This is my finest work yet. Still not perfect, but I’d bet these rankings look fairly accurate in 5 years.
1a. Luka Doncic 6’8″ PG/PF, Real Madrid
Doncic is a point guard in a power forward body, as he is 6’8″ with a strong frame and at age 19 was able to lead Real Madrid to Euroleague championship while winning MVP.
His only flaw is that his athleticism is merely decent, but this will be of little concern if he proves to be both a skill wizard and a basketball genius. He can shoot, score, pass, rebound, draw free throws, and is an intelligent defensive player and he has clear potential to be an all-time great.
The only concern is that his shot is currently only good but not elite, as he shot 32% from 3P (on high volume of attempts) and 80% FT. If his shot does not improve, his athleticism may inhibit him from being more than Hedo Turkoglu. But he is almost certainly going to be good with strong odds of being an all-time great.
1b. Jaren Jackson Jr. 6’11” C, Michigan St.
JJJ is custom built to be a defensive stud in the modern era, as he is an elite rim protector with mobility to switch onto the perimeter. He has a good defensive IQ, a monster 7’5″ wingspan, and can cover a ton of ground making him by far the best defensive prospect in the draft.
Offensively he is more raw, but showed good shooting and handling ability for an 18 year old big. His shot has an awkward form and low release, but he gets it off quickly and it was accurate as a freshman. He is still prone to sloppy turnovers and limited creation, but he showed a budding ability to attack off the dribble from the perimeter.
At worst JJJ is an ideal 3 + D big man like a modern Serge Ibaka, and if his offense develops well he has potential to be an all time great superstar.
It’s really close between Luka and Jaren. I rate them as the top 2 prospects of the past 6 drafts.
3. DeAndre Ayton 7’1″ C, Arizona
Ayton has excellent tools for a center at he is tall, strong, long, mobile, and smooth. He is also an efficient offensive player as he uses his elite frame and body control to create easy shots inside, and is a competent shooter and an unselfish passer. He will be an interesting counter to small ball centers, as he can absolutely eviscerate smaller competition in the post.
The big concern is that in spite of ideal physical tools, he was a poor defensive player at Arizona. He had bad instincts and awareness, was often beat when he should not have been, and did not make the impact you would expect from a physical beast like himself.
But historically speaking, consensus #1 overall picks with elite stats tend to do well in the NBA. Ayton should have a really good career in spite of his flaws.
4. Wendell Carter Jr. 6’10 C, Duke
WCJ is essentially good at everything but defending the perimeter, which makes him enigmatic in an era where big man are being asked to hold their own on switches more frequently. There is some risk he is a Greg Monroe type who can not hold his own on the defensive end.
But he is not that slow, and given his high IQ it would not be a surprise if he figures out how to be good defensively. He compares statistically to players such as Tim Duncan, Chris Bosh, Karl Anthony-Towns, Kevin Love, and Al Horford so if he improves his perimeter defense enough he can be an excellent pro.
5. Zhaire Smith 6’4″ SG, Texas Tech
Zhaire is an undersized combo guard who can barely dribble, but he is by far the most athletic player in the draft and may be the best athlete in the NBA.
He has a good 6’9.75″ wingspan, good feel for the game, and a budding shooting ability. Historically nuclear athletes do not require an elite handle to make a big scoring impact, and even if his scoring does not develop well he can be a very good role player.
Zhaire is dripping with potential as an elite high floor, high ceiling sleeper.
6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 6’6″ PG/SG, Kentucky
SGA is a tall, long, silky smooth point guard who is an incredibly unique prospect.
He is excellent at running the pick and roll, as he is always in control and uses his high IQ and elite body control to either get to the rim and finish or create a quality look for his teammate with his passing. But he has a thin frame and limited athleticism, so there is some doubt as to how well this will translate to the NBA level.
Similarly he made 82% FT but his slow release and low 3PA rate makes it unclear how good he will shoot.
On defense his height, 6’11.5″ wingspan, and solid lateral mobility gives him upside as a switchable defensive player, but he was not consistently good on this end for Kentucky.
He is on the fence where it’s unclear whether he will be above or below average in creation, shooting, and defense, which makes him hard to predict. But he has excellent intangibles and a high IQ, which could be just enough to pay off the team that errs on the side of optimism.
7. Mo Bamba 7’1″ C, Texas
Bamba offers a monstrous 7’10” wingspan, decent mobility, great rebounding, and a developing 3 point shot to give an interesting 3 + D profile.
But at this moment in time his game is full of holes– he often gets beat on the perimeter, makes bad decisions in pick and roll defense, and his offensive game is limited to using his reach for easy finishes as he is raw and does not pass with a currently limited shooting ability.
Teams are betting on his off court intelligence enabling him to develop into a better pro than he was NCAA player, but there is some risk he is only slightly better than Alexis Ajinca.
8. Marvin Bagley 6’11” PF Duke
Bagley is an old school garbage power forward who has excellent athleticism and motor to rebound and finish very well. His developing shooting ability and good quickness gives him some hope of fitting in on the perimeter.
The trouble is that he had horrible defensive instincts as a freshman, and with a somewhat limited wingspan he is not a true rim protector who can block shots to atone for his mistakes.
Bagley could be the next Amar’e Stoudemire, but it’s worth wondering exactly how much that is worth. Stoudemire’s defense made him difficult to build around and Phoenix and New York had some of their best playoff runs when he was injured. Even if he stuffs the stat sheet with points and rebounds, it may not amount to wins.
9. Michael Porter Jr. 6’11” PF, Missouri
MPJ is the most polarizing player in the draft. He is a big athletic scorer who posted monster EYBL stats and may be in the mix for #1 overall had he stayed healthy and played a full season for Missouri.
But instead he had a back injury and played 2 games like a black hole, shooting 10/30 FG with just 1 assist. Even prior to these two games he had struggled to get past his man off the dribble, and looks awkward navigating through traffic and relies heavily on stepback jumpers. He is also not great laterally or smart defensively,
Nevertheless his talent cannot be ignored. He is a huge wing, and if his shot develops well he will be able to get it off at a high volume. He also uses his size to rebound and make plays on defense.
His upside is a sort of Carmelo/Durant hybrid, where it depends heavily on his shotmaking and ability to stay healthy. MPJ is a true mystery box who is one of the toughest prospects in the draft to predict.
10. Kevin Knox 6’9″ SF/PF Kentucky
Knox is a prototypical stretch 4, as he is a big wing with good shooting, handling, and switching tools. He is more of a fluid athlete than explosive, but at age 18 still has plenty of room to grow.
The main concern for Knox is in spite of his physical profile, he had a disappointing amount of rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, although this may be in part chalked up to playing in a supersized lineup for a bad coach in John Calipari. He has played better both in AAU and workout settings.
The Celtics’ recent success with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum may inspire other teams to gamble on young, big wings who were highly touted pre-NCAA, and Knox fits the mold as he has star scoring potential as he is a good shooter with a nice floater.
Knox is a gamble and there is no guarantee he amounts to anything as a pro. But if he does pan out the payoff can be rich.
11. Miles Bridges, 6’7″ SF, Michigan St.
Miles is the prototypical 3 + D wing, as he is strong and athletic with good switchability potential, rebounding, passing, shooting, and secondary creation.
The only question is how much star upside Miles offers. He has somewhat short arms with a 6’9.5″ wingspan, did not rack up many steals, and went to the line surprisingly infrequently for a player with his physical tools. He doesn’t always play like the great athlete he is, which causes some concern for his feel for the game.
Nevertheless Miles has an easy path to usefulness. And given his athleticism, star upside cannot be ruled out.
12. Robert Williams 6’10” C, Texas A&M
BobWill is a good target for a team that is feeling Clint Capela FOMO, as he has elite length and athleticism that gives him elite finishing + switchability potential in a big who rebounds, passes, and protects the rim.
But there are some questions about his feel for the game, as Texas A&M’s defense performed better with him off the court, and he needs to improve his defense for his impact to match his potential.
13. Josh Okogie 6’4″ SG/SF Georgia Tech
Okogie’s 6’4.5″ height may seem underwhelming for a wing, but he makes up for it with a monster 7’0″ wingspan, strong frame, and excellent athleticism. He also has a non-stop motor and lockdown potential as a man to man defender against multiple positions.
Offensively he is a good shooter and a decent passer, and has a good first step and handle to create shots but struggles to finish at the rim with poor body control.
Okogie projects to be a versatile 3 + D wing, and if he can improve his finishing he has sneaky upside.
14. Kevin Huerter, 6’7″ SG/SF, Maryland
Huerter is everybody’s favorite sleeper, as he is an excellent shooter with enough height, athleticism, and basketball IQ to become a solid defensive player.
He is limited by short arms, a somewhat narrow frame, and isn’t much of a shot creator or rebounder. But he may have the highest IQ in the draft, and it’s worth giving him a shot of figuring out a way to populate the rest of his game to complement his shooting. He also has excellent body control that enabled him to finish 60% of his 2P as a sophomore at Maryland.
Huerter does not have much star potential, but could have sneaky upside as a well rounded floor spacer like Kyle Korver or Klay Thompson. Even if not he still can easily be a solid role player.
15. Trae Young, 6’2″ PG, Oklahoma
Trae Young posted insane box score stats for Oklahoma, as he has a rare combination of shooting, handling, and vision and racked up monstrous point and assist totals.
But unfortunately his box score stats did not amount to major team level impact, as he gave back much of his offensive production with horrific defense and often played out of control taking a number of bad shots and attempting low IQ passes.
His lack of defensive effort and out of control style pair poorly with his awful physical profile, as his short arms, narrow frame, and merely good but not elite athleticism demand a high basketball IQ to have a great pro upside. Thus far Young has not shown nearly the level of IQ to merit a top 10 pick.
He nevertheless could be a skill wizard with enough instincts and vision to be an Isaiah Thomas level impact, but he will come with the same fit issues and playoff limits as IT as his physical limits make him easier to slow down and he can be hunted on defense. In reality he will likely be more like Trey Burke.
Trae has huge downside risk and a badly flawed upside, thus I am lower on him than consensus.
16. Troy Brown 6’7″ SF/PF, Oregon
Troy is a big, young, wing who can pass, rebound, handle, and maybe shoot.
His flaw is that he has limited athleticism and was not efficient as a freshman for Oregon. But he is still 18 on draft night, and if his skill develops he has intrigue as a versatile, multi-positional 3 + D wing.
Troy could be a good role player with sneaky weirdo upside, or he could never put an NBA career together. He is one of the trickier players in the draft to peg.
17. DeAnthony Melton 6’4″ PG/SG, USC
Melton is a combo guard with amazing vision and instincts, decent athleticism, and sorely limited skill level.
As a freshman he did most of his damage in transition, and was badly inefficient in the halfcourt. Statistically he is a doppelganger for Jrue Holiday’s freshman performance at UCLA, but his handle and shooting may not match Jrue and could result in an offensive player more like Marcus Smart.
But in the event that Melton’s skill develops well, he could be an interesting 3 + D combo guard who can play some point guard as he does have the vision and passing ability.
18. Mikal Bridges 6’7″ SF, Villanova
Bridges offer a good combination of shooting, team defense, and efficiency to fit the modern archetype for 3 +D role player.
He has decent athleticism + mobility, but there is some risk he will struggle with switching as he often gets burned by quicker wings and bullied by bigger ones. He is not much of a rebounder, passer, or shot creator, which at age 21 puts a cap on his long term upside.
Bridges should be a useful role player in the NBA, although he likely will not be much better than Justin Holiday or James Ennis. It makes him a decent mid-late 1st round choice, but there just is not enough upside to justify a lottery selection.
19. Dzanan Musa 6’8″ SF/PF
Musa offers an intriguing blend of size, skill, and instincts in the late 1st. He just turned 19, and young, big wings who can pass and shoot are often great upside targets.
That said, he has short arms (6’9.5″ wingspan), average athleticism, and idolizes Kobe Bryant. Playing like Kobe without having Kobe’s talent is not ideal. He takes bad shots and is mistake prone on defense.
Musa is one of the more intriguing talents in the late first, but if he insists on playing like Kobe it will undermine his ability. But if he can be coached and improves his basketball IQ with age, he can provide a nice payoff for a late 1st gamble.
20. Collin Sexton, 6’1″ PG Alabama
Sexton is an elite scorer as he has great athleticism and body control to be able to get to the rim and finish. The trouble is that he does not complement this with much else, as he showed disappointing passing and defense at Alabama and is not a great shooter.
Most of his upside comps are not inspiring– Iverson with less athleticism or Kyrie with worse shooting are not the most exciting players to target. Those players are flawed to begin with, and take away part of their specialness and you are left with Jeff Teague. And there is some risk Sexton’s instincts and IQ aren’t good enough to justify getting his scoring on the floor.
Ultimately Sexton’s upside is attractive on paper, but most of the time he is going to disappoint and be a challenging fit into NBA lineups.
21. Lonnie Walker 6’4″ SG, Miami
Lonnie has nice length, athleticism, shooting, and man to man defense, and projects to be a JR Smith type role playing SG.
In theory he has upside to be more, but it is hard to see his ticket there. He isn’t that skilled, that smart, or that athletic, and he plays smaller than his size as he is allergic to rebounds and free throw attempts.
22. Elie Okobo 6’3″ PG, Pau-Orthez
Okobo emerged out of nowhere to be a quality prospect, as he went from a low usage combo guard to a full fledged point guard at age 20. He has good length, athleticism, and shooting, and the parallels to Damian Lillard cannot be ignored. He has upside if a GM wants to swing for the fences in the late first.
But he also has immense risk, as he is still turnover prone, has a lower steal rate than most elite PG’s, and his 19 year old limits cannot be ignored. Okobo is a classic boom or bust who is worth a look once the lottery talents are off the board.
23. Keita Bates-Diop 6’8″ SF/PF
Bates-Diop has excellent switching tools, as he is 6’8.5″ with 7’3.25″ wingspan, and good quickness. He can shoot, rebound, and protect the rim, and is ideal as a versatile 3 + D role player similar to Al-Farouq Aminu.
But at age 22 he has limited upside, as he does not have much ball skills and his feel for the game is only OK– he has a disappointing steal rate in spite of his monster length and has shown limited vision and passing.
He has good odds of being a useful role player, but upside concerns keep him out of the lottery conversation.
24. Jarred Vanderbilt 6’9″ PF Kentucky
Vanderbilt is a functional shot and healthy foot away from being a top 5 talent. Multiple injuries to his left foot prevented him from playing much at Kentucky, and his shot is also broken.
After that he has shades of Draymond Green, as he is a point forward who is a beast rebounder and was the star of the Nike Hoop Summit. He just turned 19 in April, so if he can somehow stay healthy and develop a workable shot, he has clear potential to be the steal of the draft. Or if he stays healthy and doesn’t learn to shoot, he may be able to carve out a useful niche in the NBA.
Those are two major forces working against him, but at a certain point his strengths make him a worthwhile gamble. Major potential for a 2nd round steal.
25. Bruce Brown 6’5″ SG, Miami FL
Bruce Brown has barely acceptable wing dimensions at 6’5″ with a 6’9″ wingspan, and isn’t much of a shooter in spite of turning 22 in August.
But he is arguably the 2nd best athlete in the draft behind Zhaire Smith, and his strength helps him atone for limited dimensions to play bigger than his size.
Offensively he is further behind than you would hope for a prospect who is as old as some seniors, but he can run the pick and roll and pass.
Given his excellent athleticism there could be a nice payoff if he proves to be an adequate shooter as a defensive specialist who can provide secondary creation.
26. Donte DiVincenzo, 6’5″ SG, Villanova
Donte has a limited skill package for a 21 year old combo guard with a 6’6″ wingspan, but he is an excellent athlete and decent enough at all of the role playing things to succeed as a pro.
27. Gary Trent Jr. 6’6″ SG/SF, Duke
Gary Trent Jr. is an incredibly selfish player who often elected to take contested long 2’s rather than passing at Duke, which is why he may slide to round 2.
But he is an excellent shooter with size to guard multiple positions, and at age 19 it is tantalizing to envision how well he may thrive as an NBA role player if he proves to be coachable.
28. Jacob Evans 6’6″ SG/SF, Cincinnati
At 6’5.5″ with a 6’9.25″ wingspan, Evans has SG dimensions with underwhelming athleticism and skill level. He is a decent shooter and passer with a trace of creation ability, but he is a 2nd round talent in terms of physical profile and skill level.
He makes up for it with his excellent basketball IQ, as he is one of the smartest players in the draft. He is a good defensive player, and in spite of his physical limitations has just enough tools to hold his own on switches.
His talented is limited enough such that he can bust like RJ Hunter, but Evans has decent odds of sticking as a role player.
29. Landry Shamet 6’4″ PG/SG, Wichita State
Shamet is a big point guard who can shoot the lights out.
He isn’t much of an athlete, which limits his rebounding, defense, and slashing. But he may have enough smarts and skill to overcome his limits and be a useful pro.
30. Omari Spellman 6’9″ PF/C, Villanova
Spellman is PF sized but is strong, long (7’2″), and athletic and may be able to play some center in a pinch.
He is old for a freshman as he turns 21 in July, but he can shoot and rebound and could be a decent pro if the rest of his game develops well.
31. Isaac Bonga, 6’9″ SF/PF, Frankfurt
Bonga is a frightening combination of skinny and slow, but he is incredibly cerebral for a 18 year old 6’9″ point forward.
He reminisces of a poor man’s Kyle Anderson. Anderson has provided good value for a late 1st round selection, so Bonga may be a good value in the 2nd.
32. Kenrich Williams 6’7″ SF, TCU
Kenrich is the ideal role playing wing for the modern NBA. He is not explosive, he has short arms, and is not a high volume scorer even at age 23. But he excels at every role player aspect: rebounding, passing, defense, efficiency.
He is a decent but not great shooter, but he makes up for it with his defense. His excellent basketball IQ translates to very good team defense, and his height and lateral mobility gives him potential as a switching wing.
His warts will likely cause him to slide to round 2, where he has potential to be an elite steal.
33. Anfernee Simons, 6’3″ SG, IMG Academy
Simons is undersized for SG but not a natural PG, but helps make up for it with long 6’9.25″ arms and good athleticism. He is a good shooter, but in AAU struggled to finish inside, draw free throws, and had barely more assists than turnovers.
He has potential to be a Lou Williams type, but is going to flop fairly often.
34. Mitchell Robinson 7’1″ C, No Team
MitchRob is the most enigmatic combination of elite talent and terrible intangibles since Michael Beasley. He 7’1″ with a 7’4″ wingspan and elite athleticism, and has major potential on paper as a Clint Capela type.
That said MitchRob just might not care about being good at basketball. He committed to Western Kentucky twice and then decommitted, canceled on the combine, canceled workouts, and has generally showed little inclination to actually show up and play basketball to prove to NBA teams that he is worth millions of dollars.
If he cannot show up at this point with so much money on the line, how wise is it to worth investing guaranteed money in him? Even if he succeeds at some juncture because of his talent, he does not seem like a reliable target for any sort of max contract.
He has an excellent theoretical upside, but extremely slim odds of reaching it. He has some of the most toxic intangibles of recent draft memory, and disappointment seems inevitable with him.
35. Jevon Carter 6’2″ PG, West Virginia
Carter is a tiny point guard (6’1.5″ with 6’4.25″ wingspan) who isn’t a natural at running the offense, as he didn’t play full time PG for West Virginia until his senior year at age 22.
But he is an absolute pest on defense, rebounds much better than his size, and developed into a good shooter making 82% FT and 39% 3P in his final 2 seasons of college.
Carter is in a bad mold but has rare strengths that may enable him to succeed in a Patrick Beverley type role.
36. Kevin Hervey 6’8″ SF/PF, UT Arlington
Hervey is a prototypical stretch 4, as he has a monster 7.3’5″ wingspan and can rebound, pass, handle, and shoot.
He is not that athletic and there are questions about how well he can defend as a pro, but if he finds a defensive niche he is an ideal role playing big wing.
37. Rawle Alkins, 6’4″ SG, Arizona
Alkins is slightly undersized for a SG, but makes up for it with 6’8.75″ wingspan, a strong frame, and good athleticism. He has a good 3 +D skill set.
38. Trevon Duval 6’3″ PG, Duke
Duval has a broken shot, is highly turnover prone, and has a bizarrely low rebound rate for a player with his physical tools.
But he has good length and athleticism, sees the court well, and at age 19 still has a prayer of putting things together to become a decent pro. He is likely going to bust, but if everything goes well he has more upside than most 2nd rounders.
39. Shake Milton 6’6″ SG/SF, SMU
Milton can shoot, handle, and pass and has an excellent 7’0.75″ wingspan, but is extremely slow. He will be banking hard on his long wingspan helping overcome his athletic issues as a pro.
40. Alize Johnson 6’8″ SF/PF, Missouri St.
Johnson is an interesting prospect as a wing convert. His short arms (6.8.75″) prevented him from getting steals and blocks in college, but he moves his feet well enough to possibly convert to a big wing. He can rebound, pass, and sort of shoot which makes him a compelling flier.
41. Xavier Cooks, 6’8″ SF/PF, Winthrop
Cooks likely isn’t getting draft because he is old, skinny, and inefficient with a funky shooting form.
But he is a unicorn point forward who can handle, pass, rebound, and protect the rim with sneaky good athleticism.
42. Melvin Frazier 6’6″ SF, Tulane
Frazier has super long arms at 7’1.75″ and is a pretty good athlete, but was a complete disaster offensively until his junior season at Tulane. He never made a discernible impact on Tulane’s success in on/off splits, which is a concern for an upperclassman on a bad mid-major team.
But he has NBA tools and a workable jump shot, maybe an NBA team can squeeze more value out of him than he showed in college.
43. Vince Edwards 6’8″ SF/PF, Purdue
Edwards is a big wing who can rebound, pass, handle, and shoot. He may not have the athleticism or defense to fit in the NBA, but he led Purdue to a boatload of wins over his 4 years and was a criminal exclusion from the combine.
44. Yante Maten, 6’8″ PF, Georgia
Yante is likely too slow and unathletic to find an NBA niche, but his strength, smarts, and shooting ability give him a chance. His excellent IQ enabled him to be a very good defensive player in NCAA, so it is plausible he overachieves his expected defensive performance in the NBA as well.
45. Chandler Hutchison 6’7″ SF/PF Boise State
Hutchison has a long 7’2″ wingspan and is a pretty good athlete who can get to the rim and finish, is a willing passer, and a developing shooter. It is easy to see why he has first round hype.
But he was a complete disaster on offense until his junior year. In his first two seasons he was inefficient on low volume and hardly attempted 3’s. And he still has a sloppy handle, is prone to turnovers, has bad touch on floaters, is not a natural passer, and is not a defensive stopper either.
He has a chance of success as a pro, but his feel and skill level may be too far behind for a 22 year old with good but not great physical tools.
46. Hamidou Diallo, 6’6″ SG/SF, Kentucky
Diallo showed very little to get excited about at Kentucky, but he has long arms at 6’11.5″ and is a solid athlete. Maybe an actual NBA coach can make better use of him than John Calipari did.
47. Gary Clark 6’8″ SF/PF, Cincinnati
Clark was arguably the best NCAA player in the nation, as he was a hyperefficient garbageman for an excellent Cincinnati team.
His NBA translation is enigmatic because he is wing size, but likely lacks the quickness to defend wings or handling ability to be an offensive wing.
Clark may have enough basketball IQ to find an NBA niche, but he turns 24 in November so he has limited time to figure things out.
48. Keenan Evans 6’3″ PG, Texas Tech
Evans is a neat flier. He is a senior who is still 21 on draft night, has decent PG size, good athleticism, good shooter, and a good slasher who draws a ton of free throws.
He is not a pure PG and did not rack up many assists at Texas Tech, but had a low turnover rate, and could easily become a rotation guard in the NBA.
49. Aaron Holiday 6’1″ PG, UCLA
Holiday is a good shooter with a 6’7.5″ wingspan, solid athleticism, and flashes of creation, defense, and passing. But he is nevertheless below average at all three, and for a 21 year old 6’1″ prospect that isn’t good enough to succeed as a pro.
There is some chance he develops into a Mo Williams level low end starter or bench sparkplug, but most 6’1″ players fail and it is not great to bet on one who lacks exceptional skill, athleticism, and feel for the game.
50. DJ Hogg, 6’9″ SF/PF Texas A&M
Hogg is a big wing who can shoot and pass and may have had his talent suppressed at Texas A&M playing in huge lineups with a bad PG for a bad coach.
He is limited as an athlete and shot creator, but has a good role playing skill set.
51. Moe Wagner, 7’0″ PF/C, Michigan
Wagner is tall with an excellent shot and not much else to write home about.
He is a decent athlete who has flashes of ability to create off the dribble, but isn’t much of a passer and is soft inside as he struggles to stop opposing bigs in the paint and corral offensive rebounds.
His one saving grace is that he may have good enough feet to hold his own on switches. But he is definitely not a rim protector and is fairly one dimensional on offense.
52. Issuf Sanon 6’4″ PG/SG, Olimpija Ljubljana
Sanon is one of the youngest players in the draft and a pretty good athlete, but is more or less a pure gamble on youth. Right now he has the physical tools to be disruptive on defense, but is a complete disaster on offense and has a long way to go to become NBA caliber.
53. Ray Spalding 6’10” C, Louisville
Spalding fits an interesting mold as a skinny center, who makes up for his lack of height and weight with an excellent 7’4.75″ wingspan and good athleticism + mobility.
He lacks the height, girth, and IQ to be a true impact player on defense, but could be a switchable rotation big who finishes lobs and putbacks on offense.
54. Tony Carr 6’4″ PG, Penn State
Tony Carr is similar to Shamet– good PG size, passing, and shooting, but may be too slow and lacking in strength to survive in the NBA. He isn’t on Shamet’s level as a shooter, but may atone for it with slightly better rebounding and passing.
55. Desonta Bradford 6’4″ SG, East Tennessee St.
At this point the options on mainstream radar are so painfully limited, why not take an athletic mid-major star who is only slightly undersized for combo guard. If his shot comes along he can be a solid rotation guy.
56. Khyri Thomas 6’4″ SG, Creighton
Khyri is an undersized SG but makes up for it with long arms with a 6’10.5″ wingspan and good basketball IQ enabled him to be Big East defensive player of the year for back to back seasons.
But he was a dubious selection for that award, as Creighton’s defense was better with him off the floor than on over his three seasons. This isn’t an indictment of Khyri’s defense so much it is the ability of any 6’4″ non-elite athlete to make a major defensive impact at even the NCAA level.
Maybe he can find a niche as a 3 + D shooting guard, but his shot is merely good not great and he is sorely limited as a ball handler for a 22 year old guard prospect. More likely than not his offensive badness with outweigh his defensive goodness.
57. Devonte Graham 6’2″ PG, Kansas
Graham is a combo guard in a PG body. It is fairly disconcerting that he was a low usage role player until his 23 year old senior season, when he took on a bigger role and shot 39% on 2 pointers.
He is a good shooter with good intangibles, and there is some chance he finds a pro niche. But he has strictly bench player upside.
58. Jerome Robinson 6’5″ SG, Boston College
Robinson has mediocre length and athleticism, is bad defensively, and was horribly inefficient on offense until his junior season.
As a junior he made a major shooting leap and improved his %’s across the board. He also shot well off the dribble, ranking 91% percentile in synergy points per possession. But even a slight regression toward his prior performance and he isn’t nearly good enough on offense to justify his defense.
Teams are giving him too much credit for improving over his career, and not enough concern for lacking the natural talent to even vaguely resemble a prospect until he turned 21. He will be a major mistake in round 1.
59. Zach Thomas, 6’7″ SF/PF, Bucknell
Thomas is a big wing who can rebound, shoot, pass, and draws a ton of free throws. His physical profile is decent for a low major senior, and he could easily stick as a 3 + D wing.
60. Tryggvi Hlanison, 7’1″ C, Iceland
Need a big, warm body to cozy up to at the end of round 2? If so then Trygg is your guy!
He does typical big person things and is not overly skilled or young as he turns 21 in October. But he may just just agile enough to fit in the NBA, thus his appeal as fringe draftable.
61. Theo Pinson 6’6″ SF/PF, North Carolina
Pinson is a 6’6″ swiss army knife wing who does a bit of everything. He may not be able to shoot well enough to stick in the NBA, but is a semi-interesting role player if his 3P% catches up to his FT%.
62. Desi Rodriguez 6’5″ SG, Seton Hall
Desi is a smooth wing with a nice frame and 6’10” wingspan who can do a bit of everything with a role player skill set. He’s a sort of jack of all trades master of none, but has a decent shot of sticking.
63. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk 6’8″ SF/PF Kansas
Svi Rex almost impressively has a wingspan 3 inches shorter than his height.
He is a knockdown shooter who is otherwise sorely limited offensively, but has enough height and mobility to develop into a 3 + D if he can develop his ball skills. He only turned 21 the week before the draft, so he has a glimmer of hope of doing so.
64. Jalen Brunson 6’2″ PG, Villanova
Brunson is a tough PG who can shoot and played with good efficiency for Villanova. But his physical tools are sorely limited, and it shows in his lack of rebounds, steals, and blocks. Further, he is a good but not elite passer and there is only so much scoring impact for a player with Brunson’s physical limitations.
Maybe he sticks as a backup PG, but his upside is badly limited.
65. Grayson Allen 6’4″ SG, Duke
Allen is a good athlete in the open floor and shoots very well, and that’s about all he has to offer as a prospect.
He is slightly undersized for a SG, does not move well laterally, and struggles to explode in traffic which is why he was relegated to a spot up shooting role as a senior. He will likely get torched on defense without providing much use on offense beyond pure shooting, and would be a terrible mistake to take in round 1.
66. Bryant Crawford, 6’3″ PG Wake Forest
Crawford has solid PG tools and can do a bit of everything with nice shooting upside as he made 83% FT’s as a sophomore and 87% as a junior.
67. Justin Jackson 6’7″ SF/PF, Maryland
Jackson has a workable jumpshot and his 7’3″ wingspan and strong frame give him a clear niche as a 3 + D wing. But he isn’t that athletic or creative offensively, and he struggles to finish in the paint.
He has some chance of sticking, but will be limited as a somewhat ordinary role player.
68. Jordan McLaughlin 6’1″ PG, USC
McLaughlin is an undersized PG who makes up for it with speed, vision, shooting, and pesky defense. He has a chance to be a Fred VanVleet-ish undrafted steal.
69. Brandon McCoy 7’0″ C, UNLV
McCoy is the dinosaur of the draft, as a 7’0″ post-up big man. But he was a 5* guy who is an excellent rebounder and showed some shooting promise with 73% FT. There is likely some path where he turns into a serviceable stretch 5.
70. Daryl Macon 6’3″ PG/SG, Arkansas
Macon is a combo guard who is nearly identical to Aaron Holiday as a prospect. He is slightly older and less natural at PG, but makes up for it by being a better shooter. Why waste a 1st rounder on Holiday when you can get the same thing as a UDFA?
After this there aren’t many interesting players left. Among players currently in ESPN’s mock who were excluded:
Malik Newman (#47) is a one dimensional shooter in a PG body.
Chimezie Metu (#52) is PF sized and soft inside without the skill or IQ to be interesting.
Rodions Kurucs (#38) can barely get minutes in Europe and he is already 20.
Arnoldas Kubolka (#59) is a painfully one dimensional shooter
Kostas Antetokounmpo (#58) is an abomination at basketball and would be nowhere near draft radar if not for his last name.
A few more UDFA stabs in the dark: Chima Moneke, William Lee, Jaylen Adams, Ajdin Penava, Darius Thompson, Chris Cokley, Tyler Rawson, Jaylen Barford, Malik Pope, Dakota Mathias, Braian Angola-Rodas