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Four Factors of Cade Cunningham’s Offense

12 Monday Jul 2021

Posted by deanondraft in NCAA

≈ 19 Comments

Tags

alperen sengun, cade cunningham, franz wagner, jalen suggs, scottie barnes

Any generational prospect should be able to compare favorably to other similar prospects. Cade Cunningham has great dimensions, frame, and shooting ability, but let’s see how he stacks up to past top 3 picks who were teenage offensive hubs at wing or guard.

In this case we will look at 2P% since that is more predictive of creation ability and less noisy than eFG%, assist to turnover ratio which more informative than raw TOV%, as well as offensive rebounding and free throw drawing over the past 20 drafts.

YearProspectAge2P%AST:TOOR%FTr
2021Cade Cunningham19.30.4610.862.30.39
2021Scottie Barnes19.40.5611.667.40.339
2021Jalen Suggs19.60.5881.552.70.367
2020Anthony Edwards18.40.5041.052.50.338
2019RJ Barrett18.50.5291.334.80.319
2019Ja Morant19.40.5451.954.10.51
2019Zion Williamson18.50.7470.8712.70.467
2017Jayson Tatum18.80.5040.824.80.381
2017Markelle Fultz18.60.5021.8540.383
2016Ben Simmons19.40.5611.429.60.769
2016Brandon Ingram18.30.464160.351
2016Jaylen Brown19.20.4820.654.50.574
2015D’Angelo Russell18.80.4791.723.60.303
2014Andrew Wiggins18.90.4930.688.40.538
2012Bradley Beal18.50.5411.054.80.44
2010John Wall19.30.5041.622.60.53
2009James Harden19.30.5641.255.40.597
2008Derrick Rose19.30.5211.7750.47
2008OJ Mayo20.20.4640.933.90.284
2007Kevin Durant18.30.5050.4690.396
2003Carmelo Anthony18.60.49618.90.389
Average19.00.5251.215.60.435

These guys are all in a roughly 1 year age range outside of old man OJ Mayo, and Cade is in the upper portion of that range. Among this group he rates dead last in 2P% and offensive rebounding rate, and is solidly below average in assist to turnover and free throw rate.

Scottie Barnes and Jalen Suggs are both projected outside of the top 3 in this year’s draft but they absolutely destroy Cade as efficient offensive hubs in terms of 2P% and assist:TOV ratio.

Even prospects seen as decidedly non-elite such as Anthony Edwards and RJ Barrett were better at everything except having a slightly lower free throw rate while being nearly a full year younger. Cade is bigger and better at shooting, but his basketball playing ability is not clearly above these guys by any means. Yet neither received a fraction of the hype and adoration that Cade has garnered.

Cade has been compared to Ben Simmons with a jump shot, which is ridiculous since Simmons demolishes him in all 4 categories.

Cade has also been compared to a bigger James Harden, which is also comical since Harden destroys him in all 4 categories. And Harden also destroyed him in all 4 as a freshman when he was nearly a full year younger.

Athletic guards like Bradley Beal, John Wall, Derrick Rose, and Ja Morant topped him in all 4 categories and Markelle Fultz was only a hair behind in FT rate.

Jayson Tatum is the only player that Cade edges out in 2 categories with better assist to turnover and free throw rate by a hair each while being about half a year older. And unlike the rest of the list, Cade is not bigger or better at shooting than Tatum. And Tatum was not perceived as a can’t miss star entering the draft by any stretch.

Brandon Ingram has similar dimensions and was a full year younger than Cade trumping him at all categories except slightly lower free throw rate, and he still was bad at NBA basketball for 3 seasons before figuring it out.

Jaylen Brown is an outlier NCAA statistical overperformer, yet he still trumps Cade in 3 of 4 categories.

Cade was a better NCAA shooter than Tatum, Ingram, and Brown, but each of those three makes 38-40% NBA 3P– what are the odds that Cade is significantly better than them as a pro? He could be one of the all time great NBA shooters, but it’s very rare for high usage guys outside of Steph to make > 40% from 3.

OJ Mayo is a bit older than this group, but his statistical profile to highly similar to Cade. He dominated high school by being physically developed early, then showed up to NCAA with less athleticism than anticipated but still did fairly well by being an OK enough creator and knockdown shooter at 41% 3P 80% FT. If Cade is a bigger OJ Mayo, that’s a useful NBA player, but is it really a guy you take top 3?

Carmelo Anthony profiles similarly to Cade physically and stylistically as an iso scorer who relies on his jump shooting. But he crushes Cade on rebounds, with solidly better 2P% and assist:TOV while being 8 months younger and leading Syracuse to an NCAA title. Melo wasn’t the most efficient fellow in the NBA, so if Cade is a less efficient version of the same thing– is he really worth a top 3 pick?

The Limit of Shooting

While shooting is a vitally important part of basketball, it is its own skill in isolation and does not connect to other parts of the game. Especially not the physical or cerebral ones that lend themselves to greatness.

Players like Dirk and Durant have been able to dominate with shooting using their elite height and reach to get their shot off whenever they want. But Cade doesn’t have that same reach, and is going to need to rely on his basketball playing ability.

And if you watch him play, there are multiple issues that come up. He is not crafty or explosive enough to create many easy attempts for himself, and often bullies his way as close to the rim as possible until pulling up for a difficult contested shot.

While he is a willing passer who moves the ball in transition and sees the floor well, he is only a good but not great passer and detracts with turnovers as his loose handle often gets stripped and he frequently throws sloppy passes away.

He has a rudimentary approach to offense where he loves to spam the pass or shoot button without putting much thought into the quality of shot that ensues. In tandem with his loose handle, this leads to frequent turnovers for himself as well as his teammates who often receive his passes in difficult 1 on 2 situations.

These flaws would all be easier to forgive if he was more physically dominant, but he rebounds offensively as well as a small guard and gets to the line at an ordinary rate. He does not have the best motor or effort, and does not atone for his offensive mistakes with defensive dominance, and it is not clear that he is on track to become an above average defensive player in the NBA.

These sum to fairly significant flaws, and are not typical concerns for a top 3 pick let alone a consensus #1 overall.

Do the Numbers Reflect Reality?

To some extent he was in a suboptimal situation playing for a not so good NCAA coach surrounded by mostly defensive talent, but that is the case for most elite prospects. NCAA coaches and offenses are typically not good, but the true studs find a way to stuff the stat sheet anyhow.

There is some small possibility that he was affected by the pandemic, which caused him to underperform in the mental aspects of the game relative to his prior expectations. You would need to strongly believe that some combination of COVID and suboptimal situation dimmed his output to even think about him at #1.

But there is the other possibility that the guy has a basic operating system that was in effective in high school where he physically developed sooner than his peers and often was playing on all-star teams that could outrun everybody in transition. And now taking the step up to NCAA against guys physically closer to him, his limited basketball IQ is getting exposed. This is something that happens much more frequently to hyped prospects than having their talent hidden by poor NCAA situations, so it is the most likely explanation for his performance.

Also it is worth noting that if you want to give extra weight to his priors for other aspects, it is also worth considering he significantly outperformed his expectation as a shooter. If he shoots like his NCAA self and plays like his high school self he will be very good, but if he shoots like his high school self and plays like his NCAA self, he is going to be massively disappointing.

Is Cade Obviously Top 3 in this Draft?

Cade offers some major warts that are not typically stomached by top 3 picks, so why is beyond the shadow of a doubt in the top 3 in this draft? Because his shooting is THAT valuable? Because we are that certain that his situation dragged down his numbers in a way that has yet to happen with past top 3 picks? An explanation would be nice, because there is nothing on film or in his stat sheet that makes anything obvious other than he has a fairly easy path to a decent NBA starter.

But even that is far from a lock if he is going to be developed into a suckier Carmelo Anthony rather than a bigger Klay Thompson who provides elite 3 + D support.

Evan Mobley plays with a surgical precision in terms of his movement and decision making that obviously trumps Cade’s style of bludgeoning you to death with difficult shot attempts. He is hands down the better prospect.

It seems that some people have accepted that Mobley is better or it is close. But that’s where it ends. The idea that Cade might not be top 2 is a taboo idea in a world where prospects like RJ Barrett and Anthony Edwards were relentlessly bashed for warts arguably less significant than what Cade brings to the table.

Why do we need to take him over Jalen Suggs, who is cerebrally multiple tiers above Cade as well as more athletic and efficient? Cade is bigger and better at shooting, but it is not clear that this is more valuable.

Why do we need to take him above Scottie Barnes who is physically superior with slightly better dimensions, and far better offensive efficiency and defensive effort? Cade has a major shooting advantage and Barnes has nasty flaws in his defensive fundamentals that need improvement, but you are more likely to get a superstar from a guy like Barnes who needs to learn to shoot than a guy like Cade who can already shoot but needs to learn how to play.

Even after those guys, Franz Wagner offers pristine decision making and defensive play while having better dimensions than Cade and not being clearly worse at shooting. Cade had a better shooting signal this season, but Franz has made > 80% FT and taken a decent rate of 3PA since he was 16, and this is the first season that Cade did either.

Cade theoretically has more upside because of his creation that is less efficient than any top 3 pick basically ever. But why do we NEED to gamble on inefficient creation just in case it becomes efficient, especially in a non-elite athlete lacking a strong first step. They are the same age, and there is zero question that Franz is the better player right now. Per 100 stats:

2P2PA3P3PAFTFTAASTTOV
Franz5.910.52.36.84.45.35.62.4
Cade6.5143.68.97.68.95.46.2

You are basically stomaching an extra 3.8 Cade turnovers and 3.5 2PA than mostly brick for what? 2.1 more 3PA and 3.6 FTA? It’s not apples to apples since Michigan is a better offense with a better coach and Cade is playing a more difficult role, but come on now. Cade’s creation is mostly just more bricks and turnovers than Franz, and Franz is essentially a lock to be better defensively. If Cade isn’t a significantly better shooter who figures out how to navigate defenses that can match up with him athletically over time, he isn’t going to be a more useful NBAer than Franz.

I have already written about Cade’s numbers paling in comparison to those of Alperen Sengun, but let’s revisit since looking at their numbers side by side is so fascinating

ProspectAgeeFG%A:TOOR%FTr
Cade19.30.5150.862.30.39
Sengun18.40.6411.1117.50.61

It is inherently more efficient to run offense through a perimeter ball handler like Cade rather than a post player like Sengun, but can anybody look at these numbers with a straight face and say that Cade is a clear favorite to be the better offensive player in the NBA?

And the crazy thing is Sengun isn’t even that far behind as a shooter and has superior steal and block rates. It is not clear who projects to be the better defensive player. Frankly is it not clear that Cade projects to be better at Sengun at anything outside of shooting, where Sengun could close the gap in time.

Wing Creators are Only Valuable when they are Good

There seems to be an assumption that because Cade was the #1 RSCI that he is an elite wing creator, and that all of his shortcomings can be attributed to bad teammates. But that is just not something that happens to prospects who are good enough to run an NBA offense based on every comparison that can be found in the past 20 years.

The most analogous prospect to Cade in terms of both distribution of strengths and weaknesses and playing situation is likely Khris Middleton. He played for Texas A&M who thrived on bully ball and defense, as their offense was driven by offensive rebounds and free throws with mediocre shot making and turnover rates during his sophomore season– much like Oklahoma State.

ProspectAge2P%A:TOOR%FTr
Cade19.30.4610.862.30.39
Khris19.40.4921.048.20.418

Yet Middleton was slightly better across the board at the same age and still slid to round 2. This is in part because he was hidden by starting college early as a young freshman and battling injuries and bad 3P% variance as a junior when he missed 12 games and shot 26% behind the arc.

Cade was a much better NCAA shooter, but Middleton is a career 40% 3P, 88% FT shooter in the NBA, and it is not likely Cade is better by any significant margin.

But even based on his NBA success, he definitely was never a #1 overall talent. He is a highly useful secondary piece who provides a nice intersection of shooting, passing, and defense to be a low end all-star, but is only in the NBA finals because he is playing alongside 2x MVP Giannis.

And based on the numbers, Cade is a clear underdog to be as good as Middleton in the NBA. If you give extra weight to his priors and slightly better dimensions, then perhaps he is only a small underdog to be Middleton, but that is not the type of player you target at #1 overall.

This is especially true that when he is being drafted to be a primary creator instead of a complementary piece, which makes it more likely that he follows a suboptimal developmental path. This is what happened to Andrew Wiggins when he was overused as an inefficient high volume creator.

So when you are running the risk of getting a guy who is technically NBA caliber but somewhat gross to max like a different flavor of Andrew Wiggins, taller OJ Mayo, or less efficient Carmelo Anthony in the hopes of landing Khris Middleton or at best Jayson Tatum, but zero chance of Luka or Harden. That is not a guy who obviously belongs in the top 3, let alone #1 overall.

This Lottery is Good

It would be one thing to lock in Cade as #1 in a draft like last year where nobody really stood out in a sea of mediocrity. But this year has so many more interesting options at the top. Mobley is a legit #1 candidate, and then Suggs, Barnes, Franz, and Sengun are all nice consolation prizes.

Cade’s priors should count for something, especially in light of the pandemic adding randomness to the season. We cannot assume his NCAA performance was indicative of his precise self, so perhaps he is the correct #2 overall.

But at the same time, his NCAA warts were so nasty both on the stat sheet and on film, that it is difficult to treat his goodness with any certainty. It is simply not clear that he is one of the best 5 prospects in a talented lottery.

This may sound like a hot take at face value, but the only past top 3 pick who really shared his distribution of strengths and weaknesses was OJ Mayo, and he even pales in comparison to 2nd rounder Khris Middleton. So the real hot take is consensus’s idea that he is a clear #1 overall, as there is no information that even remotely supports the notion.

Jalen Green vs. Franz Wagner: How Much Should Creation Be Valued?

03 Saturday Jul 2021

Posted by deanondraft in Uncategorized

≈ 10 Comments

Tags

franz wagner, jalen green

Shot creation is a vital part of basketball, as any NBA offense needs at least one guy who can be relied on to create offense for the team off the dribble.

But at the same time, it is prone to being overrated by casual fans who can discern scoring more easily than nuanced abilities such as passing, defense, and efficiency.

Let’s explore the topic through the lens of two polar opposite prospects– Jalen Green whose value largely centers around shot creation, and Franz Wagner who offers everything but volume scoring.

Jalen Green

Green’s appeal can be summarized with this one highlight where he crosses his defender and then dunks on 3 help defenders shortly after turning 19. He is exceptionally athletic and shows scoring potential rarely seen that young. He also showed promise as a jump shooter, making 35.8% 3P and 78.6% FT in his small shooting sample for G League Ignite.

But otherwise he is full of warts. He did not officially measure, but is likely around 6’5″ with a 6’8″ wingspan and a thin frame. He is a small SG who can only guard 1.5 positions, and not particularly well as his effort and fundamentals are both lackluster. And since he is being drafted to score and most of his energy will be devoted to doing so, he is not a strong bet to make major improvements on defense. He isn’t drawing dead to be a neutral or better defensive player in the NBA, but he is a clear underdog.

Further, he is not much of a passer averaging barely more assists (2.8) than turnovers (2.7), as he is clearly a score first guard. Passing is a significant part of creation, and being a non-elite passer puts a cap on his offensive upside. It also likely necessitates that he plays next to another distributor, which tends to skew small and further hurts the defense.

In terms of comps, Zach LaVine or Devin Booker are the guys that Green matches the most closely. Perhaps there is wiggle room for him to be slightly better than those guys, but it is difficult to find a clear example historically.

Vince Carter would be the highly optimistic comp, but he was approximately 1″ taller, 3″ longer, and much stronger and more capable of matching up with a wider range of opponents. That’s a significant enough difference in size such that it’s not a reasonable comparison to make.

Historically there is a cap on the upside of little guys who aren’t great passers, and it’s right around the Booker or LaVine level.

Franz Wagner

Franz lacks the explosive athleticism of Green as well as the volume scoring, as he posted a pedestrian 19.2 usage rate as a sophomore for Michigan.

But otherwise he is absolutely dripping with goodness. This lottery is loaded with good passers, but Franz has the best assist:TOV of the entire crop:

ProspectHeightAgeAST%AST:TOV
Franz6’919.317.32.33
Davion6’122.327.72.26
Giddey6’818.236.32.25
Barnes6’819.431.71.66
Suggs6’419.623.71.55
Mobley7’019.514.21.07
Green6’518.913.51.05
Cade6’819.320.40.86

He is better than Giddey who is a historically good passing prospect. He is above Davion who is 3 years younger, 8 inches shorter, and inexplicably projected to get picked higher than him. He is about 50% higher than Barnes and Suggs who are the same age and very good passing prospects. And he nearly 3x’s the rate of Mr. Cunningham, the consensus #1 overall point forward.

He has a lower volume of creation for both himself and teammates than most of these guys, but his turnover rate is microscopic. And this embodies Franz in a nutshell– the guy almost *never* makes mistakes. And even though his volume is low, he is not racking up easy assists– he often finds the big for a layup with an impressive wraparound pass off the dribble.

His lack of mistakes is also apparent in his defensive play. He moves his feet about as well as any 19 year old prospect ever, which is especially valuable given his excellent dimensions at 6’9″ with 7’0″ wingspan. He is also a highly intelligent defender and rarely makes mistakes on this end, and it shows in his ridiculous on/off splits:

Michigan had the #4 defense in the NCAA, and Franz was a heavy driving force behind their success.

This doesn’t necessarily mean he will be a generational NBA defensive player, as his lack of strength and athleticism led to pedestrian rebounding. But he is going to be good on this end and possibly excellent.

He only made 32.5% from 3 in NCAA, but he shot a decent rate of 3PA and made 83.5% FT. He should develop NBA 3 point range in due time.

And he isn’t a slouch at creating. He has a competent handle, and uses smooth footwork to step through seams in the defense and finish. Now let’s get on to comps:

Otto Porter

Porter and Franz are physically similar hyper-efficient wings with a similar statistical profiles in college:

AgeUSGORtgORB%DRB%AST%A:TOSTL%BLK%FTr
Franz19.319.2119.52.919.617.32.332.33.20.304
Otto19.623.4118.86.71918.51.793.330.449

At a glance, Otto seems slightly better across the board. But if we dig deeper, he has a few fake advantages over Franz. He has a significantly better steal rate, except everybody on Georgetown racked up steals whereas Juwan Howard massively suppresses steal rates of everybody who comes to Michigan:

PlayerStl% for Other CoachStl% for JuwanDifference
Zavier Simpson2.91.7-41.4%
Isaiah Livers1.61-37.5%
Mike Smith2.30.9-60.9%
Chaundee Brown1.10.4-63.6%
Eli Brooks1.81.7-5.6%
David DeJulius1.71.2-29.4%
Jon Teske22.15.0%
Average1.91.3-33.3%

Collectively Franz got 29.1% of his team’s steals vs 23.8% for Otto in spite of playing a slightly lower % of his team’s total minutes (15.8% vs 16.9%). He likely would have had a 3%+ steal rate playing for an ordinary college defense.

Otto has a slightly higher assist rate, but Georgetown ran the Princeton offense where *everybody* gets a boost to assists. He had a lower assist rate than starting center Nate Lubick (20.1%) while fellow frontcourt mates Nate Lubick (14.7%), Mikael Hopkins (13.7%), and Greg Whittington (13.2%) weren’t too far behind.

Meanwhile Franz had a higher assist rate than everybody but PG Mike Smith, and among frontcourt players only Isaiah Livers (11.6%) was in double digits. In tandem with his higher assist:TOV ratio, it seems reasonable to say that Franz was the better passer at the same age.

While Otto did have the slightly higher usage, Franz created his own shot at the rim in the halfcourt more frequently (0.99 per 40 vs 0.40). And while Franz ORtg doesn’t fully justify the the usage gap, Michigan did face better defenses by 3.6 pts per 100 and Otto shot 42.2% from 3 vs 34.3% from Franz. But if you look at their sum shooting stats from both years in school, Franz has the slightly better signal:

2P%3PA/1003P%FT%
Otto0.554.70.3550.751
Franz0.58380.3250.835

Eventually Otto developed into a 40%+ 3 point shooter and Franz is a clear underdog to catch him here, but he clearly has upside based on his FT% and 3PA rate.

Physically, Franz is ~0.5″ taller and Otto is ~1.5″ longer, and neither are explosive athletes. Franz was listed 15 pounds heavier (220 vs 205), and didn’t measure at the combine while Otto measured underweight at 197. In spite of that, Otto showed more willingness to mix it up on the offensive glass and drew more free throws, which is his one clear advantage over Franz based on the numbers.

Otto was an incredibly rare prospect, but after digging in Franz is similarly rare with a similar distribution of strengths and weaknesses. Both guys showed a unique ability to dominate with dimensions and outlier avoidance of mistakes. Porter is THE comp for Franz.

The next best comp is likely Mikal Bridges:

AgeUSGORtgORB%DRB%AST%A:TOSTL%BLK%
Franz19.319.2119.52.919.617.32.332.33.2
Mikal19.314.4125.25.712.47.51.463.13.6

Make no mistake about it– Franz is just better than Mikal at the same age as he is 3″ taller with better defense and more creation ability and no substantial advantages for Mikal.

Mikal eventually developed into a good shooter which is not guaranteed for Franz, but it is difficult to see how his shooting is bad enough to such that he is not at least as good as Mikal based on his passing, defense, creation, and size advantages.

Bridges is a good floor comp, although ultimately Franz is clearly better and closer to Otto Porter.

Otto Porter vs Devin Booker

If we assume that Franz is the next Otto and Green is the next Booker, then who should be valued higher?

The casual fan likely will say Booker because you need a star who can create to be an elite team. But there are a few reasons to believe otherwise

Lineup Friction

Once you have one undersized, one dimensional isolation scorer, there is no value in having another. Whereas you cannot have enough Otto Porters. You can comfortably play a lineup with 3 Otto Porters or maybe even 4 in certain occasions, as long as there is one star playmaker to facilitate the offense.

Further, if you have an actual superstar like LeBron or Luka or Giannis, you are better off pairing them with an Otto Porter than a Booker or LaVine. LeBron has shown that he provides maximum value surrounded by efficient role players. Then when he teamed up with Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade in Miami, adjusted plus minus essentially said that they were going to break NBA basketball. But because of their poor synergy, they were not even better than LeBron’s final 2 years in Cleveland in their first season together.

The 73 win Golden State Warriors were great because they had one elite creator in Stephen Curry and 3 excellent role players in Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala who provided significant value without needing the ball. Harrison Barnes was a decent enough 5th wheel to round out the death lineup since he is big enough to match up physically with most opponents and capable of making open shots.

Let’s say we replace Barnes with a LaVine or Booker. That screws the defense, because it gives opponents 2 little guys to hunt and makes the overall lack of size weigh heavier. Second, it is questionable how much it helps the offense, because do you really want an isolation scorer taking away 3PA from Steph and Klay? Devin Booker’s career high eFG% is 54.4%, and the Warriors as a team shot 56.3% when they won 73.

But if you replace Barnes with Porter, you get a guy who fits the system and makes the team even more overpowered by doing everything Barnes did with much greater efficiency.

If you really want to break the NBA, you need to load up on elite well rounded role players. Isolation scorers provide diminishing returns and cap team level upside with too many of them

Creation is important but it is not scarce

There are diminishing returns to having too many shot creators, but it is still necessary to have at least one guy to be competitive. There is some value to having a Russell Westbrook keep your team out of the basement even if it results in a round 1 playoff loss.

But how many teams are sorely missing a shot creator and need a Booker type more than a Porter type? Looking at this year’s playoffs, the obvious answer is Philadelphia as they were sorely missing a perimeter creator which played a large role in their upset loss to the Hawks. After that, the Knicks could have used somebody other than Julius Randle to get buckets, although a Devin Booker still likely would not be enough to get them out of round 1.

But other than that? Forgetting injuries, the Nets obviously need a Porter type role player more than another star scorer. Ditto for the Bucks with Giannis, Middleton, and Jrue. Hawks already have Trae. You could argue that the Heat need more than Bam and Jimmy, but they were good enough to make the finals last year. Celtics have Tatum and Brown to create and a lineup with 3 big wings can create some interesting defensive possibilities. Wiz clearly need a role playing wing with two small creators in Russ and Beal.

Utah has Conley + Mitchell but could use an upgrade on Bojan or O’Neale. Suns already have 1 Devin Booker, no room for another. Nuggets already have Murray and Jokic. Clippers have PG and Kawhi to create and could use a Morris/Mann upgrade. Mavs have Luka. Blazers have Dame and CJ. Lakers have LeBron and AD. Grizzlies have Ja Morant.

Essentially 14 of 16 playoff teams already have sufficient creation and could use an elite role playing wing more than an undersized volume scoring SG. And even going slightly lower. The Warriors already have Steph and Klay, Spurs have Dejounte and DeRozan, Kings have Fox, Buddy, and Haliburton, Pelicans have Zion and Ingram, Hornets have LaMelo, Bulls have LaVine.

The Pacers could use a shot of creation to help Sabonis and Brogdon. But there are just such few teams like this that qualify outside of the really terrible bottom feeders like Orlando, Detroit, and Houston.

Why is creation valued so highly?

The fact of the matter is that creation is not that hard to find, and there are diminishing returns on it, yet teams often pay a massive premium to acquire it. Why?

The answer is likely because the best players are all elite shot creators, and it is an important part of team building to find a star who can do it efficiently. But the premium should be placed on finding a well rounded shot creator who provides value in the form of passing and/or defense, as that is what makes a superstar.

As good as Devin Booker has become, he is clearly not the best player on his team. The Suns didn’t have their breakout until adding MVP candidate Chris Paul. They also built around him perfectly with efficient guys who do not demand touches in DeAndre Ayton, Jae Crowder, and Mikal Bridges. Yet they are still a 2nd tier contender who needed massive injury luck to reach the finals.

Booker is a clearly good player and the Suns would not be as good without him. But he not some special prize that makes team building easier the way it would to land a hyper-efficient and versatile role playing wing like Otto Porter.

Back to Green vs. Franz

Bearing in mind that Franz is the more scarce commodity who fits into a wider range of lineups stylistically, let’s discuss who is more likely to provide raw value between him and Green.

It is not difficult to estimate Jalen Green’s offensive upside. Players of his size without elite passing typically cap out around +4 to +5 points per 100 offensively. Looking at 538’s RAPTOR, Bradley Beal is the gold standard with +4.3, +5.2, +5.4 in the past 3 seasons. LaVine is +1.3, +1.2, +3.9, Booker is +3.6, +4.8, +3.1, CJ McCollum is +3.3, +2.5, +3.7, Jamal Murray is +2.3, +3.0, +3.2. And all of these seasons range from like 0 to -3 defensively.

Even though his athletic scoring ability looks highly impressive, it is much more difficult to replicate consistently than somebody like Kevin Durant who can shoot over the defense with ease whenever he wants. There is a limit to the usage and efficiency a guy like him can realistically post. And he just is not going to be a Harden level passer to put him in the top tier of offensive upside.

Defensively, perhaps there is a chance he is average. He did lead his G League team in steal rate. But he is undersized with bad IQ and effort right now, and he is being drafted top 3 to get buckets. Most of his energy has historically gone toward developing his offense, why would that change now?

Green’s realistic upside is approximately +4/-1, and his optimistic upside is +5/0. But that’s REALLY optimistic since the more energy that goes into offense, the less likely he is to have acceptable defense.

Otto Porter peaked around +2 to +3 offensively during his best seasons according to RAPTOR– specifically +2.1/+1.2 and +2.9 /+1.5 which seems reasonable for him. It may be tough for Franz to match this given that Otto shot 43.4% and 44.1% from 3P in those seasons, but it was on low-ish rate of attempts and Franz may be the better creator and passer. And while I never scouted Porter’s defense in college, Franz is essentially pristine on that end and is only limited by his lack of strength and explosiveness.

So it’s really tough to say with Franz. He needs very little to go right to be +1 on either end, and +2 is clearly attainable as well. Being +3 on either end is a difficult ask for him, but he is so uniquely well rounded and good at avoiding mistakes you cannot rule it out.

Intuitively, these guys project to have similar raw values given an ideal lineup in their best cases…and it seems that Franz becoming +3/+2 is slightly more realistic than Green becoming +5/0, since he only needs to be half a point better on D than peak Otto, and when Beal and Booker get to +5 offense it tends to come attached with -2 to -3 defense.

Creation is a significant part of upside, but it is not everything. When it comes in an undersized and one dimensional player it does not necessarily create more upside than a perfectly well rounded role player.

And as another sneaky bonus– if they hit their boring outcomes, and Franz ends up as 0/+1 and Green +3/-2, Franz can be extended for a reasonable price whereas Green still likely commands a max deal for a player who isn’t that good and creates a TON of lineup friction.

Bottom Line

The narrative that shot creation yields big upside needs to be overhauled into being well rounded and versatile is important for high upside.

While creation is very important, there is only a finite amount that can fit onto any team. At any given moment, 90% of the players on the floor are not touching the ball, and to truly build an overpowered lineup like the Warriors’ death lineup, you need to load up on players who provide value outside of scoring.

Franz Wagner is uniquely good at defense, passing, avoiding turnovers, and is still a passable handler and creator. Jalen Green is the inverse player. This creates all sorts of subtle advantages for Franz.

He sneakily may have more upside than Green, he is easier to fit into a wider range of lineups, he is the more scarce commodity, and you simply have more potential to build an elite team with Franz.

Their overall values are still fairly close, and it is fairly likely that Franz will be the more useful player while casual fans believe that Green is better. Green will always have sexier highlights, and may end up with more all-star selections and jersey sales.

But if you want to build an NBA team that wins, Franz would be my choice and it would not be a particularly difficult one. Green being valued so much higher by consensus as a top 3 pick vs Franz currently at #11 is not just an inefficiency in the draft– it is an inefficiency in the common perception of basketball.

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