So now that the draft is complete, it is time to re-rank the prospects with new information that has come to light:
|29||Larry Nance Jr|
I imagine that most sharp NBA teams had 1. Towns and 2. Russell, and I agree with that.
I am all in on Justise Winslow. Even if his height was mildly disappointing and he shot poorly in workouts, there is still so so much to like about his profile. It was mostly bad GM’s that passed him up while one of my fave GM’s in Danny Ainge was trying to trade up for him every step of the way starting at #4. He has such clear two way upside with a high floor to boot, I cannot fathom that it was remotely correct for him to slide that far.
I softened my anti-Hezonja and Porzingis stance because they both do have great tools and I don’t feel strongly enough any of my 8-12 prospects to place them ahead of either. I still have my doubts about them, but there’s no reason they cannot be real good. I wish I could have stronger feelings on these two and Mudiay, but all I can do is stash the trio in between the big 4 NCAA studs and everybody else.
I dropped Kelly Oubre to 11. I believe he is underrated due to his combination of freshman stats and physical tools, but there is little that stands out about him other than his superficial appeal. He cannot create his own shot and he does not have good basketball IQ, so I have slightly tempered my expectations of him.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is the second biggest steal in the draft behind Winslow. His offensive limitations are a big concern, but his combination of physical tools and defensive acumen is so elite that they are worth stomaching. I am surprised at how many smart FO’s passed him up with non-lotto picks, but once upon a time Daryl Morey drafted Marcus Morris ahead of Kawhi Leonard so I’m sticking to my guns that RHJ slid way too far.
Myles Turner still feels bleh to me but I’m interested to see how well Frank Vogel can mitigate the limitations of his gait by playing him in the Hibbert role. I could see him having a successful career in Indiana.
It feels like no matter who I rank 22 or 23 it feels too low. I ended up placing Justin Anderson and Jerian Grant in those slots, and both are solid prospects to me. Truthfully you could rank my 13-23 tier in any order and it would seem fine to me.
RJ Hunter feels perfect at 24. I could jumble up my 5-12, 13-23, or 25-40 in any number of orders but RJ makes the perfect dividing line to bridge the gap between my top 23 and the rest.
I bumped up Terry Rozier a long way from 50 to 25. I remain unimpressed with his offensive skill set, but he does have the length and frame to guard SG’s. Further, it is possible that the Celtics can parlay his elite first step into a nice slashing game with better coaching, spacing, and skill development. I appreciate the athleticism + defense strength tandem in prospects so this pick may not be historically bad. That said, his current offensive package is highly worrisome for a 21 year old 6’2″ player, and I suspect the Celtics are being overly optimistic about his growth potential by taking him at #16. So it’s still a reach in my book.
Everything else is generally smoothened given NBA opinions. I figure this will look better than my average big board because I am not taking huge positions for no reason and am focusing on my more confident reads. So we’ll see how this works. Really don’t feel like I have much insight to offer this year other than it being comical that Winslow slid to #10 and RHJ being a possible big time steal late. All of the prospects are at least decent and I don’t think consensus is all that far off base.
Obviously I agree re: Winslow. Think you’re right that Looney should have gone about 10 higher. Also would have slotted Grant and Anderson up into the mid-high teens. Think Anderson suffered for his late injury and playing on a boring UVA team, but he will be a very good pro. I probably wouldn’t have slotted Booker much higher but I do think about 8% of the time he turns into an AS.
Funny you should mention Grant and Anderson as the guys who look undervalued because I feel whoever I slot at 22 and 23 it feels like I am underrating them. There are exactly 23 players that seem legit useful and then 24.RJ Hunter bridges the gap to everybody else. I should probably edit a note into my post that I believe that my 13-23 are all real close and you could pretty much randomize this group to any order and it would look reasonable to me.
Turner and Lyles are the ones I have a hard time getting excite about, just seem like stiffs, although with Lyles that’s prbably bc Cal had him playing a very limited role. Feel like Dekker is going to suck, too, but maybe I just hate white people.
I’m pretty surprised you never jumped on the Stan Johnson bandwagon. Particularly surprised you ranked him below the euros. He is a 4-time high school champion, has an NBA ready body at the tender age of 19 (a testament to his work ethic). Given his age and his current abilities, it’s easy to see him becoming an all-star. The thing i like about him is that his college teammates said from day 1 he came in with an ultra-competitive mindset, and had an Alpha aura about him. He’s obviously a leader and it’s easy to imagine him making SOME sort of impact on a winning team in the playoffs. I think we’re looking at a Paul Pierce / Ron Artest level hybrid once he develops into his final form.
Stan is a tough one to evaluate…obviously there is a ton to like about him, but he has his share of flags too. He’s not that athletic and sort of a bully…he is a surprisingly good shot maker, but I am skeptical about his creation skills. Also not convinced he’ll be a lockdown defensive player.
He’s having a promising SL so far but he’s also running good on jumpshots falling.
I get the Pierce comparison but that’s his upper upper bound, as Paul Pierce is one of the all time great wings and it’s hard to think of any wing who was better offensively w/ average athleticism. Artest is an all-time great defensive player, and I don’t see Stan becoming that good on that end.
Maybe I’ll look back and feel silly for not putting him ahead of Mudiay/Hezonja/Staps but my feelings on him are mixed and I don’t want to overreact to hot SL shooting.
Kristaps Porzingis I think is pretty good is defense has been solid and he has had a hip injury and has still played pretty well. While Russell who was supposed to be nba ready has been sorta bad with turnovers and shooting. Clint Capella maybe the most unskilled player in the nba .174.From the free throw line is ridiculous . I am high Nurkic like you. But Capella I think is much worse prospect than porzingis. He has terrible feel and incredibly unskilled.
Kristaps Iq and feel looks better than I thought but he is clumsy because he is still getting used to his body at 19.
Capela shot 60% from FT in a much bigger d-league sample. He’s way more fluid + explosive and has better feel than Staps.
Staps’ advantage is that he’s bigger + can shoot, but his shooting ability can also work against him if he tries to create offense away from the rim too often. I don’t see him being efficient in isolations, and Capela’s overpowered dunking is a much safer + better skill to have offensively. Defensively it’s close, but Capela actually rebounds and can cover way more ground to make up for his size disparity.
Kristaps is clumsy because he’s clumsy– he is like the anti-Embiid in the way that he moves.