Tag Archives: PJ Hairston

Parsing Through The NCAA Prospects: Part 3

25 Wednesday Jun 2014

Posted by in NCAA

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Part 1

Part 2

Rim creation stats that help fuel my skepticism toward a handful of prospects in this post

PJ Hairston
Hairston is a bit of an enigma statistically, as Kevin Pelton’s WARP formula rates him as the #7 NCAA prospect where’s Layne Vashro’s EWP model rates him as a 2nd rounder.  The fact of the matter is that he posted impressive box score stats as a sophomore at UNC, but the EWP model has doubts about his ability to translate based on his reliance on jump shooting.  I think both sides of the equation have merit.

Hairston only made 34.9% of college 3’s (possibly due to poor variance as a freshman), so for a player who doesn’t offer much in the way of handling, athleticism, speed, or passing, it’s kind of frightening how jumper dependent he is.  But he shot 80% on FT’s in college (87% in the D-League) and made 35.8% of 3’s in the D-League (41.8% on 1+ days’ rest- Hairston badly struggled with back to backs).  Overall I feel signs point toward his shot being rather good if not elite.  What gives him appeal is the volume of 3 pointers that he got off due to his quick trigger and deep range.  Hairston attempted 11.3 3’s per 40 minutes, which is better than any recent 1st rounders outside of Steph Curry who attempted around 12 3PA per 40 as a sophomore and junior.  Troy Daniels attempted 12.3 3PA/40 at VCU and he literally offers zero value other than shooting.  Seeing that Morey liked Daniels enough to add him to the playoff roster and allow McHale to play him, I feel compelled to give some extra attention to outlier 3PA rates.

Outside of shooting, Hairston doesn’t have any stand out strengths, but he does do enough to add some balance to his game.  He’s a good offensive rebounder, and he had a good assist:TOV ratio (1.18) as a UNC sophomore even though his assist rate cratered in the D-League.  He has good size, length, and strength for a SG as well as passable quicks and athleticism.  He also posted a good 3.0% steal rate, which implies that he has the instincts to be above average as a defensive wing.  In watching him I’m not sure his focus and awareness are quite enough to make him a stopper, and he likely is an underdog to become above average.  But the possibility is there nevertheless to give him appeal as a 3 + D prospect.

In short PJ Hairston is Troy Daniels with superior physical tools, rim finishing, passing, rebounding, and defensive potential.  If Morey was enamored enough with Daniels to let him anywhere near the playoff rotation as a rookie, it’s worth wondering how he feels about Hairston who can get off a ton of 3’s without being complete deadweight otherwise.  Not that Morey is the best drafter in the world, as he did take Marcus Morris over Kawhi Leonard 14th overall as recently as 3 years ago.  But I nevertheless like Hairston anywhere in the 20’s.

Gary Harris
Harris is an incredibly bland prospect, and I’m not sure why he’s still getting hyped as a lottery pick after his measurements.  His 8’0″ standing reach is appalling, although in his defense Vashro has informed me that height and length in tandem are more predictive than reach.  His 6’4.5″ height with a 6’6.75″ wingspan makes him seem a bit more hopeful, but without plus athleticism or quicks it’s hard to see him translating his good college defense into good defense of NBA SG’s.  He has good strength but when all of his other tools are below average, it’s hard to see him thriving.  Further he badly struggled to get to the rim in the half-court, and doesn’t nearly have the floor general skills to run an NBA offense.

So he’s basically a 3 + D combo guard with mediocre tools, and he obviously lacks the skill to run an offense.  I could see him finding a niche as a Mario Chalmers type who plays with bigger wings who have the skill to run the offense, which is a perfectly useful player.  It’s just not a level of upside that justifies a top 20 pick.

James Young
I want to like James Young.  He was the one Kentucky player who could score against lengthy, athletic defenses and he somehow showed up to a playoff game with Rihanna.  But I have a hard time getting too optimistic.  He seems to care about offense quite a bit more than defense, as he posted disappointing steal and block rates given his physical tools (especially his 7’0″ wingspan).  He didn’t do a great job of containing penetration either– he’s still young but his defense needs work.

Offensively his length enables him to hit tough, contested shots, as he scored 20+ points in all 3 matchups vs LSU as well as in the championship game vs. UConn.  These teams offered the closest approximation of NBA length and athleticism on Kentucky’s schedule, and they gave the Harrisons and especially Randle big time issues offensively.  I believe his 35% 3’s and 70% FT’s underrate his upside as a shooter since he’s exceptionally young and his form looks good.  But he’s still not quite an elite shooter and what else is there to like?  His assist:turnover ratio is solid.  But he struggles defensively, is a mediocre rebounder, and doesn’t have the handles or burst to regularly get to the rim.  Even if his shot develops exceptionally well, he still needs other skills to become a good NBA player and it’s not the most likely parlay that he overcomes enough weaknesses to become a good starter.

I still take him in round 1 since he’s so young, but I think he’s a bit overrated as a top 20 pick.

Mitch McGary
The Jusuf Nurkic of the NCAA.  McGary doesn’t have great length or athleticism, but makes a defensive impact his own way with strength, quick feet, and good instincts to rack up steals.  He’s a beast on the glass and a solid finisher as well.  The downside is that he missed most of this past season with back issues, and he’s also old for a sophomore as he is already 22.  For these reasons I rate him considerably lower than Nurkic, but I neverthless like him as a late 1st flier.

TJ Warren
I don’t even know what to think here.  He is an unathletic SF who thrives scoring inside the arc.  Is that ever going to be useful in the NBA?  I don’t know.  He has a ridiculous floater, he moves well off the ball, and he had a good steal rate so maybe he makes it all work in his own funky way.  But a wing who is neither an elite athlete, defensive prospect, passer, or shooter seems to have limited upside so he’s a fringe 1st rounder to me.

Glenn Robinson
GR3 is another player who I tried to get into but perceive as a likely disappointment.  He uses his leaping ability to be a scintillating rim finisher, converting 83% (!) of his rim attempts as a sophomore.  His 3 point shot is a work in progress but it’s not hopeless, and he also has the tools to be a good defensive player which gives him the makings of a compelling flier.  But whenever I watch him I get the sense that he lacks the feel for the game on to become a genuinely good player on either end of the floor.  He also isn’t much of a rebounder considering that he played PF for Michigan.  He’s a fringe 1st rounder.

Shabazz Napier
Everybody loves Shabazz after he carried UConn to an unlikely title run as a 7 seed.  He hit an endless stream of off the dribble 3’s to enable UConn’s ugly offense to work well enough to beat a number of touch matchups, and he deserves all the credit in the world for making Kevin Ollie a sought after NBA coach.

As an NBA prospect, my feelings toward him are mixed.  He grades as a solid statistical prospect, and I quite like him as a 3 + D PG paired with a bigger PG to run the offense and defend the wing.  But he’s also tiny, unathletic, old, and not an elite playmaker at the deepest position in the league.  It seems unlikely that he ever becomes a top 15 PG in the NBA since he’s in a mold lacking upside.  While he can become useful anyway, I have a hard time getting excited about the thought of taking him in round 1 with so many higher upside PG’s in the class.

Semaj Christon
Speaking of PG’s with more upside than Bazz, Semaj Christon is one of them.  He is not loved by statistical models, but he is the one player where I heavily favor scouting over stats.  Two problems with taking his stats at face value:

1) He was forced to share PG duties with Dee Davis depressing his assist rate
2) Xavier played a non-gambly defense.  He posted a solid 2.3% steal rate to lead the team, but it doesn’t do service to his tools and defensive potential.

He’s old for a sophomore as he turns 22 right at the start of his rookie season, so I wouldn’t say he is loaded with upside.  He still has plenty of shortcomings that inhibit him as a prospect such as his shooting, decision making, and overall skill level.  But he also has sneaky upside that is undetected by statistical models, so I like him as a late 1st or early 2nd flier.  I can see him becoming an Eric Bledsoe lite.

Doug McDermott
The subject of my first post on the blog, and my feelings still have not changed. I picked McDermott as my first topic to write about because he is so straightforward– he is a one dimensional scorer with awful tools, and limited handling and passing ability. He is a great shooter and moves well off the ball, but his interior scoring has translation risk and there’s not enough else to like to offer any compelling form of upside.

In McDermott’s defense I will note that he wasn’t quite as bad defensively in college as his steals and blocks suggested. Rodney Hood got blown by a fair bit more frequently, to offer an example of worse defense. McDermott was at least smart enough to know when he was facing off with a mismatch and give enough space to not get blown by. This is far less important than his poor physical tools and non-existent defensive playmaking ability, but it does give him a glimmer of hope for being a stomachable level of bad.

I stand by my conclusion that he’s not a 1st round talent. As far as I can tell the only reason why he’s in the discussion for a lottery pick is because he scored a boatload of points, even though the NCAA scoring leaderboard is littered with guys who amounted to absolutely nothing in the NBA. While he is a better shooter and may not be quite as tragic of a bust as Adam Morrison, he is a roughly similar prospect in that they are both one dimensional scorers with poor tools. It would amuse me to no end to see Jordan refuse to learn from his Morrison mistake and take McDermott 9th overall. Absolute best case for McDermott is something along the lines of a SF version of JJ Redick.

If Aaron Gordon Is So Smart, Why Does He Play Like Josh Smith?

07 Friday Feb 2014

Posted by in NCAA, Personalities and Intangibles

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As an advocate of prospect intelligence, I would like to clarify that the optimal measurement should not derive from a player’s ability to give an impressive interview or ace an IQ test.  It should stem from how well the player implements his intelligence on the basketball court.  There are plenty of intelligent people who allow their intelligence to be undermined by whatever wants they have as a human being, and consequently do dumb things.  Conversely, PJ Hairston’s intelligence could be questioned given his inability to stay out of trouble this summer.  But he is smart enough to grasp that when he has enough space to get off a 3 pointer, it is a good decision to pull the trigger.  Consequently he scores with a combination of volume and efficiency that is reserved for high IQ players, so his basketball IQ deserves credit for this aspect of his game.

Aaron Gordon often gets lauded for his intelligence, and I do agree that he conveys such in interviews when he speaks with poise and confidence.  But he also has a reputation as an intelligent basketball player, as his coach declared “Aaron’s greatest intelligence lies in his mind” and DraftExpress lists “Very intelligent and mature player, despite his age” as a strength.  I take exception to these assertions based on his shot selection:

Split Makes Attempts %
Rim 73 97 75.3%
Non-Rim 2’s 26 107 24.3%
3’s 7 26 26.9%
FT 46 109 42.2%

He is averaging 5.8 shots per game away from the rim with an eFG of 27.4%, as well as a historically bad FT% of 42.2%.  Consequently, he has a putrid TS% of 47.0% in spite of his scintillating rim finishing ability.  For reference the next lowest TS% among projected 1st rounders is James Young @ 53.5%.  He idolized Magic Johnson as a kid, and he values versatility as he does not want to get pigeonholed to one spot.  Unfortunately for him, there is only one spot on the floor from which he scores effectively, so perhaps he should warm up to the possibility of self-pigeonholing.

It could be argued that he’s young and he is trying to develop his shooting ability to become a more complete player, such that he is an effective shooter in his prime.  I would counter that he should abandon all hope of ever becoming a useful long range shooter in the NBA, because his shot is irreparably broken.  I cannot find any past prospect who shot < 50% at the free throw line as a college freshman and went on to become a successful NBA shooter.  40something FT%’s are reserved for the most woefully inept shooters of all time.  Even Josh Smith shot 68.8% from the line as an NBA rookie.  Dwight Howard shot 67.1% and Shaq shot 55.6% as a college freshman.  Ben Wallace is the worst NBA free throw shooter of all time (min 500 attempts) and he barely had a lower freshman FT% than Gordon at 40.7%.  The 2nd through 5th worst shooters: DeAndre Jordan (43.7%), Chris Dudley (46.7%), Eric Montross (61.2%), and Steven Hunter (70.7%) all sported better FT%’s than Gordon.

Given how historically inept Gordon’s shooting ability is, consider how insane it is that he attempts nearly 6 jump shots per game.  If any of the aforementioned bricklayers ever attempted a jump shot they likely would have been benched, yet Gordon includes it as a regular part of his game.

Blake Griffin is often cited as his upside comparison, but Gordon’s propensity to launch bricks away from the hoop leaves his production miles below that of Griffin as a freshman.  Note that SOS is kenpom.com’s average defensive rating of opponents:

Player Usage O-Rtg eFG% FT% AST% TOV% SOS
Blake 28.6 109.5 56.7 58.9% 16.6 17.4 98.6
Gordon 22.6 102.5 47.6 42.2% 10.4 12.3 101.8

Not only did Griffin convert a higher % of his shots, he got off a higher volume of quality looks.  Gordon is light years behind freshman Blake, and that’s before Blake made a huge leap as a sophomore and went on to be selected #1 overall.  And even though Blake is not regarded as much of an NBA defensive player, he did get more blocks (3.3% vs 3.0%) and steals (2.1% vs 1.2%) than Gordon.

To offer a more realistic comparison, Gordon’s freshman stats are eerily similar to those of Josh Smith as an NBA rookie.  Note that usage and turnover calculations vary at different sources.  Earlier I compared Gordon to Griffin based on statsheet.com stats, now I will compare him to Smith based on sports-reference.com stats for the sake of maintaining like comparisons.

USG% TOV% TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK%
Gordon 22.8 10.2 47.0 11.4 19.0 10.4 1.2 3.0
Smith 18.4 16.0 50.6 7.9 18.6 10.2 1.5 5.4

This comparison should absolutely frighten GM’s interested in Gordon.  While being just 9 months older, Smith posted a better TS% on not much worse usage + turnovers considering the competition rift.   While Gordon is lauded for his passing ability, it is also the strength of Smith’s perimeter game.  This does not bode well, seeing that Smith was playing vastly superior competition and still is a major drag offensively today.  In my recent podcast with Robert Eckstut and Seth Partnow, I mentioned Smith as a Gordon comparison and Robert astutely noted that does not sound good.  Smith is only a useful player because of his elite defensive playmaking ability, without a significantly positive impact on that end he would be worthless.

Gordon has contributed toward Arizona having the best defense in the country (as per kenpom.com), and he has the physical tools to be a positive defensive player in the pros.  But in spite of the credit Gordon deserves for his role in Arizona’s awesome defensive scheme of funneling opponent shot attempts to the midrange, this is not enough to project him as a Josh Smith level difference maker, as both his steal and block rates are inferior to that which Smith posted as an NBA rookie.  If Gordon becomes a neutral or slight positive defensively in the NBA, that will not nearly make his offense worth stomaching at any draft slot, let alone a top 10 one.

Gordon’s prospective value lies in the possibility that his NBA coach convinces him to abandon his appalling shot and operate strictly in the post.  He needs to let go of his desire to be Magic Johnson, accept his role as an elite rim finisher, and start adding muscle and working on his post moves.  It is difficult to assess the likelihood of such an outcome, as it has been a common perception that Josh Smith would be great if he fell out of love with his shot for his entire career.  Yet here we are in his 10th NBA season, and Kirk Goldsberry is making Smith shot charts that are as hilarious as ever.

Teams interested in Gordon will need to explore his coachability and flexibility via interview and feedback from his coach.  But without an expressed willingness to abandon his perimeter pursuits, I simply wouldn’t draft him.  For now it’s worth wondering what he brings that other toolsy dunkers lacking range such as Montrezl Harrell and Jerami Grant do not.  Their lack of range may be problematic for their NBA value, but at least they don’t exacerbate it by insisting on being perimeter players.  The world already has one Josh Smith, and I don’t see the particular need to add another.