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Here is my big board updated for all NCAA prospects, including those returning to school. Once the early entry list is set, I will update my board to make it specific to the 2014 draft and include ESPN/DX rankings for comparison.
Big Board
14 Monday Apr 2014
Posted in Big Boards
Dean On Draft 
love your stuff – just wondering why is Saric so low – at least in comparison to Kyle Anderson?
Wouldn’t they project as similar players at the next level- with an edge to Dario esp athletically?
I agree they are similar, but Anderson seems better to me. I like that Anderson is bigger and has a better shot at defending NBA PF’s. Saric may be less unathletic but it’s still a weakness for him that I believe is outweighed by Anderson’s longer arms. Also I’m a fan of Kyle’s game, he’s smart and skilled and generally pleasant to watch. Maybe my opinion of Saric would change if I watched him more, but I have yet to see where he shines that Kyle doesn’t.
Care to justify Sam Dekker as a first rounder?
It’s not high praise to label him as a late 1st rounder. Once you get past the top 25 or so on my board, the prospects start to become rather uninspiring. Dekker could be a solid role playing SF who spaces the floor, makes good decisions, and has enough tools to not get torched on defense. He doesn’t have any stand-out strengths, but his only weakness is that he isn’t much of a shot creator which is fine for a late 1st who doesn’t project to play a large role offensively.
True
what about Payne? – I know he’s old but so was Mason Plumlee – I think he may have value next year – no?
Yeah, sometimes old players are surprisingly more NBA ready than expected- I did not see Mason being this good as a rookie. I could be coerced into raising Payne back up on my board. I probably dropped him too far post tourney- I am going to refine my 21-50 rankings once the draft class is set. But he does fill an NBA niche: he’s a stretch 4 who can rebound and has the tools to play competent defense. So in the event that he pans out he will easily fit into NBA lineups because that’s a pretty nice mold.
Have you looked at Kevin Pelton’s stuff? – it’s really interesting
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/page/PerDiem-130624/ranking-prospects-warp
re Payne – Ryan Kelly is probably a more apt comparison wrt skills- I think only Pelton picked up on his potential based on his WARP projections
then again he probably won’t like Payne – he whiffed on Plumlee and Dieng who were also seniors but a year older than Kelly and both 23 when drafted, like Payne this year
I am not intimately familiar with Pelton’s WARP formula. I could be wrong but at a glance VJL’s stat model appears to be slightly better, although they do tend to like/dislike the same guys:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aipd_3kGfREgdHRtcThFd3ZtMlRPYldIRmdGb241RlE&usp=drive_web#gid=10
VJL was less bearish on Dieng + Plumlee, ranking them 30 + 29 vs Pelton’s 57 + 73. He ranks Payne really low, but I assume it’s bc there aren’t many comparable prospects w/ his blend of size, athleticism, and shooting so I wouldn’t read too much into it.
WRT Kelly, he’s a reasonable comp to Payne in terms of senior year production. But the key difference is that Payne is more athletic and mobile (Kelly is slowwww) and will have an easier time holding his own defensively. This is worth more than the age difference and will be why Payne gets 1st round consideration.
Hahaha, I can’t take this site seriously.
#14 Bobby Portis: Hahaha/
#28 Sam Dekker and #35 Isaiah Ausitin above #42 Doug McDermott….hahaha are you serious or just a troll?
Hahaha, I can’t take this site seriously.
#14 Bobby Portis: Hahaha
#47 Shawn Long above #49 Adreian Payne? Laughable.
#28 Sam Dekker and #35 Isaiah Austin above #42 Doug McDermott….hahaha are you serious or just a troll?
You say “Uniquely Good NBA Draft Analysis” but it’s more like “Trying Hard Bullshit Unique NBA Draft Analysis
You sound mad. You should probably be less mad.
Do you have any special insight that I’m wrong? What is it about Bobby Portis that makes it so inconceivable that he’s worth a mid 1st round pick? That you’ve never heard of him? Do you normally hear of future NBA players before DX/ESPN do?
The hypothesis that spurred me to create this site is that consensus rankings are woefully inefficient and I can do better. You seem to be evaluating me based on the assumption that my hypothesis is necessarily untrue, which is sorta silly since it hasn’t even been tested. Why don’t you wait a couple of years and then come back and see how my board looks before getting angry about it?
Dean is one of the finer analyst when it comes to basketball. If you go into a draft topic on a NBA team forum, you will quickly notice that it is filled with conjectures and people spewing things off that ESPN throws around which usually has no merit. Dean objectively researches prospects on the basis of who will be the most productive in the NBA, not who will be the next superstar which hardly happens(in my opinion).
Sports media outlets are hyping prospects hoping they turn into a star to capitalize of a semi-artificially built fanbase. Whatever, I get that, it just personally annoys me that casual sports fans say anything to defend the ridiculous assertions of “Next LeBron!” or “next Michael Jordan!” year, after year. As a person born into a basketball family, and having been around coaches and NBA players I see the game differently (I’m a heavy believer in statistics). I may disagree at times, but Dean makes more sense more than the majority of “analysts” and draft sites I’ve ever read with proof to back up his claim.
Nice double post moran.
While I disagree with some of Dean’s assessments, they are based on real considerations and concerns about prospects that typically don’t get priced in for whatever reason–e.g. utter lack of defensive ability (Oug McErmott)–or else get overpriced-in–i.e. high school scout ranking/hype (Andrew Wiggins). I do think Dean sometimes overemphasizes certain factors, age being one. Like Adreian Payne is a very good player who will obv translate, who cares that he’s 47. But overall this blog is a good faith effort to correctly rank players minus mainstream sports narrative bias, and you are obviously the troll in this case.
Hi Dean, big fan of your blog. A few questions about your #3-7 rankings.
-How much upside does Smart have on offense? Can he force defenders to fight over screens or will he never be a PR ball handler? Would post scoring make up for that?
-Nurkic will no doubt be a good or great post scorer, but will he be better on D than someone like Pekovic? Haven’t watched any tape but it sounds like he might lack instincts, timing, IQ.
-Re: Wiggins, a good friend of mine has been creating a simple prediction model, and HS ranking was a strong predictor at any level of production. A theory is that some elite HS recruits struggle as freshmen due to off-court distraction, which is exacerbated by celebrity status on campus, but that they clean up their act in a more professional environment.
-Quite a turnaround in your opinion of Aaron Gordon, I’d love to hear more about what you saw.
Good questions!
-I think Marcus Smart has quite a bit of offensive upside. All of the critiques of his offensive game would also apply to Dwyane Wade, and they have similar body types and skill sets. Wade had longer arms and perhaps a bit more burst, but given Smart’s intangibles (which are somewhat supported by his steal rate), I wouldn’t put any hard cap on his upside. He could be a great 2 way player.
-Nurkic reputedly has poor defensive IQ, but it seems to be due to lack of experience/repetitions. He has much better steal + block rates than Pek did, which speaks favorably for his instincts and ability to be better on that end. There is no guarantee that he does become better, but the mere possibility that he might is valuable.
-RSCI does well on a macro level because they rated guys like LeBron, Durant, Brow, etc highly. But a ton of draft busts were also highly rated RSCI guys who underwhelmed in college, and I think in general people are too slow to cool on these types. If you sort by one metric whether it be RSCI rankings or NCAA statistics, you will never get the full picture. In due time, Wiggins may become a cautionary tale for over-investing in recruiting rankings.
IMO a more interesting analysis would be comparing the RSCI guys who graded favorably statistically in college vs. the highly rated recruits who didn’t. I imagine that the former sample would be rife with stars and the latter would have quite a few busts.
-There were a number of things that shifted my perception of Gordon.
1) I started watching more Arizona and it made me comfortable that his defense is underrated by his steal and block totals.
2) His stats improved significantly down the stretch. He saw upticks in steals, blocks, assists, and 3p%. His 3’s remain a small sample, but any inkling of hope for his shot is quite valuable given his other strengths.
3) I didn’t like his propensity to take long 2’s, but I started leaning toward that being more of a Sean Miller problem than an Aaron Gordon problem since the entire team launches from midrange.
Thanks for the reply, I think you’re on the money. Look forward to seeing how these guys pan out, especially if Wiggins goes #1 it could be an epic fail.
Hi there. Been enjoying a lot of your stuff of late. I was wondering if you had any thoughts on Cameron Bairstow, who I consider a bit of a sleeper in this draft. Appreciate that age is a bit of an issue, but he had a solid year, proved himself a versatile offensive player and I thought he had a strong combine on both measurements and the athletic drills. Seems a good character guy, high BBIQ , has a ready made model for success in Luis Scola…why no love on the big boards? Thanks.
Hi there. Been enjoying your draft analysis so far. Thanks for your insights.
I was wondering if you had any thoughts on Cameron Bairstow, who I think is a bit of a sleeper but is clearly flying well under the radar. Appreciate age is a bit of an issue, but he showed a versatile offensive game last season, and had a strong combine in terms of both measurements and the drills (given athleticism would be another of his concerns). Good character guy, high BBIQ, a ready made model for success in Luis Scola…yet no love on the boards. Would love to hear your thoughts on why. Thanks.
Luis Scola is one of my least favorite players in the NBA. The chuck from mid-range and don’t play defense skill set is not that useful in the modern NBA.
Bairstow barely misses the cut for my top 80, he’s somewhere in the 81-100 range. But stats don’t love him, scouts don’t love, he’s in a meh mold, and he’s really old so he’s a long shot to become something. He bloomed just a bit too late to become a serious draft prospect.
Interesting. I think Bairstow plays some D, and I think we’ve got enough evidence to suggest that bigs with good midrange games can really open up offences (personally I think Scola is a great situational play even now). The late bloomer point is well made though. A draft profile is definitely something you build over a period of years and he just hasn’t done that effectively. Being a late bloomer is costing him on the big boards. Could be the scouts are right and there isn’t much more development to come here. Or it could be a smart team in the second round picks up a guy who slips through a lot of the scouting communities traditional filters. Food for thought.
Thanks for the response (sorry for the double post too – just some old fashioned incompetence from me there when my original post disappeared).
Well it sounds like he spends all of his time in the weight room which is a good sign. But age is highly predictive, and players who are already 23 generally don’t have a ton of development left.
I didn’t watch enough New Mexico to have an opinion on his college D, but based on his physical profile and his steal/block rates he will likely be below average vs. NBA competition. Playing good defense at the NBA level is not an easy task for players with his physical tools.