Now that the draft pool is set, here is my updated top 50. Note that I am ignoring the internationals who do not project to round 1:
Just missed: Kyle Kuzma, Devin Robinson, Jake Wiley, Malcolm Hill, Jeremy Morgan, PJ Dozier, Wesley Iwundu, Jonah Bolden, Dillon Brooks
Lonzo Ball has unsurprisingly emerged as my #1. He is such an outlier of IQ and passing I find it overwhelmingly likely that he will be an NBA star.
Markelle Fultz is nevertheless a strong #1 pick if the Celtics choose him as expected. I expect him to become a star playing for Brad Stevens
Josh Jackson has aroused skepticism due to his poor shot and inability to be a #1 scoring option, but he’s holding strong as my clear choice at #3. He posted elite statistics, has elite athleticism for a 6’8″ player, and his competitiveness bodes well for good development. His poor shooting places him clearly below Ball + Fultz, but he has clear star upside.
Lauri Markkanen, Jonathan Isaac, De’Aaron Fox, and Jayson Tatum could be arranged in any order. Markannen is my big sleeper in the late lotto because it is understated how exceptionally rare it is for a 7’0″ to be such an elite shooter.
Zach Collins, Dennis Smith Jr, and Malik Monk form the next tier. Although I was a fan of Monk throughout the season, it is difficult to overlook the fact that he has a PG body without PG skill and is also allergic to defense and rebounding. There is hope of him developing into a Lillard type on offense, but he may not be much more than a spot up shooter who is a disaster on defense.
Beyond the top 10, the pickings get slim. OG Anunoby is a major risk to be a disaster on offense, but his elite tools, defense, and youth make him worth a gamble once the freshman are off the board.
Donovan Mitchell lacking PG skills at 6’3″ inhibits his upside, but his 6’10” wingspan enables him to guard SG’s and gives him a good chance of becoming a valuable 3 + D combo guard.
Harry Giles is a challenging prospect to assess, as he has significant injury flags and his basketball instincts looked awful at Duke. But his physical tools are stellar, and he was once upon a time the top prospect in this loaded class. DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard prove that top notch basketball IQ is not a pre-requisite to thrive as an explosive giant, and I believe Giles has the most upside of any non top 10 freshman.
Frank Ntilikina is another challenge. He lacks both skill and athleticism for a guard, and his statistics do not imply any hope of future stardom. But his 7’0″ wingspan, and reported elite intangibles and intelligence offer hope for strong development in the youngest player in the draft.
Caleb Swanigan is one of the funkier prospects in the draft. He is too short to protect the rim, and too slow to guard the perimeter. Yet he anchored a top 25 defense for Purdue, and posted stellar scoring, passing, and rebounding statistics. He is an awkward fit into NBA lineups, but if he fits in on defense he could be a late 1st or 2nd round steal.
Josh Hart is my senior sleeper. Hart would be exciting if he had a bit more height, burst, or shooting ability, but as it is he is still decent enough in all of the categories. And he had an excellent NCAA career, as he makes winning plays and led Villanova to 4 years of immense success. He has no special upside but has a solid chance of becoming a useful rotation player.
Luke Kennard is a fine selection in the late first for his shooting and offensive promise, but I am surprised that he is rated as a possible lotto choice in spite of his poor physical tools and defense. He could find NBA success similar to JJ Redick, but ranking near the lottery feels a bit too optimistic.
Justin Patton is an explosive big man who can finish lobs and do little else. He is soft on the boards and defense, and drew surprisingly few free throws for such a physically gifted interior scorer. If a team wants a young big outside of the lottery, Tony Bradley is a much better choice as his monster 18.7% ORB rate crushes Patton’s measly 8.0%.
Justin Jackson is another fraudulent Justin, and I am not sure how he even entered the lottery conversation. He offers a nice combination of size and basketball IQ, but excels at nothing. His frame and athleticism are limited, he is not an offensive centerpiece, and did not develop reliable NCAA 3 point shooting until he was a senior aged junior.
Terrance Ferguson is young with good tools, but has been awful statistically everywhere he plays. He does nothing but shoot 3’s at an average rate, and his draft hype seems predicated on the mystery of not knowing how he would play alongside his peers at the NCAA level.
Reggie Upshaw is my deep undrafted sleeper. He led Middle Tennessee to back to back seasons with NCAA tournament wins, and with a shooting leap could become a useful NBA small forward.
Dean On Draft 
You seem to have a massive blind spot regarding Markkanen’s awful rebounding and defense. He’s going to be unplayable vs some teams in the playoffs. I guess my question is: Do you really think a worse defensive/rebounding Ryan Anderson is worth the #4 pick in this draft?
I don’t see any reason to assume he’s worse on D than Randerson. He’s taller and moves decently well. Anderson also had awful stl/blk rates in college and although he rebounded better, he also played with smaller teammates.
OTOH I do think Markkanen has lots of potential to be better on offense.
That being said I have a sliver of doubt as to the strength of my pro-Markkanen sentiments. I still like him, but I may end up sliding him below Fox + Isaac for my final big because the points against cannot be ignored and the pro-Lauri case isn’t THAT strong.
Out of curiosity who would you pick at 3 for the Sixers? Jackson? It’s looking like they’re going to reach for Monk.
Why the change in heart on Monk? You seemed down on Tatum all year and I’m quite surprised you put him above Monk and DSJ, to a lesser extent.
Also, Lauri’s rim protection is too pathetic for a 7 footer (0.7 blocks per 40 minutes) for me to put him that high.
Love reading your posts and looking forward to your final big board.
Thanks! And yes I’d take Jackson or trade down.
Monk I really want to like, but it’s hard to ignore that his warts are really bad (PG size w/o the skill + awful D/rebs) and his strengths (shooting, athleticism) aren’t that special considering his size. If his PG skills don’t develop much better than expected, it’s hard to see him providing great value.
Lauri OTOH is much more likely to be special because shooting in a 7’0″ is much rarer. I might dip him a slot or two before the draft though, my faith in him is not infinite.
Tatum I don’t love but can’t hate either. He does a bunch of things well for a young guy, and doesn’t have any crippling weaknesses.
Interested in your thoughts on Ivan Rabb. Seems to have good tools with upside potential and a few notable flaws…but he has been sliding down draft boards over the last few months and I’m not clear why. Has he not tested out as athletic as hoped? Is there a momentum/consensus thing at play here? I’d be interested in your views.
It’s because he had a disappointing sophomore season. Instead of breaking out he slightly regressed and Cal missed the tourney. It is in part because he battled injuries early and was not surrounded by the best guards and wings, but his stock should have dipped a bit. That said he was so clearly the best soph coming in I think the draft people have been a bit overreactive
I really like your list, especially in the lottery, but I have a few rankings I disagree with. Let’s start with Harry Giles at 13. I acknowledge he was/maybe is an elite athlete, but he has bad hands and bad touch around the rim. According to hoop-math.com, his putback fg% at the rim was a dismal 43.8% (low sample size, I know). But that is lower than almost anyone I can find, including many point guards. Most draftable bigs I looked at were around 80% on putbacks at the rim. This is a huge red flag for me, and makes me think he is Kwame Brown 2.0, with added injury concerns as well. He’s too big of a risk to be a first rounder to me.
A couple guys that I think you and everyone else have too low are Derrick White and Cameron Oliver. To me DW looks like Jordan Clarkson who can better run an offense and defend. They have similar size and athleticism, and DW’s stats/40 are superior to JC’s in almost every way, and vastly so when it comes to ast/tov and blk rates. Again looking at hoop-math, DW also gets to the rim and finishes like crazy without being assisted, something many people also noticed about JC. I think a player who can be a superior JC should be drafted in the 15-20 range.
Cameron Oliver is more of a long shot to me, but a big with his athleticism, rebounding, shot blocking, who also has a chance to be a decent shooter is worth drafting late first round, 25-30. I think he is at least a similar level prospect to DJ Wilson and Bam.
I enjoy reading your posts and agree with many of your insights, keep it up.
Giles is a huge downside risk and is going to be worthless a reasonable % of the time. But his season is a small sample coming off multiple injuries and he was considered a tankworthy prize in this loaded class and has awesome tools. He’s the highest variance prospect in this draft and once the good stuff is off the board I’m fine gambling on him. I’m not really that confident in him, but I do think people are slightly over judging his 300 minute sample when he’d be in the convo for #3 overall if he played 0 minutes.
I agree with your White assessment for the most part. I noticed he gets to the rack and I actually was the one who first pointed that out about Clarkson and later Norman Powell:
But it’s important to note that Clarkson isn’t good and White doesn’t get to the rim as often as JC did in spite of being a year older, and also doesn’t have great tools. He does have other traits that make him an overall better prospect that JC, but I’m not sure I want to buy heavily. That said my 18-30 range is fairly fluid and you could be right that he belongs ~10 slots higher– it’s something I will reconsider down the road.
Cam I’m going to raise to 40ish on my next big board. Can’t overlook his athleticism and skill set, although I don’t think he has the BBIQ to succeed it’s worth a dice roll anyway. So I have him slightly behind Bam + DJ Wilson and roughly on par with Tyler Lydon.
Thanks for the compliment, I like your logic too
Thanks for the link. Looking at this stat for some of the other top prospects in this draft, the eye test for De’Aaron Fox proves true, he lives at the rim. I am a little surprised that Jawun Evans does so well too, in spite of below average tools. Very interesting stuff. Enjoy your six month vacation! Haha
just about the worst Big Board I’ve seen in awhile. You have zero skill or credibility and are a joke projecting prospects. I legit feel bad for you.
Don’t feel that bad for me. I don’t have to work a real job bc I make $$$$$ gambling on basketball for a living, and I’m now in the midst of a 6 month luxury vacation until basketball season picks up against next November.
So even though I have zero skill or credibility and the worst big board ever, my life is overall not terrible.