Now that I have really dug into the 2017 draft class, it is time to post a complete big board of my top 60 prospects (and 1!). Age is as of draft night, and the only internationals I am including for now are Ntilikina and Kurucs because I just don’t know anything about the others:

I wrote that Malik Monk is not overrated, but I still rate him a hair lower than DX/ESPN. This is mostly because Lauri Markkanen is my one way shot maker of choice, as having an elite shot is more likely to be overpowered for a player who is 7’0″ and coordinated than a 6’3″ athlete. And I still do not want to glaze over Monk’s warts, because they are bad.

Harry Giles has not been ready to contribute his first two games after missing more than a year of action with an injury. He may not fully showcase his potential this year, and with his injury flags he will be one of the most challenging prospects in the draft to evaluate.

I’m aggressively sticking my big sleeper prospect Andrew Jones at #8. This may look silly  if he falls flat in Big 12 play, but it is more likely that he does not and he ascends to the lottery where he belongs.

Dennis Smith Jr. has been playing better lately but still has not shown the big upside curve to go top 5.

De’Aaron Fox is a challenging prospect to rate. On one hand, he is extremely pleasing to my eyes, as he is ultra quick, a pest on defense, throws laser passes in transition, and has smooth touch near the hoop. On the other hand– he cannot shoot, he has a frail frame, and he has poor awareness. Against Louisville he lost track of the shot clock twice, resulting in violations both times. He already had concerns about his ability to be an effective offensive player, and mistakes like this suggest that we should err on the side of pessimism.

If you are wondering why stat models love Ethan Happ, it’s because he can make plays like this. He’s too similar to Draymond and Millsap to slide to round 2 just because he does not fit the traditional PF archetype.

Bryant Crawford is another sophomore that nobody is talking about. He has good height (6’3) and length (6’7) for a PG and has revitalized Wake Forest basketball as the leader of a very good offense.

Creighton redshirt freshman big man Justin Patton is 6’11”, athletic, and hyper efficient on offense. He’s similar to Bam Adebayo, except he is actually tall enough to play center and better at everything other than offensive rebounding. And if you want a young offensive rebounder, Tony Bradley is posting a whopping 22% ORB% that is almost as high as Patton and Bam’s rates combined. Bam is not bad, but he just is not special relative to the other young bigs on the board in the late 1st.

Shamorie Ponds and DeAnthony Melton are statistical darlings of the draft with major scouting flags. Melton is a combo guard who can neither dribble nor shoot, and Ponds is a combo guard in a diminutive 6’0″ body. Both are so young with such outlier stats that they should not be dismissed entirely for their flaws, but Michael Weathers of Miami Ohio is the stat beast who has the best shot of becoming a good NBA player. He is quick with legitimate vision and creation ability, as he is posting Westbrook level stats for his woeful mid-major team.

Omer Yurtseven has not looked great in his first 3 games for NC State, but it is still too early to judge him firmly.

Ike Anigbogu is an infant aged pogo stick who is difficult to project given how young and raw he is.

PJ Dozier and Dazon Ingram are a couple of 6’5″ SEC lead guards who do a little bit of everything. They may not be athletic and skilled enough to be lead guards in the NBA or shoot well enough to play off the ball, but are intriguing 2nd round gambles nevertheless.

Jarrett Allen has strikingly low rebound, steal, and block rates for a player of his size and wingspan. He was portrayed as a defensive prospect and he may be broken on that end, which makes him not that much of a prospect after all.

Edmond Sumner hype sounded reasonable pending a big junior season breakout, but thus far I am skeptical. He is completely out of control when he drives to the basket and does not make accurate passes or layups. He seems like a poor man’s Mudiay to me, which is just poor.

Thomas Bryant is adored my the numbers, and hated by my eyes. It is possible I am underrating him, but I just don’t see him fitting in defensively in the NBA and I don’t see him as any sort of special offensive player.

I really do not buy Tyler Lydon as a 1st round prospect. He is a good but not great shooter, as he makes 41% of his career 3’s but has a low 3PA rate and cannot rely solely on his shot to succeed in the NBA. He’s a decent athlete and passer, but unless he can switch onto NBA wings on the perimeter (I suspect he cannot), I do not see enough versatility in his game to complement his shooting.

I cannot fathom that a player who cannot score, rebound, assist, steal, or block is a first round pick, but Terrance Ferguson is consensus top 20. He is super young and most of the other 5* prospects in the class have turned out well, so maybe he is somehow good. But more likely he’s a weak 3 + D prospect with average 3 and average D and terrible everything else. Bruce Brown is older, but seems much better at everything else other than his inferior shot.

Markis McDuffie is my deep mid-major sleeper. He is baby aged for a sophomore, and he is 6’8″ and smooth and could become a good role playing wing as his frame fills out.

Chandler Hutchison is my deeper mid-major sleeper, pending discovery of his birthday. He is a 4* junior 6’7″ SF with a 7’0″ wingspan who does it all for Boise State. If he is reasonably young for his class, he becomes an intriguing second rounder.

Mikal Bridges is an elite NCAA role player who is often miscast as a sleeper 1st round prospect. He is a zero on offense without outlier tools or defense to make him an exciting gamble. His physical profile is nearly identical to Hutchison’s, except he has far less offensive creation ability.

Grayson Allen has a consistent habit of turning into a brick and turnover machine whenever he faces any sort of athletic defense, and it is hard to see him amounting to anything in the NBA without becoming an elite shooter.

I included Sindarius Thornwell as a 61st prospect because a number of people have asked me about him. I am skeptical of his ability to make the NBA as he is not particularly athletic, quick, skilled, smart, or tall. But he does a little bit of everything statistically, and appears to have an improved shot. He merits attention if he continues to shoot well whenever he returns from his suspension.

Marques Bolden being unranked may seem harsh after he missed games with an injury and has barely played since returning. But he sounded like a dud coming in, and it looks like he will be sparsely used for Duke. I do not see any reason to cling on to hype until he actually starts performing, as he will likely be back at Duke for his sophomore year.

The non-conference NCAA season is almost over, and we now have a glimpse of what the top freshmen have to offer. The early returns are extremely promising, as this draft class has potential to be the best top 10 of all time. I have not had time to thoroughly watch all of the top guys so these rankings are highly fluid, but this is what I have so far:

1. Markelle Fultz: 6’4″ PG/SG, Washington

Everything about Fultz screams superstar. He has the skills, he has the tools, he has the instincts, and his statistics are off the charts for an 18 year old freshman. His team success is lagging, but that is likely attributable to teammates and coaching that is even more dreadful than Ben Simmons had to work with. Unless some serious flags arise as the season progresses, it is hard to imagine him not being the #1 pick, as his profile is just dripping with greatness. He is arguably a top 3 prospect of the past 20 years along with LeBron and Anthony Davis.

I don’t want to go overboard with the praise as I have not watched him enough to rate him over past prospects such as Oden, Durant, Embiid, and Towns with high confidence. But based on his numbers and physical profile his upside is boundless, and for now he is the clear tanking prize of the draft.

2. Lonzo Ball: 6’6″ PG, UCLA

Ball is polarizing, as he does not have overwhelming athleticism nor is he much of a scoring threat. But the draft is about finding players with outlier strengths rather than no weaknesses. And it is worth considering the possibility that Ball could become the best passer in NBA history.

In 15 years at coaching at UCLA, New Mexico, and Iowa, Steve Alford has never had a top 10 offense or a top 20 eFG%. His best was the loaded 2014 UCLA team featuring Kyle Anderson, Jordan Adams, Zach LaVine, and Norman Powell. They finished #11 in kenpom offensive efficiency, and #22 in eFG%.

12 games into the season, Ball’s UCLA team has the #1 offense and #1 eFG%. Their eFG is as many points better than the #3 eFG team as the Anderson + Adams teams was above average. This UCLA team just doesn’t miss shots, and it is hard to not suspect that Ball has a special impact on the offense. Granted, there are a number of explanations to temper optimism:

1. Only 5 of the 12 teams they have faced are top 100 teams, as they have played most of the weaker teams on the schedule
2. TJ Leaf is playing an integral role, as he leads the team with a staggering 71.5% eFG%
3. It is still a small sample, and UCLA likely will not sustain its 43.9% 3P%

But based on early indicators it is hard to not feel like Ball has a special impact on the offense. UCLA has consistently outperformed expectations, and have been at their best against the stiffest competition. And every returning rotation player has seen his offensive efficiency skyrocket.

Ball’s lack of athleticism and scoring is a harmful flaw on his profile to be sure, but they are worth stomaching with his potential to be a bigger and better version of Steve Nash or John Stockton.

3. Josh Jackson: 6’8″ SF, Kansas

Jackson has been precisely as advertised, as he is elite at everything except for his big flaw of shooting. But his saving grace offensively is that he has feathery touch from short range, which is a stark contrast from Andrew Wiggins bricking layup after layup for Kansas.

His shot appears to be seriously broken, but if he makes a big leap in this regard he is going to be a superstar. And even if it stays broken, he may nevertheless be a valuable NBA player.

Deciding between Ball and Jackson at #2 is going to be an incredibly tough decision. They both have such a special combination of strengths, and both would be #1 picks in most seasons.

4. Lauri Markkanen: 7’0″ PF, Arizona

Markkanen has been placed in a rough situation to start his college career, as Arizona is currently playing with just 7 players with only 3 of them being perimeter players. Thus he has been forced to play small forward in some awkward 3 big lineups, and he has managed to be hyper efficient anyway due to his elite outside shooting and incredible propensity to avoid turnovers.

He still has shown limited ability to create and score inside the arc, which puts a slight damper on the profile of a player who is a one way scorer. But all things considered he has been excellent in spite of tough circumstances, and he has potential to be an elite offensive weapon in the NBA.

5. Jayson Tatum: 6’8″ SF/PF, Duke

After 4 career games, I still do not have the best handle on Tatum. I had expected him to be a Jabari Parker doppelgänger, but based on early returns he appears that he may be significantly better. He had a great game against Florida in the only real competition he faced, and his upside appears to be a better version of Carmelo Anthony. I would like a large sample size of success before getting too excited, but so far he appears to be more than just a mid-range volume scorer.

6. Harry Giles: 6’10” PF/C, Duke

Giles had a tough NCAA debut with an ineffective 4 minutes after various knee injuries have kept him sidelined for the past 1+ year. His stock has been tanking due to the injury flags, but he is a unique talent who offers elite upside in the scenario that he can stay healthy.

7. Jonathan Isaac 6’11” SF, Florida State

Isaac is stuffing the stat sheet with steals, blocks, rebounds, and made shots. But the big wart is just 8 assists vs 19 TOVs, which is a flag for his feel and ability to play the perimeter. There is still enough good stuff here for him to be a very exciting mid-lotto selection, but his wart is a bit more disconcerting than the flaws of the other top guys.

8. Dennis Smith: 6’2″ PG, NC State

Smith has been a bit of a letdown to start the season, as he has not been as efficient as expected and his team is struggling badly. He is coming off an ACL tear and speedy freshman PG’s often are at their best late in the year, so his best play is likely yet to come. But if he does not turn it on down the stretch, his prospect appeal wanes. His small size is more enigmatic the less he dominates NCAA.

9. Malik Monk: 6’4″ SG, Kentucky

Monk’s superpower is that he has an elite intersection of athleticism and shot making ability. He can score from anywhere, and has posted excellent scoring and volume and efficiency thus far.

Monk does this in spite of being unable to create his own shot at the rim in the half court. He racks up points in transition, and in the half court he scores by hitting shots of all difficulty, as he has excelled at shots that are contested and/or off the dribble.

The challenge is figuring out what this amounts to in the NBA. He is undersized for a SG, has a reputation for coasting on defense, and is completely allergic to rebounds, so it is safe to call him a one way prospect. JR Smith seems like a reasonable comparison, but Monk seems to have an extra gear of shot making ability that Smith lacks.

It is possible that Monk is so good at making jump shots and has enough passing vision such that he can become an offensive star in the NBA. But being a 6’4″ SG who does not get to the rim or play defense are big warts that cannot be overlooked.

10. De’Aaron Fox: 6’3″ PG, Kentucky

The perfect yin to Monk’s yang– Fox excels at the areas where Monk is lacking: defense, rebounding, point guard play, slashing to the rim. But he is almost as bad at making shots away from the rim as Monk is good. He is just 3/23 from 3 and just 6/25 from mid-range shots in the half court, as per Synergy Sports. The glimmer of hope comes from his 76% FT, and if he can learn make jump shots Fox becomes a highly attractive player. But if he cannot he may be worse on offense than he is good on defense.

11. Ivan Rabb: 6’11” PF/C, California

Rabb is off to a slow start this year as he has battled injuries, but he should be his regular super Zeller self once his wounds are healed.

12. Frank Ntilikina: 6’5″ PG, France

Ntilikina is an international box of mystery, and I have no idea where he should go.

13. Rodion Kurucs: 6’8″ SF, Latvia

Kurucs is super young and has a compelling international stats, and could be a good gamble once the stud freshmen are off the board.

14. TJ Leaf: 6’10” PF, UCLA

Leaf’s limited wingspan and athleticism cast doubt on his ability to translate his offense to the NBA and fit in defensively. But his offensive skill and feel is so great that he has pretty good upside in spite of his physical limitations

15. Miles Bridges: 6’7 SF, Michigan State

Bridges offensively efficiency has been bad in 8 games for Michigan State, but if he can improve his shot and cut his turnovers it is easy to see him amounting to a pretty good NBA player with his body, athleticism, and defensive potential.

16. OG Anunoby: 6’8″ SF/PF, Indiana

Anunoby has an intriguing blend of physical tools, defensive upside, and youth. The big question for him is whether he can fit into an NBA offense without being a massive liability.

17. Jawun Evans: 6’0″ PG, Oklahoma State

Evans is undersized for a PG, but does literally everything for Oklahoma State offensively at an efficient clip. He is a poor man’s Chris Paul. This does not paint a clear outcome because being worse than Chris Paul means he can be anywhere on a scale of not NBA caliber to an all-star. But since the original CP3 was undervalued in the draft, it is reasonable to suspect that Evans may be as well.

18. Michael Weathers: 6’2″ PG, Miami OH

My favorite statistical outlier of the season. Weather is listed at 161 pounds, but that has not stopped him from rebounding like a forward and blocking shots like a center. And he also does everything offensively at a not bad efficiency for a mid-major team that is otherwise bereft of talent.

He clearly has potential to rise up to the lottery the way Cam Payne did. Rivals rated him as a 3 star recruit, and he is super quick. If he can add muscle to his frame he becomes highly intriguing, as he is as outlier as you can get for a mid-major prospect.

19. Ethan Happ: 6’8″ PF, Wisconsin

Happ is an old school low post power forward who is too small and with too limited range to catch the eye of NBA scouts. But he is a full fledged statistical outlier, and there are some shades of Paul Millsap in his profile. All of the upperclassmen who fit preferred archetypes are so bad that I would easily gamble on Happ’s unique NCAA performance over a prototypical future d-leaguer.

20. Robert Williams: 6’9″ PF, Texas A&M

I highlighted Williams as a non-elite prospect who could rise in the draft ranks in my season preview, and based on the early returns he should be a 1st round selection. He is undersized to play center, but his appeal is centered around his surprisingly decent passing and shooting ability for an athletic shot blocker.

21. Rawle Alkins: 6’5″ SG, Arizona

Nothing about Alkins jumps out as elite, but he is a solid and well rounded SG prospect who does a little bit of everything. Why not gamble on him in the late 1st over an upperclassmen with more obvious limitations?

22. Josh Hart: 6’5″ SG, Villanova

Nothing about Hart’s profile is amazing. He is merely good but not great in most categories: athleticism, shooting, scoring, defense and is undersized for a wing. But he has the tools to fit in, and is so smart and well rounded that it is not hard to envision him becoming a quality NBA role player.

23. Monte Morris: 6’3″ PG, Iowa State

Morris does not have enough athleticism, shooting, or scoring ability to be loaded with upside. But he may be able to overcome his athletic shortcomings with exceptionally smooth footwork, and his feel and efficiency may yield a quality rotation player.

24. DeAnthony Melton: 6’4″ SG, USC

Melton has tantalizingly good stats for an NCAA role player, as he racks up rebounds, steals, assists, and blocks while maintaining a good offensive efficiency. But he has elite offensive efficiency because he cannot do anything off the dribble and ergo does not try, and he is a poor shooter as well. He is fairly athletic and super young so there is still hope that he manages to fit into an NBA offense, but he will likely be undone by his inability to do anything on offense.

25. Bam Adebayo: 6’10” PF, Kentucky

The runt of the Kentucky litter, Adebayo excels at offensive rebounding and dunking and not much else. He is also old for his class and I do not see anything special about him to argue that he belongs in the lottery.

26 and beyond

Things are getting pretty thin at this point. The draft is loaded at the top, but after the elite freshmen are off the board the international and upperclass crops are both too thin to offer much depth.

Now that I have gone on a binge of writing words, I will post an attempt at a big board with DX and ESPN rankings for comparison.

One note on this board is that it is extremely hard to have rankings that I feel good about while thin slicing these prospects. There is such a thin margin between being the #15 and #30 prospect in this draft, it is nearly impossible to correctly value the key nuances from afar. I can make a good effort with the available pieces and logical analysis, but the draft process entails loads of luck even with the thick slice. When thin slicing and filling in the blanks with guesswork, predicting NBA futures feels like a complete variance fest. But it is a fun variance fest, so here are my rankings:

The top 3 are all below average #1 picks but above average for #3. They can be reasonably ranked in any order. It is probably a horrible idea to rank Dragan Bender #1 based on a small sample of FIBA stats and highlights of touchdown outlet passes, but I like to live life on the edge. He could be a Darko level flop and make me feel bad about this ranking, or he could also be a generational star in a world where Brandon Ingram is Luol Deng-ish and Ben Simmons is an enigma, so let’s gamble. Ingram is the safest pick but the least sexy, and then Simmons is roughly taller Rajon Rondo which means he will land somewhere on the scale of incredibly frustrating to awesome.

Wade Baldwin is beloved by every draft nerd and should rise on ESPN and DX’s respective boards. I feel similarly toward Baldwin as I did toward Marcus Smart– he may not have the burst and ball skills to be a true superstar, but he has wiggle room for surprise upside and at least he is unlikely to provide a bad return for the drafting team.

I wrote about Jakob Poeltl and Chinanu Onuaku as two of my favorite bigs.

I have no Furkan idea where to rank Korkmaz, but he is 18, 6’7″, can shoot, pass, and jump which is a super nice intersection of traits. I do not understand why he does not have more draft hype in a world where the intersection of shooting and athleticism causes traditional scouts to drool all over themselves. You would think the rest of his game is awful, except youth, passing, and good wing height further bolster his profile to the point where he feels like he may merit consideration at #4 overall. His weaknesses are strength, defense, and ball handling, all of which seem readily improvable given his age. Yet here we are, with Chad Ford ranking him one slot ahead of Malachi Richardson and DX not even having him top 20. Shrug.

Timothy Luwawu is another international guy that seems like a better gamble from afar than these crappy young NCAA guys.

Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray, Henry Ellenson, and Marquese Chriss make up my tier of baby NCAA players who I am not particularly fond of, but all have outs to become good NBA’ers so I am not relentlessly selling.

Zhou Qi is another international who just seems like he is a better shot in the dark than most NCAA guys. He has monster height and wingspan, skill, and basketball IQ, yet DX barely has him in round 1 Chad Ford has him ranked behind loads of 23 year old NCAA players who are locked into D-League careers. Especially after seeing foreign bigs like Jokic and Capela providing awesome draft value recently, why get so bearish on a guy with a unique collection of good traits?

Brice Johnson is my pet sleeper. He is young for a senior, and is in the conversation for both best NCAA player this past season as well as most explosive leaper in the draft. Any time both of those things are true, how bad can it be to draft him? He is Jeremy Evans deluxe– Evans always had solid stats, and I imagine if he was a bit bigger and more well rounded like Brice that he would be a useful pro.

Denzel Valentine is weird. On one hand, a guy who is great at passing, shooting, and rebounding seems like a great gamble in the mid-1st. On the other hand, how good can a guard be while being a statue on defense and unable to get to the rim on offense?

I have written about my doubts regarding Buddy Hield.

I like everybody in the #22-32 range. Most of them I wish I could move up, but I’m not sure to move down. This is a section where I wish I was more familiar with nuances, so I could have a more accurate ranking. Instead I may as well randomize it.

Damian Jones has a great body and athleticism and is a young junior, but suffers from being bad at basketball. As a regular Vanderbilt watcher, he was incredibly frustrating as the game of basketball simply does not come natural to him. He has a basic scoring repertoire and has become a willing passer. But his poor instincts are reflected in his lackluster rebounds, steals, and blocks, as well as the fact that Vandy only had the #34 defense in spite of Jones sharing the floor with more talented players such as Wade Baldwin and Luke Kornet.

Like Damian Jones, Skal Labissiere has great tools but little in the way of basketball playing ability. The only area where he stuffed the statsheet is blocks, and that is largely because he jumps at everything. His anemic rebound, assist, and steal rates indicate his awful feel for the game, and as an old freshman he seems nearly hopeless to me. His best skill is his decent mid-range/FT shot. It is hard to write off an explosive 7’0 player at age 20, but outside of height and athleticism there is approximately nothing to work with. He is just 9 months younger than Jones, skinnier, has a shorter wingspan, and more frightening statistical craters. His tools leave him some shot of having a successful NBA career, but color me pessimistic.

What happened to Troy Williams‘ stock? His 6’8.25″ wingspan is meh, but other than that he has the tools to be a wing stopper defensively. There are questions about his perimeter skills offensively, but if his handle and shot progress well he could be a steal. I had him as a 1st rounder pre-season and his junior year wasn’t bad, so I am not sure why he fell off the radar.

My familiarity with Thon Maker comes from the 2015 Hoop Summit, who looked like he had hands for feet and feet for hands. Maybe I am selling him short, but as far as I can tell his selling points are that he is 7’0″, young, and sometimes attempts to dribble and shoot. With such poor coordination and hands, it is hard to see him becoming good.

Juan Hernangomez is meh to me. He is a 3/4 tweener whose terrible assist to turnover ratio implies that he lacks the ball skill to succeed as an NBA perimeter player, in spite of him being an acceptable shooter. Without exceptional defense or athleticism to make up for this flaw, I remain unexcited.

Jameel Warney is the Paul Millsap flier of the draft. His NCAA statistics are not as strong as Millsap’s and he will likely not develop into a player who can make 3’s and defend the perimeter, but he has similar measurables and posted more assists than turnovers three seasons in a row as an efficient volume scorer for Stony Brook. He is a not bad under the radar sleeper in round 2.

Daniel Ochefu is the guy totally off the radar who I believe is most likely to carve out a rotation role in the NBA. He was among the best NCAA players in the country, and at age 22 is not insanely old for a senior. He has center size and does a little bit of everything. DraftExpress thinks his poor flexibility prevents him from switch onto smaller players. This may be a death knell for his NBA odds as heavy switching becomes increasingly popular, but there is enough to like to gamble on him in round 2 anyway.

Life hack: if you are Chad Ford, try swapping Malachi Richardson and Zhou Qi on your big board before the draft instead of 4 years after.

1. Dragan Bender (ESPN: 7, DX: 5)

Dragan Bender is the 2016 poster child of being far more beloved by stats than scouts. He is not an elite athlete nor does he have a go to scorer skill set, so DX and ESPN rate him below the top freshmen and Chad Ford goes as far as to rate him below Malik Pope. But his 261 minute FIBA u18 sample nets him a historically elite 17.4 according to Layne Vashro’s EWP model, which is 4th all time behind Shaq, Anthony Davis, and Nerlens Noel.

His EWP score comes with an large shaker of salt since it is such a small sample, and  FIBA has a smaller sample of future pros than NCAA to project from. But his performance is nevertheless intriguing– in 29 mins/game he posted good statistics across the board with an especially impressive 4.9 assists vs. 1.7 turnovers per game, which is amazing for a 16 year old 7’0 prospect. One of his main critiques is that he is too passive, but his stats suggest that he may have a better feel for optimal team play than scouts who criticize him.

Even without elite explosiveness, he has the size and mobility to become an elite defensive player. And even without an elite scoring skill set, his passing ability and tendency to avoid mistakes gives him a high floor and high ceiling offensively. He seems destined to be perpetually under appreciated by casual fans, but I love his potential as a player who makes intelligent, winning plays. One of the top freshmen may vault ahead of him with a strong NCAA performance, but based on current information he is the highest floor highest upside prospect in the draft.

2. Ben Simmons (ESPN: 1, DX: 2)

There are four prospects who can be argued as the top incoming freshman, but I easily favor Simmons. He has the quickness, athleticism, skill level, and (reported) intelligence to thrive as a point guard, except he has a power forward body. His physical tools and passing both look great to my eye. His primary critique is that he is a mediocre outside shooter, but he has hope of becoming a competent 3 point shooter so this is not a backbreaking flaw. Simmons stands out as Hoop Summit player with the biggest upside tail, as well as the one I am most excited to watch this season.

3. Brandon Ingram (ESPN: 4, DX: 4)

Ingram appears to be Kevin Durant lite. His level of dilution compared to the real thing remains to be seen, but he is more than 1 year younger than Simmons and 1.5 years younger than Labissiere. His mold has plenty of upside and I am putting him above Skal because I have an inkling that there is an age bias that causes scouts to underrate the age gap as these players are all being evaluated side by side. And his intersection of reach and shooting mesh for an awesome upside tail, especially given that he appears to have good feel for the game.

4. Skal Labissiere (ESPN: 2, DX: 1)

He is an explosive 7’0″ and based on John Calipari’s recent history with elite big recruits of Karl Towns, Anthony Davis, and DeMarcus Cousins, Labissiere will probably have an awesome freshman year. But at the Hoop Summit he only measured 216 pounds and 7’1.5″ long, and as an older player he has less room for growth in these categories than his peers. And while it is a useful skill, I believe his mid-range shooting tends to get overrated since scouts often use it as a proxy for overall skill level which is simply wrong.

Labissiere nevertheless seems very good, as his mediocre length does not appear to inhibit his shotblocking as he racked up 6 in the Hoop Summit. And based on his tools and short-mid range scoring, he has easily enough positives to ultimately end up #1 on my big board. He just doesn’t glow with upside the way Simmons does. I could go either way with Skal vs. Ingram, and I erred on the side of youth for a slightly contrarian perspective.

5. Jaylen Brown (ESPN: 3, DX: 3)

Brown has the necessary tools, skills, and (reported) intelligence to become the #1 overall player in the class. But he also is the player who has the greatest risk of falling flat as a disappointment. He was unimpressive in the Hoop Summit– this could have just been a bad game, but Brown may not be as good as a tabulation of his strengths would suggest. It is possible that I am being overreactive to one performance, but I rate him as clearly the weakest of the top 4 freshman at this stage.

6. Cheick Diallo (ESPN: 12, DX: 12)

Diallo is a bit undersized for a center and underskilled for a PF, but I am a buyer nevertheless. He has an awesome intersection of motor and coordination, and this enabled him to stuff the stat sheet in all three all-star games. I anticipate an awesome statistical freshman season from him. There will be some minor translation concerns, but his footwork gives him sneaky upside.

7. Jakob Poeltl (ESPN: 10, DX: 10)

The mobile 7’0″ big showed strong potential as an NCAA freshman with elite finishing, offensive rebounding, and defense. His offensive game is limited to work inside the paint, as he shot 44% FT and averaged just 1.2 assists per 40. But his finishing ability yielded a 68% FG on slightly above average usage– his offensive rebounding and pick and roll finishing nicely complement his ability to anchor the defense. There’s clear upside for him to make a positive impact on both sides of the ball.

8. Henry Ellenson (ESPN: 8, DX: 9)

Ellenson is a mobile and athletic big with perimeter skills as he can handle, pass, and make 3s. There are questions about his defense, but based on his physical profile and skill level he easily has the upside to become a star while being a defensive liability. On paper he sounds like a slightly lesser version of Ben Simmons who could easily vault into the #1 conversation, so the main question is whether he has the feel for the game to parlay his skills into production.

9. Jamal Murray (ESPN: 5, DX: 6)

The skilled combo guard skyrocketed his value with a strong Hoop Summit and Pan-American games. He can handle, pass, and shoot, and he looks like he may be this year’s (likely inferior) version of D’Angelo Russell. His primary deficiency is that his average athleticism inhibits his slashing upside in the NBA, and e has mediocre length at 6’7″. It is worth wondering whether a few strong recent performances are causing draft consensus to overlook his pedestrian physical tools, but either way he is one of the more appealing incoming freshmen.

10. Kris Dunn (ESPN: 13, DX: 8)

He has great tools, floor vision, and defensive potential. His stock is slightly hurt by the PG depth in the NBA, but his 6’4″ height and 6’9″ length give him the versatility to defend either guard position. The main concern with Dunn is if he is good enough to be a primary ball handler at the next level, as he does not have best handle and is also turnover prone. He needs the ball to capitalize on his vision, and his limited shooting range calls into question how effective he will be off the ball.

11. Zhou Qi (ESPN: 21, DX: 14)

I do not understand how we live in a world where Kristaps Porzingis is seen as an acceptable selection at #4 overall but Zhou Qi is seen as a mid-late 1st rounder in a weaker draft. He has monster measurements at 7’2″ with a 7’7″ wingspan as well as a good skill level, so he has loads of upside. He warrants some level of skepticism due to being rail thin, but he doesn’t *need* 30 to 40 pounds of muscle to succeed if his strengths outweigh his literal weakness. I haven’t scouted him enough to rank him higher, so I am being conservative by ranking him 11th for now.

12. Furkan Korkmaz (ESPN: 11, DX: 13)

Korkmaz is a skilled, athletic wing who performed well for Turkey in FIBA u19 games. He has a well rounded offensive repertoire as his shooting and cutting makes him a great option off the ball, and his passing ability and athleticism gives him creation upside. His defense is currently a weakness but he at least has the instincts and athleticism to generate a high steal rate. He has a strong complementary skill set with star upside with significant improvements to his defense and ball handling.

13. Nigel Hayes (ESPN: 20, DX: 21)

Hayes measured 6’7.5″ in shoes and 7’2″ long in 2011, which makes him slightly undersized for a PF and earns him the dreaded tweener label. But he likely has the quicks and perimeter skills to play SF, so I prefer to qualify him as a versatile combo forward. With lineups trending smaller, he could be nice value if his height deficiency receives too much attention.

14. Ivan Rabb (ESPN: 25, DX 23 in 2017)

I am a bit confused by Rabb’s standing– after the Hoop Summit his draft stock crashed as there appeared to be consensus that he is not as good as expected. Yet in the recruiting world, he remains the #5 RSCI prospect ahead of consensus lottery picks Cheick Diallo, Malik Newman, Diamond Stone, and Henry Ellenson. Further, Jaylen Brown did not tumble nearly as much in the draft world with an even worse Hoop Summit.

There are concerns about his value as a pro, as he is a dreaded PF in a C body. He currently is 6’10” with 7’2″ wing and weighs 216. But his height/length is only slightly small for a center– given that he still has room for growth, the NBA is trending small, and skinny centers often thrive defensively, Rabb has hope to thrive as an NBA 5.

What he does offer is shot blocking, rebounding, and a smooth finishing ability. He does not have the perimeter skill set of Henry Ellenson, but he does have soft hands, smooth footwork, and good touch near the rim. He has potential to be a suped up Tyler Zeller which would be a nifty asset.

I am not certain that the draft consensus is wrong. But it is so sudden and drastic, I want to see hard evidence that he merits such a fall before following suit.

15. Demetrius Jackson (ESPN: 16, DX: 15)

An athletic, skilled point guard, Jackson finally gets to show off his ability to run the offense with Jerian Grant departed to the NBA. At 6’1″ he is too small to guard NBA SG’s which places a damper on his stock and is a key quality setting him behind taller PG’s such as Kris Dunn. But unlike Dunn, he does not have concerns over ability to play off the ball after a highly efficient sophomore season sharing the backcourt with Grant. The key for his 2016 draft stock is how well he performs running the offense by himself, as big spikes in his assist and usage rates are expected.

16. Caris LeVert (ESPN: 26, DX: 19)

LeVert is not the sexiest prospect, but between his defensive versaility, outside shooting, passing, and small doses of creation he has potential to be a highly useful 3 + D wing.

17. Malik Newman (ESPN: 9, DX: 7)

By all accounts he is a Monta Ellis doppelgänger, and I do not see why NBA teams should be enthusiastic to spend a top 10 pick on a chucker whose arms are too short to defend anything but PG’s. It does sound like he will be a better shooter than Monta, so maybe he finds a way to justify a lottery selection. But his hype is likely a simple example of scoring being overrated and defense being underrated.

18. Diamond Stone (ESPN: 14, DX: 11)

I am shading Stone down from consensus because his main selling point is low post scoring, which is overrated by traditional scouts. On the flipside, it is possible he nevertheless lives up to or exceeds the hype. ESPN’s list of his strengths make his game sound well rounded in the vein of a poor man’s DeMarcus Cousins who is incidentally his NBA role model.

19. Taurean Prince (ESPN: 45, DX: 27)

Baylor tends to recruit top 100 prospects that disappoint, but Prince bucked the trend as a 3 star recruit with a surprise breakout last year. He stuffed the stat sheet in an 868 minute sample, with his PER jumping from 16.2 as a sophomore to 25.6. It will be interesting to see how well he sustains his surprising success as a senior, but he certainly is on the map as a 3 and D prospect. He alleged locked down DeMar DeRozan among other perimeter players at the Nike Skills academy this summer, and he has prototypical SF size. His defensive versatility for a competent 3 point shooter is the highlight of his prospect profile. The only question is how much his lack of elite explosiveness, creation, and passing ability will detract from his NBA performance.

20. Domantas Sabonis (ESPN: 24, DX: 22)

Sabonis displayed excellent interior scoring and rebounding as a freshman, and complements this with great mobility. His main concern is that in spite of being 6’10”, he has questionable PF size with a 6’10.5″ wingspan and limited offensive ability outside the paint. A favorable comparison would be Mitch McGary, except McGary had slightly superior measurables and over double the NCAA steal and block rates. As nice as his freshman stats are, Sabonis’s warts temper his appeal.

Note that while the top 20 includes the top international prospects in this year’s draft class, this list excludes the second tier internationals.

21. Theo Pinson (ESPN: 44, DX: 31 in ’17)

The #15 RSCI recruit in 2014, Pinson is the 3rd highest rated returning sophomore behind Justin Jackson and Isaiah Whitehead. He had limited opportunity to showcase himself as a freshman coming off the bench behind Jackson and JP Tokoto, and then a foot injury sidelined him for the majority of the 2nd half. He is skinny but otherwise he has ideal tools to defend either wing position, and he used his athleticism to fill up every non shooting/scoring stat category in his freshman sample with exceptional passing for a wing. With Tokoto gone, Pinson figures to play big minutes next year and has strong breakout potential.

22. Troy Williams (ESPN: 41, DX: 20)

Williams has a good base of athleticism, quickness, ball handling, and passing ability for a wing. There are questions about his shooting ability, as he only attempted 0.6 3P per 40 minutes as a sophomore. But he was also playing PF/C for a small Indiana team, and he did shoot 74% FT. If he can develop 3 point range, he has nice upside with the tools to be a good defensive wing and the ball skills to play on the perimeter.

23. Malik Pope (ESPN: 6, DX: 30)

Pope had a decent season for a toolsy 18 year old freshman, and he has clear breakout potential as a sophomore. He missed significant time in high school with injuries, so he may have extra sneaky upside if he can finally stay healthy for an extended time frame. But he did not excel at anything as a freshman and is merely a good not great athlete, so Chad Ford should probably relax before ranking him ahead of Dragan Bender.

24. Wade Baldwin (ESPN NR, DX 39 in ’17)

In 2012, Baldwin measured 6’1.5″ without shoes and a 6’10” wingspan. His length explains how he amassed a 3.1% steal rate for a typically low steal coach, and it gives him the versatility to defend either guard position. Offensively he posted a solid assist rate with a 2.3 assist to turnover.

The main question for Baldwin is: can he score? He is a decent but not elite athlete and did not get to the rim with overwhelming frequency. While he shot 44% from 3 and 80% from FT, his shooting was considered a weakness as a recruit and he did not attempt a high volume of 3’s. It is too soon to anoint him as a legitimately good prospect, but he is one of the top returning players to monitor in 2015-16.

25. Damian Jones (ESPN: 15, DX: 16)

He is 7’0, strong, athletic, and young for his class as he only turned 20 at the end of last June. This is a great foundation for a prospect, but the rest of his profile is lackluster. He has a highly underwhelming rebound rate for a player with his tools, and his block rate is only OK. He hardly ever gets steals, and while he vastly improved his assist to TOV rate as a sophomore it was still a paltry 0.34. His 60% sophomore FT% is not bad for a 19 year old big, and he does have a semblance of a short to mid range scoring game. But without outlier athleticism and an average 7’2″ wingspan, he did not show the skill or BBIQ to be worth more than a late 1st based on his first 2 seasons at Vanderbilt.

26. Gary Payton II (ESPN: 61, DX: NR)

The Mitten is a fascinating prospect– on one hand he is undersized to play SG at 6’2.5″ with a 6’6.5″ wingspan and an underskilled PG with many offensive limitations as an athletic 22 year old. On the other hand, he had higher block and defensive rebound rates than Jahlil Okafor last season to complement the 2nd highest steal rate in the NCAA behind Corey Walden. His measurables understate his possible defensive impact, and he is roughly next draft’s version of Terry Rozier with bigger defensive upside.

27. Jalen Brunson (ESPN: 23, DX: 27 in ’17)

Brunson seems all sorts of awesome in terms of basketball playing skills, as he is a pure point who is a smooth slasher and finisher, can shoot, plays pesky defense, and has good basketball IQ. But he is 6’2″ with a lackluster 6’3″ wingspan and average athleticism, which makes it hard to succeed in a league loaded with talented and toolsy point guards. Brunson strikes me as the type who has a shot to overcome the odds after watching him dominate FIBA u19, but I would prefer to see a signficant sample of NCAA success before getting too giddy over the possibility.

28. Chinanu Onuaku (ESPN: 27, DX: 26)

He is a completely one way defensive prospect, as he is young, toolsy, and has shown the ability to rack up steals and blocks on defense. He is a zero offensively outside of O-Rebs, but he was one of the youngest players in NCAA last year, so there is room for him to grow into a useful garbage man. He is poised for a big sophomore leap and is a player to monitor next season. The only reason I am not higher on him is because his measurables of 6’10” with a 7’2.5″ wingspan are weak for a one way defensive center.

29. Stephen Zimmerman (ESPN: 31, DX: 8 in 2017)

Zimmerman looked good in the Hoop Summit. He is a reasonably athletic 7’0″ with a balanced array of strengths who has clear potential to contribute on both ends. He is a jack of all trades and master of none, and is one of the more appealing non-lotto freshmen.

30. Keita Bates-Diop (ESPN: NR, DX: NR)

Last year’s #29 RSCI recruit only played 10 mins/game as a freshman on a team driven by D’Angelo Russell and upperclassmen. But he has nice tools for an NBA SF as he is 6’7″, long, and athletic. He can rebound, block shots, make 3’s, and he posted more assists than turnovers as a freshman. He is skinny and doesn’t seem to offer much shot creation, but he has breakout potential and I am not sure why he is completely off the radar.

31. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (ESPN: 17, DX: 17)

Mykhailiuk struggled as an 17 year old freshman, posting a 7.2 PER in 291 minutes. Now as a sophomore he will still be one of the youngest players in the NCAA, so it would not be fair to hold his small freshman sample against him given his athleticism, basketball IQ, and shooting. But he is not a great shooter (31.3% 3P% in 288 career attempts according to DX) and his short arms prevent him from being much of a playmaker defensively. He has struggled badly inside the arc his whole career, as he is not comfortable finishing in traffic and tends to throw up wild shots in the paint. He has potential for significant improvement in this area, but DX and ESPN are taking a large progression for granted in ranking him as a mid-1st rounder.

32. Grayson Allen (ESPN: 18, DX: 32 in ’17)

He is small for a SG, but his athleticism gives him upside as a scorer as he has the skill to both slash and shoot. His championship game performance blew his ESPN hype a bit out of hand, but it’s feasible that he eventually lives up to it.

33. Chase Jeter (ESPN: 51, DX: 17 among freshmen)

Jeter could be the Bobby Portis of the class, as scouts are glazing over him due to not being a great athlete or having a standout skill in spite of his #14 RSCI rating. But between his youth, size, quickness, rebounding, basketball IQ, and budding offensive skill he has a number of small edges that could add up to a quality player.

34. Jake Layman (ESPN: 35, DX: 24)

I am not sure that he has the perimeter skills to be an NBA SF, but in round 2 it is worth gambling on the possibility that he does given his athleticism.

35. DeAndre Bembry (ESPN: 42, DX: 38)

Bembry stuffed the statsheet as a sophomore for an inexperienced St. Joseph’s team, racking up a healthy share of points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. His efficiency was mediocre and he is only a career 33.5% 3P 61.1% FT shooter. But he has solid size for an NBA SG (6’6″ tall 6’8″ long) as well as the athleticism, quickness, and ball handling skills to succeed at the position should his shooting and decision making improve.

36. Justin Jackson (ESPN: 22, DX: 23)

Last year’s #9 RSCI freshman is the top rated returning sophomore. Jackson is the anti-Moreyball player: he is lethal from mid-range, which makes up a big portion of his offense. He lacks the athleticism to create layups and FT’s, and has limited shooting range as he shot just 30.4% from 3 on low volume as a freshman. He is also limited defensively as he does not have the size to make a big impact. His redeeming qualities outside of mid-range dominance are that he has nice size for a SF and is a good passer with good feel as he posted an elite assist:TOV rate as a freshman.

He has an interesting blend of strengths, but the trouble is figuring how this amounts to a useful NBA player. Mid-range shooting is not that valuable for an off the ball wing, so to become a good NBA’er he needs to develop 3 point range as well as ball skills to justify regular touches.

37. Isaiah Whitehead (ESPN: 77, DX: NR)

Whitehead had a horribly inefficient season as an old freshman PG (he turned 20 in March), as he shot just 38% on 2P and posted nearly as many turnovers as assists. But in spite of limited athleticism and quicks he showed defensive potential and is a decent shooter– if he cleans up his decision making on offense he will emerge as a viable prospect.

38. Monte Morris (ESPN: NR, DX: 39)

Morris has fairly average tools for a PG, is not a volume scorer, and even his assist rate is not stellar. But the smooth operator has posted a stunning 4.7 to 1 assist to turnover rate in his 2 years at Iowa State while making 40% 3P, 80% FT, and posting great steal and block rates for a player of his physical profile. He is a unique prospect that seems to have an outlier intersection of coordination and feel for the game.

39. Michael Humphrey (ESPN: NR, DX: 71 among sophomores)

This is my shot in the dark super draft sleeper. There is limited information on him, as I cannot even find his birthday. What I do know is that he was the #60 RSCI freshman and is an athletic 6’9″ PF. He played a bit role for Stanford last season until he was inserted into the starting lineup near the end of Pac-12 play. In 6 games and 126 mins as a starter, he averaged 15.9 pts 13.0 rebs 2.5 blks per 40 shooting an awesome 67% inside the arc before spraining his ankle and missing the majority of the remaining season. He also posted nearly as many assists (13) as turnovers (15) over the full course of the season. He is a skinny PF who shot just 11/22 FT and 0/2 3P, so he could be perceived as a very undersized center. But between his assist rate and acceptable scoring on non-rim 2’s (15/33), he appears to have hope to develop an acceptable PF skill package. The main caveat is this is all a very thin slice, and more information is needed before any strong conclusions are drawn.

40. Isaiah Briscoe (ESPN: 19, DX: 18)

Briscoe is a big, strong guard who appears to be the second coming of Andrew Harrison. He is not athletic or quick, and is bad defensively even though he has the measurables to defend SG’s. He also is a mediocre shooter. His saving grace is that unlike Harrison he appears to be a legitimate point guard with floor vision and passing skills. Overall he is bleh to me, and I am not convinced that he will prove to be the 3rd best freshman prospect on Kentucky ahead of #50 RSCI Charles Matthews.

The Rest

41. Ray Smith
42. James Webb III
43. Derryck Thornton
44. Daniel Ochefu
45. Buddy Hield
46. Denzel Valentine
47. Melo Trimble
48. Brice Johnson
49. Tim Quarterman
50. Fred Van Vleet
51. Deonte Burton
52. Devin Robinson
53. Kennedy Meeks
54. Thomas Bryant
55. Malcolm Hill
56. Allonzo Trier
57. Justin Simon
58. PJ Dozier
59. Mike Tobey
60. Gary Clark

After fervently scouting summer league and trying to update my perceptions on players, I have to admit that I am completely overdosed on information. I don’t currently feel pressure to have awesome rankings, because I feel it’s an impossible task to correctly weigh this information during the first year that I have complete access to such in depth observations. So I’m going to do my best to rank players anyway, but I think it’s more important to categorize my predictions to track which pieces of information tend to carry the most weight. I suspect it’s going to take a few years of doing this before I am actually qualified to speak with the hyperbolic confidence that I naturally convey, so as usual I’m going to note that I’m probably wrong about lots.

My process has constantly evolved over the course of the season. I started off trying to blending stats, physical profiles, an intuitive understanding of the NBA, and whatever extra details I noticed by watching into efficient evaluations.  But trying to do this for players that I have barely watched feels like complete guesswork on my end, and I don’t think it’s ultimately going to yield significant edge over what anybody else is doing. Compare Rudy Gay and Paul George: they play the same position, they have similar physical profiles, they had similar statistical ratings based on Layne Vashro’s EWP formula, and they were chosen at similar draft spots. On paper they were more or less the same level of prospect. But one developed into a top 5 NBA player within a few years of being drafted, whereas the other was consistently a black hole who underachieved on defense and sucked the life out of his team’s offense. I don’t accept that this is solely due to random variance and/or differences in the environments where they developed. There had to have been a signal in their respective play as 20 year olds that indicated that George was on a better developmental path than Gay.

My goal in Las Vegas was to watch players through the lens that style mattered more than stats, and to try to pinpoint the indicators that *might* suggest whether players are on a good or bad developmental path. I feel that I found some relevant stuff, but I shouldn’t invest much confidence in it until I have tested some of these hypotheses a bit more. So in spite of my hot fireballs of disdain for Jabari Parker’s summer league performance, I am not going to rank him hilariously low. He still can be a good fantasy player and he has as good of odds as anybody of winning ROY, and I doubt many people will be inclined to take me seriously if they see that I ranked the #2 pick who won ROY like 25th on my post-SL big board. On the other hand if I rank him 11th and he becomes the worst player in the history of bad players, I doubt anybody will accuse me of going too soft on him. So I’m going to scale my rankings back into more level headed territory for this iteration:

Stud
Joel Embiid is the stud of the draft. His talent is in a completely different stratosphere from everybody else and the only thing that can slow him down (or stop him altogether) are injuries. I really hope he stays healthy, but who knows if he can.

Feel For The Game
This is where I think I can find edge that isn’t detected by stats or scouts. It’s the area that is slippery and difficult to pinpoint, so it largely goes ignored. But I think this is likely the area that can enable the trained observer to separate the Rudy Gays from the Paul Georges, so I’m really excited to see how these work out. I should note that “feel” is a vague generalization and some indicators of good/bad feel should carry different weight than others, so not all of these carry equal weight. The ones that stand out as particularly noteworthy to me:

Good Feel
Marcus Smart is my #2 prospect, which seems a bit wild and crazy for a PG that can’t shoot, can’t consistently get to the rim, and isn’t that athletic. On paper he appears to be on a crash course to become Tony Allen or slightly better, which is not somebody you take 2nd overall in a loaded draft. Also his feel for the game isn’t pristine, as on occasion it seems to pop into his head that it’s bucket o’clock and he’ll chuck up a bad contested shot. But other than that he fills me up with warm and fuzzy feelings. He sees the floor exceptionally well, especially on defense. He has lightning quick reactions that make him an awesome playmaker on that end. He doesn’t have super athleticism to be the best man to man lock down defender of all time, but I think his advanced defensive stats are going to be surprisingly good throughout his NBA career. In summer league his feel showed in his ability to see the floor, make smart passes, protect the ball, and err on the side of bricking 3’s instead of long 2’s. I’m not sure precisely how high his upside goes but I have a feeling he will be better than people anticipate.

TJ Warren is my #3 prospect, which might be overreactive to summer league since he was clearly at the peak of his game and it’s the only environment in which I scouted him. He had some bad games against tougher defenses in college, and maybe his flaws will become clearer against NBA defenses. Further he sounds like a completely blah prospect on paper, since he’s a wing who doesn’t pass, doesn’t make 3’s, and has questionable defensive acumen. But I’m completely and utterly captivated by his approach to scoring, as he displays both unique talent (touch within 15 feet, coordination, footwork) and feel for utilizing it (he has a knack for getting easy buckets from transition + putbacks as well as minimizing his turnovers in the half-court). So I’m gambling on this to mean that 1) his inside the arc scoring will translate much better than expected 2) his defense, passing, and shooting will develop better than expected. The latter is a bit shaky because who even knows if he’s interested in anything other than getting buckets, but I feel he has the ability to develop better than random.

Nik Stauskas and Tyler Ennis are the players who have good feel but have limited quickness to capitalize on this. Ennis never blew me away when I watched him, but I felt he had some really cool statistical splits that may be indicative of uniquely good feel. Stauskas had less attractive stats but a more attractive eye test, as his ability to handle is not captured by any statistical measure. These are the two prospects who are leaning hard on skill and feel to overcome physical deficiencies, Ennis is team stats and Stauskas is team eye test.

Doug McDermott has good feel but stands out neither statistically nor to my eyes. I remain bearish on him because his limitations are plentiful.

Bad Feel
Andrew Wiggins went #1 since he is oozing with potential due to athleticism, but he screams “underachiever” to me. He seems either less interested or less good at developing his game than his peers, as evidenced by 1) his disappointing freshman production and 2) observing his progression from freshman year to summer league. His stepback jumper looked notably improved, and it’s clear that he was putting work into it leading up to the draft. But it also appeared that he’s more enamored with his ability to make stepback jumpers than he is his ability to create for others and be great defensively, which are the high leverage areas for him to become a winning player. He has the talent to leverage his athleticism to be good at all aspects of the game, but I didn’t see him moving in this direction either at Kansas or in Vegas.

The interesting caveat with Wiggins is that people commonly argue that underachievers just need good coaching and everything will be peachy. Wiggins seems to have landed in an awesome situation with LeBron and Blatt. If he doesn’t get traded, I am interested to see how much coaching and a good developmental environment can help overcome his past developmental deficiencies and move him down the correct path at an accelerated rate. I suspect that they won’t be a panacea, but if nothing else it gives him a much better shot of making me look silly for doubting him than he would by taking endless stepbacks for Flip Saunders in Minnesota.

Jabari Parker I believe takes a barbaric approach to offense, and I don’t think he has the quicks, athleticism, or shooting touch for this to end favorably for him. He doesn’t seem adaptable, he doesn’t seem aware of the relationship between his play and his team’s success, and I can’t fathom that his method of scoring translates to efficient play against NBA defenses. Maybe he has more talent than Evan Turner and Derrick Williams which will enable him to look like a fine pick in the early going, as well as a legit fantasy basketball commodity. But I believe his impact on his team’s bottom line will always be worse than the box score stats suggest. I don’t see him as player who makes plays that lead to wins. I do think he wants to win, so maybe he will leverage this desire into becoming solid defensively, creating for others, and scaling back the chucking.

Julius Randle seems more adaptable than Parker, but I don’t think he’s as talented. He’s strong, quick, and good at making difficult shots in the paint, but he has some serious deficiencies working against him. I believe mediocre PF height + length along with lackluster explosiveness and slow instincts make it nearly impossible for him to be a solid defensive player and also limit his offensive upside. If he proves me wrong and turns out better than expected, I am upgrading the importance of adaptability.

Noah Vonleh I can never bring myself to watch for more than a few minutes at a time, but he probably has bad feel based on his assist:TOV and the amount of bricks he chucks up near the rim. This is a low confidence read since it is supported by far less observation than the others.

Mystery Boxes
Dante Exum and Aaron Gordon are the mystery boxes who have great physical tools and seem to have the smarts and feel to make winning plays. But Exum has limited repetitions against respectable competition and struggled in summer league, and Gordon’s offensive game is a major work in progress. I still believe they both have loads of upside and hope they become awesome, but they also both could fall well short of expectations.

Zach LaVine was a mystery box since nobody really knew whether he can handle the ball or not, and I tried to cheat and short him based on statistical indicators. This might have been a mistake, as his summer league play makes me feel less comfortable about the idea of heavily extrapolating based on statistics. He appears to be trying hard and taking his pro career rather seriously, which I imagine is how the players like DeRozan, Lance, and Bledsoe became much better than expected after a few years of development. He still has the issue of a rail thin frame and mediocre length that prevent his upside from being boundless, but I suspect that he might progress at a faster rate than his peers.

Bruno Caboclo could be anything, he could even be a completely broken floor spacer with his long arms. He could also be somebody who never develops the instincts to be a useful NBA player. His feel does not appear to be good now, but he is so young with such a unique combination of strengths that I want to believe he can become good.

Nurkic, Capela, Saric, Inglis, Bogdanovic, Jokic, and Micic are all players who I’m just straight up guessing on based on how good they sound on paper and where they were selected. I expect these rankings to be largely inefficient, but I’m at least going to try.

3 minus D types
I recently realized that James Young and Rodney Hood are exceptionally similar prospects. They both are good, lefty shooters who are willing passers and don’t try to force the issue inside the arc. They are also both bad defensively with similar steal and block totals, and they even make similar mistakes trying to defend the perimeter. Hood is better and more polished now, but Young is almost 3 years younger with better strength and length and clearly has more upside. I don’t know that Young quite has Hood’s offensive feel, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he develops it by the time he’s Hood’s age. His assist rate wasn’t bad for an 18 year old freshman, and he definitely did try to create for his teammates off the dribble. Hood translated to summer league a bit better than I expected due to not forcing the issue on offense, and I feel Young might have done likewise. He was always the player who managed to get buckets for Kentucky against long, athletic defenses, and it might be a sign that he has better feel than he’s given credit for. I think both players landed in good situations and I’m most interested to see if 1) their offense can become good enough to justify their defense or 2) their defense can improve enough to make it possible to get their offense on the floor.

Others
I’m not sure Payton has the athleticism or shooting to become a superstar, but he has the talent to become above average on both ends which would make him a good player.

I have a good feeling about McGary. He’s a funky prospect who handles well for a big and gets more steals than most centers in spite of getting few blocks. I don’t think he has boundless upside since he’s already 22, but it probably gives him a bit more potential than you’d expect from a 22 year old #21 pick.

Kyle Anderson is incredibly smart, skilled, and long, and he gets to play for the best coach in the history of sports. But he’s also ridiculously slow and seems lazy. He didn’t look that good when I watched him in Vegas, but everybody else seems to think he looked great. Maybe I just caught him at the wrong times. At this point I’m more interested in observing than chipping in new predictions for him and his UCLA teammate Jordan Adams.

KJ I’m starting to lose a bit of faith in. I’m not sure what his offensive contribution is going to be in the NBA. He was able to do it all for a bad NCAA offense, but this doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be competent in the NBA. Also I think his defense will be good but may not fully translate without great size or quicks. He can be a good role player for sure, but I might have slightly overrated him pre-draft.

I just like Jarnell Stokes. He fills me up with fuzzy feelings inside. I could qualify this as good feel, but I’m not even sure that he has the best feel for the game. I think he’s a hard worker who is committed to being good and is already better than his 2nd round draft slot suggests.

I have given Gary Harris some flack for being bland and lacking in upside, but he makes 3’s, plays defense, and passes the ball. It’s not hard to see that adding up to a useful player. I still like Mario Chalmers as his upside (and I like Chalmers as a role player), but he’s so young maybe he can surpass that projection and be a rather attractive role player. His lack of size reflected in his summer league 2p%, but he did draw a surprising amount of FT’s.

Nick Johnson looks like a solid 3 + D PG who meshes well with James Harden.

Alec Brown intrigues me. Between him and Adreian Payne, his shooting release appears a bit quicker. He shot a slightly higher % from 3 over a slightly larger sample over the past 2 years, and while I imagine both of them will have their 3 point volume stretched in the pros I have an inkling that Brown has a bit more upside since he’s also 1 year and 5 months younger. Also Brown is taller and got more blocks in college. Payne is stronger, longer, better at rebounding, and better at finishing. I’m not sure Brown has the strength to finish at all in traffic vs. NBA bigs, but that’s probably for the best since he’s not much of a passer either. I assume that the Suns are going to try to groom him to become the Channing Frye replacement, and I can’t think of a reason why he can’t produce similar to Frye. That doesn’t mean that he necessarily can, but he’s a nice flier at 50th overall.

Tyler Johnson was probably the 2nd best player in Las Vegas after TJ Warren. I’m simply amazed by him. The fact that he was able to get as many assists, buckets in the paint, and FTA’s as he did while only turning it over 5 times in 10 games is truly amazing. He definitely goes in the good feel pile. His only good tool seems to be his athleticism, but he applied it relentlessly on the floor and really looks like he belongs in the NBA.

PJ Hairston appears to be a chucker who punches high school kids in the face, which is not the best combination of traits. I’m not completely giving up on him, but I don’t like all of his summer league 2 point bricks. Stick to your strength of 3 point bombing, Peej.