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17 year old Luka Doncic is currently projected to go #2 overall in the 2018 draft, and it seems absurd to discuss whether he may be the best prospect ever. But when I say best prospect ever, I really mean “best prospect of past 35ish years” because I honestly have no idea how to retrospectively rate prospects like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson, or Wilt Chamberlain.
It is not that probabilistically unlikely that any given draft will contain the best prospect of a 35 year stretch. It is akin to winning a bet on a specific number in roulette, which happens all the time. And in 5 drafts since my blog has existed, this is the first time I have raised the question. The odds of the top prospect existing in a 5 year stretch is 1 out 7, barely lower than the odds of rolling a particular number with a die. It stands to reason that in 1/7 of the sample of drafts that at least one player should raise the possibility, so this should not taken as a hyperbolic question, but rather a level headed, rational analysis of an impressively outlier 17 year old.
Why Is Doncic Special?
At age 17, Doncic is already one of the best players for the best team in the best basketball league outside of the NBA. Playing for Real Madrid in Spanish ACB, Doncic is likely the team’s 3rd best player behind Sergio Llull and Gustavo Ayon. Among the 12 man rotation, here are his per 40 minute ranks:
| MP | PTS | 2P% | 3P% | FT% | REB | AST | STL | BLK |
| 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
Seeing that 6.5 would be the median, he rank as above average at everything. And this is a roster full of former NBA players, mostly in their primes (age in parentheses): Gustavo Ayon (31), Rudy Fernandez (31), Anthony Randolph (27), Jeff Taylor (27), Andres Nocioni (37), Othello Hunter (30). And that does not include best player Sergio Llull who is a former #34 overall pick likely good enough to play in the NBA if he wanted. Or Jaycee Carroll, an exceptionally skilled Utah State grad who did not have the physical tools to draw NBA interest.
Yet this 17 year old kid is average or better relative to these players at EVERY PHASE of the game. It is one thing to be a good professional player at age 17, but to also lack any notable weakness in the profile puts him on an entirely different level.
Doncic also has elite qualities, and it starts with his skill level. He has the vision and ball skills to run Real Madrid’s offense, and is also an elite shotmaker converting 56% 2P, 41.9% 3P, and 83.8% FT. If you append with his 16 y/o ACB + Euro samples his numbers become 59.5% 2P, 39.1% 3P, 78.4% FT. These are elite percentages for a medium volume scoring 16/17 year old, and he also has great passing ability as evidenced by his assist rate. By all indications, his skill, feel package is transcendent.
He supports his incredible skill level with a great physical profile. He is already 6’8″, and has a solid frame and athleticism. This may not sound impressive on its own, but most super skilled players are much smaller (i.e. Chris Paul) and often less athletic as well (Steve Nash, Steph Curry). His height should make it easy to translate his production to the NBA, and everything else is good enough such that there is no reason to fear that he may fail.
How Can Luka Be The Best Without Elite Athleticism?
The answer is simple– elite skill level is AT LEAST as important for upside as elite physical tools. Let’s take the example of Stephen Curry, who was so frail physically that he did not even draw major conference recruiting interest as a high school prospect. Then after nearly singlehandedly carrying Davidson to the Final 4, he still went just 7th in the NBA draft because his tools were so worrisome. He is the most polarizing example of outlier skill and poor physical tools, yet he won back to back MVP’s that were both deserved. This proves that an outlier skill level can yield elite upside with even a poor physical profile.
The polarizing example of outlier physical tools and poor basketball playing ability is Andrew Wiggins. He was the #1 RSCI recruit and was picked #1 in the draft, and in his 3rd season he is only performing at a replacement level. This proves that elite athleticism is not an automatic ticket to greatness when skill is lacking.
There are other examples of players with supreme physical profiles failing, as well as questionable physical profiles flourishing due to elite skill. I could list other examples, but these two alone are enough to disprove the notion that elite athleticism should be valued greater than elite skill. Further, they strongly suggest that skill level should be valued as the top input for upside valuation with athleticism being secondary.
One may counter that for every Curry success story, there are multiple Jimmer Fredette or Doug McDermott types who flop completely. But McDermott and Fredette had nothing resembling special skill level, they merely developed enough to dominate mid-major NCAA competition as 22 year olds– a common and trivial accomplishment. Their draft hype is a failure by NBA GM’s to identify the nuances between a commonly good skill level and outlier great. This may explain why scouts gravitate toward athleticism– because they actually can detect the nuances that separate the elite from the commonly good without any statistical expertise.
As we develop increasingly good analytics to help us predict skill level with greater confidence, we should increase the importance of skill as the most valuable input and decrease the value placed on athleticism.
Doncic vs LeBron
LeBron is the gold standard for prospects in the lottery era, and it is sacrilegious to suggest that any young player may be on his level. At this point you may be thinking that his skill cannot possibly be that far ahead of LeBron, because LeBron is amazing at everything which is why he is the best.
But is LeBron really THAT skilled? He is a career 34% 3P 74% FT. His shooting is average, and there is no evidence that his passing touch is special either. He nevertheless makes a big impact with his passing because he has great vision as well as feel for when to attack vs. dish.
LeBron’s transcendent physical profile paired with great vision and IQ overpowered him as a player, and just having an decent skill level was enough to make him arguably the greatest player ever.
To compare him to Doncic, let’s consider the following:
- Is LeBron’s physical profile more transcendent than Doncic’s skill level?
- Is LeBron’s vision and IQ for an elite athlete rarer than Doncic’s height for a point god?
- Is LeBron’s skill level a stronger “weakness” than Doncic’s athleticism?
For #3 I would say no because LeBron’s shooting splits prove that his skill level is not special, and Doncic is already a decent athlete at age 17. For #2, it is hard to measure vision and basketball IQ but Doncic is approximately Magic Johnson’s height which is as tall as point gods have been made thus far. Again, no seems to be a reasonable response.
The challenging question is #1, mostly because it is difficult to isolate Doncic’s skill level from his statistics which are still a relatively small sample. And if his performance declines this season and then he does not improve at age 18, his skill level will seem less transcendent. But based on what he does so far, it is not clear that any prospect has a much better skill level than Doncic.
Granted, the top point guards such as Curry and Chris Paul are more skilled than Doncic, but that’s about as relevant as Shaq or Dwight Howard having physical tools superior to LeBron. Because Doncic’s physical profile is so far ahead of Curry and CP3 and LeBron’s skill level is so far ahead of Shaq and Dwight, it doesn’t really detract from the transcendent quality of either player involved.
Ultimately the answer to question #1 is inconclusive. And with my earlier argument that transcendent athleticism does not yield greater upside than transcendent skill, there is no clear reason to rate LeBron as the superior prospect. This is especially true without the hindsight bias of LeBron’s greatness, as he did not have any pre-draft statistical sample validating his greatness like Doncic does.
Of course this is all intuitive analysis from afar. I could be wrong, and perhaps if they were compared side by side during the draft process LeBron would clearly outshine Doncic. But it is extremely easy to argue that LeBron waffle crushes most #1 picks– you cannot assemble any compelling logical argument that Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons, or Andrew Wiggins are superior talents.
I am not arguing that Doncic is necessarily superior, rather that he appears to be in the ballpark of LeBron’s greatness. I have no idea which one actually should be rated higher. But how many other prospects can you say that for? That is the best possible assessment for a prospect, as no teenager will ever be conclusively better than teenage LeBron.
What About Ricky Rubio?
As Doncic hype builds, Ricky Rubio will be a popular cautionary tale for getting too excited over Doncic’s young production. Rubio was also a great ACB player at a young age. At 8 months younger than Doncic, he posted a similar PER (18.5 vs 18.7) and then at 4 months older he had a superior PER at 20.5 as well as more pace adjusted points per 40 (17.0 vs 16.2) all while winning ACB defensive player of the year and breaking statistical models with elite steal and assist rates.
If Ricky Rubio can do all of that and not even become an NBA all-star, am I not a psychotic maniac for comparing Doncic to LeBron? Nope, I am not!
A big key of both Doncic and LeBron’s profiles are that they have no clear weaknesses, which is awesome for players with such overpowered strengths. Rubio, however had one glaring weakness that he could not put the biscuit in the basket. During his 18 y/o DPOY season, he shot 39.1% inside the arc with the next worst 2P% on his team among regulars being Jan Jagla at 48.3%. Not only did he have a weakness, but he had an scary outlier bad weakness.
This weakness has translated to his NBA play, as Rubio simply cannot score against NBA defenses. His passing and defense have been as great as his ACB sample implied, but there is an upper bound to the defensive impact a 6’4″ player can make to counterbalance an inability to score. Thus while he was an attractive gamble that could have panned out better, it should not be a surprise to anybody that he never came close to blossoming into a top 10 player.
The counter would be that statistics do not prove that Doncic is bereft of weakness. Maybe in spite of his good but not great rebound, steal, and block rates, he proves to be an awful defensive player. Let’s go as far as to say he is as bad defensively as James Harden. Is that really a terrifying flag? Harden is shorter and showed much less skill at the same age, yet is performing at an MVP level in spite of the mixtapes of bad defense that exist. If significant defensive flags for Doncic arise prior to his draft, it would diminish his value as a LeBron type prospect but he would still be the clear choice at #1 overall.
Doncic’s strengths are so special that he needs some extremely negative gravity to preclude him from becoming great. Even if he has a poor work ethic, Tracy McGrady is an example of natural super talent with poor work ethic and he still had an excellent prime.
Perhaps I am missing some key perspective here, but I cannot envision a single rational reason why Doncic may fail to become great. The best argument against is that he is 17 years old and there is plenty of time for things to go wrong. But that can be said for any prospect, and there is nothing specific to his profile that inspires a sliver of doubt for his ability to achieve greatness. At this juncture, all signs point toward piles and piles of upside and not much downside.
Bottom Line
It may seem like a hyperbolic question to ask if a 17 year old could be the greatest prospect of all time, but the same narrative arose for LeBron at the same age. So why not Doncic? It is because the people who drive the consensus wrongfully give athleticism a significant edge over skill and statistical production, when the latter is likely more important.
And the fact of the matter is that we NEED to ask ourselves hyperbolic questions about prospects to gauge how they should be valued. Most of the value of draft picks is packed into the upside tail, and any analysis should start with whether the answer to a hyperbolic question might be yes.
If the Chicago Bulls have the opportunity to trade Jimmy Butler for the Nets 2018 1st round pick, the difference between Doncic being in the ballpark of LeBron vs an average top 3 pick makes the difference at to whether they should accept a trade with the 2018 Nets pick as a centerpiece. The difference between expecting an average #1 and a possible LeBron type prospect immensely swings the value of that pick. My take is that it would be a clear mistake to pass up a 5-10% chance of Doncic for 2.5 more underpriced years of Butler based on signals thus far.
It is possible that I am wrong, as I have only watched Doncic sparingly in highlights and he is only 17. Also it is possible that I will change my position between now and the 2018 draft, as there will be an abundance of new information to have a clearer grasp on his goodness. But based on current information, it is not an absurd question to ponder whether Luka Doncic is a transcendent prospect on the level of LeBron James, and there is no clear logical reason why he cannot blossom into the greatest basketball player we have ever seen.
Dean On Draft 
Check this move from last night match… So 4 hours after your article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTb31SGyKi4
that is absolutely filthy…holy cow.
I agree….Doncic could be very great, but the author asking if LBJ’s physical transcendence being greater than Doncic’s skill level is the most laughable thing I’ve ever seen in a basketball write up. No one can stop LBJ….not as a kid, not as a man…the same way no one could stop Shaq. Any validity of this article, and there isn’t a ton anyway….ends after that “question”.
https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=7J4pChzvGUM
on lebron’s apparent lack of skill level especially with regards to his lack of passing touch, i think you’re seriously forgetting what people raved about when he came out of high school. yes, he wasn’t an elite shooter, but his primary comp coming out of high school was magic johnson for a reason: http://www.nbadraft.net/players/lebron-james. bron is the best prospect of the last 30 years because of his transcendent athleticism AND his freakish skill level
Perhaps I should have been clearer. He is an incredible passer, but I think it is for reasons outside of skill. First he is an athletic giant which draws a lot of defensive attention and enables him to make tough passes over the defense on the move. Second he has great vision and intelligence. For the most part all NBA players are reasonably accurate passers, so with average accuracy/touch he can still be an excellent passer.
I guess I’m just curious how you’re classifying vision and intelligence. Are those not elements of skill, especially intelligence?
Passing gets murky since it is a skill and it does require vision + intelligence. So in that regard they are elements of the overall skill of passing.
But in this case I felt it was important to distinguish skill as what you can do with the ball vs. vision/IQ as what you can do with your brain. Doncic is a better shooter than LeBron and you don’t see LeBron doing fancy stuff like this with the ball:
So it stands to reason that if you charted a stat like “% of passes hitting his teammates in the numbers” i would expect doncic to grade better than lebron in that category as well. He is better at manipulating the ball than LeBron, and this is an important point to show it’s not an absurd comparison.
You are also forgetting 2 very important parts to players games…. Defense and Rebounding. High School LeBron was a very good defender and very good rebounder. I have seen nothing suggesting Doncic is above average in either.
You could also forget that
1. LeBron played against kids while Luka against grown man and 2. LeBron played way more than Luka’ 19.8 in ACB and 19.9 in Euroleague
Doug McDermott is a complete flop? Seriously you use him as an example? Have you been watching the NBA this year?
Anywy, LeBron isn’t only a great athlete – he’s one of the greatest pure athletes the human race has ever seen. Doncic might not even be the best prospect in his own draft class.
McDermott is 25 and a low low end rotation player. For a lottery pick that is a clearly disappointing outcome.
He’s leading the team in 3P% and is averaging double digits in points. Are you aware of how rare it is to become even a consistent rotation player in the NBA? Even for a lottery pick? For an 11th pick he’s not doing bad at all – he’s doing what’s expected of him.
I just feel this was an extremely lazy comparison, there are a lot better examples to use of ‘total busts’ – of which McDermott is certainly not in that category. But of course, it is pretty obvious why this comparison was used.
Finally, LeBron James is not only transcendental athleticism but also elite level skill and feel for the game. To think Doncic is in any way a more skilled player than James is absurd, perhaps in shooting but even then LeBron had a couple years of amazing shooting. I do hope he proves me wrong, however, but these comparisons are a bit ridiculous sorry to say just my opinion
Doncic is absolutely more skilled than James. He is 17 and is already a better shooter than prime James. You are being biased by the fact that LeBron is the GOAT thus believing that his individual qualities are perfect, but they really are not. Sure it is unlikely that Doncic becomes similar or better overall, but as a prospect he has a better skill level beyond a shadow of a doubt. This is not a point up for dispute.
Sure McDermott is not a total bust, but does it really make a difference whether he is a low end rotation player or a complete zero? The line between the two is exceptionally fine. In the lottery the goal is to gamble on a future starter, and McDermott is in his prime and definitely not starting quality.
Well, no matter what you say, it is certainly up for dispute whether Luka Doncic is more skilled than LeBron James! But not even as a prospect, you’re saying he is already a better shooter than prime LBJ?? Let me know when he has two straight seasons with 56% + FG%, and shoots 40% from NBA three. Let me know when he has two straight seasons with above 64% true shooting percentage. For goodness sake, he is not even in the NBA yet!! Even if you concede shooting (for the age), then Lebron is still an incredible slasher, passer, dribbler, playmaker, rebounder, finisher around the rim with solid post moves and amazing feel for the game. You might be underestimating LeBron because of his athleticism, as weird as that sounds.
You have guts to write an article like this, and I respect that, but starting at the headline you are setting yourself up for disappointment my friend. I’m rooting for Doncic but it’s way too early to make such lofty comparisons. As for Mcdermott, anyone who can lead an NBA team in 3P% should not be considered a complete flop in the same category as Jimmer.
granted we’re talking about peak lebron (as those werent really tracked before) but consider this a counterpoint:
http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=18175525
as well as this as far as him looking to see how players like receiving the ball: http://deadspin.com/its-always-nice-to-get-another-peek-at-lebron-jamess-ge-1789489560
as well as this as far as lebron doing fancy stuff goes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86_t3llnV7A
i’m just generally confused by this whole line of thought you’re going down. you’ve argued (correctly imo) that skill and IQ (to go back to your arguments for Lonzo as 1a on your board) is more important in many if not most respects than physical talent but are now are arguing that within this weirdly specific context of passing, Doncic is a better passer because he had a cool between the legs play? your premise presumes young lebron didn’t do things like that because he couldn’t as opposed to the fact that he probably didn’t need to do that to get to the rim. it also ignores – again as you’ve persuasively argued before – that IQ is probably more important ESPECIALLY to passing which is why John Stockton is the greatest passer ever while white chocolate, despite making the coolest passes ever, is not.
also to the initial premise of it being plausible that there’s a 1 in 7 chance of the greatest prospect ever being found in the last 5 years, it’s also again, just a 1 in 7 chance and significantly smaller that any given player in that sample would be a better bet than 18-year old LeBron. It doesn’t change the fact that Doncic is a special talent, and while i agree he should probably go #1 next year, it just feels like a pretty huge stretch you’re making to comp him to someone who was so good, even an NBA franchise as incompetent as the Ricky Davis-era cavs knew was a can’t miss superstar
LeBron is a great passer. I’m not trying to take that away from him or say that Doncic is better. I’m just saying that Doncic is a much better shooter and might have other subtle advantages to atone for his inferior athleticism such as niftier handles.
The actual point on “passing touch” is not that important so I shouldn’t have brought it up, bc like you said passing is mostly an IQ thing anyway.
As for everything else, yes it is extremely improbable such that any prospect is comparable to LeBron. But Doncic pings my intuition as special, special, special and I wanted to articulate how he might. Maybe not all of my points were that clear or illuminating, but I really think his upside is boundless and I don’t think there is any level of hyperbole that overstates how good he may be. Maybe I’m wrong, but I strongly believe this kid deserves attention as a possible GOAT.
Alright, so basically what you’re saying is that if Rubio could have at least learned how to make a damned layup and half consistent pull up we’d be talking about him as a top 20 or so PG of all time? And LeBron is basically 6’9″ Ricky Rubio on steroids who can finish inside with a slightly better shot?
Eh, I can see it. People guarding Rubio play like 4 feet back. They do the same thing with LBJ even though this season he’s hitting his Miami 3pt numbers.
Even Rubio hasn’t been a complete failure. At where he was picked yes, but he’s got positive VORP in all of his seasons. He would be the GOAT backup PG picked 18th or so IMO. He’s shooting 87% from the FT line, his lack of shooting is just weird to be honest. I’ve been following him and his 2pt% has gone up consistently each season maybe something will click or fall into place and he can at least force someone to guard him even half-assedly.
Now one thing that I know you always harp on is a prospect having an elite skill, is it his shooting? He’s listed as a SG. But is he? I mean he’s got almost as many rebounds as Kristaps did overseas. Idk what the average international prospect’s rebounding numbers are but if he’s a legit 6’8″ SG and has that level of rebounding which can speak to his athleticism being a bit sneaky. I originally started this comment to disprove him potentially being better than LBJ what with being a Cavs fan and all, but I keep looking at his stats and thinking WTF. There has to be a hole here and I’m not finding it.
I guess my only question would be what is his ELITE skill? What gets him on the floor? There are few “he’s basically alright at everything” players in the NBA. Tristan Thompson has his rebounding and energy, Marcus Smart has his defense, JJ Reddick has his shooting and the screen shots.
If he doesn’t pan out as GOAT what is the defining calling card that keeps him on the floor?
Once again, great article.
Thanks. Your Rubio thoughts are all spot on. Shot making is incredibly important for team success, and the warriors are so good because they always post elite eFG%. Rubio helps his teammates make shots, but when he’s not a threat to score from anywhere it really diminishes his value. And like you said– still not a failure as is a solid starter.
Kristaps rebounding was kinda bad for his size, but the fact that Doncic is in the ballpark is definitely a good sign. Whether it’s sneaky athleticism or that he doesn’t mind banging with grown men or that he is good at reading the ball off the rim, it is indicative of some quality that will help the rest of his game.
His elite skill would just be that he is an elite shooter, shotmaker, passer, ball handler all while being 6’8″ and having good feel and IQ and no major weakness. He probably won’t be a Curry level shooter, but if Curry traded a bit of shooting accuracy for 5 inches of height and more athleticism it’s not hard to imagine him getting much better.
What more athleticism? Besides being a transcendent shooter with a ridiculously fast release, Curry is WAY quicker and shiftier than Doncic is. Quickness is Luka’s main weakness, and may decide whether he becomes a star or not on the NBA level
Quickness is why he will NEVER be on the same level of Lebron James
I doubt he is ever on LeBron’s level for a number of reasons. But he can still be really amazing
Again, i think you are too quick to fall in or out of love with certain guys based on a very small sample size and the idea that Doncic may have GOAT potential based on what you’ve watched “sparingly in highlights” is a bit of a stretch.
I agree that skill is important, but when when we are looking at the best players in nba history i think the vast majority are very special athletes in one way or the other. I know Nash, Dirk, Curry and Bird are the exceptions, but those three happen to be the best shooters at their respective positions in the history of the league. Not sure that Doncic has proven enough in “sparing highlights” to put him into that conversation just yet.
I do get the point in gambling on someone’s upside, but you also have to factor in the chance of a player actually reaching that potential as well as the chance that your evaluation is off.
Am I failing to factor that the chance that my evaluation is off? I keep saying that I might be wrong and there is still more information to be gained.
Look at the top 15 of all time in BPM. It has some elite athletes: LeBron, Jordan, Westbrook, Drexler. But it is loaded with guys who dominate on skill: CP3, Barkley, Bird, Magic, Curry, Abdul-Jabbar, Harden, Duncan. Then David Robinson, Garnett, and Malone are the ones who have a balanced of both. If anything there are more skill wizards on this list. And if you pick a stat like WS/48 then it will be even more biased toward skill since win shares favor shooting and efficiency.
Other than that it’s not a small sample that he can dominate by accident. He is a 17 year old kid doing things that no tall kid has done vs adults. Yes, it is small enough such that by the time the draft rolls around I may say “nope, not a LeBron level prospect.” But it’s not small enough such that I will say “oops, he’s actually just the 3rd best prospect in this draft.” Kid is obviously special and has shown enough to have at least a sliver of GOAT equity. Like if I could bet on a 1% odds of him becoming the GOAT, I am backing up the money truck on that. That alone merits this discussion.
Great article and I agree Doncic has some best player in the league equity, my main disagreement is that Doncic is drawing dead to ever be equal to LeBron on defense, particularly in a playoff setting where he can really leverage his full physical advantages over 40+ minutes. Offensively he looks to have Harden level elite BPM possibilities though.
Thanks. FWIW I never argued that he will be close to LeBron defensively. I just think that he can atone for whatever defensive disadvantage with superior offense. Who knows, maybe he is only 0.5-1 point worse defensively and 1-2 pts better on offense. Hard to put a cap on his offensive upside with such an elite skill level at such a young age. And guards and wings are capable of making a much bigger impact on offense than they are on defense.
The best players in nba history base their game on skills on both ends of the floor, being really (REALLY) competitive as well as their physical attributes. Therefore its not fair – or accurate – to claim that these guys were simply “skills-guys”, when they were much more than that. Barkley was extremely explosive and strong, Dirk had an extremely unique combination of shooting and size, CP3 was extremely quick, strong, athletic and even had solid measurements (except for his height). And so on. In fact, very few of the all-time greats are at an actual physical disadvantage compared to nba standards and the only guys that rely entirely on their skills is probably limited to Bird and Curry.
This is not the same as saying Doncic doesn’t have a shot at becoming an all-time great because he does look like a special offensive talent and for all we know he could grow to 6’10” and turn out to be a much better athlete than expected, but if he’s merely average athletically by nba standards, i think he’ll come up short on the GOAT-list.
Barkley (6’6″ PF), CP3 (6’0″), and Dirk (just 2-4 inches taller than Doncic w/o the PG skill) simply do not have superior physical profiles to Doncic. Considering his skill level, his physical profile is excellent. Therefore it is not fair or accurate to claim he is simply a skills guy.
And yeah he probably won’t be the actual GOAT. All I’m saying is that he has a chance.
Ok realty check here, l by only 2-4 inches shorter than Dirk is real life translates to 5 inches shorter and a 6 inch shorter, (half a foot) reach!
Lol but with point guard skills..lol.??
This entire article just demonstrates your implicit bias for this Luka kid and thorough lack of basketball knowledge.
I bill bet you $1,000 that Luca will never reach Wiggins 2017 scoring numbers in his entire career.
Most importantly, because he will struggle to defend in the NBA, I doubt his tiny frame will also allow how to stay healthy, when he is actually on the court. I won’t go so far as to call him a defensive liability yet, but he will definitely struggle to guard fast shooting guard and be over powered by virtually all small forwards.
I think he will be Rubio 2.0, often injured and when healthy an OK player.
But to say that Lebron wasn’t a good player at 17 is arguably the dummest thing I have ever heard.
I am more of an anti-Lebron fan, but even I have to admit that he may have been the greatest 17 year old basketball player of all time and would easily put Durant, Wall, Wiggins, Mello and Chris Pall ahead of him at age 18 as well as possibly Parker, Embiid, Shaq and possibly Karl Anthony Towns as he was amazing from age 17 onwards.
I would place him behind the number 1 prospect, RJ Barrett Jr. who turns 17 this June to be honest and doubt he would be in anywhere near the he top 20 prospects of all time, let alone number 1.
I am not even including great prospects like Oden who had the skills and potential but flammed out before reaching them. If you compared an 18 year old Greg Oden vs this kid it would not be pretty.
You had me stop reading this article when you said there’s no evidence that lebron is a good passer…
I never said that. I said there’s no evidence the TOUCH on his passing is special. My next sentence was that he obviously makes a big impact overall with his passing because of his other qualities. Perhaps it was unclear but I definitely believe LeBron is a great passer.
Dean, great stuff per usual. Have you thought at all about coming on my podcast, Ode to Oden? I would really love to have you on. Please let me know if you’re interested.
I’m not saying that elite high schoolers in the US don’t play against good competition but this kid seems to have been playing at least some variant of “Pro” ball since he was 13ish. Therefore, to me he’s actually closer to his full potential than most people here are realizing (just like Ricky Rubio was – I’ll never forget that Gold Medal game because it was the best performance I’ve ever seen from someone that age in any sport as Rubio absolutely went toe to toe with legends while still 16). Insert a 13 year old Lebron James in that system and see what happens. I mean shit Lebron played for a local high school 5 months out of the year for 4 years straight. I’m not knocking Doncic at all and indeed he has all the makings of a great young player, but I think he’s also the product of accelerative learning/training which US players just don’t have as much of over here. Elton Brand played for Peekskill High School. The resources (coaching, facilities, training regimen) of FC Barcelona and Peekskill/Mt. Vernon/wherever are absurdly disparate. It seems at least possible that if you shipped some US players overseas from 13-18 then you might see dudes appreciably more elite than Doncic. Playing with older guys is also probably instrumental in raising his basketball IQ, and US players don’t have this experience. ESPN did a piece on the Ball household. Their training was basically dips, pull-ups, and shooting in a medium sized back yard after school with pops overlooking. I could be dead wrong but I think a guy like Lonzo might have more upside simply because his training was so much more primitive. Will be very interesting to see how it unfolds.
All of the quants I know say that age is a far greater predictor than experience. Doncic is a 17 year old kid, he just recently hit puberty. How could he possibly be anywhere near his peak yet?
Wow this is absolute trash. 1st and last article I’ll read on this joke of a website.
Reading this piece was infuriating. The comments made are so divorced from any sort of intimate knowledge of what basketball skill/ability are that it’s not even worth considering.
The idea of skill is relative. You could be the most “skilled” person in the basketball world (handle, shooting ability, foot work, touch, etc.) but if you lack the physical tools, athleticism, and quickness needed to execute it doesn’t matter. On a basic level, what makes NBA players incredible is that they dominate the general pool of players athletically. Even the worst NBA athlete is on a level far beyond most players in Europe. In essence, there is a baseline physical profile necessary to have any hope of success in the NBA.
As far as skills go, Lebron far outstrips Doncic as a prospect for the simple reason that he has a larger foundation (athletically) for his skills to be effective. We’ve seen plenty of prospects shoot lights out or be efficient finishing at the rim overseas, however the question still remains: Can you do it over NBA length/athleticism/quickness? This is the single most important offensive question. With Lebron there was no question, with Doncic there are questions.
As far as players like Jimmer and McDermott go, they clearly can’t operate anywhere near as effectively offensively against NBA talent. It’s not that they aren’t skilled. They haven’t figured out how to get their shot off efficiently in NBA situations. They may never be able to outside of spot-up/closeout/cut situations because they lack the quickness and athleticism of Curry (yes Steph Curry is quite quick and is athletic, as was Nash).
Skill is great, but it’s super relative. Kemba Walker is more skilled in terms of handle, shooting mechanics, and foot work than Mike Conley, but Conley has better size and manages to be more efficient on both ends at what he does within the context of his team.
Athleticism will always provide more upside because the best players and most impactful players have great athleticism and great physical profiles. Having size and athleticism gives you a larger margin for error every night. Of the top 10 players in the league every single one has plus-size and every single one has either plus speed or athleticism. If you study teams that go far in the playoffs they always have multiple wing players with plus size and athleticism.
Luka is a great prospect. I love how he plays the game, but you have to have realistic expectations. He will be a good NBA player and hopefully a great one, but relax with comparisons to top 25 players of all time.
P.S Do research on T-Mac, his work ethic was incredible, particularly in Orlando.
Thank you so much for adding that ps note about Tmac. When I read this article I thought the author was nuts for what he said about Tracy. During his stint in Toronto when he was just starting his NBA career, his coach pretty much pulled him under his wing and had him on an intense training regimen so that he could become an elite talent in the NBA.
I think I lot of people perceive Tmac as being lazy because he looks like he’s not really trying when he plays. But that’s part of what makes him great. His play on the court seemed so effortless, that was part of the allure he possessed. I would rather have somebody who can put up 30 without even trying than somebody who has to struggle to get 25 if I was a GM.
I find it shocking that you admit you have actually hardly seen him play. Arguing this long and hard based on stats and numbers and a few highlights, that is not professional. The minimum you have to do (and you can get ACB and Euroleague games in the US, if you want) is watch him, over and over, to get a clear idea.
You have no excuse, it is amazing you can feel you can get away with this article without having done so.
Doncic is very good and of course a Final Four winning NCAA team is way inferior to the best 60 European teams, maybe more. The key for his success will be how he handles competitive environments when he is fully responsible for a team’s results. I personally feel he will have a solid NBA career, but I am not sure he’ll ever be an all-star, unless he is also able to continue to improve on what he already has.
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Best prospect ever? 🤔 Its hard for me to regard to him as the best prospect in the last 2 years! I think that trophy belongs to KAT… If a healthy Joel Embiid becomes a constant we can stop the best prospect comparison at pick 3 of 2014. For a wing player, I don’t put his potential in the same conversation as Andrew Wiggins… he’s turning a corner to becoming an elite level player already. Best prospect ever? Absolutely not. For the 2018 draft? I’d definitely like to see him and Michael Porter share a gym. Lula is an intriguing player, but I do put a special emphasis on athleticism when talking elite, modern NBA basketball. I don’t think this kid is a ‘best ever’ prospect though. Good blend of Gordon Hayward, who I really like, and Dario Saric, who played in the same league at a young age successfully.
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Dean,
If I’m to believe all these reporters’ “scouts are saying that…” then scouts tend to see skill deficits as areas for improvement–often with alluringly unknown upside–while they see below-average physical traits as dead-end limitations. It’s not crazy. No, Josh Jackson probably won’t improve his FT shooting as much as Paul Pierce did—but maybe it’s not impossible? On the other hand, no amount of dedication and expert training techniques and awareness is going to make McDermott quick enough to be a lockdown perimeter defender.
That said, distinguishing skill from athleticism seems problematic to me. Are body control and coordination and the ability to use both hands and “touch” not examples of athleticism? Bird and Magic were super elite in that respect, even if they didn’t jump very high or run from A to B as fast as others. And Harden’s ability to change direction and vary his speed step by step are otherworldly. Most NBA players don’t have so many gears or such sensitive breaks.
It’s not a question of semantics. I think terminology in these cases can do a lot to clarify or obfuscate. Sometimes we end up measuring the wrong things or not seeing where success comes from.
M.
P.S. though I think segregating player success as skill-based, athleticism-based, and hybrid is quite flawed (it’s all hybrid), even then your historical groupings are a bit strange. Kareem was a super long, bouncy, graceful, coordinated 7’2″ similar to…almost no one. Basically it’s a two person club of Kareem and Embiid. Meanwhile, Barkley was a top top tier NBA athlete—according to Tim Grover, the most athletic player he ever trained. Speaking of measuring the wrong things, yeah, Barkley was short, but consider how easily he went straight up, without gathering, and dunked with two hands. Whatever he lacked in height, he made up for with that athleticism and freaky-long arms.
Super skilled players are free to improve their skill as much as the unskilled ones. Nobody saw Steph Curry as a 45% NBA 3P shooter on extremely high volume, yet it has happened and he is one of the top players in the league.
Athleticism isn’t a pre-requisite to be great if your skill level is strong enough, and it doesn’t insure greatness if your skill level is weak enough.
Scouts just suck at discerning skill level which is why they stick to what they can discern: athleticism.
And of course there are other tools that factor in like height, length, strength, etc. LeBron is LeBron because of his body paired with his athleticism. But you can segregate to physical tools vs skills and the point still stands. Athleticism is simply the tool that receives the most attention for upside projections in the draft.
I think that’s a good point; we see a prospect’s weakness and figure, can that be improved, even turned into a strength? We’re perhaps less inclined to wonder if an 82% FT shooter can become an 88% FT shooter, if a great college shooter like Steph or Nash can become historically great.
But I think it’s not just that. We’re much better at projecting the development of physical tools. We can look at a skinny 19 year old Durant and not worry about him not being able to bench 185lbs, because we know how to put 40 lbs of muscle on him over the course of 6 or 7 years. But why isn’t MKG a 40% three-point shooter? By all accounts he’s a great guy, works his ass off. Why did Kemba and Kawhi learn to shoot 3s, but not Rose and MKG and Rondo? We can’t *see* the ultimate ceiling of a college shooter or a passer nearly as well as we can project physical development. Skill improvement is a great unknown at this point.
Right– some players just make the leap and others don’t. It’s really hard to project. I have a hypothesis that this is another reason why already skilled players are valuable– they have already shown an ability to develop a high skill level, so they may have upside to improve it even further.
If you truly think that he is comparable to Lebron James, then you are delusional. It can’t even be a discussion. This is crazy I can’t believe I wasted my time reading and writing this. Lebron is one of the best of all time already and he will mj in every stat both regular season and playoffs by the time he is done. This kid you are praising me be good but don’t be foolish enough to compare to Lebron. It shows your lack of basketball knowledge.
LeBron wasn’t one of the best of all time when he was 18
Best prospect ever? Awful take, hes not even going to be the best prospect in the upcoming draft. Michael Porter will be.
I knew who LBJ was when he was a sophomore in high school. He was considered the number 1 pick in the draft as a junior. He won Ohio mr basketball as a Sophomore.
https://www.si.com/vault/2002/02/18/318739/ahead-of-his-class-ohio-high-school-junior-lebron-james-is-so-good-that-hes-already-being-mentioned-as-the-heir-to-air-jordan
Comparing a guy who may not even be the top pick in his class to LBJ coming out is a AWFUL take.
Still think this after game 4?
I agree with you Dean. Don’t worry
This is by far the funniest article I’ve read in a very long time. Clearly you have no idea what are you talking about by asking whether lebron is really that skilled and then spouting two shooting % stats. This is coming from someone who actively roots against lebron since he came into the league. Oh hes not really that skilled? Wait did he lead every single player in every major statistical category in the NBA finals? That’s not evidence of his skill? Do yourself a favor and delete this post so when this kid flames out and turns into rubio 2.0 you won’t have to be so embarrassed.
Nice clickbait/headline grab tho. mad props.
Completely clueless to suggest this little guy is the best NBA prospect ever, when LeBron was in another tratishere compared to this kid.
I think you lost most people when you state that Wiggins is a pre example of an elite athlete that failed in the NBA. Invest in League Pass and watch a few games before you go shooting off your mouth as Wiggins is one of the greatest offensive players to come along ever and only has bad replacement stats and WAR stats because his team is a train-wreck with a horrible new coach each year that cannot coach defense.
I think Luka can become a top 10 shooting guard some day in the NBA, nothing suggests any more than that. A good but not great player.
Wiggins is trash. If you can’t see that you are reading the wrong blog. Luka is literally 100.0000% to be a better pro than him.
Wiggins is trash?? And you call yourself a basketball expert lol. He averaged almost 24 a game at 22 years old on a very average team. By the way, putting those 0’s after the . doesnt make the number any bigger 😉
Wiggins is horribly one dimensional. Advanced stats have him as a below average player because he is very bad at doing everything but score.
Yes, you are correct, but at 22 years old he has a lot of potential to correct the issues he has. i.e. Kyrie Irving- Once he learns how to pass out of double teams and correct most of his bad shots, he will be essentially almost unstoppable. Cant call Wiggins a bust after a couple years in the league.
I stopped reading when you wrote that LeBron doesn’t have special passing touch. Have you ever watched basketball?
I shouldn’t have made that point because it’s misleading. LeBron is an amazing passer because of his physical profile + vision + intelligence.
U r what is wrong with the internet
In my estimation because of the 2018 draft with a player like Doncic that is why Danny Ainge got that pick from Philly.The rich get richer.
I don’t like the LeBron comparision,Obviously one guy was playing against kids in high school who were never even going to play college ball and you have a kid playing against men and excelling.
Well that pick is top 1 protected so it has low odds of getting Doncic. Unless they end up with like #2 and #5 and ship both for #1 and Doncic, which I would do in a heartbeat.
Sir that is completely incorrect. LeBron and SVSM played a National schedule against teams such as Oak Hill, who by the way just happened to have Carmelo on their team. They finished 1st in the NATION LeBron’s senior year. So yes they were not men yet, many of the other teams had very talented players.
I understand the feeling that you need to bring in the questioning of someone like LeBron to drive home your point, but you are dabbling in confirmation bias to merely point out his career 3p% and FT%. LeBron is one of the most efficient scorers in NBA history. Check out that FG%. It’s as if he’s a great scoring center. As for no evidence that he’s a skilled passer? You watch him play before?
I think your arcticle was so well written that you didn’t need to try the LeBron stuff. So other than that, very good stuff
Thanks, but I am just trying to really state how amazing that I think Doncic is. Not trying to bring LeBron down– I think he is the best ever. Just that he has imperfections for a player that seems perfect, and Doncic may give him a run for his money.
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This article is becoming more and more on the money these days…
This article holds up! The fact that some teams might pass on him as the Number 1 is a joke.
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Hey Dean, I haven’t had time to be draft obsessed in the last few years, but I have been watching Doncic and my with the ball he reminds me of Magic, but with great outside shooting. It occurred to me that if he stays healthy he could be in GOAT conversations before he retires. So I started surfing and found your post. I will be back to your site often, Your analysis is exceptional. (It’s a shame that people who love a certain player can’t/won’t see their imperfections.) I remember reading Bill James on projecting baseball prospects a LOONNGG time ago, and he used Roberto Alomar as an example. Someone who was performing very well at a very young age and was already excellent in all 5 areas of the game. When this happens a player has many more possible avenues of improvement towards transcendence. He nailed it with Roberto. You nailed it with Luka.
It turns out that SOMEONE was right!!! Lol.
Someone linked this article on Reddit. I just finished watching Luka score a 40 pt triple double in game 4 of the playoffs against LAC, drain a game winning step back three. Yeah, just had to comment. You nailed this prediction!
Chief called (from the future). He said “this comment section aged like rancid goat milk.”
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Looking back at all of the hate you got for this is hilarious
Part of being a contrarian is that you get hated on for years even when you are right. Whenever Wiggins had a good game for his first 2 years of his career all sorts of people would tweet at me. Same for rookie Cade, which hasn’t been proven right yet per se but it seems like it was right to be skeptical.
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