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Parsing Through The NCAA Prospects: Part 3

25 Wednesday Jun 2014

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Part 1

Part 2

Rim creation stats that help fuel my skepticism toward a handful of prospects in this post

PJ Hairston
Hairston is a bit of an enigma statistically, as Kevin Pelton’s WARP formula rates him as the #7 NCAA prospect where’s Layne Vashro’s EWP model rates him as a 2nd rounder.  The fact of the matter is that he posted impressive box score stats as a sophomore at UNC, but the EWP model has doubts about his ability to translate based on his reliance on jump shooting.  I think both sides of the equation have merit.

Hairston only made 34.9% of college 3’s (possibly due to poor variance as a freshman), so for a player who doesn’t offer much in the way of handling, athleticism, speed, or passing, it’s kind of frightening how jumper dependent he is.  But he shot 80% on FT’s in college (87% in the D-League) and made 35.8% of 3’s in the D-League (41.8% on 1+ days’ rest- Hairston badly struggled with back to backs).  Overall I feel signs point toward his shot being rather good if not elite.  What gives him appeal is the volume of 3 pointers that he got off due to his quick trigger and deep range.  Hairston attempted 11.3 3’s per 40 minutes, which is better than any recent 1st rounders outside of Steph Curry who attempted around 12 3PA per 40 as a sophomore and junior.  Troy Daniels attempted 12.3 3PA/40 at VCU and he literally offers zero value other than shooting.  Seeing that Morey liked Daniels enough to add him to the playoff roster and allow McHale to play him, I feel compelled to give some extra attention to outlier 3PA rates.

Outside of shooting, Hairston doesn’t have any stand out strengths, but he does do enough to add some balance to his game.  He’s a good offensive rebounder, and he had a good assist:TOV ratio (1.18) as a UNC sophomore even though his assist rate cratered in the D-League.  He has good size, length, and strength for a SG as well as passable quicks and athleticism.  He also posted a good 3.0% steal rate, which implies that he has the instincts to be above average as a defensive wing.  In watching him I’m not sure his focus and awareness are quite enough to make him a stopper, and he likely is an underdog to become above average.  But the possibility is there nevertheless to give him appeal as a 3 + D prospect.

In short PJ Hairston is Troy Daniels with superior physical tools, rim finishing, passing, rebounding, and defensive potential.  If Morey was enamored enough with Daniels to let him anywhere near the playoff rotation as a rookie, it’s worth wondering how he feels about Hairston who can get off a ton of 3’s without being complete deadweight otherwise.  Not that Morey is the best drafter in the world, as he did take Marcus Morris over Kawhi Leonard 14th overall as recently as 3 years ago.  But I nevertheless like Hairston anywhere in the 20’s.

Gary Harris
Harris is an incredibly bland prospect, and I’m not sure why he’s still getting hyped as a lottery pick after his measurements.  His 8’0″ standing reach is appalling, although in his defense Vashro has informed me that height and length in tandem are more predictive than reach.  His 6’4.5″ height with a 6’6.75″ wingspan makes him seem a bit more hopeful, but without plus athleticism or quicks it’s hard to see him translating his good college defense into good defense of NBA SG’s.  He has good strength but when all of his other tools are below average, it’s hard to see him thriving.  Further he badly struggled to get to the rim in the half-court, and doesn’t nearly have the floor general skills to run an NBA offense.

So he’s basically a 3 + D combo guard with mediocre tools, and he obviously lacks the skill to run an offense.  I could see him finding a niche as a Mario Chalmers type who plays with bigger wings who have the skill to run the offense, which is a perfectly useful player.  It’s just not a level of upside that justifies a top 20 pick.

James Young
I want to like James Young.  He was the one Kentucky player who could score against lengthy, athletic defenses and he somehow showed up to a playoff game with Rihanna.  But I have a hard time getting too optimistic.  He seems to care about offense quite a bit more than defense, as he posted disappointing steal and block rates given his physical tools (especially his 7’0″ wingspan).  He didn’t do a great job of containing penetration either– he’s still young but his defense needs work.

Offensively his length enables him to hit tough, contested shots, as he scored 20+ points in all 3 matchups vs LSU as well as in the championship game vs. UConn.  These teams offered the closest approximation of NBA length and athleticism on Kentucky’s schedule, and they gave the Harrisons and especially Randle big time issues offensively.  I believe his 35% 3’s and 70% FT’s underrate his upside as a shooter since he’s exceptionally young and his form looks good.  But he’s still not quite an elite shooter and what else is there to like?  His assist:turnover ratio is solid.  But he struggles defensively, is a mediocre rebounder, and doesn’t have the handles or burst to regularly get to the rim.  Even if his shot develops exceptionally well, he still needs other skills to become a good NBA player and it’s not the most likely parlay that he overcomes enough weaknesses to become a good starter.

I still take him in round 1 since he’s so young, but I think he’s a bit overrated as a top 20 pick.

Mitch McGary
The Jusuf Nurkic of the NCAA.  McGary doesn’t have great length or athleticism, but makes a defensive impact his own way with strength, quick feet, and good instincts to rack up steals.  He’s a beast on the glass and a solid finisher as well.  The downside is that he missed most of this past season with back issues, and he’s also old for a sophomore as he is already 22.  For these reasons I rate him considerably lower than Nurkic, but I neverthless like him as a late 1st flier.

TJ Warren
I don’t even know what to think here.  He is an unathletic SF who thrives scoring inside the arc.  Is that ever going to be useful in the NBA?  I don’t know.  He has a ridiculous floater, he moves well off the ball, and he had a good steal rate so maybe he makes it all work in his own funky way.  But a wing who is neither an elite athlete, defensive prospect, passer, or shooter seems to have limited upside so he’s a fringe 1st rounder to me.

Glenn Robinson
GR3 is another player who I tried to get into but perceive as a likely disappointment.  He uses his leaping ability to be a scintillating rim finisher, converting 83% (!) of his rim attempts as a sophomore.  His 3 point shot is a work in progress but it’s not hopeless, and he also has the tools to be a good defensive player which gives him the makings of a compelling flier.  But whenever I watch him I get the sense that he lacks the feel for the game on to become a genuinely good player on either end of the floor.  He also isn’t much of a rebounder considering that he played PF for Michigan.  He’s a fringe 1st rounder.

Shabazz Napier
Everybody loves Shabazz after he carried UConn to an unlikely title run as a 7 seed.  He hit an endless stream of off the dribble 3’s to enable UConn’s ugly offense to work well enough to beat a number of touch matchups, and he deserves all the credit in the world for making Kevin Ollie a sought after NBA coach.

As an NBA prospect, my feelings toward him are mixed.  He grades as a solid statistical prospect, and I quite like him as a 3 + D PG paired with a bigger PG to run the offense and defend the wing.  But he’s also tiny, unathletic, old, and not an elite playmaker at the deepest position in the league.  It seems unlikely that he ever becomes a top 15 PG in the NBA since he’s in a mold lacking upside.  While he can become useful anyway, I have a hard time getting excited about the thought of taking him in round 1 with so many higher upside PG’s in the class.

Semaj Christon
Speaking of PG’s with more upside than Bazz, Semaj Christon is one of them.  He is not loved by statistical models, but he is the one player where I heavily favor scouting over stats.  Two problems with taking his stats at face value:

1) He was forced to share PG duties with Dee Davis depressing his assist rate
2) Xavier played a non-gambly defense.  He posted a solid 2.3% steal rate to lead the team, but it doesn’t do service to his tools and defensive potential.

He’s old for a sophomore as he turns 22 right at the start of his rookie season, so I wouldn’t say he is loaded with upside.  He still has plenty of shortcomings that inhibit him as a prospect such as his shooting, decision making, and overall skill level.  But he also has sneaky upside that is undetected by statistical models, so I like him as a late 1st or early 2nd flier.  I can see him becoming an Eric Bledsoe lite.

Doug McDermott
The subject of my first post on the blog, and my feelings still have not changed. I picked McDermott as my first topic to write about because he is so straightforward– he is a one dimensional scorer with awful tools, and limited handling and passing ability. He is a great shooter and moves well off the ball, but his interior scoring has translation risk and there’s not enough else to like to offer any compelling form of upside.

In McDermott’s defense I will note that he wasn’t quite as bad defensively in college as his steals and blocks suggested. Rodney Hood got blown by a fair bit more frequently, to offer an example of worse defense. McDermott was at least smart enough to know when he was facing off with a mismatch and give enough space to not get blown by. This is far less important than his poor physical tools and non-existent defensive playmaking ability, but it does give him a glimmer of hope for being a stomachable level of bad.

I stand by my conclusion that he’s not a 1st round talent. As far as I can tell the only reason why he’s in the discussion for a lottery pick is because he scored a boatload of points, even though the NCAA scoring leaderboard is littered with guys who amounted to absolutely nothing in the NBA. While he is a better shooter and may not be quite as tragic of a bust as Adam Morrison, he is a roughly similar prospect in that they are both one dimensional scorers with poor tools. It would amuse me to no end to see Jordan refuse to learn from his Morrison mistake and take McDermott 9th overall. Absolute best case for McDermott is something along the lines of a SF version of JJ Redick.

Kentucky’s Luck Runs Out vs. UConn

08 Tuesday Apr 2014

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After eking out four close wins against quality competition, UK finally fell into a first half deficit that they couldn’t entirely overcome, as they lost to UConn 60-54.  It was an interesting tourney run for the Wildcats, and I would now like to comb through the details to point out what changed from the regular season to the postseason that propelled them this far.  They started playing well in the SEC tournament, so I will split each player’s stats per 40 minutes into the 9 SEC/NCAA tourney games vs their regular season performance.  Note that they tended to both run into better defenses and play at a slower pace down the stretch, so naturally everybody will have rosier regular season per 40 minute stats.

Willie Cauley-Stein

Season PTS eFG% REB AST STL BLK TOV
Regular 12.0 60.1% 10.2 1.2 1.8 4.6 1.6
Post 8.0 55.0% 10.3 0.7 3.0 6.0 0.3

Cauley-Stein’s postseason sample is too small to be particularly meaningful, but he did rack up a boatload of steals and blocks and only turned it over once in 120 minutes of play. More notable is how the UK defense struggled without him.  They did not perform at a high level vs. any of Louisville, Michigan, Wisconsin, or UConn, and their adjusted defensive rating dropped to 41st in the country as per kenpom.com.  Last year’s UK team bottomed out after the Noel injury and finished with the 129th defense, but among Calipari’s successful teams this is his worst defense that he has assembled.  From 2006-2012 all of his defenses finished top 15, and the 2010-11 UK team was the only iteration that was not top 9.  Cal’s last defense to perform this poorly was the 2004-2005 Memphis team that missed the tournament and finished with the 43rd defense.

For all of Kentucky’s size and athleticism, they are not particularly effective at preventing opponents from scoring. This is largely why I am not exceptionally high on this year’s crop of Kentucky prospects.  Their success down the stretch did not stem from suddenly pulling things together and playing great defense: it was almost entirely derived from decreased turnover rates and timely shot making.

Julius Randle

Season PTS eFG% REB AST STL BLK TOV
Regular 20.1 52.2% 13.6 1.8 0.6 1.1 3.6
Post 17.1 43.6% 13.1 2.0 0.8 0.8 2.2

Randle’s big progression down the stretch was cutting down on his turnover rate.  I have not charted statistics for this, but my suspicion is that this largely stems from fewer post up attempts, as he often coughed the ball up in traffic.  Regardless of the precise reason, this was a significant development for UK as their offense is difficult to stop when they aren’t turning it over.  They rebounded 41.9% of their own misses, so turnovers are especially costly in comparison to missed shots.  This is a positive sign for Randle, as he needs to find a way to score without being a turnover machine to succeed as a pro.

On the other hand, Randle’s warts persist and I still struggle to get excited about the prospect of drafting him in the lottery.  He drew 3 favorable defensive matchups in the tournament, as Kansas State, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all undersized, lack shot blocking, and are vulnerable inside.  Naturally Randle posted his three highest scoring totals of the tournament vs. these three defenses.  He had his lowest scoring output vs. the long and athletic UConn defense, finishing with just 10 points on 3/7 FG.  And his lower turnover rate is somewhat diminished by the fact that it came in tandem with poor shooting from the field.  He is still prone to defensive lapses, and there are still questions about his ability to translate offensively.  While I appreciate his competitiveness and growth throughout the season, he did not make a convincing case that he will be able to score effectively enough vs. NBA defenses to justify a lotto pick.  He has enough strengths for a freshman to be worth a flier in the 15-20 range, but I have a hard time envisioning him becoming a true impact player.

James Young

Season PTS eFG% REB AST STL BLK TOV
Regular 17.7 49.3% 5.1 2.3 1.0 0.2 2.4
Post 17.6 51.6% 6.0 1.4 0.6 0.3 2.1

James Young had a solid two games in the Final Four, and his performance reinforced my perception that he is the Kentucky player who should most seamlessly translate to the NBA.  He doesn’t bully smaller competition to the extent his teammates do, and he is able to get his shots off vs. defenses of UConn’s caliber with his combination of size, length, a quick trigger, and a knack for hitting contested shots.  His increase in eFG% down the stretch was largely driven by his 3’s finally starting to fall, as he shot 33.7% from 3 in the regular season vs. 41.7% in tournament play.  His 2p% only fell off from 47.8% to 44.8% in spite of higher volume (8.0 2PA/40 vs 6.2) and tougher opposing defenses, and he finally started to make his free throws hitting 83.3% after a 67.4% regular season.

The shooting upticks are a welcome sign for Young.  His regular season shooting stats were surprisingly mediocre considering how nice his form looks, and his NBA success hinges largely on him becoming an effective shooter.  He is still only going to be 18 on draft night, and between his age, form, and ability to get shots off vs. good defenses, he has quite a bit of room to grow offensively and could become a good offensive player in the NBA.

That said, there are reasons to temper expectations.  Like his teammates, his defense is not particularly good.  He has the tools to be good on this end, but seems to lack acumen.  And in spite of his ability to translate and room to grow offensively, he did not have a particularly effective season for a one way scorer.  If his shot doesn’t develop well, he might be an Austin Rivers level flop.  Even if his shot does develop well, he may not become significantly better than Nick Young.  He is likely worth a late 1st round pick for the scoring upside, but he has plenty of bust equity as well.

Aaron Harrison

Season PTS eFG% REB AST STL BLK TOV
Regular 17.1 47.5% 4.1 2.6 1.4 0.4 2.2
Post 16.0 57.9% 2.1 1.2 1.0 0.2 1.3
Season 2PA 2P% 3PA 3p% FTA FT%
Regular 7.9 48.4% 5.1 30.6% 5.9 81.4%
Post 5.5 42.2% 6.1 48.0% 3.8 67.7%

I’m including Aaron Harrison’s shooting splits to show that there was exactly one thing he did well this postseason: make 3’s.  His increase in eFG% and decrease in assists and turnovers is rooted in the fact that he attacked less and was used as a spot up shooter more, hitting 48% of his 3’s including a plethora of clutch shots.  He earned casual fan acclaim for his timely shot making, but overall I was not impressed by his tournament showing.

I was somewhat hopeful for Harrison earlier in the year because I felt his 3P% was suffering from bad luck, and that his overall game might look quite good once his 3’s started falling.  So while it is nice for his 3’s to violently progress to the mean, it isn’t encouraging when his production otherwise fell off a cliff.  And I do not believe that his clutch shooting is indicative of any innate ability to score against tight defenses – he simply spotted up for 3’s and happened to make them.  If anything I have cooled on him after his tourney play and do not feel that he is worth a 1st round selection.  He’s a 2nd round pick in my estimation.

Andrew Harrison

Season PTS eFG% REB AST STL BLK TOV
Regular 14.1 42.0% 3.9 4.6 0.6 0.3 3.2
Post 12.4 40.6% 4.3 6.1 0.8 0.4 4.1

With his brother taking on more of a spot up role, Andrew Harrison took on a greater portion of the PG duties and it shows with significant upticks in both assists and turnovers.  I strongly dislike almost everything about his game, as his sole strength appears to be bulldozing to the rim and drawing FT’s.  He is a horrible decision maker, as evidenced by his turnover rate and eFG.  There is plenty of room for him to improve as a college player if he elects to stay, but I simply don’t see his feel for the game ever becoming good enough for him to be a useful pro.  Somebody will try to salvage him with a 2nd round flier, but I wouldn’t bother with him.

Alex Poythress

Season PTS eFG% REB AST STL BLK TOV
Regular 12.8 48.6% 10.5 1.1 0.6 1.7 2.1
Post 12.5 69.0% 7.4 0.3 0.8 1.1 2.1

Poythress was UK’s unsung hero of the tournament, as he hardly missed down the stretch.  He shot 14/15 inside the arc in UK’s final 5 games, providing significant unacknowledged value.  It does not appear he will be entering this year’s draft, as his stock has eroded with his regression this year.  I am not particularly high on him but he may become worth drafting before all is said and done.

Dakari Johnson

Season PTS eFG% REB AST STL BLK TOV
Regular 16.0 57.6% 11.7 0.8 0.5 1.9 1.7
Post 12.2 55.6% 10.2 0.9 0.9 1.3 2.0

UK’s offensive rebound expert finished the season with a staggering 17.0% ORB rate.  This exceeds his 15.0% DRB rate.  His tournament was up and down, as he had some efficient games and other quiet ones.  He is draftable but I suspect he will stay in school for his sophomore season.

Marcus Lee

It’s not even worth posting his stat lines with just 156 minutes on the season.  He had a great 24 minutes vs. the soft interior defenses of Wisconsin and Michigan, and then posted goose eggs in 6 minutes vs. UConn’s significantly tougher defense.  There’s not enough information to have much of an opinion on him at this point.