Tag Archives: Cleanthony Early

Parsing Through The NCAA Prospects: Part 4

25 Wednesday Jun 2014

Posted by in NCAA

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Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Commentary on a handful of Round 2 prospects who I skipped in the NCAA parse

Rim creation stats

Zach LaVine
The funny thing about LaVine is that it seems HS scouts rated him accurately as the #52 recruit in his class, and then when he went to college it was decided that he should now be a lotto talent because he can jump through the roof. His steal rate, assist rate, and half-court rim creation stats are all poor and I don’t see a single statistical signal that he has nearly the upside that draft narratives suggest. Further he seems to be a skeptic that 3 > 2, as his favorite move is to catch the ball behind the arc, take a few dribbles, and then launch a long two with his foot on the arc.

He seems to think he has PG skills that he wasn’t permitted to display at UCLA because Kyle Anderson was the primary PG and the coach’s son Bryce Alford was the backup. If he has a world of skill that somehow went completely undetected during his time at UCLA and he also develops well, then maybe he will one day justify the hype. But for now I’m rolling with the more likely conclusion that he’s a leaper who can shoot but lacks the skill and smarts to succeed in the NBA. I think he’s an early 2nd round flier.

Adreian Payne
He seems to be the prototypical stretch 4 from a scouting perspective- he has good height and length for a PF, he makes 3’s, he rebounds, he has the athleticism to finish in the paint, and he seems to have a shot of being competent defensively. This has earned him an invite to the green room and chatter as a fringe lottery pick. But every statistical model I have seen grades him as a mid-late 2nd rounder.

Issue #1 with Payne is that he doesn’t have the steal or block rates to exist as a rim protecting center. Issue #2 is that he has a dreadful assist to turnover rate in spite of being exceptionally old. This doesn’t quite strike me as a death knell, but his horrible passing may completely nullify his ability to fit in offensively as a stretch 4. I still have a bit of skepticism toward his ranking in statistical models, but I see why they would dislike him enough to have a bit more skepticism toward his 1st round ranking. I have him as an early 2nd.

Jerami Grant
I don’t think he should be a 1st rounder. His tools give him upside to be pretty good defensively on the wing once removed from the Syracuse zone, but he simply doesn’t have the skill level to play offensively on the wing in any capacity. He doesn’t even have good skill level for PF, where he is likely too small to play regularly.  I’m not sure how he finds a niche in NBA lineups.

Russ Smith
Russdiculous has made an incredible transformation from his sophomore season when he was an inveterate chucker. Since then he has vastly improved his shooting ability, PG skills, and shot selection to become one of the best players in the NCAA. He is likely too old and small to have much upside, but he makes up for his size with quicks, speed, and quick hands to force a high number of steals in Louisville’s press. He somewhat reminds me of a poor man’s Kyle Lowry. While he almost certainly won’t become nearly as good as Lowry, I believe he’s a solid 2nd round flier.

Nick Johnson
He’s a dreaded SG in a PG body, which is never good for draft stock. Further he doesn’t have an exceptionally high skill level for a 21 year old SG, as both Layne Vashro and Kevin Pelton grade him as a late 2nd rounder based on stats. But I think he has a niche in the NBA anyway as a 3 + D PG. He is an explosive athlete with solid quickness, and he was one of the best defensive guards in the NCAA this past season as he played a key role in Arizona’s super elite defense. There’s such an influx of big PG’s who can cross match with SG’s, I think he’s a good player to target in round 2 if you can pair him with a Michael Carter-Williams or Dante Exum sized PG.

Chris Udofia
A largely unknown prospect who ranks 17th according to VJL’s EWP model. Udofia is an interesting case– like most of the Denver team, he rocked as a junior and then regressed as a senior. Vashro uses a 60/40 weighting, so his junior season plays a big role in his EWP score. Denver runs a unique offense with heavy emphasis on passing and 3 point shooting as they rated top 2 in assists:FGM and top 20 in 3PA:FGA in each of the past two seasons. Defensively they gamble for steals (I don’t know their precise scheme but his steal rate certainly comes with a grain of salt). Both their offensive and defensive 2p% fell off a cliff from 2013 to 2014, as they dropped from the 53rd kenpom team to 143rd in spite of retaining much of their rotation. I don’t know the precise cause, but suffice it to say that Denver is not a run of the mill mid-major team. Further, Udofia played as an undersized 6’6″ center, so there were a number of factors aligning in his favor to post statistics that overstate his talent level.

That said, I’m not completely writing him off. He has a 7’2″ wingspan and appears to be quite explosive based on his block rate and dunk reel. He posted an excellent assist rate playing in Denver’s ball movement offense, which inspires hope for his ability to convert to NBA SF. His shot is a flaw as he only made 29% 3’s and 65% FT’s for his college career, but if he can make a late leap in his shooting ability he may be a round 2 steal.

Dwight Powell
Powell is old and lacks length, athleticism, and consistent 3 point shooting.  All of these things make him not really worth a 1st round selection, as it stacks the odds of him becoming a good NBA player against him.  But he’s a good passer for a big man and is fairly athletic and mobile.  His shot isn’t completely broken, so if he can develop into a capable NBA floor spacer then you have an interesting stretch 4.  I like him as a 2nd round flier.

Scottie Wilbekin
It’s a bit surprising that he isn’t generating any buzz as a 2nd round draft pick.  He was perceived as the leader of the #1 overall seed in the tournament and played quite well en route to the Final Four.  Granted he struggled badly in an upset loss to UConn, tallying just 4 points 1 assist and 3 turnovers.  But based on his college reputation you’d expect him to rank higher than 74th on Chad Ford’s big board, and he’s not even in DX’s top 100, as he’s only their 50th best senior.  I imagine the issue is his lack of length (6’3.25″) and bulk (168 lbs), but those critiques also apply to Shabazz Napier and Wilbekin is 1.75 inches taller and more athletic.  He’s young for his class and does a little bit of everything.  Layne Vashro rates him as the #35 NCAA prospect and Kevin Pelton rates him as the #27 overall prospect.  Given that he was a good defensive player at the NCAA level, I would say that’s enough to make him worth a 2nd round flier.

Khem Birch
It seems stat models have Birch pegged as a second round sleeper, but I don’t share their enthusiasm. He is underskilled for a center, as his offensive repertoire is limited to offensive rebounds and dunks. He can’t pass and he can’t create his own shot at the rim. His 69.3% FT as a junior gives some hope for his shot which is instantly crushed by him shooting 20/75 (26.7%) from mid-range.

To make matters worse, he is undersized for a PF at 6’9.25″ with a 7’1″ wingspan while weighing a paltry 209 pounds. Not only does his size cast doubt on his ability to translate his gaudy block rate to the NBA, but how in the world is he ever going to have enough skill to fit in offensively at PF? He is far too small to play center full time.

Birch strikes me as a cut and dry case of somebody who is built to dominate NCAA and then not translate to the NBA due to his lack of size. You can give his stats enough regard to take him somewhere in round 2, but he’s a run of the mill flier as opposed to a compelling sleeper in my book.

Rodney Hood
I took a cautious approach to writing about Hood earlier in the season. After a full season of observation, there is no need for caution. The guy has mediocre tools and is a complete trainwreck defensively. He had poor steal and block rates, and he was regularly faked out and blown by. He was likely the worst defensive player on Coach K’s worst defensive team that I can remember. Offensively he’s a good shooter and has solid feel for the game as he passes well for a SF. That’s not nearly enough for a 21 y/o with lackluster tools who is lock bad on defense, at best he’s worth a late 2nd round flier.

Cleanthony Early
I honestly can’t fathom how he turns out to be useful as a pro. In spite of being 23 he’s a horrible passer and couldn’t even create shots at the rim playing in the Missouri Valley Conference. He doesn’t have a good steal rate, he doesn’t eye test well defensively, and he’s obviously too small to play PF full time.  He can shoot and he can jump but at age 23 you need more going for you than that to succeed in the NBA. I don’t see how he’s draftable. He is extremely fortunate that he had the game of his life when everybody was watching vs. Kentucky to generate all of his draft hype.

Sim Bhullar
Nobody wants to talk about the New Mexico State giant, but I do.  He’s probably a stiff, but I think people are too quick to assume that he can’t be useful.  The man is 7’5, he doesn’t need to have a world of talent to become a useful rotation player.  He weighs 360 pounds and there is clearly quite a bit of room to improve his physical profile.  Why not take a flier in the back end of round 2, try to get him on a dietary program to see if he can trim down, and then see what happens?  He claims he has lost 17 pounds in the past month which isn’t a bad start.

Also I am not totally convinced that he’s a stiff.  I watched about one half of New Mexico State basketball in the NCAA tournament vs. San Diego State, and I was surprised to see Bhullar make a graceful catch and finish on a long outlet pass in transition.  Layne Vashro’s EWP stat model rates him as a late 1st rounder, although it’s possible that the Bhullar ranking is broken by his outlier height as EWP also rated Shawn Bradley as a historically great prospect.  There’s nevertheless enough to like here such that I’m at least intrigued to see if he can become something if he trims down.

Playing The Round 2 Lotto

22 Tuesday Apr 2014

Posted by in Miscellaneous, NCAA

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Round 2 is the uneventful part of the draft, where the majority of picks amount to little or nothing.  But sometimes teams uncover solidly useful players such as Chandler Parsons, Isaiah Thomas, Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver, Danny Green, Omer Asik, etc.  The goal of drafting in round 2 should be to draft a starting caliber player such as the aforementioned names.  It is more likely that you can find a fringe bench player such as Chris Duhon, but those types offer little value since they can always be acquired with the veteran’s minimum.  Bearing that in mind, I’d like to review some of the highly rated players that I’d pass on and the unheralded players who I’d target instead:

Do Not Draft: CJ Wilcox (#32 ESPN, #35 DX)

I have no problems with Wilcox’s game, as he is a solidly good college player without any glaring warts.  But the underlying logic to rate him as a fringe 1st round prospect is so backwards that the thought of him going round 1 is somewhat grating to me.  CJ Wilcox is a good shooter, as he shot 39% from 3’s and 87% from FT as a senior.  He also has average size and athleticism for an NBA SG.  If you were required to trot out a round 2 prospect for bench minutes in 2014-15 season and hope he does not submarine your 2nd unit, Wilcox would not a bad pick.  But that is the opposite of the correct goal for drafting in round 2, as teams are not required to play their 2nd rounders.  And unless he was woefully misused in his 4 years at Washington, he is drawing dead to become a starting caliber SG.  He turns 24 in December and his skills outside of shooting are largely underdeveloped.  As a senior, he was roughly the same player he was as a freshmen and is not much of a handler, passer, rebounder, or defender.  Considering his age, it is exceptionally unlikely that he develops his non-shooting skills to NBA levels of competence, and it’s not like he’s a Kyle Korver or JJ Redick level shooter.  His upside is roughly Willie Green, the poster child for replacement level SG.

Instead Draft: Isaiah Sykes (unranked ESPN, unranked DX)

Sykes is the inverse Wilcox, in that he’s good at everything except shooting.  This was roughly Chandler Parsons’s appeal: he was a good handler, passer, rebounder, and finisher and then when his shot developed better than expected he quickly became a solid starter.  Sykes is 6’5 with a 6’11 wingspan and exceptional athleticism, and he offers defensive upside that Parsons lacked.  He racked up a solid steal rate in his final 2 seasons at Central Florida, and could be effective on this end playing for an NBA coach.  Also he is a good rebounder, ball handler, and passer, and his shot is not completely hopeless as he shot 34 for 103 (33%) from 3 for his college career, improving his 3p% each season.  The downside is that he shot poorly from the FT line (54% as a senior 56% overall) and was generally an inefficient and turnover prone player in his large offensive workload.  He turns 23 in December which gives him limited time to improve his shot, but his shooting splits are not too different from Parsons who was similarly bad at FT’s and merely took a higher volume of 3’s.  If his shot can take a mini-leap and he lands with an NBA coach who gives his game a nice haircut, he has enough positive qualities to become a solidly good cog in any NBA unit.

Do Not Draft: Jahii Carson (#38 ESPN, #42 DX)

Why is this guy a prospect?  He’s explosive, but he’s also diminutive at 5’11 and not exceptionally skilled.  He’s a solid but not great shooter and passer, and he struggles to finish inside amongst the trees in college.  He also is a near lock to be woefully bad on defense given his size and the fact that he did not accrue many steals to help atone for this.  He has developed a reputation as a selfish player and he is old for a sophomore as he turns 22 in August.  There is little to like and oh so much to dislike.

Instead Draft: Kendrick Perry (unranked ESPN, unranked DX)

Perry is also diminutive, as he recently measured 5’11.75 in shoes and 169 pounds at Portsmouth.  But he atones with exceptional explosiveness and length with a 6’6 wingspan.  Even though he’s a senior, he’s actually 4 months younger than Carson.  And while he shares Jahii’s burst with similar shooting and passing abilities, he is also better at everything else.  He’s a better finisher, rebounder, defender, and superior at protecting the ball.  He completely and utterly outclasses Carson in every way conceivable, and the fact that Jahii is on draft radar and Perry isn’t speaks to the inefficiency of consensus prospect rankings.

Do Not Draft: Cleanthony Early (#24 ESPN, #27 DX)

Well, this hype train sure got out of hand in a hurry.  I rather like Early as a college player, but considering him in round 1 is a hilarious overreaction to a well timed career game vs. Kentucky in the tournament.  Early appeared incapable of ever missing a jump shot vs UK, but you can trust me on this one: he sometimes missed shots in his other games.  He has solid size and good athleticism for a SF, but really what else is there?  He’s a solid but not exceptional shooter, and his finishing will struggle to translate when he is facing NBA competition rather than undersized Missouri Valley Conference bigs.  While his athleticism enables him to average 1 block per game, he projects to be a liability on defense overall.  And most troubling is this blurb from DX:

“The only small forwards drafted with a lower assist percentage in our database spanning back to 2001 (who played over 20 minutes per game in that college season) are Lazar Hayward, Al Thornton, Shabazz Muhammad, Dahntay Jones, Deshaun Thomas, Bobby Jones, Damion James and Maurice Ager”

Yikes, that is a frighteningly worthless collection of players.  And to make matters worse, Early’s pitiful assist rate came at age 22 (he turned 23 last week), and he should have learned to sometimes pass by now.  This calls his feel for the game into question, and it’s difficult to envision him becoming useful vs. NBA competition.

Draft Instead: Javon McCrea (unranked ESPN, unranked DX)

If only because his stats are frighteningly similar to those of Paul Millsap:
USG% O-Rtg eFG% FT% AST%
Millsap 26.9 114.3 57.6 62.3 8.2
McCrea 28.3 115 56.2 66.7 16.6
ORB% DRB% STL% BLK% Height
Millsap 18.1 23.9 3.2 6.7 6’7
McCrea 13.7 20.6 2.7 7.2 6’7

These stats are from each player’s final season of college, and McCrea will only be 3 months older as of draft night.

Millsap played a tougher schedule and is clearly the superior prospect with his advantages in rebounding and steals.  But McCrea’s assist advantage is not to be scoffed at, as assist rates correlate with feel for the game.  But falling short of Millsap’s goodness is not a bad thing, as he was woefully undervalued sliding to 47th overall in the 2006 draft.  More importantly, Millsap proves that undersized mid-major bullies do not necessarily flop in the pros.  McCrea’s assist and steal rates offer hope that he has the feel and length to become something in the NBA.  It will be interesting to see how he measures out pre-draft, because he offers intrigue as a 2nd round flier based on his stat stuffing and parallels to Millsap.

Do Not Draft: Rodney Hood (#21 ESPN #23 DX)

I have been bashing Hood all season, and finally DX and ESPN are starting to catch up as they no longer have him as a top 20 pick.  Nevertheless, he should never get picked in round 1 and I do not find him to be particularly compelling in round 2 either.  His only positive tool is that he has solid height for an NBA SF, and even that is in part due to his long neck.  He has subpar strength, length, quicks, and athleticism.  And to make matters worse, he has awful instincts defensively and doesn’t seem interested in working hard on this end either.  He projects to be somewhere on the scale of worst all time defender to a clear liability.  What does he bring offensively to offset this?  He’s a good shooter and a solid passer with decent feel for the (offensive aspect of the) game.  That is all.  He doesn’t rebound and isn’t much of ball handler or finisher.  It’s difficult to envision his offense amounting to enough to make his defense worth stomaching.  When at age 21 you are just the 6th best player on a team that cannot win a single tourney game, it may be a sign you aren’t going to excel in the NBA.

(Side note: as an avid Duke watcher my player ratings this past season are: Amile > Jabari >> Cook > Dawkins > Sulaimon > Hood.  Amile is the Amir Johnson of college: he goes unnoticed due to low scoring totals but makes a ton of good plays, not many bad ones, and has an overall surprisingly positive impact.)

Draft Instead: Artem Klimenko (unranked ESPN, #35 DX)

Klimenko is a complete and utter mystery box, which makes him a great player to target in round 2.  He is 7’1 with a 7’4 wingspan and good mobility, but at age 20 he has yet to face any level of challenging competition.  According to DX he is averaging 15 points in 24 minutes on 57% inside the arc against weak Russian competition.   This means little for his NBA projection, but at least he’s dominating the dregs like he should.  Also he shoots 74% from the line, which offers hope that he has some semblance of skill.  The primary question is whether he has the instincts and intelligence to maximize his physical tools and become a useful NBA defensive player, which is where he has the most potential.  If he does, then perhaps whoever gambles on him will acquire an Omer Asik level steal.  If not, at least you didn’t waste your pick on a player who has already strongly suggested that he lacks upside.  Teams can glean more regarding how worthwhile of a gamble Klimenko is via interviews and workouts.  But as a general concept: young, toolsy internationals with fuzzy translation are good targets as the talent on the board thins.  Giannis Antetokoumpo going 15th overall last year is a good example of this.

Closing Thoughts:

The players I listed as solid round 2 targets are some ultra deep sleepers, and it’s reasonably likely that all of them amount to nothing.  The vast majority of players who ever may amount to anything are already on DX/ESPN’s radar at this stage, and the best 2nd round picks will likely be players who are already on the radar and slide too far.  For instance: Spencer Dinwiddie (#42 ESPN/#49 DX) has become a bit of a forgotten man after his ACL injury.  But he still may declare nevertheless, and he may slide to round 2 and then become a Korver/Green level role playing wing.  Jarnell Stokes (#28 ESPN, #49 DX) also may make for a valuable role player with his unique combination of speed, strength, and skill.  But these players also may go in round 1 and the players that *should* merit 1st round consideration often make for the best 2nd round picks.

Since it is difficult to anticipate precisely where everybody will land when the draft actually happens, I constrained myself to scraping the barrel for this exercise.  So take this as a demonstration of my logic for uncovering diamonds in the rough as opposed to my list of favorite round 2 sleepers, as it will ultimately be the Dinwiddie/Stokes type sliders who are the slickest steals.