Note that while the top 20 includes the top international prospects in this year’s draft class, this list excludes the second tier internationals.
21. Theo Pinson (ESPN: 44, DX: 31 in ’17)
The #15 RSCI recruit in 2014, Pinson is the 3rd highest rated returning sophomore behind Justin Jackson and Isaiah Whitehead. He had limited opportunity to showcase himself as a freshman coming off the bench behind Jackson and JP Tokoto, and then a foot injury sidelined him for the majority of the 2nd half. He is skinny but otherwise he has ideal tools to defend either wing position, and he used his athleticism to fill up every non shooting/scoring stat category in his freshman sample with exceptional passing for a wing. With Tokoto gone, Pinson figures to play big minutes next year and has strong breakout potential.
22. Troy Williams (ESPN: 41, DX: 20)
Williams has a good base of athleticism, quickness, ball handling, and passing ability for a wing. There are questions about his shooting ability, as he only attempted 0.6 3P per 40 minutes as a sophomore. But he was also playing PF/C for a small Indiana team, and he did shoot 74% FT. If he can develop 3 point range, he has nice upside with the tools to be a good defensive wing and the ball skills to play on the perimeter.
23. Malik Pope (ESPN: 6, DX: 30)
Pope had a decent season for a toolsy 18 year old freshman, and he has clear breakout potential as a sophomore. He missed significant time in high school with injuries, so he may have extra sneaky upside if he can finally stay healthy for an extended time frame. But he did not excel at anything as a freshman and is merely a good not great athlete, so Chad Ford should probably relax before ranking him ahead of Dragan Bender.
24. Wade Baldwin (ESPN NR, DX 39 in ’17)
In 2012, Baldwin measured 6’1.5″ without shoes and a 6’10” wingspan. His length explains how he amassed a 3.1% steal rate for a typically low steal coach, and it gives him the versatility to defend either guard position. Offensively he posted a solid assist rate with a 2.3 assist to turnover.
The main question for Baldwin is: can he score? He is a decent but not elite athlete and did not get to the rim with overwhelming frequency. While he shot 44% from 3 and 80% from FT, his shooting was considered a weakness as a recruit and he did not attempt a high volume of 3’s. It is too soon to anoint him as a legitimately good prospect, but he is one of the top returning players to monitor in 2015-16.
25. Damian Jones (ESPN: 15, DX: 16)
He is 7’0, strong, athletic, and young for his class as he only turned 20 at the end of last June. This is a great foundation for a prospect, but the rest of his profile is lackluster. He has a highly underwhelming rebound rate for a player with his tools, and his block rate is only OK. He hardly ever gets steals, and while he vastly improved his assist to TOV rate as a sophomore it was still a paltry 0.34. His 60% sophomore FT% is not bad for a 19 year old big, and he does have a semblance of a short to mid range scoring game. But without outlier athleticism and an average 7’2″ wingspan, he did not show the skill or BBIQ to be worth more than a late 1st based on his first 2 seasons at Vanderbilt.
26. Gary Payton II (ESPN: 61, DX: NR)
The Mitten is a fascinating prospect– on one hand he is undersized to play SG at 6’2.5″ with a 6’6.5″ wingspan and an underskilled PG with many offensive limitations as an athletic 22 year old. On the other hand, he had higher block and defensive rebound rates than Jahlil Okafor last season to complement the 2nd highest steal rate in the NCAA behind Corey Walden. His measurables understate his possible defensive impact, and he is roughly next draft’s version of Terry Rozier with bigger defensive upside.
27. Jalen Brunson (ESPN: 23, DX: 27 in ’17)
Brunson seems all sorts of awesome in terms of basketball playing skills, as he is a pure point who is a smooth slasher and finisher, can shoot, plays pesky defense, and has good basketball IQ. But he is 6’2″ with a lackluster 6’3″ wingspan and average athleticism, which makes it hard to succeed in a league loaded with talented and toolsy point guards. Brunson strikes me as the type who has a shot to overcome the odds after watching him dominate FIBA u19, but I would prefer to see a signficant sample of NCAA success before getting too giddy over the possibility.
28. Chinanu Onuaku (ESPN: 27, DX: 26)
He is a completely one way defensive prospect, as he is young, toolsy, and has shown the ability to rack up steals and blocks on defense. He is a zero offensively outside of O-Rebs, but he was one of the youngest players in NCAA last year, so there is room for him to grow into a useful garbage man. He is poised for a big sophomore leap and is a player to monitor next season. The only reason I am not higher on him is because his measurables of 6’10” with a 7’2.5″ wingspan are weak for a one way defensive center.
29. Stephen Zimmerman (ESPN: 31, DX: 8 in 2017)
Zimmerman looked good in the Hoop Summit. He is a reasonably athletic 7’0″ with a balanced array of strengths who has clear potential to contribute on both ends. He is a jack of all trades and master of none, and is one of the more appealing non-lotto freshmen.
30. Keita Bates-Diop (ESPN: NR, DX: NR)
Last year’s #29 RSCI recruit only played 10 mins/game as a freshman on a team driven by D’Angelo Russell and upperclassmen. But he has nice tools for an NBA SF as he is 6’7″, long, and athletic. He can rebound, block shots, make 3’s, and he posted more assists than turnovers as a freshman. He is skinny and doesn’t seem to offer much shot creation, but he has breakout potential and I am not sure why he is completely off the radar.
31. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (ESPN: 17, DX: 17)
Mykhailiuk struggled as an 17 year old freshman, posting a 7.2 PER in 291 minutes. Now as a sophomore he will still be one of the youngest players in the NCAA, so it would not be fair to hold his small freshman sample against him given his athleticism, basketball IQ, and shooting. But he is not a great shooter (31.3% 3P% in 288 career attempts according to DX) and his short arms prevent him from being much of a playmaker defensively. He has struggled badly inside the arc his whole career, as he is not comfortable finishing in traffic and tends to throw up wild shots in the paint. He has potential for significant improvement in this area, but DX and ESPN are taking a large progression for granted in ranking him as a mid-1st rounder.
32. Grayson Allen (ESPN: 18, DX: 32 in ’17)
He is small for a SG, but his athleticism gives him upside as a scorer as he has the skill to both slash and shoot. His championship game performance blew his ESPN hype a bit out of hand, but it’s feasible that he eventually lives up to it.
33. Chase Jeter (ESPN: 51, DX: 17 among freshmen)
Jeter could be the Bobby Portis of the class, as scouts are glazing over him due to not being a great athlete or having a standout skill in spite of his #14 RSCI rating. But between his youth, size, quickness, rebounding, basketball IQ, and budding offensive skill he has a number of small edges that could add up to a quality player.
34. Jake Layman (ESPN: 35, DX: 24)
I am not sure that he has the perimeter skills to be an NBA SF, but in round 2 it is worth gambling on the possibility that he does given his athleticism.
35. DeAndre Bembry (ESPN: 42, DX: 38)
Bembry stuffed the statsheet as a sophomore for an inexperienced St. Joseph’s team, racking up a healthy share of points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. His efficiency was mediocre and he is only a career 33.5% 3P 61.1% FT shooter. But he has solid size for an NBA SG (6’6″ tall 6’8″ long) as well as the athleticism, quickness, and ball handling skills to succeed at the position should his shooting and decision making improve.
36. Justin Jackson (ESPN: 22, DX: 23)
Last year’s #9 RSCI freshman is the top rated returning sophomore. Jackson is the anti-Moreyball player: he is lethal from mid-range, which makes up a big portion of his offense. He lacks the athleticism to create layups and FT’s, and has limited shooting range as he shot just 30.4% from 3 on low volume as a freshman. He is also limited defensively as he does not have the size to make a big impact. His redeeming qualities outside of mid-range dominance are that he has nice size for a SF and is a good passer with good feel as he posted an elite assist:TOV rate as a freshman.
He has an interesting blend of strengths, but the trouble is figuring how this amounts to a useful NBA player. Mid-range shooting is not that valuable for an off the ball wing, so to become a good NBA’er he needs to develop 3 point range as well as ball skills to justify regular touches.
37. Isaiah Whitehead (ESPN: 77, DX: NR)
Whitehead had a horribly inefficient season as an old freshman PG (he turned 20 in March), as he shot just 38% on 2P and posted nearly as many turnovers as assists. But in spite of limited athleticism and quicks he showed defensive potential and is a decent shooter– if he cleans up his decision making on offense he will emerge as a viable prospect.
38. Monte Morris (ESPN: NR, DX: 39)
Morris has fairly average tools for a PG, is not a volume scorer, and even his assist rate is not stellar. But the smooth operator has posted a stunning 4.7 to 1 assist to turnover rate in his 2 years at Iowa State while making 40% 3P, 80% FT, and posting great steal and block rates for a player of his physical profile. He is a unique prospect that seems to have an outlier intersection of coordination and feel for the game.
39. Michael Humphrey (ESPN: NR, DX: 71 among sophomores)
This is my shot in the dark super draft sleeper. There is limited information on him, as I cannot even find his birthday. What I do know is that he was the #60 RSCI freshman and is an athletic 6’9″ PF. He played a bit role for Stanford last season until he was inserted into the starting lineup near the end of Pac-12 play. In 6 games and 126 mins as a starter, he averaged 15.9 pts 13.0 rebs 2.5 blks per 40 shooting an awesome 67% inside the arc before spraining his ankle and missing the majority of the remaining season. He also posted nearly as many assists (13) as turnovers (15) over the full course of the season. He is a skinny PF who shot just 11/22 FT and 0/2 3P, so he could be perceived as a very undersized center. But between his assist rate and acceptable scoring on non-rim 2’s (15/33), he appears to have hope to develop an acceptable PF skill package. The main caveat is this is all a very thin slice, and more information is needed before any strong conclusions are drawn.
40. Isaiah Briscoe (ESPN: 19, DX: 18)
Briscoe is a big, strong guard who appears to be the second coming of Andrew Harrison. He is not athletic or quick, and is bad defensively even though he has the measurables to defend SG’s. He also is a mediocre shooter. His saving grace is that unlike Harrison he appears to be a legitimate point guard with floor vision and passing skills. Overall he is bleh to me, and I am not convinced that he will prove to be the 3rd best freshman prospect on Kentucky ahead of #50 RSCI Charles Matthews.
The Rest
41. Ray Smith
42. James Webb III
43. Derryck Thornton
44. Daniel Ochefu
45. Buddy Hield
46. Denzel Valentine
47. Melo Trimble
48. Brice Johnson
49. Tim Quarterman
50. Fred Van Vleet
51. Deonte Burton
52. Devin Robinson
53. Kennedy Meeks
54. Thomas Bryant
55. Malcolm Hill
56. Allonzo Trier
57. Justin Simon
58. PJ Dozier
59. Mike Tobey
60. Gary Clark
Dean On Draft 
Awesome work Dean. Do you have an opinion on Elijah Stewart out of USC? DX seems to think he has some 3+D potential at SG. I haven’t seen him at all, but the athleticism and D sound nice. Plus, 1.9 blocks/40PA is pretty impressive for a two guard.
Elijah Stewart is a player I have my eye on, but has too many limitations to start off in the top 60. He was a near zero on offense last season (low usage, low efficiency) and a surprisingly bad rebounder given his physical tools.
But his shot isn’t broken and the defensive package looks nice, so he could easily skyrocket up the boards with a breakout sophomore year.
Also early thoughts on how this class stacks up to years past? IMO it’s a tad underrated. The top 5 especially seem stronger than most scouts like to give them credit for; I don’t necessarily see any MVP type talent from the top 5, but as a whole I think they are likely to be super useful and versatile players that are well-suited to today’s NBA.
Agree on the top 5. Overall it really depends on how the freshman turn out which is hard to predict. Last year 14 freshmen (counting Mudiay) went round 1, including an unhyped guy (D Russell) emerging as a top 2 pick. The year before that the draft was supposed to be much better, but only 8 freshmen in round 1 hurt the depth and the top 3 RSCI were all worse than advertised and it couldn’t be salvaged by Embiid since he can’t get healthy.
This year, it’s hard to say. The top 4 freshmen all seem nice, I’d say Ben Simmons has upside to sneak up on us as a real and spectacular tanking prize. The other guys seem good enough, although at least one of them probably proves to be not that exciting.
Those guys are pretty much going to make or break the top, and I agree (with Bender’s help) they could make this underrated from a tanking perspective. But I’m pretty bearish on the class otherwise, mostly because the back end of the top 25 seems blehhhh– which non-top 10 guys are going to emerge as legit lotto picks like Looney, Lyles, Winslow, Russell, and Booker did last year? Maybe Ray Smith but the group is largely uninspiring and the 5-10 guys are plenty bustable.
So I wouldn’t expect it to be significantly deeper than average (although it is soon to say for sure– maybe we get loads of random upperclass breakouts and a few surprising froshies). But I do agree that the top is slightly underrated, could be some acceptable tanking prizes.
I’d be surprised if the draft wasn’t consistently deep at all levels.
Top 4 looks solid at the very least, and with a couple obvious potential risers, guys like Henry Ellenson or perhaps Zhou Qi, if someone should fall. (There are some others.)
And then later you have all the foreign prospects who didn’t enter last year, some of whom like Vezeknov, are more than likely legit late 1st rounders. And you have the college guys who returned. Ron Baker is like 2guard version of Chandler Parsons. (He’ll have a very similar profile with better free throw percentages. Some legit off ball ability which tends to say a lot about a player’s shooting ability at the next level, even if they are moved to an entirely off-ball role. Obviously not as tall.). Malcolm Brogdon, who’s an outstanding defender of both guard positions and shoots nearly 90% from the free throw line, meaning his shot is projectable. Also has a point guard type handle, at least in a few of the games I saw, which he doesn’t display that often.
And I like some others as well. Daniel Ochefu is a major reason why Villanova’s been successful and has NBA length. Plus the things he’s good at usually translate. Jameel Warmey is a more athletic version of Alan Williams, with the other difference being that he has a very good sense of passing.
None of those guys are likely to impact the top 20 picks of the draft. And probably not the top 25. (Not mentioning Vince Edwards because I think there’s a real chance he’s a different kind of prospect.) But they could all have places in the league. In the case of Ron Baker, I’d be very surprised if he didn’t, provided he gets opportunity.
One guy I don’t really get is Caris LeVert though. Whole Michigan team played consistently without effort last year, including LeVert when he was healthy. Plus he looked like he lacked any of the burst he had his sophomore year, either because of the foot injury, or weight gain, or more likely both. Looked like a 2nd round flyer type to me last year. Actually liked Valentine, who’s a special passer at times, considerably more.
Good call on Gary Clark. It seems like no Cincy player has ever developed a jumper, but he’s a major prospect at the 3 if he has one. Great energy. Solid head for the game.
I might be badly underrating Baker + Brogdon by leaving them off my list altogether. But even if they belong in the late 1st, they aren’t the type of players who make the draft actively good.
Ron Baker is going to turn 23 in March, and as much as I love him as a college player he is 6 inches shorter than Chandler Parsons and less athletic. He could carve out a role as a serviceable rotation player in the NBA, but I’d be highly surprised if he ever becomes a player of Parsons’ magnitude. He’s simply not the same thing when you shave off 6 inches of height, and I doubt Baker can slash as well as he cannot even get to the rim with regularity in the MVC.
Brogdon is even older, as he turns 23 in December. He has better measurables and creates more of his own shots at the rim, but it’s just hard to get too excited about these super old types unless they are in the conversation for best player in the NCAA and have a special skill set a la Delon Wright.
Not too sure how Clark succeeds in the pros, maybe as a 3 if he learns to shoot or maybe a smallish 4. Either way his profile seems slightly Millsap-like so he’s worth keeping tabs on.
Vince Edwards I haven’t seen but his stats certainly look unique. He could burst on draft radars with a breakout sophomore season.
LeVert I can talk myself into rating lower quite easily since he doesn’t seem all that upsidey. But I’d say he’s at worst a late 1st simply because he does so solidly does all of the role player things well.
Yeah the late first isn’t very exciting. Although, I do think Zimmer is a guy who could play himself into the lotto – seems like a nice mix of size, skill and feel. But his recruiting hype doesn’t really jive with him being as big of a surprise as a Looney type.
Agree- he could definitely sneak up on us as a prospect who doesn’t stand out by specializing in one thing but does everything well enough to be very good.