Category Archives: NCAA

How Good is Ja Morant?

29 Wednesday May 2019

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Ja Morant has already been locked in as the #2 pick in the draft for the Grizzlies, as he was the consensus best prospect after Zion.

Morant emerged from obscurity with a monster sophomore year for Murray State. He showed promise as a hidden gem as a freshman, and elevated his game to a new level with monster scoring and assist numbers, as he is the first NCAA player to ever average 20 points and 10 assists per game. He complemented this with enough SportsCenter top 10 dunks to pass the smell test as an elite prospect.

What Makes Ja Special?

Morant has an intersection of athleticism and passing vision that is rarely seen. And most of the examples in his tier of elite at both did very well in the NBA: LeBron James, Chris Paul, John Wall, and Ben Simmons stand out as the only examples in recent memory.  Russell Westbrook is more athletic and eventually proved that he sees the floor, but his vision was a question mark coming out of UCLA. De’Aaron Fox is slightly behind in both.

Vision and athleticism are two high leverage qualities. The prospects who have both are extremely rare, and they tend to become great pros.

This is not to say that Ja will necessarily be as good as the aforementioned players. He has a slight frame at 6’3″ and his defense has plenty of room for improvement.  And while he is a solid shooter making 36% 3P and 81% FT as a 19 year old sophomore, there is some risk that he does not shoot well enough to excel as a little guy.

But given his monster strengths and no glaring weaknesses, he likely will be good and has upside to be a star.

Where Would He Go Last Year?

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This is a more interesting discussion than this season, as below Zion and above everybody else is too wide of a range to say much about his value.

Last season there was a clear top 3 of Luka, JJJ, and Ayton who were all superior prospects. Ja would fit into the next tier of #4-10 with a big cluster of very good prospects. The most similar player to him in that cluster is Trae Young.

I ranked Trae #15 last year which was too over the top contrarian given his outlier strengths. In retrospect, #5-10 range was where he should have rightfully gone. Incidentally freshman Trae is a good comp for sophomore Ja, as they have similarly slight frames, monster offensive roles, and age (sophomore Ja is just 1 month older than freshman Trae):

USG ORtg AST% TRB% BLK%
Ja 36.2 115.8 51.9 8.6 2.2
Trae 38.5 112.1 48.5 5.8 0.7

They had near identical output offensively. Trae was a much better shooter, making more FT’s at 86% vs 81% and with over twice the 3PA rate. And he had the tougher schedule as the average defense he faced was 6.8 pts per 100 better than Ja’s opposition– not trivial, but not enough to put Ja’s #’s in the dumpster.

Ja’s overall offensive output was slightly better, so even once strength of schedule is factored in Trae’s offensive advantage isn’t better by a major margin. Morant in part compensates for his lesser shot by superior ability to get to the rim and finish.

Now let’s talk about the other areas where Ja is superior

  1. Physical profile. He is 1″ taller, 3″ longer, and much more athletic. This immediately shows in his superior rebounds and blocks
  2. Defense. Ja has a reputation for being a lackadaisical defensive player, but Trae’s freshman year defense was all time bad
  3. Translation to better competition. Trae slipped to 102.8 ORTG in 15 games top 50 kenpom competition, Ja hardly missed a beat with 113.8 ORTG in his 5 games against the top 50. Better athletes are safer to translate up.
  4. Team impact– even though Morant’s Murray State had a much weaker cast + preseason expectation, they finished with nearly identical kenpom rankings.
  5. As a freshman, Morant played efficiently next to a ball dominant fringe prospect in Jonathan Stark. This means he can likely pair well with ball dominant NBA stars, which is still a question mark for Trae.

Collectively, these advantages are very significant. As exciting as Trae’s shooting was, Morant is a decent shooter himself and his superior physical tools, team success, translatability, and defense clearly weigh heavier.

Given all of this, I found this poll surprising:

Draft twitter hasn’t truly embraced Morant the way they embraced Trae, even though it’s difficult to come up with any objective analysis where Trae rates better strictly based on pre-draft info. You would have to place an irrational premium on shooting to rate Trae higher.

Some people believe strength of schedule also boosts Trae’s profile, but this is incorrect. Ja performed better against top defenses, and elite athletes tend to have less risk of translating to better competition. Morant would have obviously been great for any major conference team.

Trae has improved his value with a good rookie year such that he now may be worth more than Morant. But based on pre-draft, Morant is clearly the better prospect.

I would have ranked Ja top 5 in last year’s loaded draft for sure, and probably #4 as his big upside is too tantalizing to pass.

Bottom Line

From every angle of analysis, there are loads of things to like about Morant and not much to dislike.

He is so young and unheralded prior to college, that it feels excessive to call him a guaranteed star. But it’s hard to imagine what his fail case would look like. Jeff Teague is a reasonable floor comp, and that is fairly pessimistic as Morant is a clearly better passer than Teague and there isn’t any area where Teague stands out as superior.

Morant will likely peak as an above average starter, and has clear star upside. There is nobody quite like him in the NBA. He doesn’t quite have Russell Westbrook’s athleticism, or Steve Nash’s craft + IQ, but he has a nice blend of both and it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s the mean average of both players.

Ultimately Morant has more downside than a typical #1 pick, but he is a solid #2 overall in most drafts. As much as it hurts to miss out on Zion, the Grizzlies are nevertheless walking away with a great consolation prize.

2019 Mid-Season Big Board

23 Wednesday Jan 2019

Posted by in Big Boards, NCAA

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This draft is really terrible but nevertheless here are rankings. I’m excluding internationals, the only one who is likely worth a first rounder is Goga Bitadze. Sekou Doumbaya has hype but there is no reason to believe he is worth more than a round 2 flier.

Tier 1: Stud

1. Zion Williamson

Zion is a generational talent. It’s too bad he was not in the 2018 draft, because it would be fun to compare him to Luka, Jaren, and Ayton.

My low confidence take is I would put him just behind Luka and Jaren, but ahead of any other prospect since Anthony Davis. His weirdness makes him difficult to project, as he is like a wing version of Shaq, and may create NBA fit concerns that other generational prospects lack.

But those concerns are mild compared to his overwhelming talent, and he will still be 18 on draft night. There is a real chance that Zion is the future GOAT if his jump shot comes around and his bulky frame doesn’t cause issues playing on the perimeter.

Tier 2: Really Good Prospects

N/A

Tier 3: Pretty Good Prospects

2. Ja Morant

Morant is establishing himself as the clear #2 prospect in the draft playing like the Russell Westbrook of the OVC for Murray State. He has good PG size at 6’3″, excellent athleticism for highlight reel dunks, is a decent shooter, and is still freshman aged.

He also proved that he can play efficiently in a smaller role as a freshman, which is something that disappointing PG’s such as Cam Payne and Kris Dunn never showed.

3. RJ Barrett

RJ reminds me of DeMar DeRozan, which is really painfully unexciting player to target at #3. But there aren’t any glaringly better choices in this draft.

4. PJ Washington

This may seem like a hot take, but there is no such thing as a hot take in this draft. Everybody is so bad teams can reach for whoever they want and not worry about missing out on a stud.

PJ is fascinating because he had excellent AAU stats for a recruiting class where most 5* prospects were very good. He is in an interesting mold, where he has potential to thrive as either a big wing convert or an undersized big. And he plays for a coach who notoriously makes elite talent look ordinary.

Based just on his Kentucky production he is a fringe lottery pick, but everything else makes him one of the more attractive gambles in the draft.

5. Jontay Porter

Jontay is missing the year with a torn ACL and MCL but there is still a genuine case for him as the 2nd best prospect in the draft.

6. Bol Bol

I have no idea how to value Bol. He is one of the true weirdos, with major flaws and a foot injury to boot. But when everybody else is so bad, how low can you get on his rare combination of height and shooting?

7. Grant Williams
8. Jarrett Culver

This is an interesting comparison, as these prospects have similar dimensions and both of their offenses run through them. But Williams is anchoring Rick Barnes’ best offense ever, which includes many seasons where he had access to superior talent at Texas. And Culver is the leader of Chris Beard’s worst offense ever, including his season at Little Rock.

Granted Culver is 9 months younger and is more of a traditional wing, while Williams is an undersized big. But there is a real chance that Williams can convert to NBA wing, and it makes him one of more interesting gambles in the draft.

9. Romeo Langford

Romeo isn’t too exciting, but he has good tools and enough production to have a sliver of star potential if his shot comes around.

10. Dan Gafford

Gafford isn’t sexy in any one regard, but he has good tools, good stats, excellent on/off splits, and if his skill develops better than expected he has sneaky upside.

11. Keldon Johnson

For a 6’6″ athlete, Keldon has been curiously allergic to blocks with just 2 on the season. And nothing about his profile is particularly exciting, but nothing is that bad either outside of his lack of blocks.

It tends to be a good strategy to draft Calipari players who aren’t transparently broken, so Keldon is a fine lottery pick.

12. Shamorie Ponds

On average, it’s bad practice to draft 6’1 PG’s who are more shifty than explosive in the lottery. But this draft is so thin it’s acceptable to gamble.

He is a very good shooter, has an excellent assist:TOV, has more assists than steals, and sometimes small PG’s become surprisingly good. Shamorie has a sneaky good upside tail

13. Nickeil Alexander-Walker

NAW is only 6’5″ but has done everything well this year, which is good enough to place him lotto.

14. Kevin Porter Jr.

Porter has missed most of the season with injury first and suspension later, but he showed a bit of promise in the time he played. He had solid games vs Texas Tech and Vanderbilt, and as an athletic 6’6″ player his upside cannot be ruled out.

In all likelihood he is just as bad as all of the other freshmen, but having the glimmer of upside hope is enough to argue his place in the lottery.

15. Tre Jones

Tre will often end up like his brother Tyus– a quality backup PG who is undervalued and underappreciated by the rest of the league. And he may not even be that good, as he isn’t nearly as good of a shooter as Tyus. But he also has a bit more size and defensive upside, so he has his own form of sneaky upside.

16. Killian Tillie

Tillie missed Gonzaga’s tourney loss last year with a hip injury, and the first 2 months this year with an ankle injury. Durability is a concern, but in his first 5 games back he picked up where he left off as an excellent basketball player. He is a versatile 6’10” with enough switchability hope to have a case to be in the lottery.

17. Cam Reddish

Reddish has been BY FAR the most disappointing prospect in this draft.

He is 6’8″, racks up steals, and shoots a high volume of 3’s, so in theory he should be at worst a very good 3 + D prospect. But that’s what everybody said about Andrew Wiggins, and it’s hard to be a useful player if you insist on making frequent negative plays.

Cam’s offense has been flabbergastingly bad for a guy who is mostly asked to stand on the perimeter and launch 3’s while Zion and RJ run the show. He doesn’t get to the free throw line, he can’t make a shot inside the arc, and he has an insane turnover rate for a player who rarely attempts 2’s or FT’s.

For perspective, let’s compare his per 100 stats to a couple of past top 5 recruits who underwhelmed as freshmen: Jaylen Brown and Harrison Barnes

2PA 2P% FTA AST TOV
Cam 9.4 39.5% 6.3 3.7 6.4
Barnes 15.3 47.0% 6.3 2.7 3.7
Jaylen 17.2 48.2% 13.5 4.2 6.6

He shares Barnes avoidance of FT’s, but at the cost of much less scoring inside the arc and many more turnovers. He shares Jaylen’s turnover woes at the expense of much worse inside scoring and fewer FTA.

Like Cam, both had high recruiting pedigree which helped them perform better in the NBA than their NCAA stats suggested. Yet neither has been above average offensively in the NBA, and Cam is light years behind them at the same stage. It’s difficult to imagine him being anything other than a trainwreck offensively in the NBA.

Who really knows what is going on. Maybe this is a fluke of some sort and Cam figures it out with NBA coaching. But he was flagged for a lackadaisical personality entering the season, and it’s hard to have confidence that a prospect with shaky intangibles who fell THIS flat will do great things in the future.

And this doesn’t even touch on the fact that he rebounds like a point guard in spite of being 6’8″.

He reminisces of a worse Andrew Wiggins without elite athleticism. He partially compensates with a higher IQ, but he is clearly a weaker prospect overall.

It’s hard to give up entirely on height + IQ + shooting + steals + pedigree. Maybe there’s some scenario where he can turn into a Khris Middleton. But it’s hard to envision with such grotesque warts. It would be a major error for him to be taken top 5. At this stage, he looks like an overwhelmingly likely bust.

18. Tyler Herro

He plays for Calipari and he hasn’t been terrible. That makes him a serious prospect.

19. Ignas Brazdeikis

Iggy is a sophomore aged freshman who isn’t too athletic, but he has good wing height at 6’7″, and is a versatile scorer and defender. He fits a strong prototype for NBA wing, and could have a Michael Redd type career.

20. Jalen Smith
21. Bruno Fernando

Mark Turgeon is essentially John Calipari Jr, as he has a knack for recruiting very good talent and making it look ordinary. But Smith and Fernando have both been highly productive this year, leading what may be Turgeon’s best team ever. This is good reason to take them both seriously as sleeper big men.

22. Coby White

White is 6’5″ and has just enough intersection of passing and PG skill to be interesting.

23. Brandon Clarke

Clarke’s shot may be too broken to thrive as a pro, but he has intrigue as a 6’8″ versatile defensive stopper

24. Talen Horton-Tucker

THT is in an unfortunate mold of limited height for a wing without great shooting or primary creation, but he is one of the youngest prospects in the draft and is so well rounded that he could amount to something useful.

25. Jaxson Hayes

Hayes is an exceptional lob finisher, with a unique combination of explosiveness and fluidity and that’s about the only dimension he brings to the table.

He doesn’t rebound, he doesn’t pass, he isn’t good on defense, and it’s hard to see him being better than Javale McGee. He would need to develop his skill level quite a bit, which his 70% small sample FT% offers hope for, but in all likelihood he’s just a dime a dozen big.

26. Nassir Little

It’s not clear what Little’s role in the NBA would be. He seems intelligent in some ways, maybe he can develop into a Gerald Wallace type. But most of his hype has come from the McDonald’s All-American game, and he has been underwhelming for UNC.

He has been playing better recently, which offers a ray of hope. Let’s see if he can build on it.

27. Simi Shittu

Shittu has been disappointing, but he is 6’10”, athletic, had good AAU priors, and is coming off an ACL tear. It’s plausible that he is much better than he has shown thus far for Vanderbilt, and has sleeper potential because of it.

28. Ty Jerome

Jerome is sorely lacking in explosiveness, but he has exceptional IQ and awareness and moves well laterally to atone. His lack of athleticism hurts, but he is so otherwise good he has potential to be a very unique and good role player.

29. Cassius Winston
30. Darius Garland

Garland appears to be a SG in a PG body, which makes it difficult to justify the lottery hype. But he is athletic and can shoot and has just enough PG skill to not be written off entirely.

For perspective– Cassius Winston is similarly a knockdown shooter. He is less athletic and 1″ shorter, but is a wizard level passer.

Winston has much less hype, but there is an argument that his passing advantage is more significant than Garland’s physical advantages.

31. Ayo Dosunmu

Ayo is young and not transparently awful at basketball. Has some shades of Caris LeVert.

32. Charles Bassey

If Bassey’s exceptionally young age is taken at face value, he may belong in the top 5. But he moved from Nigeria to America at age 14, as a 6’10” and chiseled 14 year old, which makes his age difficult to buy. He is still a semi-interesting prospect regardless because he does a number of things well, but it’s hard to get too excited about him if he’s actually in the 20 to 22 age range.

33. Ethan Happ

Happ’s shot is almost certainly broken and he may not be quick enough to be a defensive stopper in the NBA. But he has a fascinating skill set for 6’10”, and at a certain point it’s worth gambling to see what happens.

34. Ashton Hagans

Hagans doesn’t bring much to the table other than a monster steal rate, but Calipari guards rarely have big steals and that alone is enough to make him a serious prospect and even merit round 1 consideration.

35. Charles Matthews

He is athletic enough to play for Calipari, smart enough to play for Beilein, and if he can just learn to shoot he should have an NBA career.

36. Chuma Okeke
37. Dedric Lawson
38. Naz Reid

These guys are all fine but nothing special

39. DeAndre Hunter

Hunter is one of the more puzzling hype trains of the year, as there is absolutely nothing sexy about him. He isn’t explosive, he isn’t a dynamic shot creator, he isn’t a knockdown shooter. He’s just a guy who has been effective role player for an elite team as a 21 year old sophomore.

The best case for him is that Tony Bennett prospects tend to overperform their pre-draft profile. Klay Thompson, Joe Harris, and Malcolm Brogdon are examples of good outcomes with Justin Anderson being the sole disappointment.

This may be because Bennett values lateral quickness, height, shooting, and IQ, which is a good formula for NBA role players even without much athleticism which is true for Klay, Harris, Brogdon, and Hunter.

But based on NCAA production, Hunter is way behind Klay + Justin Anderson, solidly behind Brogdon, and in the same tier as Joe Harris.

Harris is a decent role player, but he was a complete zero until he turned 26. That is not the type of upside to target in round 1, and there is no strong reason to believe Hunter follows a similar developmental arc.

My favorite upside comp for Hunter is Ryan Gomes. Gomes was barely good enough at everything to be an NBA rotation player, but epitomized mediocre filler because he lacked any notable strengths.

This is Hunter’s issue– he isn’t good at anything, and for a 21 year old non-athlete his upside is painfully capped. Sure he is fine flier in round 2 in case he becomes a Gomes type, but it would be a major error to target such a weak upside in the lottery.

40. John Konchar
41. Ky Bowman
42. Devon Dotson
43. Trent Forrest
44. Jordan Murphy
45. KZ Okpala
46. Kerwin Roach Jr.
47. Aric Holman
48. Jordan Poole
49. Kris Wilkes
50. Isaiah Roby

Trash Can

Rui Hachimura

Rui turns 21 in a few weeks, and he isn’t even a top 5 player on his own team. He has good tools and can score, but looks lost on the court fairly often and it’s hard to see him having any worthwhile impact as a pro. His upside is approximately Derrick Williams.

Best underclassmen unlikely to declare:

1. Tyrese Halibuton
2. AJ Lawson
3. Jalen Pickett
4. Tyler Bey
5. Jalen Crutcher
6. Andrew Newmbhard
7. Savion Flagg
8. Jahlil Tripp
9. Sincere Carry
10. Steffon Mitchell
11. DeJon Jarreau

2019 Draft Preview

14 Sunday Oct 2018

Posted by in Big Boards, NCAA

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This preview excludes internationals, although I will note that I do not understand why Sekou Doumbaya has top 5 hype. At a glance he does not appear to deserve a first round selection.

Race for #1

If you want to scout the top of the draft, get used to watching Duke basketball as they have the 3 best tanking prizes in this year’s class. Along with Bol, it’s a close four way race for #1 with nobody clearly standing out above the rest at this moment.

1. Cameron Reddish
2. Zion Williamson
3. RJ Barrett
4. Bol Bol

Reddish is a 6’9″ point forward who is more cerebral than explosive and has Grant Hill upside.

Zion is a smooth, strong, and explosive slasher and is highly unique with a center frame and wing dimensions.

RJ Barrett has some winning gravity on his side with monster performances in wins vs team USA in both FIBA and the Hoop Summit. But with limited dimensions and shot making, he is in the DeMar DeRozan mold which makes him slightly less exciting than Reddish and Zion.

Bol Bol is the Deandre Ayton of the draft– uniquely talented with elite shooting and rim protection, but enigmatic with a lackadaisical attitude.

Regular Lottery Prospects
5. Jontay Porter

The top returning prospect, Jontay has an elite combination of size, passing, and shooting and is younger than most true freshmen. He has Draymond/Jokic potential and will inevitably get underrated for his doughy physique.

6. Simi Shittu

The most interesting freshman who isn’t getting lotto hype, Shittu has point forward potential

7. Keldon Johnson

Slightly undersized for a SF at 6’6″ with a 6’9″ wingspan, Johnson atones with good frame and athleticism and solid two way potential.

8. Ja Morant

Morant came out of nowhere to post a monster 18 year old freshman season for Murray State. He is an explosive 6’3″ PG who posted impressive rebound and assist:TOV rates in spite of his thin frame. Now he can leap into the lottery if he continues to improve and fill out physically as a sophomore.

9. Nassir Little

Currently ranked #2 at ESPN, Little is the freshman who is most clearly overrated. He has a great combination of length (7’1″ wingspan), explosiveness, and intellectual curiosity, but he simply has not performed well enough to justify top 5 hype at this stage as an inefficient 6’6″ wing.

He could develop into a Jaylen Brown type, but seems closer to Kelly Oubre at this stage.

10. Daniel Gafford
11. PJ Washington

A couple of obviously good returners. Gafford is an athletic big who offers defense, rebounding, and finishing.

PJ is an undersized PF who is athletic and well rounded enough to possibly be converted to wing. His talent was likely not maximized as a freshman but John Calipari’s poor coaching.

12. Tre Jones
13. Romeo Langford
14. Charles Bassey
15. Coby White
16. Quentin Grimes

The next tier of freshmen. Tre Jones is Tyus brother and similar in a number of ways as a  high IQ point guard. Tyus was massively underdrafted sliding to the late 1st, and Tre may share a similar fate.

Romeo Langford has excellent tools for a SG, but still needs to prove he can play.

Bassey is an athletic big who does athletic big man things

Coby is a shifty 6’5″ combo guard who figures to play point guard for UNC. Has sleeper potential if he runs the offense well, and it would be unsurprising if he turns out better than his much more hyped classmate Nassir Little.

Grimes figures to be a good college player with no clear NBA role, as he is an undersized 6’4″ SG with non-elite athleticism and shooting.

Ordinary Returners
17. Jarrett Culver
18. Killian Tillie
19. Isaiah Roby
20. Dedric Lawson
21. Ethan Happ
22. Aric Holman

Some of the strongest returners. I am higher than most on Happ who is a PF who has a broken shot but has sneaky upside as an incredibly cerebral passer and defensive player. And Holman is interesting as an athletic 3 + D big man who can finish lobs.

A few more freshmen
23. EJ Montgomery
24. Devon Dotson
25. Darius Bazley

Freshmen who could land on either side of upsidey prospect vs. pile of meh.

Fliers
26. Ky Bowman

Ky is 6’1″ and still learning to play PG, but he is explosive, can shoot, and is cerebral enough to have a chance of figuring it out.

27. Ty Jerome

Jerome sorely lacks explosion but makes up for it with elite IQ, lateral movement, shooting, and passing to make for an intriguing 3 + D PG with good 6’5″ height.

28. Eric Williams Jr.

Williams is a shifty 6’6″ wing who does a bit of everything and rebounds exceptionally well for his size. He was a young freshman and has monster breakout upside as a sophomore.

29. Trent Forrest

At a glance Forrest appears to be a 6’5″ defensive specialist. But he showed sneaky point guard potential as a sophomore and has similarities to DeAnthony Melton. If he shows more offensive polish as a junior, his value will be pumped up quite a bit.

30. Charles Matthews

Athletic enough to play for John Calipari and smart enough to play for John Beilein, Matthews is an ideal role playing wing if he learns to shoot.

31. Saben Lee
32. Darius Garland

Vanderbilt’s pair of athletic PG’s. Garland has all of the hype (projected #9 ESPN), but Saben may be the better prospect. He a fairly young freshman and has big breakout potential as a sophomore. Garland is the better shooter but Lee is likely better at everything else.

33. Anfernee McLemore
34. Kris Wilkes
35. Oshae Brissett
36. Steffon Mitchell
37. DeAndre Hunter
38. Justice Sueing
39. Jalen McDaniels

Well rounded combo forwards abound here– all have first round potential with breakout seasons, but none of them assuredly deserve to be drafted.

McLemore is a monster shot blocker at 6’7″ who can shoot and had offers from Ivy League schools. His ball skills have a long way to go to fit in as an NBA wing, but if they come along he can be an excellent role player.

Hunter has the most hype but is the oldest of the bunch and does not have any special qualities to deserve lottery value.

Steffon Mitchell is the hidden gem of the group who can pump up his value with improved shooting and creation.

40. Jack Nunge
41. Dean Wade

Nunge and Wade are a pair of stretch 4’s who may move well enough to fit in NBA defenses. Nunge is particularly interesting as he has added bulk this offseason and at 6’11” has all sorts of unique upside.

42. D’Marcus Simonds
43. Shamorie Ponds
44. Xavier Sneed
45. Jahlil Tripp
46. Markis McDuffie
47. Jarrey Foster
48. Amir Coffey
49. Chris Clemons
50. Donta Hall
51. Keith Braxton
52. Cassius Winston
53. Tremont Waters
54. Tyler Cook
55. Andrew Jones
56. Bruno Fernando
57. Grant Williams
58. Quinton Rose
59. John Petty
60. Daejon Davis

This is the point of the board where there are about 100 names in a similar tier to choose from.

At 5’9″, Chris Clemons is in a tier of height where few have had successful NBA careers. Calvin Murphy, Isaiah Thomas, Muggsy Bogues, Spud Webb, Nate Robinson, and Earl Boykins make up the list of success stories, which is why Clemons cannot be taken in round 1. But he is an exceptional athlete and shooter, and appears to be a better version of Nate Robinson. Isaiah Thomas provided an excellent return after sliding to the last pick in the draft because of his height, and Clemons has clear potential to be similar or better.

Keith Braxton is a 6’4″ combo guard who has crazy rebound rates, can shoot, and is slippery at finding his way to the hoop. He will likely be overlooked playing for low major St. Francis and has his own brand of sneaky potential.

Just missed the cut: DeJon Jarreau, Sagaba Konate, Devon Daniels, Carsen Edwards, Zach Norvell Jr, Kenny Wooten, Terence Davis, Taveion Hollingsworth, Shakur Juiston, Vic Law

Others

Rui Hachimura

Hachimura has great physical tools, but will turn 21 this season and be the 5th best player on Gonzaga at best. For some reason scouts want to compare him to Giannis even though he is a complete non-passer and 3″ shorter. He is worth a 2nd round pick with a big junior leap, but this hype train needs to cool down.

Herb Jones

Jones was an unmitigated disaster offensively as a freshman. There is no way that a wing who is that poor offensively should ever be drafted. There are at least 300 prospects better than him in this draft.

Jaylen Hoard

Hoard has first round hype as a big wing, but he is very old for the class and unlikely to deserve to be drafted.

Eric Paschall

People need to stop overhyping Villanova upperclassmen. Paschall is a great NCAA player but not a draftable prospect.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

If you are wondering if he belongs in round 1, the answer lies in his initials: NAW. Although he has a fair case as a second rounder.

Under The Radar Freshmen to Watch

Andrew Nembhard

Nembhard isn’t that explosive or skilled at scoring, but he is a 6’5″ PG with elite vision and passing. The intersection of size and passing is a great place to seek upside

Daniel Oturu

Oturu is a 6’10” defensive oriented big man whose favorite player is Nikola Jokic.  His combination of size, defense, and passing can sum to a strong upside tail.

Pete Nance

Overachieving runs in the family, as his dad Larry and brother Larry Jr. both massively over performed their draft slot. Nance is 6’10” with an interesting base of skill and IQ. He’s a bit of a mystery box as he did not play for AAU, but his upside is monstrous.

Leaky Black

Black is similar to Theo Pinson, who could have become a good prospect if he developed better over his NCAA career. Even with no discernible improvement over four years he was still good enough to get a two way contract from Brooklyn.

Filip Petrusev

Gonzaga has done a terrific job of international scouting, and Petrusev may be another gem as he had an excellent summer playing FIBA u18 for Serbia’s gold medal team. He stuffed the stat sheet and made 80% of his FT’s as a 6’11” big.

Reggie Perry

Perry is a 6’8″ PF who offers a bit of everything, and if his skill level if more polished than expected could make for an ideal big wing.

Others: Darius Days, Talen Horton-Tucker, Khavon Moore, Mike DeVoe

Draft Takeaways

22 Friday Jun 2018

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1) Dallas Steals Luka from Atlanta in the most lopsided trade in NBA Draft History

Doncic is the best prospect since Anthony Davis and Trae Young has no business going in the top 5. This will be known as an infamous robbery before long.

Not only did Dallas steal a rare prospect from the #5 overall slot, but they did so at a reasonable cost of a top 5 protected pick. It’s less valuable than the pick that Boston received to swap Fultz for Tatum, and even less valuable than the pick that Philly received to move down from just #10 to #16 in this draft.

With a fairly pedestrian price to move up, this is BY FAR worst draft day trade in NBA history for Atlanta. It crushes Ty Thomas for LaMarcus Aldridge, as Thomas was the better talent who developed much worse. Trae is worse than Luka in every regard.

2) Travis Schlenk is a Terrible GM

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It’s obvious Schlenk’s strategy is to copy the Warriors in Atlanta, and it shows with his draft night strategy taking Trae Young (Steph), Kevin Huerter (Klay), and Omari Spellman (Draymond).

The Spellman and Huerter picks were fine, but that’s sheer luck that the players who vaguely reminded him of Warrior starters happened to be decent.

The more important decision was at #3 when there were two possible franchise changing stars in Luka and Jaren, and instead he traded down for a fairly low price to reach for a guy who had no business being in the top 5. This is the type of stuff that makes or breaks franchise, and Schlenk destroyed the Hawks’ future upside with this decision.

There will never be another Steph or another Draymond, and it’s senseless to try to build a team around finding one. Travis Schlenk is going to learn this the hard way, as this trade horribly sets the franchise back.

3) Philly Gets More In Return For Mikal Bridges Than Atlanta For Luka Doncic

Zhaire Smith is a better prospect than Trae Young, and the 2021 unprotected Miami pick is MUCH better than the top 5 protected Dallas pick.

The one and done rule is going to be eliminated in 2021, which means there will be twice as many lotto prizes as normal. Picking #19 in that draft will be like picking #10 in a normal draft, picking #13 will be like a normal #7, and so on.

Not to mention that Miami does not have the best longterm current roster, and has sneaky downside to be a lotto team.

That pick is worth more than Mikal Bridges, and so is Zhaire Smith. Not to mention that Zhaire is an excellent fit in Philadelphia, this trade was an incredible coup for the 76ers.

4) What is Phoenix Even Doing?

I have no idea. I like Ayton, but it is definitely a mistake to take him over Luka and Jaren who every smart person agrees are the top 2 in this draft. And other than that, they seem to be willing to mortgage the farm on Mikal Bridges who they see as the final role player piece to their core of Booker, Jackson, and Ayton.

As it is they have 3 talented but badly flawed “stars” and invested some serious assets in a pure role playing wing. If Ayton pans out this could be a perennial 45-50 win roster, but there isn’t really championship upside here and there is downside for things to go quite a bit worse.

And not that it really matters at #59 overall, but George King is a hilarious waste of a draft pick.

5) Denver Gambles On Injured Players

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If Michael Porter Jr. and Jarred Vanderbilt never got hurt this year, they could have been the #1 and #10 picks in the draft. Getting talents like that at #14 and #40 can only be a good thing.

I am unsure what to expect of Porter, and gun to my head I would have rather taken Zhaire Smith with the pick. But it’s hard to knock the gamble– players with Porter’s talent are never available at #14.

But the pick I absolutely LOVE Is getting that sweet, sweet Vandy Candy in round 2. Vanderbilt is an absolute steal, as he is a 5* recruit who was star of the Hoop Summit, is a monster rebounder who can pass off the dribble, and if he stays healthy is the favorite to be the best player who wasn’t drafted in the top 20.

6) Pop Has Lost His Edge

It’s been a rough year for Gregg Popovich, as he lost his wife and he will likely lose his star player in Kawhi as well. He is getting old at age 69, and is near retirement, and he just doesn’t have the edge he used to.

Lonnie Walker was a fine pick at #18, but Kevin Huerter or Josh Okogie who went at 19 and 20 would have been more exciting + traditional Spurs-y type picks. Chimezie Metu at 49 overall is a waste of a draft slot.

It’s sad to see such a prolonged era of excellence come to an end, but nothing lasts forever. Pop will retire soon, and the Spurs will have a long climb back to relevance. He was the best coach in the NBA for almost 20 years, but now his time is coming to an end and the Spurs are just another mediocre team.

7) Minnesota with a pair of value picks

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Josh Okogie and Keita Bates-Diop were two of the better value picks in the draft. They both have solid role player potential that can solidly upgrade Andrew Wiggins and Jamal Crawford longterm.

I’m also a buyer of Tyus Jones, and if Thibs can refrain from investing in too many flawed talents and gets rid of Wiggins, the Wolves could end up with a solid cast around Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler.

8) Cleveland is awful

LeBron is going to leave, Collin Sexton is going to be awful as a rookie, and the Cavs are going to be mind numbingly bad once again. They will contend for #1 overall pick in 2019.

9) Daryl Morey Stays Amazing

The Rockets entered the draft with one pick at #46 overall, and they came away with a top 20 prospect in Melton, one of best under the radar sleepers in Vince Edwards, and everybody’s favorite sleeper in Gary Clark.

It’s possible that these prospects all amount to nothing. I similarly lauded Morey in 2016 when he nabbed Chinanu Onuaku and Zhou Qi. But these are such low cost acquisitions it hardly matters. When they work they will work better than most other 2nd rounders or late 1sts.

10) Jaren Jackson Jr. will forever be underappreciated

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Jaren is a really amazing prospect who deserves a good team, and he ended up in a terrible situation.

Most distressing is he will play for a terrible coach in JB Bickerstaff who likely fails to maximize his elite defensive prowess. And to make it worse, the Grizzlies have zero young talent, owe a future 1st to Boston, and Conley and Gasol will both be well past their primes by the time Jaren can legally buy alcohol.

This badly reminisces of KG’s team situation in Minnesota, where he had an MVP level season in 04-05 and only finished 11th in MVP voting because his team was so bad they missed the playoffs.

Jaren is an elite prospect but his goodness will likely never be fully appreciated in Memphis.

Digging for Deep Sleepers– Best Players Not Invited to Combine

07 Thursday Jun 2018

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Most of these guys are going to amount for nothing, but just for fun I am going to take a stab at some deep sleepers who were not invited to the combine that nobody is talking about. I excluded Gary Clark who is widely considered a snub, and am focusing on players who are actively underrated in my estimation.

1) Xavier Cooks 6’8″ SF/PF Winthrop

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Cooks is the ultimate unicorn of under the radar players. I doubt there was ever an undrafted player who can handle, pass, rebound, and protect the rim like he can. He is not super athletic, but he has a nice first step and is highly cerebral, which enables him to stuff the stat sheet at his height.

In the past 8 NCAA seasons, here are the players who had 15%+ TRB, 16%+ AST, 3%+ BLK, were 6’6″+ and had at least 10 possessions as a PnR Handler (per synergy):

Player Class TRB% AST% BLK% PnR poss
Xavier Cooks SR 16.6 25.4 7.7 79
Xavier Cooks JR 17.4 21.2 6.1 58
Frank Kaminsky SR 16.1 18.4 4.5 23
Draymond Green SR 19.8 24.2 3.3 20
Royce White SO 17.7 34.5 3 11
Draymond Green JR 16.6 30.6 4 10

This includes two first round picks, an all-time round 2 steal, and Cooks. And he runs the pick and roll far more often than any of them with quite a few more blocks. This is arguably a product of playing against low major competition, but there are no other low or mid major players in his stratosphere. He is an incredibly rare prospect.

Cooks’ biggest flaw is efficiency. He posted a weak 103 ORtg as a senior against low major competition, which is a major flag. But his passing was good enough to help balance the scales. Here are his senior synergy efficiency percentiles as a scorer vs. scoring + passes:

%ile %ile including passes
PnR 77% 91%
Iso 41% 70%
Post-up 88% 90%

His splits plus passes are likely bolstered by luck to some extent, but it is easy to see how he may offer enough value to overcome his efficiency woes. Also worth noting that Winthrop had a monstrous split with him on the court vs. off.

His other issue is that he may not be able to shoot. His career 68% FT 35% 3P inspires hope, but he has an ugly tornado form that reminisces of Joakim Noah.

Cooks has incredibly outlier strengths for a player that will likely go undrafted. His shooting and efficiency woes will be his undoing as a pro fairly often, but he is absolutely worth a summer league flier and 2 way contract. I would even take him in the 2nd round.

2) DJ Hogg 6’9″ SF/PF Texas A&M (ESPN: #66)

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Hogg is a not great athlete with relatively short arms (6’10.5″ wingspan) who averaged a modest 11 points and 5 rebounds per game as a junior, so it is easy to write him off at a glance. But there are reasons for optimism:

At 6’9″ he is a big wing, which is quickly becoming the prototypical PF mold. He has good vision and is a good shooter, and enough athleticism to average nearly a block per game. This is an excellent baseline for a 3 + D prospect.

The problem is that his overall scoring and rebounding leaves much to be desired, but there are a number of factors stifling his production:

  1. He was forced to play the 3 with Texas A&M rotating three bigs– he would have been a 4 on almost any other team
  2. He had the worst coach of any major conference player
  3. He had the worst PG of any major conference player

His creation is nevertheless a flag for even a 3 + D role player, as he rarely even attacked closeouts. But for a player with such a good baseline of role player abilities, there could be a nice payoff if he translates well to a more favorable environment.

3) Vince Edwards 6’8″ SF/PF Purdue (ESPN: #72)

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All Edwards did in 4 years at Purdue was win win win no matter what. He was an instant contributor from his freshman year, and the Boilermakers were a mainstay at the top of the Big Ten standings during his tenure.

He is 6’8″ and can rebound, pass, and is a great shooter with 39% 3P and 82% FT over his career. He also can handle a bit, which puts him in a mold that has an incredibly easy path to success as a pro.

His main question is whether he has the quickness and athleticism to defend at the NBA level. Given his size, IQ, and skill level it is worth gambling that he can in the 2nd round.

4) Desi Rodriguez 6’5″ SG/SF Seton Hall

Rodriguez had an interesting career arc at Seton Hall. As a freshman he was a pest on defense and a beast on the glass, but too raw to contribute much offensively. Over time he added polish to his skill level, and his steals and rebounds declined as his offensive role grew.

His shot is a bit of a question mark, but at 37% 3P and 74% FT as a senior he has improved enough to have potential. And his 6’10” wingspan and strong frame gives him potential to switch onto bigger players.

Desi’s ability to provide secondary creation ties everything together. It is a common misperception that 3 + D players only need to make 3’s and play defense. Low usage NCAA players have a terrible NBA track record for a reason. Competent shot creation is a necessity for even low usage NBA role players, as players who cannot punish the defense on easy scoring opportunities are major offensive liabilities.

In the NBA he will likely mirror his freshman role where he can focus on defense and rebounding, while his performance as a junior and senior proves that he has the offensive competence to succeed in a low usage NBA role. If he can combine the best of both worlds and develop into a reliable shooter, he should be a useful NBA role player.

5) Zach Thomas 6’7″ SF/PF Bucknell

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Thomas offers passing, rebounding, and shooting with ideal wing size and good feel for the game. He has a shot distribution that would make James Harden blush, as he attempts an inordinate amount of threes and free throws. And he has a solid frame and athleticism to give him a chance of translating to higher levels.

An encouraging point is that he scored an efficient 27 points in 29 minutes against Michigan State in the tournament before fouling out.

6) Desonta Bradford 6’4″ SG East Tennessee St.

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Bradford has a Tyler Johnson-ish profile, as he did it all for a very good ETSU team as a junior and senior. He is a bit undersized for a SG at 6’4″, but he makes up for it with excellent athleticism.

He does not quite match Johnson’s elite NCAA efficiency, but is nevertheless a solid flier. There are not many better UDFA gambles than an athletic mid-major star.

7) Chima Moneke 6’6″ SF/PF UC Davis

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At a glance Moneke does not seem like a prospect, as he is an undersized chucking PF who posted a 1:3 assist:TOV ratio in 2 years at UC Davis and is now 22 years old.

But he is very athletic, excellent on the glass, has good steal and block rates, and UC Davis defense was great with him on the floor and significantly declined with him off both years.

Moneke has a workable shot– he made 67% FT and 9/23 3P in his 2 years at Davis. He has also been able to score in his two games against elite major conferences defenses– posting 24 points on 10/15 shooting vs Ivab Rabb’s Cal team and 20 points on 8/13 vs Kansas in the tournament.

Moneke needs to develop an NBA 3, become a more willing passer, and successfully convert to the perimeter.  This is a bit of a longshot parlay, but the baseline talent is there and how can you not love that headband + goggles combo?

8) Bryant Crawford 6’3″ PG Wake Forest

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Crawford has solid PG tools, as he measured 6’3.5″ with a 6’6″ wingspan in 2014 and has solid strength and athleticism. He has good vision, can create off the dribble, and his 83% FT as sophomore and 87% as a junior conveys excellent shooting potential.

His only weakness is that he doesn’t have a major strength. All of his tools are decent but not great, and the same can be said for his basketball IQ and skill level. But if he develops well, he has an easy path to NBA rotation guard.

9) Jordan McLaughlin 6’1″ PG USC

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Small point guards are weird. Often times the most highly touted ones fail to translate to the pros, but occasionally a stud role player like Fred VanVleet goes undrafted.

After Jevon Carter (who was invited to the combine), McLaughlin is the best shot at a FVV level UDFA steal in this crop. He is a good shooter with elite floor vision, and an uncanny ability to be a pest on defense (77th best steal rate in NCAA) without fouling (6th lowest foul rate).

He overall had a less impressive career than FVV, but McLaughlin’s senior year breakout offers enough intrigue for the speedy PG to be a nice undrafted flier.

10) Malik Pope 6’10” SF/PF San Diego St.

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Chad Ford stanned so ridiculously hard for Pope as a possible top 10 pick that it became a running joke, especially without him ever putting it all together over his 4 year career.

But even if Ford’s optimism was highly unwarranted, there were non-trivial reasons to like him. There are not many 6’10” athletes with even possibly enough skill to play the wing, and Pope is still only 21 on draft night.

He never developed well enough to be truly exciting, but it is worth seeing if an NBA coach can find a way to get more out of Pope than he showed as San Diego State.

10 players I would disinvite from the combine to take a closer look at these guys: Malik Newman, George King, Allonzo Trier, Justin Jackson, Brian Bowen, Billy Preston, Austin Wiley, Devon Hall, Tyus Battle, Kostas Antetokounmpo

Zhaire Smith Has Plutonium in his Calves

06 Wednesday Jun 2018

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Zhaire Smith is one of the most unique prospects in the draft. He came out of nowhere to perform as one of the best freshmen in the NCAA in spite of being a 3* recruit. Let’s dive into his profile to estimate what to expect from him as a pro.

Profile

In spite of his 6’4″ height, he played like a power forward, using his nuclear athleticism to finish powerful dunks on cuts and putbacks. He also showcased his defensive potential by leading the #4 NCAA defense in both steals and blocks, and showed solid instincts for a young athletic freak.

He is limited offensively, as his shot and handle are a work in progress. But his 1.8 assists vs 1.1 turnovers indicates good feel for the game. While he has a slow release on his shot, his form is good and his 72% FT conveys decent shooting potential for an 18 year old.

The main concern is that he is a 6’4″ guard who showed limited ability to handle and create his own shot, and teams will be afraid of using a high lottery pick on his archetype.

Physical Comps:

Here are the recent prospects who have the most similar dimensions, athleticism, and NCAA statistical production to Zhaire.

Height Length Weight
Westbrook 6’3.5 6’7.75 192
Mitchell 6’3 6’10 211
Oladipo 6’4.25 6’9.25 213
Zhaire 6’4 6’9.75 199
LaVine 6’5.75 6’8.25 181
Shumpert 6’5.5 6’9.5 222

There’s a case to be made that Zhaire has the best physical profile of the bunch. He’s in the same tier of athleticism as Westbrook and LaVine but with better size. And the > 200 pound guys are all ~2 years older, he will likely weigh a similar amount by then and is likely more athletic than any of them.

Granted, athleticism is tricky to measure. There is no numerical way to pin it down, and it comes in various forms– first step, one foot leaping, two foot leaping, quickness, body control, etc. But to my eye Zhaire has special athleticism for two reasons

  1. It frequently appears he may hit his head on the rim when dunking
  2. He has elite body control to complement his elite explosiveness

The linked highlights are of impossible dunks that I cannot recall another player approximating. Zhaire has an uncanny ability to get way up while controlling his body to be able to smoothly finish from awkward positions.

But He Can’t Dribble!

UCLA vs Chico State. We won by a lot. Like 93 - 51.

To demonstrate how his handling ability compares to other players at the same age, I combined synergy iso and PnR handler stats into possessions used per 40 minutes and points per possession. And for a frame of reference, I threw in 2017’s elite scoring prospects to show how much top lead guard prospects normally produce as NCAA freshmen (and young sophomore Westbrook):

Age Poss/40 PPP
DSJ 19.1 10.3 0.85
Fultz 18.6 10.0 0.95
Fox 19.0 8.8 0.88
Mitchell 19.3 3.8 0.73
LaVine 18.8 3.1 0.61
RWB 19.1 2.4 0.72
VO 18.7 2.0 0.86
Zhaire 18.6 1.8 0.64
Shump 18.5 5.5 0.58

Zhaire has the lowest volume of this group and lower efficiency than everybody but LaVine and Shumpert. But his physical comps were all in the same tier of non-scorer at the same age, as you can see relative to the actual scoring prospects who crush the raw athlete wings in both volume and efficiency.

Westbrook set the record for highest single season NBA usage rate with above average efficiency. Oladipo scored 23 points/game in 17-18 with above average efficiency. Mitchell scored 24 pts/game in the playoffs as a rookie. LaVine went from worst player in the NBA as a rookie to solidly efficient scorer in his 3rd season.

Beyond the numbers, DraftExpress expressed doubt about the limited ball handling of both Victor Oladipo and Russell Westbrook.

The point is clear– a limited handle at a young age does not limit NBA scoring upside for a nuclear athlete with good basketball IQ and combo guard dimensions.

Zhaire is slightly behind his peers at this stage, but he is nevertheless showed flashes of impressive creation ability and easily roasted Mo Bamba twice. Perhaps he does not share the same creation success as the aforementioned comps, but he has enough baseline ability to build on.

So How Good Will Zhaire Be?

It is important to note that I did not try to cherrypick the most successful NBA players for this comparison. Shumpert and LaVine were my best attempts at comps that did not wildly succeed as pros, and they are both above median mid-1st round picks. And LaVine was clearly well below the group statistically as an NCAA player.

The intersection of elite athleticism and NCAA statistical production rarely fails, and often yields a high upside. It’s hard to find a truly pessimistic comp.

The only catch is that Zhaire is stylistically different than these comps. He was the tallest player on his high school team and often played center, which explains why he slid through the cracks as a recruit. This reflects in his Texas Tech performance where he played more like a garbageman PF than a guard.

Who Does He Actually Play Like?

Zhaire is statistically most similar to a pair of 4″ taller players: freshman Otto Porter and junior Jimmy Butler. Per 100 possession stats:

Age PTS 2P% 3PA FT% AST TOV
Otto 18.6 20.7 61.1 3.4 0.702 3.3 2.4
Zhaire 18.6 23.2 57.4 2.2 0.717 3.7 2.3
Jimmy 20.3 26.6 53.4 1.7 0.766 3.6 2.1

The similarities are uncanny as the offensive output is nearly identical. Jimmy did a bit more than the other two being older, but it worth noting I chose his best NCAA season as he slightly regressed as a senior.

STL BLK TRB
Otto 2.4 1.7 14.5
Zhaire 2.3 2.3 10.3
Jimmy 2.4 1.1 11.5

Otto + Jimmy show their superior size with better rebound rates, but Zhaire shows his superior athleticism with a better block rate.

Efficiency translates well to the NBA when it comes with the necessary physical tools to succeed. Even though Zhaire is 4″ shorter, his athleticism, length, and strength should make up for it.

Bottom Line

Zhaire is a weird prospect. He plays like a hybrid of Otto Porter and Jimmy Butler in Russell Westbrook’s body. I am not sure what that will amount to in the NBA, but I would bet it is good and it might be really awesome.

Of course this is looking at him through a rose colored lens that assumes he will develop reasonably well. If his shot, handle, and defensive instincts do not develop well, he could be an awkward role player who is not particularly useful. But the same can be said for any prospect who isn’t a #1 overall candidate.

History tells when things go well for nuclear athletes, they tend to go extremely well. Zhaire already made teams pay for sleeping on him as a recruit, now the same may happen in the draft as ESPN currently projects him to go 16th overall. I rate him as an obvious top 10 prospect in the draft with a strong case for top 5.

Is Trae Young Getting Overhyped?

24 Thursday May 2018

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Everybody loves Trae Young, as he is a skill wizard that reminisces of Steph Curry.

But he is not Steph, and I have expressed this sentiment in a data driven analysis of his team’s performance. But since not everybody is into data, let’s key in on qualitative factors that are being overlooked:

1) He is really, really small

Trae measured just 6’1.75″ in shoes with a 6’3″ wingspan at the combine. This is shorter than Steve Nash, Steph Curry, and Chauncey Billups who are all listed at 6’3″.

The vast majority of good players listed at 6’2″ or less have had elite athleticism on their side. Chris Paul, Kemba Walker, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, Tony Parker, and Ty Lawson were all described as elite athletes in pre-draft scouting reports at DraftExpress.

Trae may have underrated quickness and speed, but nobody believes it is top shelf. He is in a physical tier where nobody has been elite.

The only player who *maybe* had similar physical limitations and excelled was John Stockton. He is before my time, and I do not have a strong grasp on his athleticism. But for the sake of argument we will say he is physically similar to Trae. Except there is one key difference

2) Trae’s Defense Is Awful

John Stockton was a 5 time NBA all-defense selection. If you are 6’1″ without freakish athleticism, you need to make a positive impact in every possible way to sum to elite production. And Trae is downright abysmal on defense, where it is not clear that he even cares to get stops.

Oklahoma’s defense declined from 39th best to 85th best returning almost everybody after adding Trae. He rates as by far the worst defensive guard in the class via Jacob Goldstein’s PIPM metric, and his defense is visibly terrible in this scouting video created by @GuillaumeBInfos.

He is probably going to be the worst defensive player in the NBA as a rookie, and there is not a ton of room for improvement. His physical profile makes his defense risky enough even with good effort, and he has such a low starting point it is hard to see him ever becoming decent on this end.

If Trae is 3 or 4 points worse than Stockton or Curry on D, that puts a ton of pressure on his offense to merely achieve goodness, let alone greatness.

3) Will he perform better in a smaller role with less of an offensive burden?

He played AAU with the Porter bros Michael and Jontay, and did not show clearly better efficiency in a more limited offensive role. He also shot poorly playing for Team USA in FIBA u18 championship in 2016, as well as the Nike Global Challenge in 2015.

There is some possibility that he lacks the basketball IQ to be an efficient scorer in a medium usage role. He appears to be an extremely skilled chucker who was able to succeed early in his Oklahoma career when he was hot against soft defenses.

Maybe he can learn to be more efficient over time, but based on current information there is limited reason for optimism.

4) Trae fell off a cliff vs better defenses

Most of statistical goodness came against soft defenses. When he faced good defenses his production fell off a cliff. Compare Trae’s per 40 stats vs. top 60 defenses to Steph Curry’s 5 career NCAA tournament games:

Pts eFG% AST TOV Opp DRtg
Steph 33.6 56.3% 3.6 1.9 89.5
Trae 27.7 47.7% 7.9 6.3 95.8

People commonly lament the attention Trae drew from defenses, but Steph got the same attention vs much tougher defenses in the tournament and he shined.

These splits were a signal that Steph had some cerebral advantage to translate his goodness to higher levels while Trae did the opposite. It would be a good idea to stop making this comp forever.

5) Is Trae a High IQ Passer?

Trae has excellent vision, and Chris Stone made a reasonable case that he made a positive effect on his teammates. But the vast majority on his effect came on Brady Manek– a 3* recruit who was much better than expected and happened to specialize in offense. Once you give most of the credit for Manek’s performance to Manek, Trae’s effect on his teammates is only slightly positive.

When you factor in his high turnover rate, and his inability to punish defenses for the insane attention he saw, it’s hard to argue that Trae is an elite passing prospect.

Trae’s passing was good this year, and he could eventually blossom into great. But there is no clear signal that he is a historically elite passer (as I argued for Lonzo Ball last year).

If Trae merely becomes an 85th percentile passing point guard in the NBA, he will likely stick in the league. But it will not be enough to be great in spite of his disadvantages. He needs to be a crazy outlier in this regard, and the early signals say that he is probably not.

6) Is He Actually An Elite Shooter?

Trae has never shot above 36% from 3 at any level. Just in case you needed another reason to know why it is a bad idea to compare him to a player who makes 44% of his NBA 3’s at a high volume.

Part of this is due to awful shot selection and poor size, and he has some non-zero chance of becoming the 2nd best shooter in NBA history. But he has a long way to go, and his shooting may always be undermined by his inability to get clean looks.

7) Does Trae deserve excuses?

It’s amazing how commonly people excuse Trae’s flaws by explaining how bad his teammates were and how many triple teams he saw.

These type of excuses should be reserved for an elite talent like DeAndre Ayton who is so physically gifted that he has significant margin of error for his NBA success.

Trae Young is in a physical tier where almost nobody succeeds in the NBA and he needs to be essentially *perfect* to be great. Yet he has the following flaws:

–Doesn’t play defense
–Awful shot selection
–No history of efficient play
–Struggles to get shot off against tough opponents
–No clear positive effect on his teammates’ performance

His skill and vision is rare enough such that he can nevertheless find an NBA niche. But does he actually sound like a player that is an intelligent gamble in the high lottery?

Bottom Line

I don’t see a path to him sniffing Steph Curry’s level of goodness. Maybe he can become a low end all-star like the Dallas version of Steve Nash, but he needs a ton to go right for that to happen. If he falls short of Nash, he is going to be a difficult fit into a good starting lineup. He can be a bench microwave, but as lead guard his team will have limited playoff upside.

The realistic upside comp for him is Isaiah Thomas. IT drew some MVP chatter for his box score stats in Boston, but ultimately did not help the offense drastically more than he hurt the defense, translated poorly to the playoffs, and the Celtics became a better team after parting ways with him. That is not a player worth targeting in the lottery– Thomas slid to last pick in the draft for good reason.

In reality, Trae will likely be worse than Thomas. As special as his vision and skill are, he has even more qualities that are especially bad to drag them down.

He has such a weird and polarized profile, it is difficult to say exactly where he should rate. He has some non-trivial value. But there is currently too much wishful thinking that he may be Steph, and I would bet that anybody who drafts him in the top 10 will be disappointed with the result.

Is Trae Young the Next Stephen Curry?

13 Sunday May 2018

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Trae Young has gained immense hype as an outlier PG, as he posted monster freshman stats for Oklahoma averaging 27 points and 9 assists. He thrives on his excellent shooting, as he made 3.7 three pointers per game and backed it up with 86% FT.

His main weakness is poor physical tools, as he is just 6’2″ with a 6’4″ wingspan and limited athleticism. But Stephen Curry has overcome similar physical limitations, so it’s worth considering whether Trae has similar upside before writing him off.

What If He’s Not Steph?

There isn’t a strong middle ground for small and unathletic players to succeed as decent starters when they fall short of being an elite outlier. After Steph the next best diminutive non-athletes currently are bench players such as Tyus Jones, Shabazz Napier, and Trey Burke.

Steve Nash provides another example of an elite past PG, but him and Steph are rare breeds. They establish that a small non-athlete can be an MVP candidate if he is either

1) The best shooter of all time with elite passing and IQ or
2) The best passer of all time with elite shooting and IQ

Anything less than that, and you are probably a bench player. It’s a steep curve with little margin for error.

Golden State Warriors v Phoenix Suns

Trae and the Sooners

This past season Oklahoma returned all top 9 rotation players but PG’s Jordan Woodard and Darrion Strong-Moore. Overall they returned 79% of their minutes that rated comparatively well statistically, as 81% of their win shares and 80% of their minute weighted BPM came back.

The only significant additions were Trae Young and Brady Manek. You would expect that replacing mediocre PG minutes with elite ones while everybody else gained experience would catapult the Sooners forward. But they only gently crept up the standings.

The Sooners improved by 7.2 pts/100 on defense, but gave most of it back by regressing 4.6 pts/100 on defense. Overall they took a small step forward as they progressed from the #65 kenpom team to #48.

In spite of Trae crushing individual expectations, the Sooners underachieved pre-season expectations with every stat model and poll projecting them top 40.

When individual and team success misalign like this, it’s a flag to take the individual stats with a major grain of salt. Especially for a player with his monster assist rate, it is alarming that he may not have helped the team with his passing as much as he hurt it with his defense.

Big 12 Swooners

Everything was peachy for Trae entering January. He was on fire and so were the Sooners at 12-1 with the #13 kenpom rank. But they had yet to face a single top 80 defense, and unfortunately 16 of their 19 remaining games came against top 60 defenses.

Over the second half of the season, Trae came crashing to earth and so did Oklahoma. His per 40 minute splits tell the story:

Pts Ast TOV
vs non-Top 80 D 35.1 12.3 5.3
vs Top 60 D 27.7 7.9 6.3

This is ugly. Notably his assist rate fell off a cliff against better defenses. Trae has complained about seeing frequent double teams, but he could have done a better job of punishing them with his passing.

eFG% 3PA 3P%
vs non-Top 80 D 56.6% 12.6 39.7%
vs Top 60 D 47.7% 10.7 32.7%

Further, his shotmaking took a major hit against better opponents. He faced bigger defensive players, struggled to get his shot off, and forced low quality attempts that often missed. This is a major concern in the NBA, as most 6’5″ pros can easily stay in front him and tightly contest his shot.

Everybody wants to throw Trae’s teammates under the bus, but Oklahoma was 2.3 pts per 100 better in conference play in ’16-17 when the same players were less experienced than they were in ’17-18 with Trae.

Maybe we should focus less on Trae’s teammates being bad, and instead consider the possibility that Trae is the bad Sooner who will be bad in the NBA later.

Bottom Line

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In spite of his many flags, there is some hope for Trae. His individual stats cannot be completely ignored, as he has a rare combination of shotmaking ability and vision. He could become a very good pro if his decision making rapidly improves over time and he isn’t too bad on D.

But this is a long-shot gamble. He will likely be bad defensively, he will have trouble getting past most NBA defensive players, he will have trouble getting his shot off, and even though he sees the floor well he is not currently a high IQ passer.

He is such an outlier that it is fair to give him non-zero all-star equity. But this is a low % outcome, and there aren’t many cases where he falls short and is still useful.

Realistic Comps

The next tier of little guy after Nash and Curry includes Isaiah Thomas who a two time all-star. But he was a huge liability on defense, it’s hard to build an elite offense around him, and his performance fell off a cliff in the playoffs. After the Celtics traded him, he went from a likely max contract to a bench player who may never start again. This is why he slid to #60 in the draft– it only requires a small decline for his type to go from all-star to backup.

Trae has decent odds of being similar to IT. This outcome is better than nothing, but it’s such a difficult piece to fit into an elite contender, I would aim higher in the lottery.

And most of the time Trae will fall short of IT and be a Trey Burke or JJ Barea bench PG, which makes him far too risky to justify a top 5 selection. He is an underdog to be as good as Tyus Jones.

It’s fine to gamble on Young’s super-powered skill level working out in the back end of the lottery. But I prefer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the best PG in the class, as he has a higher IQ, higher ceiling, and higher floor.

We Need to Talk about Jaren

11 Friday May 2018

Posted by in NCAA, Scouting Reports

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Jaren Jackson Jr. is currently rated as the #4 prospect by ESPN. He is perceived as more of an elite role player than a true star with the upside of Luka Doncic or DeAndre Ayton, so let’s explore the validity of this narrative.

Physical Profile

JJJ measured 6’10” with a 7’4″ wingspan at Nike Hoop Summit at age 17, and he complements his strong dimensions with great mobility and athleticism. He is currently a bit skinny, but he has a nice frame that should fill out in time.

The only real flaw with his tools is that he’s not elite athletically, as he is more explosive in space than in traffic. But for an elite shot blocker, he covers a ton of ground defensively.

JJJ has a unique ability to both protect the rim and switch onto the perimeter. His physical profile is overall excellent, as it gives him endless defensive upside.

Skill Level

It’s difficult to predict NBA shooting from a small sample of stats, but JJJ’s shooting indicators are excellent for an 18 year old big. He shot 40% from 3 and 80% FT in a smallish NCAA sample and 40% on 84 3PA pre-NCAA according to DraftExpress (RIP).

His form is a slightly awkward push shot so these percentages should be taken with a grain of salt. But he also has a reasonably quick release, and there is some chance that he is a legitimately good shooter.

It remains to be seen how well he shoots from NBA 3 range.  But for a big with JJJ’s tools, having even a serviceable shot is highly valuable.

Further, he shows budding ball skills as he can attack from the perimeter off the dribble with surprising shiftiness and a good first step. He is still raw and often turned it over when he tried to attack, but his slashing potential is elite for an 18 year old big.

It’s hard to predict where his skill level will peak on the scale of decent to great, but he has rare skill potential for a toolsy, defensive minded big.

IQ and Instincts

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This past season Michigan State was nearly impossible to score on inside the arc, posting by far the best defensive 2P% in the NCAA. Here’s how they compared to stingiest interiors in kenpom’s database going back to 2002:

Year Team Def 2P% NCAA Avg Difference
2018 Michigan St. 38.4% 50.0% 11.6%
2015 Texas 37.7% 47.8% 10.1%
2017 UCF 39.9% 49.3% 9.4%
2004 Uconn 38.7% 48.0% 9.3%
2014 UC Irvine 39.2% 48.5% 9.3%

Texas boasted Myles Turner and fringe big prospects Cam Ridley, Prince Ibeh, and Jonathan Holmes. UCF and UC Irvine each had a 7’6″ big against mid-major schedules.  UConn had four (!!!) first round bigs: Emeka Okafor, Charlie Villanueva, Josh Boone, Hilton Armstrong.

All of these past outliers had some unique interior presence(s), and Michigan State is by far the biggest outlier of the bunch. Their performance can in part be attributed to a wealth of quality bigs and never gambling for turnovers, but JJJ was the clear star of the show accounting for 42% of the team’s blocks. And unlike these other defenses being anchored largely by giant statues, JJJ is actually able to defend the perimeter as he led his team in steal rate.

Much of his dominance was due to his his tremendous close out speed, but these indicators are decisively positive indicators for his IQ. He has sharp instincts, excellent timing on blocks, and appears to be an intelligent defensive player who rarely yielded quality shot attempts near the rim.

Given that individual stats, team stats, and the eye test all paint a favorable picture for JJJ, optimism for his basketball IQ is warranted. But he was not perfect, as he was foul prone on defense and turnover prone on offense. And his rebound rate was slightly underwhelming, so there is no guarantee that he is cerebrally elite.

Perhaps the fouls and turnovers are a product of youth that will become a distant memory with more experience, or maybe they indicate some flaw that will never fully go away. Maybe the rebounds were a product of playing in a supersized lineup with a not yet developed frame, or maybe his toughness and motor are slightly lacking. These questions are difficult to answer with any confidence.

To some extent we are guessing how intelligent and instinctual a player is based on limited information. This is a major part of the variance in draft predictions. But in JJJ’s case we have a unique clue to work with: his father’s NBA career

Chip Off the Old Block?

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Jaren Jackson Sr. didn’t even start in his first three seasons at Georgetown, averaging 7, 11, and 18 minutes per game respectively. As a senior he finally averaged 27 minutes and cracked double digit scoring for the first time to finish his 4 year career with averages of 16.5 minutes, 7.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.2 assists.

Then he unsurprisingly went undrafted, and did not play more than garbage minutes in his first 7 NBA seasons. At age 29, he finally earned his first consistent rotation role playing 15 mins/game for Washington.

Then Jackson moved on to San Antonio where he became a part-time starter for  3 years, and played a significant role in their 1999 championship run. He brought almost nothing to the table outside of shooting and defense, but he did so effectively, as he rated as slightly positive by both BPM and RAPM metrics as one of the original 3 + D role players.

At 6’4″ with limited athleticism and skill, Jackson is one of the least talented players to ever become useful in the NBA. He couldn’t get real minutes in college, couldn’t get drafted, and couldn’t get real NBA minutes for 7 years, but he nevertheless found a way to positively contribute to a champion.

Jaren Sr. must have had subtle but significant cerebral and intangible advantages that the basketball world failed to discern until he crossed paths with Gregg Popovich.

What Does This Mean For Jaren Jr.?

While there is no guarantee that Jaren Jr. shares these advantages, he should be considered more likely than average to have the overachiever gene. After all, 50% of his genetics came from a extreme overachiever at professional basketball. And the other half of his genes came from a basketball mom, making him 7″ taller, more athletic, and more skilled than his dad.

Even without considering his father’s career, JJJ is legitimate candidate for #1 overall. If this point has no bearing on his career, he can easily be a perennial all-star similar to Chris Bosh. And if he overachieves as much as his father did, he has potential to be a Kevin Garnett level generational star.

It’s difficult to say exactly how much weight should be given to Jaren Sr’s career, but it is a nice cherry on top of a highly attractive profile. If it carries any serious gravity, the payoff for drafting JJJ will be immense.

I believe it is correct to place some positive skew on JJJ’s range of outcomes based on his genetics. If nothing else it is yet another positive point to add to the endless list of reasons to be optimistic for his NBA future.

Bottom Line

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JJJ is not excellent athletically like Ayton nor is he skilled as Doncic, but he has a nice blend of both on top of possibly elite IQ and intangibles. His talent level is excellent and highly underrated.

It makes sense that he would be underrated, as IQ and youth are commonly overlooked and he is among the youngest and smartest players in this draft.

And to cap it off he doesn’t have any frightening warts. His shooting form is slightly funky, and there is some dependence on him progressing his somewhat raw skills at a reasonable rate. But compare that with the flaws of other recent elite prospects

DeAndre Ayton– Appears to be completely lost on defense
Luka Doncic– Lacks burst + shake to get past defense, will rely heavily on shotmaking as pro
Lonzo Ball— Major flags in his handling and shooting for a guard who is non-elite athlete
Markelle Fultz— Shaky FT% and his NCAA team was awful
Ben Simmons— Broken shot, awful NCAA team, intangible flags
Karl-Anthony Towns— Too slow to be good defensively
Joel Embiid— Major health concerns. Also late basketball starting age may inhibit his ability to score efficiently as a pro the same way it is difficult to learn a second language if you do not start as a child

JJJ arguably has the least off-putting warts of the group. And his team defense and genetics are compelling reasons to be optimistic for his NBA upside. From almost every angle of analysis, he is dripping with goodness.

Ultimately I rate Jaren Jackson Jr. as the best prospect of the past 6 years. It’s not by a big margin, as Luka Doncic could also be argued to be the best recent prospect and Ayton is not that far behind either.  But JJJ at least belongs in the #1 conversation, and letting him slide out of the top 3 would be nothing short of a historic draft blunder.

2018 Big Board

05 Saturday May 2018

Posted by in Big Boards, NCAA

≈ 19 Comments

I haven’t written much this year, so I am going to jam all of my takes into a giant mega-post. Note this list is missing every international prospect except for Doncic and Okobo because those are the only internationals I have looked at.

Missed the Cut

Khyri Thomas (#23 ESPN)

Khyri Thomas is a consensus first rounder as some project him to be an Avery Bradley-esque 3 + D prospect.

The first problem is Avery Bradley is not that good, and teams should aim for higher upside in round 1. The other problem is that even this may be optimistic for Khyri– Bradley was an elite athlete who was #3 overall recruit, whereas Khyri is a 2* who received only low major offers outside of Creighton.

It’s easy to see why Khyri was not coveted as a recruit. In spite of being 6’3″, he is a non-athlete non-creator. He mustered a modest 21% usage as an old junior with an inordinate 38% of his points coming in transition– a means of production which is not predictive of NBA success.

He could not run the pick and roll to save his life, posting just 0.6 PPP for 23rd percentile as per synergy as a junior. And this was actually an improvement over his 0.57 PPP as a sophomore. He turns 22 before the draft, and it’s hard to imagine that a 6’3″ player who is this inept at the pick and roll at his age providing NBA value.

And it’s not even like he’s a great shooter. He made 40.6% of his NCAA 3P, but that was with a somewhat low rate of attempts and 72% career FT. He will not make any special impact as an NBA shooter, and there is no guarantee that he is even above average.

His defense has some hope, as he has long arms, good steal and rebound numbers, and won Big East DPOY twice. But the potential defensive impact for a 6’3″ player is limited, and there is no guarantee Khyri is a positive on this end.

Ultimately Khyri has some hope of providing replacement level production, but is too limited offensively, athletically, and in height to have non-trivial value as a prospect.

Tyus Battle (#27 ESPN)

Why do people keep looking for mediocre Syracuse players to be draft sleepers? This happened when Malachi Richardson bizarrely was selected in the 1st round in 2016, and now ESPN has Battle projected #27 this year.

I am guessing there is some level of wishful thinking that a player will look great defensively once removed from the zone, but this has yet to happen for any player other than MCW. But Battle posted half the rebound rate of MCW in spite of being the same height, so he is a horrible bet to be anything other than lost on an NBA defense.

With a pedestrian offensive game to boot, it’s hard to see Battle providing value in the NBA.

Aaron Holiday (#19 ESPN)

If you are 6’1″ and can only defend one position poorly, you better have a special offensive repertoire to merit a 1st round pick.

Aaron Holiday has a completely pedestrian offensive game, so his hype train is bizarre. It may have something to do with his brother Jrue outperforming his #17 overall draft slot. But Jrue is 3 inches taller and significantly better at basketball, so the two cannot be compared.

Tier 5: Guys who almost may stick in the NBA, but aren’t special enough to get their own rank:

It’s really hard to differentiate #38 from #57. So here is a giant dump of players into the “maybe he sticks” tier

Udoka Azubuike
Jaylen Barford
Brian Bowen
Ky Bowman
Desonta Bradford
Bruce Brown
Jalen Brunson
Tony Carr
Jevon Carter
Gary Clark
Hamidou Diallo
Donte DiVincenzo
Trevon Duval
Bruno Fernando
Melvin Frazier
Devon Hall
Jaylen Hands
Chandler Hutchison
JP Macura
Charles Matthews
Ajdin Penava
Theo Pinson
Shamorie Ponds
Isaiah Reese
Jerome Robinson
Landry Shamet
Anfernee Simons
Omari Spellman
Gary Trent
Mo Wagner
PJ Washington
Kris Wilkes

Tier 4: Fliers

35. Vince Edwards
34. Alize Johnson
33. Kevin Hervey
32. Yante Maten

These are my favorite UDFA targets

Vince Edwards offers a good blend of passing and shooting for a 6’7″ player, and I am a bit surprised he wasn’t invited to the combine.

Johnson is a mobile 6’9″ PF who can pass, rebound, and maybe shoot.

Hervey is a prototypical stretch 4 at 6’9″ with a 7’3″ wingspan and the ability to pass, shoot, and rebound.

Yante is an incredibly intelligent player who was excellent defensively for Georgia and can rebound, pass, and shoot. He may be too slow and unathletic to translate his defense to the NBA at 6’8.5″, but his IQ gives him enough of a chance to be worth a flier.

31. Rawle Alkins
30. Lonnie Walker
29. Keita Bates-Diop
28. Shake Milton
27. Ethan Happ

Alkins has potential to be a decent 3 +D SG.

Walker fell flat as a freshman, but he is a 19 year old 5* recruit with good tools and frankly there isn’t much depth in this draft.

Keita Bates-Diop I don’t know why not stash him here.

Shake Milton also a why not. He lacks the athleticism and handling to be special, but could be a serviceable 3 + D.

Ethan Happ will likely be undone by his lack of athleticism and broken shot, but it cannot be ignored that he is a cerebrally gifted 6’9″ player with point center skills. He has special strengths for a non-lottery prospect, and should be valued as a real prospect in spite of his warts.

26. Isaiah Roby

Roby is a 6’7″ shotblocker with a glimmer of hope for perimeter defense and shooting ability. He could make for a late steal if he turns out well in these regards.

25. Elie Okobo

Okobo isn’t a freak physically, but he has pretty good length and athleticism for a point guard who can shoot. There are questions about whether he is cerebral enough to thrive as a pro, but he has enough upside to be worth a late 1st flier.

Tier 3: Solid prospects lacking elite upside

24. Jarred Vanderbilt

After a stellar Hoop Summit performance where he posted 19/10/3/2/2, Vanderbilt missed most of his freshman season with a foot injury. He was rusty in his first few games back, and then when he started to find his groove he re-injured his foot.

Vanderbilt’s appeal starts with his rebounding, as he posted a monster rebound rate. Here’s how it stacks up vs. past Kentucky freshman bigs

Player TRB% AST%
Jarred Vanderbilt 25.7 10.7
DeMarcus Cousins 22.5 9.2
Julius Randle 19.2 10
Anthony Davis 19 7.5
Karl-Anthony Towns 18.5 11.6
Nerlens Noel 17.4 9.5

It is probably a good idea to draft any Kentucky freshman who dominates the glass. And Vanderbilt easily had the highest rebound rate (albeit in a small sample), and the second highest assist rate behind KAT.

He isn’t as physically gifted as the other players in the table, but he’s 6’9″ and fairly athletic, and likely has some cerebral advantage to nevertheless be ultra productive. Given that he showed some scoring promise in the Hoop Summit and just turned 19, Vanderbilt clearly has a nice upside tail and is an exciting mystery box.

That said Vanderbilt has had a frightening amount of foot injuries for a player who just turned 19, so he also has plenty of downside. But he is a fascinating gamble for a player who is much more special than his draft hype implies.


23. Collin Sexton
22. Mitchell Robinson
21. Kevin Knox

This is the trio of talented young players all have some potential, but aren’t all the way there.

Sexton has an incredibly combination of coordination and explosiveness, making him an excellent isolation scorer. But his poor vision and dimensions make him a major liability with respect to passing and defense, and will always diminish his overall goodness.

MitchRob is big, athletic, and talented but has major intangibles flags, so who knows how to value him. Hassan Whiteside is a good comp for him.

Knox is super young and has a decent offensive skillset for a huge wing, but has a long way to go to become a good NBA player. That said I am interested to see how he develops as his frame fills out and he is freed from the shackles of John Calipari’s coaching.

20. Kenrich Williams

Kenrich offers everything you want in a 3 + D prospect. He is an excellent passer, rebounder, and team defender, and he can run the pick and roll in a pinch.

The only questions are about his actual 3 + D, as he shot 63% FT in college and may not be athletic enough to guard the perimeter in the NBA. But he has a decent chance to succeed at both, and this what makes him an excellent a 3 + D target.

Shooting and defense are hard to predict, so guys who are definitely good at other things and maybe good at 3 + D are better gambles than chasing the best 3 and best D. Which explains why I only have Mikal Bridges at #19 in spite of top 10 hype:

19. Mikal Bridges

Mikal’s NCAA 3P% (40%) and FT (84.5%) inspire promise for his shooting, while his steals, blocks, team success, and 7’2″ wingspan inspire promise for his defense.

But he was never reputed to be a great shooter, doesn’t have great form, and he lacks great strength, burst, and quickness on defense so it is easy to see him falling short of expectations in both areas.  If so, he will provide an awfully disappointing return on a top 10 pick, as he is not much of a creator, rebounder, or passer. And even if he can shoots and defends well, his upside is capped by limits in other areas.

Mikal clearly has a better shooting projection than Kenrich, but Kenrich’s superiority at everything else makes them similarly good prospects.

Is Mikal Ottomatically going to be a good pro?

Everybody loves to compare Mikal Bridges to Otto Porter, Rob Covington, and Danny Green with the hypothesis he is a solid bet to be on a similar level of goodness. The logic is that he mimicked their NBA role to be one of the most effective players in the NCAA, thus he should seamlessly translate to the same role as a pro.

This logic is dubious, as excellent NCAA play should be a pre-requisite for a 21 year old to be considered in round 1 at all. To deserve top 10 consideration, elite NCAA play at that age isn’t enough.

For comparison, he was the same age as a freshman as Otto was as a sophomore. As a quick and simple comparison, let’s see how the players fared in terms of points, rebounds, and assists per 40 minutes at the same age:

Points Rebs Assists
Otto 18.3 8.5 3.1
Mikal 12.5 6.3 1.7

Otto clearly waffle crushes Mikal, which is why stat models and scouts alike rated him as an elite prospect. It’s simply not realistic to comp Mikal to a player who was THAT far ahead of him at the same age. Even if they seem similar stylistically, Otto is flat out better at basketball.

Now let’s shift focus to more realistic comps such as Danny Green and Robert Covington, comparing career per 40 min samples for the trio:

Points Rebs Assists Blocks
Green 18.9 8.2 3.5 2.1
RobCov 19.8 9.9 1.6 1.7
Mikal 16.5 6.5 2.3 1.3

This is closer, but it is still clear that Mikal is behind.

Both Green + RobCov have superior rebounds and blocks to suggest nuanced physical advantages over Mikal. They also scored more, and superior creation may have subtle impact on their NBA success even in low usage roles. RobCov offers Mikal hope as a rare example of a good NBA defensive player with a low assist rate, but overall it’s clear that his natural talent lags behind this duo as well.

Essentially Mikal’s NCAA success came from limiting his mistakes and scoring efficiently playing in an elite offensive system for an elite coach. It is plausible that this translates to a useful NBA player, but it also may not. His weaknesses will be more frequently exposed, and his easy opportunities will dry up, and even if he does succeed it is unlikely to be to the same magnitude as the aforementioned trio.

While Mikal has *some* chance of achieving an Otto/RobCov/Green level of goodness, everybody in the lottery has some chance of reaching a greater upside.

Ultimately Bridges’s hype is based on the notion that he will mimic RobCov and Otto’s production as a pro, as their success in spite of low usage makes their success seem attainable. In reality it is not, as they are special in ways that Mikal and most other 3 +D prospects are not. He’s a solid 3 + D prospect in the back end of round 1, but he isn’t special enough to justify the top 10 hype.

18. Jacob Evans
17. Kevin Huerter

These 3 + D prospects also are much better passers than Mikal, and on a similar tier in spite of much less hype. Along with Kenrich, there are quite a few 3 + D players who should be valued similarly to Mikal that will be available much later in the draft.

Evans is a high IQ wing who does a bit of everything. He can be a good role player, but doesn’t have the shake or athleticism to have much upside beyond 3 + D.

Huerter is only 19 with a quick release and good lateral movement at 6’7″ gives him switchability potential. He has the most upside of the non-lotto 3 + D tier as he is strikingly similar to Klay Thompson.

16. Robert Williams

Robert Williams is long, athletic and statistically productive, but it seems like something is missing with him. His team defense was worse with him on the floor, and it’s a concern that he’s just an enticing talent who will never put it all together.

That said his talent is enticing, so it feels wrong to be totally out on him. He is a slippery prospect to evaluate, and it’s hard to know what to expect.

Tier 2: Possible All-Stars

This tier is really deep and really good, and can be re-shuffled to almost any order. I don’t see a huge difference between #15 and #4

15. DeAnthony Melton

Melton’s freshman season was a statistical doppelganger for that of Jrue Holiday.

There is no guarantee that his offense develops as well as Jrue did, but if so he can be special. He’s young, long, and athletic with exceptional vision and instincts. And if nothing else he can be useful as a defensive specialist.

14. Troy Brown

Brown has ideal role player traits for the modern NBA, as he is 6’7″ with a 6’11” wingspan with a good frame and the quickness to match up with guards on the perimeter. He has elite switching potential to defend 1-4, and he is also a strong rebounder and passer.

The big question is whether he can score. He was inefficient as a freshman, as he was turnover prone and only shot 29% from 3. But he has decent handling + shake, and 74% FT while only being 18 on draft night. There is hope that he develops well on this end. If so, he has star potential as a versatile wing who can do it all.

Or maybe he is a disaster on offense and does not amount to much, but his elite role player potential with sneaky star upside makes him worth stomaching that risk.

13. Josh Okogie

I have written about Okogie, and I am a firm believer in his goodness. Physically he is surprisingly switchable for a 6’4″ player due to monster 7’0″ length, a strong frame, and good athleticism and quickness. And his elite motor makes him a good bet to apply these tools effectively on D.

Offensively his game is a bit raw, but he is rapidly developing into a quality shooter and he is a good passer with a passable handle. He still struggles to finish near the rim, but he has a nice first step and if his handling and finishing improve he can be good offensively.

Okogie has good odds of becoming a Marcus Smart type with more 3 and less D, and he has plenty of potential to be more.

12. Michael Porter Jr.

It may be unfair to rank MPJ this low as he only played 2 NCAA games late in the season, and he posted great AAU stats as the #2 RSCI and had #1 overall hype entering the season. But RSCI has been on an extended streak of missing on top 3 guys, and MPJ showed some serious bust risk in the Hoop Summit as he reminesced of a hybrid of Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins.

For a player whose primary strength is scoring, Porter is not that good at creating quality attempts vs halfcourt defense. He’s not that explosive or shifty, and looks awkward navigating traffic. He nevertheless padded his Hoop Summit box score with breakaway layups + dunks, and this was likely a significant portion of his AAU production as well.

He cannot be firmly judged based on two NCAA games against good defenses after missing almost all of the season with injury, but he looked legitimately awful in those two games. He badly struggled to create quality shots off the dribble, and ended up settled for difficult jump shots that mostly bricked.

Given his one dimensional skillset, translation flags, and injury concerns, disappointment almost feels inevitable with Porter. But his talent cannot be completely ignored, and a Carmelo Anthony or LaMarcus Aldridge level outcome is firmly within his range. And if he hits the upper bound of his shooting potential, maybe he will be even more.

It’s possible I am underrating him at this slot, but he has so many flags and the other prospects in this tier are so good that placing him at #12 is not going out on a major limb.

11. Jontay Porter

It is really mindblowing that Jontay is brothers with Michael. They are completely opposite, as Michael is a heroball chucker who lives for buckets, and Jontay is the ultimate role player who is elite at everything but scoring.

Jontay is currently projected as a 2nd rounder (#36 ESPN) because he is a plodding big in a world where slow bigs are going extinct. This puts a dent in his stock to be sure, but he is too skilled at shooting and passing for the youngest player in the draft to be written off based on this alone. He is very similar to Nikola Jokic who slid to the 2nd round because of being a slow big, and this comp alone should be enough to establish Jontay as a lottery value.

10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

After I wrote a glowing review of Shai, he massively disappointed vs Kansas State, as he could not get past their guards and was roasted by Barry Brown for the bucket that ended Kentucky’s season.

After that performance it is hard to be convinced Shai is bound for NBA greatness, but I remain highly intrigued by what he has to offer. He has great PG dimensions and an elite euro-step to atone for his athletic deficiencies. He has a good feel for the game and while there are questions regarding his shooting, defense, and creation, there are enough possible answers to give him sneaky upside.

Most of the time he will be similar to Dejounte Murray with more offense and less defense.

9. Mo Bamba

Bamba is not that athletic, coordinated, cerebral, skilled, or really useful in any way outside of having a monster 7’9″ wingspan and standing reach. My eyes were really not fond of him, except he made use of his elite reach to post a statistically productive senior year, cleaning up with blocks, rebounds, and dunks.

He has recently shown an improved shooting form, and while there is little evidence that he will be a decent NBA shooter, it is nice to know he is at least working hard toward that goal. If his shooting develops better than expected, it’s easy to see him becoming a valuable pro.

I could see Bamba working out really well or really poorly. He is one of the tougher players in the draft to peg.

 

8. Trae Young

Trae Young is an outlier. His skill level is off the charts, and with monster scoring, shooting, and assist totals as a freshman, he has been rampantly compared to Stephen Curry. Let’s take a look at their freshman shooting stats (pace adjusted per 40):

3P 3PA 3P% FT%
Steph 4.7 11.4 40.8% 85.5%
Trae 4.0 11.0 36.0% 86.1%

This is really close. Trae had almost as many 3PA, and his lower 3P% could be due in part to bad luck in light of his elite FT%. Let’s move on to steal, block, and rebound rates:

ORB% DRB% STL% BLK%
Steph 2.6 12.8 3.6 1.0
Trae 1.3 9.9 2.5 0.7

This is where the comp falls apart. The two players have similar physical profiles, but Steph being superior across the board implies some subtle physical advantage and/or cerebral superiority.

My take is that Steph is in another league cerebrally. This manifests in him being surprisingly decent defensively as well as consistently finding space to get off quality shots in spite of his physical deficiencies and immense defensive attention.

With this in mind, I do not believe Trae’s 3P% was due to bad luck whatsoever. He was on fire during Oklahoma’s soft portion of the schedule, and then against Big 12 play he was often shut down by taller wings. He lacked the explosion to blow past them, and often settled for deep, contested 3’s. It is not surprising that he went through a major shooting slump because he was chucking low quality attempts.

Curry has the most outlier combination of shooting accuracy in fast release in NBA history, and it is unrealistic to project anybody to match it. And even if Trae is a similar outlier, he will likely be a much worse defensive player who struggles to find space offensively, and it is really difficult to see him ever sniffing Curry’s overall level of goodness.

Is Trae an Elite Passer?

If there is a path to greatness, it will come through his passing. Young has excellent vision and posted a much higher NCAA assist rate than Curry. There is some scenario where he has a Steve Nash level impact with his passing on top of almost Curry level shooting, which is why he belongs in the top 10.

But Steve Nash is a one of a kind player, and this scenario is the pinnacle of optimism for Young. In spite of returning almost everybody from last season, Oklahoma barely improved and under-performed preseason statistical projections. Common narratives will blame this on Trae’s underwhelming teammates, but the same teammates were not that much worse with a year’s less experience and Jordan Woodard (pretty good) + Darrion Strong-Moore (pretty bad) splitting PG minutes.

In spite of excellent vision, Young seems to be lacking high end IQ and decision making ability. Perhaps these improve over time, but for a player with his physical deficiencies there are too many worrisome signals to be too optimistic. He has an elite skill level to be sure, but his instincts appear to be merely good but not great, and this creates significant downside risk.

Young has a weird + polarized profile, and it makes him extremely difficult to predict. I lean toward the side of pessimism, but there is clearly enough unique goodness to amount to a highly valuable NBA player. I’m not comfortable dropping him out of the top 10, but I believe it would be a reach to draft him top 5.

7. Miles Bridges

Miles fits the 3 + D archetype perfectly, as his strength, athleticism, passing, rebounding, and shooting suggest that he will be a versatile role player in the NBA. His dimensions are too limited for him to be a perfect 4, but he nevertheless may have the strength and hops to succeed in that role defensively.

As a bonus, his burst and shake give him creation upside and all-star potential. Versatile role playing wings are valuable enough on their own, and when they come with a nice upside tail it is correct to draft them early and ask questions later.

6. Wendell Carter Jr.

Carter is a tough prospect to rank. To some extent he is a plodding big in a world where plodding bigs are rapidly dying. But on the flipside, his mobility is not that bad and it is really his only weakness. Meanwhile he can pass, rebound, shoot, score inside, block shots, and being good at that many things can easily add up to a good player. If he can adequately defend in space, he can be a mid-lottery steal.

It’s easy to see Carter having an Al Horford-ish career. While Horford is not the sexiest player in the modern era, he is still a valuable contributor and a great return on a mid-lotto pick. And there is wiggle room for WCJ to be better than Horford, so it’s hard to argue he does not belong in the front end of the lottery.

5. Marvin Bagley

Bagley is an awesome talent in the wrong mold for the modern NBA. He is an elite garbage man as his motor + athleticism make him an awesome rebounder and finisher, and his handle gives him some creation ability.

That said, he does not have the dimensions to protect the rim or the skill for the perimeter, not to mention that his perimeter defense is a major question mark. This leaves him in an awkward disposition. There is some scenario where he succeeds on the perimeter and you are left with a really unique and valuable player who can also function as a small 5.

But there is also a scenario where he’s a productive player who is an awkward fit with weaknesses that get exposed in the playoffs. Ultimately Bagley’s talent cannot be ignored and he should be valued highly, but his warts are enough to temper optimism from being extreme.

4. Zhaire Smith

Zhaire Smith came out of nowhere as a 3* recruit to have a monster freshman season and lead Texas Tech to their first elite 8 ever. The most shocking part of him flying under the radar is that he is a nuclear athlete, which rarely gets overlooked. But Zhaire was young for his class and raw offensively, and went unnoticed until late in his high school career.

He was still raw offensively for Texas Tech, playing a low usage role where he rarely attacked off the dribble and attempted a low volume of 3’s. But he was highly efficient in this role, as he posted an excellent eFG% and assist:TOV with 72% FT to give hope for his long term shooting ability. He statistically profiles as similar to Jae Crowder.

In terms of recruiting rank and physical profile, he is similar to Russell Westbrook. Westbrook also slid through the cracks as a 3* recruit due to being young and raw, and Zhaire is arguably the most explosive athlete in the draft since Russ. Westbrook carried a higher NCAA usage, but even after his sophomore year DraftExpress believed he had a poor handle.

It’s not clear how Zhaire’s handle compares to Russ at the same age, but there is no evidence it is drastically worse. What is clear is that Zhaire is more selective about the occasions on which he attacks and is much less mistake prone offensively. So he will likely not stretch his usage to a monster rate a la Westbrook, but there is plenty of potential for him to stretch his usage while also having the instincts to play efficiently.

It’s hard to envision exactly what Zhaire’s NBA role will look like. He could remain a Crowder-ish role player, or his athleticism could enable him to develop into a star scorer in spite of his current limits as a ball handler. But it’s so rare for a player with his combination of youth, efficient production, and athleticism to be anything other than a #1 pick, it’s not worth sweating this point. Once the tanking prizes are all off the board, I believe it is correct to take Zhaire and see what happens.

Tier 1: Tanking Prizes

3. DeAndre Ayton

Ayton is ESPN’s favorite to be the #1 pick, but draft twitter is less enthusiastic bemoaning his poor defensive instincts as he posted underwhelming steals and blocks for a disappointing Arizona defense.

The truth likely falls somewhere in the middle. Let’s quickly compare him to a couple of past prospects who had similar instincts– DeAndre Jordan and Julius Randle:

Stl% Blk% ORB% DRB%
Ayton 1 6.1 13.5 28.2
Jordan 0.6 6.5 11.6 22.3
Randle 1 2.6 13.4 24.7

Jordan eventually developed into a good defensive NBA player in spite of this. Ayton may not be quite as athletic, but overall they have similar physical profiles and Ayton’s box score stats are slightly more impressive– so you cannot rule out the possibility that he is a significantly more skilled DAJ.

I was highly bearish on Julius Randle for his poor defensive instincts with mediocre PF dimensions, but he now has a chance of becoming a good NBA player in spite of this. If both Randle and Jordan can succeed and overachieve their draft position in spite of similar warts, Ayton likely can too.

Further, he has much stronger positives than DAJ + Randle without having worse flaws. He has a monster physical profile and was highly efficient in a high usage role offensively, posting a 98th percentile halfcourt efficiency per synergy. He had almost as many assists as turnovers, and showed traces of shooting ability with 73% FT and 12/35 3P.

In spite of his flaws, Ayton has monster upside and an easy path to all-star production. There’s some scenario where is merely a more athletic Nik Vucevic, which is disappointing but not bad enough to drop him any lower than #3.

His questionable instincts are enough to set him behind the creme de la creme prospects, but he has offsetting strengths to be a #1 or #2 overall pick in most drafts. The bottom line is that while he is flawed, DeAndre Ayton is an incredibly talented player and an elite prospect.

2. Luka Doncic

More than a year ago I pondered whether Doncic was a LeBron level prospect, offering a generational skill level on par with LeBron’s generational physical profile. Now after meditating on this point, I do not believe he can be valued similarly as LeBron definitely had a generational physical profile whereas Doncic only maybe has a generational skill level.

The chief concern with Doncic is that he is not particularly explosive or shifty, and will rely on outlier shotmaking to be an NBA star. Yet he is only making 30% of his three pointers so far this year, and if this is an issues that persists in the NBA he could disappoint similarly to D’Angelo Russell.

That said, Doncic still has a monster upside that cannot be ignored. He is a wizard with the ball and is also incredibly cerebral in a monster body that moves decently well, and if he develops into an elite shot maker he can be a special NBA player unlike anything we have seen thus far. I still rate him as a solidly good #1 overall pick, it’s just that he has the misfortune of sharing a draft with somebody who is just a bit more special

1. Jaren Jackson Jr.

This kid has special written all over him. He is one of the youngest players in the draft, and was arguably the best NCAA player this past season once you get past his minutes being limited by foul trouble and a risk averse coach.

The narrative is that he is an elite 3 + D role player who lacks the athleticism and scoring to be a true star. He is at minimum the former, as he shot 3’s and FT’s very well for a 18 year old big and has exceptional defensive potential.

JJJ offers elite length, mobility, and instincts to be incredibly versatile both defending the perimeter and protecting the rim, and he played a large role in Michigan State having the most outlier defensive 2P% in kenpom history dating back to 2002.

It’s worth noting that Jaren Jackson Sr. rated well by RAPM metrics and was a solid 3 + D player for the Spurs, and JJJ appears to have inherited his father’s basketball IQ with a 7″ height advantage and likely greater athleticism.

The really interesting point for JJJ is that he shows traces of ability to score off the dribble from the perimeter, as he has a surprisingly decent handle and ability to change directions for such a young big. He is still raw in this regard and often turned it over trying to attack, but if this develops well with age it could elevate him from elite 3 + D player to a traditional mold of superstar.

And he doesn’t have any real weaknesses. His turnover and foul rates were both high, but not particularly bad for an 18 year old big. His rebounding rate is mediocre, but he was sharing the floor with super sized lineups and this could improve as his frame fills out.

I just don’t see how JJJ ever fails. He’s going to be valuable no matter what, and has monster upside to boot. He should absolutely be valued on the same tier as KAT, Embiid, and Anthony Davis, and has clear potential to peak as the best of the bunch.

I will note that I’m not certain who should be valued higher between JJJ and Doncic– both are awesome prospects who are dripping with upside. But I feel a bit more certain in JJJ’s goodness, and if nothing else it’s worth considering the possibility that he deserves to be the #1 prospect in the draft, as it is a topic that has yet to receive fair consideration.