Tag Archives: Justise Winslow

2015 Pre-season Rookie Update: #’s 1-12

25 Sunday Oct 2015

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Star
1. Karl Towns (Final Big: 1st, Drafted: 1st)

One problem with the exercise of ranking draft prospects is that it can result in a lack of attention to a consensus #1 overall pick. After a season where 5 or 6 players could be argued to deserve the #1 pick, I have yet to see a credible argument that Towns is not the best prospect in the draft. Consequently, nobody discusses his precise level of goodness.

He’s arguably the 3rd best prospect to enter the draft post Oden/Durant. Anthony Davis is #1, and I would have taken Joel Embiid ahead of Towns before he was revealed to be an incorrigible Shirley Temple guzzler.

The next tier of prospects includes Derrick Rose, John Wall, Blake Griffin, and Kyrie Irving. Rose did not dominate college enough, and Kyrie is a non-athletic non-defense PG so I wouldn’t even consider either of them ahead of towns. Griffin and Wall both dominated college and have extreme levels of athleticism that Towns lacks, but I wouldn’t take a non-shooting non-rim protecting Griffin over a center who does both. Wall had the strongest case as an elite 2 way PG (he could have become so much better than he is), but I still favor Towns. A two way 3 point shooting center with no significant leaks in his prospect profile outside of merely good not great physical tools is just too attractive to pass up.

Of course Towns had to get drafted to the team with the most pre-historic NBA offense, and consequently he has a mere 2 attempts from 3 in the pre-season as the front office is paying Kevin Garnett $17M to mentor Towns to take jumpers with his heels on the arc. So perhaps like Wall his potential will never be fully realized, but I nevertheless rate him as the 3rd best prospect in the last 8 drafts. He should be awesome in spite of his un-sharp environment.

Good Prospects Who Are Significantly Inferior to KAT
2. Justise Winslow (Final Big: 3rd, Drafted: 10th)

Winslow has been a passing machine in the pre-season, tallying 20 assists vs 10 turnovers. This is largely due to his inability to score, as he struggled to put the biscuit in the basket from all parts of the court this pre-season. He has the ability to create quality shots for himself, but it doesn’t show in his pre-season stats as he averaged a meager 8 pts per 36 minutes.

After shooting just 25/93 (27%) on non-rim 2’s in college, Winslow only converted 2/17 of two pointers 5+ feet from the rim in the pre-season. It seems unfathomable that he can continue to be this bad from short and mid-range, but it’s nevertheless concerning if the trend continues to hold. For now, Winslow is leaning heavily on rim attempts and free throws to get his buckets.

It’s possible that he’s a career eFG% disaster if he can’t convert non-layups. But I stand by my pre-draft assessment that he is awesome at everything other than shooting. He is only 19, and he has time to learn to score away from the hoop. If he does and develops his slashing ability, he has star potential. If he doesn’t he may fall well short of the lofty praise I heaped on him pre-draft. This is a weak #2 ranking, as Justise’s scoring concerns are real and he is closer to #10 than he is to #1.

3. Stanley Johnson (Final Big: 7th, Drafted: 8th)
4. D’Angelo Russell (Final Big: 2nd, Drafted: 2nd)

This may feel like an overreaction to pre-season and summer league, but the only reason Russell ever rated ahead of Stanley is because of a not large 35 game NCAA sample. Stanley was the #3 RSCI recruit vs. Russell’s #16, and statistically the two weren’t THAT far apart. They both had questionable athleticism and questionable splits vs. good defenses, and after summer league and pre-season Russell’s concerns are much more glaring.

After a dismal summer league where Russell posted 16 assists vs 26 turnovers, he cut the turnovers in the pre-season but offered little outside of a few mid-range jumpers made off the dribble and an 11 assist game vs. Maccabi Haifa. And it’s not encouraging that he landed with one of the worst coaches surrounded by chuckers in the backcourt, which is a terrible scenario for his development. This is not enough to cast aside his excellent skill level and vision, but my optimism is tempered.

On the other hand, Johnson quelled concerns about rim finishing concerns when he converted an awesome 25/40 inside the arc in summer league. He also showed an improved handle, as he was able to slash through the defense to create layups for himself on multiple occasions while still posting more assists (10) than TOVs (9). His pre-season 2P% was mildly disappointing at 42% (28/67), and he still looks a bit clumsy with the ball so minor concerns linger. But he finished rim attempts efficiently, and only struggled to make short-mid range 2’s as he converted just 11/41 of 2PA that were 5+ feet from the rim according to ESPN shot charts. He excelled at these shots in college and pre-season, so this is likely attributable to bad variance.

Johnson is so solidly good across the board at such a young age that it’s hard to envision him amounting to not much. He doesn’t specialize in any one skill, but being average or better across the board can sum up to a valuable player to give him sneaky upside. After resisting all NCAA season, I’m finally ready to hop on board with the Stanimal. He’s the most likely non-Towns prospect to become an above average player.

5. Mario Hezonja (Final Big: 11th, Drafted: 5th)

I wasn’t high on Hezonja entering the draft, but that’s mostly because I was too lazy to scout him and chalked him up as a mystery box. There’s a lot to like here:

-He’s the most explosive player in the draft class
-He has good size at 6’8″
-He is a good 3 point shooter and bombs away with decent volume.
-He is a willing passer
-He has good shot selection and better feel for the game than you’d expect

The only holes in his game is that his handle is somewhat limited and he is bizarrely turnover prone. But I don’t see any clear reason why his turnovers won’t be cut, and his handle is good enough to do this.

To the masses he has become a caricature of overconfidence, as his swagger has overshadowed his play. So while he has solidified himself as a source of entertainment, nobody seems to be predicting greatness. It’s hard to read his quotes and expect a good team player. But in summer league 31 of his 66 FGA have come from 3, and he converted 51% (18/35) of his 2PA. His shot selection seems generally good, and this is supported by his ACB and Euro stats. He hasn’t been perfect, as he did drain the shot clock to skip the 2 for 1 and take a long 2 off the dribble. But overall there were many more good attempts than awful ones.

It cannot be taken for granted that team player Mario will continue to show up over the course of his NBA career. It’s possible that once he is on track to greatness, his stubbornness causes him to regress to poor habits. But if he stays on track, he can be anywhere from an efficient 3 + D piece to a full fledged star. His personality risks are well worth bearing given his upside. There’s an argument that he belongs even higher, and he could easily close the season as the #2 rookie in the class.

6. Willie Cauley-Stein (Final Big: 6th, Drafted: 6th)

With all of the negative pre-draft reports and him landing on one of the most incompetent NBA franchises, there is a natural aversion to WCS loving. But this is the same league where Clint Capela inexplicably slid to 26th overall in 2014, and the Kings may have made a decent pick in spite of being themselves.

WCS quietly had a good pre-season and SL, and possibly earned himself a starting role. Offensively he is limited but he is a solid garbageman who avoids mistakes as he posted a microscopic 0.85 TOVs per 36 in 253 SL + PS minutes. Defensively he isn’t perfect, but he has good instincts poking away passes and his size, athleticism, and superhuman quickness gives him upside.

It’s hard to envision him not becoming a useful NBA player, and a Tyson Chandler-ish upside isn’t bad.

7. Kelly Oubre (Final Big: 8th, Drafted: 15th)

Oubre struggled to make 3’s shooting 8/32 in SL and 1/14 pre-season, but I suspect this is largely poor variance since there weren’t questions about his shot entering the draft. More importantly, he showed a better than expected slashing ability (especially in summer league), which is exciting for a player with his awesome tools. He also posted a monster free throw rate, continued to rack up huge steal totals with his excellent length and quickness, and kept his turnover total reasonably low.

He still needs to improve his passing ability, as his assist rate did not improve from his disappointing NCAA rate. And he needs to prove that he has the feel for the game to score and defend at the NBA level. These deficiencies are why he slid to 15th overall, and they could preclude him from becoming a good NBA’er. But his tools and overall statistical production are both good enough such that they could easily trump his flaws in the long run.

Wings with Oubre’s tools who can do a little bit of everything don’t come around often, and he was a great gamble for Washington at 15th overall.

8. Jahlil Okafor (Final Big: 4th, Drafted: 3rd)

Okafor was awful in both summer league and pre-season. His value is largely entirely tied into his ability to finish at the rim with his excellent length and touch, but in the pre-season he struggled to create attempts and has instead settled for mid-range shots. Consequently he shot 38.6 FG% (22/57) and drew a mere 9 FTA. He also had a terrible 4 assists vs 18 turnovers, as he did not display passing ability to offset his plummet in scoring efficiency.

Some blame can be placed on Philly’s poor guard play and spacing, and he still can become an efficient offensive weapon if he finds a way to get a higher volume shots at the rim. But thus far he has been a black hole of extreme inefficiency, and efficient scoring was his only real strength entering the draft. This is especially scary considering his poor shooting and lackluster defense, as his offense needs to translate to the NBA exceptionally well for him to have any compelling upside scenario.

I felt I gave Okafor the benefit of the doubt by ranking him 4th in the class, and now that all of his translation flags are glaring it is hard to feel optimistic. How excited would you be if your favorite team drafted a one trick pony who may not be able to translate his one trick to the NBA level?

9. Emmanuel Mudiay (Final Big: 5th, Drafted: 7th)

A number of intelligent people think highly of Mudiay, as he has great tools and legitimate PG skills. But he still has a long road to go to become a good NBA player, and it starts with his shooting. Combining SL, PS, China, and high school all-star games he has shot 28% (22/79) from 3 and 58% (55/95) FT. It’s hard to project his shot confidently from a mish mash of small samples, but it looks bad.

There’s a short list of PG’s since 2000 who have been successful with a FT% < 70%: it’s mostly a bunch of Rondo seasons and a smattering of young Baron Davis and Tony Parker before they graduated to consistent 70%+ shooting. This is for good reason– a point guard that runs frequent pick and rolls is inevitably going to pull up for jumpers and floaters, and an inability to convert will tank his efficiency. Even Rondo was a respectable 40% career shooter from 16-23 feet. If Mudiay doesn’t learn to shoot, the rest of his game needs to be pristine to become a good starting PG

In PS + SL, Mudiay’s rebounds, steals, and blocks totals were all decent but unspectacular. He was given a large role offensively and permitted to take his lumps, and lumpy it was. He barely posted more assists (50) than TOVs (44) and his scoring was hyper-inefficient. There is clear room for improvement as he trims the fat, but there sure is lots of fat to trim. While he has potential on defense, he doesn’t have the best fundamentals and it’s unlikely that he becomes lockdown while shouldering such a big offensive load. And even though he’s athletic, he’s not on Westbrook, Wall, or Rose’s level of explosiveness. Perhaps his handle, passing, vision, and tools are enough to muster a respectable career as a non-shooting PG, but I don’t see how he is amazing enough to buck historical trends and become anything near a star without learning to shoot.

He is young enough to have a chance of developing into a respectable shooter, and this is largely where all of his upside lies. But he will almost certainly never become an above average shooter. Even if progression slightly below average shooting is guaranteed, he still has a long way to go to develop the rest of his game into a star. I see his upside as John Wall-ish, and a number of things need to go right for this to be achieved. It’s a good upside, but it’s not great and it’s dragged down by a boatload of bust equity.

Stretch 5’s
10. Bobby Portis (Final Big: 14th, Drafted: 22nd)

Portis is in a different vein from Porzingis and Turner, as he is slightly undersized for a center and not explosive enough to be a prolific shot blocker. But his mobility, high basketball IQ, and non-stop motor make him ideal for a defense that switches heavily. Given questions regarding Porzingis’s instincts and rebounding and Turner’s ability to defend the pick and roll, it wouldn’t be shocking if Portis ended up as the best defensive player of the trio.

It was a stretch to call Portis a stretch big entering the draft, with just 8% of his college FGA coming behind the arc. But playing for 3 point happy Fred Hoiberg, Portis increased his 3PA rate to 15% in his combined PS + SL sample in spite of the greater distance. It is too soon to tell how reliably he will make these, but merely attempting them is a good sign.

His biggest flaw remains his lack of explosiveness. Consequently he struggles to finish in traffic, and his 43% preseason 2P% is not inspiring. But he gets most of his shots in the flow of the offense, which keeps his turnover rate low. He also posted monster rebound numbers, and overall he had a reasonably efficient pre-season on above average usage.

Halfway through his freshman season, I wrote about the curious lack of draft hype for Portis. Some level of skepticism made sense, as his lack of burst is a genuine damper on his upside. But he is also overlooked due to lacking sex appeal in his game (i.e. a turnaround jumpshot) that he doesn’t need to be effective. His edge lies in size, mobility, effort, smarts, rebounding, shotmaking ability, and fitting in well with the team concept. It is not certain that this will sum to much, but it looks like it will amount to something. And based on pre-season something could be more than most are expecting.

11. Kristaps Porzingis (Final Big: 12th, Drafted: 4th)
12. Myles Turner (Final Big: 20th, Drafted: 11th)

Has anybody noticed that Porzingis and Turner are nearly the exact same thing? Both are awkward bigs who offer shot blocking, shooting (including turnarounds!), and not much else.

Porzingis’s hype train is comical. Knick fans are so starved for any ray of hope that every minutely positive Staps play gets blown out of proportion as if he just cured cancer. There are things to like– he is a giant with decent mobility, and is comfortable operating behind the arc with 22% of his PS + SL FGA coming from 3. He also posted more cumulative assists (13) than turnovers (11) in spite of being flagged for a poor ratio in Europe, so his feel for the game may not be that bad after all.

The downside is that he is not Dirk. Not even close. As expected for a 7’2″ player, he is neither fluid nor coordinated. This doesn’t mean he will be bad on offense, as he spaces the floor and his quickness comes in handy when he gets a clear lane against a mismatch. And if he continues to move the ball and limit turnovers, that’s a nice offensive piece for a rim protecting giant. But his value could be diminished if the Knicks expect him to create regularly. He doesn’t have the fluidity or burst to regularly attack off the dribble with efficiency and his shot isn’t good enough to score efficiently on regular mid-range attempts.

Defensively is where Staps has the most potential, as his size and length enables him to protect the rim, and his mobility enables him to defend the pick and roll and hold his own on switches. But he is nevertheless difficult to project on this end as his lackluster instincts may prevent him from becoming a great defensive piece. Also his poor rebounding detracts from his strengths on this end and puts pressure on the PF to pick up his slack on the glass.

Staps has an interesting blend of forces working in his favor opposed by flaws working against him. In the best case he becomes a quality 3 + D center who can also exploit offensive mismatches, and in the worst case he becomes a black hole on offense who never becomes a positive defensively in spite of his physical advantages. He definitely has some compelling upside, but his upside is vastly overstated by ESPN/NYC and he has clear bust risk. Also he is the type of player who could get a big boost from coaching, so it is unfortunate that he was drafted to the Knicks.

Turner lacks confidence in his NBA 3 pointer, as just 7 of his 76 SL + PS FGA came beyond the arc. Larry Bird said that Turner might be the best shooter on the team, and this is supported by his 84% college FT’s. But his 27.4 NCAA 3P% along with his scarce 3PA rate in the NBA bodes ill for the current state of his shooting range. He has a nice turnaround mid-range jumper, but he loves it so much he may as well marry it. 28 of his 37 pre-season FGA came on non-rim 2PA, and 22 came on 2PA that were 11+ feet from the hoop. In a related story, he posted a putrid 43.3% TS. This figure suffers from poor shooting variance, but it is nevertheless challenging to score efficiently with such an extreme rate of mid-range attempts. Extending his range beyond the arc and displacing a portion of mid-range attempts with 3 pointers would do a world of good for Turner’s value.

The upside is that Turner rebounds reasonably well and he blocks shots at an insane rate. There are questions about his ability to defend the pick and roll given his poor lateral quickness, and he isn’t fit for a defense that heavily switches. But Frank Vogel has already built an elite defense with an immobile big swatting away shots at the rim, so Indiana is a great landing spot for Turner to thrive on D.

Which 2015 Prospects Get To The Rim The Most

17 Friday Apr 2015

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After my 2014 iteration appears to have shown some level of predictive power at the tails, it is worth examining which guards and wings have created their own shot at the rim the best. Using hoop-math.com’s splits, I take unassisted rim FG in the half-court minus putbacks to approximate who had the most frequent success of slashing through a set defense and finishing. This could also include post-ups and the splits are at the whim of NCAA play by play keepers, so this should not be treated as gospel. But it is an interesting perspective that can illuminate why an otherwise weak prospect like Jordan Clarkson might have value to NBA teams. I am splitting up the sample into point guards and wings since I found last season that point guards tend to get to the rim more often since they have greater ball handling responsibility.

Point Guards:

Player UA Rim FG Minutes UARF/40
Olivier Hanlan 47 1204 1.56
Delon Wright 43 1165 1.48
Kris Dunn 39 1123 1.39
Yogi Ferrell 40 1186 1.35
Cam Payne Fresh 37 1111 1.33
Jerian Grant 45 1408 1.28
Tyrone Wallace 30 1152 1.04
D’Angelo Russell 25 1188 0.84
Briante Weber 11 529 0.83
Cam Payne Soph 23 1127 0.82
TJ McConnell 23 1158 0.79
Terry Rozier 22 1260 0.70
Tyus Jones 23 1322 0.70
Andrew Harrison 15 994 0.60
Shannon Scott 11 1068 0.41

Olivier Hanlan leads the pack, and this might be a hint that he is worth a mid-late 2nd round flier.

Delon Wright is the real winner of this analysis in my mind. Not that his grade is exceptional, but I perceived him as a player who would struggle to create against superior defenses since he is neither a high usage scorer nor is he a great athlete. But this suggests he has more slither than I had credited him for in my mind, and with his length, sharp instincts, and stellar NCAA production he may be the hidden gem of the draft.

Kris Dunn and Jerian Grant are right around where I expected them to be. If anything I am slightly disappointed that neither showed much more slashing potential than expected.

I showed Cameron Payne’s freshman and sophomore split to display how wonky a single season sample can be. Payne actually showed large upticks in his two point volume and efficiency from freshman to sophomore season, yet fell off a cliff with respect to this specific split. Perhaps the Murray State play by play keeper became much more stingier with the definition of a rim attempt, as Murray State went from 42% rim, 22.6% mid-range splits to 34.9% rim, 31.4% mid-range splits with almost entirely the same roster. Payne does throw up a bunch of short range floaters so it would stand to reason that he would have a number of FG’s on the border between rim and non-rim attempts. Either way this is a bit of a red flag, he is a sophomore playing in the Ohio Valley Conference and probably will not be a lock down defensive player in the pros. And even if he gets to the rim in the NBA, he may not have the size or athleticism to consistently finish. This is a friendly reminder to not get too carried away with the mid-major sweetheart as draft sleeper.

D’Angelo Russell’s split is a big disappointment, and the only major red flag in his draft profile. He is only a freshman, and he does appear to have the handle and shake to become a decent slasher in the NBA. But perhaps this is a sign that his lack of burst outweighs his shifty ways, and that he will struggle to create rim attempts the same way that James Harden does. Harden overcomes his lack of burst with an elite euro-step, and if Russell is only decent at stepping through the defense he may be a big disappointment. Perhaps this stat is a fluke, or maybe Russell overcomes it as he adds bulk and continues to polish his skill set. He still does have a stellar skill package and this is not necessarily reason to disregard that. But it explains his shaky splits vs. good competition and it prevents him from being a guaranteed stud like Karl Towns and Justise Winslow.

Tyus Jones also has a disappointing split. He is a freshman projected to go in the mid-late 1st round, so this is not quite cause to firesale his draft equity. But it is worth pondering what his edge will be over the other talented PG’s in the NBA as a small jump shooting PG.

Terry Rozier’s splits show why I do not perceive him to be much of a prospect. He is 6’2″, just turned 21, and is below average at slashing, passing, and shooting. At best he is a late 2nd round pick.

Andrew Harrison is not an NBA caliber basketball player. Not much new to see here. He would be a waste of a draft pick.

Wings:

Player UA Rim FG Minutes UARF/40
Norman Powell 55 1244 1.77
Dez Wells 31 853 1.45
Sam Dekker 44 1239 1.42
Rashad Vaughn 22 742 1.19
Tyler Harvey 33 1182 1.12
Wesley Saunders 28 1032 1.09
Justise Winslow 30 1135 1.06
Justin Anderson 17 724 0.94
Buddy Hield 22 1135 0.78
Michael Qualls 21 1086 0.77
Caris LeVert 12 645 0.74
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 19 1090 0.70
Anthony Brown 23 1320 0.70
Josh Richardson 19 1162 0.65
RJ Hunter 21 1294 0.65
Jarell Martin 17 1159 0.59
Stanley Johnson 13 1081 0.48
Aaron Harrison 12 1004 0.48
Kelly Oubre 7 756 0.37
JP Tokoto 8 1106 0.29
Devin Booker 4 816 0.20

Norman Powell and Dez Wells stand out as possible round 2 sleepers as both are toolsy wings who may be solid roleplayers with some 3 point shooting upticks. Powell is especially intriguing as he is a great athlete who measured to have a monster 6’11” wingspan 5 years ago.

I called Sam Dekker a boring prospect, but this is one area where he stands out. He has the athleticism and handle to get to the rim, and the size to finish over anybody. I am warming up to him after seeing him beat Willie Cauley-Stein off the dribble and finish over him, which is something that happens approximately never.

Rashad Vaughn continues to strengthen my belief that he is an underrated one and done due to playing for arguably the worst NCAA coach in Dave Rice. He can probably get buckets at the NBA level, and it’s only a matter of gambling on his BBIQ and feel developing into a complete player. The latter is not likely to come to fruition, but in the late 1st it is worth a shot.

Justise Winslow grades out extremely well for a freshman SF who was alleged to lack creation skills. His explosiveness paired with a nice euro-step gives him sneaky upside as a slasher, especially if he continues to polish his handle and finishing ability. His draft profile is completely loaded with green flags, and he is at worst my #2 prospect in the draft behind Karl Towns.

Stanley Johnson does not assuage my creation concerns for him with his score, as some of his buckets could even be from post-ups. But Kelly Oubre ranks even worse, which throws cold water on my affinity for him as a sleeper, even though I knew that he does not have much shake in his game.

Devin Booker did not get much ball handling responsibility sharing the floor with the Harrisons and Tyler Ulis, but this is a red flag nevertheless. He has solid 2p% statistics but it is not because of his ability to create for himself. Without athleticism, length, defense, rebounding, or creation I simply do not see how he is worth a look in the lottery.

Serving Justice to Justise: Should Winslow Go #1?

06 Monday Apr 2015

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In spite of Justise Winslow having an insane tournament run where he has consistently been the best player on the floor while looking like a cyborg amongst boys, it has not been a common reaction to discuss him as the #1 pick. He has elevated himself from a mid-late lottery pick to #6 ESPN and #5 DX, but has yet to gain any traction as a possible top 2 pick. This is likely because he was only the #13 RSCI player, and the top two candidate for #1 have been performing as advertised all season. It feels overreactive to suddenly elevate Winslow above them based on a few strong tournament games. This is normally an acceptable line of thought to prevent draft assessments from going off the rails, but Justise is special and deserves special consideration.

First it must be addressed why he was only the #13 RSCI recruit. DraftExpress’s pre-season video lists his weaknesses as perimeter shooting, offensive creation, and limited upside. Perimeter shooting lingers as a question mark, as Winslow has only shot 96/149 (64.4%) on FT and 23/89 (25.8%) on non-rim 2PA. But this is mitigated by his 45/108 (41.7%) 3 point shooting. While it is not a given that he will be an adequate 3 point shooter in the NBA, his odds are strong enough such that this is not a glaring red flag.

Offensive creation is an area where Winslow has clearly exceeded expectations. His ball handling still needs polish, but this has not stopped him from creating his own shot at the rim in the half-court. He combines his great first step with surprisingly smooth footwork to be one of the most productive wings at creating his own shot at the rim in the half-court in the draft. Using hoop-math.com’s splits, he has 30 unassisted rim FG (not including putbacks). Looking at last year’s class, his per minute rate exceeds that of most NCAA prospects in the draft, including all of the top 6 picks. The players who graded exceptionally well such as Jordan Clarkson, TJ Warren, and Elfrid Payton all appear to be good draft values, so I believe this is a relevant split to examine. Winslow’s freshman rate is comfortably behind the three of them, but they were all upperclassmen and it would not be surprising to see Winslow get to the rim with extreme frequency if he were to return as a sophomore. He clearly has significant upside as a slasher, especially if he can continue to improve his handle at a brisk rate.

The limited upside criticism has always felt overplayed to me to see for a player as young, toolsy, and skilled as Winslow, but I will nevertheless entertain the logic. He does not have great height/length for a SF (measured 6’6″ with a 6’10” wingspan at the Hoop Summit) and he was advertised as a good but not elite athlete. With a limited offensive skill set, it is understandable why he may have been seen as a 1 way defensive player. That said it is safe to dismiss the limited upside criticism with the promise he has shown as a slasher as well as his athleticism being better than advertised. He grades well athletically by every statistical measure from rebounds, steals, and blocks to rim creation and rim finishing splits. His athleticism also stands out by watching him play, especially with his monster transition defense.

I suspect that another factor plaguing Winslow’s upside perception is that there simply isn’t a superstar small forward that we can comfortably compare him to other than Kawhi Leonard who is much longer and a special snowflake that is generally an ill advised comp to make. On the other end, Chad Ford has been pitching Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as a Winslow comparison which is an extremely pessimistic projection for two reasons.

1) MKG had good tools, but explosive athleticism was not one of them. Elite strength with average burst is a common mold for disappointing translation from NCAA to NBA.
2) MKG’s NCAA statistics imply some hope for capable NBA 3 point shooting, but he has only shot 3/18 beyond the arc in his first 3 seasons. If Winslow is a complete non-threat from 3 then yes he will be disappointing, but this is the rock bottom end of his range.

As a cherry on top, VJL’s EWP formula ranks Winslow (8.7) ahead of MKG (7.0) entering the final 4. Winslow should be a better NBA player than MKG the overwhelming majority of the time. There remains a lack of a suitable upside comparison as one does not exist, so instead of forcing one it is better to evaluate Winslow on his own merits:

-His overall NCAA statistics are excellent. As a freshman he is filling every predictive part of the stat sheet other than FT% and mid-range shooting.
-His second half splits are staggering as he battled minor injuries earlier in the season and also has clearly improved his game as the season has progressed.
-Most of his monster games have come against the meat of the ACC schedule and tough matchups in the NCAA tournament.
-His athleticism, strength, and quickness are all big +’s. Height and length are not great, but they are not weaknesses if he has grown a half an inch or more since the Hoop Summit.
-He offers an elite defensive IQ and versatility. This is supported by Duke having the #12 kenpom defense while featuring offensive minded players as his primary support in Quinn Cook, Jahlil Okafor, and Tyus Jones.
-His individual dominance has correlated with team success as Duke has been smashing its competition during his 2nd half hot streak.

In short, Winslow’s statistics put him within arm’s length of the #1 spot when taken at face value. Every possible reason to value his statistics differently suggests that stats underrate him when taken at face value– physical tools, defensive reputation, second half splits, splits vs. top competition, team success, and rim creation splits/skills all grade favorably for him. The only possible hole in his game is perimeter shooting, but he nevertheless has a sizable slice of equity to become an average or better NBA shooter. Winslow glows with awesomeness from every angle and his draft stock should be valued tremendously high. He is a prototypical high floor, high ceiling two way wing prospect who is deserves consideration for the #1 overall selection.

Justise does not necessarily belong ahead of Karl Towns, as high floor, high ceiling two way center prospects are good too, and it is genuinely close between the two. The more important point is that Winslow’s perception needs to be updated from a solid consolation prize in the 4-7 range to a legitimate stud who is one of the top top prizes in this year’s draft and a favorite to become an all-star at some point in his NBA career. He really is that good, and it is time to treat him as such.

Justise Winslow Has Been Breaking NCAA Basketball

29 Sunday Mar 2015

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Justise Winslow has been gaining draft hype with an exceptionally strong NCAA performance, and I’m here to dump gasoline on the fire.

After losing at Notre Dame mid-way through the season, Duke looked like a slight disappointment with a 4-3 ACC record and a #8 kenpom rank after being rated top 5 preseason by every person and computer in the universe. But they followed up the Notre Dame loss with a win at then undefeated and 2nd ranked Virginia, the beginning of a vicious hot streak. Starting with the Virginia win, they have gone 16-1 with a 12-5 record against the gambling spread en route to a Final Four berth. If this hot streak were to be attributed a single reason, it would be that Justise Winslow has morphed into a superstar and put the team on his back. Here are his per 40 minute scoring splits with the first 20 games on the first line, and the latest 17 on the bottom line:

PTS 2PA 2P% 3PA 3P% FTA FT%
15.7 7.5 46.5% 5 37.3% 5.6 57.9%
18.7 9.8 55.7% 3.1 48.8% 4.7 69.4%

There is likely a variance involved in these splits, as it is unlikely that he suddenly became a much better shooter midway through the season. But he has upticked nevertheless, and his increase in both 2 pointer volume and with a huge spike in conversion is especially promising. Again there is variance involved as his early mid-range splits were horrific, but the fact that he has been able to increase his attempts against tougher defenses with such a big spike in 2P% suggests massive progression throughout the season. Now let’s look at his per 40 splits for other box score stats:

ORB DRB AST STL BLK TOV
1.4 5.2 2.7 1.3 0.9 2.4
2.2 8.7 3.2 2.4 1.4 2.6

Every stat is trending up, often by massive margins. It is common for freshmen to improve as the season progresses, but they normally do not see such massive statistical upswings because 1) competition tends to get tougher in the second half and 2) it is not normal to progress this much. For comparison, here are the splits for his freshman cohorts:

Jahlil Okafor:

PTS 2PA 2P% FTA FT%
24.6 15.2 66.2% 7.9 56.2%
21.2 14 67.5% 5.4 41.5%
ORB DRB AST STL BLK TOV
5.3 7.1 2.0 1.0 2.0 3.3
4.0 6.4 1.6 1.0 1.8 3.4

Tyus Jones:

PTS 2PA 2P% 3PA 3P% FTA FT%
14.4 5.0 47.4% 4.0 36.7% 5.9 88.9%
13.3 6.8 41.3% 3.6 37.9% 3.9 88.7%
ORB DRB AST STL BLK TOV
0.9 3.4 6.5 1.8 0.1 2.2
0.4 3.8 7.1 1.8 0.1 2.5

Both players tended to hold steady or slightly downtick with fewer weak opponents to feast upon. There is no obvious progression for either, which highlights how awesome Justise’s leap has been. It also suggests that the uptick in team success is largely due to his growth into a star.

It may seem overreactive to throw him into the top 3 discussion based on three great tournament games, but really this is an extension of a trend that has been ongoing for half a season now. Not only have his statistics been trending off the charts, but he looks like a beast while accruing them. The plays he makes on both ends in transition, on the glass, and in attacking the rim are plays that no NCAA player other than Kelly Oubre on a good day is physically capable of making. His physical profile is stellar with solid height (6’7″) and length (6’10”) and exceptional strength and athleticism, and if he continues to improve his ball handling and shot making there is not much impeding his upside.

At this point Winslow is at worst the 4th best prospect in the draft, and it would be nothing short of lunacy to take Emmanuel Mudiay ahead of him. Winslow’s physical tools are just as good as Mudiay’s, except he has dominated top end NCAA competition whereas Mudiay has played well in a league where 38 year old Stephon Marbury reigns supreme. It is highly unlikely that Mudiay would be notably better at the NCAA level, but possible that he would be drastically worse, so it is correct to value Winslow above him.

Winslow is still no threat to Towns at the #1 slot, but it is perfectly reasonable to take him at #2 or #3 overall. It may seem like insanity to value the 22 PER player over his 31 PER teammate who was the #1 RSCI prospect and has been the consensus #1 pick all season, but Winslow’s skill set is far more valuable at the NBA level. Jahlil Okafor is a stud low post scorer, but it comes at the expense of the neither 3 nor D stigma. This makes him difficult to build around since there are few stretch 4’s who are good enough to atone for Okafor’s rim protection shortcomings and pairing him with a rim protecting 5 prevents him from having optimal spacing to operate in the paint with maximum efficiency. I can see him becoming a more efficient version of Zach Randolph, which is certainly a valuable NBA player which is why I maintain him as a top 4 pick. But Zach Randolph was not considered good until paired with Marc Gasol who 1) is a good defensive center and 2) can make long 2’s and is a great passer from the high post. Even if he hits his upside, Okafor still needs to be paired with a fellow big with a unique blend of strengths to play a big role on a contender. Also his FT% looms as a major wart, as it bodes ill for his ability to operate outside the paint offensively.  If nothing else hurts his overall efficiency which is his principal selling point as a prospect.

In short, Okafor’s hype is based largely on scouts overrating the value of low post scoring, especially when it comes with neither rim protection nor outside shooting. While he has been as good as advertised, that is not good enough to be a top 3 pick in this class when he is such an awkward fit in the modern NBA.

This explains why the gap between Okafor (9.6) and Winslow (7.3) according to Layne Vashro’s EWP model was surprisingly slim entering the NCAA tournament. That gap should narrow given that Winslow has outshined Okafor thus far in the tourney. Further, if any player is underrated by EWP it is Winslow since he is far more athletic and has a significantly stronger split over the second half of the season. So according to math and logic and such, Okafor is at best is a narrowly superior prospect to Winslow. My gut feeling is that Winslow is a more valuable prospect that will become a more valuable pro. He is the player that I tune in to watch, he is the player with the killer physical profile, and he is the player that I would dream of building an NBA team around if he hits his upside.

I am unsure whether I take Winslow over Russell. I currently lean gently in the direction of D’Angelo, but Justise still has a game or two to change my mind. But more importantly, while watching the Final Four everybody should ask themselves: would you really be upset if you rooted for a team that picked Winslow over Okafor?

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Scouting The Hoop Summit: Can Mudiay Go #1?

30 Monday Jun 2014

Posted by in NCAA

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After writing my way too early 2015 preview, I received some commentary on my exclusion of Emmanuel Mudiay. I didn’t realize that he was being hyped as the 2nd most likely #1 overall pick, but Chad Ford says his Hoop Summit performance has him in the equation breathing down Okafor’s neck. Fortunately the Hoop Summit can be watched on youtube, so I decided to pick apart his performance and assess the extent to which I agree with the hype.

Offense
Mudiay played for the World Team and was given the keys to the offense as their only player cut out for heavy ball handling duties. It was clear that his objective was to push tempo in transition, where he is at his best. Also USA Team did quite a bit of pressing and trapping which opened up lanes for Mudiay to attack when the World Team beat the press. He didn’t do much attacking of a set defense, so this was the optimal type of game for him to thrive. Note that this is not completely unabridged, based on box score I’m missing a couple of missed 3’s and maybe a turnove. Then again maybe the box score is wrong.

Passing
3:32 Beats Johnson off the dribble and kicks it out to create an open 3 which is missed.
7:08 Attacks in transition, gets cut off by Oubre, passes to Inglis
7:50 Rises up for shot, changes mind at last second and throws ball away for turnover
22:35 Gets dual pressure from Johnson + Oubre in backcourt, almost turns it over, eventually world team gets called for 8 seconds.
24:47 In transition interior pass gets tipped away by Tyus Jones for turnover
27:50 Attacks on PnR, Oubre pokes away pass for turnover
34:05 World team beats press, Mudiay attacks and makes good decision to pass to Birsen for easy layup.
39:07 Beats press, kicks it out for missed open 3 attempt
39:48 Inbounds to Brandone Francis who makes long 2.
1:22:12 Threads the needle to Towns on the pick and roll, but the bounce pass is knee level and Towns can’t catch it.
1:24:42 Nicely passes the ball off to Lyles in transition who gets rejected by Oubre
1:27:54 Passes to a cutting Lyles who lays it in

Transition Scoring
3:55 Misses transition layup
10:54 Attacks in transition, gets cut off by Oubre on perimeter
23:22 Dunks on transition breakaway
31:03 Attacks and draws FT’s in transition
33:09 After world team beats press, Mudiay catches ball with open lane and explodes to hoop for made layup.
51:29 Beats Johnson in transition for made layup
54:06 Gets to hoop in transition, gets blocked from behind by Cliff Alexander
1:20:38 Rips strong rebound, pushes the ball in transition, dishes the ball to Murray, gets it back and misses layup.
1:22:54 Makes layup in transition
1:28:25 Draws FT’s in transition

Halfcourt Creation
19:39 Spots up for open jumper, blows by overly aggressive Pinson closeout and converts finger roll.
20:45 Two US defenders converge on Birsen who swings to Mudiay. Mudiay attacks open lane to hoop and misses layup.
52:38 Tries to attack Oubre off the dribble, can’t get all the way to the rim, kicks it out to perimeter
55:59 Blows by Alexander after shot fake, misses layup
1:17:25 Blows by Travis, misses layup
1:17:51 Gets crafty inbounding to himself off of Turner’s behind, almost turns it over when Winslow is ready for him at rim.
1:25:29 Jukes Johnson, blows to the rim and finishes +1
1:27:15 Gets matched up vs Okafor on the switch, can’t blow by. Gives ball up, gets it back, still can’t get past Okafor and badly bricks floater.

Jumpshooting
6:25 Hits mid-range shot off the dribble
35:28 Badly bricks transition 3 attempt
41:00 Makes pull up 3 pointer
44:24 Misses pull up jumper with shot clock winding down

Defense
The World played quite a bit of zone and I couldn’t find much foot of Mudiay’s man to man mettle. His length caused problems as he finished with 3 steals. Note that I couldn’t find the timestamp for one of his steals where he deflected a Stanley Johnson inbounds pass and then saved it to his teammate, and it was his most impressive steal. The occasions a USA player ventured into his zone defensively he was somewhat lazy, which is partially understandable given his big role on offense.

5:09 Lazy swipe in transition
6:09 Lazy help
9:01 In zone, makes little effort to cut off Johnson drive
20:00 Doubles myles turner, comes up with steal when turner attacks and loses the ball
24:52 Plays matador defense as he lazily swipes vs Oubre in transition
57:28 Uses length to pick off Tyus Jones’s pass in transition, draws foul going back the other way
1:27:05 Just watches as Jones attacks his area of zone and banks in floater

This may be kind of a mess for anybody who wants to re-watch, but at least it organizes the things that he did in the game for my synopsis.

Strengths:
-Great size for PG. 6’5″ 200 lbs 6’8.5″ wingspan
-Strong athletic package: quicks, speed, and explosiveness all present
-Good ball handler
-Solid court vision
-Didn’t make any appalling decisions. Passed the ball when he was unable to get his shot off. Does not appear to have Andrew Harrison-ish blinders. Only blocked once from behind, was a great athletic play by Alexander and not a bad decision from Mudiay.
-Showed ability to be disruptive defensively with steals. Hard to accurately assess his instincts w/o bigger sample, however.
-Beast in the open court. He pushed pace diligently and attacked every time he had an opening.

Weaknesses
-Sloppy with the ball. Threw away a number of passes
-Missed 5 clean looks at the rim. Can he finish in the half-court?
-Overall shot poorly at All-Star games. Between McDonald’s, Hoop Summit, Jordan Brand tallied 1/11 3’s 7/16 FT’s. DX says he shot 6/41 from 3 in EYBL. Is his shot broken?
-Somewhat lazy on defense. Will he capitalize on his tools on this end?
-Appears to be a work in progress in the half-court. This is where he needs to develop to successfully translate to tougher competition.
-Doesn’t have either an outlier tool or an outlier skill. What makes him a special snowflake?

Conclusion
Overall, there’s a lot to like and not much to hate, but what is there to truly love about Mudiay? First let’s start with his physical tools. They are definitely good, as he is a clear positive across the board. His body is similar to that of John Wall, who measured 6’4″ 196 lbs with a 6’9.25″ wingspan at the combine, only Mudiay was 1.5 years younger when he was measured. But I watched their high school mixtapes on youtube to compare their athleticism, and Mudiay is nowhere near as explosive as John Wall. Granted, he’s clearly a very good athlete and Wall is the gold standard for physical tools for a PG. But if we are talking about #1 overall for a PG with a pedestrian skill package, it’s hard to get too excited if he’s not going to be among the creme de la creme of athletes at his position.

The good news for his skill package is that nothing seems necessarily fatal. To me having blinders (this needs to become a scouting word, it is so descriptive of a common + important flaw) is the worst weakness a prospect can have. It was the reason why scouts so quickly soured on Andrew Harrison, he is awful at making crisp decisions. Once he puts the ball on the floor, he does often not changing his mind and frequently gets stuffed at the rim or turns it over. I was impressed with Mudiay’s ability to pass the ball when he didn’t have a clean look at the rim. Mudiay is also more athletic than Harrison, and with these two tidbits in mind I just don’t see Mudiay plummeting quite as hard as Harrison did.

But there are nevertheless reasons to be concerned. His shot might be broken, his passes were often off target, and he bricked 5 easily makeable layups. It seems that his fine motor skills are not good at delivering the ball where he intends it, and this is something that needs to improve. But if a player is going to be turnover prone, I’d rather it be due to sloppiness than blinders as the former is more fixable.

Also he didn’t seem to take a world of pride in his defense, which is never a good sign for a prospect you are banking on to become good defensively. I’d say he’s a major mystery box on this end. Even DX doesn’t take a stance on his defense in their scouting report, only noting that he has excellent potential without commenting either way on where he is now.

Overall it’s hard to know what to expect. I don’t believe he has as much risk of sliding the same way that Marquis Teague or Andrew Harrison did, as his tools are so universally strong across the board and his instincts appear competent enough such that I can’t envision giving up hope on him so early. I’d say even if he disappoints he has a strong chance of remaining in the lottery. But the reason why I didn’t list him in my top 5 most intriguing prospects is confirmed by his Hoop Summit performance: I don’t see the extreme level of upside that makes him worth the #1 pick at the deepest position in the NBA. Sure, he can become a top 5 NBA PG if he develops well enough, but what’s his ticket to the top 2? He doesn’t have crazy explosiveness, he doesn’t have any super skills or feel, he’s just a toolsy guy who does PG things well enough to be an appealing prospect. I don’t get the same sense of boundless upside that I got from watching Dante Exum’s signature performance vs. Spain.

I feel that after his freshman season, best case he looks like a toolsier Elfrid Payton. That is good, since Payton went 10th in a deeper draft and I liked the pick. In a thinner draft, that puts Mudiay in the conversation for #1 if neither Towns nor Okafor shines. Even if he doesn’t hit his upside he has a strong chance of ending up in the top 5 of my final big board. I suspect I’ll like him alright enough, but without a clear scenario where I truly love him as a prospect I’m marginally more excited for a handful of other freshmen. Best guess is that he ends up somewhere in the 3-10 range on my final big board, although he probably has a better shot of actually getting picked #1 than he does of ranking #1 according to me.

One last note– I don’t think it’s great that he is going to play for Larry Brown. Larry Brown to me is a dinosaur, in that he was probably awesome like 65 million years ago but is obsolete these days and may as well be extinct. His hatred of 3 point shots goes to show how stubbornly unsharp he is (check SMU 3PA’s vs 3PA allowed). He was a great hire for SMU since he quickly attracted enough talent to revitalize the program, and most college basketball coaches aren’t sharp minds anyway. But let’s not act like he’s going to teach Mudiay the right way to play basketball (although limiting his 3PA may not be the worst thing in the world for him).

Other Prospects At The Hoop Summit:
-The two prospects who guarded him the most were Stanley Johnson and Kelly Oubre. Johnson is quick for a prospect of his size, but I think asking him to stay in front of Mudiay was a bit too much as he had a hard time cutting off his drives. Also Johnson struggled to create off the dribble vs. the world zone. It could easily have just been a bad game, as it seems like it was a bad matchup for Johnson on a number of levels. But it woulda been nice if he did more to stand out.

-Oubre on the other hand showed awesome quicks as he seemingly cut off Mudiay’s drives at will. Literally every time Mudiay crossed paths with Oubre he had a bad time (7:08, 10:54, 22:35, 27:50, 52:38). Also Oubre’s block on Trey Lyles was pretty awesome (1:24:45). DraftExpress thinks Oubre has questionable defensive fundamentals, and I’m not yet ready to say that they are wrong but I’m starting to question their questions. Also from my mix tape studying Oubre might be the most explosive guy on the floor and he finished with 3 assists and 1 turnover, so he’s checking off all of the boxes for me. It’s possible that he’s like Wiggins but slightly less athletic and way better at basketball. Again, maybe just a good game/good matchup but my intrigue is growing.

-Jahlil Okafor is kind of a black hole. His final box score looks alright if you focus on the 14 points and 10 rebounds, but 0 assists and 4 turnovers are less impressive. Historically his assist stats are not good, so I hope he’s not just a bigger Jabari (which is an astute comparison that was made in the comment section of my prior post). The good news is that he showed some quick feet to stay in front of Mudiay twice in a row (1:27:15) which can somewhat mitigate his lack of rim protection.

-Tyus Jones is like 90% to be a boss. He might be my favorite college player in this class. He is small and lacks elite athleticism however, so this places a damper on his ability to have high NBA draft stock.

-Justise Winslow had a good game, although it was mostly from scoring points in transition, finishing a nifty lob from Jones, and hitting a buzzer beating 3 to end the 1st half. So I don’t think he proved he can fit in offensively at higher levels, he just had a good game. I still like him and remain hopeful for his Duke performance.

-Myles Turner was there but I believe he was combatting an injury that prevented him from shining. Based on his profile he seems to have at least some #1 overall equity, although he carries a slippery raw label which to me implies that he is bad at converting his physical strengths into production.

-Trey Lyles is completely meh to me. As far as I can tell he racks up points and rebounds without actually doing anything that will be exceptionally useful at the NBA level.

-Karl Towns had a disappointing game. 17 minutes, 6 points, 0 assists, 4 turnovers, 4 fouls. If he has too many games like this at Kentucky he’s not going #1. But he did have a great block + rebound + outlet pass sequence at 8:22 that stood out to me.

-Cliff Alexander has a small slice of #1 equity, with the emphasis on small. He has a great PF body and is an explosive athlete, but he appears to have a center skill level which places a damper on his upside. He didn’t do too much this game, although he had an impressive block on Mudiay and a couple of tough goaltending calls went against him.

If I had to guess who would end up #1 on my big board among the players in the game, my rankings go Towns > Okafor > Oubre > Johnson > Turner > Winslow > Mudiay > Alexander > Jones. It’s the thinnest of thin slice predictions, so these rankings may look totally bananas a year from now. But I’m addicted to making predictions, so I may as well give it a whirl.