Monthly Archives: May 2018

Is Trae Young Getting Overhyped?

24 Thursday May 2018

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Everybody loves Trae Young, as he is a skill wizard that reminisces of Steph Curry.

But he is not Steph, and I have expressed this sentiment in a data driven analysis of his team’s performance. But since not everybody is into data, let’s key in on qualitative factors that are being overlooked:

1) He is really, really small

Trae measured just 6’1.75″ in shoes with a 6’3″ wingspan at the combine. This is shorter than Steve Nash, Steph Curry, and Chauncey Billups who are all listed at 6’3″.

The vast majority of good players listed at 6’2″ or less have had elite athleticism on their side. Chris Paul, Kemba Walker, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, Tony Parker, and Ty Lawson were all described as elite athletes in pre-draft scouting reports at DraftExpress.

Trae may have underrated quickness and speed, but nobody believes it is top shelf. He is in a physical tier where nobody has been elite.

The only player who *maybe* had similar physical limitations and excelled was John Stockton. He is before my time, and I do not have a strong grasp on his athleticism. But for the sake of argument we will say he is physically similar to Trae. Except there is one key difference

2) Trae’s Defense Is Awful

John Stockton was a 5 time NBA all-defense selection. If you are 6’1″ without freakish athleticism, you need to make a positive impact in every possible way to sum to elite production. And Trae is downright abysmal on defense, where it is not clear that he even cares to get stops.

Oklahoma’s defense declined from 39th best to 85th best returning almost everybody after adding Trae. He rates as by far the worst defensive guard in the class via Jacob Goldstein’s PIPM metric, and his defense is visibly terrible in this scouting video created by @GuillaumeBInfos.

He is probably going to be the worst defensive player in the NBA as a rookie, and there is not a ton of room for improvement. His physical profile makes his defense risky enough even with good effort, and he has such a low starting point it is hard to see him ever becoming decent on this end.

If Trae is 3 or 4 points worse than Stockton or Curry on D, that puts a ton of pressure on his offense to merely achieve goodness, let alone greatness.

3) Will he perform better in a smaller role with less of an offensive burden?

He played AAU with the Porter bros Michael and Jontay, and did not show clearly better efficiency in a more limited offensive role. He also shot poorly playing for Team USA in FIBA u18 championship in 2016, as well as the Nike Global Challenge in 2015.

There is some possibility that he lacks the basketball IQ to be an efficient scorer in a medium usage role. He appears to be an extremely skilled chucker who was able to succeed early in his Oklahoma career when he was hot against soft defenses.

Maybe he can learn to be more efficient over time, but based on current information there is limited reason for optimism.

4) Trae fell off a cliff vs better defenses

Most of statistical goodness came against soft defenses. When he faced good defenses his production fell off a cliff. Compare Trae’s per 40 stats vs. top 60 defenses to Steph Curry’s 5 career NCAA tournament games:

Pts eFG% AST TOV Opp DRtg
Steph 33.6 56.3% 3.6 1.9 89.5
Trae 27.7 47.7% 7.9 6.3 95.8

People commonly lament the attention Trae drew from defenses, but Steph got the same attention vs much tougher defenses in the tournament and he shined.

These splits were a signal that Steph had some cerebral advantage to translate his goodness to higher levels while Trae did the opposite. It would be a good idea to stop making this comp forever.

5) Is Trae a High IQ Passer?

Trae has excellent vision, and Chris Stone made a reasonable case that he made a positive effect on his teammates. But the vast majority on his effect came on Brady Manek– a 3* recruit who was much better than expected and happened to specialize in offense. Once you give most of the credit for Manek’s performance to Manek, Trae’s effect on his teammates is only slightly positive.

When you factor in his high turnover rate, and his inability to punish defenses for the insane attention he saw, it’s hard to argue that Trae is an elite passing prospect.

Trae’s passing was good this year, and he could eventually blossom into great. But there is no clear signal that he is a historically elite passer (as I argued for Lonzo Ball last year).

If Trae merely becomes an 85th percentile passing point guard in the NBA, he will likely stick in the league. But it will not be enough to be great in spite of his disadvantages. He needs to be a crazy outlier in this regard, and the early signals say that he is probably not.

6) Is He Actually An Elite Shooter?

Trae has never shot above 36% from 3 at any level. Just in case you needed another reason to know why it is a bad idea to compare him to a player who makes 44% of his NBA 3’s at a high volume.

Part of this is due to awful shot selection and poor size, and he has some non-zero chance of becoming the 2nd best shooter in NBA history. But he has a long way to go, and his shooting may always be undermined by his inability to get clean looks.

7) Does Trae deserve excuses?

It’s amazing how commonly people excuse Trae’s flaws by explaining how bad his teammates were and how many triple teams he saw.

These type of excuses should be reserved for an elite talent like DeAndre Ayton who is so physically gifted that he has significant margin of error for his NBA success.

Trae Young is in a physical tier where almost nobody succeeds in the NBA and he needs to be essentially *perfect* to be great. Yet he has the following flaws:

–Doesn’t play defense
–Awful shot selection
–No history of efficient play
–Struggles to get shot off against tough opponents
–No clear positive effect on his teammates’ performance

His skill and vision is rare enough such that he can nevertheless find an NBA niche. But does he actually sound like a player that is an intelligent gamble in the high lottery?

Bottom Line

I don’t see a path to him sniffing Steph Curry’s level of goodness. Maybe he can become a low end all-star like the Dallas version of Steve Nash, but he needs a ton to go right for that to happen. If he falls short of Nash, he is going to be a difficult fit into a good starting lineup. He can be a bench microwave, but as lead guard his team will have limited playoff upside.

The realistic upside comp for him is Isaiah Thomas. IT drew some MVP chatter for his box score stats in Boston, but ultimately did not help the offense drastically more than he hurt the defense, translated poorly to the playoffs, and the Celtics became a better team after parting ways with him. That is not a player worth targeting in the lottery– Thomas slid to last pick in the draft for good reason.

In reality, Trae will likely be worse than Thomas. As special as his vision and skill are, he has even more qualities that are especially bad to drag them down.

He has such a weird and polarized profile, it is difficult to say exactly where he should rate. He has some non-trivial value. But there is currently too much wishful thinking that he may be Steph, and I would bet that anybody who drafts him in the top 10 will be disappointed with the result.

Is Trae Young the Next Stephen Curry?

13 Sunday May 2018

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Trae Young has gained immense hype as an outlier PG, as he posted monster freshman stats for Oklahoma averaging 27 points and 9 assists. He thrives on his excellent shooting, as he made 3.7 three pointers per game and backed it up with 86% FT.

His main weakness is poor physical tools, as he is just 6’2″ with a 6’4″ wingspan and limited athleticism. But Stephen Curry has overcome similar physical limitations, so it’s worth considering whether Trae has similar upside before writing him off.

What If He’s Not Steph?

There isn’t a strong middle ground for small and unathletic players to succeed as decent starters when they fall short of being an elite outlier. After Steph the next best diminutive non-athletes currently are bench players such as Tyus Jones, Shabazz Napier, and Trey Burke.

Steve Nash provides another example of an elite past PG, but him and Steph are rare breeds. They establish that a small non-athlete can be an MVP candidate if he is either

1) The best shooter of all time with elite passing and IQ or
2) The best passer of all time with elite shooting and IQ

Anything less than that, and you are probably a bench player. It’s a steep curve with little margin for error.

Golden State Warriors v Phoenix Suns

Trae and the Sooners

This past season Oklahoma returned all top 9 rotation players but PG’s Jordan Woodard and Darrion Strong-Moore. Overall they returned 79% of their minutes that rated comparatively well statistically, as 81% of their win shares and 80% of their minute weighted BPM came back.

The only significant additions were Trae Young and Brady Manek. You would expect that replacing mediocre PG minutes with elite ones while everybody else gained experience would catapult the Sooners forward. But they only gently crept up the standings.

The Sooners improved by 7.2 pts/100 on defense, but gave most of it back by regressing 4.6 pts/100 on defense. Overall they took a small step forward as they progressed from the #65 kenpom team to #48.

In spite of Trae crushing individual expectations, the Sooners underachieved pre-season expectations with every stat model and poll projecting them top 40.

When individual and team success misalign like this, it’s a flag to take the individual stats with a major grain of salt. Especially for a player with his monster assist rate, it is alarming that he may not have helped the team with his passing as much as he hurt it with his defense.

Big 12 Swooners

Everything was peachy for Trae entering January. He was on fire and so were the Sooners at 12-1 with the #13 kenpom rank. But they had yet to face a single top 80 defense, and unfortunately 16 of their 19 remaining games came against top 60 defenses.

Over the second half of the season, Trae came crashing to earth and so did Oklahoma. His per 40 minute splits tell the story:

Pts Ast TOV
vs non-Top 80 D 35.1 12.3 5.3
vs Top 60 D 27.7 7.9 6.3

This is ugly. Notably his assist rate fell off a cliff against better defenses. Trae has complained about seeing frequent double teams, but he could have done a better job of punishing them with his passing.

eFG% 3PA 3P%
vs non-Top 80 D 56.6% 12.6 39.7%
vs Top 60 D 47.7% 10.7 32.7%

Further, his shotmaking took a major hit against better opponents. He faced bigger defensive players, struggled to get his shot off, and forced low quality attempts that often missed. This is a major concern in the NBA, as most 6’5″ pros can easily stay in front him and tightly contest his shot.

Everybody wants to throw Trae’s teammates under the bus, but Oklahoma was 2.3 pts per 100 better in conference play in ’16-17 when the same players were less experienced than they were in ’17-18 with Trae.

Maybe we should focus less on Trae’s teammates being bad, and instead consider the possibility that Trae is the bad Sooner who will be bad in the NBA later.

Bottom Line

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In spite of his many flags, there is some hope for Trae. His individual stats cannot be completely ignored, as he has a rare combination of shotmaking ability and vision. He could become a very good pro if his decision making rapidly improves over time and he isn’t too bad on D.

But this is a long-shot gamble. He will likely be bad defensively, he will have trouble getting past most NBA defensive players, he will have trouble getting his shot off, and even though he sees the floor well he is not currently a high IQ passer.

He is such an outlier that it is fair to give him non-zero all-star equity. But this is a low % outcome, and there aren’t many cases where he falls short and is still useful.

Realistic Comps

The next tier of little guy after Nash and Curry includes Isaiah Thomas who a two time all-star. But he was a huge liability on defense, it’s hard to build an elite offense around him, and his performance fell off a cliff in the playoffs. After the Celtics traded him, he went from a likely max contract to a bench player who may never start again. This is why he slid to #60 in the draft– it only requires a small decline for his type to go from all-star to backup.

Trae has decent odds of being similar to IT. This outcome is better than nothing, but it’s such a difficult piece to fit into an elite contender, I would aim higher in the lottery.

And most of the time Trae will fall short of IT and be a Trey Burke or JJ Barea bench PG, which makes him far too risky to justify a top 5 selection. He is an underdog to be as good as Tyus Jones.

It’s fine to gamble on Young’s super-powered skill level working out in the back end of the lottery. But I prefer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the best PG in the class, as he has a higher IQ, higher ceiling, and higher floor.

We Need to Talk about Jaren

11 Friday May 2018

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Jaren Jackson Jr. is currently rated as the #4 prospect by ESPN. He is perceived as more of an elite role player than a true star with the upside of Luka Doncic or DeAndre Ayton, so let’s explore the validity of this narrative.

Physical Profile

JJJ measured 6’10” with a 7’4″ wingspan at Nike Hoop Summit at age 17, and he complements his strong dimensions with great mobility and athleticism. He is currently a bit skinny, but he has a nice frame that should fill out in time.

The only real flaw with his tools is that he’s not elite athletically, as he is more explosive in space than in traffic. But for an elite shot blocker, he covers a ton of ground defensively.

JJJ has a unique ability to both protect the rim and switch onto the perimeter. His physical profile is overall excellent, as it gives him endless defensive upside.

Skill Level

It’s difficult to predict NBA shooting from a small sample of stats, but JJJ’s shooting indicators are excellent for an 18 year old big. He shot 40% from 3 and 80% FT in a smallish NCAA sample and 40% on 84 3PA pre-NCAA according to DraftExpress (RIP).

His form is a slightly awkward push shot so these percentages should be taken with a grain of salt. But he also has a reasonably quick release, and there is some chance that he is a legitimately good shooter.

It remains to be seen how well he shoots from NBA 3 range.  But for a big with JJJ’s tools, having even a serviceable shot is highly valuable.

Further, he shows budding ball skills as he can attack from the perimeter off the dribble with surprising shiftiness and a good first step. He is still raw and often turned it over when he tried to attack, but his slashing potential is elite for an 18 year old big.

It’s hard to predict where his skill level will peak on the scale of decent to great, but he has rare skill potential for a toolsy, defensive minded big.

IQ and Instincts

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This past season Michigan State was nearly impossible to score on inside the arc, posting by far the best defensive 2P% in the NCAA. Here’s how they compared to stingiest interiors in kenpom’s database going back to 2002:

Year Team Def 2P% NCAA Avg Difference
2018 Michigan St. 38.4% 50.0% 11.6%
2015 Texas 37.7% 47.8% 10.1%
2017 UCF 39.9% 49.3% 9.4%
2004 Uconn 38.7% 48.0% 9.3%
2014 UC Irvine 39.2% 48.5% 9.3%

Texas boasted Myles Turner and fringe big prospects Cam Ridley, Prince Ibeh, and Jonathan Holmes. UCF and UC Irvine each had a 7’6″ big against mid-major schedules.  UConn had four (!!!) first round bigs: Emeka Okafor, Charlie Villanueva, Josh Boone, Hilton Armstrong.

All of these past outliers had some unique interior presence(s), and Michigan State is by far the biggest outlier of the bunch. Their performance can in part be attributed to a wealth of quality bigs and never gambling for turnovers, but JJJ was the clear star of the show accounting for 42% of the team’s blocks. And unlike these other defenses being anchored largely by giant statues, JJJ is actually able to defend the perimeter as he led his team in steal rate.

Much of his dominance was due to his his tremendous close out speed, but these indicators are decisively positive indicators for his IQ. He has sharp instincts, excellent timing on blocks, and appears to be an intelligent defensive player who rarely yielded quality shot attempts near the rim.

Given that individual stats, team stats, and the eye test all paint a favorable picture for JJJ, optimism for his basketball IQ is warranted. But he was not perfect, as he was foul prone on defense and turnover prone on offense. And his rebound rate was slightly underwhelming, so there is no guarantee that he is cerebrally elite.

Perhaps the fouls and turnovers are a product of youth that will become a distant memory with more experience, or maybe they indicate some flaw that will never fully go away. Maybe the rebounds were a product of playing in a supersized lineup with a not yet developed frame, or maybe his toughness and motor are slightly lacking. These questions are difficult to answer with any confidence.

To some extent we are guessing how intelligent and instinctual a player is based on limited information. This is a major part of the variance in draft predictions. But in JJJ’s case we have a unique clue to work with: his father’s NBA career

Chip Off the Old Block?

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Jaren Jackson Sr. didn’t even start in his first three seasons at Georgetown, averaging 7, 11, and 18 minutes per game respectively. As a senior he finally averaged 27 minutes and cracked double digit scoring for the first time to finish his 4 year career with averages of 16.5 minutes, 7.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.2 assists.

Then he unsurprisingly went undrafted, and did not play more than garbage minutes in his first 7 NBA seasons. At age 29, he finally earned his first consistent rotation role playing 15 mins/game for Washington.

Then Jackson moved on to San Antonio where he became a part-time starter for  3 years, and played a significant role in their 1999 championship run. He brought almost nothing to the table outside of shooting and defense, but he did so effectively, as he rated as slightly positive by both BPM and RAPM metrics as one of the original 3 + D role players.

At 6’4″ with limited athleticism and skill, Jackson is one of the least talented players to ever become useful in the NBA. He couldn’t get real minutes in college, couldn’t get drafted, and couldn’t get real NBA minutes for 7 years, but he nevertheless found a way to positively contribute to a champion.

Jaren Sr. must have had subtle but significant cerebral and intangible advantages that the basketball world failed to discern until he crossed paths with Gregg Popovich.

What Does This Mean For Jaren Jr.?

While there is no guarantee that Jaren Jr. shares these advantages, he should be considered more likely than average to have the overachiever gene. After all, 50% of his genetics came from a extreme overachiever at professional basketball. And the other half of his genes came from a basketball mom, making him 7″ taller, more athletic, and more skilled than his dad.

Even without considering his father’s career, JJJ is legitimate candidate for #1 overall. If this point has no bearing on his career, he can easily be a perennial all-star similar to Chris Bosh. And if he overachieves as much as his father did, he has potential to be a Kevin Garnett level generational star.

It’s difficult to say exactly how much weight should be given to Jaren Sr’s career, but it is a nice cherry on top of a highly attractive profile. If it carries any serious gravity, the payoff for drafting JJJ will be immense.

I believe it is correct to place some positive skew on JJJ’s range of outcomes based on his genetics. If nothing else it is yet another positive point to add to the endless list of reasons to be optimistic for his NBA future.

Bottom Line

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JJJ is not excellent athletically like Ayton nor is he skilled as Doncic, but he has a nice blend of both on top of possibly elite IQ and intangibles. His talent level is excellent and highly underrated.

It makes sense that he would be underrated, as IQ and youth are commonly overlooked and he is among the youngest and smartest players in this draft.

And to cap it off he doesn’t have any frightening warts. His shooting form is slightly funky, and there is some dependence on him progressing his somewhat raw skills at a reasonable rate. But compare that with the flaws of other recent elite prospects

DeAndre Ayton– Appears to be completely lost on defense
Luka Doncic– Lacks burst + shake to get past defense, will rely heavily on shotmaking as pro
Lonzo Ball— Major flags in his handling and shooting for a guard who is non-elite athlete
Markelle Fultz— Shaky FT% and his NCAA team was awful
Ben Simmons— Broken shot, awful NCAA team, intangible flags
Karl-Anthony Towns— Too slow to be good defensively
Joel Embiid— Major health concerns. Also late basketball starting age may inhibit his ability to score efficiently as a pro the same way it is difficult to learn a second language if you do not start as a child

JJJ arguably has the least off-putting warts of the group. And his team defense and genetics are compelling reasons to be optimistic for his NBA upside. From almost every angle of analysis, he is dripping with goodness.

Ultimately I rate Jaren Jackson Jr. as the best prospect of the past 6 years. It’s not by a big margin, as Luka Doncic could also be argued to be the best recent prospect and Ayton is not that far behind either.  But JJJ at least belongs in the #1 conversation, and letting him slide out of the top 3 would be nothing short of a historic draft blunder.

2018 Big Board

05 Saturday May 2018

Posted by in NCAA

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I haven’t written much this year, so I am going to jam all of my takes into a giant mega-post. Note this list is missing every international prospect except for Doncic and Okobo because those are the only internationals I have looked at.

Missed the Cut

Khyri Thomas (#23 ESPN)

Khyri Thomas is a consensus first rounder as some project him to be an Avery Bradley-esque 3 + D prospect.

The first problem is Avery Bradley is not that good, and teams should aim for higher upside in round 1. The other problem is that even this may be optimistic for Khyri– Bradley was an elite athlete who was #3 overall recruit, whereas Khyri is a 2* who received only low major offers outside of Creighton.

It’s easy to see why Khyri was not coveted as a recruit. In spite of being 6’3″, he is a non-athlete non-creator. He mustered a modest 21% usage as an old junior with an inordinate 38% of his points coming in transition– a means of production which is not predictive of NBA success.

He could not run the pick and roll to save his life, posting just 0.6 PPP for 23rd percentile as per synergy as a junior. And this was actually an improvement over his 0.57 PPP as a sophomore. He turns 22 before the draft, and it’s hard to imagine that a 6’3″ player who is this inept at the pick and roll at his age providing NBA value.

And it’s not even like he’s a great shooter. He made 40.6% of his NCAA 3P, but that was with a somewhat low rate of attempts and 72% career FT. He will not make any special impact as an NBA shooter, and there is no guarantee that he is even above average.

His defense has some hope, as he has long arms, good steal and rebound numbers, and won Big East DPOY twice. But the potential defensive impact for a 6’3″ player is limited, and there is no guarantee Khyri is a positive on this end.

Ultimately Khyri has some hope of providing replacement level production, but is too limited offensively, athletically, and in height to have non-trivial value as a prospect.

Tyus Battle (#27 ESPN)

Why do people keep looking for mediocre Syracuse players to be draft sleepers? This happened when Malachi Richardson bizarrely was selected in the 1st round in 2016, and now ESPN has Battle projected #27 this year.

I am guessing there is some level of wishful thinking that a player will look great defensively once removed from the zone, but this has yet to happen for any player other than MCW. But Battle posted half the rebound rate of MCW in spite of being the same height, so he is a horrible bet to be anything other than lost on an NBA defense.

With a pedestrian offensive game to boot, it’s hard to see Battle providing value in the NBA.

Aaron Holiday (#19 ESPN)

If you are 6’1″ and can only defend one position poorly, you better have a special offensive repertoire to merit a 1st round pick.

Aaron Holiday has a completely pedestrian offensive game, so his hype train is bizarre. It may have something to do with his brother Jrue outperforming his #17 overall draft slot. But Jrue is 3 inches taller and significantly better at basketball, so the two cannot be compared.

Tier 5: Guys who almost may stick in the NBA, but aren’t special enough to get their own rank:

It’s really hard to differentiate #38 from #57. So here is a giant dump of players into the “maybe he sticks” tier

Udoka Azubuike
Jaylen Barford
Brian Bowen
Ky Bowman
Desonta Bradford
Bruce Brown
Jalen Brunson
Tony Carr
Jevon Carter
Gary Clark
Hamidou Diallo
Donte DiVincenzo
Trevon Duval
Bruno Fernando
Melvin Frazier
Devon Hall
Jaylen Hands
Chandler Hutchison
JP Macura
Charles Matthews
Ajdin Penava
Theo Pinson
Shamorie Ponds
Isaiah Reese
Jerome Robinson
Landry Shamet
Anfernee Simons
Omari Spellman
Gary Trent
Mo Wagner
PJ Washington
Kris Wilkes

Tier 4: Fliers

35. Vince Edwards
34. Alize Johnson
33. Kevin Hervey
32. Yante Maten

These are my favorite UDFA targets

Vince Edwards offers a good blend of passing and shooting for a 6’7″ player, and I am a bit surprised he wasn’t invited to the combine.

Johnson is a mobile 6’9″ PF who can pass, rebound, and maybe shoot.

Hervey is a prototypical stretch 4 at 6’9″ with a 7’3″ wingspan and the ability to pass, shoot, and rebound.

Yante is an incredibly intelligent player who was excellent defensively for Georgia and can rebound, pass, and shoot. He may be too slow and unathletic to translate his defense to the NBA at 6’8.5″, but his IQ gives him enough of a chance to be worth a flier.

31. Rawle Alkins
30. Lonnie Walker
29. Keita Bates-Diop
28. Shake Milton
27. Ethan Happ

Alkins has potential to be a decent 3 +D SG.

Walker fell flat as a freshman, but he is a 19 year old 5* recruit with good tools and frankly there isn’t much depth in this draft.

Keita Bates-Diop I don’t know why not stash him here.

Shake Milton also a why not. He lacks the athleticism and handling to be special, but could be a serviceable 3 + D.

Ethan Happ will likely be undone by his lack of athleticism and broken shot, but it cannot be ignored that he is a cerebrally gifted 6’9″ player with point center skills. He has special strengths for a non-lottery prospect, and should be valued as a real prospect in spite of his warts.

26. Isaiah Roby

Roby is a 6’7″ shotblocker with a glimmer of hope for perimeter defense and shooting ability. He could make for a late steal if he turns out well in these regards.

25. Elie Okobo

Okobo isn’t a freak physically, but he has pretty good length and athleticism for a point guard who can shoot. There are questions about whether he is cerebral enough to thrive as a pro, but he has enough upside to be worth a late 1st flier.

Tier 3: Solid prospects lacking elite upside

24. Jarred Vanderbilt

After a stellar Hoop Summit performance where he posted 19/10/3/2/2, Vanderbilt missed most of his freshman season with a foot injury. He was rusty in his first few games back, and then when he started to find his groove he re-injured his foot.

Vanderbilt’s appeal starts with his rebounding, as he posted a monster rebound rate. Here’s how it stacks up vs. past Kentucky freshman bigs

Player TRB% AST%
Jarred Vanderbilt 25.7 10.7
DeMarcus Cousins 22.5 9.2
Julius Randle 19.2 10
Anthony Davis 19 7.5
Karl-Anthony Towns 18.5 11.6
Nerlens Noel 17.4 9.5

It is probably a good idea to draft any Kentucky freshman who dominates the glass. And Vanderbilt easily had the highest rebound rate (albeit in a small sample), and the second highest assist rate behind KAT.

He isn’t as physically gifted as the other players in the table, but he’s 6’9″ and fairly athletic, and likely has some cerebral advantage to nevertheless be ultra productive. Given that he showed some scoring promise in the Hoop Summit and just turned 19, Vanderbilt clearly has a nice upside tail and is an exciting mystery box.

That said Vanderbilt has had a frightening amount of foot injuries for a player who just turned 19, so he also has plenty of downside. But he is a fascinating gamble for a player who is much more special than his draft hype implies.


23. Collin Sexton
22. Mitchell Robinson
21. Kevin Knox

This is the trio of talented young players all have some potential, but aren’t all the way there.

Sexton has an incredibly combination of coordination and explosiveness, making him an excellent isolation scorer. But his poor vision and dimensions make him a major liability with respect to passing and defense, and will always diminish his overall goodness.

MitchRob is big, athletic, and talented but has major intangibles flags, so who knows how to value him. Hassan Whiteside is a good comp for him.

Knox is super young and has a decent offensive skillset for a huge wing, but has a long way to go to become a good NBA player. That said I am interested to see how he develops as his frame fills out and he is freed from the shackles of John Calipari’s coaching.

20. Kenrich Williams

Kenrich offers everything you want in a 3 + D prospect. He is an excellent passer, rebounder, and team defender, and he can run the pick and roll in a pinch.

The only questions are about his actual 3 + D, as he shot 63% FT in college and may not be athletic enough to guard the perimeter in the NBA. But he has a decent chance to succeed at both, and this what makes him an excellent a 3 + D target.

Shooting and defense are hard to predict, so guys who are definitely good at other things and maybe good at 3 + D are better gambles than chasing the best 3 and best D. Which explains why I only have Mikal Bridges at #19 in spite of top 10 hype:

19. Mikal Bridges

Mikal’s NCAA 3P% (40%) and FT (84.5%) inspire promise for his shooting, while his steals, blocks, team success, and 7’2″ wingspan inspire promise for his defense.

But he was never reputed to be a great shooter, doesn’t have great form, and he lacks great strength, burst, and quickness on defense so it is easy to see him falling short of expectations in both areas.  If so, he will provide an awfully disappointing return on a top 10 pick, as he is not much of a creator, rebounder, or passer. And even if he can shoots and defends well, his upside is capped by limits in other areas.

Mikal clearly has a better shooting projection than Kenrich, but Kenrich’s superiority at everything else makes them similarly good prospects.

Is Mikal Ottomatically going to be a good pro?

Everybody loves to compare Mikal Bridges to Otto Porter, Rob Covington, and Danny Green with the hypothesis he is a solid bet to be on a similar level of goodness. The logic is that he mimicked their NBA role to be one of the most effective players in the NCAA, thus he should seamlessly translate to the same role as a pro.

This logic is dubious, as excellent NCAA play should be a pre-requisite for a 21 year old to be considered in round 1 at all. To deserve top 10 consideration, elite NCAA play at that age isn’t enough.

For comparison, he was the same age as a freshman as Otto was as a sophomore. As a quick and simple comparison, let’s see how the players fared in terms of points, rebounds, and assists per 40 minutes at the same age:

Points Rebs Assists
Otto 18.3 8.5 3.1
Mikal 12.5 6.3 1.7

Otto clearly waffle crushes Mikal, which is why stat models and scouts alike rated him as an elite prospect. It’s simply not realistic to comp Mikal to a player who was THAT far ahead of him at the same age. Even if they seem similar stylistically, Otto is flat out better at basketball.

Now let’s shift focus to more realistic comps such as Danny Green and Robert Covington, comparing career per 40 min samples for the trio:

Points Rebs Assists Blocks
Green 18.9 8.2 3.5 2.1
RobCov 19.8 9.9 1.6 1.7
Mikal 16.5 6.5 2.3 1.3

This is closer, but it is still clear that Mikal is behind.

Both Green + RobCov have superior rebounds and blocks to suggest nuanced physical advantages over Mikal. They also scored more, and superior creation may have subtle impact on their NBA success even in low usage roles. RobCov offers Mikal hope as a rare example of a good NBA defensive player with a low assist rate, but overall it’s clear that his natural talent lags behind this duo as well.

Essentially Mikal’s NCAA success came from limiting his mistakes and scoring efficiently playing in an elite offensive system for an elite coach. It is plausible that this translates to a useful NBA player, but it also may not. His weaknesses will be more frequently exposed, and his easy opportunities will dry up, and even if he does succeed it is unlikely to be to the same magnitude as the aforementioned trio.

While Mikal has *some* chance of achieving an Otto/RobCov/Green level of goodness, everybody in the lottery has some chance of reaching a greater upside.

Ultimately Bridges’s hype is based on the notion that he will mimic RobCov and Otto’s production as a pro, as their success in spite of low usage makes their success seem attainable. In reality it is not, as they are special in ways that Mikal and most other 3 +D prospects are not. He’s a solid 3 + D prospect in the back end of round 1, but he isn’t special enough to justify the top 10 hype.

18. Jacob Evans
17. Kevin Huerter

These 3 + D prospects also are much better passers than Mikal, and on a similar tier in spite of much less hype. Along with Kenrich, there are quite a few 3 + D players who should be valued similarly to Mikal that will be available much later in the draft.

Evans is a high IQ wing who does a bit of everything. He can be a good role player, but doesn’t have the shake or athleticism to have much upside beyond 3 + D.

Huerter is only 19 with a quick release and good lateral movement at 6’7″ gives him switchability potential. He has the most upside of the non-lotto 3 + D tier as he is strikingly similar to Klay Thompson.

16. Robert Williams

Robert Williams is long, athletic and statistically productive, but it seems like something is missing with him. His team defense was worse with him on the floor, and it’s a concern that he’s just an enticing talent who will never put it all together.

That said his talent is enticing, so it feels wrong to be totally out on him. He is a slippery prospect to evaluate, and it’s hard to know what to expect.

Tier 2: Possible All-Stars

This tier is really deep and really good, and can be re-shuffled to almost any order. I don’t see a huge difference between #15 and #4

15. DeAnthony Melton

Melton’s freshman season was a statistical doppelganger for that of Jrue Holiday.

There is no guarantee that his offense develops as well as Jrue did, but if so he can be special. He’s young, long, and athletic with exceptional vision and instincts. And if nothing else he can be useful as a defensive specialist.

14. Troy Brown

Brown has ideal role player traits for the modern NBA, as he is 6’7″ with a 6’11” wingspan with a good frame and the quickness to match up with guards on the perimeter. He has elite switching potential to defend 1-4, and he is also a strong rebounder and passer.

The big question is whether he can score. He was inefficient as a freshman, as he was turnover prone and only shot 29% from 3. But he has decent handling + shake, and 74% FT while only being 18 on draft night. There is hope that he develops well on this end. If so, he has star potential as a versatile wing who can do it all.

Or maybe he is a disaster on offense and does not amount to much, but his elite role player potential with sneaky star upside makes him worth stomaching that risk.

13. Josh Okogie

I have written about Okogie, and I am a firm believer in his goodness. Physically he is surprisingly switchable for a 6’4″ player due to monster 7’0″ length, a strong frame, and good athleticism and quickness. And his elite motor makes him a good bet to apply these tools effectively on D.

Offensively his game is a bit raw, but he is rapidly developing into a quality shooter and he is a good passer with a passable handle. He still struggles to finish near the rim, but he has a nice first step and if his handling and finishing improve he can be good offensively.

Okogie has good odds of becoming a Marcus Smart type with more 3 and less D, and he has plenty of potential to be more.

12. Michael Porter Jr.

It may be unfair to rank MPJ this low as he only played 2 NCAA games late in the season, and he posted great AAU stats as the #2 RSCI and had #1 overall hype entering the season. But RSCI has been on an extended streak of missing on top 3 guys, and MPJ showed some serious bust risk in the Hoop Summit as he reminesced of a hybrid of Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins.

For a player whose primary strength is scoring, Porter is not that good at creating quality attempts vs halfcourt defense. He’s not that explosive or shifty, and looks awkward navigating traffic. He nevertheless padded his Hoop Summit box score with breakaway layups + dunks, and this was likely a significant portion of his AAU production as well.

He cannot be firmly judged based on two NCAA games against good defenses after missing almost all of the season with injury, but he looked legitimately awful in those two games. He badly struggled to create quality shots off the dribble, and ended up settled for difficult jump shots that mostly bricked.

Given his one dimensional skillset, translation flags, and injury concerns, disappointment almost feels inevitable with Porter. But his talent cannot be completely ignored, and a Carmelo Anthony or LaMarcus Aldridge level outcome is firmly within his range. And if he hits the upper bound of his shooting potential, maybe he will be even more.

It’s possible I am underrating him at this slot, but he has so many flags and the other prospects in this tier are so good that placing him at #12 is not going out on a major limb.

11. Jontay Porter

It is really mindblowing that Jontay is brothers with Michael. They are completely opposite, as Michael is a heroball chucker who lives for buckets, and Jontay is the ultimate role player who is elite at everything but scoring.

Jontay is currently projected as a 2nd rounder (#36 ESPN) because he is a plodding big in a world where slow bigs are going extinct. This puts a dent in his stock to be sure, but he is too skilled at shooting and passing for the youngest player in the draft to be written off based on this alone. He is very similar to Nikola Jokic who slid to the 2nd round because of being a slow big, and this comp alone should be enough to establish Jontay as a lottery value.

10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

After I wrote a glowing review of Shai, he massively disappointed vs Kansas State, as he could not get past their guards and was roasted by Barry Brown for the bucket that ended Kentucky’s season.

After that performance it is hard to be convinced Shai is bound for NBA greatness, but I remain highly intrigued by what he has to offer. He has great PG dimensions and an elite euro-step to atone for his athletic deficiencies. He has a good feel for the game and while there are questions regarding his shooting, defense, and creation, there are enough possible answers to give him sneaky upside.

Most of the time he will be similar to Dejounte Murray with more offense and less defense.

9. Mo Bamba

Bamba is not that athletic, coordinated, cerebral, skilled, or really useful in any way outside of having a monster 7’9″ wingspan and standing reach. My eyes were really not fond of him, except he made use of his elite reach to post a statistically productive senior year, cleaning up with blocks, rebounds, and dunks.

He has recently shown an improved shooting form, and while there is little evidence that he will be a decent NBA shooter, it is nice to know he is at least working hard toward that goal. If his shooting develops better than expected, it’s easy to see him becoming a valuable pro.

I could see Bamba working out really well or really poorly. He is one of the tougher players in the draft to peg.

 

8. Trae Young

Trae Young is an outlier. His skill level is off the charts, and with monster scoring, shooting, and assist totals as a freshman, he has been rampantly compared to Stephen Curry. Let’s take a look at their freshman shooting stats (pace adjusted per 40):

3P 3PA 3P% FT%
Steph 4.7 11.4 40.8% 85.5%
Trae 4.0 11.0 36.0% 86.1%

This is really close. Trae had almost as many 3PA, and his lower 3P% could be due in part to bad luck in light of his elite FT%. Let’s move on to steal, block, and rebound rates:

ORB% DRB% STL% BLK%
Steph 2.6 12.8 3.6 1.0
Trae 1.3 9.9 2.5 0.7

This is where the comp falls apart. The two players have similar physical profiles, but Steph being superior across the board implies some subtle physical advantage and/or cerebral superiority.

My take is that Steph is in another league cerebrally. This manifests in him being surprisingly decent defensively as well as consistently finding space to get off quality shots in spite of his physical deficiencies and immense defensive attention.

With this in mind, I do not believe Trae’s 3P% was due to bad luck whatsoever. He was on fire during Oklahoma’s soft portion of the schedule, and then against Big 12 play he was often shut down by taller wings. He lacked the explosion to blow past them, and often settled for deep, contested 3’s. It is not surprising that he went through a major shooting slump because he was chucking low quality attempts.

Curry has the most outlier combination of shooting accuracy in fast release in NBA history, and it is unrealistic to project anybody to match it. And even if Trae is a similar outlier, he will likely be a much worse defensive player who struggles to find space offensively, and it is really difficult to see him ever sniffing Curry’s overall level of goodness.

Is Trae an Elite Passer?

If there is a path to greatness, it will come through his passing. Young has excellent vision and posted a much higher NCAA assist rate than Curry. There is some scenario where he has a Steve Nash level impact with his passing on top of almost Curry level shooting, which is why he belongs in the top 10.

But Steve Nash is a one of a kind player, and this scenario is the pinnacle of optimism for Young. In spite of returning almost everybody from last season, Oklahoma barely improved and under-performed preseason statistical projections. Common narratives will blame this on Trae’s underwhelming teammates, but the same teammates were not that much worse with a year’s less experience and Jordan Woodard (pretty good) + Darrion Strong-Moore (pretty bad) splitting PG minutes.

In spite of excellent vision, Young seems to be lacking high end IQ and decision making ability. Perhaps these improve over time, but for a player with his physical deficiencies there are too many worrisome signals to be too optimistic. He has an elite skill level to be sure, but his instincts appear to be merely good but not great, and this creates significant downside risk.

Young has a weird + polarized profile, and it makes him extremely difficult to predict. I lean toward the side of pessimism, but there is clearly enough unique goodness to amount to a highly valuable NBA player. I’m not comfortable dropping him out of the top 10, but I believe it would be a reach to draft him top 5.

7. Miles Bridges

Miles fits the 3 + D archetype perfectly, as his strength, athleticism, passing, rebounding, and shooting suggest that he will be a versatile role player in the NBA. His dimensions are too limited for him to be a perfect 4, but he nevertheless may have the strength and hops to succeed in that role defensively.

As a bonus, his burst and shake give him creation upside and all-star potential. Versatile role playing wings are valuable enough on their own, and when they come with a nice upside tail it is correct to draft them early and ask questions later.

6. Wendell Carter Jr.

Carter is a tough prospect to rank. To some extent he is a plodding big in a world where plodding bigs are rapidly dying. But on the flipside, his mobility is not that bad and it is really his only weakness. Meanwhile he can pass, rebound, shoot, score inside, block shots, and being good at that many things can easily add up to a good player. If he can adequately defend in space, he can be a mid-lottery steal.

It’s easy to see Carter having an Al Horford-ish career. While Horford is not the sexiest player in the modern era, he is still a valuable contributor and a great return on a mid-lotto pick. And there is wiggle room for WCJ to be better than Horford, so it’s hard to argue he does not belong in the front end of the lottery.

5. Marvin Bagley

Bagley is an awesome talent in the wrong mold for the modern NBA. He is an elite garbage man as his motor + athleticism make him an awesome rebounder and finisher, and his handle gives him some creation ability.

That said, he does not have the dimensions to protect the rim or the skill for the perimeter, not to mention that his perimeter defense is a major question mark. This leaves him in an awkward disposition. There is some scenario where he succeeds on the perimeter and you are left with a really unique and valuable player who can also function as a small 5.

But there is also a scenario where he’s a productive player who is an awkward fit with weaknesses that get exposed in the playoffs. Ultimately Bagley’s talent cannot be ignored and he should be valued highly, but his warts are enough to temper optimism from being extreme.

4. Zhaire Smith

Zhaire Smith came out of nowhere as a 3* recruit to have a monster freshman season and lead Texas Tech to their first elite 8 ever. The most shocking part of him flying under the radar is that he is a nuclear athlete, which rarely gets overlooked. But Zhaire was young for his class and raw offensively, and went unnoticed until late in his high school career.

He was still raw offensively for Texas Tech, playing a low usage role where he rarely attacked off the dribble and attempted a low volume of 3’s. But he was highly efficient in this role, as he posted an excellent eFG% and assist:TOV with 72% FT to give hope for his long term shooting ability. He statistically profiles as similar to Jae Crowder.

In terms of recruiting rank and physical profile, he is similar to Russell Westbrook. Westbrook also slid through the cracks as a 3* recruit due to being young and raw, and Zhaire is arguably the most explosive athlete in the draft since Russ. Westbrook carried a higher NCAA usage, but even after his sophomore year DraftExpress believed he had a poor handle.

It’s not clear how Zhaire’s handle compares to Russ at the same age, but there is no evidence it is drastically worse. What is clear is that Zhaire is more selective about the occasions on which he attacks and is much less mistake prone offensively. So he will likely not stretch his usage to a monster rate a la Westbrook, but there is plenty of potential for him to stretch his usage while also having the instincts to play efficiently.

It’s hard to envision exactly what Zhaire’s NBA role will look like. He could remain a Crowder-ish role player, or his athleticism could enable him to develop into a star scorer in spite of his current limits as a ball handler. But it’s so rare for a player with his combination of youth, efficient production, and athleticism to be anything other than a #1 pick, it’s not worth sweating this point. Once the tanking prizes are all off the board, I believe it is correct to take Zhaire and see what happens.

Tier 1: Tanking Prizes

3. DeAndre Ayton

Ayton is ESPN’s favorite to be the #1 pick, but draft twitter is less enthusiastic bemoaning his poor defensive instincts as he posted underwhelming steals and blocks for a disappointing Arizona defense.

The truth likely falls somewhere in the middle. Let’s quickly compare him to a couple of past prospects who had similar instincts– DeAndre Jordan and Julius Randle:

Stl% Blk% ORB% DRB%
Ayton 1 6.1 13.5 28.2
Jordan 0.6 6.5 11.6 22.3
Randle 1 2.6 13.4 24.7

Jordan eventually developed into a good defensive NBA player in spite of this. Ayton may not be quite as athletic, but overall they have similar physical profiles and Ayton’s box score stats are slightly more impressive– so you cannot rule out the possibility that he is a significantly more skilled DAJ.

I was highly bearish on Julius Randle for his poor defensive instincts with mediocre PF dimensions, but he now has a chance of becoming a good NBA player in spite of this. If both Randle and Jordan can succeed and overachieve their draft position in spite of similar warts, Ayton likely can too.

Further, he has much stronger positives than DAJ + Randle without having worse flaws. He has a monster physical profile and was highly efficient in a high usage role offensively, posting a 98th percentile halfcourt efficiency per synergy. He had almost as many assists as turnovers, and showed traces of shooting ability with 73% FT and 12/35 3P.

In spite of his flaws, Ayton has monster upside and an easy path to all-star production. There’s some scenario where is merely a more athletic Nik Vucevic, which is disappointing but not bad enough to drop him any lower than #3.

His questionable instincts are enough to set him behind the creme de la creme prospects, but he has offsetting strengths to be a #1 or #2 overall pick in most drafts. The bottom line is that while he is flawed, DeAndre Ayton is an incredibly talented player and an elite prospect.

2. Luka Doncic

More than a year ago I pondered whether Doncic was a LeBron level prospect, offering a generational skill level on par with LeBron’s generational physical profile. Now after meditating on this point, I do not believe he can be valued similarly as LeBron definitely had a generational physical profile whereas Doncic only maybe has a generational skill level.

The chief concern with Doncic is that he is not particularly explosive or shifty, and will rely on outlier shotmaking to be an NBA star. Yet he is only making 30% of his three pointers so far this year, and if this is an issues that persists in the NBA he could disappoint similarly to D’Angelo Russell.

That said, Doncic still has a monster upside that cannot be ignored. He is a wizard with the ball and is also incredibly cerebral in a monster body that moves decently well, and if he develops into an elite shot maker he can be a special NBA player unlike anything we have seen thus far. I still rate him as a solidly good #1 overall pick, it’s just that he has the misfortune of sharing a draft with somebody who is just a bit more special

1. Jaren Jackson Jr.

This kid has special written all over him. He is one of the youngest players in the draft, and was arguably the best NCAA player this past season once you get past his minutes being limited by foul trouble and a risk averse coach.

The narrative is that he is an elite 3 + D role player who lacks the athleticism and scoring to be a true star. He is at minimum the former, as he shot 3’s and FT’s very well for a 18 year old big and has exceptional defensive potential.

JJJ offers elite length, mobility, and instincts to be incredibly versatile both defending the perimeter and protecting the rim, and he played a large role in Michigan State having the most outlier defensive 2P% in kenpom history dating back to 2002.

It’s worth noting that Jaren Jackson Sr. rated well by RAPM metrics and was a solid 3 + D player for the Spurs, and JJJ appears to have inherited his father’s basketball IQ with a 7″ height advantage and likely greater athleticism.

The really interesting point for JJJ is that he shows traces of ability to score off the dribble from the perimeter, as he has a surprisingly decent handle and ability to change directions for such a young big. He is still raw in this regard and often turned it over trying to attack, but if this develops well with age it could elevate him from elite 3 + D player to a traditional mold of superstar.

And he doesn’t have any real weaknesses. His turnover and foul rates were both high, but not particularly bad for an 18 year old big. His rebounding rate is mediocre, but he was sharing the floor with super sized lineups and this could improve as his frame fills out.

I just don’t see how JJJ ever fails. He’s going to be valuable no matter what, and has monster upside to boot. He should absolutely be valued on the same tier as KAT, Embiid, and Anthony Davis, and has clear potential to peak as the best of the bunch.

I will note that I’m not certain who should be valued higher between JJJ and Doncic– both are awesome prospects who are dripping with upside. But I feel a bit more certain in JJJ’s goodness, and if nothing else it’s worth considering the possibility that he deserves to be the #1 prospect in the draft, as it is a topic that has yet to receive fair consideration.