• Home
  • About
  • Mock Drafts
  • Big Board
  • NCAA
  • International

Dean On Draft

~ NBA Draft Analysis

Dean On Draft

Tag Archives: JJ Redick

Malik Monk Is On Permanent Fire

25 Sunday Dec 2016

Posted by deanondraft in Uncategorized

≈ 11 Comments

Tags

JJ Redick, JR Smith, lol Calipari, Malik Monk, Reggie Miller, Stephen Curry

malik-monk-ftr-121716jpg_11hfff0g2wxq61q3618vvdy10r

For every incoming freshman class, it is fun to make predictions based on the biases of traditional scouts. Malik Monk’s scouting report was that he was an athletic scorer who did not play defense and took poor shots. Scouts highly value athleticism and scoring and are willing to overlook poor defense and basketball IQ in prospects that have both strengths. Given that Monk was only rated #9 RSCI, he seemed like a strong candidate to bust. After all, he had a similar profile to Malik Newman who was similarly rated and completely flopped last year.

But this year’s class apparently only includes good prospects, and Monk has led Kentucky to a great start with his surprisingly efficient scoring. Basketball twitter is still abound with skeptics of his NBA upside, as his lack of size, point guard skills, ability to get to the rim, and defense seemingly preclude him from becoming an NBA star. After all– how valuable is elite athleticism if it does not lead to good defense or slashing ability?

The common comparison for Monk is JR Smith as a player who is mostly a floor spacer in spite of his great athleticism, as he lacks the ball skills and smarts to capitalize on his physical ability. I was initially on board, as they share similar strengths and limitations and it overall felt reasonable.

But Monk kept making shots and Kentucky kept playing well. When outcomes badly fail to align with a prediction, there is often an outlier force that my initial prediction underrated. Intuitively it felt wrong to continue to fade Monk, and that more attention should be given to what he can do rather than what he cannot do.

Let’s Not Be Redickulous

Monk had an elite combination of volume and efficiency in AAU, he has an elite combination thus far in NCAA, so why would he not continue the trend in the NBA?

There are a few reasons– first his NCAA sample is small against many weak teams, and it he may not continue to shoot fireballs against superior competition. He heavily relies on transition scoring, and those opportunities wane as competition levels increase. But then you compare his freshman statistics per 100 possessions to those of another common comp: JJ Redick:

REB AST TOV STL BLK
Redick 4.4 3.6 2.8 2.0 0.1
Monk 4.3 4 3.4 1.9 0.6

They are strikingly similar. The main difference is that Monk has more blocks due to his greater athleticism, but Redick used his smarts to keep pace on steals and both players are allergic to rebounds. Now shooting and scoring:

2PA 2P% 3PA 3P% FTA FT% Pts
Redick 6.6 43.9% 12.8 39.9% 6.0 91.9% 26.6
Monk 14.3 58.8% 14.6 39.4% 4.6 83.9% 37.8

Redick has the better FT% and surprisingly FT rate. But Monk has a slightly higher 3PA rate, and then there is the glaring advantage in 2 point volume and efficiency. This is especially impressive in tandem with Monk’s turnover rate.

Yes, much of that goodness will wane as he translates to NBA competition, but there is a whole lot of goodness there, and it will not go away altogether.

For starters, Monk will be one of the best transition scorers in the NBA. He will not be able to solely depend on this, but his athleticism, instincts, and shot making mean that he will be as productive as anybody in the league and this will pad his overall efficiency. This may in part explain his low defensive rebound rate, as he is likely leaking out a ton, so it comes at a cost. But it is nevertheless a feature that should not be ignored.

He’s On (Permanent) Fire!27148-nba-jam-snes-screenshot-he-s-on-fire

The interesting part is that Monk may become the 2nd best pull up jump shooter in NBA history behind Steph Curry. His synergy shooting splits are a wonderland (C&S = catch and shoot):

Poss Pts PPP Pctile
C&S Guarded 43 62 1.44 88
C&S Unguarded 16 20 1.25 56
Pullup Jumpers 39 44 1.13 88
Short J’s (< 17′) 14 14 1.00 81
Medium J’s 17 22 1.29 98
3 Point J’s 72 99 1.38 87

He is fireballs from everywhere, except unguarded catch and shoot jumpers where he is merely average on a smaller sample.

Some of the difficult shot making is not sustainable, but even with a fair bit of regression he is still clearly special talent. The percentile ranks are in comparison to players with a lower volume of attempts on average, and there is no precedent of such a young player playing such an inefficient style with such an efficient outcome.

screen-shot-2015-04-10-at-10-09-41-am

Meanwhile, coach Cal says: “I’m trying to say get to the foul line. Go to the line more, don’t just shoot all perimeter jumpers. He’s such a great athlete and he’s so good with the ball, why settle? I know it’s easier and he goes on a run of making 7 in a row, but they can’t guard him when he goes to the basket.”

Calipari also wanted Monk to drive it down 2 with 20 seconds left, but fortunately his player was smart enough to shoot a 3 that went in to give Kentucky the lead and eventual victory. His coach is somehow completely ignorant of his player’s strengths and optimal usage, which only makes it more exciting to imagine Monk in the hands of a good NBA coach.

But Can He Create?

Monk cannot create offense by slashing to the rim like most guards, but he can create it by converting shots that are inefficient for mortal guards. This is where his athleticism *might* serve its greatest function, as it gives him the *possible* ability to get off a high volume of attempts without a drastically lower percentage of conversions. I include the qualifiers because I am not certain that a player of his limited handle can continue to shoot so well off the dribble, but his athleticism could be the key ingredient to make it sustainable.

Monk’s playmaking ability remains in question, but he does have a decent assist rate for a player who shares the backcourt with two pure point guards in Isaiah Briscoe and De’Aaron Fox. His pass button and vision do not appear to be broken, so it is feasible that he does develop into a solid playmaker at the NBA level.

If he can 1) create offense for himself and others in the half court 2) be a blur in transition and 3) be a dynamite floor spacer, that adds up to quite the offensive weapon. And given his fantastic athleticism there is some hope for him to develop a semblance of a slashing game.

Limitations

newyorkknicksvlosangelesclippersq3vsf8p-uwql

The downside is that it cannot be taken for granted he will continue to make shots at an insane rate. In 2015 AAU he only shot 35% from 3 and 79% FT. His Kentucky sample is still extremely small, and even after a full season his NBA shooting will be difficult to predict. Buddy Hield just had a full NCAA season of elite volume shooting and is struggling to convert 3’s in the NBA. And with Monk’s defense and rebounding likely being bad, there is significant pressure on him becoming great offensively to justify a top 10 draft selection.

If Monk proves to be a good but not great shooter, then he is merely JR Smith, except shorter, worse at rebounding, and probably worse on defense. Not an ideal outcome.

Even if he is an elite shooter, there are no guarantees for his playmaking and creation abilities. It is possible that his off the dribble shooting thus far is a fluke, and will never be great because of his limited ball handling ability. He could be JJ Redick with more athleticism, less intelligence, and overall similar value.

My favorite comparison is Reggie Miller with less height and more athleticism. They both share elite shooting, terrible rebounding, and a knack for overall efficient offensive play. Reggie Miller was never a mega-star, but he was the best player on some good Pacers teams and a highly favorable outcome outside the top 3.

And Miller is not his absolute upside. There is some scenario where his shot improves at an outlier rate and he becomes almost as good of a shooter as Stephen Curry, with his athleticism compensating for his inferior skill level. This is an unlikely outcome, but there is some happy medium in between Miller and Curry that is attainable if things break right for Monk.

Bottom Line

636179936231847064-uk-malik-monk

Monk is nowhere near guaranteed to become a star, and even if he does his upside is not quite boundless. His warts are real, and they cannot be ignored as they would be a deal breaker for lottery consideration for almost any other similar prospect. Thus I do not believe he belongs in the top 3 conversation with Fultz, Ball, and Jackson.

But if anybody is going to overcome those warts to attain greatness, it will be somebody with outlier strengths like Monk with his elite intersection of shooting volume, shooting efficiency, and athleticism. There is no precedent of a prospect with a superior combination of these traits, and they could synergize to create an upside tail that exceeds any reasonable projection.

Ultimately Malik Monk is a unique talent, and if he remotely sustains his early shooting performance, he will clearly deserve a top 10 selection and could rank as high as the #4 player in the draft. This is a rare case where the hype for a one dimensional athletic scorer may actually be justified.

Video

Nik Stauskas Makes A Case For Defense Being Unimportant

27 Monday Jan 2014

Posted by deanondraft in NCAA

≈ 4 Comments

Tags

JJ Redick, Michigan, Nik Stauskas, Stephen Curry

In spite of the importance of defense with respect to prospect value, not all prospects who project as liabilities on that end have limited value. Stephen Curry, Steve Nash, and Ryan Anderson are examples of players who provided elite value at their draft slots that would have been missed with steadfast refusal to draft such types. In this year’s expected crop, the prospect with the best odds of paying similar dividends is Nik Stauskas. Not only is he an elite shooter and floor spacer, but he has also shown tremendous ball handling and passing skills this season, which offers a dimension to his game that other defensively challenged prospects such as Rodney Hood and Doug McDermott are lacking. I compiled a video briefly touching upon his defensive limitations, but mostly glazing over them and highlighting his offensive strengths.

If anybody was hoping to see his offensive shortcomings, he doesn’t have any striking flaws beyond his physical limitations. If there is any complaint to be made with his offense, it is that he does not shoot enough as he hardly makes any mistakes at all.  He is boasting an astronomical 67% TS and a miniscule 11.3% turnover rate. That efficiency is unprecedented for a player who serves as an offensive centerpiece for a team that has played the 8th toughest schedule in the nation. Here is how he statistically compares to historical perimeter prospects with questionable tools, as well as Hood and Ougie. Opponent D-Rtg is based on the player’s team strength of schedule as per Kenpom.com. The far right column is how the player’s O-Rtg compares to that of Stauskas once you normalize to his SOS and usage rate, using 1.25 points of O-Rtg per 1 percent of usage as the conversion rate to offer a rough estimate:

Player Season Usage O-Rtg Opp D-Rtg Adj O-Rtg
Jimmer Fredette Senior 36.3 115.3 99 133.4
JJ Redick Senior 28.9 121.4 97 132.9
Nik Stauskas Soph 23.4 132.8 100.5 132.8
Doug McDermott Senior 32.5 121.2 101 131.9
Luke Jackson Senior 28.6 120.8 98.9 129.4
Stephen Curry Soph 31.5 122.1 102.8 129.3
Kyle Korver Senior 22.9 129.6 101.6 127.6
Rodney Hood Junior 22.9 128.3 101.2 126.8
Luke Babbitt Soph 25.9 120.7 101.7 122.4
Luke Ridnour Junior 27.6 112 99.4 118.5

I used each player’s final season of college except for Curry, since his sophomore season is a more pertinent comparison to Stauskas, and I do not believe he progressed enough as a junior to drastically boost his value. Not only do Stauskas and Curry have similar mannerisms as they maneuver through the opposing defense, but they are the two premier offensive prospects in this sample as they were able to achieve dominance at an earlier stage of their careers than others on the list. Granted that Curry did take on a larger role in his offense, Stauskas’s ball handling ability likely would enable him to do likewise if necessary.

The closest comparison is senior Redick, as he has a usage closer to Stauskas’s range and they were both centerpieces of elite major conference offenses.  The fact that Stauskas is performing on the same level as a sophomore is quite the feather in his cap, as Redick’s senior year is acclaimed as an all-time great college season.  The same adjusted O-Rtg for Redick was 125 as a sophomore, and 126.5 as a junior.

Senior Jimmer grades out the highest, but he is also the shakiest comparison given his monstrous usage.  It’s not certain that he had the basketball IQ to play such mistake free ball at a more moderate usage, as he posted just a 112.5 O-Rtg on 24.8 usage as a sophomore.

Of course bottom line production matters, but the distribution of point production is also important for translation concerns:

3 2 FT
Kyle Korver 64.1% 17.9% 18.0%
Stephen Curry 52.2% 33.6% 14.2%
Nik Stauskas 44.1% 29.4% 26.4%
JJ Redick 43.3% 33.8% 22.9%
Luke Ridnour 37.4% 37.6% 25.0%
Jimmer Fredette 34.8% 41.6% 23.6%
Rodney Hood 34.0% 43.1% 22.9%
Luke Jackson 33.4% 41.8% 24.8%
Doug McDermott 30.2% 47.3% 22.4%
Luke Babbitt 17.0% 56.3% 26.8%

The interesting bit in this sample is the strong correlation between percentage of points from 3 and NBA value with respect to draft slot.  3’s translate, but scoring inside the arc with shaky tools may be a problem. It is not a mystery why Luke Babbitt failed as a prospect, as he dominated inside the arc as a 6’9 mid major player and went on to shoot 37% from 2 as an NBA player. This does not bode well for McDermott, who attempts the majority of his 2’s at the rim and has worse tools. Hood is less of a translation concern than Ougie with superior tools and a greater frequency of two point attempts coming from midrange, although his inside the arc translation still can’t be taken for granted.

On the other side of the spectrum, it is easy to see why Curry is such a force in the NBA as he was able to sustain high efficiency on a large workload with a huge % of his attempts coming behind the arc.  This is where he sets himself apart from Stauskas, as nobody else is a pure enough shooter to be that good on that volume behind the arc.

Once again Stauskas mirrors Redick’s senior year, as they have near identical point distributions.  Their assist and turnover rates are not horribly different either (Stauskas 21.3% assist 11.3% TOV, Redick 15.7% assist 13.0% TOV).

Steals, blocks, and height:

Player Steal% Block% Height
Stephen Curry 3.5 1.4 6’3
Luke Ridnour 2.8 0.1 6’2
Kyle Korver 2.6 2 6’7
JJ Redick 2 0.1 6’4
Luke Jackson 2 0.4 6’7
Jimmer Fredette 2 0 6’2
Nik Stauskas 1.5 0.8 6’6
Luke Babbitt 1.5 1.8 6’9
Rodney Hood 1.3 0.7 6’8
Doug McDermott 0.5 0.5 6’8

This is a friendly reminder that in spite of Stauskas’s solid instincts and ability to jump a little, he still does not stand out in this collection as a defensive playmaker.  He remains a significant defensive liability.

Curry again sets himself apart from Stauskas.  Even though he was correctly projected to become a bad pro defender, his defensive playmaking at the collegiate level gives him an additional edge.  He was also a better rebounder in spite of being smaller.  Curry is clearly the overall better prospect, although Stauskas is not as far behind as current perception would suggest.

On the other hand, he continues to equate to senior Redick.  Redick had more steals, quicks, and speed, Stauskas more blocks, size, and athleticism.  And like JJ, Stauskas has the benefit of a strong work ethic.  It is difficult to envision how he was able to chisel his body and improve his handles and passing to the extent that he did and still have time to eat and sleep this offseason.  It is not a guarantee that he reaches the same level as Redick in the pros given that JJ likely achieved the upper bound of his NBA range.  But given Stauskas’s work ethic and feel for the game, his odds seem favorable.  And given that he achieved this level of success two seasons earlier and 15.5 months younger, he clearly has more upside.

Overall Nik Stauskas’s prospect value as well as style lies somewhere in the middle of JJ Redick and Stephen Curry.  If he achieves his upside as they did, he offers an excellent offensive piece to fit in any NBA offense that will make his defensive woes worth stomaching.  He still has plenty of time for his stats to lose a bit of luster, but if he continues to perform at this level through the rest of the season he likely will have value worthy of the back end of the lottery.

Follow me on Twitter

My Tweets

Top Posts & Pages

  • Let's talk about #4
    Let's talk about #4
  • 2022 Draft: International Men of Misery
    2022 Draft: International Men of Misery
  • Is Luka Doncic The Best Prospect Ever?
    Is Luka Doncic The Best Prospect Ever?
  • Where Should Jaden Ivey be Drafted?
    Where Should Jaden Ivey be Drafted?
  • Summer League Scouting: Cade Cunningham
    Summer League Scouting: Cade Cunningham
  • Searching For Bobby Portis: The Invisible 5 Star Freshman
    Searching For Bobby Portis: The Invisible 5 Star Freshman
  • Let's Talk About All of the Little SG's
    Let's Talk About All of the Little SG's
  • How good is Scottie Barnes?
    How good is Scottie Barnes?
  • The Bigger O: is Oscar Tshiebwe a Sleeper in Round 2?
    The Bigger O: is Oscar Tshiebwe a Sleeper in Round 2?
  • Big Boards
    Big Boards

Recent Comments

76ers Fan on 2022 Draft: International Men…
Bows on 2022 Draft: International Men…
David on 2022 Draft: International Men…
deanondraft on Let’s talk about #4
deanondraft on Let’s talk about #4

Blog at WordPress.com.

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy
  • Follow Following
    • Dean On Draft
    • Join 55 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • Dean On Draft
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar
 

Loading Comments...