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Big Board

02 Friday May 2014

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So now that we officially have the draft class set, I can publish my first big board specific to 2014!

Notes:
-Age is as of draft night
-This is not where I think players *will* get drafted, it’s where I think they *should* get drafted.
-I am aggressively thin slicing the international prospects and will modify my placement of them as I learn more about them.

Big Board

Before people new to the site get upset over my bold stances, I have detailed explanations for my contrarian positions.

Top Players: Save for Jabari Parker, all are underrated at this juncture: Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart, Jusuf Nurkic

Overrated players: Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, Doug McDermott, Zach LaVine.

If you are wondering why some fringe first rounds such as Hood, Early, and Wilcox are buried so deep, I wrote about it in my post regarding the 2nd round lotto

Internationals:
-At age 19, Clint Capela was 2nd in French League PER narrowly behind 27 year old Ahmad Nivins. Good stats, good tools, and youth are the three important traits to seek in prospects on a macro level, and he checks all 3 boxes.

-Kristaps Porzingis is one of the youngest prospects in the draft. He is 7’0 and racks up steals and blocks and sometimes hits 3’s. He is fairly thin at 220 pounds and doesn’t rebound well, but his baseline package of height, defense, and shooting is rather compelling.

-Damien Inglis essentially shares LeBron James’s body with longer arms and merely decent athleticism. He doesn’t score much and his shot mechanics are questionable, but his small sample shooting stats are good and he gets good rebound, assist, and steal totals. He could become a stronger Nicolas Batum and appears to be vastly underrated.

-Nikola Jokic brings a high skill level and questionable tools. He is 6’11 253 with a 7’3 wingspan, but lacks speed and athleticism. He atones for this with good passing, shooting, and basketball IQ. His Adriatic League stats are strong in spite of struggling from 3 (15/68 = 22.1%). He has a similar skill set to Brad Miller.

NCAA:
–KJ McDaniels has been one of the most underrated prospects in the draft all season long and he is still underrated. He is a great defensive prospect with solid offensive potential as well

-DX and ESPN are finally catching onto Elfrid Payton’s goodness. He is a high upside PG with two way potential for the few teams that need a PG.

-Jordan Adams is such a weird prospect. He has great skill level and feel for the game but largely underwhelming tools. But his stats are so good for his age he is worth a gamble in the back end of round 1.

-Spencer Dinwiddie’s stock takes a slight hit due to him coming off an ACL tear, but he is an intelligent prospect who has the skills and tools to become a solid role playing SG that easily fits into any NBA lineup.

-Isaiah Austin is a rare top 5 recruit that is underrated at draft time. He has plenty of warts (poor finishing, mediocre rebounding, questionable feel) but he has an invaluable pairing of strengths: rim protection and 3 point shooting. I recently wrote that Julius Randle lacking these strengths submarines his stock in spite of his other goodness, and this theory applies in the opposite direction for Austin.

-I have a hard time getting excited for James Young. He requires significant offensive improvement to be worth anything, and even if he becomes a quality scorer his defense will still likely be a concern.

-Jerami Grant is somewhat difficult to peg. His value is largely based on defensive potential, which is difficult to assess as he played in the back of Syracuse’s zone. His other big question is: how does he fit into an NBA offense if he doesn’t develop surprising 3 point range?

-DeAndre Daniels’s stock has blown up following UConn’s title run. Color me skeptical. He is old for his class, rail thin, and never passes. His strengths are not strong enough to merit 1st round consideration. I prefer Okaro White who is slightly better in a similar mold, but projects to go undrafted.

-Sim Bhullar is 7’5 360 and is generally regarded as not draftable. I think he is worth a flier in the back end of round 2, as he has quite a bit of upside to improve his body and may be less stiff-like in the case that he successfully does so.

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Big Board

17 Monday Feb 2014

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Age is as of draft night (6/26/2014). I still need to catch up on a few internationals, but it’s looking like we are going to have 4 important ones in this year’s crop, and I have included all of them in this iteration:

Big Board

Notable Exclusions:
Wayne Selden (26th DX, 27th ESPN)
CJ Wilcox (35th DX, 28th ESPN)
Jahii Carson (38th DX, 31st ESPN)

This draft is shaping up to have 3 clear prizes: Embiid, Exum, and Parker.  Marcus Smart would have been able to challenge Parker for #3 if not for his shooting woes.  Tyler Ennis’s stock is inhibited by his lack of tools and current NBA PG depth.  Noah Vonleh’s warts keep me from getting too high on him, but he still has quite a bit of upside intrigue.

People may think I’m being too harsh with my ranking on Andrew Wiggins, Aaron Gordon, and Julius Randle, but I think I am giving them all quite a bit of leeway to prove me wrong.  I have them all as 1st rounders and Wiggins as early lotto, after all.

Willie Cauley-Stein is dropping too far.  There are reasons to be skeptical of his odds of success, but there’s a limit to how far you can drop a player with his tools and possible defensive impact.  DX’s rank of 12th is reasonable, ESPN’s rank of 19th is not.

DX is starting to catch up on McDaniels, Hairston, and Portis all being underrated.  ESPN is much slower to pick up on sleepers.

For my money, KJ McDaniels is the best NCAA player in the country.  He has been posting some ridiculously insane February box scores.  Casuals can have their Ougie, I’ll take 2 way superstar KJ.  Shame that he goes to waste on that woeful Clemson team.

I have been doing some digging on Jusuf Nurkic and Clint Capela, and they both carry a good deal of intrigue as upside picks.  If I am gambling on a mystery box, I feel much better than them than college freshman such as Aaron Gordon or James Young.

I am warming up to UCLA’s Kyle Anderson.  His lack of quicks and athleticism are problematic, but he is so big, smart, and skilled that he can’t be sold too short.

Spencer Dinwiddie and Jerian Grant are underrated due to their seasons being over prematurely, and there’s a strong chance that neither of them is in this draft class.  But that does not diminish their appeal to me.  I have a suspicion that the wrong Grant brother may be getting the hype, as Jerian is a much easier fit into an NBA lineup.

Things become incredibly fluid from 19 down.  I am softening my anti-Saric stance until I am able to attain a thicker slice, but I still do not see what he offers that Kyle Anderson does not.

Briante Weber is an interesting new addition to my board.  His steal rate is off the charts, and anybody who is an outlier on defense is going to catch my eye.  He will likely become a prospect of note at some point as he breaks prediction models that heavily price in steals.

It’s time to put the Zach LaVine hype train on hold.  He can jump, he can shoot, and as far as I can tell that’s pretty much it.  I have a hard time getting excited for him until he shows some discernible basketball skill beyond shooting.  I like that DX is right there with me.  They are clearly sharper than ESPN on average.

Jordan Clarkson has an impact on others that completely and utterly mystifies me.  He is good but not great upperclassmen with OKish tools playing on a fringe tourney team, yet everybody wants to discuss him as a 1st rounder.  DX and ESPN are the least guilty, as I often see random mocks that have him in the 1st round and nbadraft.net has him as the #14 overall pick.  Can somebody fill me in on what joke I’m missing here?

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Big Board

24 Friday Jan 2014

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It’s time for my first big board of top 60 prospects.  Note that because internationals are less accessible for analysis than NCAA players, some highly rated ones are missing.  As the draft nears, more internationals will start appearing on the  board.

Note that age is as of draft night (6/26/14):

Of course these rankings are extremely fluid.  Notable variations from consensus:

-Marcus Smart belongs ahead of Exum as they are similar players, except Exum has significantly more downside risk since he is unproven against decent competition.  Exum may have slightly more upside, but to me it is clearly outweighed by Smart’s floor.

-Julius Randle is full of warts that will likely cause his stock to drop, which I will be sure to highlight in the near future.  Chad Ford mentioned earlier today that some NBA teams rate Vonleh as higher, and he has nowhere to go but down from #4.

-Tyler Ennis is having a fantastic start to his freshman season, and has been at his best against good competition.  He may not ooze appeal with tools and upside, but his production thus far points to him being lottery worthy.

-PJ Hairston had an excellent sophomore season and likely will climb boards as focus shifts away from his offseason woes and toward his impending D-League dominance.

-Spencer Dinwiddie drops due to his recent ACL tear, but he remains underrated.  He is a prototypical complementary SG and his intelligence will likely be attractive to analytics driven teams.

-I find it amusing that nobody can bring themselves to rate Aaron Harrison ahead of Andrew even though he is obviously the better player at this point.  They were rated similarly as high school recruits and Aaron’s skill set is an easier fit in NBA lineups, so I am comfortable with a massive rift between the two in my rankings.

-Elfrid Payton is a nice upside flier who needs more attention as a 1st round prospect.  He is reminiscent of a mid-major Rondo, as he is a productive PG with tools to be great defensively but is a horrible shooter.

-It is possible that I am too bearish on James Young, as he is young for his class and has not been necessarily bad as a freshman.  But his game does not have any elements that stand out as particularly strong, and he needs to develop quite a bit to become a useful pro.

-I do not understand how Chris Walker is rated so much higher than Bobby Portis.  He was rated slightly higher as a recruit (#7 RSCI vs #14), but Portis is having a solid start to his freshman year while Walker has been unable to gain eligibility.

-RJ Hunter is my favorite mid-major player that nobody is discussing.  He is a great shooter, and his steal and block rates suggest that he may have more defensive ability than his physical limitations would suggest.

-I do not understand Dario Saric’s rating as a lottery pick.  From what I have seen, he appears to be a slightly lesser version of UCLA’s Kyle Anderson.  This is a rating that will require closer analysis before I start preaching about it at a loud volume.

-Jahii Carson is having a disappointing sophomore season and given his age, size, and translation concerns, his value as a prospect is rapidly waning.