Evan Mobley is currently projected to go #3 overall, as he is a fluid and mobile 7’0 that offers a bit of everything.
The areas where he stands out in particular are with his passing and defense. He reads the defense very well, and every time he is double teamed he quickly swings it to the open shooter. And he was rim protector for the 6th best defense in the NCAA, and did so with an unprecedented ability to avoid fouls.
Let’s take a look at how his passing, rim protection, and foul rates compare to past top 5 big prospects at a similar age:
Age
AST%
A:TO
BLK%
PF/40
BLK:PF
Evan Mobley
19.6
14.1
1.20
8.8
2.1
1.64
DeAndre Ayton
19.5
10.2
0.83
6.1
2.8
0.81
Jaren Jackson Jr.
18.3
9.3
0.63
14.3
5.9
0.95
Karl Anthony-Towns
19.1
11.6
0.83
11.5
5
0.77
Kristaps Porzingis
19.4
5.2
0.38
5.2
4.9
0.40
Joel Embiid
19.8
11.5
0.58
11.7
6.3
0.77
Anthony Davis
18.8
7.5
1.22
13.7
2.4
2.38
Greg Oden
18.9
5
0.33
12.7
3.8
1.21
Al Horford
19.6
15.1
1.04
6.9
4.5
0.70
Tyrus Thomas
19.4
10.4
0.71
11.9
5
1.21
Andrew Bogut
20.1
18.2
0.85
6.2
5.8
0.83
Emeka Okafor
19.3
4.4
0.57
12.7
3.5
1.57
Chris Bosh
18.8
7.9
0.53
6.7
3
0.92
Mobley is in the conversation for best passing big of the top 20 years, as he only gets edged out in assist rate by sophomores Horford and Bogut, and atones with a better assist to turnover ratio.
He does not have quite the block rate as most of the stud rim protectors, but atones with his lack of fouling. The only prospect who showed a better ability to block without fouling is Anthony Davis, who was a clear top 3 prospect of the past 20 years.
Davis was also younger with better steals and rebounds and more explosive athleticism, so Mobley isn’t on his level of generational prospect. But he holds up well when compared to everybody else on the list.
Among the other prospects who were able to accumulate more blocks than fouls: Greg Oden, Emeka Okafor, and Tyrus Thomas, none were close to Mobley as a passer or a shooter.
Mobley gives some of his goodness back by having a thin frame and being weaker on the glass than everybody on this list other than JJJ. But you can see he has some unique strengths to make him exciting
Team Success
Andy Enfield’s tenure at USC has been decent but unspectacular. He was hired in 2013-14, and after two rebuilding seasons he was able to get the Trojans perennially to the NCAA tournament bubble, ranging from #49 to #82 kenpom ranking among D1 teams for 5 seasons in a row. And the 20-21 season appeared to be no different, as they lost their top 4 players ranked by win shares from the 19-20 season with Evan’s brother Isaiah as the only decent returner. They replaced everybody else with a glut of ordinary low and mid-major role players, and their perimeter creation appeared to be sorely lacking.
But it worked for a couple of reasons. They had the 6th best defense in NCAA, in large part because having two intelligent bigs makes for a strong defensive foundation. And they overperformed their #24 block rate with the #2 defensive 2P%– a sign that Mobley’s good but non-elite block rate may understate his rim protection. Similar to Tim Duncan and Andrew Bogut, he prioritizes forcing difficult shots over trying to send every opponent shot attempt into the stands.
They also had the 14th best offense, which was particularly shocking for a team with such pedestrian perimeter talent. But mid-major transfers Drew Peterson and Tahj Eaddy were able to sustain similar usage and assist rates as they did for their mid-major teams in 19-20 with a slight bump in efficiency for Peterson and a huge jump for Eaddy.
This is incredibly rare as most mid-major transfers see a significant drop in offensive output when they move up to high major. Peterson and Eaddy deserve credit for improving, but this level of performance likely would not be possible without two intelligent passing big men to make life easier for the guards and wings.
Consequently, USC ended up with by far the best team in Andy Enfield’s career, finishing as the #6 kenpom team and making a surprising elite 8 run.
Everybody talks about how bad Cade Cunningham’s teammates are, but every half-decent computer model rated Oklahoma State as the better team entering the season as he had relatively decent high major teammates. Evan Mobley was the top prospect who had the clearly most flawed cast, yet he was able to carry them much further than expected by several orders of magnitude.
Comps
Chris Bosh
The most obvious comp to Mobley is Chris Bosh, who shares a similar physical profile and looks like he could be Mobley’s biological father:
Age
USG
2P%
FT%
OR%
DR%
AST%
STL%
BLK%
Mobley
19.6
23.6
0.615
0.694
9.7
18.9
14.1
1.4
8.8
Bosh
18.8
22.5
0.576
0.73
10.8
20.8
7.9
1.8
6.7
Bosh was 9 months younger and showed slightly better rebounding and shooting (also attempted 1.9 3’s per 40 vs 1.4 for Mobley), but otherwise Mobley looks good with better passing, rim protection, and slightly better usage and efficiency.
Mobley is right on the cusp where he can maybe develop into a good shooter or maybe not, and this will obviously make a significant swing on his NBA value. But Bosh never became a reliable NBA shooter until his final few seasons. Mobley’s passing and rim protection advantages are so significant, if they were both in this draft he would likely deserve the edge as the better pick.
It’s close enough such that it’s not clear whether his median outcome will be better or worse than Bosh. And when that can be said about a comparison to a hall of fame player, that’s a good sign that Mobley is a worthy #1 overall.
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Another recent skinny big prospect who has some parallels is Jaren Jackson Jr.
Age
USG
2P%
FT%
OR%
DR%
AST%
STL%
BLK%
Mobley
19.6
23.6
0.615
0.694
9.7
18.9
14.1
1.4
8.8
JJJ
18.3
22.9
0.596
0.797
8.7
19.7
9.3
1.6
14.3
They are similar rebounding, and JJJ is the better shooter with better FT% and a higher 3PA rate of which he made 39.6% while being more than a full year younger. JJJ had more blocks, but Mobley had a small fraction of the foul rate, fouling 2.1 times per 40 compared to 5.9 for JJJ..
Personally I was extremely high on JJJ, and with his youthful upside it would have been difficult to take Mobley ahead of him. Especially since prospects with NBA fathers tend to out perform their draft stock, and Jaren Sr. outperformed himself going from undrafted free agent to useful rotation player for the championship Spurs.
Jaren Jr.’s rebounding, assist, and foul rates were all flags, but it made sense that he should improve his rebounding as he filled out and improve his assist and foul rates with repetition and experience, but none of that has happened.
In part this may be attributed to being hampered by injuries, and he at least showed an improved rebounding rate this past season. And he is not a bust by any stretch, as he is still a useful 21 year old player with plenty of upside to grow.
Mobley at least offers a safer and more polished prospect. He won’t be the same shooter as Jaren, but his superior passing and ability to avoid fouls are nice features that should make his NBA translation more seamless.
It is difficult to draw any strong conclusions from Jackson thus far, but he is a bit of a cautionary tale to show that Mobley is not a lock to be a stud– especially if he struggles to rebound in the NBA as much as Jackson has.
Joel Embiid
Embiid is much bigger and bulkier than Mobley, but they both have the coordination of ballerinas which is especially enticing in a talented 7 footer:
Age
USG
2P%
FT%
OR%
DR%
AST%
STL%
BLK%
Mobley
19.6
23.6
0.615
0.694
9.7
18.9
14.1
1.4
8.8
Embiid
19.8
24.7
0.639
0.685
12.7
27.3
11.5
2.2
11.7
Embiid’s major strength advantage shows in his vastly superior rebound rate, and he is no doubt the better raw talent than Mobley in a vaccum.
But Mobley makes up for this by being better at playing under control, with a significantly lower turnover (3.9 vs 5.9) and foul rate (3.1 vs 8.5) per 100. This is what him makes such a rare prospect– he is both physically capable of moving under control, and mentally capable of playing under control. In tandem this lends itself to elite levels of efficiency and positive team level impact.
Assuming full health, it is close between the two. But given Embiid’s significant health flags, Mobley would be the easy choice on draft night.
Tim Duncan/Kevin Garnett
Kevin Garnett is more physically similar to Mobley, but Duncan is the one with the college sample thus he will be the one who gets compared. Amazingly, Duncan was the same age as a junior as Mobley was as a freshman, so let’s compare that season, as it relatively falls in line with his overall college trajectory. Stats per 40 minutes:
Age
2PA
2P%
FTA
FT%
TRB
AST
TOV
STL
BLK
PF
Mobley
19.6
10.8
0.615
6.9
0.694
10.2
2.8
2.6
0.9
3.4
2.1
Duncan
19.7
13
0.57
7.3
0.687
13.3
3.1
3.5
0.7
4
2.4
It’s stunning how similar these guys are. Timmy has a bit more post game and edges out scoring volume at 20.6 pts per 40 vs 19.3 for Mobley. But Mobley compensates with better 2P%, lower TOV, and slightly better shooting.
Their assist, steal, block, free throw, and foul rates are more or less identical, and really the only area where Duncan stands out is due to his superior rebounding. In tandem with his thin frame, it is Mobley’s one nagging flaw and it is difficult to assess how much it matters.
On the bright side, Duncan never improved as a shooter, making 69.6% FT and 17.9% 3P in his NBA career. If Mobley develops into a real NBA 3 point threat, he can help atone for his lack of beef and rebounding.
The Rebounding Conundrum
Mobley’s only flaw is his thin frame and lack of rebounding, and there are different ways to look at it.
The downside is that Jaren Jackson Jr. posted similar NCAA rebound rates to Mobley, but has been an anemic 4.6%/14.4% O/D rebounder in the NBA thus far. If Mobley proves to be as soft inside as JJJ, he could be disappointing.
The upside is the two recent USC bigs to make the NBA have seamlessly translated their NCAA rebounding to the pros in limited NBA samples thus far: Onyeka Okongwu 12.4/18.4 NCAA to 12.0/17.9 NBA (including playoffs), Chimezie Metu 7.8/18.6 NCAA to 7.7/19.4 NBA.
So if we are being optimistic: Kevin Garnett was a month older as NBA rookie than Mobley as a USC freshman and posted slightly worse rebound rates: 9.1/17.0 that dipped further as sophomore to 7.6/16.8, before creeping up as he filled out and eventually became a very good rebounder in his prime.
If Mobley both sees his rebound translate well to the NBA and he consistently improves over time like Garnett, he can be a top 10 all-time great like Garnett and Duncan. This is an unlikely outcome, but in tandem with the possibility that he can also shoot 3’s better than Garnett and Duncan, this level of greatness cannot be ruled for Mobley.
The more realistic outcome is that he is a slightly different version of Chris Bosh, which is still a hall of fame level player worthy of a #1 overall choice.
And even if he falls short and is closer to a Jaren Jackson Jr. type– that is still a highly useful NBA player.
It is difficult to see how anybody else can be justified as the #1 overall pick. Mobley has the highest upside, median, and floor of anybody in the draft. His current ESPN projected at #3 overall is starting to feel like 2014 again– as the warty and overhyped wing Cade Cunningham plays the role of Andrew Wiggins and empty calories volume scorer Jalen Green plays the role of Jabari Parker in Zach LaVine’s body.
Cunningham and Green can have much better careers than Wiggins and Parker respectively, but you cannot take either over the elite 7 footer who moves like a ballerina and expect favorable results. At least in 2014, GM’s had the excuse of fretting over Embiid’s foot injury that delayed his eventual NBA debut by 2 seasons. In 2021 there is no injury excuse– you either take Mobley, or run the risk of setting your franchise back for years to come.
Any generational prospect should be able to compare favorably to other similar prospects. Cade Cunningham has great dimensions, frame, and shooting ability, but let’s see how he stacks up to past top 3 picks who were teenage offensive hubs at wing or guard.
In this case we will look at 2P% since that is more predictive of creation ability and less noisy than eFG%, assist to turnover ratio which more informative than raw TOV%, as well as offensive rebounding and free throw drawing over the past 20 drafts.
Year
Prospect
Age
2P%
AST:TO
OR%
FTr
2021
Cade Cunningham
19.3
0.461
0.86
2.3
0.39
2021
Scottie Barnes
19.4
0.561
1.66
7.4
0.339
2021
Jalen Suggs
19.6
0.588
1.55
2.7
0.367
2020
Anthony Edwards
18.4
0.504
1.05
2.5
0.338
2019
RJ Barrett
18.5
0.529
1.33
4.8
0.319
2019
Ja Morant
19.4
0.545
1.95
4.1
0.51
2019
Zion Williamson
18.5
0.747
0.87
12.7
0.467
2017
Jayson Tatum
18.8
0.504
0.82
4.8
0.381
2017
Markelle Fultz
18.6
0.502
1.85
4
0.383
2016
Ben Simmons
19.4
0.561
1.42
9.6
0.769
2016
Brandon Ingram
18.3
0.464
1
6
0.351
2016
Jaylen Brown
19.2
0.482
0.65
4.5
0.574
2015
D’Angelo Russell
18.8
0.479
1.72
3.6
0.303
2014
Andrew Wiggins
18.9
0.493
0.68
8.4
0.538
2012
Bradley Beal
18.5
0.541
1.05
4.8
0.44
2010
John Wall
19.3
0.504
1.62
2.6
0.53
2009
James Harden
19.3
0.564
1.25
5.4
0.597
2008
Derrick Rose
19.3
0.521
1.77
5
0.47
2008
OJ Mayo
20.2
0.464
0.93
3.9
0.284
2007
Kevin Durant
18.3
0.505
0.46
9
0.396
2003
Carmelo Anthony
18.6
0.496
1
8.9
0.389
Average
19.0
0.525
1.21
5.6
0.435
These guys are all in a roughly 1 year age range outside of old man OJ Mayo, and Cade is in the upper portion of that range. Among this group he rates dead last in 2P% and offensive rebounding rate, and is solidly below average in assist to turnover and free throw rate.
Scottie Barnes and Jalen Suggs are both projected outside of the top 3 in this year’s draft but they absolutely destroy Cade as efficient offensive hubs in terms of 2P% and assist:TOV ratio.
Even prospects seen as decidedly non-elite such as Anthony Edwards and RJ Barrett were better at everything except having a slightly lower free throw rate while being nearly a full year younger. Cade is bigger and better at shooting, but his basketball playing ability is not clearly above these guys by any means. Yet neither received a fraction of the hype and adoration that Cade has garnered.
Cade has been compared to Ben Simmons with a jump shot, which is ridiculous since Simmons demolishes him in all 4 categories.
Cade has also been compared to a bigger James Harden, which is also comical since Harden destroys him in all 4 categories. And Harden also destroyed him in all 4 as a freshman when he was nearly a full year younger.
Athletic guards like Bradley Beal, John Wall, Derrick Rose, and Ja Morant topped him in all 4 categories and Markelle Fultz was only a hair behind in FT rate.
Jayson Tatum is the only player that Cade edges out in 2 categories with better assist to turnover and free throw rate by a hair each while being about half a year older. And unlike the rest of the list, Cade is not bigger or better at shooting than Tatum. And Tatum was not perceived as a can’t miss star entering the draft by any stretch.
Brandon Ingram has similar dimensions and was a full year younger than Cade trumping him at all categories except slightly lower free throw rate, and he still was bad at NBA basketball for 3 seasons before figuring it out.
Jaylen Brown is an outlier NCAA statistical overperformer, yet he still trumps Cade in 3 of 4 categories.
Cade was a better NCAA shooter than Tatum, Ingram, and Brown, but each of those three makes 38-40% NBA 3P– what are the odds that Cade is significantly better than them as a pro? He could be one of the all time great NBA shooters, but it’s very rare for high usage guys outside of Steph to make > 40% from 3.
OJ Mayo is a bit older than this group, but his statistical profile to highly similar to Cade. He dominated high school by being physically developed early, then showed up to NCAA with less athleticism than anticipated but still did fairly well by being an OK enough creator and knockdown shooter at 41% 3P 80% FT. If Cade is a bigger OJ Mayo, that’s a useful NBA player, but is it really a guy you take top 3?
Carmelo Anthony profiles similarly to Cade physically and stylistically as an iso scorer who relies on his jump shooting. But he crushes Cade on rebounds, with solidly better 2P% and assist:TOV while being 8 months younger and leading Syracuse to an NCAA title. Melo wasn’t the most efficient fellow in the NBA, so if Cade is a less efficient version of the same thing– is he really worth a top 3 pick?
The Limit of Shooting
While shooting is a vitally important part of basketball, it is its own skill in isolation and does not connect to other parts of the game. Especially not the physical or cerebral ones that lend themselves to greatness.
Players like Dirk and Durant have been able to dominate with shooting using their elite height and reach to get their shot off whenever they want. But Cade doesn’t have that same reach, and is going to need to rely on his basketball playing ability.
And if you watch him play, there are multiple issues that come up. He is not crafty or explosive enough to create many easy attempts for himself, and often bullies his way as close to the rim as possible until pulling up for a difficult contested shot.
While he is a willing passer who moves the ball in transition and sees the floor well, he is only a good but not great passer and detracts with turnovers as his loose handle often gets stripped and he frequently throws sloppy passes away.
He has a rudimentary approach to offense where he loves to spam the pass or shoot button without putting much thought into the quality of shot that ensues. In tandem with his loose handle, this leads to frequent turnovers for himself as well as his teammates who often receive his passes in difficult 1 on 2 situations.
These flaws would all be easier to forgive if he was more physically dominant, but he rebounds offensively as well as a small guard and gets to the line at an ordinary rate. He does not have the best motor or effort, and does not atone for his offensive mistakes with defensive dominance, and it is not clear that he is on track to become an above average defensive player in the NBA.
These sum to fairly significant flaws, and are not typical concerns for a top 3 pick let alone a consensus #1 overall.
Do the Numbers Reflect Reality?
To some extent he was in a suboptimal situation playing for a not so good NCAA coach surrounded by mostly defensive talent, but that is the case for most elite prospects. NCAA coaches and offenses are typically not good, but the true studs find a way to stuff the stat sheet anyhow.
There is some small possibility that he was affected by the pandemic, which caused him to underperform in the mental aspects of the game relative to his prior expectations. You would need to strongly believe that some combination of COVID and suboptimal situation dimmed his output to even think about him at #1.
But there is the other possibility that the guy has a basic operating system that was in effective in high school where he physically developed sooner than his peers and often was playing on all-star teams that could outrun everybody in transition. And now taking the step up to NCAA against guys physically closer to him, his limited basketball IQ is getting exposed. This is something that happens much more frequently to hyped prospects than having their talent hidden by poor NCAA situations, so it is the most likely explanation for his performance.
Also it is worth noting that if you want to give extra weight to his priors for other aspects, it is also worth considering he significantly outperformed his expectation as a shooter. If he shoots like his NCAA self and plays like his high school self he will be very good, but if he shoots like his high school self and plays like his NCAA self, he is going to be massively disappointing.
Is Cade Obviously Top 3 in this Draft?
Cade offers some major warts that are not typically stomached by top 3 picks, so why is beyond the shadow of a doubt in the top 3 in this draft? Because his shooting is THAT valuable? Because we are that certain that his situation dragged down his numbers in a way that has yet to happen with past top 3 picks? An explanation would be nice, because there is nothing on film or in his stat sheet that makes anything obvious other than he has a fairly easy path to a decent NBA starter.
But even that is far from a lock if he is going to be developed into a suckier Carmelo Anthony rather than a bigger Klay Thompson who provides elite 3 + D support.
Evan Mobley plays with a surgical precision in terms of his movement and decision making that obviously trumps Cade’s style of bludgeoning you to death with difficult shot attempts. He is hands down the better prospect.
It seems that some people have accepted that Mobley is better or it is close. But that’s where it ends. The idea that Cade might not be top 2 is a taboo idea in a world where prospects like RJ Barrett and Anthony Edwards were relentlessly bashed for warts arguably less significant than what Cade brings to the table.
Why do we need to take him over Jalen Suggs, who is cerebrally multiple tiers above Cade as well as more athletic and efficient? Cade is bigger and better at shooting, but it is not clear that this is more valuable.
Why do we need to take him above Scottie Barnes who is physically superior with slightly better dimensions, and far better offensive efficiency and defensive effort? Cade has a major shooting advantage and Barnes has nasty flaws in his defensive fundamentals that need improvement, but you are more likely to get a superstar from a guy like Barnes who needs to learn to shoot than a guy like Cade who can already shoot but needs to learn how to play.
Even after those guys, Franz Wagner offers pristine decision making and defensive play while having better dimensions than Cade and not being clearly worse at shooting. Cade had a better shooting signal this season, but Franz has made > 80% FT and taken a decent rate of 3PA since he was 16, and this is the first season that Cade did either.
Cade theoretically has more upside because of his creation that is less efficient than any top 3 pick basically ever. But why do we NEED to gamble on inefficient creation just in case it becomes efficient, especially in a non-elite athlete lacking a strong first step. They are the same age, and there is zero question that Franz is the better player right now. Per 100 stats:
2P
2PA
3P
3PA
FT
FTA
AST
TOV
Franz
5.9
10.5
2.3
6.8
4.4
5.3
5.6
2.4
Cade
6.5
14
3.6
8.9
7.6
8.9
5.4
6.2
You are basically stomaching an extra 3.8 Cade turnovers and 3.5 2PA than mostly brick for what? 2.1 more 3PA and 3.6 FTA? It’s not apples to apples since Michigan is a better offense with a better coach and Cade is playing a more difficult role, but come on now. Cade’s creation is mostly just more bricks and turnovers than Franz, and Franz is essentially a lock to be better defensively. If Cade isn’t a significantly better shooter who figures out how to navigate defenses that can match up with him athletically over time, he isn’t going to be a more useful NBAer than Franz.
I have already written about Cade’s numbers paling in comparison to those of Alperen Sengun, but let’s revisit since looking at their numbers side by side is so fascinating
Prospect
Age
eFG%
A:TO
OR%
FTr
Cade
19.3
0.515
0.86
2.3
0.39
Sengun
18.4
0.641
1.11
17.5
0.61
It is inherently more efficient to run offense through a perimeter ball handler like Cade rather than a post player like Sengun, but can anybody look at these numbers with a straight face and say that Cade is a clear favorite to be the better offensive player in the NBA?
And the crazy thing is Sengun isn’t even that far behind as a shooter and has superior steal and block rates. It is not clear who projects to be the better defensive player. Frankly is it not clear that Cade projects to be better at Sengun at anything outside of shooting, where Sengun could close the gap in time.
Wing Creators are Only Valuable when they are Good
There seems to be an assumption that because Cade was the #1 RSCI that he is an elite wing creator, and that all of his shortcomings can be attributed to bad teammates. But that is just not something that happens to prospects who are good enough to run an NBA offense based on every comparison that can be found in the past 20 years.
The most analogous prospect to Cade in terms of both distribution of strengths and weaknesses and playing situation is likely Khris Middleton. He played for Texas A&M who thrived on bully ball and defense, as their offense was driven by offensive rebounds and free throws with mediocre shot making and turnover rates during his sophomore season– much like Oklahoma State.
Prospect
Age
2P%
A:TO
OR%
FTr
Cade
19.3
0.461
0.86
2.3
0.39
Khris
19.4
0.492
1.04
8.2
0.418
Yet Middleton was slightly better across the board at the same age and still slid to round 2. This is in part because he was hidden by starting college early as a young freshman and battling injuries and bad 3P% variance as a junior when he missed 12 games and shot 26% behind the arc.
Cade was a much better NCAA shooter, but Middleton is a career 40% 3P, 88% FT shooter in the NBA, and it is not likely Cade is better by any significant margin.
But even based on his NBA success, he definitely was never a #1 overall talent. He is a highly useful secondary piece who provides a nice intersection of shooting, passing, and defense to be a low end all-star, but is only in the NBA finals because he is playing alongside 2x MVP Giannis.
And based on the numbers, Cade is a clear underdog to be as good as Middleton in the NBA. If you give extra weight to his priors and slightly better dimensions, then perhaps he is only a small underdog to be Middleton, but that is not the type of player you target at #1 overall.
This is especially true that when he is being drafted to be a primary creator instead of a complementary piece, which makes it more likely that he follows a suboptimal developmental path. This is what happened to Andrew Wiggins when he was overused as an inefficient high volume creator.
So when you are running the risk of getting a guy who is technically NBA caliber but somewhat gross to max like a different flavor of Andrew Wiggins, taller OJ Mayo, or less efficient Carmelo Anthony in the hopes of landing Khris Middleton or at best Jayson Tatum, but zero chance of Luka or Harden. That is not a guy who obviously belongs in the top 3, let alone #1 overall.
This Lottery is Good
It would be one thing to lock in Cade as #1 in a draft like last year where nobody really stood out in a sea of mediocrity. But this year has so many more interesting options at the top. Mobley is a legit #1 candidate, and then Suggs, Barnes, Franz, and Sengun are all nice consolation prizes.
Cade’s priors should count for something, especially in light of the pandemic adding randomness to the season. We cannot assume his NCAA performance was indicative of his precise self, so perhaps he is the correct #2 overall.
But at the same time, his NCAA warts were so nasty both on the stat sheet and on film, that it is difficult to treat his goodness with any certainty. It is simply not clear that he is one of the best 5 prospects in a talented lottery.
This may sound like a hot take at face value, but the only past top 3 pick who really shared his distribution of strengths and weaknesses was OJ Mayo, and he even pales in comparison to 2nd rounder Khris Middleton. So the real hot take is consensus’s idea that he is a clear #1 overall, as there is no information that even remotely supports the notion.
Trey Murphy has been skyrocketing up draft boards, rising from a largely unknown mid-major transfer from Rice last offseason to #21 overall in ESPN’s latest mock after an impressive junior season with Virginia.
At a glance, it is easy to see why. He shot 92.7% FT and 43.3% from 3 for the Cavs with a lightning quick release, he has excellent wing dimensions at 6’9″ with 7’0″ wingspan, and NBA athleticism with 23 dunks on the season out his total 32 made shots at the rim. He also seems to have good intangibles on top of checking some major boxes for a modern NBA 3 + D role player.
After seeing the success of Cam Johnson and Duncan Robinson, it makes sense why he would be an appetizing target after the high upside lottery picks are off the table.
But he also comes with some frustrating warts which makes him enigmatic. He is extremely skinny, and in spite of his dimensions and athleticism he rebounds like a guard. He also has close to zero ball skills, and is almost a complete non-threat to attack off the dribble.
Now one may say– who care if he creates? You can have your guards create shots for him and he will provide elite spacing gravity to help them out. But it isn’t that simple. In the last 5 possessions of Virginia’s 1 point loss to Duke, he was guarded by Duke’s worst defensive player 6’1″ Jeremy Roach. Virginia didn’t even attempt to attack the possible mismatch once, and they struggled to create offense, scoring only 2 points in the final 5 possessions.
This raises the question– how valuable is his spacing gravity if he cannot even exploit a mismatch by a bad defensive NCAA PG? If his shooting is going to turn games into a 4 on 4 minus the other team’s worst defensive player, that negates much of the value of his shooting ability.
The other concern is that whether he can actually hang defensively in the NBA. He is mobile and active, but Virginia often tries to hide him on the worst opposing offensive player. Which may seem OK since Virginia has historically elite defenses, but this is the first time in 8 years that they had a defense rated lower than #7 in Kenpom as they dropped all the way to #36 overall with more offensive minded personnel.
Before anybody drafts Murphy in round 1, they need to seriously consider the risk that he is bad at all aspects of the game other than shooting. How sharp can it be to draft a prospect in round 1 who as an NCAA junior often matched up with the opponents’ worst offensive player AND worst defensive player?
Of course, this doesn’t mean that Murphy can’t eventually become a useful NBA player. Let’s compare him to Duncan Robinson and Cam Johnson at similar ages:
Age
USG
ORtg
OR%
DR%
AST%
STL%
BLK%
Duncan
21.7
17.4
123.6
2.5
12.1
12.1
1.3
1.2
Cam
20.8
16.4
120.7
2.5
12.8
14.4
1.7
1
Trey
20.5
17.3
127.9
2.8
11.7
8.2
1.8
1.8
They are all very similar, and we definitely cannot rule out Murphy becoming that level of role player. But if there is one signal that enabled Cam and Duncan to make it in the NBA that may preclude Murphy, it’s their relatively significant advantages in assist rate indicating superior ball skills. Even though they are not often asked to create off the dribble, being able to attack closeouts and exploit mismatches is a crucial baseline skill to function in an NBA offense, and there is some clear risk that Murphy is so poor at this that it detracts from all of the positive value his shooting offers.
Both Duncan and Cam stayed for two more years, and Cam continued to improve while Duncan saw a dip in both his rebound and assist rates, as he was relegated to more of a spot up role once Michigan improved their creation in the backcourt. So it is not clear that Robinson is a better prospect than Murphy, as Trey could feasibly catch up to his ball skills in time. But Robinson also went undrafted for good reason, as there was no clear signal that he would be a useful NBA player at the time.
Further, Murphy’s assist rate for mid-major Rice was a paltry 8.5% last season, so he cannot share the excuse that he was surrounded by too much offensive talent to show off his creation ability. He needs to improve, possibly by a significant margin.
Collectively, it’s difficult to make the case that Murphy is on the same level of prospect of Cam Johnson. And even though it worked out, it still can be questioned whether Johnson was an intelligent gamble at #11 overall. He hit his absolute upside and is still just the 7th man for Phoenix, and hardly an integral piece to their playoff run.
Duncan Robinson’s level of goodness seems more clearly attainable for Murphy, and even then it’s worth questioning how good exactly that may be. Robinson looked like an UDFA steal last season making an otherworldly 44.6% from 3, this season after dropping to an ordinary level of elite at 40.8%, it is not clear that he is more than an ordinary rotation player.
And without many examples of similar one dimensional shooters making themselves useful NBA players, there is the substantial risk that Murphy is outright busts like everybody imagined Duncan Robinson would.
If we say Murphy’s range of outcomes is likely somewhere on the scale of bust to being a role player on the level of a one of a kind UDFA, is that really worth investing a first round pick?
Who is the real stretch 4 sleeper?
It is interesting that a mid-major transfer is getting first round hype, while there is a similar prospect projected to late in round 2 at #55 who was a former 5* recruit: Matthew Hurt.
Hurt’s stock suffers because of his limited physical tools, as he is below average in quickness and athleticism, and measured with a wingspan equal to his height at 6’9.5″. He also has a doughy physique with 15.2% body fat, and physically does not look the part of NBA player. But him and Trey have some strong similarities in statistical output:
Age
USG
ORtg
OR%
DR%
AST%
STL%
BLK%
Trey
20.5
17.3
127.9
2.8
11.7
8.2
1.8
1.8
Hurt
20.6
21
130.1
5.3
17.1
8.6
1.3
2.1
Hurt’s big advantage here are competent rebounding and a semblance of offensive creation ability. His offense off the dribble is largely based on mid-range pullups and turnarounds, which is not the most exciting offense. But he nevertheless shot a higher 2P% than Murphy (63.9% vs 62%) on approximately double the 2PA, and has shown he can at least do something to punish the opponent if they try to hide an undersized guard on him.
Murphy is no doubt the better shooter. Hurt has the higher career 3P% (42.1 vs 40.1) but Murphy has a better 3PA/100 (12.3 vs 9.3) and FT% (81.9 vs 73.7) as well as a quicker release. But if Hurt is a bigger threat to attack off the dribble, and can sustain a similar efficiency on higher usage, it is difficult to argue that he is not the superior offensive prospect collectively.
Defensively, Hurt’s lack of physical tools could make him a major liability and keep him off the NBA court. But he is a better rebounder than Murphy, less liable to get pushed around, and is also a higher IQ defensive player as he has better awareness and understands how to position himself to contain penetration better. He definitely won’t be a good defensive player, but he has some chance of becoming passable on that end.
If we are comparing the two defensively, it’s fuzzy and unclear who will be better between Hurt or Murphy. Both guys have a range of unplayably bad to passable. Perhaps it is right to give Murphy the edge based on his 2.5″ better length and athleticism and mobility, as he could close the gap on Hurt’s defensive IQ but Hurt is always going to be limited physically. It stands to reason he has more outs to land on the passable side of the spectrum.
But it’s difficult to make Murphy any more than a slight fave to be better on defense with all of his warts, whereas Hurt’s case to be offensively superior is a bit more clear.
Ultimately it is fairly close between the two. Both guys have a shot of becoming useful rotation players, and neither guy is going to be a star. But it is difficult to make a clear case for Murphy being the better prospect, so why expend a first round pick on him if Hurt can be had in mid-late round 2 or possibly even UDFA?
It’s great to land a Duncan Robinson out of nowhere, and Murphy is live to be just as good. But it seems like an unnecessarily risky proposition to use a first rounder on him when Duncan himself was UDFA and we have shooting prospects like Hurt and Joe Wieskamp (#54 ESPN) projected in the late 2nd this year.
UPDATE— After typing this out, it’s tough to be convinced that Murphy is really good or bad. These are all decent reasons to be skeptical, but it is difficult to compare him to a negative example to offset the Duncan Robinson and Cam Johnson comps.
The fact of the matter is that guys who are 6’9″, elite at shooting, and not slow as molasses are exceptionally difficult to find. Perhaps that is the right intersection of strengths, and having a good defensive IQ or being able to beat NCAA defenses off the dribble or rebound at the high major level are all trivial relative to the rare intersection of strengths.
Ultimately there is no reason to have any conviction that Murphy is not a 1st round prospect, and I ended up ranking him significantly above Hurt on my final big board. I was tempted to delete this article because I didn’t agree with my own conclusion after taking a few days to digest it all, but I have never deleted anything from the site and there are still valid reasons to be cautious in valuing Murphy, regardless of whether he hits his upside or not.
It’s all fun and good to try to predict the sleepers and value picks in the draft, but it is very difficult to know how players will develop. Even the top prospects with nasty warts such as Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green have clear all-star potential. The easiest way to get an edge in the draft is to just not draft the guys who aren’t talented enough to have any real upside and take anybody else projected in that range, so let’s run through them here.
Currently projected to go #7 overall, Mitchell is considered a defensive stopper in the Patrick Beverley mold. He is nicknamed “off night” for his propensity to shut down his opposing matchup, and he has a quick first step, passable floor general skills, and showed off an improved 44.7% 3P shot as a junior, playing an integral role on Baylor’s championship teams.
But there are a few problems. First– there is a very low cap to the defense that 6’1 players provide. It is insane to target a Patrick Beverley in the lottery, because that just isn’t a high enough upside compared to the other players available. Second– if you are comparing a prospect to a one of a kind player like PatBev, they better measure similarly based on pre-draft.
Both guys are 6’1″, but Mitchell’s wingspan is 3″ shorter than PatBev’s at 6’4″ vs 6’7″ which is a bad start. Now let’s compare some of their college stats that indicate defensive potential based on Mitchell’s 2 seasons at Baylor vs PatBev’s 2 seasons at Arkansas:
Age
OR%
DR%
STL%
BLK%
FTr
Davion
21.8
1.4
8.3
3
1.3
0.254
PatBev
19
4.1
14.5
2.6
1.3
0.396
Aside from the fact that Davion is 3 years older during this sample, he also gets destroyed at the physicality aspects of the game in rebounding and drawing free throws. While their steals and blocks are similar, if you look at Davion’s 19 year old freshman season when he was a similar age he was much worse at 1.7% STL 0.2% BLK.
Right away this makes it ridiculous to project a strong defensive output– if you are a small guy you need every factor in your favor to make an impact on this end. 3″ less length with significantly less physicality is enough to completely nullify this comparison. But let’s keep going, just for fun.
Now let’s compare PatBev’s 18 year old freshman season to Davion’s 21 year old junior year:
Age
USG
ORtg
AST%
A:TO
TS%
Davion
21.3
19.1
100.5
22.3
1.70
0.503
PatBev
18.5
20.2
114.3
18.2
1.57
0.582
Beverley is not known for his offense, but at 3 years young absolutely destroyed Davion offensively. He took a step back as a sophomore, but was still 2 years younger and clearly better. He was painfully obviously the better prospect on both ends, yet he still slid to #42 overall because a 6’1″ 3 + D guy is a low upside target. Davion somehow being projected to go top 10 based on this comparison is nothing short of madness.
The counterargument in Davion’s favor is that he has A+ intangibles and made a big senior leap, so perhaps he can catch up over time. But a big part of that leap is his 3P% increasing from 32.4% to 44.7%, while his FT% slightly dropped from 66.2% to 64.1%. He improved his shooting to some extent, but it still not clear he is even an average NBA shooter.
It’s extremely difficult to find players as limited as Davion at age 21 who ended up becoming good NBA players. Most guys who break pre-draft stat models are young, physical monsters like Giannis or Jaylen Brown, not old 6’1″ guys with a large sample of being subpar by NBA standards.
The most offensively challenged upperclassman to become an NBA starter may have been Eric Snow who averaged just 6.8 points as a junior and 10.8 as a senior in seasons that straddled Davion’s junior age. If you average those seasons he is about 2 months younger than Davion, and he averaged 10.8 pts and 9 assists per 40 compared to 12.2 pts and 4.7 assists for Mitchell. He only scored slightly less, but had nearly double the assist rate on top of being 2″ taller and better rebound, steal, and free throw rates.
Snow isn’t a realistic Davion comp as he had significant size, passing, and defensive advantages and his lack of scoring was largely due to terrible shooting that he eventually improved.
If we are looking for 6’1″ offensively challenged guys, the best comps are Earl Watson and Chris Duhon. In this case we will be as generous as possible to Davion, and compare their per 40 minute senior seasons to the mean average of his junior and senior years:
Age
Pts
REB
AST
TOV
STL
2P%
FT%
FTr
Duhon
21.3
11.3
4.6
6.9
3.2
2.5
0.514
0.722
0.292
Watson
21.6
16.9
4.2
6
3.9
2.2
0.556
0.636
0.401
Davion
21.8
14.6
3.3
5.4
2.9
2.1
0.519
0.653
0.254
First, both guys were better rebounders, got to the line more frequently, and had slightly higher steal rates which all imply better physicality and defense. Then if we disregard Davion’s fluky 3P%, his offense does not stand out as superior to these guys in any way. Further, Watson was creating this level of offense for 2 prior years while Duhon was a top 10 recruit who was churning out this production all 4 years at Duke, which implies they have stronger baselines of talent level and are more natural floor generals.
If all 3 of these guys are in the same draft, it should be a clear Duhon > Watson > Davion ranking. Both Duhon and Watson went in round 2, and peaked as fringe starters, which is about the pinnacle of optimism for Mitchell. And even that is a bit of a stretch since these are the most optimistic possible comparisons from the past 30 years of the draft, and Davion STILL has some clear disadvantages with no real advantages.
It’s a great story that this kid worked his way up from a terrible NCAA freshmen to an OK-ish redshirt sophomore to a good junior who played a major role on a championship team, but that just isn’t a formula that produces NBA players in general, let alone good ones.
His hype is so mindblowing that it’s hard to know where to rank him. It is not even clear that he is one of the top 60 prospects in the draft. He definitely should not be going in round 1, let alone the top 10.
Draft Instead: Miles McBride (#33)
His teammate Jared Butler would have been one clear answer, but it seems that he may not cleared to play in the NBA due to a heart condition.
Instead, we can look at early round 2 where Miles McBride is projected to go #33 overall and completely waffle crushes him at all basketball related abilities.
McBride measured 1.25″ taller and 4.5″ longer at 6’2.5 with a 6’8.75″ wingspan, which actually gives him slightly better PatBev dimensions and makes that comp reasonable for him. Second, if we compare their output on the floor, it is not close between the two. Per 100 possessions:
Age
Pts
REB
AST
TOV
STL
2P%
3P%
FT%
FTr
McBride
20.1
26.3
6.5
8
3
3.1
0.439
0.414
0.813
0.338
Davion
21.8
21.5
4.8
8.3
4.2
3
0.519
0.376
0.653
0.254
Once again we are mushing together Davion’s junior and senior seasons, which may seem unfair since it disregards his improvability. But college seasons are small samples littered with variance, and 6’1″ players like Mitchell simply do not go on parabolic trajectories once they are legal to drink alcohol. Further in an odd season afflicted by pandemic, there should be an advantage to being an upperclassmen on an elite team that returns most key players. You cannot accurately analyze him based on his senior season in a vacuum.
Davion has a better first step and creates his own shot at the rim at about double the rate of McBride: 1.32 per 40 vs 0.65. This is reflected in his clearly superior 2P%. But that’s where the fun ends for Mitchell. McBride is almost 2 full years younger, a significantly better shooter, and beat Davion in the physical categories of rebounds and free throw rate (this is becoming a consistent theme in guys who succeeded in the NBA). He also is a better floor general, with a significant AST:TOV edge in spite of his youth.
If you want to target a guy to fill the PatBev role, McBride is clearly the guy. He is likely slightly underrated and should be valued somewhere in the 20’s, and Mitchell should be valued considerably lower.
If you take Mitchell in the lottery when McBride is available on the fringe of round 1, you failed at drafting.
If you want to make one tweak to the consensus board to be +EV, just take Davion Mitchell off your board and congratulations: you are now ahead of the curve!
Red Flags:
Corey Kispert 6’7″ SF Gonzaga, ESPN: #13
After that wall of text breaking down Mitchell, Kispert is an easier task:
Most people agree that Joe Wieskamp is the better prospect on paper than Kispert, and he is available in round 2! In reality they are closer than this poll suggests, as Kispert has a quicker release and a better looking shot. But Wieskamp has a significant 4″ reach advantage with better rebounds, steals, and blocks, which gives him more defensive potential.
There is no reason why Kispert cannot be an NBA rotation player as a 6’7″ efficient knockdown shooter, but his upside is far too limited to take in the lottery. He is currently projected at #13 and Wieskamp at #54. If you want a shooter on the wing, it’s a clear moneyball play to target Wieskamp in round 2 and take somebody with much more upside than Kispert in the late lotto.
Kai Jones, 6’11” Texas, ESPN: #14
At a glance Jones has appeal as an athletic 6’11” who can finish lobs, and has a passable outside shot making 38.2% from 3 an 68.9% FT as a sophomore for Texas.
But if you give him a closer look, you run into the enigma that he doesn’t know how to play basketball and it is not clear how he fits into a NBA lineup. He has the skill level of a center but plays more like a big wing defensively, which is not ideal.
Even though he seems like a guy who can make an open shot, he has a low 3PA rate of 3.3 attempts per 100 and at 67.7% FT from his career he still projects to be more of a barely passable shooter than an actively good one. And he is a non-handler with a bad assist to turnover ratio at 0.6 vs 1.4 per game, which strongly implies that he will struggle to play the perimeter in the NBA.
Defensively he cannot really play center. His 5.3% blk rate is more like a PF than an NBA rim protector, and his 8.9%/14.4% rebound rates are more like a SF.
Even if he can make an open shot he is going to depress an NBA offense with his lack of creation. If you are hoping for the next Jerami Grant, he had a higher usage (21.6 vs 18.2) and much better assist (1.4) to turnover (1.2) as a 2 month younger sophomore. And in spite of being 3.75″ shorter, he measured with 1″ better wingspan (7’2.75″ vs 7’1.75″) and is the more explosive athlete. He made 0 three pointers as a sophomore and then developed into a solid NBA 3 point shooter and now you have a decent perimeter player. That is not a possibility for Kai.
If you are hoping for the next Christian Wood, then good luck with that. Let’s compare their sophomore seasons per 100 possessions:
Age
Pts
Rebs
Ast
Tov
Stl
Blk
Wood
19.3
29.6
18.7
2.4
4.5
0.6
5.1
Kai
19.9
22.3
12.2
1.5
3.5
2.1
2.3
Wood completely destroys him across the board outside of steals, while being 8 months younger and 1.5″ longer. He also had the better career NCAA FT% (74.7 vs 67.7) and 3PA rate (5.7 vs 3.3), and he somehow went undrafted.
The draft can be strange and funny how randomly guys get hyped out of nowhere. A projected lotto pick shouldn’t get crushed this hard by a past undrafted free agent, but here we are with Kai looking like a homeless man’s version of Christian Wood. And what makes it even stranger is that he didn’t even play a major role for his NCAA team, as he only started 4 of his 26 games as a sophomore.
If we are being optimistic, his steal rate is a bit of a saving grace, and maybe he can be some sort of wing stopper defensively who can squeak by as a small 5 on occasions. But his ball skills are just so so bad for a guy who is not a full time center on D, he simply does not belong in round 1.
Everybody is so down on drafting bigs, you can pretty much throw a dart at any random tall person in the draft and they are going to be a more attractive value proposition than Jones.
First let’s discuss the high comedy that is that rating Jones above Alperen Sengun who won Turkish League MVP at age 18. He has similar dimensions to Jones, and posted better steal and block rates at 2.6/5.9 vs 2.0/5.3. Jones is more athletic, but Sengun has a much higher IQ and every question that is directed toward Sengun’s defensive ability needs to be asked about Jones just as strongly. His athleticism may give him a bit more hope on this end, but he is at best a slight favorite to be better than Sengun defensively.
And outside of that Sengun destroys him to a comical extent. Sengun nearly doubles him up on the glass at 17.5/23.4 vs 8.9/14.4 in ORB%/DRB%. He is an obviously better shooting making 79.4% FT vs Kai’s 67.7%. And he has a higher usage at 26.7 vs 18.0 yet he STILL has a much better assist:TOV at 2.7 vs 2.4 compared to 0.6 vs 1.4 a higher 2P% at 67.4 vs 64.2% all while being an entire 1.5 years younger.
The disparity in skill and IQ between Sengun and Jones is so preposterous such that Jones’ superior athleticism is practically trivial. They are clearly multiple tiers apart as prospects.
Then we can move onto Usman Garuba, who is slotted in a reasonable range and has similar steal, blocks, and shooting rates, But has maybe 0.5 to 1″ better wingspan, better assist:TOV, and better rebounding.
Day’Ron Sharpe is a different type of big but he is also better, so why not throw him a shout out.
Charles Bassey is in a similar boat of shooting, perhaps slightly better with career 76.8% FT, excellent 2P%, and shoddy assist:TOV. But he actually rebounds and blocks shots like a big man, and you just can’t take the guy who defends and rebounds like a wing above him.
Then if we want a skinny 6’11” guy who probably gets destroyed on D, let’s roll with Santi Aldama in the undrafted pile over Jones. Aldama is definitely less athletic than Jones, but has similar steal (1.7) and block (5.6) rates and is much more intelligent and skilled offensively. He only made 68.6% FT 38.6% 3P as a sophomore and 63.9% and 30.6% for his career, but he attempted 3PA at nearly triple the rate of 9.4 per 100 vs 3.3 for Jones and his stroke looks smoother.
Aldama is likely the better shooter and is far more skilled overall on offense as he is super coordinated for a big man and carried 30.5% usage with an efficient 58.5% 2P and 2.3 assists vs 3.2 turnovers per game. His D is a greater cause for concern than Jones as he is skinnier and less athletic, but it’s just a more interesting flier to bet on the highly skilled and coordinated guy with good feel than it is to bet on the athlete with sorely limited skill and IQ.
Tre Mann, 6’4″ PG Florida, ESPN: #23
At a glance Mann seems like an interesting combo guard prospect, as he offers a bit of everything from creation to passing to shooting, as the former 5* recruit had a breakout sophomore season for Florida.
But digging deeper there are a few causes for concern. First– his physical profile is littered with flags. He has a t-rex wingspan at 6’4″ and he is skinny and not athletic, which basically makes him a PG sized defensive player with no + tools.
These players can be useful if they are wizards offensively, but Tre is merely pretty good in terms of skill level. He has enough handle and shake to get to the rim in a pinch, but his creation largely hinges on making floaters, as he lacks the burst to blow by more athletic defensive players. And he is more of a combo guard than a true point as he had only slightly more assists (3.5) than turnovers (2.8) as a sophomore.
He did shoot very well as a sophomore, making 40.2% from 3 and 83.1% FT, but that’s not much to complement a physically deficient PG with only a pinch of creation.
He also had a terrible freshman season, which is scary. As mentioned regarding Davion Mitchell, big leaps are a stronger signal of limited baseline talent than they are outlier improvability. If a guy has bad tools and isn’t a skill wizard, there are only so many gains to be made. If he needed a year to adjust to the physicality of college, that may be a sign that he will never adjust to the physicality of the NBA.
And it is maddeningly difficult to find a comp. Randy Foye got off to a similarly inefficient start to his college career and is 1″ shorter, but is 2″ longer, much stronger, and more athletic which gives him more potential to capitalize on gains throughout his career.
Luke Kennard has physical similarities, but is 1.25″ taller and longer and was just better at basketball as both a freshman and sophomore.
When it feels like we are reaching to compare Mann to fringe starters, that’s a good sign that he doesn’t belong in round 1. The nicest thing that can be said about him is that if Bryn Forbes and Seth Curry can be rotation NBA players, he can too as he does offer a bit more creation than those guys.
But it is far from a guarantee that he is a great shooter, as he shot poorly as an NCAA freshman to dock his two year %’s to 34.9% 3P 78.8% FT. Curry and Forbes were knockdown shooters as freshmen, and they were also undrafted free agents. You don’t chase this archetype in round 1 or early round 2. Maybe in mid-late round 2 it is fine since he can be a slightly better version of Forbes or Curry, but it’s tough to get too excited.
Draft Instead: Jaden Springer (#29 ESPN), Cam Thomas (#25), Quentin Grimes (#28), Bones Hyland (#30), Ayo Dosunmu (#32), Josh Christopher (#34), Jason Preston (#43), Joel Ayayi (#49)
The one player that would be a glaring error to pass in favor of Mann is Jaden Springer. They measured at the same height of 6’4.25″, but Springer is functionally bigger with 6’7.75″ wingspan and stronger at 202 vs 177 pounds. Further, Springer is the better defensive prospect posting 2.7%/2.0% stl/blk vs 2.2%/0.4% for Mann while also eye testing as the better defensive player. Springer is still undersized for a SG, but he can at least hang with SG’s defensively on top of being the better player on this end, which sums to a healthy chunk of value in Springer’s favor.
Offensively, they have strikingly similar outputs:
Age
Pts
Ast
Tov
2P%
3PA
3P%
FT%
Jaden
18.3
28.1
6.6
5.4
0.475
4.1
0.435
0.81
Tre
19.9
28.1
6.1
5
0.494
8.2
0.402
0.831
Springer creates his own shot at the rim slightly more (1.23 vs 1.03 per 40), and otherwise these guys are basically twins. Tre loves to pullup for floaters, Jaden loves to pullup for midrangers. Tre has double the 3PA rate and may be the slightly better shooting prospect, and it may seem reasonable to give him the slight advantage on this end.
That is until we remember that Springer is 1 year 8 months younger, and this completely disregards Mann’s disastrous freshman year. Let’s see what happens when we smush Mann’s two seasons together
Age
Pts
Ast
Tov
2P%
3PA
3P%
FT%
Jaden
18.3
28.1
6.6
5.4
0.475
4.1
0.435
0.81
Tre
19.5
24.3
4.6
4.5
0.477
8.6
0.349
0.788
Now Jaden is clearly better offensively, still more than a full year younger, physically superior, and better on defense and all we can really do is feel sad if any team actually drafts Mann higher.
Everybody else is a major step down from Springer who is criminally underrated at #29 and belongs in the lottery. But we can run through them quickly:
Cam Thomas may be slightly overrated at #25 as a 6’3″ one dimensional shooter, but he made 88.2% FT as a freshman and got off a huge volume of shots without turning it over. And he measured with a +4.5″ wingspan in 2019 and has better strength and athleticism. Ultimately he has more unique selling points that make him a better value proposition than Mann.
Quentin Grimes is a former top 10 recruit who is also a good shooter making 40.3% 3P 78.8% FT as a junior with a monstrous 15.3 3PA/100. He also has much more defensive potential with an extra 1″ height, 4″ length, and 32 pounds of beef. He carries a high usage and positive assist:TOV ratio, and fits a stronger 3 + D archetype than Mann. Mann’s creation advantages with his floater game just don’t shift the scales back enough in his favor.
Bones Hyland is a similar mold to Mann as a combo guard who can shoot, but he has a stronger shooter making 86.2% FT as a sophomore with a massively better 3PA rate at 14.3 per 100 and a better career 3P% at 39.9 vs 34.9%. He is nicknamed Bones due to his skinny frame, actually weighing 8 pounds less than Mann at 169 but his 6’9.25″ nevertheless gives him more defensive potential.
Dosunmu offers more creation, less shooting, and much better physical tools with 1″ height, 6″ length, and better frame.
Christopher fits the common trend of being 5″ longer, 37 pounds stronger, more athletic, and not particularly worse at basketball.
Jason Preston is a unique flier as his defense is very bad and he is similarly skinny to Mann, but at least he has 6’8.5″ wingspan and wizard like passing ability to make him an arguably more interesting flier.
Joel Ayayi rounds this out unsurprisingly as a guy who projects to be an efficient role player but is bigger than Mann with more defensive potential.
Josh Primo, 6’5″ SG Alabama, ESPN: #26
Primo is the youngest player in the draft, not turning 19 until December. He also boasts a promising outside shot, making 38.1% from 3P and 75% FT as an NCAA freshman.
And that’s about where the good news ends. He has mediocre physical tools for a SG at 6’5″ with 6’9″ wingspan and average at best athleticism. He isn’t much of a rebounder or defensive playmaker, and his ball skills are vastly subpar for a SG as he averaged a miserable 1.5 assists vs 2.4 turnovers per 40, which is brutally bad for a 17 usg spot up SG.
Granted, his extreme youth gives him hope of improving, and through that lens he may not be completely screwed as a ball handler. But he is off to such a poor start it is difficult to get excited. We don’t have many examples of players who started school this young, but the most similar comparison may be Svi Mykhailiuk who actually was 6 months younger when he enrolled at Kansas.
Svi had odd dimensions with 3″ more height and 4.5″ less wingspan, but let’s say they are functionally the same size and make a Svi sandwich out of his freshman and sophomore seasons the bread to Primo’s freshman meat:
Age
3PA
3P%
FTA
FT%
TRB
AST
TOV
STL
BLK
Svi
17.5
10.7
0.29
1.2
0.83
6.4
3.5
3.1
1.6
0.2
Primo
18
9
0.38
3.5
0.75
8
2
3.4
1.4
0.7
Svi
18.5
11.8
0.40
3.2
0.68
6
4.1
3.3
1.5
0.6
Svi only played 259 minutes as a freshman, but you can see his rate stats were fairly stable to the next year and his main difference is that his shots happened to fall in the next year.
Primo played larger with slightly better rebounds, blocks, and free throws draw, but Svi had a notable advantage in assist rate and approximately 2x’d Primo’s assist:TOV ratio in each of his first two seasons.
Primo could develop his ball skills to catch up with Svi in time, but with such a poor starting point he will almost certainly be worse than the Svi Rex. And for a perimeter player, this is a far more significant handicap than Primo’s physicality edge.
It’s tough to make any bold proclamations about somebody as young as Primo. Maybe he has an outlier skill curve, and becomes an adequate passer and handler and historically good shooter. Maybe he still has a little growth spurt remaining, maybe his body and athleticism develop better than expected with age. He isn’t drawing dead to surpass Svi and become something useful over time.
But his trajectory currently looks weaker than Svi at the same age, and Svi went 47th overall and is a fringe NBA rotation player. So how is taking Primo in round 1 anything other than wishful thinking with so many limitations and such little to build on at this stage? He is going to be fringey or worse a huge % of the time, and even when he hits he is likely to be an ordinary role player.
Draft Instead: All of the same guys listed above Mann
Suggs projects as a clear top 5 pick in this draft, as he is an athletic guard with excellent basketball IQ and a well rounded skill set with a clear path to NBA usefulness.
The big question is: for a PG sized guy at 6’4″ with 6’6″ wingspan, does he bring enough offensive upside to the table relative to his hype? In this regard he has a clear comparison to another recent high lottery pick: Marcus Smart. They have a number of statistical parallels:
Age
Usg
ORtg
ORB%
DRB%
AST%
BLK%
STL%
AST:TOV
Suggs
19.6
25.4
110.7
2.7
18
23.7
1.1
3.5
1.55
Smart
19.8
30.3
110.4
5.1
14.9
30.1
1.9
5
1.80
FTr
2P%
3PA/100
3P%
FT%
Height
Wing
Suggs
0.367
0.588
6.4
0.337
0.761
6’4
6’6
Smart
0.648
0.514
8.1
0.295
0.751
6’3
6’9
Right off the bat the upside concerns are apparent. Suggs does not have Smart’s length, and he is not as disruptive as Smart who posted better steal and block rates. Smart is also the more physical player drawing more free throws. Both players also excel defensively on film, although Suggs is slightly more mistake prone. Smart offers approximately the maximum defensive value for combo guard size, and while Suggs is not far behind, he does project to be at least slightly worse on this end than Smart.
This means that Suggs needs to pick up the slack on offense, and do so by a significant margin to be more than a quality role player like Smart. He had similar efficiency on lower usage, a lower assist rate, worse assist:TOV, and a similar shooting signal. At a glance, it is clear why Suggs is currently not projected top 3, as there is no guarantee that he has the offensive skill to offer a big upside tail for his size.
What is his path to greatness?
His biggest advantage over Smart is a better first step, that he uses to get to the rim with greater frequency. Based on play by play data, he created his own shot at the rim in the halfcourt 1.62 times per 40 vs 1.07 for Smart. Smart’s free throw rate indicates his physicality which is a strength on defense, but offensively he was more of a pure bully which is difficult to translate to the NBA for a guard.
Also, Suggs’ pedestrian assist rate may be deceiving considering he was playing on one of the best NCAA offenses of all time for Gonzaga that was absolutely loaded with ball handlers and scorers. They typically played 3 guard lineups, and everybody’s assist rate took a hit:
19-20
20-21
Suggs
N/A
23.7
Nembhard
33.1
20.2
Cook
27.2
17.5
Ayayi
16.6
12.6
Suggs also eye tests as much better than his assist rate, as he sees the floor well and makes excellent reads. He likely would have been able to successfully handle a bigger usage with a higher assist rate on an ordinary NCAA team that wasn’t insanely loaded with offensive talent.
The only cause for concern is that many of his best assists were in transition, and it is not clear if he has the handle to make advanced passes off the dribble against set defenses. But in terms of vision and IQ, he has elite passing upside.
He also should be a better shooter than Smart, as Smart’s outside shot has developed at a mediocre rate in the NBA while being slightly worse in college.
While he does not project to quite match Smart’s defense, Suggs should be better offensively, possibly by a significant margin.
Let’s Talk About Upside
It’s difficult to come up with perfect upside comps for Suggs, but he has one clearly attainable one that stands out: Jrue Holiday.
Age
Usg
ORtg
ORB%
DRB%
AST%
BLK%
STL%
AST:TOV
Suggs
19.6
25.4
110.7
2.7
18
23.7
1.1
3.5
1.55
Jrue
18.6
20.7
106.2
5.9
11.9
23.8
2.1
3.5
1.72
FTr
2P%
3PA/100
3P%
FT%
Height
Wing
Suggs
0.367
0.588
6.4
0.337
0.761
6’4
6’6
Jrue
0.249
0.528
5.7
0.307
0.725
6’3
6’7
Jrue shared the handicap of having to share ballhandling duties with another PG, as he played alongside senior Darren Collison at UCLA. He was significantly less effective on offense than Suggs, although much of this could be chalked up to his 1 year youth advantage as guards often make a big leap from age 18 to 19. Given that he was #2 RSCI and NBA ready as a rookie, it would be fair to expect him to post similar production to Suggs had he stayed for his sophomore season.
Overall they are similar as they thrive on defensive IQ with intelligent passing with decent enough skills offensively. And Suggs is the better athlete, so he does not need all that much to go right to become Jrue level or better.
But How Much Better?
This is where it gets murky, as it is difficult to find anybody with more than a vaguely similar distribution to Suggs. You need to go back to the 90’s to find any half decent upside comps, per 40 stats used:
Jason Kidd is an interesting comp as he was also an exceptionally cerebral player who thrived with transition passing and defense, and was an old freshman:
Age
Pts
Rebs
Asts
Stls
Blks
TOVs
2P%
3P%
FT%
Kidd
19.8
16.4
6.2
9.6
4.8
0.3
4.9
0.537
0.286
0.657
Suggs
19.6
19.9
7.4
6.3
2.6
0.5
4.1
0.588
0.337
0.761
Suggs was a better shot maker, but Kidd’s instincts were on a different level with much better assist and steal rates. Suggs could have maybe posted a better assist rate elsewhere as aforementioned, but that assist rate for Kidd is insane. Granted it dropped to 3.6 as a sophomore, but it still makes it difficult to project Suggs on Kidd’s level as a defensive player or passer. He can make up with scoring, but it is overall a highly imperfect perfect comp.
Age
Pts
Rebs
Asts
Stls
Blks
TOVs
2P%
3P%
FT%
Suggs
19.6
19.9
7.4
6.3
2.6
0.5
4.1
0.588
0.337
0.761
Baron
19.7
20.7
4.7
6.7
3.3
0.5
4.3
0.548
0.343
0.599
Baron Davis is a bit more athletic than Suggs, but Suggs is 1″ taller. And Baron’s better steal rate can’t really be glazed over. There are some clear similarities here, but once again not perfect.
Age
Pts
Rebs
Asts
Stls
Blks
TOVs
2P%
3P%
FT%
Suggs
19.6
19.9
7.4
6.3
2.6
0.5
4.1
0.588
0.337
0.761
Payton
19.5
15.2
3.5
7.8
2.4
0.4
3.6
0.514
0.397
0.699
Payton
20.5
21.2
4.3
8.6
3.2
0.6
3.2
0.56
0.385
0.677
Gary Payton’s breakout junior year is included as it is likely more indicative of his true value. It’s unlikely that Suggs’ passing is as saucy or that his defense is as elite as the glove, but they are the same height and athletically similar so it may be somewhere in his range of possibilities if we want to envision his most optimistic outcome.
Conclusion
Suggs is a relatively safe pick as he comes as a polished as a high IQ player who has the athleticism to make plays, and it is difficult to see him not being a useful NBAer.
Most likely he will be somewhere on a scale of Marcus Smart to Jrue Holiday level of goodness. But because he is more athletic than both, he should have upside to surpass Jrue if things go well for him.
But it is still unclear exactly how much upside he has. Both because it is difficult to find a satisfactory comparison for him, and because it is unclear exactly how good his passing would be if given complete control of an offense rather than sharing the load on an excessively talented NCAA team.
As far as this draft goes, the only guy he is clearly below is Evan Mobley who is super well rounded with more upside and fewer limitations.
After that, it’s difficult to compare Suggs to Cade Cunningham and Scottie Barnes. Cade and Barnes are in higher upside molds, but Suggs is a safer bet to reach his upside. We likely don’t have enough information to rank those 3 with any confidence.
It is easier to compare him to Jalen Green, also sized like a small SG. Green is a bit taller, longer, and more athletic with better shooting and creation ability. But Suggs is stronger with vastly better passing and defense, more potential to play PG, and should fit in a wider range of lineups. It’s understandable why many folks prefer Green, but Suggs feel, IQ, and well roundedness should give him the edge.
There is something to be said for a good median outcome with decent enough upside. Consider 2014– Marcus Smart arguably was the best non-Embiid selection in the lottery in spite of being somewhat of an unsexy role player. And he was retained for a reasonable 4 years @ $52 million compared to Andrew Wiggins’s ridiculous 5/147 extension.
Ultimately Suggs is a solid and safe pick, and once Mobley is off the board it is difficult to see how he could be a bad selection.
With the lottery order being determined tonight, let’s run through the prospects at stake
Tier 1: Likely star
Evan Mobley 7′ PF/C USC
Mobley has good dimensions for a big at 7′ and 7’4 and has a unique combination of fluidity and passing for his size.
He is one of the best passing bigs in recent memory, as he averaged more assists (2.4) than turnovers (2.2). He is physically similar to Chris Bosh (1.2 vs 2.3) and has Joel Embiid’s fluidity (1.4 vs 2.4), but is a much better passer than both as NCAA freshmen. He isn’t quite Nikola Jokic who averaged 2.5 vs 1.5 in the Adriatic league while being 8 months younger, but he is a much better athlete than Jokic.
Given that he is able to play with precision both physically and mentally, he has an easy path to becoming a highly efficient NBA player.
Passing and height pair particularly well because he can pass over the defense, and because passing has a strong correlation with defensive ability. He was a very good rim protector for USC, anchoring the 6th best defense in the country with 2nd lowest 2P%.
His team massively overachieved overall, as he led a team of mediocre transfers that probably should have missed the tournament to the elite 8 and #6 kenpom ranking. This was by far Andy Enfield’s best team ever, as he peaked at #49 in 7 prior seasons at USC.
His shooting is acceptable for a big at 69.4% FT and 30% 3P, but a bit of a question mark.
His biggest weakness is his thin frame makes him a mediocre rebounder and prone to getting bullied by stronger bigs. He will often work as a 5 in the NBA, but may need to slide to the 4 when he faces a stronger big like Jokic or Embiid. This is the flaw that likely prevents him from being a generational prospect and Kevin Garnett level hall of famer, but it’s really the only thing to dislike.
Overall Mobley is loaded with unique strengths with limited flaws in his game, and has an easy path to stardom. He is not quite a lock star but since he is more well rounded and less flawed than everybody else in the draft, he should be the easy choice at #1 overall.
Tier 2: Possible stars with a few warts to work through
2. Scottie Barnes 6’8″ PG FSU
I have written an extensive analysis of Barnes, but the cliff notes are that he checks every box for upside in a way that we have rarely seen before. He is 6’8″ with a 7’2.75″ wingspan, and while not the most explosive athlete is fluid and agile with a good handle. He also is an exceptionally good passer for his dimensions and plays under control making good decisions with the ball.
He also had a good assist to turnover rate for any height at 1.66. For perspective, this was higher than Steve Nash’s assist:TOV ratio for his first 3 seasons at Santa Clara until his senior season edges out Barnes at 1.69.
He used his length to be disruptive defensively, and often guarded opposing PG’s, although not always well as he was prone to getting beat off the dribble and defensive lapses. He has excellent upside on defense but is currently a work in progress on that end.
His biggest question mark is his shooting as he only made 62.1% FT and 27.5% 3P for FSU. But he had a tiny sample of FTA at 41/66, and in a much bigger pre-NCAA sample he shot 67.5% (166/246) and his form doesn’t look too bad.
If he can eventually become a reliable NBA 3 point shooter and improve defensively, Barnes essentially has an uncapped upside and can make teams feel awfully bad for passing on him.
3. Jalen Suggs 6’4 PG Gonzaga
Suggs is slippery to pin down, as there have not been many prospects to similar to him. The scary angle is that he is a 6’4″ combo guard who recently turned 20 and does not have the best shooting or handle, which is not the ideal archetype to take in the top 3.
But the upside is that he seems to be good at basketball, and may be a big athletic PG who can do it all. He did not play point guard full time for Gonzaga as they often played 3 guards capable of running an offense, and everybody’s assist rate suffered for it. Andrew Nembhard dropped from 33.1% at Florida to 20.2% for Gonzaga, Joel Ayayi dropped from 16.6% the prior season to 12.6%, and Aaron Cook dropped from 27.2% at Southern Illinois to 17.5% for Gonzaga.
Suggs led the team with 23.7% assist rate, and had a solid 1.55 assist to turnover ratio. Given that he also showed exceptional instincts defensively with a 3.5% steal rate, he likely has the vision and instincts to be a good decision maker with the ball as a full time handler.
The question is exactly how much he will be able to create offensively. He is a good athlete but not elite, and his handle can stand to improve as well.
He can get to the rim and finish against set defenses proficiently enough to have a big upside on that end, but whether he hits his upside largely hinges on how much his handling and shooting improve, as he is a capable but not great shooter at 76.1% FT 33.7% 3P.
It’s difficult to come up with a satisfactory comp for him, but he is something like a John Wall or Derrick Rose hybrid with Marcus Smart, where he trades a notch of athleticism for better instincts and IQ.
Perhaps it is crazy to rank a prospect who is so much smaller and worse at shooting above Cade, but Suggs smashes the eye test as a guy who knows how to play and doesn’t have any major weaknesses outside of some minor questions about his skill level.
It is easy to see why he has so much hype, as he has excellent wing dimensions at 6’8″ with a 7’1″ wingspan and is a great shooter for any size as he made 40% 3P and 84.6% FT as freshman for Oklahoma State. He also has a point forward skill set with a 20.4% assist rate and showed competent switch-ability on defense, and it’s just not common to see a prospect with this intersection of strengths.
But before getting too excited with his strengths, Cade has some serious flags to address. First, his assist to turnover ratio was awful at 3.5 vs 4.0. From watching film, his passing just isn’t on the level of the other guys in this tier. He often makes bad decisions, throwing turnovers into traffic or feeding teammates in unfavorable positions that lead to them getting blocked or turning it over.
Further, his self creation was inefficient as he has a somewhat loose handle and was prone to getting stripped. And he was more of a bulldozer who tried to run over defenses instead of finding seams in the defense for easy buckets. Consequently, he shot a pedestrian 46.1% inside the arc and his team performed equal to slightly better with him off the floor.
He also has a suspect motor, as he is sometimes lackadaiscal on defense and has an anemic offensive rebounding rate for his size at 2.3%. This makes it questionable how good he will really be on defense.
If he improves his effort, decision making, and handling, then he has an excellent upside based on his strengths. But these are some nasty warts for a guy to be consensus #1 overall, as he currently has quite a bit of fat to be trimmed from his game.
Tier 3: Quality Prospects with Difficult Paths to Stardom
5. Franz Wagner, 6’9″ SF/PF Michigan
Wagner does not share the high upside of the prospects rated above him, but he fits a mold for being an elite role player that fits into any NBA lineup.
While he doesn’t have the typical strength or athleticism of an NBA stopper, he was an elite defensive player for Michigan based on his unique intersection of dimensions at 6’9″ with 7’0″ wingspan, intelligence, quick hands, and exceptional lateral movement. He is outlier good at containing penetration, and moves his feet laterally better than any wing prospect in recent memory.
He played a huge role in Michigan having the 4th best NCAA defense, as the defense was elite with him on the floor and turned to mush when he went to the bench:
The team was significantly better in each of the four factors with him on the floor, and notably the turnovers. On paper his 2.3% steal rate looks good but not exceptional for a wing, until you realize that Juwan Howard massively suppresses steals in a defense that heavily emphasizes forcing difficult shots over forcing turnovers. Most Michigan players who played for other coaches saw their steal rates fall off a cliff. When you consider that Franz was responsible for 29.1% of his team’s steals, his steal rate is much more impressive.
Further, he did this without heavily gambling, as he was very rarely beaten off the dribble and had a significantly positive impact on his team’s defensive eFG%.
His weakness is that he is not the most athletic or physical player, and had a mediocre rebound rate, which likely sets him below Kawhi and Draymond as an outlier defensive player. But he nevertheless is very good on this end.
Offensively he had a limited 19.1% usage rate. But he was able to create off the dribble in doses as he has a capable handle and is coordinated enough to step through seams in the defense. He shined with his lack of mistakes, as he had an excellent 3.8 assists vs 1.6 turnovers per game. His shooting is a work in progress, as he only made 32.5% from 3 in two years at Michigan and his form needs improvement, but his 83.5% FT offers hope for his ability to develop into a good shooter longterm.
He is not in the top tier without the athleticism or creation upside to have all-NBA upside. But in spite of being a sophomore, Franz is younger than Mobley, Suggs, and Barnes and is only a month older than Cade, and has an awesome role player skill set with a very low rate of making mistakes.
He fits a similar mold to Mikal Bridges and Otto Porter of hyperefficient role player, fits into any NBA lineup, and has very low odds of busting.
Once the possible stars are off the board, it’s difficult to see how taking Franz will be a regrettable choice.
6.Josh Giddey 6’8″ PG Australia
If the intersection of 3 indicators could be used to predict upside, the best choices would likely would be age, height, and passing. And Giddey smashes all 3. Here’s a list of teenage 6’7+ prospects who posted the highest pre-draft assist rate in the past 20 years:
Age
AST%
STL%
Height
Wingspan
Year
Pk
Josh Giddey
18.2
36.3
1.8
6’8
6’7.5
2021
?
Scottie Barnes
19.4
31.7
3.4
6’9
7’3
2021
?
Luka Doncic
18.8
30.5
2.4
6’8
?
2018
3
Ben Simmons
19.4
27.4
3.1
6’10
7’0
2021
1
Khris Middleton
19.4
23.7
2.5
6’8
6’10.5
2011
39
Andre Iguodala
19.9
23.7
2.6
6’7
6’11.5
2004
9
Draymond Green
19.8
23.3
2.9
6’7
7’1
2010
35
Tomas Satoransky
19.2
22.5
2.6
6’7
6’7
2012
32
Paul George
19.7
22.4
3.9
6’9
6’11
2010
10
Corey Brewer
19.8
22.4
3.2
6’7
6’9
2006
7
Ronnie Brewer
18.8
22.4
3.6
6’8
6’11
2004
14
Julius Hodge
19.1
21.9
2.1
6’7
7’0
2005
20
Nic Batum
19
21.5
2.7
6’8
7’1
2008
25
Kyle Anderson
19.3
20.4
3.4
6’9
7’2
2014
30
Cade Cunningham
19.3
20.4
2.5
6’8
7’0.5
2021
?
Jalen Johnson
19.1
20.5
3.1
6.9
6’11
2021
?
Giddey doesn’t just edge out the competition– he posted *by far* the highest assist rate at by far the youngest age. His passing also eye tests as elite, as he seems to always make the right decision, and even on non-assists often puts his teammates in a strong position to score.
Unfortunately, almost everything else is a weakness for him. Among prospects in the table, he has the lowest steal rate of the group without length to be as disruptive on defense as the typical point forward. He also doesn’t have particularly good frame or athleticism, and isn’t the best shooter (29.3% 3P 69.1% FT) or shot creator.
This gives Giddey one of the most polarizing distributions in draft history, and makes his NBA future extremely difficult to predict. The obvious comparison for him is Lonzo Ball, who is only 2″ shorter at 6’6″ with 1.5″ more wingspan and has similarly overpowered passing and underpowered everything else.
Lonzo had a solidly better steal rate at 2.8% vs 1.8% as well as blocks at 2.1% vs 1.4%, so the prospect of drafting a Lonzo with less defensive impact is not exceptionally thrilling, and there is no doubt Giddey has some non-trivial bust risk.
But Giddey is much more fluid than Lonzo, who may be the most awkward lottery prospect of all time. If he can parlay his fluidity into a capable scoring ability and develops a decent outside shot to boot, that may be enough to be a weapon offensively with such excellent passing. And he did have better usage (19.6 vs 18.1) and assist rate (36.3 vs 31.4) for Adelaide than Lonzo did at UCLA while being a full year younger, so the greater potential for creation is clearly there.
And even though they are completely different players, it is worth considering how badly Nikola Jokic smashed expectations. Being the best passer of all time at your height range is an overpowered ability when everything else develops well, and Giddey is likely the best passing prospect of all time at 6’7+.
There’s definitely risk in a prospect with such limited skills and physical tools. But if he develops well, Giddey has excellent upside and could be the NBA player that everybody hoped Lonzo Ball would be when he was chosen #2 overall.
7. Alperen Sengun6’10” PF, Turkey
Sengun does not fit the ideal for a modern NBA archetype, as he is a post-up PF that has become completely obsolete.
At 6’10” with 7’1″ wingspan and limited vertical explosion, he can play as a small center in some situations but lacks the rim protection to be ideal for the role consistently. And it’s not clear if he has the mobility to defend the perimeter, although he has a chance as his feet seem decent enough.
But once you get past the physical limitations, Sengun has a rare combination of skill and IQ. He has a capable handle, and is a sharp passer for his size, averaging more assists than turnovers (2.7 vs 2.4). He is also an exceptional offensive rebounder at 17.5% and shot maker with 63.2% 2P and 79.4% FT. He only made 7/35 from 3, but given his FT% at age 18 it seems likely he should be able to develop into an above average NBA 3 point shooter in time.
And what he lacks physically defensively, he helps atone with high IQ with good steal (2.6%) and block (5.9%) rates. If he proves capable of lateral movement and sharp decision making, he may not be a defensive sieve as feared.
The obvious comparison for him is Kevin Love. Which raises an interesting question– if you knew for sure you would get Kevin Love, where do you draft him in this modern era? It’s difficult to say, but there is a limit to how bearish you can be on such a statistically productive player. And Sengun’s statistical output smashes everybody else in the draft– even Mobley. So there is some wiggle room for him to be even better than Love.
While the prospect of drafting such an archaic mold with a high pick is scary for a modern GM, this mentality could also lead to Sengun being a steal with such a rare combinaton of youth, skill, and intelligence.
8. Jalen Green 6’5″ SG, G League Ignite
Green is universally considered to be a top 4 pick, as he is an exceptional athlete and scorer who was decent in the G League while only turning 19 years old in February.
The downside is that he is an undersized SG at 6’5″ or 6’6″ with a 6’8 to 6’9ish wingspan, and is somewhat one dimensional as a scorer. He has clear all-star upside in the Devin Booker or Zach LaVine mold, and largely deserves his hype.
But he may be slightly overrated with so many bigger and well rounded players slated to go above him. Everybody else ranked above him is a clearly better passer, and he is only slightly bigger than Jalen Suggs. This makes his goodness far from guaranteed and puts a healthy dent in his upside, as he is clearly the weakest link the consensus top 4 along with Cade, Mobley, and Suggs.
9. Jalen Johnson 6’9″ PF, Duke
Johnson is one of the most enigmatic players in the draft. He is a huge point forward at 6’9″ with 7’0″ wingspan and is a great athlete, stuffing the statsheet with bulk output in every category.
But his game is somewhat erratic, as he averaged more turnovers (2.5) than assists (2.2) and is not a good shooter with 63.2% FT and a low 3PA rate.
Also, he quit Duke’s team midseason. His team performed better with him off the floor, and it is not common to see top prospects leave their team midseason, which may suggest that his personality is erratic as his game. I really don’t know what to make of it, perhaps he had valid reasons and it does not deserve a significant reaction in light of his talent. But it is an odd point that makes him a bit uncomfortable to draft over the other talented prospects who do not have any similar nagging question marks.
It’s tough to know where to rank Johnson. His intersection of strengths is very rare, but to be comfortable drafting him a team should want to gather intelligence on what happened at Duke and whether he is worth betting on fulfilling his potential or not.
10. Jaden Springer, 6’4″ SG Tennessee
Springer is a funky guy with funky upside. He is one of the youngest prospects in the draft, turning 19 in September. And he does quite a bit well, as he can handle, pass, shoot, and defend.
On the downside, he is very small for SG at 6’4.25″ with 6’7.75″ wingspan, and is a decent but not great athlete. And he tends to overdribble and live in the mid-range which is a turn off for most scouts. Through this lens, it is easy to understand why he is only ranked 27th at ESPN currently.
But he made 81% FT at Tennessee, and while he shot a low volume of 3PA, there is no reason why he cannot develop his shooting to NBA 3 point range given his age. He can also get to the rim in a pinch, and if he develops his handling and passing he has some potential to operate as a big PG. And he is defensively very good for his size.
There’s not a great comp for him, but there is a lot to like. And he has more PG skills than Gary Harris and overall offensive polish than DeAnthony Melton, so he may have more upside than a mere quality role player.
Frankly it’s not clear that he is a weaker prospect than Jalen Green– he is about 1″ shorter and definitely less athletic and proficient at scoring, but much more well rounded.
11. Isaiah Jackson 6’10” C, Kentucky
Jackson offers an impressive 7’5″ wingspan to go with explosive athleticism, as he was an excellent rebounder and shot blocker with potential for switching at Kentucky.
Offensively he seems fairly raw, but does have hope for shooting with 70% FT and John Calipari is an expert at making futurue NBA stars look like ordinary college players. So if he has more offense than he has shown at Kentucky and his skills develop well, he has potential to be an Al Horford type which would be an outright steal in the late lottery.
The downside is that there’s only one Al Horford and he is much more likely to be a Willie Cauley Stein dime a dozen big. The upside makes him clearly worth a lottery pick, but its likelihood of hitting is less clear which makes somewhere in the late lottery seem like a fair slot for Jackson.
12. Moses Moody, 6’6 SG/SF, Arkansas
Moody is a prototypical 3 + D prospect, as he made 35.8% 3P and 81.2% at age 18, as he turned 19 recently in late May. He complements this with a 7’0.75″ wingspan that should help him hang defensively in the pros.
He is fairly limited as a shot creator, but he does have some interesting perks to his game. He is a good offensive rebounder (6.3%) for a SG, he has low turnover rate and about a 1:1 assist:TOV. And he has a surprisingly high FT rate for a non-creator at 0.482– higher than all of Cade Cunningham (.39), Jalen Suggs (.367), and Scottie Barnes (.339). This makes him both an effective spacer and efficient overall offensive player.
If there is one gripe to be had is that he uses his length surprising not well to generate steals, as he had a disappointing 1.6% steal rate– easily the lowest of Arkansas’s top 6 players. This leaves some questions about how much D he actually comes equipped with, but nevertheless he has an easy path to useful role player.
Tier 4: Now the Draft Gets Boring
13. BJ Boston, 6’7″ SF Kentucky
This may seem like an odd choice to rank this high since Boston is currently ranked 37th at ESPN after a dismal freshman season where he chucked brick after brick shooting 38.4% from 2 and 30% from 3.
But the draft gets horribly uninteresting after the aforementioned 12 go off the board, and there are reasons to be high on Boston.
For starters, he as #4 RSCI and seemed like a top 5 pick entering the season, and playing for John Calipari whose prospects routinely underperform in college, see their draft stock slip, and then overperform in the NBA. And the pandemic added extra randomness and weirdness to the season, which may give Boston further excuse for his relentless bricklaying.
Further, his season was not all *that* bad. He had more assists (1.6) than turnovers (1.4) and shot 78.5% FT, and led his team with 2.5% steal rate. For a wing prospect who is 6’7″ with 6’10.25″ wingspan, that is a solid foundation for 3 + D player who should attempt higher quality shots once he swaps his bad NCAA coach for a competent NBA coach.
His horrible shotmaking is a flag to be sure, but it seems excessive to drop Boston to round 2 just for that when he otherwise fits such a strong role player mold with such strong priors. Especially considering how bland this draft gets post-lottery.
14. Keon Johnson 6’5″ SG Tennessee
The good news for Johnson is that he is young, athletic, and capable of making plays on both sides of the ball.
The bad news is that he is highly inefficient for a small SG, as. he measured 6’4.75″ with 6’7.25″ wingspan with more turnovers (2.6) than assists per game (2.5). He also isn’t much of a shooter, making just 13/48 from 3. His 70.1% FT offers a ray of hope
Personally I would have a tough time getting excited drafting a tiny and inefficient SG, but he is really young and athletic which is more than can be said for most players available at this stage
15. Sharife Cooper 6’1″ PG Auburn
Cooper has an odd profile as a sort of Trae Young lite, which isn’t the most attractive mold since it needs to either hit hard or it is a miss since he is likely going to be a sieve on defense and needs to offer a huge amount of offensive creation to atone for that wart.
But he had an insane 34.3% usage and 51.5% assist rate for Auburn, and that level of shot creation cannot be ignored.
What sets him well behind Trae is that his jump shot is mechanically poor and likely needs to be completely re-worked, as he only made 13/57 (22.8%) 3P on the season. On the upside he did make 82.5% FT, so it’s a reasonable gamble that if he correct his mechanics he may have the natural touch to be a good shooter and realize his upside.
Overall he is a strange value proposition, but Cooper has enough home run upside to be more interesting than most post-lottery, and even if he doesn’t hit his upside perhaps he can be a bench microwave.
16. Jared Butler, 6’3″ PG/SG Baylor
Butler is somewhat of a boring role player, as he is not particularly athletic or adept at getting to the rim, which is a worrisome flaw for a SG in a PG body.
But he is a very good shooter, defensive player, and passer, and was clearly the best overall player on Baylor’s championship team. And he is a young junior at age 20, not turning 21 until August.
He doesn’t have much of an upside as a 3 + D PG who makes intelligent decisions, but he does figure to be an effective role player especially if he plays alongside a bigger ballhandler like Luka Doncic or Giannis.
One note that may dampen his stock is that he was allegedly playing with a heart condtiion for Baylor, and it’s not clear. how significant of a risk it is moving forward. It is plausible that NBA teams deem it to be an unnecessary risk to take and it causes him to slide in the draft.
17. Jonathan Kuminga 6’8″ SF/PF G League Ignite
Kuminga is the epitome of mystery box, as he has an excellent physical profile at aprpoximately 6’8″ with 7’1″ wingspan and good athleticism. For all intents and purposes he is a slightly bigger Jaylen Brown, and if he develops his skill level the sky is the limit for him.
The challenge for him is twofold. First, his skill level is not very good right now. He made just 24.6% 3P 62.5% FT in his G League stint, and has a loose handle that needs improvements.
He is listed as 18 not turning 19 until October. Based on that, he has reasonable odds of improving his skill set enough to be a Jaylen Brown-esque player in due time given his excellent physical tools.
But the second challenge is that it is not clear that he is actually 18 years old. He was born in Democratic Republic of Congo where only 25% of kids are born with birth certificates, and didn’t move to America until 2016 when he should have received advice to lie about his age to maximize his odds of an NBA future.
And there is a HUGE difference between 18 vs 19 vs 20, especially for a kid like Kuminga who you are betting on to make a major leap in skill level. So if he is 18, it is completely reasonable to take him in the #5-7 range as he is currently projected. But if he is 19, he takes a hit to his stock and perhaps belongs in the mid-1st. And if he is 20, he likely belongs in round 2. And if he is 21+, then he arguably does not deserve to be drafted.
Personally, I have no idea what the odds of each outcome actually are. Whatever NBA team that drafts him needs to be diligent on their intelligence regarding his age, because being wrong is very costly. For a quick and dirty estimate, let’s use Kevin Pelton’s draft pick value chart
If we say he should go #6 if 18, #15 if 19, #35 if 20, and #60 if 21+, and give 25% odds to each possibility, his respective values are 2110, 1240, 300, and 50 which average out to 925, or approximately the 21st pick in the draft.
Given that this draft is weak after the top 12, perhaps he can be bumped to the #15-20 range as a reasonable estimate. But that is pure guess work, as I have no clear info regarding his true age.
I don’t want to drop any hot takes about how he is not deserving of being drafted high, because it is unfair to him if his age is real and he gets punished for being born into a terrible situation that nobody would want to live through.
But at the same time, it would have been wise for him to lie about his age upon arrival in America, and if an NBA team is going to invest a top 10 pick in him, they should have a higher confidence in his youth than can be had based on available information.
Ultimately Kuminga is exceptionally difficult to value without any clear evidence regarding his age, and all that can be said is that he is extremely risky to take high lotto without any special intelligence that his age is likely accurate.
Overrated
Davion Mitchell6’1″ PG, Baylor
Currently projected to go #8 overall at ESPN, he is being sold as the next Patrick Beverley as he is a good defensive PG with the nickname “off night” for his reputation of shutting down his matchup defensively.
Offensively he has a quick first step and can get to the rim often enough, averaged 5.5 assists vs 2.4 turnovers, and made 44.7% from 3. So at a glance it would seem that he offers enough to be decent on that end and justify his defense.
But when we dig deeper, there are some flags. First he is 22 years old turning 23 in September, which is fairly old. Second, he was dismal offensively as a 21 year old sophomore, posting an anemic 100.5 ORtg on 19.1 usage. It’s very difficult to be that limited offensively that old as a little guy and thrive in the NBA.
He did clearly improve as a junior, but the biggest part of his leap was increasing his 3P% from 32.4% to 44.7%. But his FT% did not improve, and was actually slightly worse declining from 66.2% to 64.1%. This makes it unclear how much he actually improved his outside shooting vs happened to make more due to small sample size variance.
He did improve his 2P% and passing as well, as his handle likely did improve. But his handle remains fairly weak for his age, as he does not look particularly comfortable doing anything off the dribble in traffic, and moreso is capable of finding opening that present himself due to his quickness.
Most likely he is a mediocre shooter and mediocre ball handler who is too old to progress these skills to an NBA starter level, especially not for a 6’1 guy with 6’4″ wingspan where skill is paramount to success.
Yes he is very good defensively, but defense cannot be the main skill for somebody taht small with so many offensive warts. Especially when he comes with an anemic 1.7% ORB, 8.0% DRB rate and a low FT rate and isn’t the most physical player, it’s worth wondering if he is truly as good as his reputation on that end.
Most likely he will be an outright bust or an ordinary bench player, and it is difficult to see how his lottery hype is justified.
This is espcially true when he has a teammate who was better at just about everything while being 2 years younger and 2″ taller. Mitchell is more athletic and slightly more proficient at creating his own shot at the rim, but that’s a small advantage compared to Butler being outright better.
It is difficult to say exactly where to rank him because entering the season he did not even vaguely resemble a prospect and now his hype is out of control.
Currently the consensus #1 overall, Cade Cunningham offers some tantalizing strengths. He has an excellent NBA body and dimensions at 6’8″ with 7’1ish wingspan. He is an excellent shooter for his size making 40% from 3 and 84.6% FT as a freshman to go with his point forward skill set and ability to defend multiple positions and make plays defensively with a solid 2.5% steal rate.
It’s easy to see why he is so coveted, as prospects with his intersection of size, passing, scoring, and shooting rarely fail. But he comes with some funky warts that put a dent into his upside and makes him tricky to evaluate.
Efficiency
His biggest flaw is his lack of efficiency in spite of his excellent shooting. He posted a meager 104.2 ORtg on 28.6 usage– it is difficult to be that inefficient while making 40% 3P and 85% FT. But there are a number of cumulative flaws that chipped away at his efficiency.
Passing IQ
Cade’s biggest wart is questionable decision making. He has good vision and is willing to push the pace in transition, but he often delivers passes to teammates in difficult positions while being closely guarded or 1 on 2.
He often seems more interested in moving the ball forward than he does in creating efficient opportunities, and teammates seem to get blocked or turn it over after receiving his passes inordinately often.
This also resulted in a poor assist to turnover ratio (3.5 vs 4.0 per game) and the team not missing a beat with him on the bench. From watching it seemed that Oklahoma State generated higher quality shot attempts when somebody other than Cade initiated, and it reflects with 53.8% 2P with him off the court vs 51.3% with him on.
Shot Selection
This also reflects in his shot selection, as he often forced his way for difficult shots. Further, he has a somewhat loose handle and isn’t the most explosive athlete, which prevented him from creating many easy attempts for himself.
He was nevertheless able to create with his physical tools and shot making ability, but his high rate of difficulty in many of his attempts resulted in an underwhelming 46.1% inside the arc.
Motor/Effort
He also has a lackluster motor, as he posted a paltry 2.3% OREB% and only got 1 putback over the entire season. This also manifests in a sometimes lackadaisical approach to defense.
Prospects with Cade’s dimensions and quality assist and steal rates tend to be strong bets to be good defensive players in the NBA, but Cade’s inconsistent effort, ordinary athleticism, and questionable half-court IQ make it unclear how good he will be on this end.
Visual Evidence
In his OT game vs Oklahoma, most people were impressed with him scoring 40 points in a comeback win. But if you watch carefully, you can see an inordinate amount of pass attempts leading to a bad outcome. I timestamped 12 passes with a comment, although a number of them aren’t terrible decisions by Cade. He fed the big for poor postup attempts 4 times, which may have been a bigger flaw in his coach than himself. And at least one pass was a fine read where he turned it over because he threw it short. But if we are going to single out the truly bad decisions, here are the timestamps:
7:14 Runs PnR with Moncrieffe and oddly decides to pass it after giving opposing big ample time to recover, such that Moncrieffe is forced into a difficult shot while double teamed.
11:55 Passes to Moncrieffe streaking directly toward two defenders in transition and he blows the layup
29:42 Pushes it to Avery Anderson 1 on 2 in transition, and he gets the ball deflected out of bounds
37:17 Runs PnR with Moncrieffe streaking toward open lane with only 6’2″ DeVion Harmon available to help, but instead swings to tightly guarded Rondel Walker who travels
54:32 Runs PnR and dumps it off to tightly guarded non-handler Rondel Walker who is promptly stripped
This is a consistent theme with Cade. He has lapses in his awareness and makes sloppy passes that team his teammates in unfavorable positions more than you would like from a potential #1 overall pick.
Recently DraftExpress shared a video of Cade’s scoring highlights, and you can see that all of these shots are contested. His ability to make difficult shots is impressive, but he doesn’t have the burst to blow by opponents, or the handle or shake to wiggle around them. He plays a bulldozing style that enables him to create a high volume of shots, but not the most efficient ones.
How much will this limit him longterm?
It’s difficult to say. He was better in AAU, so perhaps to some extent he was affected by the pandemic restrictions and performed below his true ability.
Or maybe he has always depended on brawn over brains, and the step up in competition exposed weaknesses that weren’t apparent in AAU or high school.
Either way, it’s unlikely to be a death knell in light of his strengths. He sees the floor well and makes a number of good passes as well, so there is something to build on if he can improve his awareness and decision making. And his mold of big wing who can handle, pass, and shoot fails so rarely, he doesn’t need to improve a ton to be good.
But at the same time, it’s not the type of flaw you want to gamble on at #1 overall. If you are drafting him to be a 30 usage star, can you be comfortable with the fact that his creation includes a significant % of low quality attempts and turnovers for both himself and his teammates at this point?
And if you are drafting him to be a secondary creator a la Khris Middleton who can also space the floor and defend multiple positions, is that really a high enough upside mold to take at #1?
Comparisons
Cade has such a unique distribution of strengths and weaknesses he doesn’t have any particularly strong comps. But we can nevertheless walk through the roughly similar players to approximate his value.
Luka Doncic
The most optimistic comparison that can be made is Luka Doncic since both are point forwards with similar size and non-elite athleticism. Let’s compare Luka’s NBA rookie stats to Cade’s freshman stats:
Age
USG%
AST%
TOV%
OR%
DR%
FTr
ORtg
Luka
19.8
30.5
31.5
15
4
21.9
0.409
107
Cade
19.3
29.1
20.4
18.7
2.3
16.3
0.39
106
In spite of only being 7 months older, Luka had a higher usage, his assist:TOV was twice as good (1.73 vs 0.86), he played more physically with better rebounding and free throw rates. And in spite of only making 32.7% 3P and 71.3% FT compared to Cade’s 40% 3p and 84.6%, he still had the better overall efficiency. Luka is clearly the better NBA creator than Cade was in NCAA.
Cade is nowhere near Luka’s stratosphere as a prospect. Luka is a god tier shot creator and Cade is merely good for his size, and his shooting advantage only slightly closes the gap because Luka’s advantages are so enormous.
If Cade was deservedly the obvious #1 pick, he would be better at the NCAA level than the obvious #1 pick who fits a similar archetype was at a similar age in the NBA.
Funny how Luka actually slid to #3 but now Cade is locked into #1 sans debate. Perhaps some Luka FOMO is contributing to his excessive hype.
Kawhi Leonard
We could also compare Cade to Kawhi as they have a number of similarities as sharp shooting point forwards.
Age
USG%
AST%
TOV%
2P%
STL%
BLK%
ORtg
Cade
19.3
29.1
20.4
18.7
46.1
2.5
2.3
104
Kawhi
19.5
27.5
16
14.6
47.8
2.7
1.9
109
At a glance it seems this may be a path to greatness…until you compare their rebounding rates and Kawhi destroys him with 11.2/26.6 vs 2.3/16.6. Kawhi has an all time elite motor, where Cade is weak, and this is why Cade is never going to sniff Kawhi’s defensive output.
Kawhi also had a better assist:TOV and slightly better overall efficiency in spite of only making 29% 3P And 76% FT. And Kawhi has progressed to an elite NBA shooter that Cade is not likely to surpass. And with likely overall less efficient offense, and significantly weaker defense and rebounding, it’s difficult to see Cade’s path to Kawhi’s level.
Paul George
If we take a step down to Paul George we are getting warmer:
Age
USG%
ORtg
AST%
TOV%
2P%
STL%
BLK%
OR%
DR%
Cade
19.3
29.1
104
20.4
18.7
46.1
2.5
2.3
2.3
16.3
PG
19.7
27.7
105
22.4
20.9
48.5
3.9
2.9
6.6
19
They have very similar distributions offensively, as being turnover prone point forwards with a significant dependency on shooting. Cade posted his #’s vs. better defenses so he should get a small edge offensively, but PG is the better athlete with a significant advantage in steals and rebounding. Cade is unlikely to match him defensively, and PG’s offense did develop about as well as could have hoped.
It’s plausible Cade is able to be a slightly better offense/worse defense version of PG, but he nevertheless seems like a clear underdog to have PG’s level of goodness:
Jayson Tatum
Cade’s #1 kenpom comp shared a freshman season with many similarities:
Age
USG%
ORtg
AST%
A/TO
STL%
BLK%
OR%
DR%
FT%
2P%
Cade
19.3
28.6
104
20.4
0.86
2.5
2.3
2.3
16.3
84.6
46.1
Tatum
18.8
25.4
109
12.4
0.82
2.3
3.2
4.8
19.7
84.9
50.4
Cade has a higher assist rate, but a similar assist:TOV. And Cade had a higher 3PA/100 (8.9 vs 6.9) and 3P% (40 vs 34), but Tatum had the better pre-NCAA FT% in the mid-high 80s vs 74.9% for Cade with neither attempting many 3’s. Meanwhile Tatum was 5 months younger with slightly better rebounding and 2P%. Overall they are close but Tatum gets the edge as the better prospect.
So it’s curious that Tatum wasn’t in the conversation for top 2 behind Lonzo Ball and Markelle Fultz whereas Cade is considered the consensus #1 overall.
Granted, Tatum ended up being the correct #1 in that class after landing in a great situation playing for Brad Stevens and developing about as well as possible. And there is no reason why Cade cannot be similarly good if he develops well. But again, he is slightly worse overall as a prospect, will almost certainly end up in a less favorable situation, and likely won’t develop as well, and he is a clear underdog to be as good as Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Tatum’s teammate is Cade’s #2 kenpom comp.
Age
USG%
ORtg
AST%
A/TO
STL%
BLK%
OR%
DR%
FT%
2P%
Cade
19.3
28.6
104
20.4
0.86
2.5
2.3
2.3
16.3
84.6
46.1
Jaylen
19.2
31.2
95
15.1
0.65
1.7
2.2
4.5
16.5
65.4
48.6
Cade’s #’s are mostly better across the board, and he clearly has a stronger pre-draft profile than Brown statistically, who was even more turnover prone and inefficient than Cade.
It’s a slippery comp because Brown is a better athlete than Cade, was fortunate to play for an elite coach, and has been one of the biggest overperformers of pre-draft numbers in recent memory. But we are reaching the point where it’s unclear whether Cade is more likely to be better or worse than Brown, which makes him a somewhat reasonable comp in terms of overall value.
Khris Middleton
Middleton slid all the way to #39 in round 2 after starting school young and being injured and less effective in his final season as a junior. But his sophomore season where he was freshman aged seems to be indicative of his true value, and it is strikingly similar to freshman Cade:
Age
USG%
ORtg
AST%
A/TO
STL%
BLK%
OR%
DR%
FT%
2P%
FTr
Cade
19.3
28.6
104
20.4
0.86
2.5
2.3
2.3
16.3
84.6
46.1
0.39
Khris
19.4
27.9
108
23.7
1.04
2.5
0.2
8.2
13.3
78.1
49
0.418
They are basically twins! Cade is slightly bigger and maybe has 2″ to 2.5″ more wingspan. He also has higher block rate (KM career block rate was 0.9%), KM does better on the offensive glass, and otherwise these guys are nearly doppelgangers.
This is my favorite comp for Cade, as it is the type of player I believe his drafting team should try to develop him into.
Negative comps
The good news for Cade is that it’s difficult to come up with a truly frightening comparison for him, as big wings who are willing passers tend to perform well relative to draft slot. The most recents busts in that mold would be Evan Turner and Josh Jackson, who both have short arms and are poor shooters unlike Cade.
Then the one semi-interesting comparison who pops up in his top 10 kenpom comps is Andrew Wiggins. It’s a highly imperfect comparison because Wiggins had vastly superior athleticism and inferior passing + shooting, but let’s run with it for a moment:
Age
USG%
ORtg
AST%
A/TO
STL%
BLK%
OR%
DR%
FT%
2P%
FTr
Cade
19.3
28.6
104
20.4
0.86
2.5
2.3
2.3
16.3
84.6
46.1
0.39
Wiggins
18.8
25.5
112
9.2
0.68
2.1
3.1
8.4
12.2
77.1
49.3
0.538
Cade’s advantage in shooting and passing is significant, but in spite of that Wiggins was slightly more efficient overall as he was a better finisher and more willing to mix it up inside on the offensive glass and drawing free throws. And in spite of Wiggins being a tunnel visioned non-passer, Cade’s assist:TOV ratio wasn’t *that* much better.
Now let’s focus on the similarities: they were both consensus #1’s entering the season, who had tantalizing strengths but also a surprising amount of meh qualities that were largely overlooked by people anchored to their preseason hype. They both have lackadaisical streaks, looser than expected handles, and both are prone to mental lapses.
After seeing him in summer league, I wrote that Wiggins appeared to be pushed down the wrong path of high volume iso scorer. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown had an excellent coach developing them, and Khris Middleton was a humble 2nd rounder never expected to lead a team. If whoever drafts Cade tries to force him into a high volume scorer who runs the offense, he may not be as effective as he would in a secondary creation role a la Middleton.
While he is a different type of player than Wiggins, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Cade provide a similar career arc in terms of value if he is also pushed down the high usage path without developing the creation and decision making to justify it early in his career.
Summary
It seems fair to give Cade a reasonable target of being as good as Jaylen Brown or Khris Middleton, with Jayson Tatum being approximately the upper bound of his upside. His downside would be a different flavor of Andrew Wiggins, where he is an inefficient high usage player with his warts weighing a bit heavier than his tantalizing strengths.
It’s tough to say his odds of each path. On the upside, most players with his intersection of strengths tend to pan out, and given that he is the consensus #1 overall, the safest assumption is that he will be good more often than not.
But at the same time, he has an unique distribution and we haven’t seen many prospects with his specific weaknesses, so it’s not safe to get overconfident in his goodness.
Where Does He Fit in This Draft?
Although he is the consensus #1 overall, it is difficult to understand why he is valued above Evan Mobley. Mobley is more well rounded with fewer warts, more statistically productive, made a bigger team impact, and eye tests as more fluid and athletic.
There isn’t a clear case for Cade going higher. This strongly reminisces of Wiggins vs Embiid, where the public got too attached to a prospect hyped as generational, and neglected his myriad warts when a clearly superior prospect emerged. Mobley even has a higher BPM than Embiid (13.7 vs 11.9) and Cade has a slightly lower BPM than Wiggins (7.9 vs 8.3). Mobley smashes the eye test with his incredible fluidity like Embiid while Cade underwhelms with a somewhat sloppy approach like Wiggins. And unlike Embiid, Mobley doesn’t have any injury concerns to dampen his stock.
Mobley may not exceed Cade’s NBA value by the same margin as Embiid over Wiggins, but taking Cade first will likely prove to be some level of mistake in the long run.
After that, Cade has a solid case for #2 overall along with Jalen Suggs and Scottie Barnes. In particular Cade vs Barnes is an interesting comparison since they are both point forwards with funky distributions. I recently made a case as to why Barnes may be better. Cade is the much better shooter, but Barnes has 1-2″ more of dimensions, more defensive upside, and is the much better passer and decision maker with the ball.
It is fairly close between Barnes and Cade, but intuitively I would lean toward Barnes as his cumulative advantages are significant, and he has decent enough odds of developing an acceptable shot.
Suggs is a more challenging comparison because of his vastly inferior dimensions, but it’s easy to see him as the better prospect as well as the more explosive athlete with significantly higher basketball IQ.
After that, it’s difficult to value anybody else above him. Jalen Green is too small to be rated above him without being a better passer. Franz Wagner and Josh Giddey are a couple of late lotto sleepers who can easily be better than Cade, but are too role player-ish to value above Cade’s starry mold with any confidence.
Ultimately it’s fair to rank him anywhere in the #2 to #4 range, so he should have about the same stock as his insanely unrealistic upside comp Luka and his more reasonable upside comp in Tatum. Luka was an obvious market inefficiency at the time, but it is curious that he is valued so solidly above Tatum without any clear logic as to why. Tatum edges him out as slightly better in most categories.
Maybe I’m missing something, but I don’t think this is a hot take. Based on available information, it seems the market is flat out wrong about Cade being the consensus #1 overall.
I have already written about my three favorite sleepers in round 2, but that’s just scratching the surface. Round 2 is littered with all sorts of interesting prospects this year. This draft may have the smallest disparity between prospects slated to go round 2 vs its underwhelming lottery picks that I have ever seen. Let’s look at a few more possible sleepers who may carve out solid NBA careers, once again sorted by current ESPN ranking:
33. Zeke Nnaji
Nnaji is a somewhat boring big prospect, as he provides good interior scoring and rebounding, but has ordinary steal, block, assist rates to go with a pedestrian 7’1″ wingspan and decent but not great athleticism.
What makes him interesting is that his flaws run parallel to fellow Arizona alum Lauri Markkanen. Lauri had even worse steal, block, assist rates, and wingspan, but he made up for it with good lateral mobility. For productive big men, ability to potentially defend in space can help atone for lack of defensive playmaking abilities.
Obviously Nnaji doesn’t have Lauri’s elite shooting ability for a big man, and isn’t the same tier of prospect. But he does offer some shooting potential, making 76% FT and 5/17 from 3 as a freshman.
He also does traditional big man things like interior scoring and rebounding better than Lauri. He is smooth and coordinated which makes him a reliable interior finisher in spite of lacking high end explosiveness.
Even though he is boring on his surface, he has a number of strengths that accumulate and no glaring weakness. There are questions about his defense and shooting, but that’s true for most prospects. He has good intangibles, and if he is successfully develops his 3 + D, he is going to be a solid player.
36. Tre Jones
Jones is also a boring mold of game managing PG who plays smart and avoid mistakes, similar to his brother Tyus.
It’s not clear if he is better or worse than Tyus. Odds are he is approximately the same. He doesn’t have the creation or defensive potential to have a big upside tail, but he does have good odds of being an efficient high end backup to low end starting PG like his brother.
It’s understandable why a player like that would slide to round 2, but it feels like he is sliding a bit too far for a prospect likely to be a useful role player.
44. Jordan Nwora
Much like Aaron Nesmith, Nwora offers good shooting and an NBA body, and that’s about it.
But Nwora is slightly bigger, at 6’7.5″ he is an important 1.5″ taller and his 6’10.5″ wingspan is half an inch longer. He also seems slightly more athletic, and his physical edge shows in his superior rebounding.
3PA
3P%
FT%
Nwora
10.9
0.394
0.785
Nesmith
11.7
0.41
0.825
Nesmith is also 13 months younger so he gets the clear edge in shooting.
Otherwise both guys have similar steal, block, assist, and free throw rates. They really are similar prospects, and it largely comes down to Nwora’s slight physical advantages vs Nesmith’s slight shooting advantage. How do we choose between the two?
One argument would be that Nwora can easily become the better NBA shooter, but the difference between 6’6″ and 6’7.5″ is significant and Nesmith can never make up that gap. Even though Nwora’s percentages are slightly worse, he appears to have the quicker release on his shot which makes it harder to buy into Nesmith’s advantage for a skill that is extremely high variance to begin with.
The flipside is that Nesmith is lauded for his work ethic and leadership, so teams deciding between the two may favor his intangibles. But Nwora is the son of the Nigerian national team coach and seems to have good intangibles as well, so it’s not a clear advantage for Nesmith based on the limited information available.
Ultimately they are very close and it’s not clear who is the better prospect. The short answer is that they belong in the same tier, which is the sign that the massive gap between their current #44 and #10 rankings should be closed significantly.
49. Reggie Perry
Perry brings a fascinating offensive skill set to the table for a 6’10” player, as he does a bit of everything. He can handle, pass, and shoot, as well as do traditional big man things like score inside and he is an excellent rebounder.
Granted, his skills are still in development. He showed big offensive improvements as a sophomore, but was still turnover prone with 3.0 assists vs 3.7 turnovers per 40. And he shot a solid 76.8% FT, 32.4% from 3, but had a low 3PA rate and still needs to improve his range. But he only turned 20 in March, and has a nice baseline for skill for a young big to build on.
Defensively, Perry faces questions similar to Vernon Carey. He has a 7’0.5″ wingspan, and while he is a decent athlete, his lateral mobility and ability to defend in space are in question. He is currently slotted in round 2 because there’s some chance he gets roasted on defense in the NBA.
But he also has a chance of defensive competence. If he can learn to hold his own on that end and develops his offensive skills well, that will accumulate to a good player.
Perry is yet another 2nd round big who isn’t that different from Obi Toppin. He lacks Toppin’s explosive finishing ability, but is much more well rounded offensively, better rebounding, and has slightly better dimensions and hope of competence on defense.
Even though both are technically sophomores, Perry is two full years younger and likely has more upside to develop into a complete player.
Ultimately it’s confusing how Toppin’s flaws get overlooked while Perry gets jammed in the back end of round 2. Is explosive finishing that rare of a skill compared to motor, physicality, and perimeter skill? It typically isn’t valued that high, and even though it’s a significant advantage, Perry chips away with a number of smaller advantages that add up.
It’s plausible that Obi is nevertheless the better prospect. But it isn’t consistent to ignore his flaws while stashing Reggie Perry and Vernon Carey in the round 2 dumpster in spite of their flaws not being any worse.
51. Paul Reed
Reed is a limited offensive player who has spent his NCAA career mired on a horribly coached DePaul team. He is likely going to be a low usage role player in the NBA, so his lack of NBA hype is understandable.
That said– there is much to like about him. In spite of his offensive limitations, he still has a passable shot, making 73.9% FT and 33% 3P over his DePaul career. He has a low 1.9 3PA per 40 minutes, so his shot still needs improvement but it’s not broken.
Other than that he is capable of finishing and has an OK enough 2.0 assists vs 2.9 TOVs per 40 such that he won’t be a significant impediment to an NBA offense if his shooting comes around.
And he offers excellent defensive potential. He is 6’9″ with 7’2″ wingspan with good athleticism. He anchored the #56 defense for DePaul as a junior (close to Leitao’s best ever which is #47) and posted excellent 3.4% steal, 9.4% block, 11.2% ORB, 25.8% DRB rates.
Reed had excellent on/off splits on both ends. DePaul averaged 0.97 vs 0.90 points/possession with him on and turned to mush with 0.83 vs 1.03 with him off.
He isn’t perfect on D, as he is mistake prone on this end, and it remains to be seen how well he can guard NBA perimeter players. But his length, athleticism, and steal rates all suggest that he had a great chance of success, especially once he is freed from the shackles of Dave Leitao’s coaching.
He appears to be a role player in the mold of guys like James Johnson, Moe Harkless, and Andre Roberson. All of those guys were solid returns on first round picks, so why is Reed mired deep in round 2?
My best guess is because he slid through the recruiting radar as a 3* prospect being young for his class and limited on offense, and spent his NCAA career on a perennially bad team. The interesting in draft comparison is Precious Achiuwa, who is currently slated to go #9.
Unlike Reed, Achiuwa was a 5* recruit because he was very old for his class and showed more handling and scoring ability than Reed. But now that they are both in school, even though Achiuwa is a freshman and Reed is a junior, he is only 3 months younger. They have very similar physical profiles with nearly identical dimensions, and their statistical distributions are similar as well:
Pts
Reb
Ast
TOV
Stl
Blk
2P%
FT%
3PA
FTr
Precious
28.4
19.4
1.7
5.0
2.0
3.4
0.514
0.599
2.3
0.507
Reed
26.7
18.8
2.9
4.0
3.3
4.5
0.551
0.738
3.2
0.227
Most advantages point toward Reed. His assist:TOV suggests he is more likely to be able to play the perimeter in the NBA without being a disaster. His FT% and 3PA rate more optimism for his shooting. And his superior steals and blocks suggest more defensive upside.
On the flipside, Precious has a significant free throw rate advantage and is a bit tankier and more physical. He also does have a better handle which gives him slightly more offensive upside in the instance that he improves his myriad flaws on that end. And his significant RSCI edge may not be 100% attributable to scouts being tricked by age. After all, Reed had a breakout junior year and it’s easier to take Precious #’s at face value.
Like Nwora and Nesmith, the two likely belong in the same tier and are very close considering their disparity in current hype and stock. Reed is more likely to be useful because he is currently a better team player, but Achiuwa has a bit more home run potential.
78. Malik Fitts
Fitts projects to be undrafted because he turned 23 in July and he’s merely a good but not great player. He started his career as a 3* recruit for South Florida, and after an underwhelming freshman year he transferred to Saint Mary’s where he played well for two seasons.
On one hand, he is an unheralded recruit who never performed well in NCAA until he was 21. But he does a number of things well that should translate to the NBA as a 3 + D wing.
He is 6’8″ with 6’11.5″ wingspan, a good body and athleticism, and he rebounds fairly well. He also has the mobility to defend the perimeter and a solid steal rate, which suggests good potential for versatile NBA defense.
He also is a good shooter, making 40.7% from 3 and 78.6% FT in his two years at Saint Mary’s. And he can handle, and is capable of getting to the rim and finishing.
It’s not that he just slightly checks the boxes, he clearly is a competent handler and shooter and has physical tools to defend multiple positions in the NBA. Those are the 3 most important qualities for a role playing wing, and Fitts brings them all to the table.
Even we compared him in these 3 areas to top 5 prospect Deni Avdija, Fitts is clearly better in all 3. Deni is 3.5 years younger and could surpass Fitts handling and shooting longterm, but Fitts current advantages are so significant he should be considered the favorite to be more skilled longterm. And Fitts physical tools will always be a notch better than Deni.
But of course this doesn’t make him necessarily a better overall prospect than Deni. Deni is known for his basketball IQ, and in spite of his youth is already a much better passer than Fitts who is prone to tunnel vision and has an ugly 2.1 assists vs 3.3 turnovers per 40 for Saint Mary’s. He is also not a lockdown defensive player in spite of his tools, as he is mistake prone and struggles to defend the pick and roll.
This significant IQ/vision advantage for Deni makes him the overall better prospect, but Fitts’ edges in skill and tools makes it much closer than an UDFA should be to a top 5 prospect.
For an undrafted player, Fitts’ flaws aren’t backbreaking. IQ and vision are slippery to assess– interestingly he had a better assist rate as a freshman for South Florida when the rest of his game was much weaker. Perhaps his vision is fine, and NBA coaching is able to mitigate his mistakes in which case he should be a solid role playing wing.
Fitts’ age inhibits his upside, he’s not going to be a slam dunk steal of the draft. But his upside doesn’t seem all that much lower than the younger and similarly flawed players that are currently getting lottery hype.
Thus far I have written about the top 4 prospects in the draft and the limited upside of many of the lottery candidates. Overall the draft is looking incredibly weak on the top, but on the bright side there are quite a few hidden gems who are currently slated to go in round 2.
For now let’s run through the three players listed as 2nd rounders who most obviously belong in round 1:
31. Jahmi’us Ramsey
After Zhaire Smith and Jarrett Culver built up significant hype playing for Chris Beard at Texas Tech and were big disappointments early in their career, it seems that nobody wants to draft a Red Raider anymore.
But there aren’t any major coaches whose prospects consistently bust. Most coaches have some prospects do well, others disappoint, and there’s no reason to doubt Chris Beard’s ability to produce NBA talent based on a sample size of two.
This is especially the case since unlike Culver and Smith who were 3* prospects, Ramsey was the #30 RSCI recruit and is less likely to be a mirage produced by good coaching.
Ramsey is a bit of an awkward mold, as he is a bit small for a shooting guard at 6’4″ with a 6’6″ wingspan. He is a good but not great athlete, and with his limited size he struggled to finish at the rim and only made 64.1% of his free throws. And he averaged just slightly more assists (2.9) than turnovers (2.6) per 40 minutes. It’s easy to see why people are hesitant to jump on board with him as an undersized SG even without the Texas Tech concerns.
But there’s quite a bit to like. He made 42.6% of his 3’s on a decent 3PA rate. While he likely ran hot on 3P% in light of his free throws, he may have also ran cold on his FT% given that he only had 78 FTA compared to 141 3PA. He is very young having turned 19 in June, and if his shot is real he has quite a bit of potential as a scorer.
And he complements his scoring ability with solid rebound, steal, and block rates. Let’s compare him to a few similar prospects:
Age
ORB
DRB
STL
BLK
Height
Wingspan
Jah’mius Ramsey
18.5
3.0
12.3
2.5
2.5
6’4
6’6
Jamal Murray
18.8
4.9
11.1
1.6
0.9
6’4.25
6’6.5
Gary Harris
18.8
3.9
8.6
3.1
1.1
6’4.5
6’6.75
Brad Beal
18.4
4.7
18.2
2.5
2.6
6’3
6’8
Physically these guys are all similar. Beal has the best length and his rebounds and blocks hint at the best athleticism, so it’s no surprise that he was the most coveted prospect of the group. But Ramsey is likely the 2nd best athlete, and while his wingspan is slightly lower than the others, it was last measured in 2018 and may have grown since.
Offense per 100 possessions:
PTS
AST
TOV
3PA
3P%
FT%
Jah’mius Ramsey
28.3
4.2
3.8
9.8
42.6
64.1
Jamal Murray
33.3
3.7
3.9
12.8
40.8
78.3
Gary Harris
29.3
4
3.2
11.1
37.6
78.8
Brad Beal
26.5
4
3.8
9
33.9
76.9
Murray stands out as the best shooter of the crop with a great 3PA rate with the 3P% and FT% to back it up. No surprise that he was close behind Beal as the second best prospect of the group.
But really the only thing here that separates Ramsey from the pack is his FT%…which is such a small sample. He went 50/78, if instead he went 55/78 that puts him at 70.5% and it’s not a major flag for an 18 year old guard.
Granted, he wasn’t a good free throw shooter in AAU, but it’s possible he made a big leap, and it’s possible that he continues to make big leaps. If he becomes a good longterm shooter, he is probably going to be a good NBA player.
Gary Harris is a good comparison in terms of value, because he had a better shooting signal, but Ramsey has a bit more upside due to his superior athleticism. Harris was a good return on a #19 pick in a better draft than this one, so it doesn’t make much sense for Ramsey to be mired in round 2.
If Ramsey’s shot turns out to be a dud then he likely will be too, but he’s young, it looks mechanically good, and there’s no strong reason to bet against it. And if becoming a good shooter is all it takes for him to become a slightly better Gary Harris or slightly worse Jamal Murray or Bradley Beal, then he obviously belongs in round 1.
32. Vernon Carey
Imagine that there is a #5 RSCI freshman who posts a 34.1 PER as the best player on a top 5 team while not turning 19 until the end of the season in February. Then imagine that almost every other highly rated freshman in the class disappointed with thin hopes for the future in a draft with limited upperclass talent.
Typically, the one highly rated freshman who exceeded the hype would be the obvious #1 overall pick, and we would move on to debating #2. But not in 2020, where being a relatively unathletic big is considered to be a debilitating wart and Vernon Carey is projected as a 2nd rounder.
Anti-Okafor Bias
This is in part exacerbated by the tale of Jahlil Okafor, who shares a number of parallels to Vernon Carey. He was also an elite recruit for Duke, and led an excellent team that eventually won the championship in points, rebounds, and blocks. He largely lived up to the hype in college and was considered the favorite for #1 overall until the emergence of Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell dropped him to #3.
But on top of being in an archaic mold, Okafor also failed to translate his excellent NCAA production and has been a complete flop in the NBA.
Now it’s completely reasonable to view similar prospects through a skeptical lens. Low post scoring is not nearly as valuable as it used to be, and teams are now playing smaller lineups, emphasizing speed and skill over size and interior scoring.
That said, Okafor was a completely sane #3 pick by an intelligent GM just 5 years ago. Since there are no KAT or DAR level prospects in this draft, Vernon Carey would have been the clear #1 overall choice if this was 2015. While it’s fair to reduce the value of such a prospect in accordance with the evolution of the game, it seems like a massive overcorrection to drop Carey out of the first round. He is a different prospect than Okafor who will translate differently, develop differently, and is likely slightly better overall pre-draft:
Pts
Reb
Ast
TOV
Stl
Blks
2P%
3PA
FT%
Okafor
34.9
17.1
2.6
5
1.5
2.9
66.4%
0
51%
Carey
39.2
19.3
2.1
4.5
1.6
3.5
59.0%
1.5
67%
They are near doppelgängers statistically, except Carey has a significant edge in FT% and he shot 8/21 from 3 as a freshman while Okafor did not attempt any 3’s. And Carey was 2 months younger.
There’s no guarantee that Carey translates as poorly offensively and is as bad as Okafor defensively. He can do much better in both regards, and if he develops an outside shot to boot, it will look silly for being this low on him.
Can Vern Fit in the Modern NBA?
Plodding bigs are going out of style, but they are not extinct yet. Looking at this year’s playoff teams many of them start below the rim bigs, many of who slid in the draft: Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, Myles Turner, Jarrett Allen, Nikola Vucevic, Ivica Zubac, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Jusuf Nurkic. And Draymond Green missed the playoffs after being a mainstay in 5 straight finals.
Granted, Carey does have an underwhelming 7’0″ wingspan which is inferior to the aforementioned bigs, and he isn’t a passing savant like the biggest round 2 steals in Draymond, Jokic, and Gasol. So there are reasons to be skeptical that he will actually look like the correct #1 overall in retrospect.
Stylistically he is most similar to Enes Kanter, which is one of the least sexy molds in the modern NBA. But Kanter is the poster child for lead feet, and he was nevertheless able to start for a Portland team that went to the West Finals last year, and is now playing playoff rotation minutes for Boston. If Carey happens to develop into a better defensive player and/or shooter (both are very low bars to clear) while being similar in other regards, that’s a useful player.
Kanter was the #3 overall pick in 2011. The game is evolving, but let’s not quit on bigs this aggressively. There is still value to being large and good at basketball.
Ultimately it’s a tricky question how much to precisely de-value a player like Carey for his archaic mold. On one hand, he is sub-optimal centerpiece even if he hits his upside, and it’s difficult to justify taking players like him in the top 3 given the risk that he either flops completely like Okafor or is heavily flawed like Kanter in spite of his productive box score.
But how far can he reasonably be dropped? It’s unlikely that he flops as hard as Okafor, and it’s pessimistic to project his flaws to be as extreme as Kanter’s. Carey is really good at basketball in a draft where the lottery is full of guys who fit a modern mold but just aren’t that good and need to overachieve in order to have a decent NBA career.
Why Not Take Him at the Toppin of the Draft?
The most direct comparison for Carey among lottery prospects is Obi Toppin, who currently is ranked #4 on ESPN’s mock. Obi has similar dimensions (Carey is approximately 1″ taller and longer). Toppin is much more vertically explosive and better at finishing, but other than that Carey destroys him.
Carey is a much better rebounder and a better shot blocker. Both struggle to defend in space, but Carey has more hope of learning long term because he is 3 years younger and Obi’s vertical explosiveness has not translated to lateral competence. Toppin is the slightly better shooter and passer now, but Carey is a favorite to surpass him in both in 3 years. And in spite of Obi’s super athleticism, Carey has more skill in the paint as he was able to score more points at just slightly lower efficiency in spite of the age gap and tougher competition.
And to cap it all off: Carey was a top 5 recruit while Obi was a 20 year old redshirt for a mid-major team. Obi is getting more attention because of his athleticism, but he has an incomplete athletic package since it doesn’t translate to defense, and collectively Carey is the clearly superior talent.
It’s difficult to say exactly how heavily to de-value Carey’s elite statistics and pedigree due to his dated mold. But it is difficult to justify ranking Obi Toppin above him, given that Obi shares his key flaws and brings fewer strengths to the table.
If Carey was the top 5 prospect and Obi was the early 2nd rounder, that would make much more sense than their current rankings . Which isn’t to say it would be accurate to flip them, but it would at least feel sane. For now, let’s conservatively say that Carey belongs in the lottery at least slightly above Toppin, and Carey ranking so much lower is a major inefficiency in the current rankings.
35. Devon Dotson
As a sophomore, Dotson was the best player on the clear best team in college basketball. He had a great argument for best player in the country, as he ranked #2 behind just Luka Garza for kenpom.com Player of the Year.
But unlike Garza, Dotson is an athlete who can create his shot offensively and make plays defensively. There are no glaring concerns about his ability to translate his game to the NBA. Having turned 21 earlier this month in August, Dotson is reasonably young for NCAA two way stud with NBA athleticism.
Dotson is currently mired in round 2 because he is a small PG at 6’2″ with 6’3.25″ wingspan, and there are questions about his passing and shooting for such a small guy.
He only made 33.2% of his 3’s in his two years at Kansas and is more of a slasher than shooter at this stage. But he made 80.8% FT, so there is potential for him to develop into a good distance shooter in time.
The more concerning flaw is his lack of elite passing ability, as he only averaged 4.5 assists per 40 in his two years at Kansas, and is currently a combo guard in a small PG body.
Bill Self Guards Rarely Rack Up Assists
Fellow Kansas alum Devonte’ Graham went #34 overall in 2018, and looks like a possible steal after his breakout sophomore season as the starting PG for Charlotte. At the time I thought Graham was a reach at #34 overall, because he did not show the potential as a creator to seem close to an NBA caliber floor general.
His first season as a starter for Kansas was when he was a sophomore who turned 21 late in the season, where he posted a paltry 16.9% usage and 19.1% assist rate. As a 22 year old junior, he hardly improved with 18% usg, 19.2% assist. Then finally as a 23 year old senior, he took the reins to the offense with Frank Mason departed and posted a respectable 23.9% usage and 31.4% assist rate.
Any starting caliber NBA point guard should have showed MUCH more creation and passing ability before turning 23, and being that much of a late bloomer is typically a major red flag. Yet just 2 years later, here is Graham taking on an even greater role for an NBA offense with 24.8% usage and 35.3% assist rate with decent efficiency.
Graham’s senior season was the only Self player to post an assist rate above 30% other than Aaron Miles in 03-04 and 04-05. He doesn’t try to build an offense around one point guard, he typically likes to run point guard by committee.
Graham is a rare example of breakout passing regardless of coaching, and it’s not likely that Dotson follows the same arc. But the mere possibility is attractive, as Dotson was a better NCAA player than Graham and is a better athlete with more NBA upside.
Reasons For Optimism
Dotson posted a 3.5% steal rate as a sophomore, the best steal rate by a Kansas player since Mario Chalmers in 2008. For his career he was 2.9% vs 2.5% for Graham. This indicates that he may have the feel and vision to develop his passing longterm.
Further, Dotson’s on/off splits are great. Kansas 2P% was 57.2% with Dotson on the floor and 46.4% with him off. That is in part because of his own stellar finishing. And they forced 19.7% turnovers with him on the floor with a slightly lower defensive eFG% vs 12.0% with him off.
These are huge splits for stats that typically do not see such variance when a player leaves the floor. And offensive 2P% and defensive TOV% are the team level stats that a high IQ point guard can impact the greatest. Given that this also came for the clear #1 team in the country, this could be a hint that Dotson makes team level impact beyond the box score.
It’s Going Down, I’m Yelling Kemba
Dotson developing into an NBA 3 point shooter and a quality passer are far from given, but they also are both firmly in the realm of possibility. And if he does both, that leaves only his lackluster dimensions inhibiting his upside. But there have been plenty of players with similar dimensions to become quality NBA PGs by having great speed and athleticism:
Height
Wingspan
Draft Slot
Devon Dotson
6’2
6’3.25
TBD
Chris Paul
6’1
6’4.25
4
Kemba Walker
6’1
6’3.5″
9
Ty Lawson
6’0.5″
6’0.75″
18
Kyle Lowry
6’0
6’2
24
Tony Parker
6’2
6’4
28
These players all had various strengths that Dotson lacked, but that’s some excellent value relative to slot on all of them.
He isn’t the defensive pitbull that Lowry was, as his offensive rebound and steal rates pale in comparison. But Lowry slid in the draft due to being very raw offensively, as he attempted a meager 18 3PA as a sophomore and had a similarly low assist rate and completely lacked Dotson’s ability to get to the rim and finish.
Tony Parker is interesting, because he made a career of getting to the rim and finishing which is also Dotson’s specialty. Parker wasn’t a great passer when he entered the league, and he never developed a 3 point shot. Dotson is likely going to be a better shooter, and may not be all that much worse at passing if he develops similarly well.
The other interesting comp is Kemba Walker, because they have an eerie number of parallels: they have nearly identical dimensions, they were similar RSCI (Kemba #15, Dotson #20), both are speedy and excel at getting to the rim, both have a winning pedigree (Kemba for winning an NCAA title and Dotson for being best player on best team in season w/o tourney), and both showed major improvement over NCAA college career
Also we can neatly compare their career NCAA stats since their average age weight by minutes is near identical (Dotson is 23 days older):
ORB%
DRB%
STL%
BLK%
FTr
3P%
FT%
3PA/40
Kemba
3.6
10.5
3
0.7
0.474
0.326
0.783
4.2
Dotson
2.1
10.2
2.9
0.4
0.458
0.332
0.808
3.9
Kemba has an advantage in ORB%, perhaps indicating a slight athleticism advantage, and other than that they are basically twins.
They also both had big breakouts in their final college season, so let’s compare those numbers pace adjusted per 40.
Pts
2PA
2P%
3PA
FT%
AST
TOV
Kemba
26.1
13.9
0.471
6.2
0.819
5
2.5
Dotson
20.8
10.2
0.541
4.7
0.836
4.6
2.8
Kemba stands out as better with greater scoring and assist volume and lower assists and higher 3PA rate.
Dotson was much more efficient inside the arc, and he likely could have stretched his usage. And as mentioned previously, Bill Self suppresses assists in a way that Jim Calhoun doesn’t (even Ben Gordon averaged more assists per 40 in each of his 3 seasons at UConn), so Dotson could actually be the slightly better passer here. And he was 3 months younger
Ultimately it’s close, but Kemba gets the clear edge for his pullup shooting advantage that he was able to build on to become good NBA point guard. It’s super unlikely that Dotson is ever able to match Kemba’s volume and efficiency from 3, and ultimately this comp is a big longshot for him. After all, it was a longshot that even Kemba became himself based on pre-draft.
But it’s fun to note because the parallels are strong, and Kemba was an excellent return on a #9 overall pick. Dotson may be able to carve out his own brand of overachievement that comes in a more efficient mold that fits into a wider range of lineups.
Bottom Line
At a glance Dotson is a warty upperclassmen who seems like he makes sense as a fringe first rounder, but if we really dig into him he is littered with reasons for optimism.
Expectations need to be tempered, because he still is a little guy who likely is not a floor general or high volume 3 point shooter. But if things develop well for him, he has a decent upside tail which is more than can be said for most prospects in the draft.
And even if things don’t develop perfectly, he can have a career as a helpful role player on winning teams. The benefit to his mold is that if he is not meant to be an offensive hub, he pairs well as a secondary creator next to a number of star wings: Luka, Giannis, LeBron, Simmons, Harden, Kawhi. He doesn’t need to hit his upside to be a useful piece on a contending team.
Even though Dotson isn’t a lottery pick on paper, it is easy to see him providing value for a lottery pick longterm. It’s difficult to say exactly where to place him, but he has potential to be anywhere from a nice role player pickup to monster value in late round 1 or early round 2.
It’s difficult to analyze this draft without getting frustrated by the lack of exciting prospects. Like any draft, there are inevitably a few hidden gems. But looking through ESPN’s current top 10, half of them do not belong in a typical lottery.
I recently wrote no hot takes this year, but before diving in, let’s clarify the definition. I will still share my contrarian views, and rank the prospects different from consensus accordingly. But the goal is to be more level headed while trying to consider how I may be wrong, and only stray heavily from consensus when it seems painfully obvious.
Anyhow, here are 6 players slated to go top 12 that my past self would call lock busts who belong nowhere near round 1. As of now I am still trying to discern exactly where to rate each of them, and perhaps in this draft a few of these guys might actually belong in the lottery.
So for now let’s list them out by ESPN ranking and walk through the causes for concern and possible paths to quality NBA careers in spite of their flaws:
4. Obi Toppin
Obi has one really big strength– he is an explosive athlete and finisher, making 69% of his 2P in two years at Dayton.
And that’s his only real strength. His passing and shooting are OK, and his 7’2″ wingspan and explosiveness give him a chance at defensive competence. But there are a number of concerns.
First, he was playing in an ideal system to post the statistics he did. Even during his redshirt year, Dayton had the 2nd best 2P% in NCAA led by freshman PG Jalen Crutcher. It’s not just Obi– the whole team feasts on easy interior shots. Obi is a great finisher regardless, but he likely would have posted a less outlier 2P% in a different offense playing against tougher competition.
While he shot 41.7% from 3 in his two years at Dayton, that was only over 103 attempts. He didn’t have a great 3PA rate and his 70.6% FT is only OK for a prospect who turned 22 in March.
Similarly, he has nearly as many assists as turnovers which is decent for a 6’9″ big, but considering his age it’s only OK.
And in spite of his physical tools, he may be an absolute turnstile on defense. He doesn’t move well laterally, and has underwhelming blocks for a big. He may be too stiff to guard the perimeter and too small to guard the paint.
Toppin had a curiously low 6.4% offensive rebound rate for a player with his size and athleticism. It’s worth wondering if he is lacking in motor and/or toughness, as he also has a pedestrian free throw rate.
Toppin played in a highly favorable environment to pad his stats and has a number of scary flaws. Considering that he redshirted as a sophomore aged freshman for a rebuilding mid-major team, there’s a serious concern that he’s an ordinary offensive prospect who is a disaster on D.
What is especially crazy is that he is currently ranked above Onyeka Okongwu. They have similar dimensions, but for a prospect who is 2 years 9 months older and played in a much more favorable offense, his offense isn’t that much better. It really isn’t clear who is the better offensive prospect between the two: 26.4 usg 122 ortg vs 23.4 usg 119 ORtg.
Even if we give Obi a slight offensive edge, Okongwu easily makes up for it with a monstrous advantage on defense. There is simply no defense for choosing Obi over Onyeka.
Where does this leave Obi? It’s tough to say. He has similar #’s to Montrezl Harrell with slightly better passing and shooting but worse ORebs, FT%, and 2″ less length. If you get a different flavor of Harrell in this lottery, that’s a favorable outcome.
That said, Harrell went in round 2 in a much deeper draft, and there’s no clear reason to value Obi higher as he is not guaranteed to share similar success. Harrell was great value in round 2, and there’s a good chance Obi would be as well, but his true value likely lies somewhere in the middle of where he is rated and Harrell was chosen.
Edit: Obi’s wingspan is actually 6’11”, not 7’2″ which is being commonly reported. This explains his pedestrian steal + block rates, and puts a dent in the likelihood he can overcome his lateral issues defensively.
5. Deni Avdija
Deni’s appeal is that he brings a little bit of everything. He is 6’8″, can shoot a little, handle a little, pass a little, move reasonably well on defense, and just turned 19 in January.
But on the flipside, he doesn’t bring much of anything. He has a meager 6’9.5″ wingspan, is lacking in strength, and is only an OK athlete. He doesn’t get many steals or blocks, and there’s a limit to his defensive upside even though he is considered solid on that end.
And there are major concerns about his shooting. He takes a good rate of 3PA, but only has made 33% while shooting a gross 59% from the line. If we include his 18-19 numbers drop to 31% 3P and 55.6% FT. He is still young with time to improve, and he may be better from three than free throws, but there is serious concern that he will never be a decent shooter.
His best quality is likely his passing, with a good assist to turnover ratio for his size and youth, averaging 3.7 assists and 2.9 turnovers per 40 this season. But his passing impact is limited by his low usage rate, as he posted just 21% usage in BSL and 15.6% in Euroleague.
His Euroleague performance is especially concerning when you consider the low level of competition in BSL. He has posted merely a 10.5 PER in 371 Euroleague minutes this year, raising the concern that he may lack the skills and physicality to make any significant impact against higher levels of competition.
Ultimately it seems like the hope is that he improves his shooting and provides quality defense and a willingness to move the ball and avoid mistakes as a 6’8″ wing role player. And it’s easy to see him develop into a passable role player, especially as wings become more essential toward filling out NBA lineups.
But he has a huge downside tail if his defense and shooting flop, he is not going to be playable. And even if they become decent, what other meat is there on his profile to make him collectively above average? He needs to vastly improve his handle and scoring, otherwise he’s a very boring 3 + D prospect who may not even be good at either 3 or D.
8. Isaac Okoro
Okoro’s selling point is that he is custom built to guard James Harden 1 on 1. He has a great frame and quickness, and projects to be a good man to man defensive player. He’s like a bigger and better Luguentz Dort, who seems like possibly good value for an UDFA.
I say “possibly” because who really knows how to value Dort. He’s a guard who posted 7.6 PER and -3.7 BPM as a rookie. He may stick around for an NBA career, but there’s still a relatively low cap on his upside, even though his man defense thus far has looked about as good as one could have hoped.
Further, there is more to defense than locking down Harden. Okoro is only 6’6″ with a 6’10” wingspan, which makes him a bit too small to guard stars like LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Giannis. His lack of length shows in his pedestrian steal rate, and his team defense likely doesn’t measure up to his reputation as a man defender.
And curiously, he has a terrible 8.8% defensive rebound rate which looms as a stain on his resume for a player with his tools. Although this is somewhat mitigated by a solid 6.4% offensive rebound rate, it doesn’t sit well for a prospect who projects to be a one way defensive guard.
So he really needs to amount to *something* offensively to justify a top 10 slot. As a freshman for Auburn, he had an average usage rate, barely more assists than turnovers (2.6 vs 2.5 per 40), and mediocre shooting 29% 3P on low volume, 67% FT. There’s not much to work with on this end.
If there is something to build on, it’s his 60% 2P and good free throw rate. He has a limited ability to attack off the dribble, but when he did he showed good footwork and finishing, and didn’t shy from contact. He is a good athlete and still only 19– perhaps building on this is his path to offensive decency.
But it’s a relatively thin path for a top 10 pick. He is similar physically to Justise Winslow who was clearly better as an NCAA freshman yet hasn’t been able to amount to much offensively in the NBA. Okoro’s only real advantage over Winslow is better interior scoring, so perhaps he can parlay that into a similar or slightly better NBA player in spite of his disadvantages. But lots of times he’s going to be a dud offensively who just doesn’t bring enough size to the table defensively to make his offense worth stomaching.
9. Precious Achiuwa
Achiuwa’s Memphis team summarizes his NBA prospects– very good defensively, awful offensively, and ultimately overhyped.
He is 6’9 with 7’1.5″ wingspan with good athleticism. He was a very good rebounder with good steals and blocks for the #5 defensive team in the country. There’s quite a bit of potential for him on this end as a small center or a big wing.
But the only problem is that you need to stomach his offense. He only made 60% FT, and shot a low rate of 3PA (13/40). He also had a horrible 1.3 vs 3.7 assists vs TOVs per 40. And in spite of his size and athleticism he posted a pedestrian 51% 2P because he loves to chuck mid-range shots. Collectively he was a high usage player with dreadful efficiency.
And to make matters worse, he is an old freshman, turning 21 in September. This makes it difficult to forgive his flaws and gamble on his tools and defensive playmaking anyway.
Even if develops a passable shot, that assist:TOV likely rules him out from being an adequate perimeter player offensively. Precious needs quite a few things to go right to be able to fit in an NBA offense without being incredibly harmful.
And the thing is it’s not like he’s a GOAT tier defensive prospect. He has merely shown good playmaking potential, but still is prone to getting lost.
One interesting aside: Okungwu, Toppin, and Achiuwa all have similar physical profiles and are projected to go in the #4 thru #9 range. Except Obi and Precious are one way prospects, and if you combine their good side of the balls into one prospect, it’s STILL not clear if that prospect is better than Okongwu. Onyeka is the such the obvious gem in the rough here.
Anyhow, at some point it makes sense to roll the dice on Precious tools and hope he learns how to not trainwreck the offense whenever he steps on the floor and live up to his defensive potential. Where that it is hard to say, because his offense looks very rough right now.
10. Aaron Nesmith
Nesmith has an NBA body at 6’6″ with a 6’10” wingspan, is a good shooter, and has good intangibles, and that’s about the extent of his goodness.
He isn’t a good ball handler or passer, and he isn’t a good athlete or defensive player. He’s just a shooter, so how far can that really go?
It depends on how good he becomes at shooting. With modern emphasis on 3’s, it has become increasingly common for players to make a high rate of 40%+ 3PA.
I had a similar critique of Buddy Hield, and this past season he made 39.4% 3P on 15.1 3PA per 100 possessions. Reggie Miller in his career made 39.5% from 3 on 7.1 3PA/100. Miller. 15 years ago Miller was the all time 3 pointer leader, now we have Hield more than doubling his rate of attempts at a similar percentage. That can atone for quite a few deficiencies.
Hield isn’t the only one. Steph Curry is the obvious example of an overpowered 3. Seth Curry and especially Duncan Robinson have gone on to improbably useful NBA careers because of their elite 3P% on high volume. JJ Redick has aged very well into his 30’s by increasing both his 3PA rate and 3P%. Even Doug McDermott finally had a good season this year by posting a career his 3P% with a huge spike in his 3PA rate.
In recent years, making an outlier impact on shooting with a great 3P% and 3PA rate is becoming increasingly possible, so being a one dimensional shooter doesn’t cap a player’s upside as much as it used to. So the big question is– how likely is Nesmith to become an outlier shooter?
Shooting is difficult to predict with loads of randomness, so the short answer is “not very likely”. But it’s worth discussing the possibility. If we stick to the Hield comparison and look at their career college shooting numbers, they are very close:
3PA/100
3P%
FT%
Nesmith
11.7
41.0
82.5
Buddy
12.3
39.0
83.6
And it looks even better for Nesmith considering that he is leaving for the draft at 2 years 10 months younger than Hield. Buddy was a huge underdog to become an elite NBA shooter based on his NCAA statistics, but his elite work ethic enabled him to make a huge leap as an NCAA senior and continue to build on that in the NBA.
Nesmith is also known for great work ethic and leadership, so why can’t he follow Buddy’s trail of defying the odds to become a great shooter?
The major concern is that Nesmith has a relatively slow release, whereas Buddy had a lightning quick trigger. This is going to make it difficult to consistently get off quality attempts vs NBA defenses, let alone at the insane rate that Buddy attempts and makes them.
Further, the bulk of Nesmith’s good shooting came against horrible competition. As a freshman he shot 33.7% on 11 3PA per 100, and as a sophomore he shot 52.2% on 13.1 3PA/100. This may indicate some level of improvement, but Vanderbilt played one of the softest non-conference schedules in the country, and then after one SEC game vs Auburn Nesmith injured his foot and missed the rest of the season.
It’s difficult to say how much was genuine improvement vs simply happening to get hot vs weak low major opponents who don’t have the size or athleticism to challenge his slow-ish release.
While his intangibles and work ethic cannot rule out the possibility that he learns to be a 40%+ NBA shooter on good volume, it’s not necessarily something that is wise to bet on. And if he becomes a 37% shooter on an ordinary 3PA rate, he’s not going to be more than a fringe rotation player because he doesn’t offer enough otherwise.
12. Saddiq Bey
Rodney Hood’s long lost twin brother enters the 2020 draft with similar stock to Hood in 2014, since going #21 in 2014 is similar to #12 in 2020.
Both guys are 6’8″ with good efficiency and shooting in medium usage roles, great assist to turnovers, and underwhelming rebounds, steals, and blocks.
Even though Hood was a solid return on the #21 overall pick, it’s still arguable that he was overdrafted. For Utah he worked out about as well as he possibly could have, and he was still merely a decent role player. On other teams he has regressed and become an ordinary bench player.
Now Bey’s best case scenario is likely around the Utah version of Hood. But his worst case is quite a bit lower, because he is slow and his shot is a big question mark. He made 41.8% of his career 3P at Villanova, but his 3PA rate was pedestrian, as was his 72.8% FT. He has wonky shooting mechanics, and there’s some risk his 3 point shooting at Villanova was largely luck. Hood has become an above average NBA shooter, and the same cannot be assured for Bey.
Bey’s biggest advantage over Hood is 2.5″ greater wingspan at 6’11”, and Villanova tends to produce intelligent role players. So it’s not difficult to envision him as a useful pro like the Utah version of Hood. But that’s not the sexiest upside given his risk of having below average shooting and lacking the athleticism to guard anybody in the NBA.
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Dean On Draft 