Category Archives: Mock Drafts

Draft Instant Reactions

23 Thursday Jun 2016

Posted by in Mock Drafts

≈ 22 Comments

The draft is always a facemelt as surprising results surprise and new information comes to light. I will do a re-rank based on the results, but first, here are my reactions for winners and losers.

Winners
Houston: #37 Chinanu Onuaku, #43 Zhou Qi, UFA Gary Payton Jr.

The Rockets may have hauled the most upsidey pair of 2nd rounders in NBA history. Chinanu Onuaku and Zhou Qi were my two players who I had as massively underrated and projected to go in round 2 for very flawed reasons, and Daryl Morey pounced on them when they were available with his picks.

And if that wasn’t enough, Morey instantly signed consensus best UFA Gary Payton to a 3 year deal after the draft.

This was an A+++ perfect draft for Morey. It’s amazing that he got such a loaded haul with such limited picks entering the draft.

Phoenix: #4 Dragan Bender, #8 Marquese Chriss, #34 Tyler Ulis

 

Phoenix could have completely bricked the rest of the draft after #4 and still won the draft after taking Bender 4th. While Bender has no guarantee of NBA success, his massive upside gives him franchise changing potential that none of the other #3-8 picks sniffed. Nailing a pick like this can make a franchise’s future when it works out, so Suns fans should feel great about the pick.

I’m not Marquese Chriss’s biggest fan, but at #8 overall he is likely the highest upside option on the board and #13, 28, and Bogdanovic is a reasonable price when he was perceived to be consensus best player available. He is a nice lottery ticket to append the Bender haul.

I believe Tyler Ulis will never be more than a backup PG and for all intents and purposes is a waste of the #34 pick, but that’s of little consequence after having such a great lottery haul.

Philadelphia: #1 Ben Simmons, #24 Timothe Luwawu, #26 Furkan Korkmaz

I can split hairs over Simmons vs Ingram, but I really don’t know the answer to that debate and will not quibble with the selection of Simmons at #1 overall. More importantly they were saved from themselves when both the Celtics and Timberwolves declined their alleged offer of Nerlens Noel, Robert Covington, #24, and #26 for Kris Dunn and ended up nailing the picks with two players I ranked in my top 15. Maybe Colangelo won’t ruin Hinkie’s amazing set up after all.

Memphis: #17 Wade Baldwin, #31 Deyonta Davis, #35 Rade Zagorac

After getting statistical darling Wade Baldwin at 17th, the fighting Hollingers traded a not too valuable Clippers pick (top 14 protected in ’19 and ’20 before becoming 2022 2nd rounder) for Deyonta Davis and Rade Zagorac.

Davis at #31 is likely not the value he was presumed to be entering the draft, as the only reason for him slipping that far would be that he must have some sort of injury flag. But nevertheless it is unlikely he was a bad gamble, especially given the price tag of acquiring him and Zagorac. Awesome draft for the Grizz.

San Antonio: #29 Dejounte Murray

I had Dejounte Murray as the #13 player on my final big board, and when the Spurs took him at #29 overall it confirms that other teams were more likely to be silly for passing him up rather than him being not that good or having secret red flags.

Losers:
Boston: #3 Jaylen Brown, #16 Guerschon Yabusele, #23 Ante Zizic, #45 Demetrius Jackson, #51 Ben Bentil, #58 Abdel Nader

In fairness to Boston, the Celtics were in a tough position with 8 draft picks and a limited number of roster spots to accommodate them, but they handled the situation about as poorly as they possibly could have.

I am much higher on Jaylen Brown than most statistical models would suggest, and frankly if he was taken after Bender was off the board I’d rather like the pick. But taking him over Dragan Bender is a crucial error, and with a monster offer from Philly for Kris Dunn possibly on the table adds more sting to the choice. Then from there it only got worse.

It only made sense that the Celtics would stash some Euros with their picks, but in a draft rife with upsidey internationals, the Celtics managed to use their two other 1st round picks on players I rated as 2nd rounders. Then they traded 31 and 35 for a protected Clippers pick that is worth much less than the sum of those picks. 16/23/31/35 were the money shots in the draft and they collectively converted those picks to about 25% as much value as Morey did with 37/43/UFA.

Some picks were going to need to be sacrificed on stashes, but instead they are wasting their roster spots on Demetrius Jackson (who was decent value at #45, and could be a solid backup PG), and Ben Bentil at #51 (who had no business being drafted). Somehow they also drafted Abdel Nader at #58, and I can only assume it’s because he is willing to be stashed.

But there was so so so much potential for 16/23/31/35. They could have landed 16. Wade Baldwin, 23. Any of Luwawu/Korkmaz/Dejounte, 31. Onuaku, 35. McCaw/Qi/Zipser/Ragorac/etc and thrown their late picks along with James Young and Terry Rozier in the trash, but instead they trashed the valuable picks and are wasting roster spots on four guys who are collectively worth close to 0.

This draft was a massive failure on all fronts by the Celtics. You’d think with 8 picks there would be one trade or decision to be happy with as a fan, instead Danny Ainge delivered a series of compounding errors.

Milwaukee: #10 Thon Maker, #36 Malcolm Brogdon

I may be underrating Maker by placing him 40th on my big board, but man did he look bad at the Hoop Summit in comparison to players such as Cheick Diallo, Stephen Zimmerman, and Skal Labissiere who all were drafted substantially later because this high school class was bad. Perhaps unlike that big trio he would have exceeded expectations in NCAA, but would he have exceeded them so much to justify a lottery pick? It is extremely unlikely considering his lack of athleticism and coordination. Perhaps he was worth a 1st round selection, but I can’t fathom that this was not a massive reach.

Malcolm Brogdon was not a terrible pick in a vaccuum, but taken immediately ahead of 37. Onuaku, 38. McCaw, and 43. Zhou Qi it does not look so hot.

Sacramento: #13 Georgios Papagiannis, #22 Malachi Richardson, #28 Skal Labissiere, #59 Isaiah Cousins

The Kings got off to a good start fleecing the Hornets by trading Marco Bellineli for #22 and #8 for #13, 28, and Bogdan Bogdanovic, but then they proceeded to make the selections and things became less good.

First of all, their by far two most valuable pieces both play center, and they reached for another center who is much less good at #13. Then they the overrated Malachi Richardson at #22. And while Skal Labissiere may have been a decent gamble at #28 in a vacuum, it is not so much when they are already have four centers above him in the depth chart. The Kings stayed the Kings.

New Orleans: #6 Buddy Hield, #33 Cheick Diallo

New Orleans nabbed the biggest dud in the top 9 in Buddy Hield at #6. And while Cheick Diallo isn’t the worst pick at #33, 39 + 40 is a big price to pay to move up and there were more appealing options available. Looks like the Pels are going to waste Anthony Davis’s early prime.

Others
Denver: #7 Jamal Murray, #15 Juan Hernangomez, #19 Malik Beasley

I don’t want to expressly call the Nuggets losers, because none of these picks are especially bad in a vacuum. But they are meh, meh, and meh in my book. Murray can’t play D, Hernangomez has no ball skills, and Beasley is a SG in a PG body who is a bit overrated on intangibles. All of these guys could go on to have decent careers but I don’t see enough star potential to justify the slots.

Golden State: #30 Damian Jones, #38 Patrick McCaw, UFA Robert Carter

Damian Jones was an underwhelming selection at #30 when the Golden State fans already had a Festus Ezeli from Vanderbilt to frustrate them, but given his tools he is not an awful value for the shot. Then the Warriors went on to take McCaw who I LOVE for their purposes and Carter who is my #2 UFA after Payton Jr to totally redeem themselves. This was a solidly good night for the Warriors even if not quite a slam dunk.

Brooklyn: #20 Caris LeVert, #42 Isaiah Whitehead

Both of these picks were reaches compared to consensus draft boards, but they were reaches that I can get behind. LeVert seemed massively underrated projected to go in the 40’s, and going at #20 implies that his injuries are not big red flags. And Whitehead offers sneaky potential if he cleans up his shot selection and decision making as a combo guard. I don’t love this draft for Brooklyn but it is not bad.

 

2015 Draft Recap

27 Saturday Jun 2015

Posted by in Miscellaneous, Mock Drafts

≈ 25 Comments

One of the best parts of the draft is that no matter how advanced statistical predictions become, there will always be a slippery human element that cannot be perfectly priced. This is a downside to making at home evaluations as interviews and workouts are needed for full information, and three first round talents in Christian Wood, Cliff Alexander, and Robert Upshaw went undrafted. But it also makes for stunning surprises on draft night that are fun to assess in retrospect, and it is new information that can be used to re-assess pre-existing perceptions. Here is my recap of the draft:

1. Minnesota: Karl Towns

Timberwolves convert the layup and suddenly their future is not looking bad.

2. LA Lakers: D’Angelo Russell

The Lakers nail the most important decision of the draft. They could have bungled this pick by taking any of Okafor, Porzingis, or Mudiay, but they made the correct pick who was not obvious to everybody. These are the type of decisions that can alter a franchise’s future, so the Lakers are the big winners of the draft by getting this one right.

3. Philadelphia: Jahlil Okafor

The Lakers’ gain comes at the expense of the 76ers, who were set to draft D’Angelo Russell #3 overall. Instead they settle for Jahlil Okafor, who crowds their big man rotation and is an inferior prospect. Sam Hinkie is not building a team, he is assembling a portfolio of liquid assets and Okafor will maintain trade value if he scores efficiently as a rookie. I would have preferred to see Philly trade down for Winslow+, but it would have been difficult to execute for a substantial haul, and it is possible that Hinkie perceives Okafor as the superior prospect independent of trade value.

4. New York: Kristaps Porzingis
5. Orlando: Mario Hezonja

I don’t want to be too aggressively anti-Euros because I am not certain that neither of these guys are really good, but I feel like they are both big mistakes to take over Justise Winslow among a handful of other prospects. If I had to pick one to excel, it would be Hezonja. While Mario seems a bit overhyped to me, I cannot pinpoint anything that strongly caps his upside and it is fine to take him over any non-Winslow prospect. Porzingis has more disconcerting red flags, less upside, and more potential to look like a comically bad pick a few years down the road.

6. Sacramento: Willie Cauley-Stein

Even though I rated Cauley-Stein above Porzingis and Hezonja, this pick is arguably even worse. He is not a good pairing with DeMarcus Cousins, and if the pick was only made because Cousins is going to be traded that does not make the situation any rosier. Further it sounded like everybody was scared off by his ankle and he would have slid to the teens– if they are so locked in on him, why not trade down? Horrible pick by a horrible organization.

7. Denver: Emmanuel Mudiay
8. Detroit: Stanley Johnson

These picks were fine values in a vacuum, but it was nevertheless a mistake to pass on Winslow. Mudiay is the most defensible pick in the 4-9 range, it is possible my critique of this pick will look bad in the future. Stanley over Winslow is more clearly bad– Stanley is a better shooter but Winslow is better at everything else.

9. Charlotte: Frank Kaminsky

Michael Jordan allegedly turned down a massive haul of picks from Boston for this pick. It is amazing that after all of his awful draft picks that he hasn’t reduced his self-confidence in his talent evaluation skills. I wonder if it ever occurred to him that his draft picks consistently bust and that maybe this one is not all that special when he is getting offered way too much from a successful GM who wants somebody else. He should have taken Winslow before whatever Ainge offered, but doing neither and taking Kaminsky is laughable.

If the Pistons took Winslow, this pick would actually be pretty good. Since they instead took Stanley, the Frank pick was a big failure.

10. Miami: Justise Winslow

Miami wins the draft.

11. Indiana: Myles Turner

If Hibbert is on the way out, this is a great landing spot for Turner since Vogel has proven capable at maximizing the shot blocking ability of a center with mobility challenges. I still don’t love the pick, but I can see Turner succeeding in Indiana so I am now less bearish on him than I was pre-draft.

12. Utah: Trey Lyles

Lyles is a fine pick here. As a Jazz fan I would not be particularly excited nor disappointed.

13. Phoenix: Devin Booker

After making my favorite pick in the late lotto last year in TJ Warren, Ryan McDonough followed up with a pick that I don’t like as much. But even though I ranked him #22 on my big board I don’t hate the pick, I would have ranked Booker 6 slots higher before 2 slots lower. Just goes to show how much vastly reasonable minds can differ when the draft runs so deep and there are so many angles of information to examine.

14. Oklahoma City: Cameron Payne

Much like the Devin Booker pick, I have this as a reach by 9 slots according to my big board but I don’t necessarily hate it for OKC. I feel that it’s a slightly bad pick but Payne does have a uniquely appealing flavor to him, and I am more interested in seeing how he pans out than I am making confident projections of his future. I suspect he’s overvalued here but I am a fan and don’t want to root against him.

15. Washington (via ATL): Kelly Oubre

I had Oubre as the BPA and I do not believe he would have slid to 19, so I like the Wiz giving up two 2nds to move up for him. Good move, good pick.

16. Boston: Terry Rozier

Danny Ainge’s biggest draft strengths and weaknesses were on full display last night. When there is a slam dunk pick to be made, he makes it and he correctly tried to pay up to acquire Justise Winslow in a trade every pick from 4 to 9. But once Charlotte declined, Ainge showed his weakness of reaching for busts when no clear BPA exists (see: Marcus Banks, Fab Melo, JR Giddens, maybe James Young). I rated Rozier 50th on my big board, and in retrospect that is far too low given his athleticism and defense baseline to go along with a competent jump shot. He is 1″ shorter with 1″ longer wingspan than Avery Bradley, and it is well within reach for him to become a similar caliber player which is not a terrible outcome for the #16 overall pick.

Of course the point of the draft is not to avoid bad outcomes, it is to achieve great outcomes. The Celtics already have two young, undersized 3 + D SG’s and adding a third one who upgrades neither is of little value to a team that got swept in the first round. It’s clear that they are gambling on Brad Stevens being able to parlay Rozier’s great first step and work ethic into an effective NBA slasher. The value of Rozier as a prospect largely hinges on the value of his slashing upside, and there is a coherent argument to be made that he has enough to be an acceptable selection at #16 overall. I still believe it was a reach given how limited his PG skills and decision making are for a 21 year old, but a less egregious one than my initial big board would indicate.

17. Milwaukee: Rashad Vaughn

This pick is a bit of a reach and I do not particularly like it, but Vaughn is young and can score. I suppose the Bucks believe a likely inefficient chucker has more value on a team with great defense and horrible offense.

18. Houston: Sam Dekker

This pick is solid– Dekker was on the short list of best players available and he fits well as a smallish 4 next to Dwight.

19. New York (via ATL): Jerian Grant

It is hard to fathom how a FO that acquired 4/5 of a 60 win starting lineup with FA contracts all < $10M/year has blown consecutive mid-1st rounders so badly. After spewing the #15 pick on Adriean Payne last year, the Hawks one upped themselves this year by trading down to #19 and then shipping that for a player who is proven to be bad in Tim Hardaway Jr.

This is obviously nice for the Knicks since they clearly won the trade and then took a decent prospect in Grant. It slightly redeems the Porzingis pick.

20. Toronto: Delon Wright

One of the best FO’s in the draft takes one of my favorite sleepers in Delon to replace the recently dealt Greivis Vasquez. This is a nice pick, Masai Ujiri just vacuums free pennies and nickels with almost every move he makes.

21. Dallas: Justin Anderson

Nice pick by the Mavs as they scoop a solid 3 + D wing.

22. Chicago: Bobby Portis

Great pick by the Bulls, Fred Hoiberg can do damage building an offense around a Mirotic/Portis big man tandem that provides elite spacing.

23. Portland: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Portland eventually traded this pick to Brooklyn for #41 and Mason Plumlee, and Mason Plumlee is quite the vig to just move up from 41 to 23. But RHJ is also a great pick, so this might be the one time ever that Billy King overpaying to get what he wants works out favorably for him. Still I’m surprised that RHJ fell this low, perhaps I’m underrating how detrimental he will be on offense in the NBA but it’s great value regardless.

24. Minnesota: Tyus Jones

31 + 36 is not a cheap price for 24, but with so many promising young players on rookie deals the Wolves were in a position to overpay for a slider. I like the move and I like the pick.

I don’t like Cleveland’s side unless Cedi Osman is much better than I am giving him credit for. The Cavs likely wanted to save cap room to help keep their roster together, but Rakeem Christmas was never good until he was a 23 year old senior. Also Tyus Jones, Kevon Looney, and RJ Hunter were some nice options to pair with LeBron.

25. Memphis: Jarell Martin

After going analytics heavy last year with Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes, Memphis went with traditional scouting and physical tools with Jarell Martin this year. This is a bit of a reach.

26. San Antonio: Nikola Milutinov

The Spurs went international to preserve cap space for FA, and they took the player I singled out as best international available who was also in the mix for best not injured player available. I’m always happy to see the sharpest team agree with me.

27. LA Lakers: Larry Nance, Jr.

I like gambling on Nance this late. He is an explosive dunker who stuffs the statsheet and I have mentioned a couple of times that overachieving draft slot runs in the family with his dad having 2nd highest all time win shares among picks outside of the top 16.

28. Boston: RJ Hunter

The Celtics vaguely redeem the Rozier fiasco by taking the best healthy player available, but the night is still overall bad.

29. Brooklyn: Chris McCullough

Solid pick by one of the worst FO’s in the history of life.

30. Golden State: Kevon Looney

Looney’s stock plummeted due to news that he may need hip surgery, but there’s no way this is not awesome value for the Warriors. Great pick by the defending champs.

32. Houston: Montrezl Harrell

I find this pick surprising. Harrell cannot be paired with Dwight Howard, and he doesn’t make sense as a backup between his lack of size and Clint Capela’s presence. I also don’t think he was great value, but I suppose Daryl Morey disagrees and either thinks Harrell has a chance of learning to make 3’s or might have trade value down the road since he was the only projected 1st rounder available. It’s just a second rounder so I don’t want to criticize this pick too harshly, it mostly just stood out to me as unexpected.

40. Miami: Josh Richardson

Not only does Miami get the steal of the draft in Justise Winslow at 10, but they take my favorite 2nd round sleeper at #40 who I wrote about when he was in neither DX nor ESPN’s top 100.

46. Toronto: Norman Powell

Masai scoops another penny by picking my other favorite 2nd round sleepers as part of a haul for Greivis Vasquez that also included a lottery protected Clippers’ 1st rounder. Raptors had a strong night as they clearly won the Vasquez trade and got good value on both draft picks.

Overall

The draft really fell off a cliff in round 2 after Looney went off the board, there are such few players I feel inclined to comment on. But round 1 was loaded with talent, almost everybody drafted has a strong chance of becoming at least a useful rotation player. I had a tough time finding first round picks to aggressively doubt this year, so this could go down as one of the deepest first rounds of all time.

Mock Draft 1.0

20 Tuesday May 2014

Posted by in Mock Drafts

≈ 26 Comments

Now that the lottery order is determined, I may as well whip up a mock draft.  I don’t have Chad Ford’s inside sources, but I have some sweet guesses which I assume will be of similar accuracy.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers- Jabari Parker, SF/PF

Who knows what the Cavaliers will do with this pick now that Chris Grant is no longer calling the shots.  I imagine that Cleveland will play it safe and pick from the Wiggins, Embiid, Parker trio after Chris Grant had limited success with making fancy reaches.  They are likely starting to feel pressure to add another star to appease Kyrie and avoid having him walk just as LeBron did, so it stands to reason that they will try to avoid any big risks.  This makes Embiid the least likely pick of the trio (even if I believe he is the correct one), especially if he refuses to share his medical records to prevent Cleveland from taking him.  I imagine they covet both Parker and Wiggins, but Jabari is often pitched as the safest prospect in the draft and it would not be surprising if Cleveland bought that narrative.  So Jabari it is.

Note that I would not be surprised to see Cleveland shop the pick for Kevin Love if he indicated that he was OK staying longterm.  But he would have to be extremely fond of Kyrie for this to happen.

2. Milwaukee Bucks- Andrew Wiggins, SF

It sounds like Embiid’s agent is specifically trying to steer him away from Milwaukee by refusing to share his medical records.  Would the Bucks take him anyway?  That would be a bold move that would impress me.  But I think they more likely play it safe and take whicher of Parker and Wiggins are available.  In this mock, it’s Wiggins.

3. Philadelphia 76ers- Joel Embiid, C

I imagine that this is the absolute latest Embiid drops.  Hinkie has only had his job for a year but I have been highly impressed with him and think he’s far too intelligent to pass up Embiid.  He already demonstrated that he was willing to gamble on an injured Nerlens Noel last year, and it actually works out well to pair them together.  When both are healthy they can split the center minutes, and in a way they hedge each other’s injury risk.  If one stays healthy and becomes a star, they build him alongside MCW.  If they both stay healthy and become stars, they can experiment with playing them together or trade the inferior one.  If Embiid is unavailable I would expect Hinkie to target Exum or Parker.

4. Orlando Magic- Dante Exum PG

It makes sense that Orlando would take a PG here, and as luck would have it my top 2 available players in this scenario are both PG’s.  Incidentally, Orlando seems interested in both of them as well.  I am going with Exum for them here because he seems to be the better, more coveted prospect.  But it wouldn’t surprise me if they tried to trade down to #6 with Boston and snag Marcus Smart there.  I’d be happy with either as a Magic fan, and I imagine they will walk away with one of them.

5. Utah Jazz- Noah Vonleh, PF

This is where the draft gets fuzzy.  They Jazz could look at any of Noah Vonleh, Aaron Gordon, or Marcus Smart.  I could be mistaken but I believe they are smart enough to pass on Randle.  I’d be somewhat surprised if they tried pairing Smart with Burke, and Vonleh seems like a more Jazz type of player than Gordon.  He pairs well with Favors as he can space the floor to balance Favors’ rim protection, and they get a nice 3 way big man rotation with him and Enes Kanter.  It’s a reasonable selection that makes sense.

6. Boston Celtics- Marcus Smart PG

It wouldn’t surprise me to see them shop this pick along with Jared Sullinger and/or Kelly Olynyk and lesser picks for Kevin Love.  They would pair Rondo with Love and still have a number of future Nets picks to trade for a 3rd superstar.  But they may not be willing to outbid the competition, and Love may not have faith in the Celtics’ ability to rebuild to a contender overnight.  In that instance I believe that Marcus Smart and Aaron Gordon are the top two choices for Boston since Danny Ainge loves competitive, defensive minded prospects and both qualify.  Jusuf Nurkic also looms as a sleeper candidate in this slot.  My best guess is that Ainge either takes Smart and keeps him for himself or flips him plus another pick to Orlando for Dante Exum.

7. Los Angeles Lakers- Aaron Gordon, SF

As much as the Lakers would love to trade this pick for Kevin Love, it sounds like Kevin Love may not want to play with washed up Kobe + nothing.  Further, the Wolves likely won’t be interested in just the #7 pick.  So they likely will be unable to acquire him.  Instead they may shift to trading for a less pricey superstar such as Rajon Rondo, who will be on the block if the Celtics cannot procure Love themselves and especially so if they land Exum or Smart.  Regardless of who is picking in this slot, Aaron Gordon is a fine selection since he is rated highly and is one of the top players available.

8. Sacramento Kings- Julius Randle, PF

Are the Kings the team to bite the bullet on Julius Randle?  It seems plausible that they may.  He can slide right into their starting lineup between Gay and Cousins at PF.  If Marcus Smart or Aaron Gordon isn’t available I’m not sure who else they may consider.  Perhaps Dario Saric?

9. Charlotte Hornets- Doug McDermott, SF

Adam Morrison, Cody Zeller, Kemba Walker.  The Hornets love drafting upperclassmen who post big numbers in college, so they seem vulnerable to biting the Ougie bullet.

10. Philadelphia 76ers- Jusuf Nurkic, C

Yeah, I know I already had Philly draft Embiid.  But I’d like to point out a couple of things 1) If Philly doesn’t land Embiid at #3, I imagine Hinkie is likely to take Nurkic 2) Even if they do land Embiid, Hinkie might be a “take the best player and figure it out later type.”  Bear in mind that Nurkic and Embiid are both inexperienced and foul prone, so neither will likely need > 24 mpg as a rookie.   Nerlens can play alongside them as a PF, and then the guys all hedge each other.  If they all pan out, they get a glut of trade chips.

If Philly doesn’t want to go with the plan of having their 3 top prospects all being centers, it’s hard to say who they would pick here.  I imagine they would look at KJ McDaniels, Nik Stauskas, Kyle Anderson, and maybe Kristaps Porzingis if he keeps his name in the draft.

11. Denver Nuggets- Zach LaVine, SG

I have no idea what the Nuggets would like to do here.  Kyle Anderson and Dario Saric may be candidates to be picked, except they have a glut of forwards between Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, JJ Hickson, and Wilson Chandler.  Whether they let them impact this pick is anybody’s guess.  But they need a SG and seem to be the type of team that may be seduced by Zach Lavine’s upside, so let’s roll with that.  Nik Stauskas also may be on their radar.

12. Orlando Magic- Nik Stauskas, SF

This is a good spot to take Stauskas.  If they are pairing either Smart or Exum with Oladipo, they could use some shooting to balance out the backcourt and Stauskas has the size to play SF.  He also gives them a touch of extra PG skills, which is especially nice if they land Smart and don’t have a true floor general.  He should go around here and is a nice fit, so I like this idea for Orlando.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves- Dario Saric, SF

Who knows what criteria Flip uses to evaluate talent, not to mention we have no idea whether their roster will look significantly different after a Kevin Love trade.  But SF is their weak link and this is a bit later than the wisdom of the crowd says Saric should go, so I could see Flip biting.

14. Phoenix Suns- KJ McDaniels, SF

I didn’t love the Len pick over Nerlens, but McDonough had a great rookie year as Suns’ GM nevertheless.  KJ is currently undervalued and I can see McDonough falling in love with him as a PJ Tucker upgrade.

15. Atlanta Hawks- Tyler Ennis, PG

Man are there a ton of teams set on PG ahead of Atlanta.  Ennis has a strong chance of being available, and I could see Atlanta taking either him or Elfrid Payton with hopes that they can eventually upgrade Jeff Teague.  They also may give Clint Capela, Kristaps Porzingis, or Nikola Jokic a look since they showed last year that they are unafraid to take internationals.

16. Chicago Bulls- Kyle Anderson, SF/PF

This pick is likely ending up in Minnesota’s hands if Chicago deals for Kevin Love, but if they keep it I can see them taking Kyle Anderson.  They badly need shot creation, and Kyle Anderson gives the a point forward to run the offense so they don’t have to rely on DJ Augustin if Rose can’t make a strong comeback.  He’s got a little bit of Toni Kukoc in him so it seems fitting in a way that he would land on the Bulls.

17. Boston Celtics- Clint Capela, PF/C

If they don’t land Smart or Exum early, I believe the Celtics would take either Tyler Ennis or Elfrid Payton here.  They also have a strong chance of taking KJ McDaniels if he is available.  Since none of those are options based on prior picks, let’s go with Clint Capela since the Celtics badly need rim protection to pair with Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk.  Danny Ainge normally doesn’t take internationals in round 1, but Capela may not be a bad time to start.  He may also consider Kyle Anderson, Spencer Dinwiddie, or Jordan Adams in this slot.

18. Phoenix Suns- Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C

Porzingis is a good flier at this slot to be the heir apparent to Channing Frye.  Phoenix may also consider PJ Hairston or Spencer Dinwiddie as a floor spacer to pairing with Dragic and Bledsoe.

19. Chicago Bulls- Elfrid Payton, PG

Gotta have a contigency plan for Rose not recovering and Payton is great value here.  They really should try to emerge from this draft with one of Ennis or Payton if they don’t trade their picks for Love.  Gary Harris also makes sense if they think Rose can comeback, as Rose is big enough to cross match onto SG’s and Harris’s spacing and shot creation would fit a Bulls’ need.

20. Toronto Raptors- Jordan Adams, SG/SF

Not an obvious selection here.  They may have a tough time with this pick if Phoenix, Atlanta, Boston, and Chicago pluck their board dry.  This may be the right time to gamble on Adams’ gaudy stats.  Spencer Dinwiddie would also be a decent idea for the Raptors here.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder- Gary Harris, SG

Gary Harris makes a ton of sense here.  I have him sliding due to his poor height, but Oklahoma City can afford to bite the bullet since they have a big PG in Westbrook who can match up with SG’s.  Harris could even replace Reggie Jackson as the backup PG if they cannot extend him and avoid the tax.

22. Memphis Grizzlies- PJ Hairston, SF

PJ Hairston serves the dual purpose of stealing minutes from Tayshaun Prince and supplying Memphis with much needed spacing.  He is a great fit.

23. Utah Jazz- Spencer Dinwiddie, SG

Dinwiddie would be good value at this slot and he pairs well with Trey Burke in the backcourt.  Utah could run a 3 guard rotation with Dinwiddie, Burke, and Alec Burks.

24. Charlotte Hornets- James Young, SF

Man, James Young really slid in this mock didn’t he?  Charlotte already has their college hero so I can see them gambling on Young’s scoring upside.

25. Houston Rockets- Damien Inglis, SF/PF

Tough spot for Morey here since I didn’t leave any juicy sliders for him.  Inglis makes a boatload of sense since he has good tools and he has could be a great fit alongside Dwight Howard as a stretch 4.  He seems like the type of gamble that Morey could be into without any statistical darlings on the board.

26. Miami Heat- Shabazz Napier, PG

Let’s face it,  the Heat to surround LeBron with shooting and Norris Cole isn’t cutting it as a backup PG.  Napier gives them another Chalmers type to space the floor, he’s ready to contribute off the bat, and he’s not bad value here.

27. Phoenix Suns- Mitch McGary, C

McGary gives Phoenix a 3rd flier at center to battle with Alex Len and Miles Plumlee to become the future starter.

28. Los Angeles Clippers- Jarnell Stokes, PF

The Clippers badly need a backup big man, and Stokes projects to be similar to Big Baby Davis except better at everything.  So it’s a good fit.

29. Oklahoma City- Jerami Grant, PF

Grant has slid quite a bit in this mock, perhaps OKC believes they can capitalize on his tools and mold him into a player.

30. San Antonio Spurs- Nikola Jokic, C

Jokic is a super skilled Euro big man who I have as the best player available.  It qualifies as something the Spurs would be into.