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Elite Tier
1. Karl Towns
2. Justise Winslow
3. D’Angelo Russell
These prospects are all high floor high ceiling studs. I would grade all of them in the range of a high end #2 pick to an average #1 in an average draft. Towns gets #1 because he’s a two way big prospect, and then Winslow and Russell are exceptionally close for #2. I favor Winslow because of his late season destruction and awesome tools, but Russell’s skill package is exceptional and he could be quite the offensive weapon. Whoever drafts these guys in the #3-5 range are going to be winners in this draft.
Note: I rate all three players below Joel Embiid and above all other prospects in the 2014 class.
Unique Blend of Elite Skill and Appalling Warts
4. Jahlil Okafor
Okafor is the most skilled low post freshman NCAA scorer I have ever watched, and I believe it will translate to the NBA given his monster size, length, hands, as well as footwork and rim touch. But he has holes in his game that the other top guys do not, and his lack of rim protection and shooting makes it difficult to place him in a lineup that maximizes his awesome low post scoring. He fits comfortably into the #4 slot on my big board, as there is a wide chasm between the top 3 and the rest of the class.
Upsidey Guys Who Are Starting To Get a Bit Warty
5. Emmanuel Mudiay
Assessing Mudiay’s draft stock is an interesting topic. I am a big advocate of swinging for the fences, since upside is far more important than downside and passing up a future star for a decent player is far more harmful than passing up a decent player for a bust. But the mystery box factor actually puts a dent in a Mudiay’s upside, as passing the check point of NCAA competence makes a player more likely to achieve their theoretical upside.
If Mudiay had spent this past season in college, he may have been as disappointing as past prospects such as Andrew Harrison, Marquis Teague, Austin Rivers, etc. Based on descriptions that his game needs polish, it is highly unlikely that he would have outperformed his #2 RSCI pedigree and boosted his stock by any significant margin. The fact that he is being evaluated as if he played NCAA and lived up to the hype is insane, as he is avoiding the risk that he falls out of favor with scouts with his flaws under a microscope without any opportunity cost. Drafting him over Winslow or Russell would be an unequivocal mistake with so much more downside and little (if any) additional upside.
This point should be especially obvious with the rookie disappointment of Dante Exum, who I believe had a more compelling thin slice. Mudiay’s physical tools are slightly preferrable, as he is more explosive with a better frame but does not quite have Exum’s quickness and is an inch shorter. Both have a gaping wart in their shooting ability, with Mudiay’s being marginally more worrisome. The difference maker is that Exum was reputed as having a superior basketball IQ and feel for the game, which I agreed with based on the one game eye test. I do not believe Mudiay has a poor feel or basketball IQ like Andrew Harrison does, but his decision making has been called into question and nothing shines for him skill wise. Everything is sheer potential– he could be a great PG if he adds polish to his half-court skill. He could be a beast defensively, but I see little discussion of him actually showing noteworthy acumen or intensity on that end. Any discussion of his draft stock needs to come with the glaring red flag that he might be terrible at basketball.
There is a point in the top 10 where it is worth taking the risk that he is bad at basketball given his physical tools, which are comfortably above average across the board. With height, length, speed, quickness, strength, and athleticism, he offers the whole package. But he nevertheless does not have the freaky nuclear athleticism of John Wall, Derrick Rose, or Russell Westbrook, which makes playing Mudiay roulette a bit less enticing. I am not sure exactly where to place him, but 5th is the maximum reasonable peak and he could be argued to go a fair bit lower. I am keeping him 5th for now because I don’t have any strong conviction that any of my lower prospects ran above him, but he is much closer to 10th in my book than is to the top 3.
6. Willie Cauley-Stein
7. Kelly Oubre
8. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
9. Stanley Johnson
10. Mario Hezonja
11. Kristaps Porzingis
These players all have arguments ahead of Mudiay. WCS offers the super power of elite footspeed and quickness in player with legitimate center size, which gives him tantalizing defensive versatility. Offensively he is strictly a garbage man, but he does not force bad shots and his FT% is improving, so he should at least be efficient in his limited role.
I already shared in depth thoughts on Kelly Oubre and Stanley Johnson. I noted in my writeup that I gravitate toward Oubre being the 5th best prospect, but I really don’t have enough faith in him being actually good at basketball to boldly place him above WCS and Mudiay. For now I am playing it safe and keeping him 7th.
On the other hand, I do have loads of faith in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. He is the Marcus Smart of this draft who is a defensive stud and the type of player who will find ways to help his team win games. His lack of 3 point range or offensive creation skill places a damper on his stock. But he is not a complete zero offensively since he is a good passer, an electric finisher, and has a respectable FT%. With his awesome tools and defensive versatility, I believe it is wise to just take him in the lottery and gamble that offensive game fills out adequately one way or another.
Mario Hezonja is a mystery box that I have little grasp on. With his athleticism, I buy the narrative that he has upside so 10th feels like a good place to rank him.
‘Staps is also a mystery box, and with Layne Vashro repeatedly tweeting the Bargnani comparison I have a hard time getting excited for him. With rumors of questionable work ethic and Staps being soft on the glass, it feels like some form of disappointment is inevitable. But he’s young, tall, toolsy, he can shoot, and I have not scouted him so I can’t take a strong anti-Staps position with great fervor.
Quality Role Players
12. Kevon Looney
13. Jakob Poeltl Somehow Rhymes with Turtle
14. Frank Kaminsky
15. Tyus Jones
16. Myles Turner
17. Kris Dunn
18. Christian Wood
19. Delon Wright
20. Sam Dekker
Looney’s stats are nice and his tools seem decent enough. Same with Frank, although smoothness for his size is his calling card rather than physical tools.
I want to love Poeltl more, as he offers nice rebounding and defense. But to my eye his offensive game feels a bit choppy, and I am skeptical of his upside on that end. Still a solid guy to take in the back end of the lottery.
It’s worth worrying that Tyus Jones will struggle translating his NCAA production similar to Tyler Ennis and Trey Burke, as he is tiny and not exceptionally athletic. But he has awesome skill, razor sharp instincts, and a better first step than his fellow undertooled T’s, so mid-1st round seems like a good time to gamble.
Myles Turner offers a unique blend of size and shooting, but to my eye he appears to be a stiff. He doesn’t pass, doesn’t get offensive rebounds, and was oddly inefficient inside the arc given his size and shooting ability. And in spite of his stellar block rate, he is not explosive and does not have the monster size of less athletic rim protectors such as Roy Hibbert or Rudy Gobert. Unless he develops a good NBA 3 point shot that he can get off at a high volume with his reach, I do not see him amounting to much as a pro.
Kris Dun has solid tools + solid stats and his mid-1st round standing seem appropriate. But I haven’t scouted him much so my opinion currently lacks depth.
Christian Wood I have not scouted, but on the surface he is intriguing to me. He offers rebounding, shot blocking, and has potential to develop into a stretch 4. He dominated in UNLV’s surprise win vs. Arizona, and he was certainly not aided by playing for one of the absolute worst NCAA coaches in Dave Rice. I am not sure he is necessarily underrated, but he is a player I would give a long and hard look if I was an NBA team with a mid-late 1st round pick.
Sam Dekker has been receiving loads of hype for his NCAA tournament performance, but to me he is the most bland prospect in the draft. He does not have any gaping weaknesses nor does he shine at anything in particular. I believe he will be a decent rotation player in the NBA, but I don’t see all that much upside.
In contrast to Dekker, Delon Wright has all sorts of funky polarity. I suspect that his lack of strength, quickness, or explosiveness will prevent him from translating his stellar college production to the NBA. But with his awesome combination of height, length, skill, basketball IQ, and instincts, he is a unique prospect and it is difficult to place a hard cap on his upside with high confidence. Thus he trades over boring Dekker.
Boring Role Players
21. Jerian Grant
22. Devin Booker
23. Caris LeVert
24. Bobby Portis
25. Trey Lyles
26. RJ Hunter
27. Cameron Payne
28. Rashad Vaughn
29. Robert Upshaw
30. Josh Richardson
This tier is more boring Dekker-ish players. Jerian Grant has an intriguing blend of physical tools, shooting, passing, and shot creation. But he also is old and has an bizarrely low rebound rate which is a bit of a red flag. I like him but feel he is slightly overrated after Notre Dame’s tournament run.
Devin Booker is the youngest prospect in the draft and can shoot the lights out, but offers little else. His passing and BBIQ are both solid, but he is a t-rex who is not particularly athletic and has exceptionally low steal, block, and rebound rates. He does not figure to make an impact defensively or with shot creation. He is a bland floor spacer to me.
Caris LeVert does a little bit of everything and has decent tools. His value takes a small hit because he missed most of this past season with a foot injury, but he could become a nice role player for a late 1st round pick.
Bobby Portis had a highly productive sophomore year– he is skilled, smart, and he plays hard. He has potential to become a solid stretch 4 in the NBA. But his lack of athleticism prohibits him from making a big impact, although I do suspect that his pro defensive impact exceeds what you would expect given his physical tools.
Trey Lyles is similar to Portis, and has even better handles and creation ability. But Portis strikes me as the more intelligent player, so I’m giving him the slight edge.
RJ Hunter is a 3 + maybe D prospect. Josh Richardson is a maybe 3 + D prospect.
Cameron Payne is the funkiest and most unique prospect in this tier. While he has lackluster tools for an NBA PG, he atones with a strong skill set as he guided Murray State to the 14th best kenpom offense in the NCAA. He is somewhat intoxicating to watch, and I feel compelled to make an campaign that Cam Payne has sneaky upside. But I can’t place my finger on a strong logical reason behind this, and with such PG depth in the NBA I do not want to overrate an undertooled PG dominating weak college competition.
Rashad Vaughn was the #10 RSCI recruit. While he appears to be a chucker, he posted solid NCAA statistics for an 18 year old. Like Christian Wood I am intrigued to see what he can accomplish once freed from the shackles of his horrific coach.
Robert Upshaw has serious red flags in his intangibles since he has been kicked off two college teams, but he is such a monster rebounder and rim protector that I remain intrigued.
Dean On Draft 
Hmm, personally I think you have Portis wayyy too low.
I’ve been high on him since last year, and his play this year just solidified my view on him IMO.
Other than that, I think I mostly agree with your top-30.
Justin Anderson is one guy that intrigues me as a potential 3+D guy.
Norman Powell, Jarrell Martin are probably guys that fall under the “role player” list, I have them near the bottom of my top-30 (tho ‘Staps and Mario are missing on my board b/c I haven’t watched 1 min of them).
Any thoughts on Dakari Johnson? Seems like he can at least be a serviceable backup at center. Probably not worth a top-30 pick ATM. He should probably pull a WCS and come back if Cal promises to start/play him.
I don’t know how high I can get on Portis since he is neither much of a shot creator nor a rim protector and his athleticism is firmly meh. Just seems like a guy who will be a solid role player to me but to rank him much higher there has to be a conceivable scenario where he becomes a legit good starter. Possible that he has enough size/skill/smarts to get there but I’m not currently seeing where sneaky upside comes from.
Anderson + Martin are two guys who just missed the cut. They could eventually end up on my top 30 and if I make it a top 40 they will likely be there.
Haven’t given much thought to Norman Powell. He’s a good athlete to be sure and clearly has NBA role player potential if he improves his shot to be able to hit NBA 3’s consistently. But hard to see him sticking if he doesn’t so I’d say he belongs somewhere in round 2.
Yeah, with Powell, I’m not taking him before 25, and likely taking him in the 30-35 range.
As for Dakari, pretty much agree. Wouldn’t take him before 25 as well, but would def. look at him in the 29-35 range.
Also I think Dakari is a fringe top 30 pick. The thinner and trimmer version of him made a bunch of nice improvements in his game. Hard to assess him when he barely gets off the bench in big games, but he is a guy who might sneak into the back end of my top 30 if he declares.
Sure I’d have preferred to see Mudiay against NCAA competition, but in the age of the Internet, I don’t think he’s as much of a mystery box as you make out. I’ve watched his DX scouting video and plenty of YouTube clips and I see a player who pretty clearly has the physical tools and true point guard skills to be an All-Star. He is a much more smooth, fluid player than the types of bust guards you mention and shows far more natural passing skills and anticipation than those players as well. I agree he lacks the crazy athleticism of a Westbrook or Wall, but he’s more than good enough from what I’ve seen. My major concern is how broken his shot turns out to be – if he could even be a decent shooter, I’d be seriously tempted to rate him over Russell, but with a sub 60 FT%, that’s probably unlikely.
I liked Exum last year too, but I also disagree that Mudiay’s ‘thin slice’ is worse – Exum’s clips were largely coming against high school competition whereas while the quality of the defense in the CBA is questionable from what I understand, it’s at least a professional league – he was playing against much older players and was pretty damn productive while doing it.
“he was playing against much older players”
–You can say that again, a 38 year old won finals MVP.
I get your argument for it being a more valuable indicator than Aussie HS basketball, but most of Exum’s hype was based on his FIBA performance. Given that Stephon Marbury is 6 years removed from being completely washed up and posting a 4.4 PER in the NBA, I just don’t think anything at all can be read into his performance there.
Fair point that is debateable whether him or Exum has a better thin slice. Mudiay IS much more explosive and I might have undersold that advantage in my analysis. But all things considered they strike me as mystery boxes of a similar caliber and with the top of this draft looking so so strong, Exum does serve as a reasonable cautionary tale as to why it may be a bad idea to gamble.
Got any clips of him looking smooth/fluid? I’m a sucker for smooth movement and could help me warm up to him and keep him #5 instead of creeping him down later.
I like what I see here in the P/R section of his DX scouting video – he looks fluid changing speeds and directions to me and isn’t just bull-rushing his way to the rim like some young guards:
To be fair, while I do feel pretty strongly about Mudiay being a top talent, I felt the same way about Exum last year and his rookie year showed he was a lot farther away than I thought.
Hmm that didn’t work, let’s try again:
Starting at the 5:45 mark of 2nd video
Yeah I see what you mean. Not like he’s Kyrie but he changes directions fairly fluidly for a player with his physical tools. Still hard to know what to make of him, but there is a respectable amount of upside mystery box and all.
I am probably going to just leave him 5th. I don’t think you can argue that it’s worth risking him over any of the top 4 and I don’t think the rest of the guys are promising enough to take over him. So he feels nice and comfy in that slot
Interesting reads .
“Boring role player” is not a good category name though!
Your description for category “Dekkerish” is a head scratcher since you list Dekker as a quality role player.
Also it is confusing why you have Delon Wright as a quality role player and Jerian Grant as boring role player and your main knock on Grant is he’s old. Wright is older.
Don’t read too much into the category labels, I just did that for flavor. Delon is two slots ahead of Grant and for all intents and purposes have similar stock in my eyes. Delon has sexier stats, Grant has better tools, and I could end up with Grant higher on my final big board.
While I think Dekker is boring he can still be a perfectly decent NBA’er. I suppose I could have arbitrarily moved him into the next tier, but I preferred to have him in the other tier so I could make my point about the contrast between him and Delon.
I do not read anything into the category labels, that’s the point really. I prefer clarity over flavor in a draft grading discussion.
It’s arbitrary to move Dekker to the Dekkerish category? That’s very odd.
Re:I preferred to have him in the other tier so I could make my point about the contrast between him and Delon.
Again, that was my point about your category labels. It isn’t logical.
Isn’t Nigel Hayes (Wisconsin) on your radar at all? I’d put him above all of your 20-30 range players. He showed some defensive versatility (not lockdown as RHJ though) but, compared with RHJ, he’s not 0 on the offensive end. He seems to have decent range, can create for others, post-up and play with good feel for the game (I like RHJ but he’s often out of control offensively, not high IQ on that end), great frame and length, solid athlete.
Maybe it’s a big reach but it’s my 5th SF. Below Winslow, Hezonja, Oubre and Stanley, but slightly above, probably at grade, with RHJ.
I agree with your top tier though (been on the Winslow’s bandwagon the whole season). Solid recap.
Yeah Nigel Hayes is on my radar– I actually had him on some of my big boards last season. I like him, but I was assuming he wouldn’t declare and want to wait until he does before I take a position on him. He’s such a funky prospect it’s hard to know exactly what to make of him. I will likely have him as a 1st rounder but I think he’s more of a PF than a SF– not sure he has the quicks to guard the perimeter in the NBA. But if he 3 point shot is for real he makes a compelling stretch 4.
The SF thing is kind of a gamble maybe. I just project him a 3 just because he developed legit perimeter skills (good 3P percentages, can find open men in the angles, can play off the ball), he’s way more than an undersized 4. I understand concerns about his lateral quickness and his ability to guard players on the perimeter in the Nba, but this season I saw him defend point guards to centers capably, so I’m optimistic about his defensive potential.
I see him a sort of poor man’s Kawhi, he obviously has worse tools compared to him (rebounding stats comparison shows that). But his major strengths and the reason why I love him as a prospect are the same great intangibles: smarts, high IQ, passing, versatility, HUGE improvements from year 1 to year 2, playing efficiently in a strong team, coaches praying his work ethic and intelligence. If you miss Winslow at the top, this is the type of wing you look for in the 20-30 range of any draft. I hope he declares.
Hmmm well maybe he’s quicker than I give him credit for– DX seems to be impressed with his lateral quickness in their scouting report. Maybe he can find a way to fit in as an NBA SF.
Kawhi comp is interesting– they do have similar measurables and while Kawhi is a better athlete it doesn’t mean that Hayes is not athletic enough to play the position. Nigel also has similar measurable to Millsap so I’d say he has equity to thrive at either forward position.
Wouldn’t be a shock to see him declare with Wisconsin losing so many players next season. If he does I’ll take a good look at him since he does have his own funky brand of upside. I’d probably end up placing him somewhere in the 15-25 range.
I’d agree with the assessment. He’s quick enlugh on defense to guard the wing and has ridiculously long arms which lead to deflections, help him recover and make plays he doesn’t have much business of making. Wisconsin hasn’t shown it that much recentky, especially not tonight, but through much of the season Wisconsin played a defense that switched on nearly everything which was largely based on Hayes’ ability to guard every college position, sometimes all in the same possession. Though he did have horrible games vs. Dez Wells of Maryland and in the first match-up vs. Duke where he got in big time trouble with fouls if I remember correctly.
Off ball in the NBA he should be outstanding, as well as with guarding within the scheme, helping to force the offense to shoot shots from the areas you want. He’s also excellent at recognizing clock pressure and will often make late clock switches to force misses, often air balls, that nevertheless don’t show up in his individual statistics but help the team win games.
Though the Dez Wells game is a big flag.
Hayes is returning. Damn, I wanted him to declare but he wants to be sure to be a top 20 selection, even if I don’t know how much is going to help him his junior year, considering that Kaminsky and Dekker are leaving and he’s a team player, not a shot-creator.
Positive thing is that I stop getting mad for OKC’s pick not conveying this year, a lot of people I liked in that range is staying. I thought Hayes was a great target around the #20 spot for our (76ers) roster and, given his measurements and team-oriented game, an Hinkie’s guy. Move on, give me a Russell-Embiid pick and roll to watch next year and I’ll forget tanking seasons.
Cameron Payne’s upside comes from his ability to shoot off the dribble, to get into that shot quickly and easily and to make it somewhat consistently, while also possessing excellent vision and a touch around the rim on flips and floaters that might be able to translate even against athletes whom are at once bigger and better at the next level. His decision making isn’t always the best, but that jump shot, which will force defenders to follow him on the screen, will give him a real chance to win on screens and create 2 on 1 advantages in the half court. What will perhaps determine if he’s a star is 1) If he can become slightly more consistent from deep, 2) If he can refine his finishing at the basket, and 3) if Payne improves his decision making. That is, if he trusts more in his teammates and the offense.
I see no reason why improvement in all three aspects isn’t a possibility for Payne at the next level. That’s not to say he will get there. He certainly has a chance though. I think he’s clearly a better prospect than Grant, and perhaps than Wright too, due to the consistency of the jumper.
Demetrius Jackson seems a better prospect than Grant for similar reasons. (As does Monte Morris, for slightly different reasons, but I doubt he declares.)
The two best players not to make the list are perhaps Taurean Prince of Baylor, who is criminally underrated, and Nigel Hayes. How anyone watched the Baylor-GSU game and didn’t come away thinking Prince was the real deal is beyond me. And that 18-15 on 9 shots, while one of his better rebounding stat lines in the season is in line with his performances all year. He can score inside, outside, and in the mid range. He can put it on the deck and create, at least a little. And he’s a super athlete. He seems a better prospect to me than RHJ, as his shot is a more bankable asset at the next level. And while it might take Prince time to learn man concepts, as Baylor played zone, he has the strength, athleticism and size to eventually excel on that end.
As for Hayes, he’s been much more consistent than Dekker on the year, generally draws the more difficult defensive assignment for a reason, and seems to have the rare ability to learn and integrate new skills very quickly, if you judge the progress from year 1 to year 2. He’s also very smart and has better passing skills. Dekker’s had the better tournament, but that’s really privileging a few games over what we’ve seen all year. At the very least, they are comparable prospects.
I left out Prince, Hayes, Morris, and Jackson because it doesn’t seem like they are faves to be in the draft so I haven’t given their stock thorough analysis.
I don’t have a strong opinion on Taurean Prince right now other than his stats being clearly attractive. That said I have a hard time envision myself liking him more than RHJ once I parse through everything. Sure he gets slightly more stocks and is a pretty good athlete, but this doesn’t mean he is necessarily a defensive stud in the pros. RHJ has better tools and has actually shown that he can lock down the top NCAA players in man to man for a top NCAA defense. This carries far more weight than racking up stocks in a zone– who knows what level of defensive IQ, lateral quickness, etc. Prince ends up displaying in a man to man setting. He’s largely a mystery box on D whereas RHJ is guaranteed stud. And yeah his 3 point shooting is a key advantage, but it’s a big big investment in his stats to rank him above RHJ. Just based on this year’s stats he has a not huge edge over RHJ in EWP (5.3 vs. 3.8) and that doesn’t even account for the fact that RHJ crushed him last year (4.5 vs 1.8) and has better pedigree + proven defensive dominance.
Don’t get me wrong, I find Prince to be an intriguing prospect. But with his breakout season coming out of nowhere I am approaching him with caution before getting too excited.
WRT Payne the big concern is whether he can do anything at all in the paint vs. NBA competition being so tiny and unathletic. He’s got a nice floater and step back jumper to be sure, but given the depth of PG he needs more than that to overcome his weak physical tools and become an above average starter. It’s more than just polishing his game up– he can barely even get to the rim vs. weak OVC competition so it’s hard to see him doing much damage there in the NBA.
The floater is definitely one of the three key shots with Payne (the other two being the pull up J and the J off the catch) as I completely agree, he’ll have trouble getting all the way to the basket and does not have the athleticism to directly attack the rim in traffic. And the floater is also the shot Payne’s the least likely to perfect. It’s a very difficult shot even without footers on the floor.
I was just saying, Payne’s got a somewhat decent chance of having that shot in his arsenal at some point. I wouldn’t say it was the most likely outcome, but it’s also pretty far from the least likely outcome as well. Without that shot, he’s probably a back-up. With it, the pull up J, the J off the catch and better decision making, he’s a star. Of course, that’s a lot that needs to go right for that to happen, but there aren’t that many prospects you could make such a case for, even if they max out their potential.
As for Taurean Prince, the form on his jumper is good. He squares his shoulders and has good balance with respect to his legs. And he gets into the shot easily with good elevation. If he goes to a team with good shooting instruction, a team like San Antonio, Philadelphia, or Atlanta for example, I have little doubt he’ll eventually be very solid from NBA range.
And with regard to his defense, of course you’re right that Hollis-Jefferson is the better bet. Though I think it’s unfair to completely dismiss the zone that Baylor plays with respect to NBA defense. NBA on ball principles might be lacking in this defense, but the aggressiveness that Baylor plays with necessitates that each defender stays connected to their teammates. Not only that but the weakside principles have a lot in common with weak side principles in the NBA, and in that Prince showed consistently that he could cover ground from the paint to the three point line, while competing against athletes who are bigger than him and recovering to smaller, quicker players on the perimeter. It takes at least a decent basketball IQ to play in such a defense, the shape of which bends and changes within possessions depending on dynamics of the offense. So with respect to understanding NBA concepts defensively I don’t have big questions. How long it takes him to learn how to play NBA caliber ball screens or how he plays angles on ball, that’s where I’d have bigger questions.
I have waited so long for this article. Thanks for writing another great piece, I thoroughly enjoy your analysis. Do you think Denzel Valentine has any NBA potential?
Yeah, Denzel Valentine seems to be at least worthy of a 2nd round gamble and possibly even a late 1st. I don’t have the best grasp on his defensive acumen and he made some bad decisions at the end of the big ten championship game, but he has an intriguing blend of passing, rebounding, and shooting.
What about Montrezl?
Not a fan. Not sure what he offers besides athleticism and dunking.
I like your rankings a lot. If I had the #1 pick I would probably take Towns no matter what. As a Sixers fan though, I am hoping for Russell. I have been following both college and pros my entire life but only really paying attention to what characteristics succeed in the pros for the last 10. Russell is the most skilled offensive player I have ever seen at that age. I think the “lack of athleticism” is a little over-rated, and think he will be fine defensively if he decides to care (which I think he will, especially on the right team) and doesn’t have to guard Russell Westbrook every night. On the average NBA SG/PG, his 6’9” wingspan will more than help him make up for average athleticism.
I’m going to do a writeup on Russell. I’m not worried at all about his defense, he has the tools to be OK enough on that end and the skill level to be so good offensively that his defensive shortcomings hardly matter.
The bigger issue is whether he can get to the rim and do anything there in the NBA. That’s the one question mark in his game that keeps him behind Towns and Winslow in my book. But his skill level is so awesome that I’m not 100% confident he’s not the best prospect in the draft.
I feel the clear play with #1 is to trade down to 2/3/4 for a huge fee and scoop either Russell or Winslow. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Hinkie execute something along these lines if Philly lands the #1 pick.
I definitely see your concerns about getting to the rim. He’s just so crafty with pull-ups and floaters I think he can get by without having to completely blow by defenders to keep them honest on the perimeter.
Anyway, looking forward to your full write up on him.
Thanks for your work and time. Any thoughts on Denzel Livingston?
I hadn’t heard of him until you mentioned him. Based on his stats and 6’9″ wingspan he probably has small equity to become something in the NBA.
He turns 22 in a few days and while his stats are good they really aren’t that impressive for his age playing a super soft schedule.
Hard to assess his creation skills from stats alone, but at a glance it looks like his optimal NBA role would be 3 + D combo guard who can handle minor creation duties. It’s not out of reach, but who knows how good he is defensively– his length + stocks look nice but he was also playing for the #326 defensive kenpom team. So it all depends on whether his non quantifiable quantities grade well or not, but in all likelihood he’s a low major guy who will fly below the radar and never get a real chance in the NBA.
What do you think about the narrative that Lyles has hidden upside due to playing behind two lottery picks?
medium.com/the-cauldron/what-to-make-of-kentucky-s-trey-lyles-b4a909734bbe
The article points out that some Kentucky players have been underrated before relative to consensus.
There are a lot of things to like about Lyles’ skill set: he can handle well for a big, he had a good assist:TOV, and he has some potential to develop into an NBA stretch 4. Even though he only shot 4/29 from 3, the fact that he was attempting them conveys that he likely makes them in practice at least.
The article also makes good points about playing as a big SF hurt his production. It is safe to assume he is at least slightly better than his stats suggest when taken at face value. It is a good writeup that is logical and will make me re-consider that I may rank Lyles a few slots too low.
But I wouldn’t get too carried away with his upside (c’mon at saying it’s #2 to that of Towns) because he lacks in athleticism/quicks/defense. Bledsoe’s calling card was that he had awesome tools so there was more room for him to waffle crush his college stats as an NBA’er.
In spite of this it remains possible that Lyles’ offensive skill + BBIQ was masked enough such that the thought of him slipping out of the lottery looks comical a few years down the road. But the non-athlete, non-defense types have pressure to be exceptionally good at offense to atone for their deficiencies, and this is doubly true for Lyles if he does not shoot NBA 3’s well enough to space the floor.
Overall I agree with the narrative but to a much more minor extent than the author of that writeup.
It’s also worth noting that Daniel Orton, Marquis Teague, Doron Lamb, and Darius Miller haven’t amounted to much so far. Only two of the six Kentucky players drafted outside the lottery those two seasons have outperformed their draft slots – not a great batting average.
We’re too close on a lot of these guys, Dean.
Miss reading your daily takes over on stuck.
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