• Home
  • About
  • Mock Drafts
  • Big Board
  • NCAA
  • International

Dean On Draft

~ Uniquely Good Analysis

Dean On Draft

Tag Archives: CJ Wilcox

Playing The Round 2 Lotto

22 Tuesday Apr 2014

Posted by deanondraft in Miscellaneous, NCAA

≈ 12 Comments

Tags

Artem Klimenko, CJ Wilcox, Cleanthony Early, Isaiah Sykes, Jahii Carson, Jarnell Stokes, Javon McCrea, Kendrick Perry, Rodney Hood, Spencer Dinwiddie

Round 2 is the uneventful part of the draft, where the majority of picks amount to little or nothing.  But sometimes teams uncover solidly useful players such as Chandler Parsons, Isaiah Thomas, Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver, Danny Green, Omer Asik, etc.  The goal of drafting in round 2 should be to draft a starting caliber player such as the aforementioned names.  It is more likely that you can find a fringe bench player such as Chris Duhon, but those types offer little value since they can always be acquired with the veteran’s minimum.  Bearing that in mind, I’d like to review some of the highly rated players that I’d pass on and the unheralded players who I’d target instead:

Do Not Draft: CJ Wilcox (#32 ESPN, #35 DX)

I have no problems with Wilcox’s game, as he is a solidly good college player without any glaring warts.  But the underlying logic to rate him as a fringe 1st round prospect is so backwards that the thought of him going round 1 is somewhat grating to me.  CJ Wilcox is a good shooter, as he shot 39% from 3’s and 87% from FT as a senior.  He also has average size and athleticism for an NBA SG.  If you were required to trot out a round 2 prospect for bench minutes in 2014-15 season and hope he does not submarine your 2nd unit, Wilcox would not a bad pick.  But that is the opposite of the correct goal for drafting in round 2, as teams are not required to play their 2nd rounders.  And unless he was woefully misused in his 4 years at Washington, he is drawing dead to become a starting caliber SG.  He turns 24 in December and his skills outside of shooting are largely underdeveloped.  As a senior, he was roughly the same player he was as a freshmen and is not much of a handler, passer, rebounder, or defender.  Considering his age, it is exceptionally unlikely that he develops his non-shooting skills to NBA levels of competence, and it’s not like he’s a Kyle Korver or JJ Redick level shooter.  His upside is roughly Willie Green, the poster child for replacement level SG.

Instead Draft: Isaiah Sykes (unranked ESPN, unranked DX)

Sykes is the inverse Wilcox, in that he’s good at everything except shooting.  This was roughly Chandler Parsons’s appeal: he was a good handler, passer, rebounder, and finisher and then when his shot developed better than expected he quickly became a solid starter.  Sykes is 6’5 with a 6’11 wingspan and exceptional athleticism, and he offers defensive upside that Parsons lacked.  He racked up a solid steal rate in his final 2 seasons at Central Florida, and could be effective on this end playing for an NBA coach.  Also he is a good rebounder, ball handler, and passer, and his shot is not completely hopeless as he shot 34 for 103 (33%) from 3 for his college career, improving his 3p% each season.  The downside is that he shot poorly from the FT line (54% as a senior 56% overall) and was generally an inefficient and turnover prone player in his large offensive workload.  He turns 23 in December which gives him limited time to improve his shot, but his shooting splits are not too different from Parsons who was similarly bad at FT’s and merely took a higher volume of 3’s.  If his shot can take a mini-leap and he lands with an NBA coach who gives his game a nice haircut, he has enough positive qualities to become a solidly good cog in any NBA unit.

Do Not Draft: Jahii Carson (#38 ESPN, #42 DX)

Why is this guy a prospect?  He’s explosive, but he’s also diminutive at 5’11 and not exceptionally skilled.  He’s a solid but not great shooter and passer, and he struggles to finish inside amongst the trees in college.  He also is a near lock to be woefully bad on defense given his size and the fact that he did not accrue many steals to help atone for this.  He has developed a reputation as a selfish player and he is old for a sophomore as he turns 22 in August.  There is little to like and oh so much to dislike.

Instead Draft: Kendrick Perry (unranked ESPN, unranked DX)

Perry is also diminutive, as he recently measured 5’11.75 in shoes and 169 pounds at Portsmouth.  But he atones with exceptional explosiveness and length with a 6’6 wingspan.  Even though he’s a senior, he’s actually 4 months younger than Carson.  And while he shares Jahii’s burst with similar shooting and passing abilities, he is also better at everything else.  He’s a better finisher, rebounder, defender, and superior at protecting the ball.  He completely and utterly outclasses Carson in every way conceivable, and the fact that Jahii is on draft radar and Perry isn’t speaks to the inefficiency of consensus prospect rankings.

Do Not Draft: Cleanthony Early (#24 ESPN, #27 DX)

Well, this hype train sure got out of hand in a hurry.  I rather like Early as a college player, but considering him in round 1 is a hilarious overreaction to a well timed career game vs. Kentucky in the tournament.  Early appeared incapable of ever missing a jump shot vs UK, but you can trust me on this one: he sometimes missed shots in his other games.  He has solid size and good athleticism for a SF, but really what else is there?  He’s a solid but not exceptional shooter, and his finishing will struggle to translate when he is facing NBA competition rather than undersized Missouri Valley Conference bigs.  While his athleticism enables him to average 1 block per game, he projects to be a liability on defense overall.  And most troubling is this blurb from DX:

“The only small forwards drafted with a lower assist percentage in our database spanning back to 2001 (who played over 20 minutes per game in that college season) are Lazar Hayward, Al Thornton, Shabazz Muhammad, Dahntay Jones, Deshaun Thomas, Bobby Jones, Damion James and Maurice Ager”

Yikes, that is a frighteningly worthless collection of players.  And to make matters worse, Early’s pitiful assist rate came at age 22 (he turned 23 last week), and he should have learned to sometimes pass by now.  This calls his feel for the game into question, and it’s difficult to envision him becoming useful vs. NBA competition.

Draft Instead: Javon McCrea (unranked ESPN, unranked DX)

If only because his stats are frighteningly similar to those of Paul Millsap:
USG% O-Rtg eFG% FT% AST%
Millsap 26.9 114.3 57.6 62.3 8.2
McCrea 28.3 115 56.2 66.7 16.6
ORB% DRB% STL% BLK% Height
Millsap 18.1 23.9 3.2 6.7 6’7
McCrea 13.7 20.6 2.7 7.2 6’7

These stats are from each player’s final season of college, and McCrea will only be 3 months older as of draft night.

Millsap played a tougher schedule and is clearly the superior prospect with his advantages in rebounding and steals.  But McCrea’s assist advantage is not to be scoffed at, as assist rates correlate with feel for the game.  But falling short of Millsap’s goodness is not a bad thing, as he was woefully undervalued sliding to 47th overall in the 2006 draft.  More importantly, Millsap proves that undersized mid-major bullies do not necessarily flop in the pros.  McCrea’s assist and steal rates offer hope that he has the feel and length to become something in the NBA.  It will be interesting to see how he measures out pre-draft, because he offers intrigue as a 2nd round flier based on his stat stuffing and parallels to Millsap.

Do Not Draft: Rodney Hood (#21 ESPN #23 DX)

I have been bashing Hood all season, and finally DX and ESPN are starting to catch up as they no longer have him as a top 20 pick.  Nevertheless, he should never get picked in round 1 and I do not find him to be particularly compelling in round 2 either.  His only positive tool is that he has solid height for an NBA SF, and even that is in part due to his long neck.  He has subpar strength, length, quicks, and athleticism.  And to make matters worse, he has awful instincts defensively and doesn’t seem interested in working hard on this end either.  He projects to be somewhere on the scale of worst all time defender to a clear liability.  What does he bring offensively to offset this?  He’s a good shooter and a solid passer with decent feel for the (offensive aspect of the) game.  That is all.  He doesn’t rebound and isn’t much of ball handler or finisher.  It’s difficult to envision his offense amounting to enough to make his defense worth stomaching.  When at age 21 you are just the 6th best player on a team that cannot win a single tourney game, it may be a sign you aren’t going to excel in the NBA.

(Side note: as an avid Duke watcher my player ratings this past season are: Amile > Jabari >> Cook > Dawkins > Sulaimon > Hood.  Amile is the Amir Johnson of college: he goes unnoticed due to low scoring totals but makes a ton of good plays, not many bad ones, and has an overall surprisingly positive impact.)

Draft Instead: Artem Klimenko (unranked ESPN, #35 DX)

Klimenko is a complete and utter mystery box, which makes him a great player to target in round 2.  He is 7’1 with a 7’4 wingspan and good mobility, but at age 20 he has yet to face any level of challenging competition.  According to DX he is averaging 15 points in 24 minutes on 57% inside the arc against weak Russian competition.   This means little for his NBA projection, but at least he’s dominating the dregs like he should.  Also he shoots 74% from the line, which offers hope that he has some semblance of skill.  The primary question is whether he has the instincts and intelligence to maximize his physical tools and become a useful NBA defensive player, which is where he has the most potential.  If he does, then perhaps whoever gambles on him will acquire an Omer Asik level steal.  If not, at least you didn’t waste your pick on a player who has already strongly suggested that he lacks upside.  Teams can glean more regarding how worthwhile of a gamble Klimenko is via interviews and workouts.  But as a general concept: young, toolsy internationals with fuzzy translation are good targets as the talent on the board thins.  Giannis Antetokoumpo going 15th overall last year is a good example of this.

Closing Thoughts:

The players I listed as solid round 2 targets are some ultra deep sleepers, and it’s reasonably likely that all of them amount to nothing.  The vast majority of players who ever may amount to anything are already on DX/ESPN’s radar at this stage, and the best 2nd round picks will likely be players who are already on the radar and slide too far.  For instance: Spencer Dinwiddie (#42 ESPN/#49 DX) has become a bit of a forgotten man after his ACL injury.  But he still may declare nevertheless, and he may slide to round 2 and then become a Korver/Green level role playing wing.  Jarnell Stokes (#28 ESPN, #49 DX) also may make for a valuable role player with his unique combination of speed, strength, and skill.  But these players also may go in round 1 and the players that *should* merit 1st round consideration often make for the best 2nd round picks.

Since it is difficult to anticipate precisely where everybody will land when the draft actually happens, I constrained myself to scraping the barrel for this exercise.  So take this as a demonstration of my logic for uncovering diamonds in the rough as opposed to my list of favorite round 2 sleepers, as it will ultimately be the Dinwiddie/Stokes type sliders who are the slickest steals.

Delon Wright: A Synergistic Blend of Tools and Skills

12 Wednesday Feb 2014

Posted by deanondraft in NCAA

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Andre Miller, CJ Wilcox, Delon Wright, Forgot about DRE, JUCO

An aspect often overlooked by traditional scouting is the way in which a player’s physical tools and skills can feed off of one another to create a multiplier effect on production.  Today I will explore this concept using an unheralded prospect as an example.

Utah guard and younger brother of NBA player Dorell, Delon Wright is slowly creeping onto the draft radar with a surprising junior season after transferring from junior college.  He’s currently ranked 59th on DX’s top 100, and not yet on ESPN’s big board.  His rise is particularly surprising, because JUCO transfers simply are not a healthy source of NBA prospects.  Of the 2011 and 2012 top 100, only Pierre Jackson (#1 in 2011) became an NBA prospect as he was drafted 42nd overall in 2013 and is now leading the D-League in scoring after two good seasons at Baylor.  Some successful examples of NBA players who started off at the JUCO level are Jimmy Butler, Carl Landry, and Jae Crowder.  It is possible to become a useful pro while starting with the JUCO route, but it’s not a common occurrence.  The most surprising aspect of Wright’s ascent to prospect is that he wasn’t even considered the prize of his JUCO class, as he was ranked 17th in the 2013 class, behind 16 players who are not recognizable to most basketball fans.

It is fair to wonder why he was so unheralded as both a high school recruit and JUCO transfer.  He is a 6’5 PG with lengthy wingspan and an NBA brother, so it seems that should translate to some positive attention.  Delon’s warts likely turned scouts off, as outside of his height and length his tools are not good.  He is rail thin and is not particularly quick, fast, or explosive.  I estimate that he is below average for an NBA point guard in all of those categories, although lack of strength is his only glaring wart.  And while he is a good mid-range and FT shooter, his shot does not extend to 3 point range.  If you want to not be noticed by scouts, being a guard without 3 point range and questionable tools is the perfect foundation to be entirely glazed over.

Now it is fair to wonder how he can be an NBA prospect with all of those warts.  The answer lies in his arms- they are his everything and he uses them to accomplish far more than most would expect.  While I cannot find an official listing of his wingspan, it would not surprise me to see him measure out around 6’10.  Regardless of the precise measurement, he plays as if he has a wingspan greater than 7′.  He uses his length to create steals, block shots, pass in traffic, and finish over bigs at the rim, and consequently he stuffs the statsheet.  After discarding Utah’s 2 games vs Division II teams, he is averaging 16.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks on 65.5% TS, largely driven by his amazing 65.9% 2P%.  This has come against a middling schedule as Utah played a number of non-conference doormat teams, but it has translated to team level overachievement.  Utah started off ranked as the #150 team in kenpom.com’s pre-season rankings and has risen all the way up to #44 behind Wright’s strong play.

There are not many frames of reference for Wright’s mold of play, as he is so unique it is difficult to find an apt comparison for him based on past prospects.  Perhaps the closest statistical comparison is fellow non-toolsy Utah point guard in Andre Miller.  Miller accrued his stats playing vs. a similarly middling schedule, and did so while being 13 months older than Delon:

Usage O-Rtg eFG FTA/FGA FT% AST% TOV%
Delon 23.3 123.4 61.1 0.567 78% 29.3 17.0
Andre 29 113.4 51.9 0.441 69% 35.6 19.0

Andre Miller took on a higher volume of scoring, and Delon has had greater efficiency.  They shared similarly poor 3 point shooting (Delon 26.3% on 38 3PA, Miller 26.5% on 83 3PA), although Wright showed better touch at the FT line.  Miller has a clear edge in his assist stats, which is his most significant advantage over Wright.  Wright is a solid passer and occasionally makes an impressive pass in transition, but many of his assists stem from simple passes that find open teammates for 3.  His point guard skills are not on par with those of Miller.

ORB% DRB% STL% BLK%
Delon 3.9 15.9 4.5 3.3
Andre 6 14.3 4.9 1.5

Defensively, both players stand out with their exceptional steal and rebound totals.  Most impressive for Delon is that Utah does not play a gimmicky gambling defense. They play man to man with a better rank in opponent eFG% than TOV% in spite of Delon’s playmaking, and none of his teammates accrue steals at even half the rate that he does.  Further, he uses his length to block more shots than Miller.  Miller does have the advantage of being significantly stronger to aid him in fighting through screens on the perimeter, but Delon is 3 inches taller and has a clear advantage in wingspan.

In spite of the similarities statistically and athletically, there are reasons to be skeptical of Delon’s ability to translate to the NBA as well as Miller did.  Miller had an incredibly rare combination of handles, passing, and basketball IQ to become a successful pro in spite of his lack of quicks and explosiveness.  Also it’s not clear that Wright could simply take on an offensive role the size of Miller’s without a drastic hit to his efficiency.  Wright’s efficiency stems largely from his transition play, which does not translate to NBA play as effectively as half court offense.  43.8% of his points scored from the floor (i.e. not free throws) have come in transition where he sports a stunning 81.1% eFG as per hoop-math.com.  In the halfcourt, he sports just a 52.4% eFG which is rather pedestrian given his lack of volume.  This does not mean that his transition scoring should be ignored altogether- he created many of those opportunities with steals and the ability to score with such efficiency in transition isn’t worthless.  But it is a major damper on the goodness of his statistics, and a good reason to not get too carried away with the Andre Miller comparison.

Being a clearly inferior prospect to Andre Miller is not a gross condemnation.  Andre Miller was drafted 8th overall and has the 4th most career win shares for his draft slot, as he has had a fantastic NBA career.  Delon can be inferior by a considerable margin and still merit a first round selection.  While he does not have Miller’s floor general skills, he isn’t lacking in this regard and he is a good decision maker as he rarely forces up bad shots and protects the ball fairly well.  And between his FT% and solid 41.3% FG’s on non-rim 2’s, there is an inkling of hope that he may eventually extend his range to the NBA corner 3.  It’s difficult to project him defensively with such a unique collection of tools, but he has the potential to be solid on this end.  One feature is that he can situationally cross match onto SG’s, although this is somewhat inhibited by his lack of strength.  It is difficult to predict Delon’s future with confidence, he may never cut it as a useful NBAer, or he might become a sneaky solid player.  I currently believe that he is a worthwhile gamble somewhere in the late 1st or early 2nd, and he still has some tough games on the schedule to alter his perception.

If nothing else, Delon Wright is the perfect example of the leak in the mental approach commonly taken by NBA scouts.  It seems that they create a checklist of tools and skills, and then rate a prospect based on how many boxes are checked.  Consequently a prospect like CJ Wilcox, who likely does not have upside to be better than a dime a dozen SG such as Willie Green, receives more attention than Wright.  Scouts are generally more attracted to significantly watered down protoypes of NBA players such as Wilcox than more productive offbeat molds such as Wright.  Wright exemplifies an  underrated concept, which is the importance of synergy between tools and skills.  For instance, Julius Randle has excellent touch around the rim but this skill is diminished by his short arms, and the poor synergy reduces his value as a prospect even though his tools are not bad overall.  Wright is the opposite in that his primary skills are quick hands, excellent anticipation instincts on defense, and touch around the rim, all of which mesh perfectly with his length to create an awesome blend of production, at least at the NCAA level.  Instead of perceiving tools as a checklist of physical traits, we should focus on how a player is able to employ them on the basketball court.  Steal rate is an indicator of NBA success, as it often tells a story which may be overlooked by scouts.  Delon’s story is that while his overall tools may be suboptimal, we shouldn’t write them off as inadequate because he can do more damage with his length than even expert observers would expect.

Follow me on Twitter

My Tweets

Top Posts & Pages

  • 2020 Draft Guide
    2020 Draft Guide
  • Does Lonzo Ball Hard Enough?
    Does Lonzo Ball Hard Enough?
  • Marcus Smart vs. Andrew Wiggins: Who Was The Best Big 12 Perimeter Defender?
    Marcus Smart vs. Andrew Wiggins: Who Was The Best Big 12 Perimeter Defender?
  • 2020 NBA Draft: Who Should Go #1?
    2020 NBA Draft: Who Should Go #1?
  • How Good is Deni Avdija?
    How Good is Deni Avdija?

Recent Comments

deanondraft on Round 2 Hidden Gems
Tom Rehnquist on Round 2 Hidden Gems
deanondraft on 2020 Draft: This Lottery is Re…
deanondraft on How Good is Deni Avdija?
Stephen on 2020 Draft: This Lottery is Re…

Blog at WordPress.com.

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy