Now that I have gone on a binge of writing words, I will post an attempt at a big board with DX and ESPN rankings for comparison.
One note on this board is that it is extremely hard to have rankings that I feel good about while thin slicing these prospects. There is such a thin margin between being the #15 and #30 prospect in this draft, it is nearly impossible to correctly value the key nuances from afar. I can make a good effort with the available pieces and logical analysis, but the draft process entails loads of luck even with the thick slice. When thin slicing and filling in the blanks with guesswork, predicting NBA futures feels like a complete variance fest. But it is a fun variance fest, so here are my rankings:
rank | player | DX | ESPN |
1 | Dragan Bender | 3 | 5 |
2 | Brandon Ingram | 1 | 2 |
3 | Ben Simmons | 2 | 1 |
4 | Kris Dunn | 4 | 4 |
5 | Wade Baldwin | 15 | 16 |
6 | Jakob Poeltl | 8 | 12 |
7 | Chinanu Onuaku | 38 | 36 |
8 | Deyonta Davis | 10 | 15 |
9 | Furkan Korkmaz | 21 | 13 |
10 | Timothy Luwawu | 14 | 35 |
11 | Jaylen Brown | 5 | 8 |
12 | Jamal Murray | 6 | 3 |
13 | Henry Ellenson | 13 | 9 |
14 | Marquese Chriss | 11 | 6 |
15 | Zhou Qi | 28 | 71 |
16 | Brice Johnson | 30 | 34 |
17 | Domantas Sabonis | 17 | 17 |
18 | Dejounte Murray | 32 | 10 |
19 | DeAndre Bembry | 29 | 20 |
20 | Denzel Valentine | 12 | 22 |
21 | Buddy Hield | 7 | 7 |
22 | Taurean Prince | 18 | 37 |
23 | Ivica Zubac | 20 | 25 |
24 | Patrick McCaw | 31 | 27 |
25 | Demetrius Jackson | 16 | 26 |
26 | Cheick Diallo | 25 | 29 |
27 | Caris LeVert | 46 | 43 |
28 | Malik Beasley | 24 | 18 |
29 | Ante Zizic | 23 | 21 |
30 | Tyler Ulis | 19 | 23 |
31 | Gary Payton | 48 | 53 |
32 | Isaia Cordinier | 39 | 47 |
33 | Damian Jones | 22 | 24 |
34 | Skal Labissiere | 9 | 11 |
35 | Guerschon Yabusele | 34 | 30 |
36 | Diamond Stone | 33 | 32 |
37 | Troy Williams | 76 | 70 |
38 | Thon Maker | 40 | 19 |
39 | Stephen Zimmerman | 35 | 42 |
40 | Rade Zagorac | 36 | 51 |
41 | Juan Hernangomez | 26 | 31 |
42 | Jameel Warney | NR | 74 |
43 | Jake Layman | 49 | 52 |
44 | Isaiah Whitehead | 57 | 39 |
45 | Fred VanVleet | 85 | 60 |
46 | Robert Carter | 44 | 45 |
47 | Daniel Ochefu | NR | NR |
48 | Malcolm Brogdon | 41 | 38 |
49 | Kay Felder | 56 | 44 |
50 | Prince Ibeh | 51 | 88 |
87 | Malachi Richardson | 37 | 14 |
The top 3 are all below average #1 picks but above average for #3. They can be reasonably ranked in any order. It is probably a horrible idea to rank Dragan Bender #1 based on a small sample of FIBA stats and highlights of touchdown outlet passes, but I like to live life on the edge. He could be a Darko level flop and make me feel bad about this ranking, or he could also be a generational star in a world where Brandon Ingram is Luol Deng-ish and Ben Simmons is an enigma, so let’s gamble. Ingram is the safest pick but the least sexy, and then Simmons is roughly taller Rajon Rondo which means he will land somewhere on the scale of incredibly frustrating to awesome.
Wade Baldwin is beloved by every draft nerd and should rise on ESPN and DX’s respective boards. I feel similarly toward Baldwin as I did toward Marcus Smart– he may not have the burst and ball skills to be a true superstar, but he has wiggle room for surprise upside and at least he is unlikely to provide a bad return for the drafting team.
I wrote about Jakob Poeltl and Chinanu Onuaku as two of my favorite bigs.
I have no Furkan idea where to rank Korkmaz, but he is 18, 6’7″, can shoot, pass, and jump which is a super nice intersection of traits. I do not understand why he does not have more draft hype in a world where the intersection of shooting and athleticism causes traditional scouts to drool all over themselves. You would think the rest of his game is awful, except youth, passing, and good wing height further bolster his profile to the point where he feels like he may merit consideration at #4 overall. His weaknesses are strength, defense, and ball handling, all of which seem readily improvable given his age. Yet here we are, with Chad Ford ranking him one slot ahead of Malachi Richardson and DX not even having him top 20. Shrug.
Timothy Luwawu is another international guy that seems like a better gamble from afar than these crappy young NCAA guys.
Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray, Henry Ellenson, and Marquese Chriss make up my tier of baby NCAA players who I am not particularly fond of, but all have outs to become good NBA’ers so I am not relentlessly selling.
Zhou Qi is another international who just seems like he is a better shot in the dark than most NCAA guys. He has monster height and wingspan, skill, and basketball IQ, yet DX barely has him in round 1 Chad Ford has him ranked behind loads of 23 year old NCAA players who are locked into D-League careers. Especially after seeing foreign bigs like Jokic and Capela providing awesome draft value recently, why get so bearish on a guy with a unique collection of good traits?
Brice Johnson is my pet sleeper. He is young for a senior, and is in the conversation for both best NCAA player this past season as well as most explosive leaper in the draft. Any time both of those things are true, how bad can it be to draft him? He is Jeremy Evans deluxe– Evans always had solid stats, and I imagine if he was a bit bigger and more well rounded like Brice that he would be a useful pro.
Denzel Valentine is weird. On one hand, a guy who is great at passing, shooting, and rebounding seems like a great gamble in the mid-1st. On the other hand, how good can a guard be while being a statue on defense and unable to get to the rim on offense?
I have written about my doubts regarding Buddy Hield.
I like everybody in the #22-32 range. Most of them I wish I could move up, but I’m not sure to move down. This is a section where I wish I was more familiar with nuances, so I could have a more accurate ranking. Instead I may as well randomize it.
Damian Jones has a great body and athleticism and is a young junior, but suffers from being bad at basketball. As a regular Vanderbilt watcher, he was incredibly frustrating as the game of basketball simply does not come natural to him. He has a basic scoring repertoire and has become a willing passer. But his poor instincts are reflected in his lackluster rebounds, steals, and blocks, as well as the fact that Vandy only had the #34 defense in spite of Jones sharing the floor with more talented players such as Wade Baldwin and Luke Kornet.
Like Damian Jones, Skal Labissiere has great tools but little in the way of basketball playing ability. The only area where he stuffed the statsheet is blocks, and that is largely because he jumps at everything. His anemic rebound, assist, and steal rates indicate his awful feel for the game, and as an old freshman he seems nearly hopeless to me. His best skill is his decent mid-range/FT shot. It is hard to write off an explosive 7’0 player at age 20, but outside of height and athleticism there is approximately nothing to work with. He is just 9 months younger than Jones, skinnier, has a shorter wingspan, and more frightening statistical craters. His tools leave him some shot of having a successful NBA career, but color me pessimistic.
What happened to Troy Williams‘ stock? His 6’8.25″ wingspan is meh, but other than that he has the tools to be a wing stopper defensively. There are questions about his perimeter skills offensively, but if his handle and shot progress well he could be a steal. I had him as a 1st rounder pre-season and his junior year wasn’t bad, so I am not sure why he fell off the radar.
My familiarity with Thon Maker comes from the 2015 Hoop Summit, who looked like he had hands for feet and feet for hands. Maybe I am selling him short, but as far as I can tell his selling points are that he is 7’0″, young, and sometimes attempts to dribble and shoot. With such poor coordination and hands, it is hard to see him becoming good.
Juan Hernangomez is meh to me. He is a 3/4 tweener whose terrible assist to turnover ratio implies that he lacks the ball skill to succeed as an NBA perimeter player, in spite of him being an acceptable shooter. Without exceptional defense or athleticism to make up for this flaw, I remain unexcited.
Jameel Warney is the Paul Millsap flier of the draft. His NCAA statistics are not as strong as Millsap’s and he will likely not develop into a player who can make 3’s and defend the perimeter, but he has similar measurables and posted more assists than turnovers three seasons in a row as an efficient volume scorer for Stony Brook. He is a not bad under the radar sleeper in round 2.
Daniel Ochefu is the guy totally off the radar who I believe is most likely to carve out a rotation role in the NBA. He was among the best NCAA players in the country, and at age 22 is not insanely old for a senior. He has center size and does a little bit of everything. DraftExpress thinks his poor flexibility prevents him from switch onto smaller players. This may be a death knell for his NBA odds as heavy switching becomes increasingly popular, but there is enough to like to gamble on him in round 2 anyway.
Life hack: if you are Chad Ford, try swapping Malachi Richardson and Zhou Qi on your big board before the draft instead of 4 years after.
Andrew Sutton said:
Can’t wait to the see the difference with the draft day big board and the summer league/preseason big board. Even though we disagree on stuff, I like your take over DX, ESPN, and the general recruiting census. Warney to the Spurs!!!!
deanondraft said:
Thanks!
Warney seems like a highly Spurs-ian player. He actually caught my attention when I read this article about the Spurs having watched him more than anybody:
https://www.sny.tv/college-recruiting/news/stony-brook-coach-says-spurs-have-seen-jameel-warney-multiple-times/154724738
It seems like a natural fit– would love to see them scoop him off the UFA pile.
Andrew Sutton said:
Agreed, there is talent to be had outside of the draft. The draft is random and that inefficient process lends itself to players being left out. I’m just waiting on somebody to sign DJ Stephens and actually play him. Especially with the success Draymond Green (the media wants to act like Barkey was 6’10 or something) is having that smaller players can’t play big positions. I watch a lot of euroleague basketball and they play the “small ball”. Phoenix did this back in 2005 so when people gush about Golden State like this is new, I shake my head.
Cinerambler said:
You seem pretty high on the European crop this year – what has influenced your thinking on that?
deanondraft said:
A few things
1) This NCAA class isn’t very good
2) Internationals have provided some pretty great draft value in recent years and this year’s crop seems teeming with upside. Bender could be awesome, Korkmaz doesn’t seem to have much inhibiting his upside, and Zhou Qi is so
1) This NCAA class isn’t very good
2) Internationals have provided some pretty great draft value in recent years and 3) This year’s crop seems teeming with upside. Bender could be awesome, Korkmaz doesn’t seem to have much inhibiting his upside, and Zhou Qi has such a rare intersection of strengths he can’t be overlooked. Also Luwawu just sounds attractive, although I suppose that it might just be a “not intimately familiar with his flaws” bias and maybe I’d have him a fair bit lower if he was NCAA.
Also wonder if I should have some of the Zubac/Zizic/Cordinier/Yabusele tier ranked higher.
CQ said:
Simmons just seems like such the obvious #1 pick to me. He has franchise player equity, and Ingram does not. Honestly, can’t speak to Bender, having seen virtually none of him.
Also, I think your contrarian impulse is showing with Hield. Dude shot 46% on bulk 3PA and ~90% FT. That alone is worth a top ten pick in this POS draft. But factor in good athleticism and being probably the hardest worker in this thing, I think you’re pretty off. I do agree that Baldwin should also go higher though.
deanondraft said:
Hield’s athleticism isn’t that good. At BEST he will be a Klay Thompson level 3 point shooter. But he is shorter and had way worse AST/STL/BLK rates in college. And I don’t see what advantages he has that Klay lacks. Maybe a slightly better slashing game, although he has such worse vision than Klay I doubt it. So his upside is pretty much a crappy version of Klay that is worse and less versatile defensively, which kinda sucks for a best case scenario. Shooting alone isn’t enough when he’s old w/ average tools and sucks at everything else.
Think the work ethic leaves him some extra outs to surprise but not that many since he’s gonna be 23 in Dec.
Simmons is the obvious #1 pick based on talent but I just have a feeling that he’s going to disappoint hard. A broken shot and indifferent D is a bad combo. And the fact that he’s so indifferent on defense makes me pessimistic about him working to fix his shot a la Aaron Gordon. Ingram doesn’t have a load of franchise player equity but he certainly has some. He’s so young and could easily become a top 10 player with a faster than average progression.
Could be totally wrong on the order of the top 3. It’s a really tough call this year. I just feel like Simmons has a loser stench and want to go against the grain here.
CQ said:
Dean,
Just got around to checking out Zhou Qi. Like that you have him 15, I might even go ~10. He obviously needs to put on some weight, but watching some of his workout vids, he has legit footwork and skill, almost Dirkish at times with the one-foot turnarounds. With some of these guys, when they show them hit 4 in a row, you know they edited out 28 misses. Qi’s mechanics look natural and fluid, as ballery as a scrawny 7’2″ guy can look.
deanondraft said:
Yeah– the only thing really to become squeamish over is how poorly he rates among the people who get to view him up close. But those people also hated Capela, Gobert, and Jokic, they could just be overrating his outlier flaws (outlier skinniness and lack of aggression) and forgetting that he also has outlier strengths. Really don’t know exactly where he belongs but it has to be much higher than ESPN/DX consensus.
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