Tag Archives: Emmanuel Mudiay

2015 Pre-season Rookie Update: #’s 1-12

25 Sunday Oct 2015

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Star
1. Karl Towns (Final Big: 1st, Drafted: 1st)

One problem with the exercise of ranking draft prospects is that it can result in a lack of attention to a consensus #1 overall pick. After a season where 5 or 6 players could be argued to deserve the #1 pick, I have yet to see a credible argument that Towns is not the best prospect in the draft. Consequently, nobody discusses his precise level of goodness.

He’s arguably the 3rd best prospect to enter the draft post Oden/Durant. Anthony Davis is #1, and I would have taken Joel Embiid ahead of Towns before he was revealed to be an incorrigible Shirley Temple guzzler.

The next tier of prospects includes Derrick Rose, John Wall, Blake Griffin, and Kyrie Irving. Rose did not dominate college enough, and Kyrie is a non-athletic non-defense PG so I wouldn’t even consider either of them ahead of towns. Griffin and Wall both dominated college and have extreme levels of athleticism that Towns lacks, but I wouldn’t take a non-shooting non-rim protecting Griffin over a center who does both. Wall had the strongest case as an elite 2 way PG (he could have become so much better than he is), but I still favor Towns. A two way 3 point shooting center with no significant leaks in his prospect profile outside of merely good not great physical tools is just too attractive to pass up.

Of course Towns had to get drafted to the team with the most pre-historic NBA offense, and consequently he has a mere 2 attempts from 3 in the pre-season as the front office is paying Kevin Garnett $17M to mentor Towns to take jumpers with his heels on the arc. So perhaps like Wall his potential will never be fully realized, but I nevertheless rate him as the 3rd best prospect in the last 8 drafts. He should be awesome in spite of his un-sharp environment.

Good Prospects Who Are Significantly Inferior to KAT
2. Justise Winslow (Final Big: 3rd, Drafted: 10th)

Winslow has been a passing machine in the pre-season, tallying 20 assists vs 10 turnovers. This is largely due to his inability to score, as he struggled to put the biscuit in the basket from all parts of the court this pre-season. He has the ability to create quality shots for himself, but it doesn’t show in his pre-season stats as he averaged a meager 8 pts per 36 minutes.

After shooting just 25/93 (27%) on non-rim 2’s in college, Winslow only converted 2/17 of two pointers 5+ feet from the rim in the pre-season. It seems unfathomable that he can continue to be this bad from short and mid-range, but it’s nevertheless concerning if the trend continues to hold. For now, Winslow is leaning heavily on rim attempts and free throws to get his buckets.

It’s possible that he’s a career eFG% disaster if he can’t convert non-layups. But I stand by my pre-draft assessment that he is awesome at everything other than shooting. He is only 19, and he has time to learn to score away from the hoop. If he does and develops his slashing ability, he has star potential. If he doesn’t he may fall well short of the lofty praise I heaped on him pre-draft. This is a weak #2 ranking, as Justise’s scoring concerns are real and he is closer to #10 than he is to #1.

3. Stanley Johnson (Final Big: 7th, Drafted: 8th)
4. D’Angelo Russell (Final Big: 2nd, Drafted: 2nd)

This may feel like an overreaction to pre-season and summer league, but the only reason Russell ever rated ahead of Stanley is because of a not large 35 game NCAA sample. Stanley was the #3 RSCI recruit vs. Russell’s #16, and statistically the two weren’t THAT far apart. They both had questionable athleticism and questionable splits vs. good defenses, and after summer league and pre-season Russell’s concerns are much more glaring.

After a dismal summer league where Russell posted 16 assists vs 26 turnovers, he cut the turnovers in the pre-season but offered little outside of a few mid-range jumpers made off the dribble and an 11 assist game vs. Maccabi Haifa. And it’s not encouraging that he landed with one of the worst coaches surrounded by chuckers in the backcourt, which is a terrible scenario for his development. This is not enough to cast aside his excellent skill level and vision, but my optimism is tempered.

On the other hand, Johnson quelled concerns about rim finishing concerns when he converted an awesome 25/40 inside the arc in summer league. He also showed an improved handle, as he was able to slash through the defense to create layups for himself on multiple occasions while still posting more assists (10) than TOVs (9). His pre-season 2P% was mildly disappointing at 42% (28/67), and he still looks a bit clumsy with the ball so minor concerns linger. But he finished rim attempts efficiently, and only struggled to make short-mid range 2’s as he converted just 11/41 of 2PA that were 5+ feet from the rim according to ESPN shot charts. He excelled at these shots in college and pre-season, so this is likely attributable to bad variance.

Johnson is so solidly good across the board at such a young age that it’s hard to envision him amounting to not much. He doesn’t specialize in any one skill, but being average or better across the board can sum up to a valuable player to give him sneaky upside. After resisting all NCAA season, I’m finally ready to hop on board with the Stanimal. He’s the most likely non-Towns prospect to become an above average player.

5. Mario Hezonja (Final Big: 11th, Drafted: 5th)

I wasn’t high on Hezonja entering the draft, but that’s mostly because I was too lazy to scout him and chalked him up as a mystery box. There’s a lot to like here:

-He’s the most explosive player in the draft class
-He has good size at 6’8″
-He is a good 3 point shooter and bombs away with decent volume.
-He is a willing passer
-He has good shot selection and better feel for the game than you’d expect

The only holes in his game is that his handle is somewhat limited and he is bizarrely turnover prone. But I don’t see any clear reason why his turnovers won’t be cut, and his handle is good enough to do this.

To the masses he has become a caricature of overconfidence, as his swagger has overshadowed his play. So while he has solidified himself as a source of entertainment, nobody seems to be predicting greatness. It’s hard to read his quotes and expect a good team player. But in summer league 31 of his 66 FGA have come from 3, and he converted 51% (18/35) of his 2PA. His shot selection seems generally good, and this is supported by his ACB and Euro stats. He hasn’t been perfect, as he did drain the shot clock to skip the 2 for 1 and take a long 2 off the dribble. But overall there were many more good attempts than awful ones.

It cannot be taken for granted that team player Mario will continue to show up over the course of his NBA career. It’s possible that once he is on track to greatness, his stubbornness causes him to regress to poor habits. But if he stays on track, he can be anywhere from an efficient 3 + D piece to a full fledged star. His personality risks are well worth bearing given his upside. There’s an argument that he belongs even higher, and he could easily close the season as the #2 rookie in the class.

6. Willie Cauley-Stein (Final Big: 6th, Drafted: 6th)

With all of the negative pre-draft reports and him landing on one of the most incompetent NBA franchises, there is a natural aversion to WCS loving. But this is the same league where Clint Capela inexplicably slid to 26th overall in 2014, and the Kings may have made a decent pick in spite of being themselves.

WCS quietly had a good pre-season and SL, and possibly earned himself a starting role. Offensively he is limited but he is a solid garbageman who avoids mistakes as he posted a microscopic 0.85 TOVs per 36 in 253 SL + PS minutes. Defensively he isn’t perfect, but he has good instincts poking away passes and his size, athleticism, and superhuman quickness gives him upside.

It’s hard to envision him not becoming a useful NBA player, and a Tyson Chandler-ish upside isn’t bad.

7. Kelly Oubre (Final Big: 8th, Drafted: 15th)

Oubre struggled to make 3’s shooting 8/32 in SL and 1/14 pre-season, but I suspect this is largely poor variance since there weren’t questions about his shot entering the draft. More importantly, he showed a better than expected slashing ability (especially in summer league), which is exciting for a player with his awesome tools. He also posted a monster free throw rate, continued to rack up huge steal totals with his excellent length and quickness, and kept his turnover total reasonably low.

He still needs to improve his passing ability, as his assist rate did not improve from his disappointing NCAA rate. And he needs to prove that he has the feel for the game to score and defend at the NBA level. These deficiencies are why he slid to 15th overall, and they could preclude him from becoming a good NBA’er. But his tools and overall statistical production are both good enough such that they could easily trump his flaws in the long run.

Wings with Oubre’s tools who can do a little bit of everything don’t come around often, and he was a great gamble for Washington at 15th overall.

8. Jahlil Okafor (Final Big: 4th, Drafted: 3rd)

Okafor was awful in both summer league and pre-season. His value is largely entirely tied into his ability to finish at the rim with his excellent length and touch, but in the pre-season he struggled to create attempts and has instead settled for mid-range shots. Consequently he shot 38.6 FG% (22/57) and drew a mere 9 FTA. He also had a terrible 4 assists vs 18 turnovers, as he did not display passing ability to offset his plummet in scoring efficiency.

Some blame can be placed on Philly’s poor guard play and spacing, and he still can become an efficient offensive weapon if he finds a way to get a higher volume shots at the rim. But thus far he has been a black hole of extreme inefficiency, and efficient scoring was his only real strength entering the draft. This is especially scary considering his poor shooting and lackluster defense, as his offense needs to translate to the NBA exceptionally well for him to have any compelling upside scenario.

I felt I gave Okafor the benefit of the doubt by ranking him 4th in the class, and now that all of his translation flags are glaring it is hard to feel optimistic. How excited would you be if your favorite team drafted a one trick pony who may not be able to translate his one trick to the NBA level?

9. Emmanuel Mudiay (Final Big: 5th, Drafted: 7th)

A number of intelligent people think highly of Mudiay, as he has great tools and legitimate PG skills. But he still has a long road to go to become a good NBA player, and it starts with his shooting. Combining SL, PS, China, and high school all-star games he has shot 28% (22/79) from 3 and 58% (55/95) FT. It’s hard to project his shot confidently from a mish mash of small samples, but it looks bad.

There’s a short list of PG’s since 2000 who have been successful with a FT% < 70%: it’s mostly a bunch of Rondo seasons and a smattering of young Baron Davis and Tony Parker before they graduated to consistent 70%+ shooting. This is for good reason– a point guard that runs frequent pick and rolls is inevitably going to pull up for jumpers and floaters, and an inability to convert will tank his efficiency. Even Rondo was a respectable 40% career shooter from 16-23 feet. If Mudiay doesn’t learn to shoot, the rest of his game needs to be pristine to become a good starting PG

In PS + SL, Mudiay’s rebounds, steals, and blocks totals were all decent but unspectacular. He was given a large role offensively and permitted to take his lumps, and lumpy it was. He barely posted more assists (50) than TOVs (44) and his scoring was hyper-inefficient. There is clear room for improvement as he trims the fat, but there sure is lots of fat to trim. While he has potential on defense, he doesn’t have the best fundamentals and it’s unlikely that he becomes lockdown while shouldering such a big offensive load. And even though he’s athletic, he’s not on Westbrook, Wall, or Rose’s level of explosiveness. Perhaps his handle, passing, vision, and tools are enough to muster a respectable career as a non-shooting PG, but I don’t see how he is amazing enough to buck historical trends and become anything near a star without learning to shoot.

He is young enough to have a chance of developing into a respectable shooter, and this is largely where all of his upside lies. But he will almost certainly never become an above average shooter. Even if progression slightly below average shooting is guaranteed, he still has a long way to go to develop the rest of his game into a star. I see his upside as John Wall-ish, and a number of things need to go right for this to be achieved. It’s a good upside, but it’s not great and it’s dragged down by a boatload of bust equity.

Stretch 5’s
10. Bobby Portis (Final Big: 14th, Drafted: 22nd)

Portis is in a different vein from Porzingis and Turner, as he is slightly undersized for a center and not explosive enough to be a prolific shot blocker. But his mobility, high basketball IQ, and non-stop motor make him ideal for a defense that switches heavily. Given questions regarding Porzingis’s instincts and rebounding and Turner’s ability to defend the pick and roll, it wouldn’t be shocking if Portis ended up as the best defensive player of the trio.

It was a stretch to call Portis a stretch big entering the draft, with just 8% of his college FGA coming behind the arc. But playing for 3 point happy Fred Hoiberg, Portis increased his 3PA rate to 15% in his combined PS + SL sample in spite of the greater distance. It is too soon to tell how reliably he will make these, but merely attempting them is a good sign.

His biggest flaw remains his lack of explosiveness. Consequently he struggles to finish in traffic, and his 43% preseason 2P% is not inspiring. But he gets most of his shots in the flow of the offense, which keeps his turnover rate low. He also posted monster rebound numbers, and overall he had a reasonably efficient pre-season on above average usage.

Halfway through his freshman season, I wrote about the curious lack of draft hype for Portis. Some level of skepticism made sense, as his lack of burst is a genuine damper on his upside. But he is also overlooked due to lacking sex appeal in his game (i.e. a turnaround jumpshot) that he doesn’t need to be effective. His edge lies in size, mobility, effort, smarts, rebounding, shotmaking ability, and fitting in well with the team concept. It is not certain that this will sum to much, but it looks like it will amount to something. And based on pre-season something could be more than most are expecting.

11. Kristaps Porzingis (Final Big: 12th, Drafted: 4th)
12. Myles Turner (Final Big: 20th, Drafted: 11th)

Has anybody noticed that Porzingis and Turner are nearly the exact same thing? Both are awkward bigs who offer shot blocking, shooting (including turnarounds!), and not much else.

Porzingis’s hype train is comical. Knick fans are so starved for any ray of hope that every minutely positive Staps play gets blown out of proportion as if he just cured cancer. There are things to like– he is a giant with decent mobility, and is comfortable operating behind the arc with 22% of his PS + SL FGA coming from 3. He also posted more cumulative assists (13) than turnovers (11) in spite of being flagged for a poor ratio in Europe, so his feel for the game may not be that bad after all.

The downside is that he is not Dirk. Not even close. As expected for a 7’2″ player, he is neither fluid nor coordinated. This doesn’t mean he will be bad on offense, as he spaces the floor and his quickness comes in handy when he gets a clear lane against a mismatch. And if he continues to move the ball and limit turnovers, that’s a nice offensive piece for a rim protecting giant. But his value could be diminished if the Knicks expect him to create regularly. He doesn’t have the fluidity or burst to regularly attack off the dribble with efficiency and his shot isn’t good enough to score efficiently on regular mid-range attempts.

Defensively is where Staps has the most potential, as his size and length enables him to protect the rim, and his mobility enables him to defend the pick and roll and hold his own on switches. But he is nevertheless difficult to project on this end as his lackluster instincts may prevent him from becoming a great defensive piece. Also his poor rebounding detracts from his strengths on this end and puts pressure on the PF to pick up his slack on the glass.

Staps has an interesting blend of forces working in his favor opposed by flaws working against him. In the best case he becomes a quality 3 + D center who can also exploit offensive mismatches, and in the worst case he becomes a black hole on offense who never becomes a positive defensively in spite of his physical advantages. He definitely has some compelling upside, but his upside is vastly overstated by ESPN/NYC and he has clear bust risk. Also he is the type of player who could get a big boost from coaching, so it is unfortunate that he was drafted to the Knicks.

Turner lacks confidence in his NBA 3 pointer, as just 7 of his 76 SL + PS FGA came beyond the arc. Larry Bird said that Turner might be the best shooter on the team, and this is supported by his 84% college FT’s. But his 27.4 NCAA 3P% along with his scarce 3PA rate in the NBA bodes ill for the current state of his shooting range. He has a nice turnaround mid-range jumper, but he loves it so much he may as well marry it. 28 of his 37 pre-season FGA came on non-rim 2PA, and 22 came on 2PA that were 11+ feet from the hoop. In a related story, he posted a putrid 43.3% TS. This figure suffers from poor shooting variance, but it is nevertheless challenging to score efficiently with such an extreme rate of mid-range attempts. Extending his range beyond the arc and displacing a portion of mid-range attempts with 3 pointers would do a world of good for Turner’s value.

The upside is that Turner rebounds reasonably well and he blocks shots at an insane rate. There are questions about his ability to defend the pick and roll given his poor lateral quickness, and he isn’t fit for a defense that heavily switches. But Frank Vogel has already built an elite defense with an immobile big swatting away shots at the rim, so Indiana is a great landing spot for Turner to thrive on D.

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2015 Big Board– How Do We Rate Mudiay?

03 Friday Apr 2015

Posted by in Big Boards

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Elite Tier

1. Karl Towns
2. Justise Winslow
3. D’Angelo Russell

These prospects are all high floor high ceiling studs. I would grade all of them in the range of a high end #2 pick to an average #1 in an average draft. Towns gets #1 because he’s a two way big prospect, and then Winslow and Russell are exceptionally close for #2. I favor Winslow because of his late season destruction and awesome tools, but Russell’s skill package is exceptional and he could be quite the offensive weapon. Whoever drafts these guys in the #3-5 range are going to be winners in this draft.

Note: I rate all three players below Joel Embiid and above all other prospects in the 2014 class.

Unique Blend of Elite Skill and Appalling Warts
4. Jahlil Okafor

Okafor is the most skilled low post freshman NCAA scorer I have ever watched, and I believe it will translate to the NBA given his monster size, length, hands, as well as footwork and rim touch. But he has holes in his game that the other top guys do not, and his lack of rim protection and shooting makes it difficult to place him in a lineup that maximizes his awesome low post scoring. He fits comfortably into the #4 slot on my big board, as there is a wide chasm between the top 3 and the rest of the class.

Upsidey Guys Who Are Starting To Get a Bit Warty
5. Emmanuel Mudiay

Assessing Mudiay’s draft stock is an interesting topic. I am a big advocate of swinging for the fences, since upside is far more important than downside and passing up a future star for a decent player is far more harmful than passing up a decent player for a bust.  But the mystery box factor actually puts a dent in a Mudiay’s upside, as passing the check point of NCAA competence makes a player more likely to achieve their theoretical upside.

If Mudiay had spent this past season in college, he may have been as disappointing as past prospects such as Andrew Harrison, Marquis Teague, Austin Rivers, etc. Based on descriptions that his game needs polish, it is highly unlikely that he would have outperformed his #2 RSCI pedigree and boosted his stock by any significant margin. The fact that he is being evaluated as if he played NCAA and lived up to the hype is insane, as he is avoiding the risk that he falls out of favor with scouts with his flaws under a microscope without any opportunity cost. Drafting him over Winslow or Russell would be an unequivocal mistake with so much more downside and little (if any) additional upside.

This point should be especially obvious with the rookie disappointment of Dante Exum, who I believe had a more compelling thin slice. Mudiay’s physical tools are slightly preferrable, as he is more explosive with a better frame but does not quite have Exum’s quickness and is an inch shorter. Both have a gaping wart in their shooting ability, with Mudiay’s being marginally more worrisome. The difference maker is that Exum was reputed as having a superior basketball IQ and feel for the game, which I agreed with based on the one game eye test. I do not believe Mudiay has a poor feel or basketball IQ like Andrew Harrison does, but his decision making has been called into question and nothing shines for him skill wise. Everything is sheer potential– he could be a great PG if he adds polish to his half-court skill. He could be a beast defensively, but I see little discussion of him actually showing noteworthy acumen or intensity on that end. Any discussion of his draft stock needs to come with the glaring red flag that he might be terrible at basketball.

There is a point in the top 10 where it is worth taking the risk that he is bad at basketball given his physical tools, which are comfortably above average across the board. With height, length, speed, quickness, strength, and athleticism, he offers the whole package. But he nevertheless does not have the freaky nuclear athleticism of John Wall, Derrick Rose, or Russell Westbrook, which makes playing Mudiay roulette a bit less enticing. I am not sure exactly where to place him, but 5th is the maximum reasonable peak and he could be argued to go a fair bit lower. I am keeping him 5th for now because I don’t have any strong conviction that any of my lower prospects ran above him, but he is much closer to 10th in my book than is to the top 3.

6. Willie Cauley-Stein
7. Kelly Oubre
8. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
9. Stanley Johnson
10. Mario Hezonja
11. Kristaps Porzingis

These players all have arguments ahead of Mudiay. WCS offers the super power of elite footspeed and quickness in player with legitimate center size, which gives him tantalizing defensive versatility. Offensively he is strictly a garbage man, but he does not force bad shots and his FT% is improving, so he should at least be efficient in his limited role.

I already shared in depth thoughts on Kelly Oubre and Stanley Johnson. I noted in my writeup that I gravitate toward Oubre being the 5th best prospect, but I really don’t have enough faith in him being actually good at basketball to boldly place him above WCS and Mudiay. For now I am playing it safe and keeping him 7th.

On the other hand, I do have loads of faith in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. He is the Marcus Smart of this draft who is a defensive stud and the type of player who will find ways to help his team win games. His lack of 3 point range or offensive creation skill places a damper on his stock. But he is not a complete zero offensively since he is a good passer, an electric finisher, and has a respectable FT%. With his awesome tools and defensive versatility, I believe it is wise to just take him in the lottery and gamble that offensive game fills out adequately one way or another.

Mario Hezonja is a mystery box that I have little grasp on. With his athleticism, I buy the narrative that he has upside so 10th feels like a good place to rank him.

‘Staps is also a mystery box, and with Layne Vashro repeatedly tweeting the Bargnani comparison I have a hard time getting excited for him. With rumors of questionable work ethic and Staps being soft on the glass, it feels like some form of disappointment is inevitable. But he’s young, tall, toolsy, he can shoot, and I have not scouted him so I can’t take a strong anti-Staps position with great fervor.

Quality Role Players
12. Kevon Looney
13. Jakob Poeltl Somehow Rhymes with Turtle
14. Frank Kaminsky
15. Tyus Jones
16. Myles Turner
17. Kris Dunn
18. Christian Wood
19. Delon Wright
20. Sam Dekker

Looney’s stats are nice and his tools seem decent enough. Same with Frank, although smoothness for his size is his calling card rather than physical tools.

I want to love Poeltl more, as he offers nice rebounding and defense. But to my eye his offensive game feels a bit choppy, and I am skeptical of his upside on that end. Still a solid guy to take in the back end of the lottery.

It’s worth worrying that Tyus Jones will struggle translating his NCAA production similar to Tyler Ennis and Trey Burke, as he is tiny and not exceptionally athletic. But he has awesome skill, razor sharp instincts, and a better first step than his fellow undertooled T’s, so mid-1st round seems like a good time to gamble.

Myles Turner offers a unique blend of size and shooting, but to my eye he appears to be a stiff. He doesn’t pass, doesn’t get offensive rebounds, and was oddly inefficient inside the arc given his size and shooting ability. And in spite of his stellar block rate, he is not explosive and does not have the monster size of less athletic rim protectors such as Roy Hibbert or Rudy Gobert. Unless he develops a good NBA 3 point shot that he can get off at a high volume with his reach, I do not see him amounting to much as a pro.

Kris Dun has solid tools + solid stats and his mid-1st round standing seem appropriate. But I haven’t scouted him much so my opinion currently lacks depth.

Christian Wood I have not scouted, but on the surface he is intriguing to me. He offers rebounding, shot blocking, and has potential to develop into a stretch 4. He dominated in UNLV’s surprise win vs. Arizona, and he was certainly not aided by playing for one of the absolute worst NCAA coaches in Dave Rice. I am not sure he is necessarily underrated, but he is a player I would give a long and hard look if I was an NBA team with a mid-late 1st round pick.

Sam Dekker has been receiving loads of hype for his NCAA tournament performance, but to me he is the most bland prospect in the draft. He does not have any gaping weaknesses nor does he shine at anything in particular. I believe he will be a decent rotation player in the NBA, but I don’t see all that much upside.

In contrast to Dekker, Delon Wright has all sorts of funky polarity. I suspect that his lack of strength, quickness, or explosiveness will prevent him from translating his stellar college production to the NBA. But with his awesome combination of height, length, skill, basketball IQ, and instincts, he is a unique prospect and it is difficult to place a hard cap on his upside with high confidence. Thus he trades over boring Dekker.

Boring Role Players
21. Jerian Grant
22. Devin Booker
23. Caris LeVert
24. Bobby Portis
25. Trey Lyles
26. RJ Hunter
27. Cameron Payne
28. Rashad Vaughn
29. Robert Upshaw
30. Josh Richardson

This tier is more boring Dekker-ish players. Jerian Grant has an intriguing blend of physical tools, shooting, passing, and shot creation. But he also is old and has an bizarrely low rebound rate which is a bit of a red flag. I like him but feel he is slightly overrated after Notre Dame’s tournament run.

Devin Booker is the youngest prospect in the draft and can shoot the lights out, but offers little else. His passing and BBIQ are both solid, but he is a t-rex who is not particularly athletic and has exceptionally low steal, block, and rebound rates. He does not figure to make an impact defensively or with shot creation. He is a bland floor spacer to me.

Caris LeVert does a little bit of everything and has decent tools. His value takes a small hit because he missed most of this past season with a foot injury, but he could become a nice role player for a late 1st round pick.

Bobby Portis had a highly productive sophomore year– he is skilled, smart, and he plays hard. He has potential to become a solid stretch 4 in the NBA. But his lack of athleticism prohibits him from making a big impact, although I do suspect that his pro defensive impact exceeds what you would expect given his physical tools.

Trey Lyles is similar to Portis, and has even better handles and creation ability. But Portis strikes me as the more intelligent player, so I’m giving him the slight edge.

RJ Hunter is a 3 + maybe D prospect. Josh Richardson is a maybe 3 + D prospect.

Cameron Payne is the funkiest and most unique prospect in this tier. While he has lackluster tools for an NBA PG, he atones with a strong skill set as he guided Murray State to the 14th best kenpom offense in the NCAA. He is somewhat intoxicating to watch, and I feel compelled to make an campaign that Cam Payne has sneaky upside. But I can’t place my finger on a strong logical reason behind this, and with such PG depth in the NBA I do not want to overrate an undertooled PG dominating weak college competition.

Rashad Vaughn was the #10 RSCI recruit. While he appears to be a chucker, he posted solid NCAA statistics for an 18 year old. Like Christian Wood I am intrigued to see what he can accomplish once freed from the shackles of his horrific coach.

Robert Upshaw has serious red flags in his intangibles since he has been kicked off two college teams, but he is such a monster rebounder and rim protector that I remain intrigued.

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Scouting The Hoop Summit: Can Mudiay Go #1?

30 Monday Jun 2014

Posted by in NCAA

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After writing my way too early 2015 preview, I received some commentary on my exclusion of Emmanuel Mudiay. I didn’t realize that he was being hyped as the 2nd most likely #1 overall pick, but Chad Ford says his Hoop Summit performance has him in the equation breathing down Okafor’s neck. Fortunately the Hoop Summit can be watched on youtube, so I decided to pick apart his performance and assess the extent to which I agree with the hype.

Offense
Mudiay played for the World Team and was given the keys to the offense as their only player cut out for heavy ball handling duties. It was clear that his objective was to push tempo in transition, where he is at his best. Also USA Team did quite a bit of pressing and trapping which opened up lanes for Mudiay to attack when the World Team beat the press. He didn’t do much attacking of a set defense, so this was the optimal type of game for him to thrive. Note that this is not completely unabridged, based on box score I’m missing a couple of missed 3’s and maybe a turnove. Then again maybe the box score is wrong.

Passing
3:32 Beats Johnson off the dribble and kicks it out to create an open 3 which is missed.
7:08 Attacks in transition, gets cut off by Oubre, passes to Inglis
7:50 Rises up for shot, changes mind at last second and throws ball away for turnover
22:35 Gets dual pressure from Johnson + Oubre in backcourt, almost turns it over, eventually world team gets called for 8 seconds.
24:47 In transition interior pass gets tipped away by Tyus Jones for turnover
27:50 Attacks on PnR, Oubre pokes away pass for turnover
34:05 World team beats press, Mudiay attacks and makes good decision to pass to Birsen for easy layup.
39:07 Beats press, kicks it out for missed open 3 attempt
39:48 Inbounds to Brandone Francis who makes long 2.
1:22:12 Threads the needle to Towns on the pick and roll, but the bounce pass is knee level and Towns can’t catch it.
1:24:42 Nicely passes the ball off to Lyles in transition who gets rejected by Oubre
1:27:54 Passes to a cutting Lyles who lays it in

Transition Scoring
3:55 Misses transition layup
10:54 Attacks in transition, gets cut off by Oubre on perimeter
23:22 Dunks on transition breakaway
31:03 Attacks and draws FT’s in transition
33:09 After world team beats press, Mudiay catches ball with open lane and explodes to hoop for made layup.
51:29 Beats Johnson in transition for made layup
54:06 Gets to hoop in transition, gets blocked from behind by Cliff Alexander
1:20:38 Rips strong rebound, pushes the ball in transition, dishes the ball to Murray, gets it back and misses layup.
1:22:54 Makes layup in transition
1:28:25 Draws FT’s in transition

Halfcourt Creation
19:39 Spots up for open jumper, blows by overly aggressive Pinson closeout and converts finger roll.
20:45 Two US defenders converge on Birsen who swings to Mudiay. Mudiay attacks open lane to hoop and misses layup.
52:38 Tries to attack Oubre off the dribble, can’t get all the way to the rim, kicks it out to perimeter
55:59 Blows by Alexander after shot fake, misses layup
1:17:25 Blows by Travis, misses layup
1:17:51 Gets crafty inbounding to himself off of Turner’s behind, almost turns it over when Winslow is ready for him at rim.
1:25:29 Jukes Johnson, blows to the rim and finishes +1
1:27:15 Gets matched up vs Okafor on the switch, can’t blow by. Gives ball up, gets it back, still can’t get past Okafor and badly bricks floater.

Jumpshooting
6:25 Hits mid-range shot off the dribble
35:28 Badly bricks transition 3 attempt
41:00 Makes pull up 3 pointer
44:24 Misses pull up jumper with shot clock winding down

Defense
The World played quite a bit of zone and I couldn’t find much foot of Mudiay’s man to man mettle. His length caused problems as he finished with 3 steals. Note that I couldn’t find the timestamp for one of his steals where he deflected a Stanley Johnson inbounds pass and then saved it to his teammate, and it was his most impressive steal. The occasions a USA player ventured into his zone defensively he was somewhat lazy, which is partially understandable given his big role on offense.

5:09 Lazy swipe in transition
6:09 Lazy help
9:01 In zone, makes little effort to cut off Johnson drive
20:00 Doubles myles turner, comes up with steal when turner attacks and loses the ball
24:52 Plays matador defense as he lazily swipes vs Oubre in transition
57:28 Uses length to pick off Tyus Jones’s pass in transition, draws foul going back the other way
1:27:05 Just watches as Jones attacks his area of zone and banks in floater

This may be kind of a mess for anybody who wants to re-watch, but at least it organizes the things that he did in the game for my synopsis.

Strengths:
-Great size for PG. 6’5″ 200 lbs 6’8.5″ wingspan
-Strong athletic package: quicks, speed, and explosiveness all present
-Good ball handler
-Solid court vision
-Didn’t make any appalling decisions. Passed the ball when he was unable to get his shot off. Does not appear to have Andrew Harrison-ish blinders. Only blocked once from behind, was a great athletic play by Alexander and not a bad decision from Mudiay.
-Showed ability to be disruptive defensively with steals. Hard to accurately assess his instincts w/o bigger sample, however.
-Beast in the open court. He pushed pace diligently and attacked every time he had an opening.

Weaknesses
-Sloppy with the ball. Threw away a number of passes
-Missed 5 clean looks at the rim. Can he finish in the half-court?
-Overall shot poorly at All-Star games. Between McDonald’s, Hoop Summit, Jordan Brand tallied 1/11 3’s 7/16 FT’s. DX says he shot 6/41 from 3 in EYBL. Is his shot broken?
-Somewhat lazy on defense. Will he capitalize on his tools on this end?
-Appears to be a work in progress in the half-court. This is where he needs to develop to successfully translate to tougher competition.
-Doesn’t have either an outlier tool or an outlier skill. What makes him a special snowflake?

Conclusion
Overall, there’s a lot to like and not much to hate, but what is there to truly love about Mudiay? First let’s start with his physical tools. They are definitely good, as he is a clear positive across the board. His body is similar to that of John Wall, who measured 6’4″ 196 lbs with a 6’9.25″ wingspan at the combine, only Mudiay was 1.5 years younger when he was measured. But I watched their high school mixtapes on youtube to compare their athleticism, and Mudiay is nowhere near as explosive as John Wall. Granted, he’s clearly a very good athlete and Wall is the gold standard for physical tools for a PG. But if we are talking about #1 overall for a PG with a pedestrian skill package, it’s hard to get too excited if he’s not going to be among the creme de la creme of athletes at his position.

The good news for his skill package is that nothing seems necessarily fatal. To me having blinders (this needs to become a scouting word, it is so descriptive of a common + important flaw) is the worst weakness a prospect can have. It was the reason why scouts so quickly soured on Andrew Harrison, he is awful at making crisp decisions. Once he puts the ball on the floor, he does often not changing his mind and frequently gets stuffed at the rim or turns it over. I was impressed with Mudiay’s ability to pass the ball when he didn’t have a clean look at the rim. Mudiay is also more athletic than Harrison, and with these two tidbits in mind I just don’t see Mudiay plummeting quite as hard as Harrison did.

But there are nevertheless reasons to be concerned. His shot might be broken, his passes were often off target, and he bricked 5 easily makeable layups. It seems that his fine motor skills are not good at delivering the ball where he intends it, and this is something that needs to improve. But if a player is going to be turnover prone, I’d rather it be due to sloppiness than blinders as the former is more fixable.

Also he didn’t seem to take a world of pride in his defense, which is never a good sign for a prospect you are banking on to become good defensively. I’d say he’s a major mystery box on this end. Even DX doesn’t take a stance on his defense in their scouting report, only noting that he has excellent potential without commenting either way on where he is now.

Overall it’s hard to know what to expect. I don’t believe he has as much risk of sliding the same way that Marquis Teague or Andrew Harrison did, as his tools are so universally strong across the board and his instincts appear competent enough such that I can’t envision giving up hope on him so early. I’d say even if he disappoints he has a strong chance of remaining in the lottery. But the reason why I didn’t list him in my top 5 most intriguing prospects is confirmed by his Hoop Summit performance: I don’t see the extreme level of upside that makes him worth the #1 pick at the deepest position in the NBA. Sure, he can become a top 5 NBA PG if he develops well enough, but what’s his ticket to the top 2? He doesn’t have crazy explosiveness, he doesn’t have any super skills or feel, he’s just a toolsy guy who does PG things well enough to be an appealing prospect. I don’t get the same sense of boundless upside that I got from watching Dante Exum’s signature performance vs. Spain.

I feel that after his freshman season, best case he looks like a toolsier Elfrid Payton. That is good, since Payton went 10th in a deeper draft and I liked the pick. In a thinner draft, that puts Mudiay in the conversation for #1 if neither Towns nor Okafor shines. Even if he doesn’t hit his upside he has a strong chance of ending up in the top 5 of my final big board. I suspect I’ll like him alright enough, but without a clear scenario where I truly love him as a prospect I’m marginally more excited for a handful of other freshmen. Best guess is that he ends up somewhere in the 3-10 range on my final big board, although he probably has a better shot of actually getting picked #1 than he does of ranking #1 according to me.

One last note– I don’t think it’s great that he is going to play for Larry Brown. Larry Brown to me is a dinosaur, in that he was probably awesome like 65 million years ago but is obsolete these days and may as well be extinct. His hatred of 3 point shots goes to show how stubbornly unsharp he is (check SMU 3PA’s vs 3PA allowed). He was a great hire for SMU since he quickly attracted enough talent to revitalize the program, and most college basketball coaches aren’t sharp minds anyway. But let’s not act like he’s going to teach Mudiay the right way to play basketball (although limiting his 3PA may not be the worst thing in the world for him).

Other Prospects At The Hoop Summit:
-The two prospects who guarded him the most were Stanley Johnson and Kelly Oubre. Johnson is quick for a prospect of his size, but I think asking him to stay in front of Mudiay was a bit too much as he had a hard time cutting off his drives. Also Johnson struggled to create off the dribble vs. the world zone. It could easily have just been a bad game, as it seems like it was a bad matchup for Johnson on a number of levels. But it woulda been nice if he did more to stand out.

-Oubre on the other hand showed awesome quicks as he seemingly cut off Mudiay’s drives at will. Literally every time Mudiay crossed paths with Oubre he had a bad time (7:08, 10:54, 22:35, 27:50, 52:38). Also Oubre’s block on Trey Lyles was pretty awesome (1:24:45). DraftExpress thinks Oubre has questionable defensive fundamentals, and I’m not yet ready to say that they are wrong but I’m starting to question their questions. Also from my mix tape studying Oubre might be the most explosive guy on the floor and he finished with 3 assists and 1 turnover, so he’s checking off all of the boxes for me. It’s possible that he’s like Wiggins but slightly less athletic and way better at basketball. Again, maybe just a good game/good matchup but my intrigue is growing.

-Jahlil Okafor is kind of a black hole. His final box score looks alright if you focus on the 14 points and 10 rebounds, but 0 assists and 4 turnovers are less impressive. Historically his assist stats are not good, so I hope he’s not just a bigger Jabari (which is an astute comparison that was made in the comment section of my prior post). The good news is that he showed some quick feet to stay in front of Mudiay twice in a row (1:27:15) which can somewhat mitigate his lack of rim protection.

-Tyus Jones is like 90% to be a boss. He might be my favorite college player in this class. He is small and lacks elite athleticism however, so this places a damper on his ability to have high NBA draft stock.

-Justise Winslow had a good game, although it was mostly from scoring points in transition, finishing a nifty lob from Jones, and hitting a buzzer beating 3 to end the 1st half. So I don’t think he proved he can fit in offensively at higher levels, he just had a good game. I still like him and remain hopeful for his Duke performance.

-Myles Turner was there but I believe he was combatting an injury that prevented him from shining. Based on his profile he seems to have at least some #1 overall equity, although he carries a slippery raw label which to me implies that he is bad at converting his physical strengths into production.

-Trey Lyles is completely meh to me. As far as I can tell he racks up points and rebounds without actually doing anything that will be exceptionally useful at the NBA level.

-Karl Towns had a disappointing game. 17 minutes, 6 points, 0 assists, 4 turnovers, 4 fouls. If he has too many games like this at Kentucky he’s not going #1. But he did have a great block + rebound + outlet pass sequence at 8:22 that stood out to me.

-Cliff Alexander has a small slice of #1 equity, with the emphasis on small. He has a great PF body and is an explosive athlete, but he appears to have a center skill level which places a damper on his upside. He didn’t do too much this game, although he had an impressive block on Mudiay and a couple of tough goaltending calls went against him.

If I had to guess who would end up #1 on my big board among the players in the game, my rankings go Towns > Okafor > Oubre > Johnson > Turner > Winslow > Mudiay > Alexander > Jones. It’s the thinnest of thin slice predictions, so these rankings may look totally bananas a year from now. But I’m addicted to making predictions, so I may as well give it a whirl.