athlete and passer, but unless he can switch onto NBA wings on the perimeter (I suspect he cannot), I do not see enough versatility in his game to complement his shooting.

I cannot fathom that a player who cannot score, rebound, assist, steal, or block is a first round pick, but Terrance Ferguson is consensus top 20. He is super young and most of the other 5* prospects in the class have turned out well, so maybe he is somehow good. But more likely he’s a weak 3 + D prospect with average 3 and average D and terrible everything else. Bruce Brown is older, but seems much better at everything else other than his inferior shot.

Markis McDuffie is my deep mid-major sleeper. He is baby aged for a sophomore, and he is 6’8″ and smooth and could become a good role playing wing as his frame fills out.

Chandler Hutchison is my deeper mid-major sleeper, pending discovery of his birthday. He is a 4* junior 6’7″ SF with a 7’0″ wingspan who does it all for Boise State. If he is reasonably young for his class, he becomes an intriguing second rounder.

Mikal Bridges is an elite NCAA role player who is often miscast as a sleeper 1st round prospect. He is a zero on offense without outlier tools or defense to make him an exciting gamble. His physical profile is nearly identical to Hutchison’s, except he has far less offensive creation ability.

Grayson Allen has a consistent habit of turning into a brick and turnover machine whenever he faces any sort of athletic defense, and it is hard to see him amounting to anything in the NBA without becoming an elite shooter.

I included Sindarius Thornwell as a 61st prospect because a number of people have asked me about him. I am skeptical of his ability to make the NBA as he is not particularly athletic, quick, skilled, smart, or tall. But he does a little bit of everything statistically, and appears to have an improved shot. He merits attention if he continues to shoot well whenever he returns from his suspension.

Marques Bolden being unranked may seem harsh after he missed games with an injury and has barely played since returning. But he sounded like a dud coming in, and it looks like he will be sparsely used for Duke. I do not see any reason to cling on to hype until he actually starts performing, as he will likely be back at Duke for his sophomore year.

Gallery

2016 Final Big Board: List Format

23 Thursday Jun 2016

Posted by deanondraft in Big Boards, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

This gallery contains 2 photos.

2016 Final Big Board With Writeups

23 Thursday Jun 2016

Posted by deanondraft in Big Boards, Scouting Reports

≈ 4 Comments

I am fairly confident that the draft outcome is rife with inefficiencies. With pristine analysis of all available information, the resulting ranking of the true EV’s of each prospect should heavily vary from the actual draft order. I tend to reflect this in my historical big boards because being an extreme contrarian is fun, but I am now coming to grips with the facts that 1) I lack complete information and 2) my analysis is neither thorough nor pristine. Consequently I am left with extremely contrarian opinions based on limited confidence, and the overall efficiency of my final rankings suffer.

For my final board, my intent is to embrace my lack of knowledge and accept that the actual decision makers do not always differ from my opinion based on completely invalid information. I also am weighing in the perspectives of other draft writers that I respect. This will make my board less boldly anti-consensus but also should make it more efficient.

Tier 1 : Possible Stars

1. Brandon Ingram (DX: 1, ESPN: 2)

Ingram’s main concern is that he may not be that good, which is somewhat understandable since he is excellent at nothing and is not an explosive athlete either. But I believe he’s better than implied by his stats.

Ingram has multiple outs to create offense, as his extremely long arms give him the ability to shoot over most defensive players, and his handle and long strides provide him an ability to create off the dribble in spite of non-elite burst. He complements this with solid vision and passing as well as good defense and versatility to switch onto a wide range of matchups.

The fear is that he never develops into a great shooter, and his lack of athleticism prevents him from being a stud creator or defender and he is merely a decent role player rather than somebody who justifies a top 2 overall selection. This is a plausible outcome, which is why I rate him as a below average #1 overall choice. But he is super young with reportedly elite intangibles, and if he works on his skills and body diligently he can become a star. It is unlikely he lives up to the Kevin Durant comparison, but I see him as a player who has a strong balance of strengths with no real weaknesses in the vein of Millsap. And there is clear potential to pass Millsap as he offers superior height, length, and shooting.

2. Ben Simmons (DX: 2, ESPN: 1)

Simmons is clearly more talented than Ingram, and if he had Ingram’s intangibles he would be an above average #1 pick. But between LSU’s dismal team performance and reports that his intangibles are sorely lacking, there is sufficient evidence to devalue him to an average or worse #1 pick. Frankly it is sheer guesswork to determine much he should be devalued without full information and thorough analysis. My guess is more bearish than consensus, but it could be wrong if Simmons locks in defensively in the pros. And if he develops an 3 point shot this ranking could look especially silly in retrospect. But LSU’s defense was just so bad without much of an offensive spike with an alleged stud PG playing center, that I err on the side of pessimism and rate him behind Ingram.

3. Dragan Bender (DX 3, ESPN: 6)

As much as I want to love Bender and put him #1 on my board, there is simply not enough available information to put him above Simmons and Ingram who would both have viable cases for top 2 picks in an average draft. But there is nevertheless much to love here.

–He can guard all 5 positions
–He is an elite passer
–He appears to have a strong chance of developing into an acceptable NBA 3P shooter

The only other player in the NBA who fits these qualifications is Draymond Green, and he nearly just won finals MVP. And while it is dangerous to read too heavily into his 16 year old 9 game FIBA sample, they don’t just imply that he fits in with the top 3– they imply he may be better than Ingram and Simmons combined.

Since he appears to be a real threat of falling out of the top 5, I am erring on the side of caution and ranking him #3. But it is a strong #3 ranking, and I believe it is an unequivocal error to draft any player other than Simmons and Ingram ahead of him.

Tier 2: Pretty Good Prospects That Should Not Be Top 5 in a Normal Draft

4. Kris Dunn (DX: 4, ESPN: 3)

Dunn provides a baseline of great defensive upside to defend either guard position and elite floor vision to make him the default choice at #4 overall. But there are some pink flags regarding his ability to score. He shot 37% from 3 as a senior on low volume, and he took a number of long 2’s a step inside the arc. It seems he is more comfortable inside the arc, and he may not have a reliable shot from NBA 3 point range.

Further, for such a toolsy and experienced point guard, he created a surprisingly middling volume of layups for himself in the half court. If he struggles to get to the rim vs. NBA defenses he may be relegated to a mid-range chucker who cannot score efficiently enough to capitalize on his vision.

If Dunn can create layups and make NBA 3’s, he should become a nice 2 way player. But if neither happens he is merely a defensive specialist, which is why he is such a weak option at #4 overall.

5. Jaylen Brown (DX: 5, ESPN: 7)

Statistical models are not particularly fond of Brown, neither are most writers in the draft nerd community. But there are a number of factors that mitigate his lackluster statistics:

–He shot much better than his 29% 3P% and 65% FT% at Cal, as DX has him at 39% from 3 and 70% FT in 1,144 pre-NCAA minutes
–He is a better defender than his steals and blocks suggest, as Cal had the #17 kenpom defense with an anemic team steal rate and no elite shot blockers
–He has elite physical tools and the versatility to defend all positions 1-4
–He can create his own shot at the rim, just not at an efficient clip

He still is just an average rebounder and passer, and an inefficient chucker on offense. He may never become good at NBA basketball. But if he becomes a solid 3P shooter, a good and versatile defensive player, and he cleans up his shot selection and decision making on offense, he has as much star potential as anybody outside the top 3.

There’s a good chance I regret ranking Brown this high, but with such meh other options why not gamble on the scarce upside.

6. Wade Baldwin (DX: 14, ESPN: 17)

Nearly every draft nerd loves Wade Baldwin, and his monster 6’11.25″ wingspan gives him great defensive upside. He also has good floor vision and is a good shooter, and is a strong bet to become a useful NBA player. But he lacks the burst and handle to create his own shot at the rim, and his slow trigger resulted in a bizarrely low 3PA rate at Vanderbilt. While he is a strong bet to become a useful NBA player, he may not have the offensive upside to become a 2 way star. But his PG skills, shooting, and switching upside provide enough to be valuable without scoring much, and he is a flat out steal outside the top 10.

7. Deyonta Davis (DX: 11, ESPN: 16) 

Deyonta Davis is tall, athletic, and defensively versatile, with efficient garbage man skills on offense. He has a good assist:TOV rate for a young big and an acceptable mid-range/FT shot, and has nice 1.5 way potential as a valuable piece for switching defense that is not a complete liability on offense.

 

8. Marquese Chriss (DX: 6, ESPN: 5)

Chriss is slippery, as his youth, size, athleticism, and shooting offer promising upside while his poor rebounding, vision, and defense counter with frightening downside.

I tend to be bearish on players who cannot pass, rebound, or defend. But Chriss was actually a better offensive rebounder than Ben Simmons or Henry Ellenson, and DRB% can be a bit funky to predict (see: Andre Drummond who has ~doubled his NCAA DRB% in the NBA). His lack of vision and defensive fundamentals loom as concerns, but he is too young for his limitations to condemn him at such a young age. He may never overcome them, but the behind the scenes feedback doesn’t seem to deter teams from wanting to gamble on him.

Overall I feel there is more risk than upside, but there’s enough to like such that he is a fine gamble as a boom or bust player in the mid-lotto.

 

9. Jakob Poeltl (DX: 9, ESPN: 12)

I have written about Poeltl as an undervalued piece, and I still like him. He has been likened to the 3rd Zeller brother, which is a reasonable comparison. It does make it hard to see his upside, but if he emerges with better defense, rebounding, and passing than your average Zeller those can add up to make a difference.

 

 

10. Timothe Luwawu (DX: 12, ESPN: 26)

Luwawu strikes me as the French Jaylen Brown. He’s older and not quite as toolsy, but he offers a similar package of defensive versatility and offensive upside if his skills progress smoothly.

11. Chinanu Onuaku (DX: 38, ESPN: 37)

There are some pink flags chipping away at his prospect value– he’s slightly short, cannot shoot, is not an explosive athlete, and he has a minor heart condition. But collectively these do not add up to a ton in comparison to how awesomely good he is for such a young player. He still projects to slide to round 2 but I’m not hedging on this one– Onuaku is my clear favorite to be the steal of the draft.

12. Jamal Murray (DX: 7, ESPN: 4)

He’s a stud shooter, but his limited height, length, and quickness makes him project to be a significant liability as an NBA defensive player. The key question for him as a prospect is whether he can complement his shooting with his PG skills. He has a decent handle and good vision, but in college he struggled to get past quicker matchups and was relegated to a spot up shooter with Tyler Ulis running the offense.

There is wiggle room for him to justify his early lotto projection if he develops into a good shot creator and passable defensive player, but with just one proven dimension I believe he is slightly overrated.

Tier 3: Let’s Get Deep

13. Dejounte Murray (DX: 30, ESPN: 9)

Murray is a boom or bust candidate, as his profile is highlighted by his slithery slashing ability, good vision, and SG size. He also offers solid rebounding and defensive potential, and if his shooting, decision making, and strength improve he could be a home run selection.

14. Furkan Korkmaz (DX: 20, ESPN: 13)

Korkmaz offers a compelling combination of shooting, youth, passing, and solid wing height and athleticism. The concern is that he is a bit one dimensional as a shooter, and is too skinny to ever not be a liability on defense.

15. Zhou Qi (DX: 36, ESPN: 47)

We live in a world where Clint Capela was selected 25th, Rudy Gobert 27th, and Nikola Jokic 41st. It seems clear that NBA teams are scared by funky international big men, and Qi is as funky as it gets with monster height and length which is complemented with mobility and shooting ability rarely seen in giants. He is plagued by an outlier rail thin frame and lack of aggressiveness to scare off scouts and keep him out of round 1.

I have no idea if he can stick in the league or not– he could easily be a complete flop. But how many players have been failed with his combination of reach, mobility, and shooting? I assume the answer is none because I cannot think of any with his intersection of strengths. Once the lottery is done, why not gamble on the outlier prospect with an outlier upside over another vanilla 3 + D prospect? There is no reason that a player with an unprecedented intersection of strengths such as Qi should slide to round 2.

Frankly it seems conservative to rank him 15th, but without much information or hype I believe my point is made by placing him here.

16. Domantas Sabonis (DX: 18, ESPN: 10)

He’s young, he can rebound, he can score, and he has a good chance of having an NBA career. But he has such short arms, limited athleticism, and limited defensive versatility that I just don’t see the star potential to justify his rise to a possible top 10 pick.

 

17. DeAndre Bembry (DX: 27, ESPN: 20)

Bembry offers a little bit of everything between his athleticism, passing, rebounding, defense, shot creation. His shot is below average, but if it improves to average he should provide a nice return on any non-lotto pick.

18. Skal Labissiere (DX: 10, ESPN: 14)

Part of me feels compelled to call Skal a lock bust, but he allegedly has serious Channing Frye shooting potential as a hyper athletic 7’0″. How bearish can you be on a player like that? Whatever the answer is, mine is the maximum. He is an anemic rebounder, non-passer, has bad instincts, and is exceptionally foul prone because he tries to block everything on defense. In spite of his tools he could manage to match Frye’s shooting and still be a worse overall player. Conversely he could also manage to be a rich man’s Frye because of his tools, so I am tempering my desire to sell. My inkling is that he offers more boom than bust, but without many (or any?) prior prospects with his combination of burst, height, and shooting this cannot be stated with certitude.

19. Henry Ellenson (DX: 13, ESPN: 11)

Ellenson has been slowly sliding down draft boards, and it is hard to disagree. He offers a compelling offensive package for a 7’0″ player, but still is not yet particularly good at anything. He is average at passing and shooting and shot a hair under 50% from 2P%, so he still has a ways to go to put it together on this end. And even if he does he sounds like a strong bet to be a defensive liability. Ellenson’s upside scenario remains attractive but it requires such a parlay of good development that my optimism for his NBA prospects remains tempered.

20. Ivica Zubac (DX: 16, ESPN: 25)

Zubac is a funky prospect highlighted by his great size, hands, and touch which provides elite interior scoring upside. He’s only 19 and also has solid potential as a passer, shooter, and rebounder as well. Defense is his biggest concern, but if he becomes decent on this end he could provide a load of goodness without any gaping weaknesses.

21. Taurean Prince (DX: 19, ESPN: 34)

Prince is a prototypical 3 +D prospect, as he offers the versatility to guard either forward position, an acceptable 3 point shot and passing ability, and not much else. He won’t become a star but he could easily become a useful cog that fits in any NBA lineup.

22. Patrick McCaw (DX: 29, ESPN: 32)

McCaw is a 3 +D prospect similar to Prince but smaller– he has versatility to defend either guard position and possibly SF’s once he adds bulk. He complements this with adequate passing and shooting but lacks the creation ability to become a star.

 

23. Brice Johnson (DX: 30, ESPN: 29)

Brice Johnson is Jeremy Evans Deluxe, as his profile is highlighted by his elite leaping and finishing ability. He is a bit bigger and was much more productive at North Carolina than Evans was at North Carolina. If Evans’ finishing translated to such respectable NBA production, Johnson’s analogous upside is tantalizing.

Of course there is a reason why Evans is not a regular rotation player, and Johnson has similar concerns. He is a prone to bullying from other PF’s but lacks the defensive fundamentals to adequately guard the perimeter, and also lacks perimeter skills offensively. This makes him an awkward fit into NBA lineups, and it may prevent his statistical production from translating into positive value for his team.

Johnson is another slippery prospect, but he is in the conversation for most athletic player and most productive NCAA player in the draft (kenpom’s algorithm rated him as player of the year) and is still just 21. Those are inarguably nice check marks for a late 1st gamble.

24. Buddy Hield (DX: 8, ESPN: 8)

I have written about Hield as my clear choice for most overrated top 10 pick. He brings elite shooting volume and accuracy, but even if he replicates Klay Thompson’s shooting (which is close to his absolute upside since Klay converted most 3P of all time for any non-Curry in 15-16), he still lacks Klay’s size, court vision, defensive aptitude, and defensive versatility. This would be enough to make him a useful rotation piece. But unless his slashing game develops into a legitimate weapon, it is hard to see an upside tail that justifies his top 10 hype.

25. Denzel Valentine (DX: 25, ESPN: 22)

I want to love Denzel Valentine– it is rare that a player with his intersection of passing, shooting, and rebounding is available outside of the lottery ever. But at the same time he projects to be a major liability defensively and is inept at getting to the rim on offense.

26. Gary Payton Jr. (DX: 48, DX: 56)

The Mitten turns 24 in December, but his elite rebound, steal, and block rates cannot be ignored and he offers just enough offensively to have upside as a 1.5 way PG. His PG skills are not great, but he used his athleticism to get to the rim with regularity and complemented this with a good assist to turnover ratio. His biggest wart is his shot, as he shot 30% on limited 3PA volume and 65% FT, and he may be too old to improve this to an adequate rate. But if his shot experiences a mini-leap forward, he could be highway robbery in round 2 given his athleticism, ability to defend either guard position, and PG skills.

 

27. Malik Beasley (DX: 23, ESPN: 21)

Beasley is an athletic shotmaker and slasher who offers surprising rebounding and competes enough on defense to amount to a useful NBA guard. His intangibles appear to have elevated his stock to the 12-20 range. But he is an undersized SG without much PG skills, so I do not see a tempting enough upside tail for him to be near the top of my list in that range.

28. Cheick Diallo (DX: 24, ESPN: 24)

Diallo is an exceptionally smooth and coordinated big, and after dominating the high school all star circuit I was sky high on him entering NCAA season. Then he spent the year buried on Kansas’s bench, he still is too short to play center, and he lacks the passing and shooting to play on the perimeter. This makes him slippery to peg, but he could be a bigger and better Faried and he is an intriguing fringe 1st round gamble.

 

Tier 4: I Wish I Could Rank All Of These Guys Higher

 

29. Paul Zipser (DX: 26, ESPN: 57)

Zipser is the European Taurean Prince, as he offers defensive versatility as a combo forward and enough shooting and passing to fit in on the perimeter as a solid 3 + D type.

30. Rade Zagorac (DX: 33, ESPN: 45)

Zagorac provides an interesting offensive blend of creation, passing, and shooting for a 6’9″ athlete. There are questions about his defense given his weak frame and limited quickness, so I am not quite as high on him as other intelligent people. But it is easy to see how he strengths could sum into a nice NBA piece for a late 1st/early 2nd flier.

31. Caris LeVert (DX: 46, ESPN: 41)

LeVert is a consummate role player, as he does a little bit of everything among passing, shooting, defense, rebounding, and secondary creation. He lacks strength, athleticism, and durability as his past two seasons ended prematurely due to separate leg and foot injuries. But if he can stay healthy, his small strengths could stay into a surprisingly positive role player and he is consequently one of my favorite 2nd round sleepers.

32. Demetrius Jackson (DX: 17, ESPN: 31)

Jackson’s package is highlighted by athleticism, shooting, and PG skills. But he is almost 22, excellent at nothing, and too small to guard SG’s. He is good enough to justify a late 1st or early 2nd selection, but too bland to be an exciting choice.

33. Juan Hernangomez (DX: 15, ESPN: 18)

Hernangomez is a late riser based on his PF size, non-stop motor, great intangibles, and ability to space the floor. I am skeptical of this rise as I believe talent evaluators are expecting him to fit on the perimeter due to his shooting when his awful assist to turnover rate is the more important signal for swing forwards to translate to the next level. Further he is not a lock stud defensive player, as he is a non-rim protector and has mediocre reach for a PF. My inclination is that he lacks the ball skills for SF and size or burst to defend PF, but perhaps his quickness, shooting, and motor enable him to find an NBA niche nevertheless.

34. Ante Zizic (DX: 22, ESPN: 23)

Zizic is a 19 year old with decent center tools and tantalizing scoring, rebounding, and shot blocking stats in the Adriatic league. The downside is that his steal and assist:TOV rates suggest seriously flawed instincts. He appears to be a pure garbage man which limits his upside, but he is so good at his role it is easy to envision him finding a niche in the NBA.

35. Robert Carter (DX: 44, ESPN: 54)

One of the draft nerd darlings of the 2nd round, Carter does a little bit of everything. With his 7’3.25″ wingspan and balanced game, he has a tiny sliver of equity to be a Millsap level steal.

36. Isaia Cordinier (DX: 39, ESPN: 44)

Cordinier is a mystery box but his scouting report resembles one that may possibly contain a boat: athleticism, vision, shooting, competitive defense, intangibles. He is an intriguing early 2nd gamble.

37. Damian Jones (DX: 21, ESPN: 27)

Toolsy centers with good bodies and athleticism require little skill to succeed in the NBA. DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond offer examples of players who slid in the draft and then translated better than expected. But Jones does not match their levels of athleticism and offers nearly nothing in terms of skill and feel. In spite of his tools he has weak rebounding stats and shockingly low steal and block rates. If he could defend Vanderbilt’s defense would rank much better than #34 as he had the privilege of playing alongside Wade Baldwin and Luke Kornet.

His best skill is his scoring, but he is a poor FT shooter, lacks 3P range, and is a poor passer even if he has become a more willing one. He doesn’t turn 21 until shortly after the draft and is still salvageable, but I do not believe he’s enough of an athletic freak to become a quality starter in spite of his basketball playing limitations.

 

38. Thon Maker (DX: 40, ESPN: 19)

He is 7’1″ and has some semblance of a skill level, but in the 2015 Hoop Summit he looked nothing near an NBA prospect as it appeared he had hands for feet and feet for hands. Being uncoordinated and unathletic is a tough pair of weaknesses to overcome, and he was outshined by a number of players who struggled as NCAA freshman.

He apparently interviewed well and it may be easy to talk yourself into his upside without proof that he is bad, but there is even less proof that he is good. It is possible he’d be firmly in the undrafted ranks with a full NCAA season, so he likely belongs somewhere in round 2.

39. Stephen Zimmerman (DX: 40, ESPN: 40)

Zimmerman looked like he had decent potential in the 2015 Hoop Summit, but then he was a disappointment for UNLV. He battled through injuries and two bad coaches so perhaps he is still salvageable, but there’s not much to love about his freshman performance.

 

40 Kay Felder (DX: 56, ESPN: 49)
41. Tyler Ulis (DX: 28, ESPN: 23)

Ulis’s high stock seems to be an overcorrection to Isaiah Thomas’s success as the #60 overall pick, but this neglects that Isaiah Thomas is likely the best player < 6′ in NBA history and he still commanded limited FA and trade value after early successes. Further, IT’s success is predicated on elite speed to get to the rim and crafty finishing as he carried a monster usage for good efficiency in Boston. Neither are part of Ulis’s repertoire, as he created a low volume of layups for himself at Kentucky.

Ulis is going to be a harmful player defensively, and it is hard to see how he atones without creating a high volume of offense on the other end. His great floor general skills and outside shooting create an ounce of intrigue, but he has such extreme limitations to overcome I do not believe he deserves to get selected in round 1.

Kay Felder may be the diminutive PG with slightly better odds of success as his superior athleticism and creation ability give him a clearer path to a big offensive impact.

42. Isaiah Whitehead (DX: 57, ESPN: 52)

Whitehead is an incredibly erratic offensive player, as evidenced by his 39% 2P% and poor turnover rate. But he has some PG skills, 3P shooting, and defensive upside, and has sneaky potential if he can find a real coach and clean up his decision making on offense.

43. Diamond Stone (DX: 31, ESPN: 33)

Stone grades decently well according to some statistical models, but I just don’t think his tools are good enough for him to fit in defensively in the NBA. At 6’10.25″ he is too short to play center and without much burst or quickness he does not figure to find a niche in modern NBA defenses.

 

44. Guerschon Yabusele (DX: 32, ESPN: 30)

Yabusele has a good PF body, athleticism, and shooting. But he lacks the quickness to guard the perimeter and is neither a rim protector or generally regarded as good on defense, and there is too much disaster potential on this end to consider him in round 1.

 

45. Malachi Richardson (DX: 35, ESPN: 15)

My most disliked green room invite, I’m softening my anti-Malachi stance on the premise that he might be better than his on paper scouting report. If he has good intangibles it is not impossible to envision him sticking in the NBA. He can slash to the rim and possibly be a solid 3 point shooter and decent wing defender. His assist to turnover ratio wasn’t terrible, and if he can clean up his awful mid-range shot selection he may become a serviceable 3 +D wing after all.

I still don’t see how he merits a first round selection, but it is easy to argue that he is solidly draftable.

46. Georgios Papagiannis (DX: 50, ESPN: 46)

It is hard to keep up with all of these late emerging internationals, but Papagiannis is huge, 18, and not obviously super bad so let’s just stash him here on my board and be happy with it.

 

47. Malcolm Brogdon (DX: 42, ESPN: 38)

Brogdon is super old and unathletic, but he was one of the best players for one of the best NCAA teams. His length, BBIQ, and shooting give him some hope of sticking as a 3 +D player.

48. Prince Ibeh (DX: 51, ESPN: 88)

Ibeh is a complete zero offensively, but he is draftable based on his stunning tools and defensive potential alone.

Tier 5: Fliers
49. Derrick Jones Jr. (DX: 70, ESPN: 86)
50. Troy Williams (DX: 73, ESPN: 75)

I am not sure how these guys are rated so lowly. They are both super athletes with potential to be good defensive pieces. Williams does enough things on offense to possibly fit in on the perimeter, and Jones is young enough to have time to figure things out.

The behind the scenes information on these players must be ugly because on paper they are both easily worth a 2nd round flier. With good intangibles they are both 1st rounders to me.

51. Pascal Siakam (DX: 52, ESPN: 43)

Nothing jumps off the page about Siakam, but he does enough things well to merit a shot in round 2.

 

52. AJ Hammons (DX: 43, ESPN: 45)

A number of intelligent people seem bullish on Hammons based on his body and stats, but I believe he is too old, indifferent, and lacking in instincts to be much of a sleeper.

53. Jake Layman (DX: 49, ESPN: 48)

He has good size, athleticism, shooting and not much else.

54. Alex Caruso (DX: 84, ESPN: NR)

One of the most underrated players in NCAA this past season, Caruso doesn’t have great length or athleticism but he has great PG height, vision, and defensive instincts. He has a chance of being a reliable NBA 3P shooter, and I believe he’s too good to not merit a late 2nd flier.

55. Petr Cornelie (DX: 37, ESPN: 50)

Cornelie seems bleh to me, but DX and ESPN think he is draftable so why not include him in my top 60.

 

56. Jameel Warney (DX: 100, ESPN:78)

Warney strikes me as a Spurs-ian type who thrives on feel and skill to post monster stats for Stony Brook as an undersized PF. He is probably too short and slow to cut it in the NBA, but his measurables are identical to Millsap so his sliver of poor man’s Sapquity requires mentioning.

57. Daniel Ochefu (DX: NR, ESPN: NR)

Ochefu isn’t that athletic and projects to have struggles defending the PnR, but he was so so good as a college senior I believe he deserves late 2nd consideration.

58. Fred VanVleet (DX: 83, ESPN: 61)
59. Ron Baker (DX: 78, ESPN: 60)
60. Jared Uthoff (DX: 59, ESPN: 36)

Some more super productive seniors who I like more as NCAA players than NBA prospects

Just Missed the Cut: Josh Scott, Isaiah Cousins, Dorian Finney-Smith, James Webb, Elgin Cook, Anthony Barber, Joel Bolomboy, Josh Adams, Michael Gbinije, Tyrone Wallace, Thomas Walkup, Wayne Selden

75ish. Ben Bentil (DX: 45, ESPN: 36)

Bentil is the player consensus to be drafted that I like the least. He has meh athleticism, meh rebounding, meh passing, no defense, and just doesn’t offer a whole lot outside of medium efficiency volume scoring when he was consistently set up by Kris Dunn.

 

 

2016 Preseason Big Board (#’s 21-60)

21 Monday Sep 2015

Posted by deanondraft in Big Boards

≈ 8 Comments

Generated by  IJG JPEG Library

Note that while the top 20 includes the top international prospects in this year’s draft class, this list excludes the second tier internationals.

21. Theo Pinson (ESPN: 44, DX: 31 in ’17)

The #15 RSCI recruit in 2014, Pinson is the 3rd highest rated returning sophomore behind Justin Jackson and Isaiah Whitehead. He had limited opportunity to showcase himself as a freshman coming off the bench behind Jackson and JP Tokoto, and then a foot injury sidelined him for the majority of the 2nd half. He is skinny but otherwise he has ideal tools to defend either wing position, and he used his athleticism to fill up every non shooting/scoring stat category in his freshman sample with exceptional passing for a wing. With Tokoto gone, Pinson figures to play big minutes next year and has strong breakout potential.

22. Troy Williams (ESPN: 41, DX: 20)

Williams has a good base of athleticism, quickness, ball handling, and passing ability for a wing. There are questions about his shooting ability, as he only attempted 0.6 3P per 40 minutes as a sophomore. But he was also playing PF/C for a small Indiana team, and he did shoot 74% FT. If he can develop 3 point range, he has nice upside with the tools to be a good defensive wing and the ball skills to play on the perimeter.

23. Malik Pope (ESPN: 6, DX: 30)

Pope had a decent season for a toolsy 18 year old freshman, and he has clear breakout potential as a sophomore. He missed significant time in high school with injuries, so he may have extra sneaky upside if he can finally stay healthy for an extended time frame. But he did not excel at anything as a freshman and is merely a good not great athlete, so Chad Ford should probably relax before ranking him ahead of Dragan Bender.

24. Wade Baldwin (ESPN NR, DX 39 in ’17)

In 2012, Baldwin measured 6’1.5″ without shoes and a 6’10” wingspan. His length explains how he amassed a 3.1% steal rate for a typically low steal coach, and it gives him the versatility to defend either guard position. Offensively he posted a solid assist rate with a 2.3 assist to turnover.

The main question for Baldwin is: can he score? He is a decent but not elite athlete and did not get to the rim with overwhelming frequency. While he shot 44% from 3 and 80% from FT, his shooting was considered a weakness as a recruit and he did not attempt a high volume of 3’s. It is too soon to anoint him as a legitimately good prospect, but he is one of the top returning players to monitor in 2015-16.

25. Damian Jones (ESPN: 15, DX: 16)

He is 7’0, strong, athletic, and young for his class as he only turned 20 at the end of last June. This is a great foundation for a prospect, but the rest of his profile is lackluster. He has a highly underwhelming rebound rate for a player with his tools, and his block rate is only OK. He hardly ever gets steals, and while he vastly improved his assist to TOV rate as a sophomore it was still a paltry 0.34. His 60% sophomore FT% is not bad for a 19 year old big, and he does have a semblance of a short to mid range scoring game. But without outlier athleticism and an average 7’2″ wingspan, he did not show the skill or BBIQ to be worth more than a late 1st based on his first 2 seasons at Vanderbilt.

26. Gary Payton II (ESPN: 61, DX: NR)

The Mitten is a fascinating prospect– on one hand he is undersized to play SG at 6’2.5″ with a 6’6.5″ wingspan and an underskilled PG with many offensive limitations as an athletic 22 year old. On the other hand, he had higher block and defensive rebound rates than Jahlil Okafor last season to complement the 2nd highest steal rate in the NCAA behind Corey Walden. His measurables understate his possible defensive impact, and he is roughly next draft’s version of Terry Rozier with bigger defensive upside.

27. Jalen Brunson (ESPN: 23, DX: 27 in ’17)

Brunson seems all sorts of awesome in terms of basketball playing skills, as he is a pure point who is a smooth slasher and finisher, can shoot, plays pesky defense, and has good basketball IQ. But he is 6’2″ with a lackluster 6’3″ wingspan and average athleticism, which makes it hard to succeed in a league loaded with talented and toolsy point guards. Brunson strikes me as the type who has a shot to overcome the odds after watching him dominate FIBA u19, but I would prefer to see a signficant sample of NCAA success before getting too giddy over the possibility.

28. Chinanu Onuaku (ESPN: 27, DX: 26)

He is a completely one way defensive prospect, as he is young, toolsy, and has shown the ability to rack up steals and blocks on defense. He is a zero offensively outside of O-Rebs, but he was one of the youngest players in NCAA last year, so there is room for him to grow into a useful garbage man. He is poised for a big sophomore leap and is a player to monitor next season. The only reason I am not higher on him is because his measurables of 6’10” with a 7’2.5″ wingspan are weak for a one way defensive center.

29. Stephen Zimmerman (ESPN: 31, DX: 8 in 2017)

Zimmerman looked good in the Hoop Summit. He is a reasonably athletic 7’0″ with a balanced array of strengths who has clear potential to contribute on both ends. He is a jack of all trades and master of none, and is one of the more appealing non-lotto freshmen.

30. Keita Bates-Diop (ESPN: NR, DX: NR)

Last year’s #29 RSCI recruit only played 10 mins/game as a freshman on a team driven by D’Angelo Russell and upperclassmen. But he has nice tools for an NBA SF as he is 6’7″, long, and athletic. He can rebound, block shots, make 3’s, and he posted more assists than turnovers as a freshman. He is skinny and doesn’t seem to offer much shot creation, but he has breakout potential and I am not sure why he is completely off the radar.

31. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (ESPN: 17, DX: 17)

Mykhailiuk struggled as an 17 year old freshman, posting a 7.2 PER in 291 minutes. Now as a sophomore he will still be one of the youngest players in the NCAA, so it would not be fair to hold his small freshman sample against him given his athleticism, basketball IQ, and shooting. But he is not a great shooter (31.3% 3P% in 288 career attempts according to DX) and his short arms prevent him from being much of a playmaker defensively. He has struggled badly inside the arc his whole career, as he is not comfortable finishing in traffic and tends to throw up wild shots in the paint. He has potential for significant improvement in this area, but DX and ESPN are taking a large progression for granted in ranking him as a mid-1st rounder.

32. Grayson Allen (ESPN: 18, DX: 32 in ’17)

He is small for a SG, but his athleticism gives him upside as a scorer as he has the skill to both slash and shoot. His championship game performance blew his ESPN hype a bit out of hand, but it’s feasible that he eventually lives up to it.

33. Chase Jeter (ESPN: 51, DX: 17 among freshmen)

Jeter could be the Bobby Portis of the class, as scouts are glazing over him due to not being a great athlete or having a standout skill in spite of his #14 RSCI rating. But between his youth, size, quickness, rebounding, basketball IQ, and budding offensive skill he has a number of small edges that could add up to a quality player.

34. Jake Layman (ESPN: 35, DX: 24)

I am not sure that he has the perimeter skills to be an NBA SF, but in round 2 it is worth gambling on the possibility that he does given his athleticism.

35. DeAndre Bembry (ESPN: 42, DX: 38)

Bembry stuffed the statsheet as a sophomore for an inexperienced St. Joseph’s team, racking up a healthy share of points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. His efficiency was mediocre and he is only a career 33.5% 3P 61.1% FT shooter. But he has solid size for an NBA SG (6’6″ tall 6’8″ long) as well as the athleticism, quickness, and ball handling skills to succeed at the position should his shooting and decision making improve.

36. Justin Jackson (ESPN: 22, DX: 23)

Last year’s #9 RSCI freshman is the top rated returning sophomore. Jackson is the anti-Moreyball player: he is lethal from mid-range, which makes up a big portion of his offense. He lacks the athleticism to create layups and FT’s, and has limited shooting range as he shot just 30.4% from 3 on low volume as a freshman. He is also limited defensively as he does not have the size to make a big impact. His redeeming qualities outside of mid-range dominance are that he has nice size for a SF and is a good passer with good feel as he posted an elite assist:TOV rate as a freshman.

He has an interesting blend of strengths, but the trouble is figuring how this amounts to a useful NBA player. Mid-range shooting is not that valuable for an off the ball wing, so to become a good NBA’er he needs to develop 3 point range as well as ball skills to justify regular touches.

37. Isaiah Whitehead (ESPN: 77, DX: NR)

Whitehead had a horribly inefficient season as an old freshman PG (he turned 20 in March), as he shot just 38% on 2P and posted nearly as many turnovers as assists. But in spite of limited athleticism and quicks he showed defensive potential and is a decent shooter– if he cleans up his decision making on offense he will emerge as a viable prospect.

38. Monte Morris (ESPN: NR, DX: 39)

Morris has fairly average tools for a PG, is not a volume scorer, and even his assist rate is not stellar. But the smooth operator has posted a stunning 4.7 to 1 assist to turnover rate in his 2 years at Iowa State while making 40% 3P, 80% FT, and posting great steal and block rates for a player of his physical profile. He is a unique prospect that seems to have an outlier intersection of coordination and feel for the game.

39. Michael Humphrey (ESPN: NR, DX: 71 among sophomores)

This is my shot in the dark super draft sleeper. There is limited information on him, as I cannot even find his birthday. What I do know is that he was the #60 RSCI freshman and is an athletic 6’9″ PF. He played a bit role for Stanford last season until he was inserted into the starting lineup near the end of Pac-12 play. In 6 games and 126 mins as a starter, he averaged 15.9 pts 13.0 rebs 2.5 blks per 40 shooting an awesome 67% inside the arc before spraining his ankle and missing the majority of the remaining season. He also posted nearly as many assists (13) as turnovers (15) over the full course of the season. He is a skinny PF who shot just 11/22 FT and 0/2 3P, so he could be perceived as a very undersized center. But between his assist rate and acceptable scoring on non-rim 2’s (15/33), he appears to have hope to develop an acceptable PF skill package. The main caveat is this is all a very thin slice, and more information is needed before any strong conclusions are drawn.

40. Isaiah Briscoe (ESPN: 19, DX: 18)

Briscoe is a big, strong guard who appears to be the second coming of Andrew Harrison. He is not athletic or quick, and is bad defensively even though he has the measurables to defend SG’s. He also is a mediocre shooter. His saving grace is that unlike Harrison he appears to be a legitimate point guard with floor vision and passing skills. Overall he is bleh to me, and I am not convinced that he will prove to be the 3rd best freshman prospect on Kentucky ahead of #50 RSCI Charles Matthews.

The Rest

41. Ray Smith
42. James Webb III
43. Derryck Thornton
44. Daniel Ochefu
45. Buddy Hield
46. Denzel Valentine
47. Melo Trimble
48. Brice Johnson
49. Tim Quarterman
50. Fred Van Vleet
51. Deonte Burton
52. Devin Robinson
53. Kennedy Meeks
54. Thomas Bryant
55. Malcolm Hill
56. Allonzo Trier
57. Justin Simon
58. PJ Dozier
59. Mike Tobey
60. Gary Clark

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