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Scouting The Hoop Summit: Can Mudiay Go #1?

30 Monday Jun 2014

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After writing my way too early 2015 preview, I received some commentary on my exclusion of Emmanuel Mudiay. I didn’t realize that he was being hyped as the 2nd most likely #1 overall pick, but Chad Ford says his Hoop Summit performance has him in the equation breathing down Okafor’s neck. Fortunately the Hoop Summit can be watched on youtube, so I decided to pick apart his performance and assess the extent to which I agree with the hype.

Offense
Mudiay played for the World Team and was given the keys to the offense as their only player cut out for heavy ball handling duties. It was clear that his objective was to push tempo in transition, where he is at his best. Also USA Team did quite a bit of pressing and trapping which opened up lanes for Mudiay to attack when the World Team beat the press. He didn’t do much attacking of a set defense, so this was the optimal type of game for him to thrive. Note that this is not completely unabridged, based on box score I’m missing a couple of missed 3’s and maybe a turnove. Then again maybe the box score is wrong.

Passing
3:32 Beats Johnson off the dribble and kicks it out to create an open 3 which is missed.
7:08 Attacks in transition, gets cut off by Oubre, passes to Inglis
7:50 Rises up for shot, changes mind at last second and throws ball away for turnover
22:35 Gets dual pressure from Johnson + Oubre in backcourt, almost turns it over, eventually world team gets called for 8 seconds.
24:47 In transition interior pass gets tipped away by Tyus Jones for turnover
27:50 Attacks on PnR, Oubre pokes away pass for turnover
34:05 World team beats press, Mudiay attacks and makes good decision to pass to Birsen for easy layup.
39:07 Beats press, kicks it out for missed open 3 attempt
39:48 Inbounds to Brandone Francis who makes long 2.
1:22:12 Threads the needle to Towns on the pick and roll, but the bounce pass is knee level and Towns can’t catch it.
1:24:42 Nicely passes the ball off to Lyles in transition who gets rejected by Oubre
1:27:54 Passes to a cutting Lyles who lays it in

Transition Scoring
3:55 Misses transition layup
10:54 Attacks in transition, gets cut off by Oubre on perimeter
23:22 Dunks on transition breakaway
31:03 Attacks and draws FT’s in transition
33:09 After world team beats press, Mudiay catches ball with open lane and explodes to hoop for made layup.
51:29 Beats Johnson in transition for made layup
54:06 Gets to hoop in transition, gets blocked from behind by Cliff Alexander
1:20:38 Rips strong rebound, pushes the ball in transition, dishes the ball to Murray, gets it back and misses layup.
1:22:54 Makes layup in transition
1:28:25 Draws FT’s in transition

Halfcourt Creation
19:39 Spots up for open jumper, blows by overly aggressive Pinson closeout and converts finger roll.
20:45 Two US defenders converge on Birsen who swings to Mudiay. Mudiay attacks open lane to hoop and misses layup.
52:38 Tries to attack Oubre off the dribble, can’t get all the way to the rim, kicks it out to perimeter
55:59 Blows by Alexander after shot fake, misses layup
1:17:25 Blows by Travis, misses layup
1:17:51 Gets crafty inbounding to himself off of Turner’s behind, almost turns it over when Winslow is ready for him at rim.
1:25:29 Jukes Johnson, blows to the rim and finishes +1
1:27:15 Gets matched up vs Okafor on the switch, can’t blow by. Gives ball up, gets it back, still can’t get past Okafor and badly bricks floater.

Jumpshooting
6:25 Hits mid-range shot off the dribble
35:28 Badly bricks transition 3 attempt
41:00 Makes pull up 3 pointer
44:24 Misses pull up jumper with shot clock winding down

Defense
The World played quite a bit of zone and I couldn’t find much foot of Mudiay’s man to man mettle. His length caused problems as he finished with 3 steals. Note that I couldn’t find the timestamp for one of his steals where he deflected a Stanley Johnson inbounds pass and then saved it to his teammate, and it was his most impressive steal. The occasions a USA player ventured into his zone defensively he was somewhat lazy, which is partially understandable given his big role on offense.

5:09 Lazy swipe in transition
6:09 Lazy help
9:01 In zone, makes little effort to cut off Johnson drive
20:00 Doubles myles turner, comes up with steal when turner attacks and loses the ball
24:52 Plays matador defense as he lazily swipes vs Oubre in transition
57:28 Uses length to pick off Tyus Jones’s pass in transition, draws foul going back the other way
1:27:05 Just watches as Jones attacks his area of zone and banks in floater

This may be kind of a mess for anybody who wants to re-watch, but at least it organizes the things that he did in the game for my synopsis.

Strengths:
-Great size for PG. 6’5″ 200 lbs 6’8.5″ wingspan
-Strong athletic package: quicks, speed, and explosiveness all present
-Good ball handler
-Solid court vision
-Didn’t make any appalling decisions. Passed the ball when he was unable to get his shot off. Does not appear to have Andrew Harrison-ish blinders. Only blocked once from behind, was a great athletic play by Alexander and not a bad decision from Mudiay.
-Showed ability to be disruptive defensively with steals. Hard to accurately assess his instincts w/o bigger sample, however.
-Beast in the open court. He pushed pace diligently and attacked every time he had an opening.

Weaknesses
-Sloppy with the ball. Threw away a number of passes
-Missed 5 clean looks at the rim. Can he finish in the half-court?
-Overall shot poorly at All-Star games. Between McDonald’s, Hoop Summit, Jordan Brand tallied 1/11 3’s 7/16 FT’s. DX says he shot 6/41 from 3 in EYBL. Is his shot broken?
-Somewhat lazy on defense. Will he capitalize on his tools on this end?
-Appears to be a work in progress in the half-court. This is where he needs to develop to successfully translate to tougher competition.
-Doesn’t have either an outlier tool or an outlier skill. What makes him a special snowflake?

Conclusion
Overall, there’s a lot to like and not much to hate, but what is there to truly love about Mudiay? First let’s start with his physical tools. They are definitely good, as he is a clear positive across the board. His body is similar to that of John Wall, who measured 6’4″ 196 lbs with a 6’9.25″ wingspan at the combine, only Mudiay was 1.5 years younger when he was measured. But I watched their high school mixtapes on youtube to compare their athleticism, and Mudiay is nowhere near as explosive as John Wall. Granted, he’s clearly a very good athlete and Wall is the gold standard for physical tools for a PG. But if we are talking about #1 overall for a PG with a pedestrian skill package, it’s hard to get too excited if he’s not going to be among the creme de la creme of athletes at his position.

The good news for his skill package is that nothing seems necessarily fatal. To me having blinders (this needs to become a scouting word, it is so descriptive of a common + important flaw) is the worst weakness a prospect can have. It was the reason why scouts so quickly soured on Andrew Harrison, he is awful at making crisp decisions. Once he puts the ball on the floor, he does often not changing his mind and frequently gets stuffed at the rim or turns it over. I was impressed with Mudiay’s ability to pass the ball when he didn’t have a clean look at the rim. Mudiay is also more athletic than Harrison, and with these two tidbits in mind I just don’t see Mudiay plummeting quite as hard as Harrison did.

But there are nevertheless reasons to be concerned. His shot might be broken, his passes were often off target, and he bricked 5 easily makeable layups. It seems that his fine motor skills are not good at delivering the ball where he intends it, and this is something that needs to improve. But if a player is going to be turnover prone, I’d rather it be due to sloppiness than blinders as the former is more fixable.

Also he didn’t seem to take a world of pride in his defense, which is never a good sign for a prospect you are banking on to become good defensively. I’d say he’s a major mystery box on this end. Even DX doesn’t take a stance on his defense in their scouting report, only noting that he has excellent potential without commenting either way on where he is now.

Overall it’s hard to know what to expect. I don’t believe he has as much risk of sliding the same way that Marquis Teague or Andrew Harrison did, as his tools are so universally strong across the board and his instincts appear competent enough such that I can’t envision giving up hope on him so early. I’d say even if he disappoints he has a strong chance of remaining in the lottery. But the reason why I didn’t list him in my top 5 most intriguing prospects is confirmed by his Hoop Summit performance: I don’t see the extreme level of upside that makes him worth the #1 pick at the deepest position in the NBA. Sure, he can become a top 5 NBA PG if he develops well enough, but what’s his ticket to the top 2? He doesn’t have crazy explosiveness, he doesn’t have any super skills or feel, he’s just a toolsy guy who does PG things well enough to be an appealing prospect. I don’t get the same sense of boundless upside that I got from watching Dante Exum’s signature performance vs. Spain.

I feel that after his freshman season, best case he looks like a toolsier Elfrid Payton. That is good, since Payton went 10th in a deeper draft and I liked the pick. In a thinner draft, that puts Mudiay in the conversation for #1 if neither Towns nor Okafor shines. Even if he doesn’t hit his upside he has a strong chance of ending up in the top 5 of my final big board. I suspect I’ll like him alright enough, but without a clear scenario where I truly love him as a prospect I’m marginally more excited for a handful of other freshmen. Best guess is that he ends up somewhere in the 3-10 range on my final big board, although he probably has a better shot of actually getting picked #1 than he does of ranking #1 according to me.

One last note– I don’t think it’s great that he is going to play for Larry Brown. Larry Brown to me is a dinosaur, in that he was probably awesome like 65 million years ago but is obsolete these days and may as well be extinct. His hatred of 3 point shots goes to show how stubbornly unsharp he is (check SMU 3PA’s vs 3PA allowed). He was a great hire for SMU since he quickly attracted enough talent to revitalize the program, and most college basketball coaches aren’t sharp minds anyway. But let’s not act like he’s going to teach Mudiay the right way to play basketball (although limiting his 3PA may not be the worst thing in the world for him).

Other Prospects At The Hoop Summit:
-The two prospects who guarded him the most were Stanley Johnson and Kelly Oubre. Johnson is quick for a prospect of his size, but I think asking him to stay in front of Mudiay was a bit too much as he had a hard time cutting off his drives. Also Johnson struggled to create off the dribble vs. the world zone. It could easily have just been a bad game, as it seems like it was a bad matchup for Johnson on a number of levels. But it woulda been nice if he did more to stand out.

-Oubre on the other hand showed awesome quicks as he seemingly cut off Mudiay’s drives at will. Literally every time Mudiay crossed paths with Oubre he had a bad time (7:08, 10:54, 22:35, 27:50, 52:38). Also Oubre’s block on Trey Lyles was pretty awesome (1:24:45). DraftExpress thinks Oubre has questionable defensive fundamentals, and I’m not yet ready to say that they are wrong but I’m starting to question their questions. Also from my mix tape studying Oubre might be the most explosive guy on the floor and he finished with 3 assists and 1 turnover, so he’s checking off all of the boxes for me. It’s possible that he’s like Wiggins but slightly less athletic and way better at basketball. Again, maybe just a good game/good matchup but my intrigue is growing.

-Jahlil Okafor is kind of a black hole. His final box score looks alright if you focus on the 14 points and 10 rebounds, but 0 assists and 4 turnovers are less impressive. Historically his assist stats are not good, so I hope he’s not just a bigger Jabari (which is an astute comparison that was made in the comment section of my prior post). The good news is that he showed some quick feet to stay in front of Mudiay twice in a row (1:27:15) which can somewhat mitigate his lack of rim protection.

-Tyus Jones is like 90% to be a boss. He might be my favorite college player in this class. He is small and lacks elite athleticism however, so this places a damper on his ability to have high NBA draft stock.

-Justise Winslow had a good game, although it was mostly from scoring points in transition, finishing a nifty lob from Jones, and hitting a buzzer beating 3 to end the 1st half. So I don’t think he proved he can fit in offensively at higher levels, he just had a good game. I still like him and remain hopeful for his Duke performance.

-Myles Turner was there but I believe he was combatting an injury that prevented him from shining. Based on his profile he seems to have at least some #1 overall equity, although he carries a slippery raw label which to me implies that he is bad at converting his physical strengths into production.

-Trey Lyles is completely meh to me. As far as I can tell he racks up points and rebounds without actually doing anything that will be exceptionally useful at the NBA level.

-Karl Towns had a disappointing game. 17 minutes, 6 points, 0 assists, 4 turnovers, 4 fouls. If he has too many games like this at Kentucky he’s not going #1. But he did have a great block + rebound + outlet pass sequence at 8:22 that stood out to me.

-Cliff Alexander has a small slice of #1 equity, with the emphasis on small. He has a great PF body and is an explosive athlete, but he appears to have a center skill level which places a damper on his upside. He didn’t do too much this game, although he had an impressive block on Mudiay and a couple of tough goaltending calls went against him.

If I had to guess who would end up #1 on my big board among the players in the game, my rankings go Towns > Okafor > Oubre > Johnson > Turner > Winslow > Mudiay > Alexander > Jones. It’s the thinnest of thin slice predictions, so these rankings may look totally bananas a year from now. But I’m addicted to making predictions, so I may as well give it a whirl.

Way Too Early 2015 NCAA Rankings

29 Sunday Jun 2014

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Top Returning NCAA Players
1. Willie Cauley-Stein: 7’0″ C, Kentucky, Jr.
Cauley-Stein made a surprising decision to stay in school given how jam-packed Kentucky’s front-court will be next year. Julius Randle is gone, but 5 star recruits C Karl Towns and PF Trey Lyles arrive and Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee, and Alex Poythress have an extra year of seasoning. I’m curious to see how Cal manages his rotations, as WCS was prone to landing in his doghouse this past season and now plays in a more crowded frontcourt.

WCS does have his shortcomings: he’s a pure garbageman on offense and he doesn’t have the best focus or bbiq on defense. But he is huge, athletic, and exceptionally mobile for a 7 footer. Even the quickest of guards have a difficult time blowing by him on switches, so whatever NBA team drafts him gets quite the versatile piece to work with defensively. He is a similar prospect to Clint Capela, but he has more girth and slightly less sexy stats. I’m fairly stubborn that this is a mold that should not slide deep in the draft, even though it seems to happen quite a bit. If WCS lands in Calipari’s doghouse again he could slide and provide great value for the team that bites on him. He’s a favorite to end up in the top 10 on my final big board next season.

2. Bobby Portis: 6’10” PF, Arkansas, So.
Bobby Portis was a 5 star recruit who was curiously underhyped in spite of a great freshman season, but that has been rectified as he’s now 18th in DX’s 2015 mock and ESPN has him marked as possible lotto pick. He measured 6’10.5″ at the Nike Skills Camp this summer after being listed at 6’9″ as a freshman– I don’t know the margin for error for camp measurements but if he actually grew an inch that’s a happy development. He isn’t much of a leaper, but the extra inch leaves him with a nice PF body to go with a great motor as Portis always plays hard. Prospects with average tools and good feel for the game tend to get undervalued in the draft, but if Portis builds on his freshman season with a strong sophomore showing he could be a top 10 value next year.

3. Frank Kaminsky: 7’0″ PF/C, Wisconsin, Sr.
The perpertual victim of his poor face test, Kaminsky has to work against rather strong cognitive biases to get drafted in the lottery next season. Currently DX has him 23rd in the 2015 mock, so early signs show a glimmer of hope. He’s tall, coordinated, and can score from anywhere, and that’s a combination of traits I have an easy time getting on board with. Regardless of where he actually goes, he’ll likely need to have a disappointing senior season to not end up as a lottery value on my big board

4. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: 6’7 SF, Arizona, So.
Hollis-Jefferson is more or less a poor man’s Aaron Gordon. He was a much better freshman FT shooter at 68%, and the two had strikingly similar stats overall. But he’s 2 inches shorter, 6 months older, and less explosive. He may not be a top 5 pick like Gordon, but there’s plenty to like and he has a strong chance of becoming a lottery value on my big board and a lottery pick in reality.

5. Delon Wright: 6’5″ PG, Utah, Sr.
The crafty and lengthy Wright is back for his senior year after blowing away expectations in his first NCAA season as a JuCo transfer. It will be interesting to see if he can replicate the lofty statistical standards he set as a junior, and personally I do have my doubts about Wright. He got a ton of his points wrecking doormat teams in transition, he’s exceptionally skinny, and he’s at best an average athlete. But I also have a soft spot for weird molds, and unless his performance falls off a cliff I’ll likely have him as a 1st rounder. With a strong enough showing he could even ascend to lottery status.

6. RJ Hunter: 6’5″ SG, Georgia State, Jr.
My favorite 3 + D prospect in the draft, Hunter stuffs the statsheet the same way that Kyle Korver and Danny Green did in college. If NBA teams don’t learn that these types are too useful to slide to the back end of round 2, he’ll be a great value for somebody. Hunter’s big concern is strength as he’s rail thin, which will rightfully scare teams at least a little bit. But I’m pretty sure I’m going to rank him as a 1st rounder anyway, his stats are too good not to.

7. Sam Dekker: 6’7″ SF, Wisconsin, Jr.
Dekker is a vanilla 3 + D SF with solid but not great stats. I have a hard time finding distinct strengths or weaknesses for him, he seems middling in every regard. That’s not going to stop him from becoming an alright role player though, and that makes him a fine pickup late in round 1.

8. Jerian Grant: 6’5″ PG/SG, Notre Dame, Sr.
Grant is a volatile prospect and I have no idea where I’ll rank him. He appeared en route to a breakout junior season after 12 games, but then he was suspended for the remainder of the year. He is going to be a 22 year old senior now, so he really needs to dominate to justify a 1st round selection. In the case that he does he offers an interesting package of shooting, handling, and passing and he has the tools to possibly defend either guard position. DX expresses concerns about him being lazy, but if he can get his act together as a senior he exudes intrigue to me.

Others To Watch
Wichita State fans who are tired of hearing me bash Cleanthony Early can rejoice, as I like both Ron Baker and Fred Van Vleet and am rooting for them to sneak into round 1. They were the guys who created all of the offense and should be a terrific backcourt duo this season. I’m not sure either has the tools to get all the way into round 1, although Chad Ford has marked Baker as a possible 1st rounder. Either way I’ll be watching plenty of Shockers basketball next season.

We finally get to see if Florida PF Chris Walker can actually play or not. That said I’m not sure it matters a ton since he seems to be a dreaded C in a PF body, so I don’t buy the lottery hype for a second.

If you watch Montrezl Harrell’s dunk reel, may be convinced that his lottery pedigree is justified. It isn’t. He’s a one dimensional dunker who doesn’t have either the size or skill to thrive in the NBA. Unless he develops his skill level big time this offseason I’m a seller.

Wayne Selden, Andrew Harrison, and Aaron Harrison are all back to try to redeem their disapppointing freshmen seasons and prove that they do belong in round 1. Of the three, I have Aaron Harrison as the most likely player to justify a 1st round selection.

Caris Levert made a big leap for Michigan this past season, and with Stauskas and Robinson gone he has an opportunity to make another surge forward and get drafted in round 1.

Michael Qualls’ skill level remains a work in progress, but he’s the most electric dunker in the NCAA. If he can make another leap forward he could justify a 1st round pick.

Briante Weber looms as the athletic PG who is beloved by draft models due to his broken steal rate playing for VCU’s press. He has potential as a Rajon Rondo lite.

Most Intriguing Freshmen:
1. Karl Towns: 7’0″ C, Kentucky
He’s only the #7 RSCI recruit, but he may have the best shot of getting selected #1 overall. He has a great body for a center and he’s skilled and coordinated too. If he plays to his potential as a freshman, he’s not the mold of prospect who you can pass up at #1.

2. Jahlil Okafor: 6’11” C, Duke
The #1 RSCI recruit as well as the early favorite to go #1, he sounds like a nice prospect to me but I’m not convinced he has a stranglehold on the slot. He has great length at 7’5″ and he’s also strong and reasonably mobile, but he’s not explosive and there are doubts about his ability to be a defensive stud. He played for the u19 USA team in Prague at age 17 and posted absolutely monster stats. He sort of sounds like Zach Randolph if Z-Bo was 2 inches taller, which is a pretty interesting prospect. I’d say he’s a good bet to go in the top 5, and either him or Towns will end up being the #1 selection a fairly high %.

3. Stanley Johnson: 6’7″ SF, Arizona
So I guess it’s now a rule that smart, toolsy combo forwards with dubious outside shooting are required to attend Arizona. It’s a rule that I endorse, as I like this mold of player and I like the way Sean Miller makes use of them. Johnson is 6’7″ 237 with a 6’11” wingspan, which is a fantastic body for a young SF prospect. He’s also athletic, a competitive defensive player, and a willing passer so he sounds like a prospect that I will have an exceptionally easy time getting excited over. I have high hopes for Stanley and think he has a great shot of landing in the top 5 and is a solid dark horse for #1 overall.

4. Justise Winslow: 6’6″ SF, Duke
Winslow is a slightly smaller Johnson doppelganger as far as I can tell. Surely the two will display differences once we actually see them both play, but he’s another unselfish, defensive SF that I’m excited for. My impression is that he’s a longshot to go #1 because his tools are only solidly good across the board and he doesn’t have a standout attribute, but if he’s as good as I suspect there is always room for a Winslow type in my top 5.

Duke fans who are tired of hearing me bash Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker can rejoice as I have high hopes for Winslow, Okafor, and Tyus Jones (who didn’t crack my top 5 due to his size but sounds like an awesome college player if nothing else), and it’s possible that I end up bullish on all 3 of them. It’s also possible that they disappoint, but I have had a strong feeling that I would like the coming team more than the prior team for the entirety of last season.

5. Kelly Oubre: 6’6″ SF, Kansas
He’s long (7’2″), athletic, and can get buckets which gives him a puncher’s shot at #1 if he exceeds expectations. Oubre is the prospect who stands out as the widest range of outcomes for me, as I could see myself either loving him or hating him if he proves to be a non-defense playing chucker.

Player That Will Break VJL’s Draft Model And Never Actually Get Picked:
Tanner Omlid: 6’3″ F (apparently), Army, So.
I stumbled across Omlid when perusing sports-reference.com for possible sleepers, and man is he an interesting case. He completely stuffs the statsheet with steals, blocks, assists, rebounds, 2p%, and even shows some hope of becoming an adequate shooter (29.5% 3’s, 68% FT’s).

The steals especially stand out, as he tallied a whopping 6.6% steal rate as a freshman which trumps even that of Marcus Smart (5.0%). The only other player that had a steal rate higher than 5.5% this past season was Briante Weber (6.8%), who did so with the aid of VCU’s Havoc press. Army doesn’t seem to have any sort of steal generating gimmick, as the rest of the team has completely pedestrian steal rates. For comparison, Weber created 30.9% of his teams total steals playing 14.2% of the team’s total minutes, Omlid generated 33.6% of his teams steals playing just 8.9% of the total minutes.

Granted, Weber is surrounded by more talent and plays against higher levels of competition, but this is still a stunning outlier. Omlid was almost certainly the beneficiary of sample size variance, as I’m taking the under on a 6% steal rate for him next year easily. But he’s somebody that I plan to monitor and hope to catch a glimpse of if an Army game ever appears on TV. If he plays forward for Army, perhaps he’s long and athletic enough to find a niche in the NBA as a SG one day.

A few caveats: he’s still only a sophomore and almost certainly is staying in school for 4 years since he’s unlikely to get noticed playing at Army. Further, a large part of his appeal is his likely youth, but he could be a bizarrely old for his class as I cannot find his date of birth. And most importantly, he is a stone cold lock to get undervalued by scouts based on his dubious face test.

Post Draft Re-Ranks: 1. Hinkie

28 Saturday Jun 2014

Posted by in Big Boards

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Now that I have seen how the draft actually played out and processed all of the twists and turns and surprises, I. And if the title doesn’t make it clear, I think Sam Hinkie absolutely crushed the draft and has furthered my suspicion that he is the future best GM of all time.

I loved that he was a stone cold baller and gambled on Joel Embiid at #3 overall, but what I was also anticipating how he would use the #10 overall pick.  The players that I liked there were international bigs (Capela, Nurkic) which didn’t make a world of sense with Noel and Embiid there or PG’s (Ennis, Payton) who didn’t make much sense with MCW there.  Then the next guys on my board were KJ McDaniels and Kyle Anderson who slid all the way to the 30’s, so there is no need to expend a valuable lottery pick on them as Sam Hinkie went ahead and snagged KJ at #32 overall. I felt that trading down was the obvious play, but finding a good deal can be hard. Hinkie ended up finding his own deal by reading Rob Hennigan’s soul.

Orlando surprised when they took Aaron Gordon 4th overall with Marcus Smart and Dante Exum on the board as logical choices for a team that badly needed a PG. Of course Hinkie perfectly deduced the implications of this: they were targeting Elfrid Payton 12th overall, as Payton had been dominating workouts and fits Hennigan’s affinity for toolsy, defensive minded prospect who cannot shoot.  But it’s not easy to get much in a trade down from 10 to 12 when the teams at 10 and 11 are not likely to snipe Orlando, so Hinkie came up with the creative solution of becoming 100% likely to snipe Orlando by taking Payton himself. Instead of getting a nominal fee for trading down two slots, Hinkie picked up the 2017 1st rounder that Philly had sent Orlando in the Dwight Howard trade, and a 2015 2nd rounder that should be in the 30’s. That’s a significant vig for trading down from 10 to 12.

Note that I’m not certain that this is precisely how it played out, it’s merely how it sounds to me after piecing the available information together. I’m not sure how Hinkie may have roped Hennigan into paying that much to move up 2 slots without playing Jedi mind games.

Hinkie then took Dario Saric 12th overall who will be stashed in Europe for the next 2+ years, and should appreciate in value over that span. I imagine that Saric ends up getting dealt to another overmatched GM before he ever puts on a Philadelphia uniform, as he seems to have more value as a trade chip than an NBA player based on limited info. I may be wrong, but that’s my prediction.

For Sam Hinkie the draft is more than an opportunity to draft potential superstars like Joel Embiid. It’s also a chance to ravage lesser front offices in trades. We kept hearing over and over about Wiggins being Philly’s #1 target, and to me that reeked of misinformation since Joel Embiid was in the draft too. I don’t know if he was going to leverage that to trade up for #1 and surprise snipe Embiid from Cleveland, or if he was going to snag Wiggins #3 overall and then completely clean out a team who feels that Hinkie’s adoration for Wiggins confirms the hype. But after the draft we got this from Woj:

 ·  Jun 26
As it turns out, Philadelphia never made a run at Cleveland’s No. 1 overall pick, league sources tell Yahoo.

The great thing about Woj is that he always has his facts straight in a world where Ric Bucher and Chris Broussard sometimes try to break news as well. If Hinkie didn’t try to trade up for #1 after Embiid’s injury red flags were heightened, that supports my hypothesis that Embiid was his target all along. Unfortunately we will never know exactly what Sam Hinkie’s master misinformation plan was, but I imagine it was awesome.

Hinkie also went ahead and drafted my #13 player at #32 overall and my #21 player at #52 overall. And since New Orleans had so much fun getting hustled by Hinkie last draft, they decided to sneak in a quick losing trade when they shipped D-League extraordinaire Pierre Jackson for the #47 pick. I didn’t love the Jerami Grant pick at #39, but I had it above slot value and I don’t have a hard time hopping on board with the pick if Hinkie likes him.

If you root for a team that isn’t going to be good anytime soon and is low on my prediction list for good drafting, it might be a while before you can root for a winner. I highly recommend adopting Philadelphia as a 2nd team to root for (or a new favorite team altogether). You can get in on the ground floor and while it will be a few of years before they are good, they are eventually going to be great. Hinkie is too sharp and too creative for their fate to be otherwise.

 

Here are my updated predictions for who had the best draft nights, with my pre-draft predictions in the far right column for comparison.

Team Post Pre
Philly 1 2
Houston 2 3
Spurs 3 1
Boston 4 4
Denver 5 17
Orlando 6 12
Utah 7 10
Detroit 8 9
Memphis 9 11
Phoenix 10 8
OKC 11 5
Toronto 12 7
Charlotte 13 22
Atlanta 14 6
Sacramento 15 18
Miami 16 15
New Orleans 17 21
Brooklyn 18 25
New York 19 22
LA Clippers 20 16
Minnesota 21 24
Chicago 22 14
Milwaukee 23 13
Cleveland 24 20
LA Lakers 25 19

I still think Houston got the steal of the draft in Capela. For whatever reason, NBA teams are much quicker to sour on toolsy bigs with questionable skill/feel than toolsy wings with questionable skill/feel (evidence: Harrison Barnes was drafted before Andre Drummond), even though bigs have such an easier path to usefulness. It doesn’t make sense to me that Andrew Wiggins can show worrisome skill deficiencies and still get picked #1 overall in the same world where DeAndre Jordan slides to round 2. And the reasons for Capela sliding sound especially dubious (he was bad at all-star practices, let’s value that more than playing for an actual professional team in a real sample of games). Maybe Capela never becomes anything but at 25th overall there’s no way it’s anything other than a great gamble.

Note that I placed a premium on higher picks, which is why Minnesota and Chicago evaded the bottom 3 in spite of having the most obviously bad drafts.

I also decided to re-rank the players based on the actual draft outcome. I’m truncating the list at top 40, because I don’t see the value in going beyond that. I was pretty much picking names out of hats to fill out the bottom of my list, and does it really matter if I rank Cleanthony Early 50th or 73rd or 374th? I wouldn’t draft him and I doubt there are more than 40 players worth drafting in any given crop of prospects, so that’s the limit to which I will rank in the future:

Rank Player
1 Joel Embiid
2 Dante Exum
3 Marcus Smart
4 Aaron Gordon
5 Andrew Wiggins
6 Jabari Parker
7 Jusuf Nurkic
8 Clint Capela
9 Noah Vonleh
10 Tyler Ennis
11 Elfrid Payton
12 Kyle Anderson
13 KJ McDaniels
14 Nik Stauskas
15 TJ Warren
16 Dario Saric
17 Mitch McGary
18 Damien Inglis
19 James Young
20 Jarnell Stokes
21 Spencer Dinwiddie
22 Jordan Adams
23 Julius Randle
24 Adreian Payne
25 Nikola Jokic
26 Gary Harris
27 PJ Hairston
28 Bogdan Bogdanovic
29 Jerami Grant
30 Doug McDermott
31 Vasilije Micic
32 Walter Tavares
33 Nick Johnson
34 Glenn Robinson III
35 Zach LaVine
36 Shabazz Napier
37 Dwight Powell
38 Semaj Christon
39 Josh Huestis
40 Russ Smith

I didn’t go too wild scooting Saric up my board since I’m not convinced Hinkie is keeping him. But I upticked him anyway based on the possibility of such and my lack of conviction that he is definitely overrated.

I mostly skewed up the good team picks that I was not high on. I’m still fairly skeptical of the Payne pick for Atlanta since Ferry isn’t the most proven GM. He has impressed me recently and seems to have genuinely improved from his Cleveland days, but he is no Hinkie and I think he overdrafted for fit and eschewed a fair bit of value in the process.

TJ Warren I have an easy time getting on board with. I didn’t have a strong reason to oppose him before, and he’s such a unique mold that he probably has his own brand of upside. Jeff Hornacek mentioned that his defensive versatility stood out in workouts (which is credible given Warren’s steal rate), and if Horny likes TJ’s defense then I do too.

I’m still somewhat skeptical of James Young, as I feel Ainge is overrating his odds of becoming a good defensive player. It doesn’t seem impossible for him to become above average, but he strikes me as a clear underdog. Ainge also pointed out that Young has always been a great shooter and believes he ran bad as a freshman, which is a hypothesis I had too. If Young shoots well as a rookie and/or sophomore, he can hike up his trade value to bad teams who are poor at assessing defensive potential. There is something about him that is highly attractive to casual fans (as far as I’m concerned bad GM’s are glorified casuals), and he may have been drafted higher if he didn’t miss workouts due to a car accident.

Huestis seems like a complete zero offensively and I think Presti erred on that one. But he’s toolsy and can play defense, so at least that’s something.

What About Bruno?
I didn’t bother trying to rank Bruno Caboclo because I have no idea, but you may note that I gave Toronto an above average ranking in my post draft prediction. That is in spite of pick #37 being a throwaway in DeAndre Daniels, which I docked the Raptors for. This is because I think Masai Ujiri is a good GM, and when he drafts an 18 year old 6’9″ guy with a 7’7″ wingspan who can apparently shoot at #20 overall, I am not going to tell him he is wrong.

It doesn’t seem possible that somebody with that physical profile who can shoot somehow entered the draft and was completely glossed over by everybody.  This is especially true for an age where the Internet and social media spread information like wild fire. But it happened, and I don’t feel overwhelmingly compelled to knock the pick due to the ignorance of almost everybody.

To offer some perspective: Zach LaVine went 13th overall because he can shoot and he can jump through the roof. The only evidence that he can do anything else comes from people who watched him in high school, even though the people who watched him in high school also graded him as not a top 50 player in the class.

Bruno’s tools are straight up better. I don’t even know how athletic he is and I don’t care. Zach LaVine is a leaper in Nik Stauskas’s body minus 25 pounds. His athleticism will aid his rim finishing and transition play, but he’s likely poor defensive player anyway and his athleticism isn’t going to help him get off a huge volume of 3’s (he attempted just 5.7 per 40 at UCLA).  The reason why Durant is so elite is because being 6’10” with a 7’5″ wingspan enables him to get off his elite shot from any spot on the court, and he’s roughly unstoppable once he catches the ball. This is similar to why Dirk is so dominant. The combination of a great reach and great shot has unique synergy to create a special player.

Of course Durant is great for reasons other than just length and shooting, but the good news is that Bruno can be vastly inferior to Durant at a number of things and still be great value at #20 overall. LaVine’s physical tools aren’t special at all but Bruno’s are. It’s rich to me that Chad Ford gave Toronto a D for taking Bruno 20th overall for being raw after a full season of slurping LaVine as a lottery pick and giving Minnesota a B+ for taking him 13th.

For all I know Caboclo is a complete scrub, but his based on the tiny bits of info we have and Ujiri’s history of making smart moves, there is no way I am ever criticizing this type of gamble at 20th overall. The draft is all about upside, and if Ujiri thinks Caboclo has it then I agree with him.

Self-Critique

27 Friday Jun 2014

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Now that the draft has happened I have new info!  I know how various front offices of varying sharpness chose to expend their picks, and I’m going to critique my big board rankings based on the outcome and my sharpness predictions.

Internationals
Let’s start with internationals.  By looking at statistical projections and cross referencing them with scouting reports, I tried to make my best thin slice assessment of the international class.  I decided that the class was largely underrated due to the strong statistical profiles, and rank the internationals rather aggressively.

I pegged Dante Exum, Jusuf Nurkic, Clint Capela, Damien Inglis, Nikola Jokic, and Vasilije Micic as underrated.  All of them slid considerably lower than my big board ranking, and the quality of FO who took them was pretty much random based on my pre-draft ranking.  Micic and Capela were taken by top 3 FO’s, Nurkic and Jokic were taken by my 9th worst FO, Exum was taken the slightly above average Jazz (11th) and Inglis was taken by the slightly below average Bucks (17th).  So the quality of team that took stabs on these guys was close to random, and all of them went right about where they were slotted to go in mocks.

To make matters worse, I had Dario Saric as the lone overrated international and he was taken by my #2 GM Sam Hinkie 12th overall when I had him 23rd on my big board. My #1 FO the Spurs took Nemanja Dangubic who I didn’t bother with because his stats are so bad in the late 2nd.  My #3 FO (Houston) took Alessandro Gentile who I barely bothered with because his stats are mediocre.  Bogdan Bogdanovic who I was neutral on was taken by my #8 FO with both Inglis and Jokic on the board. And my #7 FO Toronto took Bruno Caboclo who I did not realize existed, although based on limited information seems like my type of gamble. Artem Klimenko who seemed like an OK gamble went undrafted, and Walter Tavares was taken by my #6 FO 43rd overall, which I deem to be good value.

So overall there were a lot of teams that I rated highly dipping their fingers in the international pie, but they were looking at the guys that I had not pegged as sleepers as opposed to the ones I did.  I still think this is a good class, and I still think that internationals were underdrafted.  But for better or worse I feel like I was far too aggressive in ranking international players that I never actually scouted myself or analyzed in any sort of meaningful way.

The bottom line is that the international players were a part of the draft, and I had to do my best to interpolate them with the NCAA class in spite of my lack of familiarity.  I went out on a limb trusting statistical indicators, and the early returns are that smart teams don’t completely agree with me.  I’m still happy with the draft outcome if I’m a Nuggets fan, and I do believe that it’s insane how far Clint Capela slid. But I am nevertheless feeling highly unconfident in my international hypotheses, even though I don’t think the logic that went into them was bad or anything. I was just working with a super thin slice and perhaps should have proceeded with more caution in my final ranking.

NCAA

I signed up for this to evaluate NCAA prospects, so this is where I expect to knock most of the stuff out of the park.  First let’s start with my players I had earmarked as overrated:

My rank Actual slot Team rank
Andrew Wiggins 7 1 25
Jabari Parker 8 2 17
Julius Randle 22 7 24
Doug McDermott 34 11 18
Zach LaVine 35 13 29
Rodney Hood 57 23 11
Cleanthony Early 73 34 28
CJ Wilcox 74 28 21
Jahii Carson 100 undrafted N/A

These are the 9 players whose hype I flatly disagreed with and wrote about in a decidedly one way tone for all or most of the season (with Jabari as the exception as I didn’t cool too much until the home stretch).  None of them were drafted by a top 10 team, 8/9 were drafted by a below average team, and 6/9 were drafted by bottom 10 teams in my draft rankings or not at all.  Honestly I can’t outright brag that I knocked all of these out of the park: for all I know Philly would have taken Wiggins over Embiid if they had the chance and I got lucky that they ended up with the #3 pick instead of #1. And I assume at least one or two of these guys will become quite a bit better than I expect and make me look semi-bad.  But I feel good about my hypotheses on all of these players, and based on the teams that pulled the trigger I have no reason to alter my opinions of any of them.

Now let’s look at the guys I ear-marked as underrated:

My rank Actual slot Team rank
Joel Embiid 1 3 2
Dante Exum 2 5 11
Marcus Smart 3 6 4
Aaron Gordon 4 4 15
Tyler Ennis 9 18 8
KJ McDaniels 13 32 2
Kyle Anderson 15 30 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 17 38 10
Jarnell Stokes 18 35 13
Jordan Adams 19 22 13
Semaj Christon 32 55 5

Once again, all above average teams picked these guys up. And the 4 guys I pegged as possible superstars all went in a row after the bad teams cleaned Parker and Wiggins off the board.

In fairness, I might have overrated Javon McCrea and Kendrick Perry who I tabbed as late 1st rounders based on statistics when they went undrafted. Isaiah Sykes went undrafted too, although he will be playing summer league for Philly which pleases me.  And I could also claim small credit for Nick Johnson who I ranked ahead 42nd (54th DX, 60th ESPN) who was scooped by Morey.

Of course I wasn’t perfect with my NCAA stuff, as a few smart teams believe I underrated some players:

My rank Actual slot Team rank
TJ Warren 28 14 8
Adreian Payne 33 15 6
James Young 27 17 4
Josh Huestis 100 29 5

So I may have underrated these guys a bit. I also may have underrated them a lot.  In my defense the top 3 guys were players who I agonized over quite a bit and never felt comfortable placing.  TJ Warren I barely scouted and honestly I had no idea where to place. I probably erred too heavily on the side of negativity with respect to his consensus ranking since I don’t believe he necessarily has a fatal flaw and he likely has his own form of upside by being so funky.

Payne was a headache for me to solve as I just couldn’t get the draft models hatred of him out of my mind. I think his passing and age are probably a bigger deal than draft narratives suggest, but I can easily see him becoming a solid role player.  If Ferry likes him, I was probably a bit too bearish in my final ranking. I had him as the #18 prospect on my first big board before I knew statistical models were a thing.

James Young was actually a player who I felt carried some subtle edges, and I quite like him as a personality and I am excited to root for him.  I just don’t get the sense it’s a priority for him to become good on defense, but that’s not a hypothesis that I insist carries a ton of weight in his draft stock.  The funny thing is that I almost posted “if I’m badly underrating one prospect, I hope it’s James Young.”  Since I’m a Celtics fan that is now super true.

Huestis I hadn’t even considered as a legit prospect because his stats were just so bad for his age.  But if Presti likes his defense enough to take him in round 1, that’s enough for me to skyrocket him up my big board. I still think his offense is so limited that it may have been a mistake anyway, but I legitimately invested about 2 seconds of thought in Huestis’s draft stock so why would I get his ranking right?

I mentioned in the prelude to my mega board that I inevitably incorrectly processed some information, and I would much rather it be on these types who I was torn both ways on than the guys I was selling as definitively overrated prospects.  I’m probably going to humblify my big board at some point in light of actual outcome, and these guys and Saric are all getting moved up the most.

Conclusions

I feel like there were plenty of weaknesses in my analysis.  My hyper extrapolation of internationals may have been a fool’s errand.  I don’t regret trying, and I’m still interested to see how my rankings actually look when all is said and done.  But without my actual scouting the rankings are obviously worth far less.

As for everything else, I think my rankings from 12 and onward are going to be shaky. The NCAA talent curve became somewhat flat outside of the top 10, and even though I feel somewhat validated that GM’s I like took my sleepers, players like McDaniels, Dinwiddie, Stokes, etc don’t have crazy high upside that make it a big time mistake to take the players I liked less over them.

I would say I probably veered too far from consensus and perhaps suffered from information overload with all of the statistical modeling that I referenced. I’m OK with that, I need to overdose on information before I learn how to interpret it with maximum efficiency.

In summation: I’d say I took some risks that will eventually enhance my perception, but probably made the overall quality of my mega board weaker.  I’m most happy that the bold stances I took for/against NCAA prospects strongly aligned with the quality of team that drafted them, as I believe that is a strong early check mark in favor of the meat of my analysis.  Unfortunately my lower confidence rankings that I went overboard on are going to be judged just the same, so my mega board overall likely lacks the edge over DX/ESPN/actual outcome that I was hoping for.  That’s OK, I may fail to meet the technical definition of my goals, but I feel like I refined my process quite well overall and it will be even better next year.

The NBA Draft: Where Bruno Caboclo Happens

27 Friday Jun 2014

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Well that was interesting. I feel like some of my more confident reads I had went as expected, some of my fuzzy reads were completely off the mark, and overall I think last night reinforced how deeply subjective the draft can be.

I think grading the draft is completely silly, and it’s hilarious for me to read this morning that Chad Ford gave the Rockets a C-. Yeah Chad, you definitely have a world of insight that Daryl Morey lacks, so you tell him how badly he screwed up! In fairness to Ford he’s required to do this as part of his job and he needs to stand by his rankings, but it’s just silly. Personally I accept my lack of expertise, so for me this is a two way street. For every pick I have opinions on how they may be questioned as well how they may call my rankings into question.  I’m going to go down my ranking predicting sharpest to least sharp to share my thoughts on the draft:

1. San Antonio Spurs
30. Kyle Anderson
Well, this makes sense.  The team that values ball movement takes an awesome passer who grades well analytically. I imagine Anderson is going to play a similar role to Boris Diaw, and I love this for his odds to succeed as a pro.

2. Philadelphia 76ers
3. Joel Embiid
12. Dario Saric
32. KJ McDaniels39. Jerami Grant
52. Vasilije Micic
54. Nemanja Dangubic
58. Jordan McRae

This was the draft I was most looking forward to as I couldn’t wait to compare notes with Hinkie and his copious picks.  He delivered in both directions, as three of his picks were comfortably the best player available on my board (Embiid, McDaniels, Micic) and the rest were varying levels of surprises to me.

I ranked Dario Saric 23rd on my big board, Hinkie took him 12th. If I do a post draft big board, I’m skyrocketing Saric up my board.  Frankly I never even watched him and never felt exceptionally confident in my ranking of him.  He didn’t sound too attractive based on stats and his physical profile, but maybe if I watched film I’d feel differently.  I can see how his virtuoso passing ability is not fully captured by stats, and how he may translate well to a less ball dominant role.  It should be noted there wasn’t a clear value and fit for Philly in this slot: my top players were centers blocked by Embiid/Noel and PG’s blocked by MCW, and then my next best players were Inglis and KJ McDaniels who he got in round 2 anyway.  There really wasn’t an obvious slam dunk and Hinkie may have decided to err on the side of a player he can stash and use as a trade asset down the line.  I’m definitely elevating my perception of Saric regardless though, ranking him 23rd was NOT a high confidence ranking.

Jerami Grant I ranked 38th on my final big board and he went 39th.  He’s such a weird player I never really knew where to rank him.  Ultimately I decided to just fade his skill level and stick him 38th, but his tools are great, he allegedly has defended well man to man in the past, and his stats aren’t bad.  I’m sure Hinkie invested quite a bit more thought into Grant than I have and it’s almost certainly better value than my board would indicate, even though I think his lack of skill level remains a big concern.

Dangubic and McRae are interested as late round fliers, because they are Hinkie going completely against the stats.  I can see how McRae is underrated– he had a poor steal rate which vastly understates the role he played in Tennessee’s defense that was top 20 in spite of having no rim protecting bigs.  I should have had him somewhere higher on my board.  Dangubic is an international who has poor stats, but they rolled the dice anyway. These picks could have been Hinkie throwing his scouts a bone, but he may genuinely like them too. If nothing else I now know he’s willing to defy stat models late in round 2.

3. Houston Rockets
25. Clint Capela
42. Nick Johnson
I absolutely love Morey’s draft.  I had Capela ranked 6th on my big board, which is a rather bold shot in the dark I was starting to doubt when smart GM’s kept passing on him.  But Morey being the one to pull the trigger when Capela can’t play with Dwight Howard pleases me. I maybe shouldn’t have been so bold as to rank Capela ahead of Parker and Wiggins, but he’s in a mold where it’s so so easy to become valuable he’s a top 10 prospect to me in this draft no matter what.

In round 2 Morey took my 42nd prospect at 42nd overall, and I love the pick. Johnson is a great fit next to James Harden, as Harden can run the offense from SG and Johnson gives them another Beverley-esque 3 + D type.  I definitely liked Johnson more than my 42nd ranking would indicate, so I think this illuminates that I probably didn’t even succeed at ranking the non-lotto prospects in an order that my intuition agrees with.

4. Boston Celtics
6. Marcus Smart
17. James Young

To me Marcus Smart was the only defensible choice at 6th overall, and Ainge smashed that one.  That’s 3 years in a row that the Celtics have taken my top choice with their top pick (Smart, Olynyk, Sullinger).

James Young feels like a Fab Melo-ish follow up to the Sullinger pick, but not quite as bad. I hate that the Celtics passed up Capela at 17, but Ainge tends to not go international in drafts so I can’t say I’m surprised. Based on NCAA players that fit, I would have taken KJ McDaniels but I feel that taking Young ahead of him is somewhat defensible. I have noted multiple times that I think there are hidden edges in Young: I think he’s going to become a better shooter than his stats indicated and he was the UK player who lit up tough defenses.  I ranked him low because I feel like he’s going to be a one way player, and I think Ainge is making a statement that he thinks Young can play both ways. I think Young has a chance to become average or better defensively, and playing for Brad Stevens definitely helps his odds. I still feel like this pick isn’t great value, but Ainge liking Young makes me like him a bit more.

5. Oklahoma City
21. Mitch McGary
29. Josh Huestis

I like the McGary pick.  I only ranked him 25th on my big board which has him as a slight reach, but he was a prospect I could have easily been coerced into ranking higher.  So this is probably fail to properly rank my intuition again.

The Huestis pick is a surprise to me. I stashed him in the 81-100 range but honestly gave zero thought to him because he’s old and appears to be a zero offensively. But he’s toolsy and apparently great defensively, and it sounds like he did well at Portsmouth.  I’m skyrocketing Huestis up my board if Presti likes him in round 1, but I still feel like he’s so limited offensively for a wing that this is a questionable pick.

6. Atlanta
15. Adreian Payne
43. Walter Tavares
48. Lamar Patterson

I had Payne 18th on my first big board and closed with him 33rd on my big board. The fact that Danny Ferry likes him 15th overall makes me feel like I may have been closer on my first try and moved away from the truth due to information overload.  Payne was definitely one of the toughest players for me to rank.  I have a hard time bashing investments in tall guys who can shoot, especially since Payne has the tools to be decent defensively. But I still think the value is questionable nevertheless– if nothing else Atlanta seems to be capping their upside here.  I’m interested to see how Payne pans out.

Tavares is just a good pick in the mid-2nd.  Patterson is a bit surprising, he doesn’t seem to have the physical tools to guard SG’s but he does have a bit of shake and a nice offensive skill level.  I ranked him 54th so this is roughly neutral value to me, and I could see how I underrated LPatt.  Of course it’s also possible that the Hawks are underrating the predictive power of age with these picks.

7. Toronto
20. Bruno Caboclo
37. DeAndre Daniels

The NBA Draft: where Bruno Caboclo happens.  I didn’t bother to try to rank him because I could find zero information on him. I think it’s pretty crazy that Ujiri thought Caboclo is so so good that he couldn’t risk having him sniped before round 2. If he’s 6’9″ with a 7’7″ wingspan, athletic, and can shoot at the age of 18 then I suppose I see his point.  I’m not going to question Masai until I see Bruno play because it doesn’t sound like somebody who has a limit to his ceiling. I just don’t understand how he went so undetected in spite of being such a freak AND being able to shoot. My mind is forever blown by this pick.

The DeAndre Daniels pick is a shock to me. I ranked him 70th on my big board because he never passes, and unless you’re a rim protecting center this is a big turn off to me. He’s also 22 and didn’t quite shine enough to feel like he has upside in spite of his lack of passing. I’m a bit less bearish on him if Masai likes him, but I can’t help but feel he could have done better.

8. Phoenix
14. TJ Warren
18. Tyler Ennis
27. Bogdan Bogdanovic
50. Alec Brown

The jury is still out on Ryan McDonough as a drafter, and I feel mixed about these picks.  The TJ Warren pick feels meh to me but again I may have underrated him at 28th overall.  He’s just a completely bizarre prospect and I put all of 5 minutes into solving his draft ranking, so why should I be confident.  I obviously love the Ennis pick, especially if they now package one of Dragic or Bledsoe for Love.  Bogdan Bogdanovic’s big statistical weakness is 2p%, and if Jeff Hornacek can get him a higher quality of shots that’s a pick that can pan out. I had him as a slight reach but I love the fit with Hornacek (although Inglis or Jokic would have been cooler).  And Alec Brown is an investment in a tall shooter at a low price, so can’t complain there.  Overall I feel like Phoenix had a solid draft, but they didn’t quite inspire confidence that McDonough is en route to becoming a top top drafting GM.

10. Detroit
38. Spencer Dinwiddie
Stan Van Gundy is a smart coach and he took a smart player who I have as great value.  Love this pick, I think Dinwiddie is going to carve himself out a career as a useful role player for SVG.

11. Utah
5. Dante Exum
23. Rodney Hood
When you get Dante Exum 5th overall, it hardly matters who you take 23rd. I’m exuberant if I’m a Jazz fan.  But I’m pretty disappointed in Utah for taking Hood 23rd overall. I never even understood his draft hype. I’m guessing it’s great offensive skill set for a role player, and the tools to be alright defensively which is attainable since he has good intangibles? I don’t know. He doesn’t have crazy offensive upside and I think he’s clueless and hopeless defensively. Hood may do enough offensively to make this pick look alright, but I’m not compromising on this one: he’s going to be bad defensively and he’s not going to be a star offensively and there is no way he belongs in round 1.

13. Memphis
22. Jordan Adams
35. Jarnell Stokes

I may have underestimated Memphis ranking them just 13th, as John Hollinger seems to have them on the analytics wagon. I would have taken Kyle Anderson before Jordan Adams, but this was still a good spot to gamble on Adams anyway.  I completely love the Stokes pick and think that he’s going to carve out a solid career in the league as a role player.

15. Orlando
4. Aaron Gordon
10. Elfrid Payton
56. Roy Devyn Marble

I was a bit surprised to see the Magic take Gordon over Smart and Exum, but it all made sense when they snagged Payton at 10th overall. I don’t love Hennigan moving up for Payton since Ennis would have been a perfectly fine fall back plan (and probably a better fit since Oladipo + Gordon give them a great baseline of perimeter defense), but it’s clear that he has a plan and it’s to invest in defense. You can do quite a bit worse than that plan. They will likely need to add shooting down the road, but I like loading up with great defensive perimeter players and dealing with the rest later. Devyn Marble was a good late flier too, I like this draft for Orlando.

17. Milwaukee
2. Jabari Parker
31. Damien Inglis
36. Johnny O’Bryant

Well the Bucks lived up to their middle of the road ranking by making two picks I hate and one pick I love. I get why they made the Jabari pick but I really feel like he’s Glenn Robinson all over again for the Bucks.  They then redeemed themselves by picking Inglis who I love, and then closed on a meh note with Johnny O’Bryant.  Johnny O is somebody who I possibly underrate because he has a lot of fat to his offensive game that can be trimmed, but I’m just not sure what the selling point for him going early round 2 is.

18. Chicago Bulls
11. Doug McDermott
49. Cameron Bairstow

The Bulls lost their minds and I may have overrated them at #18 on my draft predictions. Flipping picks 16 + 19 for McDermott is a classic case of overrating fit/need, as the Bulls badly need shooting + scoring and got the highest rated shooter and scorer at whatever cost it took. The trouble is that in the process they completely disregarded EV, and missed out on players who may have been able to make a bigger impact for them. One could argue that McDermott’s defense can be hidden in Chicago, but at the same time he’s not going to be a panacea for their offense. This deal may not look terrible in retrospect if McDermott can develop into as good of a pro as JJ Redick did, but to me the upside is just not there and there is quite a bit of risk. If I’m a Bulls fan I’m sorely disappointed with their draft.

19. Miami
24. Shabazz Napier

They took the guy that LeBron wanted. Napier makes sense for them because he can space the floor and pairs well with LeBron, and they need to optimize for the scenario where LeBron stays as opposed to finding their next franchise cornerstone. Everything hinges on LeBron, and I don’t think the Napier pick is bad at all bearing that in mind.

21. LA Clippers
28. CJ Wilcox

I ranked the Clippers as a bottom 10 drafting team due to a lack of faith in Doc Rivers the GM, and he validated my ranking by spewing big time on Wilcox. He already took a jump shooter in the late 1st last year who failed to translate as a rookie (Reggie Bullock), and Wilcox is a much less attractive overall prospect. I assume this is a win now move, although I am skeptical of Wilcox’s ability to aid a team in winning ever. At least the Clippers still have CP3 and Blake I suppose.

22. Denver Nuggets
16. Jusuf Nurkic
19. Gary Harris
41. Nikola Jokic

The Nuggets were a team I was unsure of where to rank, and they came out and massively overperformed my expectation. Converting the 11th pick into Nurkic and Harris is amazing since I would have been fond of just keeping the pick and using it on Nurk. I’m lukewarm on Harris but he’s fine at 19th overall when that pick was basically a freeroll anyway.  And there’s no way that Jokic is a bad gamble in round 2. I’m thrilled as a Nuggets fan, and while I’m not suddenly convinced that the Nuggets are super pro at drafting I am going to have higher expectations for them next year.

23. Sacramento
8. Nik Stauskas

This is what their crowd sourcing came up with.  I suppose it could have been worse. I have Stauskas as a slight reach, but I like him and wouldn’t be surprised if he provides a happy return on the pick. Of course he could also be the next Jimmer Fredette. He’s another guy I like but struggle to pinpoint, but I am rooting for him nevertheless.

24. LA Lakers
7. Julius Randle
46. Jordan Clarkson

I expected the Lakers to be bad, and they reached for one of my least favorite prospects in the draft. No need to question my opinion of Randle for this– I watched him religiously, I stand by everything I have said, and I laugh at the Lakers for taking him 7th overall. Vonleh would have been a much better pick.

Clarkson is fine 46th overall.  Doesn’t really move the needle either way for me.

25. Cleveland
1. Andrew Wiggins
33. Joe Harris

I dislike both of these picks for Cleveland. In fairness I think at least taking Wiggins over Parker was the right move, but I would have taken Embiid or traded down.

Joe Harris is somebody whose appeal I don’t really get. I think I may have underrated him leaving him out of my top 80. If he can play defense then he might have a career in the NBA. But he doesn’t seem to have all that much upside so I think he was definitely a reach early in round 2.

26. New Orleans
47. Russ Smith

I like Russdiculous, and I like him at 47th overall, but I don’t think it was a great idea to trade Pierre Jackson for him.  New Orleans should maybe take Hinkie off of their speed dial.

27. Charlotte
9. Noah Vonleh
26. PJ Hairston
45. Dwight Powell
55. Semaj Christon

I’m fairly accustomed to laughing at the Hornets after the draft, but things might be changing in their front office. I actually like all 4 of their picks. Vonleh I’m not high on but was likely the correct pick at 9th overall.  Hairston, Powell, and Christon were all good values at their respective slots and players I generally like. I probably slightly overrated Christon on my final big board at 32nd, but still this draft inspires a ton of optimism for me if I am a Hornets fan.

28. New York
34. Cleanthony Early
51. Thanasis Antetokounmpo
57. Louis Labyrie

I expected Phil Jackson to be bad, and he delivered taking one of the players who I feel is completely overrated in Early. Antetokounmpo pick is fine and I don’t know anything about Labyrie.  But he lost the draft by wasting the best asset in the Tyson Chandler trade on somebody who has exceptionally low upside.

29. Minnesota Timberwolves
13. Zach LaVine
40. Glenn Robinson
53. Alessandro Gentile

I rated Minnesota fairly low as I assume Flip Saunders has no idea what he’s doing, and like Phil Jackson he delivered in a big way. Zach LaVine at #13 overall very well may be the worst pick of the draft. Flip did partially redeem himself with GR3 in round 2 and the Gentile pick is possibly OK too.  But he blew their one good asset, and that’s why Love is leaving and it’s why Minnesota deserves it.

30. Brooklyn Nets
44. Markel Brown
59. Xavier Thames
60. Cory Jefferson

I have Billy King as the worst GM in the league because everything he ever does exudes a lack of cluefulness.  Unfortunately, he didn’t have a good pick last night (or ever because he traded them all), but we did get to see him select a handful of 2nd rounders.  I had them all as slight reaches, it seems that King just wants to take old guys who might help right away. They won’t help right away and probably not ever.

Mega Board

26 Thursday Jun 2014

Posted by in Big Boards

≈ 23 Comments

After months of agonizing over the most nuanced details of college aged basketball players, it’s time to present my final big board for draft night. This is the first season where I have delved this deeply into information, and I developed my process for evaluating prospects on the fly. Overall I feel good about the process that I developed, and I feel my analysis is likely on the right track for the majority of these players. That said I am sure that I overlooked or incorrectly valued plenty of information, and I imagine that in 5 years I will look back on this and be pained by my lack of foresight for at least a handful of players. I expect to be wrong due to variance, and I expect to be wrong due to the inefficiencies of my analysis. I estimate it will take about 5 years of similar analysis before I attain mastery in draft evaluation, and even then I will still have room to grow.

But the good news is that nobody is perfect at draft analysis, and my only goals this year were to outperform ESPN + DX rankings as well as the actual draft order. I feel like this big board puts me in a strong position to do so, and now all that remains is to sit back and enjoy the ride.

Tier 1: Possible superstars
1. Joel Embiid:  7’0″ C, Kansas, 20.3 years old. DX: 1, ESPN: 4
Embiid has all of the talent and none of the durability. He was in a tier by himself until he became a medical disaster, and now I’m not sure where to put him. I’m going to be optimistic and assume that modern medicine and nutrition is advanced enough to give him the possibility of a normal, healthy career.  I understand that this puts me at big time risk of looking terrible down the road, but I never claimed to be able to predict health. I don’t have access to his medical report, and it’s possible that having access would alter my opinion.  Consider this a shaky #1 ranking based on my strong belief in his talent. The draft is all about binking upside, not avoiding downside.

2. Dante Exum: 6’6″ PG, Australia, 19.0 yrs. DX: 4, ESPN: 3
The best able bodied talent in the draft, the thin slice of Exum is promising. His size, length, speed, and quicks give him uniquely good physical tools for a PG, and he supplements that with awesome court vision and basketball IQ. He still needs to learn to play defense and move off the ball, and there is the risk that the 9 game FIBA sample overstates his talent level. I like rolling the dice on him anyway, his great physical profile with a hint of CP3ish BBIQ gives him special offensive upside.

3. Marcus Smart: 6’3″ PG/SG, Oklahoma State, 20.3 yrs. DX: 5, ESPN: 6
The best intangibles and the best defensive player (with respect to position) in the draft. His offense is a work in progress, and he doesn’t quite share Exum’s upside on that end. Smart still has the potential to be quite good offensively and I was tempted to put him above Exum due to his superior defensive projection, but for guards it seems wise to err on the side of offensive upside and give the edge to Exum.

4. Aaron Gordon: 6’9″ SF, Arizona, 18.8 yrs. DX: 9, ESPN: 7
Gordon is young, toolsy, and good at everything except shooting. Unfortunately he is frighteningly bad at shooting, which is a difficult wart to weigh. Given that his shooting sometimes lends itself to outlier leaps, this feels like the right place to slot him.

Tier 2: Maybe All-Stars, Maybe Not Even Close to All-Stars
5. Jusuf Nurkic: 6’11” C, Bosnia, 19.9 yrs. DX: 6, ESPN: 17
6. Clint Capela: 6’11” C, Switzerland, 20.1 yrs. DX: 11, ESPN: 27
The frustrating part of evaluating this class is that all of my expertise lies in NCAA basketball, and it’s hard to find a place where I’m comfortable ranking all of the compelling internationals. It may be ill advised to place two underhyped internationals above the consensus top 2 picks, but if at least one of them becomes a better pro than both Parker and Wiggins I will consider this ranking a success. If this looks silly later, I will take overseas stats with a bigger grain of salt next time. But bigs with good stats and good tools are good picks, and the gambler in me is more attracted to these two than Parker and Wiggins.

7. Andrew Wiggins: 6’8″ SF, Kansas, 19.4 yrs. DX: 2, ESPN: 1
8. Jabari Parker: 6’8″ PF, Duke, 19.3 yrs. DX: 3, ESPN: 2
The top two contenders for #1 overall are also rife with flaws that sit unwell with me.

Andrew Wiggins’ draft rating is a battle between his uniquely good speed, quicks, and athleticism vs. his lackluster skill level. He was able to perform well in college by burning teams in transition, but draft models still don’t love him and he requires loads of development to become good enough offensively to justify a top 3 draft slot. He still has plenty of potential as a 3 + D role player, however.

Parker posted great scoring and rebounding numbers as a big man for Duke, but that was largely due to bullying undersized bigs. He struggled vs. teams with good interior defense, and had a horrible assist to turnover ratio which bodes ill for his ability to translate to NBA perimeter player. There are also questions about his defense. His stats are good and he has enough skill, but he needs to become less selfish to become an attractive NBA player and I’m not comfortable betting on players to overhaul their nature.

Part of me fears betting against Jabari since he’s such a fierce competitor, but between the two I have to give Wiggins the edge due to superior tools, defense, and a much clearer path to usefulness.

9. Tyler Ennis, 6’2″ PG, Syracuse, 19.9 yrs. DX: 14, ESPN: 16
His game isn’t sexy but it’s effective, and he was at his best vs. good defenses and in clutch situations.  Ennis boasts a stellar assist to turnover ratio and great statistical splits, which dually suggest that he has excellent feel for the game.  There are questions about his ability to play man to man defense, but he offers a unique form of offensive upside.

10. Noah Vonleh: 6’10” PF, Indiana, 18.9 yrs. DX: 10, ESPN: 5
Vonleh is tall and long and he can shoot and rebound.  He’s also exceptionally young, so these qualities add up to a top 10 pick.  His bad hands, poor passing, and mediocre rim finishing cause enough doubt for me to keep him in the back end of the top 10, however.

Tier 3: Good Starter Potential
11. Elfrid Payton: 6’4″ PG, Louisiana Lafayette, 20.4 yrs. DX: 15, ESPN: 12
Payton is tall, long, quick, and uses his tools to hawk the ball defensively. Offensively he crushed the Sun Belt competition in transition, but how will that translate? He has solid floor general skills and slick handles, but he’s a poor shooter and there are questions about his ability to finish in traffic since he’s not an elite athlete.

12. Damien Inglis: 6’8″ SF/PF, France, 19.1 yrs. DX: 26, ESPN: 30
He offers a similar appeal as Wiggins: average stats at a young age, good tools, and good defense.  I get that super athleticism is sexier than having LeBron James’ body with longer arms, but I believe BronBod needs more love.

13. KJ McDaniels: 6’6″ SF, Clemson, 21.4 yrs. DX: 18, ESPN: 24
KJ was a one man wrecking crew on defense for Clemson, as he used his length and explosiveness to rack up an obscene block rate for a SF. He’s a bit small for the position and his offensive skill level isn’t great, but KJ has solid 3 + D  potential nevertheless.

14. Nik Stauskas: 6’6″ SG/SF, Michigan, 20.7 yrs. DX: 12, ESPN: 11
Stauskas can dunk surprisingly well for a white shooter, but his tools still aren’t that good overall and he’s lock bad defensively. But it’s hard to not love his handle, passing, and shooting combination as well as his smarts and presumed work ethic given his improvements last offseason.

15. Kyle Anderson: 6’8″ SF/PF, UCLA, 20.8 yrs. DX: 21, ESPN: 19
The best NCAA passer this past season, his nickname of SloMo accurately describes his mobility, his leaping ability, and his shot release. But stat models love him and he has super long arms to equip him with at least one great physical tool, so I believe he’s a good gamble outside of the lottery.

16. Nikola Jokic: 6’11” C, Serbia, 19.4 yrs. DX: 42, ESPN: 31
His poor athleticism and speed make it fair to take his stats with a grain of salt, but based on his stats he appears to have a shot of becoming the best passing big man of all-time. That gives him a world of intrigue to me on its own.

17. Spencer Dinwiddie: 6’6″ SG, Colorado, 21.2 yrs. DX: 29, ESPN: 40
He’s coming off an ACL tear, but Dinwiddie is custom made to be a 3 + D SG in the NBA. As a bonus he seems to take an interest in analytics.

18. Jarnell Stokes: 6’8″ PF, Tennessee, 20.5 yrs. DX: 25, ESPN: 26
The physically strongest player in the draft, Stokes suffers from being an undersized PF without 3 point range.  But he does enough things well for stat models to like him, and he’s essentially Julius Randle with better defense and less hype.

19. Jordan Adams: 6’5″ SG, UCLA, 20.0 yrs. DX: 27, ESPN: 28
Scouting reports hate him, stats love him.  I feel scouting reports raise a number of valid points, but at a certain point it’s time to gamble on the stats, especially since he was out of shape when he accrued them.

20. PJ Hairston: 6’5″ SG, Texas Legends, 21.5 yrs. DX: 20, ESPN: 18
An endless supply of catch and shoot 3 pointers with the physical tools to not be a sieve defensively.

21. Vasilije Micic: 6’6 PG, Serbia, 20.5 yrs. DX: 36, ESPN: 41
An exceptionally creative passing PG with the height to guard SG’s seems worth comfortably more than an early 2nd rounder.

Tier 4: Everybody Else
22. Julius Randle: 6’9″ PF, Kentucky, 19.6 yrs. DX: 7, ESPN: 8
Randle brings skill, rebounding, strength, and quick feet to the table but shoots himself in the foot with poor length, mediocre athleticism, and poor feel for the game. This causes translation concerns and exceptionally slow defensive rotations.

23. Dario Saric: 6’10 SF/PF, Croatia, 20.2 yrs. DX: 13, ESPN: 9
The one first round international prospect that I’m not lower on than consensus. Waiting 2 years for his services isn’t a big deal, but having less than stellar translated stats with his lackluster physical tools is a big deal. His skill and height may enable him to be a good role player, but I don’t see the star potential.

24. Gary Harris: 6’4″ SG, Michigan State, 19.8 yrs. DX: 16, ESPN: 10
Vanilla 3 + D combo guard who can’t get to the rim and may be too small to guard SG’s.  Stats like him enough to take him in round 1, but he has questionable upside.

25. Mitch McGary: 6’10 C, Michigan, 22.1 yrs. DX: 24, ESPN: 25
Back problems hurt his stock, but stat models tend to like him and his quick feet and high steal rate give him an non-traditional form of defensive appeal.

26. Javon McCrea: 6’8″ PF, Buffalo, 21.7 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: 52
The undersized PF measured to have surprisingly good size at his Clippers workout: 6’8″ height, 7’3″ length, 8’11” reach, 250 pounds.  That is legit PF size, and stat models like him.  McCrea has some Millsap-esque upside.

27. James Young: 6’7 SF, Kentucky, 18.9 yrs. DX: 30, ESPN: 15
He’s young and uses his 7’0″ wingspan to get shots off vs. tough defenses.  He needs to improve his defense and develop his offense quite a bit to become an attractive NBA player.

28. TJ Warren: 6’8″ SF, NC State, 20.8 yrs. DX: 17, ESPN: 20
One of the weirdest prospects in the draft, TJ Warren thrives off of his elite floater. An great 2 point scoring wing that lacks athleticism is an exceptionally uncommon mold. It seems unlikely to amount to much, but the stats are good enough for a late 1st gamble.

29. Kendrick Perry: 6’0″ PG, Youngstown State, 21.5 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: NR
He needs help running the offense from his backcourt mate, but his stats are good and so are his length and athleticism.  One of the more compelling sleepers in the draft, and my top prospect who appears on neither DX nor ESPN’s top 100.

30. Walter Tavares: 7’3″ C, Cape Verde, 22.3 yrs. DX: 33, ESPN: 37
He’s old, he started playing late, and he projects to be a complete zero offensively.  But he’s 7’3″ with a 7’10” wingspan and offers quite a bit of rim protection intrigue.

31. Glenn Robinson: 6’7″ SF, Michigan, 20.5 yrs. DX: 35, ESPN: 33
His appeal is as an athletic 3 + D SF, except neither the 3 nor the D can be taken for granted. But he did finish a scintillating 83% of rim attempts as a sophomore.

32. Semaj Christon: 6’3″ PG, Xavier, 21.7 yrs. DX: 67, ESPN: 44
His offensive skill level leaves plenty to be desired for his age, but his physical tools and defensive potential make him worth a pick in the early 2nd.

33. Adreian Payne: 6’10” PF, Michigan State, 23.4 yrs. DX: 19, ESPN: 22
He offers appeal as a stretch 4 with solid tools, but his poor passing for his age and lack of rim protection may be his undoing.

34. Doug McDermott: 6’8″ SF, Creighton, 22.5 yrs. DX: 8, ESPN: 13
One dimensional scorer with poor physical tools. He’s an elite spot up shooter, but will struggle to fit in defensively and translate his interior scoring. The lottery hype is insane.

35. Zach LaVine: 6’6″ SG, UCLA, 19.3 yrs. DX: 31, ESPN: 14
He has the athleticism to make this ranking look silly down the line, but I’m 90% sure he doesn’t have the skill level to do so. You need to believe that Steve Alford severely held him back to take him in round 1.

36. Bogdan Bogdanovic: 6’6″ SF, Serbia, 21.9 yrs. DX: 34, ESPN: 45
His poor 2p% calls his shot selection into question and hurts his rating in stat models. But he has good tools, good defensive potential, and he impresses in workouts.  Not a bad early round 2 flier.

37. Shabazz Napier: 6’1″ PG, UConn, 23.0 yrs. DX: 32, ESPN: 23
I believe The Real Shabazz has potential to be a perfectly decent role player. But he’s old, tiny, and unathletic at the deepest position in the NBA. Hard to buy the round 1 hype when he has such narrow odds of becoming an above average starter.

38. Jerami Grant: 6’8″ SF/PF, Syracuse, 20.3 yrs. DX: 22, ESPN: 34
I don’t see how he has the skill level to thrive in the NBA, but I’ll pay enough respect to his good physical tools and OK enough stats to rate him as an early 2nd.

39. Artem Klimenko: 7’1″ C, Russia, 20.5 yrs. DX: 37, ESPN: 39
Is not proven against anything remotely resembling serious competition, but he’s tall, long, mobile, and he can make free throws at 74%.  That’s worth a flier once the known talent starts to thin.

40. Russ Smith: 6’0″ PG, Louisville, 23.2 yrs. DX: 28, ESPN: 58
He’s tiny and old but he’s also exceptionally quick with both his feet and his hands. He has also developed his game impressively over the past 2 seasons, and I like him in round 2.

41. Dwight Powell: 6’10” PF, Stanford, 23.0 yrs. DX: 48, ESPN: 64
Powell would really benefit from improving his 3 point shooting, as a stretch 4 with good mobility, athleticism, and passing is a neat piece to pick up in round 2.

42. Nick Johnson: 6’3″ PG/SG, Arizona, 21.5 yrs. DX: 54, ESPN: 60
He’s an underskilled SG in a PG body, but he also is explosively athletic and has good 3 + D potential if you pair him with a bigger PG.

43. Chris Udofia: 6’6″ SF, Denver, 22.0 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: NR
Posted good stats that may have been somewhat inflated by Denver’s system as an undersized center, but his length and athleticism make him an intriguing prospect to convert to SF.

44. Isaiah Sykes: 6’5″ SG/SF, Central Florida, 22.6 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: NR
Brings length, athleticism, rebounding, passing, and ability to get to the rim. Needs to clean up his shot selection and improve his shooting, but he’s my favorite sleeper who is completely off the radar.

45. Scottie Wilbekin: 6’3″ PG, Florida, 21.2 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: 75
A young senior who played a key role in Florida’s #1 ranking and Final 4 run.  He is a jack of all trades, master of none.

46. Sim Bhullar: 7’5″ C, New Mexico State, 21.6 yrs. DX: 73, ESPN: NR
Can the giant find a niche in the NBA if he continues to trim down? Probably not, but in the back end of round 2 it’s worth a gamble that he might.

47. Khem Birch: 6’9″ PF, UNLV, 21.8 yrs. DX: 55, ESPN: 42
Posted good stats for a center in college, only trouble is that he’s an undersized and underskilled PF in the NBA.

48. Okaro White: 6’8″ SF, Florida State, 21.8 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: NR
His physical tools and shooting ability make him an intriguing 3 + D prospect. It’s uncertain if he has the skill level to translate from NCAA PF to NBA SF, but I like him as a completely under the radar flier.

49. Bryce Cotton: 6’1″ PG, Providence, 21.9 yrs. DX: 71, ESPN: 49
He can shoot, he can penetrate, and as a senior he showed he can pass too when he was given the PG reins as a senior. He’s tiny and will struggle to fit in defensively, but his offensive package is not bad.

50. Daniel Miller: 6’11” C, Georgia Tech, 23.0 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: 98
He’s old and he can’t score in the post, but his stats and physical profile suggest that he can become a solid role playing center.

51. Roy Devyn Marble: 6’6″ SG, Iowa, 21.8 yrs. DX: 50, ESPN: 53
He posted solid stats in college, but was the beneficiary of ample steal and transition opportunities at Iowa. He could translate as a role playing SG nevertheless.

52. Jordan Clarkson: 6’5″ SG/PG, Missouri, 22.1 yrs. DX: 47, ESPN: 23
He has decent tools and he can get to the hoop, but overall his stats aren’t too good. He needs to improve his shooting and finishing if he wants to be any better than Austin Rivers.

53. Patric Young: 6’9″ PF, Florida, 22.4 yrs. DX: 40, ESPN: 36
He’s a center in a power forward body, but he’s strong and plays hard and could find a niche off the bench in the NBA.

54. Lamar Patterson: 6’5″ SG, Pittsburgh, 22.9 yrs. DX: 58, ESPN: 50
He’ll have a tough time hanging with NBA SG’s defensively, but he has good skill level and is fairly crafty.

55. Fuquan Edwin: 6’6″ SG, Seton Hall, 22.8 yrs. DX: 69, ESPN: 90
He racked up loads of steals for Seton Hall and showed good defensive potential. He is limited offensively and his 3 point shot is a work in progress, but it has enough hope to offer 3 + D potential.

56. Kendall Williams: 6’4″ PG, New Mexico, 23.0 yrs. DX: 84, ESPN: NR
Good size and acceptable stats for a PG, but was heavily reliant on transition scoring. He may not be able to penetrate through NBA defenses.

57. Rodney Hood: 6’8 SF, Duke, 21.7 yrs. DX: 23, ESPN: 21
One of the absolute worst defensive players in the draft. He can be a solid role player offensively, as he’s a good shooter and passer and makes limited mistakes, but can his offensive goodness outweigh his defensive badness? I doubt it.

58. Ioannis Papapetrou: 6’8″ SF, Greece, 20.3 yrs. DX: 53, ESPN: 89
May not have the physical tools to be able to defend SF’s, but his skill level makes him draftable.

59. Alec Brown: 7’1″ PF/C, Green Bay, 21.9 yrs. DX: 78, ESPN: 88
He’s tall and he can shoot and that’s about it. But that’s such a good tandem of traits that it may be enough to merit a draft selection.

60. Markel Brown: 6’3″ SG, Oklahoma State, 22.4 yrs. DX: 51, ESPN: 61
He can pass, shoot, and jump through the roof. But he’s also undersized and didn’t post the best stats for his age.

61. Thanasis Antetokounmpo: 6’6″ SF, Delaware 87ers, 22.0 yrs. DX: 65, ESPN: 48
His D-League stats don’t inspire a world of confidence for his offensive upside, but his tools and defensive potential create enough intrigue to make him draftable.

62. Cristiano Felicio: 6’9″ PF, Brazil, 22.0 yrs. DX: 43, ESPN: 51
I know nothing about him, but DX and ESPN think he’s toolsy and draftable and frankly I’m running out of better ideas at this point.

63. James Michael McAdoo: 6’9″ PF, North Carolina, 21.5 yrs. DX: 74, ESPN: 63
McAdoo has really fallen off from his lottery hype as a freshman, but his tools are still there and his stats could be worse.

64. Deonte Burton: 6’1″ PG, Nevada, 23.0 yrs. DX: 45, ESPN: 62
He’s old, and based on his stats it may too late for him to capitalize on his great physical tools.

65. TJ Bray: 6’6″ PG/SG, Princeton, 22.0 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: NR
He’s likely too unathletic to translate to the NBA, but his size and stats make him a compelling undrafted free agent.

66. Troy Huff: 6’5″ SG, North Dakota, 22.4 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: NR
His stats grade fairly well, although they are aided by his lofty steal rate from North Dakota’s gambling defense. But he can also rebound and get buckets, and if he improves his shot he could make it in the NBA.

67. Davion Berry: 6’4″ SG, Weber State, 22.7 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: NR
Berry’s quicks and skill level are solid, but his size is limiting.

68. Alessandro Gentile: 6’6″ SG, Italy, 21.6 yrs. DX: 57, ESPN: 57
Gentile has the offensive skill to be draftable, but his lack of athleticism casts doubt on his ability to succeed.

69. Casey Prather: 6’5″ SF, Florida, 23.1 yrs. DX: 83, ESPN: 96
Prather is old and likely can’t shoot well enough to play the perimeter in the NBA, but his tools aren’t bad and he was arguably the best player in the SEC this past season.

70. DeAndre Daniels: 6’8″ SF, UConn, 22.2 yrs. DX: 64, ESPN: 59
He doesn’t have a clear niche defensively, and his non-existent passing may be his undoing. But he’s long and can space and score, and I’m running out of possibly useful players.

71. Aaron Craft: 6’2″ PG, Ohio State, 23.4 yrs. DX: 99, ESPN: 69
His ability to apply pressure defensively is something, but his lack of tools and offensive skill for such an old prospect cast doubt on his ability to cut it in the NBA.

72. Langston Galloway: 6’2″ PG/SG, Saint Joseph’s, 22.6 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: 94
He’s another SG in a PG body, but he can space the floor if you pair him with a big PG. Kevin Pelton’s WARP model is a fan.

73. Cleanthony Early: 6’8″ SF, Wichita State, 23.2 yrs. DX: 39, ESPN: 32
Can’t pass, can’t get to the rim, not great defensively, too small to play PF, old. He can jump and he can shoot, but that’s not enough to justify his fringe 1st round hype.

74. CJ Wilcox: 6’5″ SG, Washington, 23.5 yrs. DX: 38, ESPN: 35
Like Early, he’s an old, one dimensional shooter who can jump a little bit. I suppose scouts like these types more than I do.

75. Juvonte Reddic: 6’9″ PF, VCU, 22.1 yrs. DX: 100, ESPN: 93
Not sure what caused him to fall off a cliff as a senior, but his good junior year stats are enough to keep him on draft radar.

76. Taylor Braun: 6’7″ SF, North Dakota State, 23.1 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: 92
Stat models say he’s not that bad, but he did little to inspire confidence in his ability to translate with two disappointing performances in the NCAA tournament.

77. Trevor Releford: 6’0″ PG, Alabama, 22.5 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: NR
 He’s a 3 + D PG with OK enough stats. Super exciting stuff, right?

78. Cory Jefferson: 6’9″ PF, Baylor, 23.5 yrs. DX: 66, ESPN: 67
Center in a PF body. Likely can’t pass well enough to fit in at PF, but he did show signs of a budding 3 point shot as a senior.

79. Jerrelle Benimon: 6’8″ PF, Towson, 23.1 yrs. DX: NR, ESPN: NR
When he showed up, Towson went from a dumpster fire to a respectable mid-major program. He can rebound, pass, and almost shoot, but his lack of size and athleticism inhibit his draftability.

80. Xavier Thames: 6’3″ PG, San Diego State, 23.4 yrs. DX: 85, ESPN: 77
He was 3rd in the NCAA in win shares behind McDermott and Napier while playing fewer minutes than both. He had a big breakout as a 23 year old senior and offers appeal as a 3 + D PG.

#’s 81-100: Johnny O’Bryant, Billy Baron, Jake Odum, Halil Kanacevic, Jabari Brown, Jahii Carson, De’Mon Brooks, Andre Dawkins, Cameron Bairstow, Joe Harris, Jordan McRae, Melvin Ejim, Josh Huestis, Nemanja Dangubic, Eric Moreland, Richard Solomon, Austin Hollins, James Bell, Dwayne Evans, Sean Kilpatrick

 

Front Office Draft Sharpness Predictions

26 Thursday Jun 2014

Posted by in Uncategorized

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So before the draft happens, I wanted to publish my rankings 1-30 of each front office based on how well I anticipate they will draft. I base this on a number of factors outside of historical draft record, and frankly I’m straight up guessing at a number of junctures here. I’m sure many will have questions and objections, but the main point is that this will be a possibly fun reference to compare notes after the draft and I just want to get this on the record ahead of time.

1. San Antonio
2. Philadelphia
3. Houston
4. Boston
5. Oklahoma City
6. Atlanta
7. Toronto
8. Phoenix
9. Indiana
10. Detroit
11. Utah
12. Portland
13. Memphis
14. Dallas
15. Orlando
16. Washington
17. Milwaukee
18. Chicago
19. Miami
20. Golden State
21. LA Clippers
22. Denver
23. Sacramento
24. LA Lakers
25. Cleveland
26. New Orleans
27. Charlotte
28. New York
29. Minnesota
30. Brooklyn

Parsing Through The NCAA Prospects: Part 4

25 Wednesday Jun 2014

Posted by in NCAA

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Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Commentary on a handful of Round 2 prospects who I skipped in the NCAA parse

Rim creation stats

Zach LaVine
The funny thing about LaVine is that it seems HS scouts rated him accurately as the #52 recruit in his class, and then when he went to college it was decided that he should now be a lotto talent because he can jump through the roof. His steal rate, assist rate, and half-court rim creation stats are all poor and I don’t see a single statistical signal that he has nearly the upside that draft narratives suggest. Further he seems to be a skeptic that 3 > 2, as his favorite move is to catch the ball behind the arc, take a few dribbles, and then launch a long two with his foot on the arc.

He seems to think he has PG skills that he wasn’t permitted to display at UCLA because Kyle Anderson was the primary PG and the coach’s son Bryce Alford was the backup. If he has a world of skill that somehow went completely undetected during his time at UCLA and he also develops well, then maybe he will one day justify the hype. But for now I’m rolling with the more likely conclusion that he’s a leaper who can shoot but lacks the skill and smarts to succeed in the NBA. I think he’s an early 2nd round flier.

Adreian Payne
He seems to be the prototypical stretch 4 from a scouting perspective- he has good height and length for a PF, he makes 3’s, he rebounds, he has the athleticism to finish in the paint, and he seems to have a shot of being competent defensively. This has earned him an invite to the green room and chatter as a fringe lottery pick. But every statistical model I have seen grades him as a mid-late 2nd rounder.

Issue #1 with Payne is that he doesn’t have the steal or block rates to exist as a rim protecting center. Issue #2 is that he has a dreadful assist to turnover rate in spite of being exceptionally old. This doesn’t quite strike me as a death knell, but his horrible passing may completely nullify his ability to fit in offensively as a stretch 4. I still have a bit of skepticism toward his ranking in statistical models, but I see why they would dislike him enough to have a bit more skepticism toward his 1st round ranking. I have him as an early 2nd.

Jerami Grant
I don’t think he should be a 1st rounder. His tools give him upside to be pretty good defensively on the wing once removed from the Syracuse zone, but he simply doesn’t have the skill level to play offensively on the wing in any capacity. He doesn’t even have good skill level for PF, where he is likely too small to play regularly.  I’m not sure how he finds a niche in NBA lineups.

Russ Smith
Russdiculous has made an incredible transformation from his sophomore season when he was an inveterate chucker. Since then he has vastly improved his shooting ability, PG skills, and shot selection to become one of the best players in the NCAA. He is likely too old and small to have much upside, but he makes up for his size with quicks, speed, and quick hands to force a high number of steals in Louisville’s press. He somewhat reminds me of a poor man’s Kyle Lowry. While he almost certainly won’t become nearly as good as Lowry, I believe he’s a solid 2nd round flier.

Nick Johnson
He’s a dreaded SG in a PG body, which is never good for draft stock. Further he doesn’t have an exceptionally high skill level for a 21 year old SG, as both Layne Vashro and Kevin Pelton grade him as a late 2nd rounder based on stats. But I think he has a niche in the NBA anyway as a 3 + D PG. He is an explosive athlete with solid quickness, and he was one of the best defensive guards in the NCAA this past season as he played a key role in Arizona’s super elite defense. There’s such an influx of big PG’s who can cross match with SG’s, I think he’s a good player to target in round 2 if you can pair him with a Michael Carter-Williams or Dante Exum sized PG.

Chris Udofia
A largely unknown prospect who ranks 17th according to VJL’s EWP model. Udofia is an interesting case– like most of the Denver team, he rocked as a junior and then regressed as a senior. Vashro uses a 60/40 weighting, so his junior season plays a big role in his EWP score. Denver runs a unique offense with heavy emphasis on passing and 3 point shooting as they rated top 2 in assists:FGM and top 20 in 3PA:FGA in each of the past two seasons. Defensively they gamble for steals (I don’t know their precise scheme but his steal rate certainly comes with a grain of salt). Both their offensive and defensive 2p% fell off a cliff from 2013 to 2014, as they dropped from the 53rd kenpom team to 143rd in spite of retaining much of their rotation. I don’t know the precise cause, but suffice it to say that Denver is not a run of the mill mid-major team. Further, Udofia played as an undersized 6’6″ center, so there were a number of factors aligning in his favor to post statistics that overstate his talent level.

That said, I’m not completely writing him off. He has a 7’2″ wingspan and appears to be quite explosive based on his block rate and dunk reel. He posted an excellent assist rate playing in Denver’s ball movement offense, which inspires hope for his ability to convert to NBA SF. His shot is a flaw as he only made 29% 3’s and 65% FT’s for his college career, but if he can make a late leap in his shooting ability he may be a round 2 steal.

Dwight Powell
Powell is old and lacks length, athleticism, and consistent 3 point shooting.  All of these things make him not really worth a 1st round selection, as it stacks the odds of him becoming a good NBA player against him.  But he’s a good passer for a big man and is fairly athletic and mobile.  His shot isn’t completely broken, so if he can develop into a capable NBA floor spacer then you have an interesting stretch 4.  I like him as a 2nd round flier.

Scottie Wilbekin
It’s a bit surprising that he isn’t generating any buzz as a 2nd round draft pick.  He was perceived as the leader of the #1 overall seed in the tournament and played quite well en route to the Final Four.  Granted he struggled badly in an upset loss to UConn, tallying just 4 points 1 assist and 3 turnovers.  But based on his college reputation you’d expect him to rank higher than 74th on Chad Ford’s big board, and he’s not even in DX’s top 100, as he’s only their 50th best senior.  I imagine the issue is his lack of length (6’3.25″) and bulk (168 lbs), but those critiques also apply to Shabazz Napier and Wilbekin is 1.75 inches taller and more athletic.  He’s young for his class and does a little bit of everything.  Layne Vashro rates him as the #35 NCAA prospect and Kevin Pelton rates him as the #27 overall prospect.  Given that he was a good defensive player at the NCAA level, I would say that’s enough to make him worth a 2nd round flier.

Khem Birch
It seems stat models have Birch pegged as a second round sleeper, but I don’t share their enthusiasm. He is underskilled for a center, as his offensive repertoire is limited to offensive rebounds and dunks. He can’t pass and he can’t create his own shot at the rim. His 69.3% FT as a junior gives some hope for his shot which is instantly crushed by him shooting 20/75 (26.7%) from mid-range.

To make matters worse, he is undersized for a PF at 6’9.25″ with a 7’1″ wingspan while weighing a paltry 209 pounds. Not only does his size cast doubt on his ability to translate his gaudy block rate to the NBA, but how in the world is he ever going to have enough skill to fit in offensively at PF? He is far too small to play center full time.

Birch strikes me as a cut and dry case of somebody who is built to dominate NCAA and then not translate to the NBA due to his lack of size. You can give his stats enough regard to take him somewhere in round 2, but he’s a run of the mill flier as opposed to a compelling sleeper in my book.

Rodney Hood
I took a cautious approach to writing about Hood earlier in the season. After a full season of observation, there is no need for caution. The guy has mediocre tools and is a complete trainwreck defensively. He had poor steal and block rates, and he was regularly faked out and blown by. He was likely the worst defensive player on Coach K’s worst defensive team that I can remember. Offensively he’s a good shooter and has solid feel for the game as he passes well for a SF. That’s not nearly enough for a 21 y/o with lackluster tools who is lock bad on defense, at best he’s worth a late 2nd round flier.

Cleanthony Early
I honestly can’t fathom how he turns out to be useful as a pro. In spite of being 23 he’s a horrible passer and couldn’t even create shots at the rim playing in the Missouri Valley Conference. He doesn’t have a good steal rate, he doesn’t eye test well defensively, and he’s obviously too small to play PF full time.  He can shoot and he can jump but at age 23 you need more going for you than that to succeed in the NBA. I don’t see how he’s draftable. He is extremely fortunate that he had the game of his life when everybody was watching vs. Kentucky to generate all of his draft hype.

Sim Bhullar
Nobody wants to talk about the New Mexico State giant, but I do.  He’s probably a stiff, but I think people are too quick to assume that he can’t be useful.  The man is 7’5, he doesn’t need to have a world of talent to become a useful rotation player.  He weighs 360 pounds and there is clearly quite a bit of room to improve his physical profile.  Why not take a flier in the back end of round 2, try to get him on a dietary program to see if he can trim down, and then see what happens?  He claims he has lost 17 pounds in the past month which isn’t a bad start.

Also I am not totally convinced that he’s a stiff.  I watched about one half of New Mexico State basketball in the NCAA tournament vs. San Diego State, and I was surprised to see Bhullar make a graceful catch and finish on a long outlet pass in transition.  Layne Vashro’s EWP stat model rates him as a late 1st rounder, although it’s possible that the Bhullar ranking is broken by his outlier height as EWP also rated Shawn Bradley as a historically great prospect.  There’s nevertheless enough to like here such that I’m at least intrigued to see if he can become something if he trims down.

Parsing Through The NCAA Prospects: Part 3

25 Wednesday Jun 2014

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Part 1

Part 2

Rim creation stats that help fuel my skepticism toward a handful of prospects in this post

PJ Hairston
Hairston is a bit of an enigma statistically, as Kevin Pelton’s WARP formula rates him as the #7 NCAA prospect where’s Layne Vashro’s EWP model rates him as a 2nd rounder.  The fact of the matter is that he posted impressive box score stats as a sophomore at UNC, but the EWP model has doubts about his ability to translate based on his reliance on jump shooting.  I think both sides of the equation have merit.

Hairston only made 34.9% of college 3’s (possibly due to poor variance as a freshman), so for a player who doesn’t offer much in the way of handling, athleticism, speed, or passing, it’s kind of frightening how jumper dependent he is.  But he shot 80% on FT’s in college (87% in the D-League) and made 35.8% of 3’s in the D-League (41.8% on 1+ days’ rest- Hairston badly struggled with back to backs).  Overall I feel signs point toward his shot being rather good if not elite.  What gives him appeal is the volume of 3 pointers that he got off due to his quick trigger and deep range.  Hairston attempted 11.3 3’s per 40 minutes, which is better than any recent 1st rounders outside of Steph Curry who attempted around 12 3PA per 40 as a sophomore and junior.  Troy Daniels attempted 12.3 3PA/40 at VCU and he literally offers zero value other than shooting.  Seeing that Morey liked Daniels enough to add him to the playoff roster and allow McHale to play him, I feel compelled to give some extra attention to outlier 3PA rates.

Outside of shooting, Hairston doesn’t have any stand out strengths, but he does do enough to add some balance to his game.  He’s a good offensive rebounder, and he had a good assist:TOV ratio (1.18) as a UNC sophomore even though his assist rate cratered in the D-League.  He has good size, length, and strength for a SG as well as passable quicks and athleticism.  He also posted a good 3.0% steal rate, which implies that he has the instincts to be above average as a defensive wing.  In watching him I’m not sure his focus and awareness are quite enough to make him a stopper, and he likely is an underdog to become above average.  But the possibility is there nevertheless to give him appeal as a 3 + D prospect.

In short PJ Hairston is Troy Daniels with superior physical tools, rim finishing, passing, rebounding, and defensive potential.  If Morey was enamored enough with Daniels to let him anywhere near the playoff rotation as a rookie, it’s worth wondering how he feels about Hairston who can get off a ton of 3’s without being complete deadweight otherwise.  Not that Morey is the best drafter in the world, as he did take Marcus Morris over Kawhi Leonard 14th overall as recently as 3 years ago.  But I nevertheless like Hairston anywhere in the 20’s.

Gary Harris
Harris is an incredibly bland prospect, and I’m not sure why he’s still getting hyped as a lottery pick after his measurements.  His 8’0″ standing reach is appalling, although in his defense Vashro has informed me that height and length in tandem are more predictive than reach.  His 6’4.5″ height with a 6’6.75″ wingspan makes him seem a bit more hopeful, but without plus athleticism or quicks it’s hard to see him translating his good college defense into good defense of NBA SG’s.  He has good strength but when all of his other tools are below average, it’s hard to see him thriving.  Further he badly struggled to get to the rim in the half-court, and doesn’t nearly have the floor general skills to run an NBA offense.

So he’s basically a 3 + D combo guard with mediocre tools, and he obviously lacks the skill to run an offense.  I could see him finding a niche as a Mario Chalmers type who plays with bigger wings who have the skill to run the offense, which is a perfectly useful player.  It’s just not a level of upside that justifies a top 20 pick.

James Young
I want to like James Young.  He was the one Kentucky player who could score against lengthy, athletic defenses and he somehow showed up to a playoff game with Rihanna.  But I have a hard time getting too optimistic.  He seems to care about offense quite a bit more than defense, as he posted disappointing steal and block rates given his physical tools (especially his 7’0″ wingspan).  He didn’t do a great job of containing penetration either– he’s still young but his defense needs work.

Offensively his length enables him to hit tough, contested shots, as he scored 20+ points in all 3 matchups vs LSU as well as in the championship game vs. UConn.  These teams offered the closest approximation of NBA length and athleticism on Kentucky’s schedule, and they gave the Harrisons and especially Randle big time issues offensively.  I believe his 35% 3’s and 70% FT’s underrate his upside as a shooter since he’s exceptionally young and his form looks good.  But he’s still not quite an elite shooter and what else is there to like?  His assist:turnover ratio is solid.  But he struggles defensively, is a mediocre rebounder, and doesn’t have the handles or burst to regularly get to the rim.  Even if his shot develops exceptionally well, he still needs other skills to become a good NBA player and it’s not the most likely parlay that he overcomes enough weaknesses to become a good starter.

I still take him in round 1 since he’s so young, but I think he’s a bit overrated as a top 20 pick.

Mitch McGary
The Jusuf Nurkic of the NCAA.  McGary doesn’t have great length or athleticism, but makes a defensive impact his own way with strength, quick feet, and good instincts to rack up steals.  He’s a beast on the glass and a solid finisher as well.  The downside is that he missed most of this past season with back issues, and he’s also old for a sophomore as he is already 22.  For these reasons I rate him considerably lower than Nurkic, but I neverthless like him as a late 1st flier.

TJ Warren
I don’t even know what to think here.  He is an unathletic SF who thrives scoring inside the arc.  Is that ever going to be useful in the NBA?  I don’t know.  He has a ridiculous floater, he moves well off the ball, and he had a good steal rate so maybe he makes it all work in his own funky way.  But a wing who is neither an elite athlete, defensive prospect, passer, or shooter seems to have limited upside so he’s a fringe 1st rounder to me.

Glenn Robinson
GR3 is another player who I tried to get into but perceive as a likely disappointment.  He uses his leaping ability to be a scintillating rim finisher, converting 83% (!) of his rim attempts as a sophomore.  His 3 point shot is a work in progress but it’s not hopeless, and he also has the tools to be a good defensive player which gives him the makings of a compelling flier.  But whenever I watch him I get the sense that he lacks the feel for the game on to become a genuinely good player on either end of the floor.  He also isn’t much of a rebounder considering that he played PF for Michigan.  He’s a fringe 1st rounder.

Shabazz Napier
Everybody loves Shabazz after he carried UConn to an unlikely title run as a 7 seed.  He hit an endless stream of off the dribble 3’s to enable UConn’s ugly offense to work well enough to beat a number of touch matchups, and he deserves all the credit in the world for making Kevin Ollie a sought after NBA coach.

As an NBA prospect, my feelings toward him are mixed.  He grades as a solid statistical prospect, and I quite like him as a 3 + D PG paired with a bigger PG to run the offense and defend the wing.  But he’s also tiny, unathletic, old, and not an elite playmaker at the deepest position in the league.  It seems unlikely that he ever becomes a top 15 PG in the NBA since he’s in a mold lacking upside.  While he can become useful anyway, I have a hard time getting excited about the thought of taking him in round 1 with so many higher upside PG’s in the class.

Semaj Christon
Speaking of PG’s with more upside than Bazz, Semaj Christon is one of them.  He is not loved by statistical models, but he is the one player where I heavily favor scouting over stats.  Two problems with taking his stats at face value:

1) He was forced to share PG duties with Dee Davis depressing his assist rate
2) Xavier played a non-gambly defense.  He posted a solid 2.3% steal rate to lead the team, but it doesn’t do service to his tools and defensive potential.

He’s old for a sophomore as he turns 22 right at the start of his rookie season, so I wouldn’t say he is loaded with upside.  He still has plenty of shortcomings that inhibit him as a prospect such as his shooting, decision making, and overall skill level.  But he also has sneaky upside that is undetected by statistical models, so I like him as a late 1st or early 2nd flier.  I can see him becoming an Eric Bledsoe lite.

Doug McDermott
The subject of my first post on the blog, and my feelings still have not changed. I picked McDermott as my first topic to write about because he is so straightforward– he is a one dimensional scorer with awful tools, and limited handling and passing ability. He is a great shooter and moves well off the ball, but his interior scoring has translation risk and there’s not enough else to like to offer any compelling form of upside.

In McDermott’s defense I will note that he wasn’t quite as bad defensively in college as his steals and blocks suggested. Rodney Hood got blown by a fair bit more frequently, to offer an example of worse defense. McDermott was at least smart enough to know when he was facing off with a mismatch and give enough space to not get blown by. This is far less important than his poor physical tools and non-existent defensive playmaking ability, but it does give him a glimmer of hope for being a stomachable level of bad.

I stand by my conclusion that he’s not a 1st round talent. As far as I can tell the only reason why he’s in the discussion for a lottery pick is because he scored a boatload of points, even though the NCAA scoring leaderboard is littered with guys who amounted to absolutely nothing in the NBA. While he is a better shooter and may not be quite as tragic of a bust as Adam Morrison, he is a roughly similar prospect in that they are both one dimensional scorers with poor tools. It would amuse me to no end to see Jordan refuse to learn from his Morrison mistake and take McDermott 9th overall. Absolute best case for McDermott is something along the lines of a SF version of JJ Redick.

Parsing Through The NCAA Prospects: Part 2

24 Tuesday Jun 2014

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Earlier I published part one of my last second scouting binge, and now I am on to part 2.

KJ McDaniels
McDaniels was the first prospect I wrote about as underrated when he was barely even on draft radar.  He is now a consensus first rounder who is neck and neck with Rodney Hood on DX and ESPN (DX has KJ 2 slots higher, ESPN 2 slots lower).

KJ thrives on defense, and it shows in his stats, his team’s performance, and his effort vs. Hood.  Clemson had the 20th best defense in the country (per kenpom.com) as they thrived off shot prevention with the 5th best defensive eFG% and the 5th best defensive FT rate.  McDaniels contributed heavily to both categories, as he led the team in blocks accumulating 100 of the team’s 221 total rejections in spite of being a 6’6″ wing.  To make it even more impressive, he committed fewer fouls than blocks as 2.6 fouls per 40 tied him for 3rd lowest foul rate on the team.  The only player with a substantially lower foul rate was Rod Hall who succeeded at avoiding fouls by also avoiding steals, blocks, and rebounds.  Clemson played a non-gambling defense, ranking just 283rd out of 351 in steal%, but KJ was 2nd among the team’s 10 rotation players in steal rate at 2.3%, only ranking behind foul prone guard Adonis Filer (3.0%).  He also had a solid D-Reb% at 15.9%, narrowing trailing Clemson’s bigs.  KJ was essentially a one man wrecking crew defensively as he excelled in all regards and it showed in his team’s success.

McDaniels is clearly a strong defensive prospect, although he may not quite be as strong as his college resume suggests.  He doesn’t have great size for a SF (6’6″ 196 lbs) and he isn’t exceptionally quick.  He atones for this with length (6’11.25″), explosiveness, and incredible timing on his blocks.  While his block rate will likely fall of a cliff in the NBA, he clearly has enough working in his favor to become a good defensive wing in the NBA.

Offense is the side of the ball where McDaniels is a bit shaky.  He only made 30.4% of his 3PA and his 0.69 assist:turnover ratio leaves much to be desired for a 21 year old wing.  But he also played in a woefully bad offense, and 114.4 O-Rtg on 29.1 usage (per sports-reference.com) is nothing to scoff at given how little help he had.  His efficiency was largely boosted by making 154/183 FT’s (84.2%). While he won’t get to the line as frequently as a pro his FT% does offer hope that he is a better shooter than his 3P% would suggest.  Even though he isn’t quite meant to carry an offense (especially not while carrying the defense and playing 34 mpg), he performed well in the role and nearly backpacked Clemson to the NCAA tournament.

KJ doesn’t quite have the upside to merit a top 10 pick, but if he can develop into a capable floor spacer he has potential to become a quality 3 + D role player who is neutral offensively and good defensively. In my earlier writeup I noted that KJ may elevate his stock to lottery caliber with strong conference play, and he certainly obliged.  I now have him as a late lottery value on my board, and I expect him to get selected in the top 20 on draft night.

Nik Stauskas
Stauskas is another prospect I was high on early in the season, and now it seems everybody is on the wagon.  His appeal is rather straightforward: he has an awesome combination of slick handles, vision, and elite shooting.  His ability to shoot off the dribble as well as spot up gives him interesting upside as a pick and roll ball handler.  He also adds a layer of intrigue with his offseason transformation, as he made stellar progress developing his body and PG skills.  If this is any indication of future growth potential, he may vastly succeed expectations.

That said I’m not completely certain that he is deserving of a lottery selection, and I’m a bit surprised that I haven’t come across more Stauskas skeptics given his poor tools and late 1st round grade according to most statistical models.  While he has surprisingly solid athleticism, he is lacking in speed, quickness, length, and strength and is a virtual lock to be below average defensively.  This is supported by his poor steal rate and his team’s mediocre defensive effort where he was likely their worst perimeter defender.  And it’s unclear how much his physical deficiencies will limit him offensively, as he didn’t carry a particularly high usage at Michigan.  His handles stand out as possibly the best in the draft, but how much will they be undermined by his lack of quicks and strength when he tries to navigate through NBA defenses?

I still believe that stat models undervalue him, because his statistics do not fully convey the goodness of his passing and ball handling.  Further, when models price in the prior year’s stats (as they should) it may be a bit misleading as I believe Stauskas’s leap was completely genuine without the help of positive variance.  In my eyes it’s a bonus that he was able to improve both his body and game by such a drastic margin.

Overall I am still enamored with Stauskas’s strengths and ability to develop himself enough to keep him as a late lottery value.  I only have an inkling of doubt that his bad tools and defense are getting underplayed, but he’s really not the type of player that I am in a rush to bet against.

Kyle Anderson
Anderson is likely the weirdest prospect in the draft.  Every time I try to think really hard about what he’ll become in the NBA, I come up completely blank.  He’s pretty much LeBron James if LeBron was doughy and required to move in slow motion at all times.

I respect the work Layne Vashro does modeling prospects, and it’s hard to ignore that he has Anderson as the #2 prospect in the draft.  Even though that should be de-valued for Anderson’s poor speed and athleticism (as well as UCLA’s gambling zone inflating his steal rate), he does at least have one excellent tool in his length at 7’2.75″.  He measured with solid length for a PF (8’11.5″) and while he needs to add strength to play the position full time it is a possible way to somewhat mitigate his slow motion ways defensively.

My big hang up is that Kyle played PG full-time at UCLA and in spite of his size and skill, was only able to get to the rim a frighteningly low % of the time in the half-court.  If he can’t get to the rim vs. NBA defenses, can he be permitted to handle the ball often enough to reap full benefits from his stellar passing ability?  I would assume not.  This isn’t a death knell for his ability to be useful, as he could succeed in a role similar to what Boris Diaw played for the Spurs.  I feel like the Spurs’ offense is the wave of the future, so investing a player who can thrive as a stretch 4 in a ball movement offense is a pretty good idea in my book.  When is the right juncture of the draft to invest in such a player is the difficult question, which hinges largely on Anderson’s slippery upside.  The fact of the matter is that he doesn’t have a historical upside comparison, if he becomes a good starter he will become the token comparison for unathletic tweeners with great passing ability.

Spencer Dinwiddie
If there was any doubt that Dinwiddie is the most intellectually curious player in the draft, he eradicated that when he tweeted an inquiry regarding his WARP rating at Kevin Pelton:

Jun 18

wouldn’t that 1.1 rating put me in the 20’s tho? Or is my math off?

Jun 18

ook thank u, just checkin…as long as y’all keep saying my stock rising I’m happy lol

I’m not sure whether it’s right to significantly upgrade his stock based on this, but it adds a layer of shine to Dinwiddie as a prospect.  And fortunately there is enough to like about him without appreciating his nerdy, intellectual side.  He is a prototypical role playing SG, as he is a good shooter and a solid ball handler and passer.  Further he has the size and quickness to be solid defensively, which is supported by a good steal rate. He also has excellent shot selection, as he limits his mid-range attempts and draws a ton of FT’s of which he converted 85.7% as a junior.  If anything he shot too infrequently last season, but that is of little concern since he doesn’t have a high usage skill set for the NBA anyhow.

His big weakness is that he doesn’t have the athleticism or burst to be a big time scorer, and he is also coming off an ACL tear that prematurely ended his junior season.  I dropped him a few slots for the ACL tear, but players make strong recoveries often enough such that it doesn’t make him much less attractive.

Dinwiddie is a straightforward prospect.  He likely will never become an all-star, but he has all of the necessary traits to become a good role player at a position that is sorely lacking in depth right now.  He’s a good prospect to target anywhere in the second half of round 1.  I believe he’s sorely underrated as a 2nd round pick and expect him to rise into the 1st round on draft night.

Jordan Adams
Adams is another weird UCLA prospect.  If you are in the business of modeling the draft, good luck coming up with a model that doesn’t love him.  He is a young sophomore who stuffed the stat sheet in every category other than blocks, and on paper he appears to be the next James Harden.

The trouble is that his statistical goodness cannot be taken at face value because he simply does not meet scouting expectations for high NBA upside.  While he has good SG length (6’10”), he has mediocre height (6’4.75″) and lackluster speed, quicks, and athleticism.  And he somehow managed to accrue his great stats without being much of a ball handler or 3 point shooter.

Defensively he used his length, quick hands, and good instincts to rack up a Marcus Smart level 5.0% steal rate.  Unfortunately he doesn’t yield the same level of effectiveness in shot prevention as Marcus Smart, as he doesn’t excel at containing penetration and UCLA’s gambling zone ceded a poor defensive eFG%.  His steal rate is indicative of some good qualities, but it is not reflective of his defensive potential and it was a bit bolstered by UCLA’s zone.  As a freshman he posted a steal rate of 4.2% playing man defense with greater frequency.  That rate is still excellent, but Adams is an example of how steals can be a bit misleading in spite of their predictive power.

Offensively he is more or less an elite garbageman, as he thrived in transition and off of cuts.  He also was a solid offensive rebounder and could post up smaller match-ups.  Even though he only made 33.1% of his career college 3’s, his 83.9% FT% suggest that he may be able to develop into a better long distance shooter than his college sample suggests.  He also had a good assist to turnover ratio (3.1 vs 2.0 as a sophomore) as he is a capable passer.  He certainly benefited from ample transition opportunities as well as playing in a ball movement offense alongside the best passer in the NCAA in Kyle Anderson. His offense has major translation risk.  He’s a bit of a bully and while he has good touch around the rim, his lack of explosiveness will make it difficult to replicate this his rim efficiency at the next level.

The crazy thing about Adams is that he lost weight as the season progressed and then dropped a further 15 pounds leading up to the draft.  Even though he is loaded with translation risks, it’s somewhat amazing that he accomplished as much as he did while being that out of shape.  If he commits to staying in shape going forward (not a given as he picked an awfully opportunistic time to trim down), it adds a degree of intrigue.

Jordan Adams may be a player who is cut out to thrive in college and fall on his face as a pro.  But his statistical excellence and improved condition cannot be entirely ignored, and they are compelling enough to roll the dice in the back end of round 1 once the sure bets are off the board.  This is especially true for a team that incorporates heavy doses of ball movement in the offense, as this provides the optimal environment for Adams to succeed.

Jarnell Stokes
Stokes’ mold of undersized PF who doesn’t make 3’s is limiting, but other than that I like everything about him.  He is the strongest player in the draft and he plays like it, as he activated beast mode near the end of the NCAA season and Tennessee started buzzsawing opponents.  Much like Julius Randle, Stokes isn’t an explosive athlete but neverthless moves well.  Stokes and Randle share a number of parallels– they have similar physical profiles, similar skill sets, similar stats, and they played in the same conference.  The key differences between the two of them are that 1) Randle had more recruiting hype and played for a more reputed school and 2) Stokes has superior awareness and instincts and is the better prospect.

Stat models rate Stokes a hair higher (8.0 vs 7.7 EWP, 1.9 vs 1.6 WARP), but what really sets Stokes apart is that he projects to be less of a liability defensively.  Randle has an awful sense of awareness, and not that Stokes’ awareness is top notch but he did post superior steal + block rates and perform better as a team defender.  Stokes started at center for the 19th best defensive team in the country, and his fellow big man Jeronne Maymon more closely resembled a bowling ball than a rim protector.  Not that Stokes’ deserves a world of credit for Tennessee’s success, as Josh Richardson and Jordan McRae both contributed quality perimeter defense and Armani Moore and Darius Thompson were able to make plays defensively off the bench.  But Stokes played the most important position on the floor and it worked in spite of him not being much of a rim protector, as he contributed with his rebounding and ability to defend without fouling.

Offensively Stokes is still a work in progress, but he’s a beast on the offensive glass, a good passer for a big, and his shot isn’t entirely hopeless as he elevated his FT% to 69.6% after making just 57% as a freshman and sophomore.  He also shot a respectable 37.7% on non-rim 2 pointers (for reference Julius Randle converted 34.5% and Jabari Parker 39.2% on similar volume).  And even though Stokes is two classes above Randle, he’s less than a year older because he’s young for his grade.

Stokes’s strength and rebounding are the foundation of his appeal, and he has enough skill offensively and invests enough effort defensively to possibly become a good role player.  As a bonus, he seems to carry a sincere determination to prove to the world that he is every bit as good as players who are beneficiaries of greater hype such as Julius Randle.  Also he got into a car crash and allegedly wanted to attend his workout anyway in spite of being concussed and covered in blood.  He strikes me as the type of personality who has an above average chance of exceeding expectations.  I won’t weigh this heavily into my final ranking, but he is the one non-lotto guy who I randomly feel compelled to root for.

Anyway that’s all for both part 2 of NCAA parsing.  Part 3 will venture into the prospects in the class with deeper flaws.