So now that the draft is complete, it is time to re-rank the prospects with new information that has come to light:

I imagine that most sharp NBA teams had 1. Towns and 2. Russell, and I agree with that.

I am all in on Justise Winslow. Even if his height was mildly disappointing and he shot poorly in workouts, there is still so so much to like about his profile. It was mostly bad GM’s that passed him up while one of my fave GM’s in Danny Ainge was trying to trade up for him every step of the way starting at #4. He has such clear two way upside with a high floor to boot, I cannot fathom that it was remotely correct for him to slide that far.

I softened my anti-Hezonja and Porzingis stance because they both do have great tools and I don’t feel strongly enough any of my 8-12 prospects to place them ahead of either. I still have my doubts about them, but there’s no reason they cannot be real good. I wish I could have stronger feelings on these two and Mudiay, but all I can do is stash the trio in between the big 4 NCAA studs and everybody else.

I dropped Kelly Oubre to 11. I believe he is underrated due to his combination of freshman stats and physical tools, but there is little that stands out about him other than his superficial appeal. He cannot create his own shot and he does not have good basketball IQ, so I have slightly tempered my expectations of him.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is the second biggest steal in the draft behind Winslow. His offensive limitations are a big concern, but his combination of physical tools and defensive acumen is so elite that they are worth stomaching. I am surprised at how many smart FO’s passed him up with non-lotto picks, but once upon a time Daryl Morey drafted Marcus Morris ahead of Kawhi Leonard so I’m sticking to my guns that RHJ slid way too far.

Myles Turner still feels bleh to me but I’m interested to see how well Frank Vogel can mitigate the limitations of his gait by playing him in the Hibbert role. I could see him having a successful career in Indiana.

It feels like no matter who I rank 22 or 23 it feels too low. I ended up placing Justin Anderson and Jerian Grant in those slots, and both are solid prospects to me. Truthfully you could rank my 13-23 tier in any order and it would seem fine to me.

RJ Hunter feels perfect at 24. I could jumble up my 5-12, 13-23, or 25-40 in any number of orders but RJ makes the perfect dividing line to bridge the gap between my top 23 and the rest.

I bumped up Terry Rozier a long way from 50 to 25. I remain unimpressed with his offensive skill set, but he does have the length and frame to guard SG’s. Further, it is possible that the Celtics can parlay his elite first step into a nice slashing game with better coaching, spacing, and skill development. I appreciate the athleticism + defense strength tandem in prospects so this pick may not be historically bad. That said, his current offensive package is highly worrisome for a 21 year old 6’2″ player, and I suspect the Celtics are being overly optimistic about his growth potential by taking him at #16. So it’s still a reach in my book.

Everything else is generally smoothened given NBA opinions. I figure this will look better than my average big board because I am not taking huge positions for no reason and am focusing on my more confident reads. So we’ll see how this works. Really don’t feel like I have much insight to offer this year other than it being comical that Winslow slid to #10 and RHJ being a possible big time steal late. All of the prospects are at least decent and I don’t think consensus is all that far off base.

Now that the draft has happened I have new info!  I know how various front offices of varying sharpness chose to expend their picks, and I’m going to critique my big board rankings based on the outcome and my sharpness predictions.

Internationals
Let’s start with internationals.  By looking at statistical projections and cross referencing them with scouting reports, I tried to make my best thin slice assessment of the international class.  I decided that the class was largely underrated due to the strong statistical profiles, and rank the internationals rather aggressively.

I pegged Dante Exum, Jusuf Nurkic, Clint Capela, Damien Inglis, Nikola Jokic, and Vasilije Micic as underrated.  All of them slid considerably lower than my big board ranking, and the quality of FO who took them was pretty much random based on my pre-draft ranking.  Micic and Capela were taken by top 3 FO’s, Nurkic and Jokic were taken by my 9th worst FO, Exum was taken the slightly above average Jazz (11th) and Inglis was taken by the slightly below average Bucks (17th).  So the quality of team that took stabs on these guys was close to random, and all of them went right about where they were slotted to go in mocks.

To make matters worse, I had Dario Saric as the lone overrated international and he was taken by my #2 GM Sam Hinkie 12th overall when I had him 23rd on my big board. My #1 FO the Spurs took Nemanja Dangubic who I didn’t bother with because his stats are so bad in the late 2nd.  My #3 FO (Houston) took Alessandro Gentile who I barely bothered with because his stats are mediocre.  Bogdan Bogdanovic who I was neutral on was taken by my #8 FO with both Inglis and Jokic on the board. And my #7 FO Toronto took Bruno Caboclo who I did not realize existed, although based on limited information seems like my type of gamble. Artem Klimenko who seemed like an OK gamble went undrafted, and Walter Tavares was taken by my #6 FO 43rd overall, which I deem to be good value.

So overall there were a lot of teams that I rated highly dipping their fingers in the international pie, but they were looking at the guys that I had not pegged as sleepers as opposed to the ones I did.  I still think this is a good class, and I still think that internationals were underdrafted.  But for better or worse I feel like I was far too aggressive in ranking international players that I never actually scouted myself or analyzed in any sort of meaningful way.

The bottom line is that the international players were a part of the draft, and I had to do my best to interpolate them with the NCAA class in spite of my lack of familiarity.  I went out on a limb trusting statistical indicators, and the early returns are that smart teams don’t completely agree with me.  I’m still happy with the draft outcome if I’m a Nuggets fan, and I do believe that it’s insane how far Clint Capela slid. But I am nevertheless feeling highly unconfident in my international hypotheses, even though I don’t think the logic that went into them was bad or anything. I was just working with a super thin slice and perhaps should have proceeded with more caution in my final ranking.

NCAA

I signed up for this to evaluate NCAA prospects, so this is where I expect to knock most of the stuff out of the park.  First let’s start with my players I had earmarked as overrated:

These are the 9 players whose hype I flatly disagreed with and wrote about in a decidedly one way tone for all or most of the season (with Jabari as the exception as I didn’t cool too much until the home stretch).  None of them were drafted by a top 10 team, 8/9 were drafted by a below average team, and 6/9 were drafted by bottom 10 teams in my draft rankings or not at all.  Honestly I can’t outright brag that I knocked all of these out of the park: for all I know Philly would have taken Wiggins over Embiid if they had the chance and I got lucky that they ended up with the #3 pick instead of #1. And I assume at least one or two of these guys will become quite a bit better than I expect and make me look semi-bad.  But I feel good about my hypotheses on all of these players, and based on the teams that pulled the trigger I have no reason to alter my opinions of any of them.

Now let’s look at the guys I ear-marked as underrated:

Once again, all above average teams picked these guys up. And the 4 guys I pegged as possible superstars all went in a row after the bad teams cleaned Parker and Wiggins off the board.

In fairness, I might have overrated Javon McCrea and Kendrick Perry who I tabbed as late 1st rounders based on statistics when they went undrafted. Isaiah Sykes went undrafted too, although he will be playing summer league for Philly which pleases me.  And I could also claim small credit for Nick Johnson who I ranked ahead 42nd (54th DX, 60th ESPN) who was scooped by Morey.

Of course I wasn’t perfect with my NCAA stuff, as a few smart teams believe I underrated some players:

So I may have underrated these guys a bit. I also may have underrated them a lot.  In my defense the top 3 guys were players who I agonized over quite a bit and never felt comfortable placing.  TJ Warren I barely scouted and honestly I had no idea where to place. I probably erred too heavily on the side of negativity with respect to his consensus ranking since I don’t believe he necessarily has a fatal flaw and he likely has his own form of upside by being so funky.

Payne was a headache for me to solve as I just couldn’t get the draft models hatred of him out of my mind. I think his passing and age are probably a bigger deal than draft narratives suggest, but I can easily see him becoming a solid role player.  If Ferry likes him, I was probably a bit too bearish in my final ranking. I had him as the #18 prospect on my first big board before I knew statistical models were a thing.

James Young was actually a player who I felt carried some subtle edges, and I quite like him as a personality and I am excited to root for him.  I just don’t get the sense it’s a priority for him to become good on defense, but that’s not a hypothesis that I insist carries a ton of weight in his draft stock.  The funny thing is that I almost posted “if I’m badly underrating one prospect, I hope it’s James Young.”  Since I’m a Celtics fan that is now super true.

Huestis I hadn’t even considered as a legit prospect because his stats were just so bad for his age.  But if Presti likes his defense enough to take him in round 1, that’s enough for me to skyrocket him up my big board. I still think his offense is so limited that it may have been a mistake anyway, but I legitimately invested about 2 seconds of thought in Huestis’s draft stock so why would I get his ranking right?

I mentioned in the prelude to my mega board that I inevitably incorrectly processed some information, and I would much rather it be on these types who I was torn both ways on than the guys I was selling as definitively overrated prospects.  I’m probably going to humblify my big board at some point in light of actual outcome, and these guys and Saric are all getting moved up the most.

Conclusions

I feel like there were plenty of weaknesses in my analysis.  My hyper extrapolation of internationals may have been a fool’s errand.  I don’t regret trying, and I’m still interested to see how my rankings actually look when all is said and done.  But without my actual scouting the rankings are obviously worth far less.

As for everything else, I think my rankings from 12 and onward are going to be shaky. The NCAA talent curve became somewhat flat outside of the top 10, and even though I feel somewhat validated that GM’s I like took my sleepers, players like McDaniels, Dinwiddie, Stokes, etc don’t have crazy high upside that make it a big time mistake to take the players I liked less over them.

I would say I probably veered too far from consensus and perhaps suffered from information overload with all of the statistical modeling that I referenced. I’m OK with that, I need to overdose on information before I learn how to interpret it with maximum efficiency.

In summation: I’d say I took some risks that will eventually enhance my perception, but probably made the overall quality of my mega board weaker.  I’m most happy that the bold stances I took for/against NCAA prospects strongly aligned with the quality of team that drafted them, as I believe that is a strong early check mark in favor of the meat of my analysis.  Unfortunately my lower confidence rankings that I went overboard on are going to be judged just the same, so my mega board overall likely lacks the edge over DX/ESPN/actual outcome that I was hoping for.  That’s OK, I may fail to meet the technical definition of my goals, but I feel like I refined my process quite well overall and it will be even better next year.

Well that was interesting. I feel like some of my more confident reads I had went as expected, some of my fuzzy reads were completely off the mark, and overall I think last night reinforced how deeply subjective the draft can be.

I think grading the draft is completely silly, and it’s hilarious for me to read this morning that Chad Ford gave the Rockets a C-. Yeah Chad, you definitely have a world of insight that Daryl Morey lacks, so you tell him how badly he screwed up! In fairness to Ford he’s required to do this as part of his job and he needs to stand by his rankings, but it’s just silly. Personally I accept my lack of expertise, so for me this is a two way street. For every pick I have opinions on how they may be questioned as well how they may call my rankings into question.  I’m going to go down my ranking predicting sharpest to least sharp to share my thoughts on the draft:

1. San Antonio Spurs
30. Kyle Anderson
Well, this makes sense.  The team that values ball movement takes an awesome passer who grades well analytically. I imagine Anderson is going to play a similar role to Boris Diaw, and I love this for his odds to succeed as a pro.

2. Philadelphia 76ers
3. Joel Embiid
12. Dario Saric
32. KJ McDaniels39. Jerami Grant
52. Vasilije Micic
54. Nemanja Dangubic
58. Jordan McRae

This was the draft I was most looking forward to as I couldn’t wait to compare notes with Hinkie and his copious picks.  He delivered in both directions, as three of his picks were comfortably the best player available on my board (Embiid, McDaniels, Micic) and the rest were varying levels of surprises to me.

I ranked Dario Saric 23rd on my big board, Hinkie took him 12th. If I do a post draft big board, I’m skyrocketing Saric up my board.  Frankly I never even watched him and never felt exceptionally confident in my ranking of him.  He didn’t sound too attractive based on stats and his physical profile, but maybe if I watched film I’d feel differently.  I can see how his virtuoso passing ability is not fully captured by stats, and how he may translate well to a less ball dominant role.  It should be noted there wasn’t a clear value and fit for Philly in this slot: my top players were centers blocked by Embiid/Noel and PG’s blocked by MCW, and then my next best players were Inglis and KJ McDaniels who he got in round 2 anyway.  There really wasn’t an obvious slam dunk and Hinkie may have decided to err on the side of a player he can stash and use as a trade asset down the line.  I’m definitely elevating my perception of Saric regardless though, ranking him 23rd was NOT a high confidence ranking.

Jerami Grant I ranked 38th on my final big board and he went 39th.  He’s such a weird player I never really knew where to rank him.  Ultimately I decided to just fade his skill level and stick him 38th, but his tools are great, he allegedly has defended well man to man in the past, and his stats aren’t bad.  I’m sure Hinkie invested quite a bit more thought into Grant than I have and it’s almost certainly better value than my board would indicate, even though I think his lack of skill level remains a big concern.

Dangubic and McRae are interested as late round fliers, because they are Hinkie going completely against the stats.  I can see how McRae is underrated– he had a poor steal rate which vastly understates the role he played in Tennessee’s defense that was top 20 in spite of having no rim protecting bigs.  I should have had him somewhere higher on my board.  Dangubic is an international who has poor stats, but they rolled the dice anyway. These picks could have been Hinkie throwing his scouts a bone, but he may genuinely like them too. If nothing else I now know he’s willing to defy stat models late in round 2.

3. Houston Rockets
25. Clint Capela
42. Nick Johnson
I absolutely love Morey’s draft.  I had Capela ranked 6th on my big board, which is a rather bold shot in the dark I was starting to doubt when smart GM’s kept passing on him.  But Morey being the one to pull the trigger when Capela can’t play with Dwight Howard pleases me. I maybe shouldn’t have been so bold as to rank Capela ahead of Parker and Wiggins, but he’s in a mold where it’s so so easy to become valuable he’s a top 10 prospect to me in this draft no matter what.

In round 2 Morey took my 42nd prospect at 42nd overall, and I love the pick. Johnson is a great fit next to James Harden, as Harden can run the offense from SG and Johnson gives them another Beverley-esque 3 + D type.  I definitely liked Johnson more than my 42nd ranking would indicate, so I think this illuminates that I probably didn’t even succeed at ranking the non-lotto prospects in an order that my intuition agrees with.

4. Boston Celtics
6. Marcus Smart
17. James Young

To me Marcus Smart was the only defensible choice at 6th overall, and Ainge smashed that one.  That’s 3 years in a row that the Celtics have taken my top choice with their top pick (Smart, Olynyk, Sullinger).

James Young feels like a Fab Melo-ish follow up to the Sullinger pick, but not quite as bad. I hate that the Celtics passed up Capela at 17, but Ainge tends to not go international in drafts so I can’t say I’m surprised. Based on NCAA players that fit, I would have taken KJ McDaniels but I feel that taking Young ahead of him is somewhat defensible. I have noted multiple times that I think there are hidden edges in Young: I think he’s going to become a better shooter than his stats indicated and he was the UK player who lit up tough defenses.  I ranked him low because I feel like he’s going to be a one way player, and I think Ainge is making a statement that he thinks Young can play both ways. I think Young has a chance to become average or better defensively, and playing for Brad Stevens definitely helps his odds. I still feel like this pick isn’t great value, but Ainge liking Young makes me like him a bit more.

5. Oklahoma City
21. Mitch McGary
29. Josh Huestis

I like the McGary pick.  I only ranked him 25th on my big board which has him as a slight reach, but he was a prospect I could have easily been coerced into ranking higher.  So this is probably fail to properly rank my intuition again.

The Huestis pick is a surprise to me. I stashed him in the 81-100 range but honestly gave zero thought to him because he’s old and appears to be a zero offensively. But he’s toolsy and apparently great defensively, and it sounds like he did well at Portsmouth.  I’m skyrocketing Huestis up my board if Presti likes him in round 1, but I still feel like he’s so limited offensively for a wing that this is a questionable pick.

6. Atlanta
15. Adreian Payne
43. Walter Tavares
48. Lamar Patterson

I had Payne 18th on my first big board and closed with him 33rd on my big board. The fact that Danny Ferry likes him 15th overall makes me feel like I may have been closer on my first try and moved away from the truth due to information overload.  Payne was definitely one of the toughest players for me to rank.  I have a hard time bashing investments in tall guys who can shoot, especially since Payne has the tools to be decent defensively. But I still think the value is questionable nevertheless– if nothing else Atlanta seems to be capping their upside here.  I’m interested to see how Payne pans out.

Tavares is just a good pick in the mid-2nd.  Patterson is a bit surprising, he doesn’t seem to have the physical tools to guard SG’s but he does have a bit of shake and a nice offensive skill level.  I ranked him 54th so this is roughly neutral value to me, and I could see how I underrated LPatt.  Of course it’s also possible that the Hawks are underrating the predictive power of age with these picks.

7. Toronto
20. Bruno Caboclo
37. DeAndre Daniels

The NBA Draft: where Bruno Caboclo happens.  I didn’t bother to try to rank him because I could find zero information on him. I think it’s pretty crazy that Ujiri thought Caboclo is so so good that he couldn’t risk having him sniped before round 2. If he’s 6’9″ with a 7’7″ wingspan, athletic, and can shoot at the age of 18 then I suppose I see his point.  I’m not going to question Masai until I see Bruno play because it doesn’t sound like somebody who has a limit to his ceiling. I just don’t understand how he went so undetected in spite of being such a freak AND being able to shoot. My mind is forever blown by this pick.

The DeAndre Daniels pick is a shock to me. I ranked him 70th on my big board because he never passes, and unless you’re a rim protecting center this is a big turn off to me. He’s also 22 and didn’t quite shine enough to feel like he has upside in spite of his lack of passing. I’m a bit less bearish on him if Masai likes him, but I can’t help but feel he could have done better.

8. Phoenix
14. TJ Warren
18. Tyler Ennis
27. Bogdan Bogdanovic
50. Alec Brown

The jury is still out on Ryan McDonough as a drafter, and I feel mixed about these picks.  The TJ Warren pick feels meh to me but again I may have underrated him at 28th overall.  He’s just a completely bizarre prospect and I put all of 5 minutes into solving his draft ranking, so why should I be confident.  I obviously love the Ennis pick, especially if they now package one of Dragic or Bledsoe for Love.  Bogdan Bogdanovic’s big statistical weakness is 2p%, and if Jeff Hornacek can get him a higher quality of shots that’s a pick that can pan out. I had him as a slight reach but I love the fit with Hornacek (although Inglis or Jokic would have been cooler).  And Alec Brown is an investment in a tall shooter at a low price, so can’t complain there.  Overall I feel like Phoenix had a solid draft, but they didn’t quite inspire confidence that McDonough is en route to becoming a top top drafting GM.

10. Detroit
38. Spencer Dinwiddie
Stan Van Gundy is a smart coach and he took a smart player who I have as great value.  Love this pick, I think Dinwiddie is going to carve himself out a career as a useful role player for SVG.

11. Utah
5. Dante Exum
23. Rodney Hood
When you get Dante Exum 5th overall, it hardly matters who you take 23rd. I’m exuberant if I’m a Jazz fan.  But I’m pretty disappointed in Utah for taking Hood 23rd overall. I never even understood his draft hype. I’m guessing it’s great offensive skill set for a role player, and the tools to be alright defensively which is attainable since he has good intangibles? I don’t know. He doesn’t have crazy offensive upside and I think he’s clueless and hopeless defensively. Hood may do enough offensively to make this pick look alright, but I’m not compromising on this one: he’s going to be bad defensively and he’s not going to be a star offensively and there is no way he belongs in round 1.

13. Memphis
22. Jordan Adams
35. Jarnell Stokes

I may have underestimated Memphis ranking them just 13th, as John Hollinger seems to have them on the analytics wagon. I would have taken Kyle Anderson before Jordan Adams, but this was still a good spot to gamble on Adams anyway.  I completely love the Stokes pick and think that he’s going to carve out a solid career in the league as a role player.

15. Orlando
4. Aaron Gordon
10. Elfrid Payton
56. Roy Devyn Marble

I was a bit surprised to see the Magic take Gordon over Smart and Exum, but it all made sense when they snagged Payton at 10th overall. I don’t love Hennigan moving up for Payton since Ennis would have been a perfectly fine fall back plan (and probably a better fit since Oladipo + Gordon give them a great baseline of perimeter defense), but it’s clear that he has a plan and it’s to invest in defense. You can do quite a bit worse than that plan. They will likely need to add shooting down the road, but I like loading up with great defensive perimeter players and dealing with the rest later. Devyn Marble was a good late flier too, I like this draft for Orlando.

17. Milwaukee
2. Jabari Parker
31. Damien Inglis
36. Johnny O’Bryant

Well the Bucks lived up to their middle of the road ranking by making two picks I hate and one pick I love. I get why they made the Jabari pick but I really feel like he’s Glenn Robinson all over again for the Bucks.  They then redeemed themselves by picking Inglis who I love, and then closed on a meh note with Johnny O’Bryant.  Johnny O is somebody who I possibly underrate because he has a lot of fat to his offensive game that can be trimmed, but I’m just not sure what the selling point for him going early round 2 is.

18. Chicago Bulls
11. Doug McDermott
49. Cameron Bairstow

The Bulls lost their minds and I may have overrated them at #18 on my draft predictions. Flipping picks 16 + 19 for McDermott is a classic case of overrating fit/need, as the Bulls badly need shooting + scoring and got the highest rated shooter and scorer at whatever cost it took. The trouble is that in the process they completely disregarded EV, and missed out on players who may have been able to make a bigger impact for them. One could argue that McDermott’s defense can be hidden in Chicago, but at the same time he’s not going to be a panacea for their offense. This deal may not look terrible in retrospect if McDermott can develop into as good of a pro as JJ Redick did, but to me the upside is just not there and there is quite a bit of risk. If I’m a Bulls fan I’m sorely disappointed with their draft.

19. Miami
24. Shabazz Napier

They took the guy that LeBron wanted. Napier makes sense for them because he can space the floor and pairs well with LeBron, and they need to optimize for the scenario where LeBron stays as opposed to finding their next franchise cornerstone. Everything hinges on LeBron, and I don’t think the Napier pick is bad at all bearing that in mind.

21. LA Clippers
28. CJ Wilcox

I ranked the Clippers as a bottom 10 drafting team due to a lack of faith in Doc Rivers the GM, and he validated my ranking by spewing big time on Wilcox. He already took a jump shooter in the late 1st last year who failed to translate as a rookie (Reggie Bullock), and Wilcox is a much less attractive overall prospect. I assume this is a win now move, although I am skeptical of Wilcox’s ability to aid a team in winning ever. At least the Clippers still have CP3 and Blake I suppose.

22. Denver Nuggets
16. Jusuf Nurkic
19. Gary Harris
41. Nikola Jokic

The Nuggets were a team I was unsure of where to rank, and they came out and massively overperformed my expectation. Converting the 11th pick into Nurkic and Harris is amazing since I would have been fond of just keeping the pick and using it on Nurk. I’m lukewarm on Harris but he’s fine at 19th overall when that pick was basically a freeroll anyway.  And there’s no way that Jokic is a bad gamble in round 2. I’m thrilled as a Nuggets fan, and while I’m not suddenly convinced that the Nuggets are super pro at drafting I am going to have higher expectations for them next year.

23. Sacramento
8. Nik Stauskas

This is what their crowd sourcing came up with.  I suppose it could have been worse. I have Stauskas as a slight reach, but I like him and wouldn’t be surprised if he provides a happy return on the pick. Of course he could also be the next Jimmer Fredette. He’s another guy I like but struggle to pinpoint, but I am rooting for him nevertheless.

24. LA Lakers
7. Julius Randle
46. Jordan Clarkson

I expected the Lakers to be bad, and they reached for one of my least favorite prospects in the draft. No need to question my opinion of Randle for this– I watched him religiously, I stand by everything I have said, and I laugh at the Lakers for taking him 7th overall. Vonleh would have been a much better pick.

Clarkson is fine 46th overall.  Doesn’t really move the needle either way for me.

25. Cleveland
1. Andrew Wiggins
33. Joe Harris

I dislike both of these picks for Cleveland. In fairness I think at least taking Wiggins over Parker was the right move, but I would have taken Embiid or traded down.

Joe Harris is somebody whose appeal I don’t really get. I think I may have underrated him leaving him out of my top 80. If he can play defense then he might have a career in the NBA. But he doesn’t seem to have all that much upside so I think he was definitely a reach early in round 2.

26. New Orleans
47. Russ Smith

I like Russdiculous, and I like him at 47th overall, but I don’t think it was a great idea to trade Pierre Jackson for him.  New Orleans should maybe take Hinkie off of their speed dial.

27. Charlotte
9. Noah Vonleh
26. PJ Hairston
45. Dwight Powell
55. Semaj Christon

I’m fairly accustomed to laughing at the Hornets after the draft, but things might be changing in their front office. I actually like all 4 of their picks. Vonleh I’m not high on but was likely the correct pick at 9th overall.  Hairston, Powell, and Christon were all good values at their respective slots and players I generally like. I probably slightly overrated Christon on my final big board at 32nd, but still this draft inspires a ton of optimism for me if I am a Hornets fan.

28. New York
34. Cleanthony Early
51. Thanasis Antetokounmpo
57. Louis Labyrie

I expected Phil Jackson to be bad, and he delivered taking one of the players who I feel is completely overrated in Early. Antetokounmpo pick is fine and I don’t know anything about Labyrie.  But he lost the draft by wasting the best asset in the Tyson Chandler trade on somebody who has exceptionally low upside.

29. Minnesota Timberwolves
13. Zach LaVine
40. Glenn Robinson
53. Alessandro Gentile

I rated Minnesota fairly low as I assume Flip Saunders has no idea what he’s doing, and like Phil Jackson he delivered in a big way. Zach LaVine at #13 overall very well may be the worst pick of the draft. Flip did partially redeem himself with GR3 in round 2 and the Gentile pick is possibly OK too.  But he blew their one good asset, and that’s why Love is leaving and it’s why Minnesota deserves it.

30. Brooklyn Nets
44. Markel Brown
59. Xavier Thames
60. Cory Jefferson

I have Billy King as the worst GM in the league because everything he ever does exudes a lack of cluefulness.  Unfortunately, he didn’t have a good pick last night (or ever because he traded them all), but we did get to see him select a handful of 2nd rounders.  I had them all as slight reaches, it seems that King just wants to take old guys who might help right away. They won’t help right away and probably not ever.

So before the draft happens, I wanted to publish my rankings 1-30 of each front office based on how well I anticipate they will draft. I base this on a number of factors outside of historical draft record, and frankly I’m straight up guessing at a number of junctures here. I’m sure many will have questions and objections, but the main point is that this will be a possibly fun reference to compare notes after the draft and I just want to get this on the record ahead of time.

1. San Antonio
2. Philadelphia
3. Houston
4. Boston
5. Oklahoma City
6. Atlanta
7. Toronto
8. Phoenix
9. Indiana
10. Detroit
11. Utah
12. Portland
13. Memphis
14. Dallas
15. Orlando
16. Washington
17. Milwaukee
18. Chicago
19. Miami
20. Golden State
21. LA Clippers
22. Denver
23. Sacramento
24. LA Lakers
25. Cleveland
26. New Orleans
27. Charlotte
28. New York
29. Minnesota
30. Brooklyn

South
1 Florida
16 Albany

8 Colorado
9 Pittsburgh

In spite of being one of the best teams in the country, Florida doesn’t have much in the way of prospects. They are led by a great senior class and Patric Young, Scottie Wilbekin, and Casey Prather all have shots of latching on to NBA rosters. But Young is the only draftable one of the bunch and barely at that.  Florida achieves greatness with experience, coaching, and teamwork moreso than NBA talent.

After losing Spencer Dinwiddie to an ACL injury, Colorado became a pretty weak basketball team and they really don’t belong in the tourney. But sophomore Josh Scott is having a good year nevertheless, and might get drafted whenever he decides to leave Colorado. The strongest prospect of this quartet is Lamar Patterson of Pittsburgh. He is a 5th year senior who project to go in round 2 this year. While he isn’t particularly toolsy, he is a skilled wing who shoots, passes, and rebounds well.

4 UCLA
13 Tulsa

5 VCU
12 Stephen F Austin

UCLA boasts 3 solidly draftable NBA prospects in Kyle Anderson, Jordan Adams, and Zach LaVine. While Zach LaVine received the majority of the hype, Kyle Anderson is the gem of the bunch as he is a large and skilled wing who runs the UCLA offense with a tremendous feel for the game. He is having an excellent year and may rise up boards circa draft time. Jordan Adams is likely UCLA’s most unheralded prospect, as he posts staggering stats for somebody who is still only 19 years old. He has athletic limitations but the man is skilled and merits more 1st round consideration than he has fetched thus far. Do not be deceived by Tulsa’s seed, they can play defense and will give the UCLA prospects a real test.

VCU has one shiny object, which is junior Briante Weber. He is an athletic PG capable of highlight reel dunks, and also has a completely absurd steal rate that will be sure to break predictive models. VCU’s defense is centered on their full court press which is tops in the country in forcing turnovers. Once the press is beaten, they do not pose much of a challenge in terms of shot prevention. I actually beileve that Tulsa’s defense is going to be a better litmus test for the UCLA player NBA prospects than the VCU defense, even though the VCU defense is rated higher.

6 Ohio State
11 Dayton

3 Syracuse
14 Western Michigan

Ohio State is led by senior Aaron Craft and junior LaQuinton Ross, who qualify as prospects loosely speaking. I would not draft them, however. Dayton is prospectless.

Syracuse has expected lottery pick Tyler Ennis. You can either watch him play well vs Ohio State’s great defense or poorly vs Dayton and Western Michigan’s mediocre defense. This Syracuse team has a special talent at playing to the level of opposing defenses. Syracuse also boasts impressive putback dunker Jerami Grant as their other prospect who projects to go in round 1, although I believe he is overrated. CJ Fair is also part of the team and some mistakenly believe him to be an NBA prospect. But he does nothing that is discernibly useful to an NBA team, so try not to get too excited if his incessant midrange jumpers happen to fall in a particular tourney game.

7 New Mexico
10 Stanford

2 Kansas
15 Eastern Kentucky

If you enjoy fringey upperclassmen prospects, New Mexico vs. Stanford is the game for you. New Mexico boasts three fringey prospects in PG Kendall Williams and big men Alex Kirk and Cameron Bairstow. Williams is the one player who should realistically be drafted of the trio. Stanford counters with big man Dwight Powell, who has an interesting blend of athleticism and skill. But he is also a senior who is not particularly efficient and he may go undrafted because of this.

Kansas has no Joel Embiid this weekend, so that means that we get a healthy dose of Andrew Wiggins taking shots. Sophomore Perry Ellis may also be drafted some day, although I do not believe he is particularly useful to NBA teams. Even though I am not a fan, Wayne Selden is the 2nd best prospect on Kansas with Embiid out. Eastern Kentucky is a fun underdog, as their defense is based on pressing and giving up wide open layups and 3’s in the event that this fails. Their rim defense is so bad that even Andrew Wiggins should be able to make a layup against them. But Wayne Selden’s issues with the press are well documented, so perhaps Eastern Kentucky can get some good bounces in generating turnovers and keep this game interesting.

The second round matchup poses a more serious test for Wiggins. Both Stanford and New Mexico have good size and solid defenses, and New Mexico is especially stingy in the paint. Will Wiggins continue to be a jumpshooter or will he ventures into the paint and finish amongst the trees?

East
1 Virginia
16 Coastal Carolina

8 Memphis
9 George Washington

This isn’t a particularly interesting region with respect to prospects. Memphis and George Washington is by far the worst 8/9 matchup. The player most closely resembling a prospect is Memphis sophomore big man Shaq Goodwin.

Virginia earned their 1 seed with elite team defense, and like Florida do not have any prospects of particular note. They are led by sophomore Malcolm Brogdon, who was non-descript both as a freshman and as a sophomore during non-conference play, and then had a huge breakout in ACC play. He is the most likely NBA prospect on the team, followed by sophomore big man Mike Tobey who played for Team USA in the FIBA u19 games and anchors their defense as their leading shotblocker.

4 Michigan State
13 Delaware

5 Cincinnati
12 Harvard

Michigan State’s feature prospect is sophomore guard Gary Harris, who does a little bit of everything and projects to be a lottery pick. They also boast Adreian Payne who is an excellent college player as a big man who hits 3’s, but before you get too excited about his NBA prospects bear in mind that he is already 23. Their unheralded prospect is Branden Dawson, as he is a SF that cannot hit 3’s. But he is strong, athletic, and brings some interesting production to the table nevertheless.

Cincinnati is led by 24 year old man Sean Kilpatrick, who is a college star. But if you are 24 and not approximately the best college player of all-time, you are probably not much of an NBA prospect.  Harvard doesn’t have any prospects of note, but they are a good and well balanced team that is a particularly strong 12 seed.  This should be a close, competitive game, even if lacking in prospects.

6 UNC
11 Providence

3 Iowa State
14 NC Central

James Michael McAdoo used to be a prospect for UNC, but then he grew up into a mediocre college player with a horrible beard.  He has had a mini-resurgence in ACC play and might find himself sneak back into the 2nd round, but I am not particularly enthused for his future.  The slightly more appealing prospect is sophomore PG Marcus Paige, who likely will stay 4 years and then get selected in the 2nd round.  Fun fact: after some strong 2nd half performances, his teammates came up with the exceptionally creative nickname of “2nd half Paige.”  Of all of the wordplay that his last name offers, they opted for the most flavorless nickname in the history of that is what they came up with.

Really the most interesting prospect of this quartet is not a player, but a coach.  Fred Hoiberg coaches Iowa State and he’s awesome at it.  He stands out as the NCAA coach with the strongest odds of becoming a good NBA coach.  If you want to tune in to see how his team plays, the game vs NC Central might actually be interesting as it is only an 8.5 pt spread.  Iowa State is led by seniors DeAndre Kane and Melvin Ejim who are a bit too old to be drafted, especially Kane who turns 25 in June.

7 UConn
10 St. Joseph’s

2 Villanova
15 Milwaukee

UConn is led by senior PG Shabazz Napier who projects to be a 2nd round pick and the best Shabazz in the NBA.  They also have an interesting project in 7 foot freshman Amida Brimah, who is a incredibly raw shotblocker.  St Joe’s is led by senior 3 point bomber Langston Galloway, who is not quite a prospect.

Villanova is another pesky team that excels with good coaching and teamwork as opposed to NBA talent, and doesn’t have much in the way of prospects.  Their most intriguing player is sophomore big man Daniel Ochefu.  He is limited offensively and turns it over far too much, but he is a good passer and an excellent rebounder and defender.  He’s worth keeping tabs on.

West
1 Arizona
16 Weber State

8 Gonzaga
9 Oklahoma State

Arizona is rife with prospects, notably their freshmen forwards Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.  Gordon gets the bulk of the hype, but Hollis-Jefferson isn’t much worse and could sneak into the 1st round.  Both are athletic SF’s who shoot poorly but launch away from midrange anyway.  Most of their value derives from their finishing and defense.  Nick Johnson is also an intriguing flier, as he also plays a large role in Arizona’s defensive dominance but is a SG stuck in a PG body so will likely end up getting picked in round 2.  I think he has decent potential to be a rotation player nevertheless, and he is quite the spectacular dunker.  Sophomore big man Kaleb Tarczewski also has some appeal as a prospect, and if you look at his stats and wonder why his block rate is so low it’s because Arizona’s guards and wings don’t let anybody get to the rim.  They take on Weber State led by senior wing Davion Berry who likely will not get drafted, but could catch on as an undrafted FA.

Marcus Smart and company take on the new look Gonzaga Bulldogs.  After perpetually being an offensive powerhouse, they now have an elite defensive team anchored by sophomore center Przemek Karnowski.  He appears to be unskilled and uncoordinated which limits his offensive value, but he’s 7’1 and his team is playing well on the end that matters for him so he will inevitably get draft consideration when he chooses to declares.  Other than Smart, Markel Brown is the Cowboys’ other prospect of note as the senior guard has a solid shot of getting drafted in round 2 as he brings solid passing, shooting, and athleticism to the table.  Le’Bryan Nash was a 5 star recruit and had 1st round hype once upon a time, and even though he has improved into a good college it’s probably too little too late.   He is 6’7, can’t hit 3’s, and does his best work scoring in the low post against small college bigs and I simply don’t see how he fits in on an NBA roster.  If the Cowboys can sneak past Gonzaga’s defense, they get the privilege of facing Arizona’s #1 defense.  Marcus Smart can do wonders for his NBA draft stock with solid performances this weekend.

4 San Diego State
13 New Mexico State

5 Oklahoma
12 North Dakota State

San Diego state is led by senior guard Xavier Thames, who unexpectedly blossomed into a star after 3 average seasons to start his career.  He suddenly is looking draftable as he has improved his entire game and gone from a bit player to the offensive centerpiece of another great defensive team.  Sophomore forward Winston Sheppard also loosely qualifies as a prospect.  The Aztecs will face New Mexico State led by 7’5 355 lb center Sim Bhullar, who is not much of a prospect in spite of being a giant.

Oklahoma doesn’t have much in the way of prospects, as sophomore big man Ryan Spangler is a good college player but is for all intents and purposes an undersized garbage man.  Sophomore Buddy Hield is a great shooter but is also old for his class and is not a strong prospect.  The star of this game belongs to the underdog North Dakota State Bison, led by senior Taylor Braun.  Braun is more or less the Larry Bird of the Summit League, as he scores in a variety of ways and can also rebound, pass, and make plays defensively.  He deserves round 2 consideration and may end up getting drafted.

6 Baylor
11 Nebraska

3 Creighton
14 Louisiana-Lafayette

Baylor is led by big men Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson.  Jefferson is the better college player, but is 23 years old and is a center in a PF body so he really is a late 2nd flier at best.  Austin is a former 5 star recruit who is blind in one eye and his stock has eroded to the 2nd round, but somebody will likely gamble on him nevertheless and rightfully so.  While he will likely not become a good pro, he is a 7’1 shotblocker with some semblence of a scoring and shooting ability.  If he adds weight and develops into a more efficient scorer, he could be a solid roleplayer.  The counter argument would be that having vision in just one eye inhibits his upside as a shooter, as he is just 31.3% from 3 and 65.5% on FT’s in his college career.  You can watch him go up against the upstart Huskers led by sophomore Terran Petteway.  Petteway may seem like a prospect but he turns 22 in October, so do not be deceived by the sophomore classification.  He is fringe at best.

Creighton vs ULL is likely the first ever 3 vs 14 game where the two best prospects play for the 14 seed.  OK, maybe it’s going a bit overboard to rate under the radar sophomore big man Shawn Long above projected lotto pick Doug McDermott, but they are much closer than public perception suggests and there is a case to be made that Long will be the superior pro.  He is 6’9 and not much of a leaper, but he is strong and does have enough length to block shots in the Sun Belt conference.  He is a solid 3 point shooter, a great rebounder, and a good low post scorer.  The question is whether he will still be able to get his shot off vs longer and more athletic competition in the paint, and that question will not be answered in this game.  Creighton has the 3rd lowest block rate in the country, so he should not have any problem getting shots off in the paint.  But the real gem of the team is PG Elfrid Payton, who is tall, long, has weird hair, and does everything on the floor but hit outside shots.  To me he’s a surefire 1st round value and has upside as a Rajon Rondo-esque two way PG.  The Ragin Cajuns do not play particular good defense, so McDermott’s should be able to get McBuckets as per usual.  The winner of this game will face a more stringest defensive test vs. Baylor or Nebraska.

7 Oregon
10 BYU

2 Wisconsin
15 American

Oregon is led by junior guard Joseph Young and senior forward Mike Moser.  Moser had some prospect equity once upon a time, but did not develop as well as hoped and is now too old to have much value.  Joseph Young’s value is inhibited by the fact that he is 6’2 and lacks PG skills, but he is one of my favorite college players to watch.  He is a fantastically efficient college scorer, and he also has a permanent scowl on his face which I find to be endearing.  His NBA prospects are fringey but he could be worth a late 2nd round flier.  BYU is led by Tyler Haws who is too old and not toolsy enough to make an impact in the NBA.

Wisconsin has a surprising amount of prospects this year.  The guys to watch are Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky, both of whom belong in round 1 in my estimation.  Dekker is the consensus late first pick, and Kaminsky is the one who is not getting much consideration and may always be underrated due to failing the face test. Also freshman Nigel Hayes is an intriguing player in a funky mold and may eventually become a solid prospect. American actually plays better defense than either Oregon or BYU, so the Wisky guys won’t be facing any NBA-esque tests in the first weekend.

Midwest
1 Wichita State
16 Cal Poly/Texas Southern

8 Kentucky
9 Kansas State

Wichita State’s best prospect is sophomore Ron Baker, who got off to a fantastic start this season and then was slowed by an ankle injury and played hurt from the Tennessee game onward.  He seems to have recovered to near full health, so we get to see how he does running through a possible gauntlet of Kentucky and Louisville.  Also sophomore PG Fred Van Vleet is undersized but has fantastic efficiency and could be a 2nd rounder sleeper at some point.  Senior Cleanthony Early is an exciting college player, but is likely too old to be worth drafting.

If you do not enjoy well coached teams that lack NBA prospects, Kentucky offers a poorly coached team that is full of future NBA busts!  Willie Cauley-Stein is really the only prospect who is particularly enthralling at this point, as he uses his elite length, quicks, and athleticism to make impressive plays defensively.  Offensively he is just an offensive rebounder and finisher.  Julius Randle and James Young are still worth 1st round picks, although I am not particularly enthused about either.  I had some hope for Aaron Harrison which is rapidly waning, and Andrew Harrison is simply the worst.  Dakari Johnson still has some hope as a prospect and has not generated much discussion in spite of a mini-breakout in college.  Kansas State is led by freshman shooter Marcus Foster, who could enter prospect radar with a good progression as a sophomore.  Kansas State does not have the shot blocking to cause a world of grief for Randle and company, and if they should advance Wichita State’s defense will pose a much stingier test.

5 Saint Louis
12 NC State

4 Louisville
13 Manhattan

TJ Warren is the prospect to watch in the 5/12 matchup, as he has drawn comparisons to Antawn Jamison.  It seems like a reasonable comp to me, as he plays questionable defense and dominates with his floater.  I am not a Jamison fan so I am not too high on Warren, but it is reasonable to include him in the 1st round nevertheless.  Saint Louis plays great defense and offers a solid test.

Louisville is the best 4 seed of all time, as they are arguably the best team in the country.  Their prospects are sophomore forward Montrezl Harrell and senior guard Russ Smith.  Montrezl is an incredibly fun and exciting college player with questionable translation issues to the pros.  He is a PF who is likely too small to play center, and he needs to develop into more than just a dunker to have a good pro career.  He still merits 1st round consideration since he has expanded his game considerably as a sophomore, but still has a long way to go before becoming a solid NBA PF.  Russ Smith is arguably the best college player in the country, and is worth a 2nd round pick as a possible poor man’s Kyle Lowry.  He is only 6’0 but he is incredibly fast and has quick hands on defense, and he fills it up on offense as he has greatly improved his outside shooting, decision making, and PG skills over his tenure at Lousiville.  He turns 23 in April so upside is limited, but he is a fun fun college player who could become a useful pro.

6 UMass
11 Iowa/Tennessee

3 Duke
14 Mercer

The Iowa/Tennessee play in game tonight features a number of fringe guys.  The best prospect is Tennessee big man Jarnell Stokes, who has been playing great as of late and could sneak into round 1.  Jordan McRae figures to get 2nd round consideration but is also quite old.  Iowa’s best prospect is senior Roy Devyn Marble, who should be drafted in round 2.  Junior Aaron White likely will not be drafted but has some small NBA equity.  UMass is a mediocre A-10 team that has no business being a 6 seed and will be a clear underdog against either team.

Duke’s big time prospect is freshman Jabari Parker.  Mercer should not be much of a defensive test, and neither should Iowa.  But Tennessee is the exact type of defense that has given him trouble, so it is worth watching his performance in that game should Duke and Tennessee match up.  Rodney Hood is considered a lottery pick by many, but I’m not sure he even belongs in round 1.  He is a smooth shooter who doesn’t have the best tools and is awful defensively.  Duke’s actual 2nd best player is sophomore Amile Jefferson, whose NBA prospects are limited by the fact that he is a skinny 6’9 garbage man, and he will likely stay 4 years and then get picked in round 2.  Also sophomore guard Rasheed Sulaimon still has some lingering value as a prospect.

7 Texas
10 Arizona State

2 Michigan
15 Wofford

Arizona State is led by sophomore PG Jahii Carson, who really is vastly overrated as a prospect.  I wouldn’t touch him anywhere in the draft since he’s undersized, bad defensively, and really not much of a college player considering he’s going to turn 22 in August.  He will likely have trouble scoring in the paint vs Texas’s bigs.  Texas’s best prospect is sophomore big man Cameron Ridley, who rebounds, blocks shots, and finishes in the paint.

Michigan boasts projected mid-late 1st round pick Nik Stauskas, who is a slick and talented offensive player. He went through a mini-rough patch since I wrote about him, but he has picked it up lately and can aid his stock with a strong tourney showing.  Sophomore Glenn Robinson has seen his stock erode due to issues with his outside shooting and BBIQ, but he is an elite finisher converting 86.4% of his rim attempts on the season.  He is still likely worth an early 2nd round pick.