Category Archives: NCAA

Post-Hoop Summit Freshman Rankings

14 Tuesday Apr 2015

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After seeing the top 2015 NCAA recruits in their only real game prior to the NCAA season, we finally have a taste for what they have to offer. So it is time for me to publish a way too early 2016 NCAA freshman prospect ranking. Note that this list omits the top recruits that were not in the game such as Diamond Stone and Henry Ellenson, as well as returning upperclassmen and internationals.

#1 Overall Contenders
1. Ben Simmons
Before the game, I was skeptical of Simmons living up to his #1 RSCI hype because of his age and unconventional mold. But after seeing him in action, he won me over as the top prospect in the class. He has uniquely good ball handling and passing skills for a forward and with the size to defend PF’s and quicks to defend SF’s, he offers excellent defensive versatility. This is a trait that projects to become coveted in the near future as defenses that switch relentlessly gain popularity.

He displayed sharp instincts on both ends with his passing vision and anticipation to jump in passing lanes for steals. His only noteworthy warts are his length (6’11) (which is not much to fuss over since he is 6’10” with elite PG skills and quicks) and his lackluster outside shot. Since I am a habitual buyer of prospects who provide everything but shooting, I am happy to roll with Simmons as my early #1 prospect in the class. He reminds me of Lamar Odom with better intangibles.

2. Skal Labissiere
The other consensus contestant for #1 also lived up to the hype, as he displayed great shooting touch from mid-range for an athletic 7 footer and also blocked 6 shots. I rank him below Simmons because he is 4 months older and his underwhelming 7’1.5″ wingspan directly detracts from his strengths of rim protection and shot making. He nevertheless has the necessary height and athleticism to become a good 2 way NBA big man, and is a strong candidate for #1 overall as rim protection and shooting are always a coveted combination of traits.

3. Brandon Ingram
It remains to be seen whether Ingram is actually good at basketball, but he showed enough promise at the Hoop Summit to maintain my interest. Ingram displayed solid feel to avoid mistakes, as he scored 12 points on 5/6 FG’s with 1 assist and 0 TOV’s. He also made some disruptive plays with his length defensively, as he was credited with 1 steal and 1 block and arguably deserved credit for a 2nd steal that went to Isaiah Briscoe.

The tantalizing aspect of Ingram is that he is a rare prospect in the Kevin Durant mold of tall (6.9.5″), lengthy (7’3″), and elite at shooting (42% 3’s 79% FT’s as HS senior). Given that he doesn’t turn 18 until September and is 13.5 months younger than Simmons and 17.5 months younger than Labissiere, he still has time to catch up to Durant’s pre-draft measurements of 6’10.25″ and 7’4.75″. Of course there is more to Durant than being exceptionally lanky and good at shooting, but having go go gadget arms to get off efficient shot attempts at will as well as make plays on D offers unique upside that is missing from other prospects in this class. Ingram appears to have much better feel for the game than Bruno Caboclo, and he can easily prove to be the best prospect in the class after a full NCAA season.

I do not see any clear reason why Ingram is significantly behind Labissiere or Simmons other than him being a late bloomer due to his young age. I believe he has a similar amount of #1 overall equity as the two consensus favorites, and this is more or less a 3 horse race for the top slot.

4. Cheick Diallo
Diallo falls into the dreaded category of 6’9″ player with center skill, but I am nevertheless enamored with him. Between the Hoop Summit and McDonald’s game, Diallo has now posted 30 points, 16 rebounds, 4 blocks, 4 assists, and 1 turnover in 33 minutes. The McDonald’s game is not to be taken seriously as it is more of an all-star showcase than serious basketball, but the man appears to have a knack for stuffing the statsheet. His excellent motor, length (7’4″), and timing enable him to rack up blocks and rebounds, and he has been a putback monster in the two games.

Diallo’s most impressive superpower comes from his beautifully fluid footwork as he is able to race to the rim with impeccable coordination. This reminisces of the smoothness displayed by Joel Embiid, which is a scarce quality in big man prospects. Diallo lacks the height and skill that makes Embiid such a stellar prospect, and this places a damper on his home run upside. But his skill level is not necessarily bad– he appears to be a solid passer for a big man and with his fluidity perhaps he will outperform his projected skill level as a freshman. His oddball mold limits his #1 overall equity, but I envision him dominating NCAA basketball and having myself and statistical models consistently rate him above his perception among scouts.

5. Jaylen Brown
Brown has the physical tools to become a prototypical two way NBA wing, but his disappointing Hoop Summit made it clear that his basketball playing ability and feel are lagging behind his physical gifts. He still has a year to turn things around and prove that he belongs in the #1 conversation, but this could be an early warning sign that he is a bust. He has a wide range of possible rankings at the end his freshman season.

Lotto One and Dones
6. Zhou Qi
Even though he will not be an NCAA freshman, Qi is one of the more fascinating prospects in the game. Qi’s features are that he is 7’2″ with a 7’6.5″ wingspan and is a decent shooter. Reach and shooting are an awesome tool/skill pairing that creates a nice upside, but Qi still needs to improve his 3 point shot to truly capitalize. In the game he did little to stand out in his 12 minutes and somewhat resembled Myles Turner stretched 2 inches upward. But in fairness he did not get much of a chance to show off his offensive skill set, and based on his DX scouting report he has more offensive skill and polish than Turner. I buy that he has plenty of upside, but he will remain a mystery box come draft time with only a Chinese League sample.

7. Stephen Zimmerman
Zimmerman played like a solidly well rounded 7 foot prospect in the Hoop Summit. He has decent length (7’3″), mobility, and athleticism and used his tools to play well defensively. He was disruptive with 2 steals and 2 blocks and also played solid post defense. He also showed a bit of offensive skill as he hit a couple of mid-range jumpers and also beat Labissiere off the dribble and finished over him. Zimmerman does not have any overwhelming strength, but he also lacks glaring weaknesses and his strengths could add up to a strong player.

8. Malik Newman
I entered the Hoop Summit as a Newman bear, as any Monta Ellis shaped chucker is going to pique my short selling interest. But he only played 17 minutes and did little to either win me over or fuel my desire to smash the sell button. He scored 10 points on 4/8 FG and did not display an appalling level of shot selection. Even though he finished with 0 assists, he had an awesome floating pass to Ivan Rabb in transition that Rabb could not finish. Monta Ellis is not a good NBA player, but he has also not been bad playing for Rick Carlisle. If Newman is a more athletic and better shooting version, he can be pretty good. I will wait for a significant sample of NCAA play before I take a position on Newman.

9. Jamal Murray
While Murray is technically a member of the 2016 recruiting class, he is considering reclassifying to 2015 and after his MVP performance in the Hoop Summit I do not see why he would not. He was ranked #16 Rivals and #27 Scout due to largely pedestrian tools as he is 6’5″ with 6’7″ length and average athleticism. But he blew away expectations by flashing shades of D’Angelo Russell en route to his 30 point, 5 assist performance. Much of his production was accrued from jumpshots and transition, so it should come with a grain of salt. But it also cannot be dismissed as sheer variance. Murray showed excellent skill and feel as well as better than advertised athleticism, and his performance could be an early warning sign that he was criminally underrated entering the game.

10. Ivan Rabb
Rabb falls into the same PF/C category as Cheick Diallo, as he is a bit undersized for a center (6’9.75″ w/ 7’2″ wing 215 lbs) and has a questionable skill level for a PF. His powers are that he is smooth and explosive with nice touch around the rim. Unfortunately he only played 8 minutes in the Hoop Summit, and he was one of the players I most looked forward to watching. I remain cautiously optimistic for him for no real reason, his NCAA sample could shift him in either direction.

Late 1sts/Players Who Will Spend > 1 Season in College
11. Chase Jeter
Jeter is type of recruit who keeps Duke locked into the top 10 every year, as he does not have the flash or upside to draw significant interest as an elite pick but has strong potential as a useful role player. He was the youngest player on team USA, edging out Brandon Ingram by 2 weeks. He did not show much burst or skill, but he has good quickness for his size. He used his mobility to stay active on defense and tied for the team USA lead with 5 rebounds. Much like Diallo and Rabb, he is undersized for a center and his NBA stock hinges on the development of his skill level. But Jeter is also a bit less shiny, and Coach K has a knack for coercing late 1st rounders to stick around. It’s possible that he sneaks into the back end of the 2016 lottery, and it’s also possible that he spends 4 quality years at Duke.

12. Allonzo Trier
Trier is the type of recruit who has turned Arizona into a perennial powerhouse. He is a prototypical 2 way NCAA wing who offers athleticism, shooting, defense, and sharp instincts. At the end of the 1st quarter he made an exceptional play where he quickly corralled a long offensive rebound and whipped a pass to Caleb Swanigan for an easy layup a hair before time expired. Most prospects would have chucked a mid-ranger to beat the buzzer, and this is the type of heady play that cannot be learned. Trier negated this with some frustrating plays in transition, as he had a tendency to attack out of control and would barrel into the defensive player and get swatted or lose the ball. These are the type of plays that can be weeded out with further repetitions, but it is disappointing that an athletic wing does not have more shake in the open floor, especially considering his age as the oldest member of team USA. There is enough to like such that he has a strong shot of getting drafted in the round 1, but his age and short arms (6’6″) temper his upside.

13. Jalen Brunson
Brunson was quietly hyperefficient in the Hoop Summit, scoring 12 points on 2/4 FG 8/8 FT with 7 assists and 1 TOV. He is tiny and not exceptionally athletic, but he has some sneaky upside as he has awesome skill and plenty of shake to get to the rim. Also he is creative at getting off rim attempts over the trees in spite of his diminutive size.

14. Thon Maker
How bearish is it right to be on an allegedly skilled 7 footer who in spite of his pathetic offensive showing still corralled 10 rebounds in 14 minutes? I am not sure, but watching Thon Maker try to play basketball resembled a drunk baby trying to walk for the first time ever. He consistently fumbled loose balls, tossed passes that missed his teammate by a mile, left his feet without a clue of what to do with the ball, and attempted shots directly into the hands of the opposing defender. He was clumsy with horrific feel for the game. While the latter may be improved with repetitions against quality competition, the former figures to persist as a thorn in his upside. He looked like he will be lucky to become as good as Byron Mullens and I am really not sure how much his size and alleged skill can overcome his warts. And frankly I am befuddled by the narrative that he is highly skilled since he appears to operate with four hooves instead of two hands and two feet. It still is just one game so I will leave my mind open to it being fluke for some reason but at this point I could not be more bearish on Maker.

15. Isaiah Briscoe

While Briscoe had a good line of 9 points, 9 assists, 3 steals, and 2 turnovers, I cannot help but feel pessimistic for his NBA upside. For starters it is impossible to not compare him to Andrew Harrison as he is the prototypical under explosive bully who will struggle to translate to higher levels of competition. His big advantage over Harrison is superior vision which should help ease his transition to college. But he has no burst and little shake to get to the rim, and he seems like he will be attempting far more mid-range shots and floaters than layups against set defenses. Further he showed poor shot selection as in a crucial possession in the final 2 minutes he attempted an off the dribble mid-ranger following a spin move with 6’10” Ben Simmons blanketed over him, which is pretty much the worst possible shot imaginable. He was bailed out by a foul but then went on to miss both free throws including an airball. Also he is one of the older members of the class as he turned 19 several days after the game. His size and PG skills give Briscoe equity to amount to something, but I do not see anything special to give him enticing upside.

16. Luke Kennard
After a surprisingly fun and likable collection of one and dones made Duke’s 2015 championship run less loathsome to the casual fan, Luke Kennard should restore order to the program’s hatable nature as he has strong potential to be a prototypical Duke villain. His tools are only average for an NCAA wing, which means that he should stick around for a while and with his skill level and knack for scoring he could give JJ Redick’s school scoring record a run for its money. Kennard impressed in the Hoop Summit scoring 22 points on 9/18 FG’s with 0 turnovers, and it is hard to not compare him to Redick with similar physical profiles and styles of play. He could eventually become a first round pick.

Lock Bust
23423042. Caleb Swanigan
Swanigan only played 12 minutes in the Hoop Summit but that was enough to convince me to furiously smash the sell button. Not that he was considered much of a prospect anyway, but I am fairly confident that he never will be. He looked clueless on the floor as he stood and watched 6’10” Tai Wynard post up 6’3.5″ Isaiah Briscoe and easily convert a layup from two feet away without even thinking about offering help. Later he continued to make Briscoe’s life difficult as he neglected to call out a screen and watched Briscoe get blasted to the hardwood. Offensively he appears to subscribe to the Julius Randle school of blindly attacking double and triple teams and getting swatted or turning it over. At 6’7.75″ and 271 pounds he appears to be a bully who lacks the feel and IQ to translate his game to elite levels of competition. He does have exceptionally long arms at 7’3.5″ and is a beast on the glass, so perhaps Tom Izzo can find a way to make him a productive NCAA player. But the habitual conclusion jumper inside me says that it’s safe to declare that he’s not going to be a useful NBA player.

Serving Justice to Justise: Should Winslow Go #1?

06 Monday Apr 2015

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In spite of Justise Winslow having an insane tournament run where he has consistently been the best player on the floor while looking like a cyborg amongst boys, it has not been a common reaction to discuss him as the #1 pick. He has elevated himself from a mid-late lottery pick to #6 ESPN and #5 DX, but has yet to gain any traction as a possible top 2 pick. This is likely because he was only the #13 RSCI player, and the top two candidate for #1 have been performing as advertised all season. It feels overreactive to suddenly elevate Winslow above them based on a few strong tournament games. This is normally an acceptable line of thought to prevent draft assessments from going off the rails, but Justise is special and deserves special consideration.

First it must be addressed why he was only the #13 RSCI recruit. DraftExpress’s pre-season video lists his weaknesses as perimeter shooting, offensive creation, and limited upside. Perimeter shooting lingers as a question mark, as Winslow has only shot 96/149 (64.4%) on FT and 23/89 (25.8%) on non-rim 2PA. But this is mitigated by his 45/108 (41.7%) 3 point shooting. While it is not a given that he will be an adequate 3 point shooter in the NBA, his odds are strong enough such that this is not a glaring red flag.

Offensive creation is an area where Winslow has clearly exceeded expectations. His ball handling still needs polish, but this has not stopped him from creating his own shot at the rim in the half-court. He combines his great first step with surprisingly smooth footwork to be one of the most productive wings at creating his own shot at the rim in the half-court in the draft. Using hoop-math.com’s splits, he has 30 unassisted rim FG (not including putbacks). Looking at last year’s class, his per minute rate exceeds that of most NCAA prospects in the draft, including all of the top 6 picks. The players who graded exceptionally well such as Jordan Clarkson, TJ Warren, and Elfrid Payton all appear to be good draft values, so I believe this is a relevant split to examine. Winslow’s freshman rate is comfortably behind the three of them, but they were all upperclassmen and it would not be surprising to see Winslow get to the rim with extreme frequency if he were to return as a sophomore. He clearly has significant upside as a slasher, especially if he can continue to improve his handle at a brisk rate.

The limited upside criticism has always felt overplayed to me to see for a player as young, toolsy, and skilled as Winslow, but I will nevertheless entertain the logic. He does not have great height/length for a SF (measured 6’6″ with a 6’10” wingspan at the Hoop Summit) and he was advertised as a good but not elite athlete. With a limited offensive skill set, it is understandable why he may have been seen as a 1 way defensive player. That said it is safe to dismiss the limited upside criticism with the promise he has shown as a slasher as well as his athleticism being better than advertised. He grades well athletically by every statistical measure from rebounds, steals, and blocks to rim creation and rim finishing splits. His athleticism also stands out by watching him play, especially with his monster transition defense.

I suspect that another factor plaguing Winslow’s upside perception is that there simply isn’t a superstar small forward that we can comfortably compare him to other than Kawhi Leonard who is much longer and a special snowflake that is generally an ill advised comp to make. On the other end, Chad Ford has been pitching Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as a Winslow comparison which is an extremely pessimistic projection for two reasons.

1) MKG had good tools, but explosive athleticism was not one of them. Elite strength with average burst is a common mold for disappointing translation from NCAA to NBA.
2) MKG’s NCAA statistics imply some hope for capable NBA 3 point shooting, but he has only shot 3/18 beyond the arc in his first 3 seasons. If Winslow is a complete non-threat from 3 then yes he will be disappointing, but this is the rock bottom end of his range.

As a cherry on top, VJL’s EWP formula ranks Winslow (8.7) ahead of MKG (7.0) entering the final 4. Winslow should be a better NBA player than MKG the overwhelming majority of the time. There remains a lack of a suitable upside comparison as one does not exist, so instead of forcing one it is better to evaluate Winslow on his own merits:

-His overall NCAA statistics are excellent. As a freshman he is filling every predictive part of the stat sheet other than FT% and mid-range shooting.
-His second half splits are staggering as he battled minor injuries earlier in the season and also has clearly improved his game as the season has progressed.
-Most of his monster games have come against the meat of the ACC schedule and tough matchups in the NCAA tournament.
-His athleticism, strength, and quickness are all big +’s. Height and length are not great, but they are not weaknesses if he has grown a half an inch or more since the Hoop Summit.
-He offers an elite defensive IQ and versatility. This is supported by Duke having the #12 kenpom defense while featuring offensive minded players as his primary support in Quinn Cook, Jahlil Okafor, and Tyus Jones.
-His individual dominance has correlated with team success as Duke has been smashing its competition during his 2nd half hot streak.

In short, Winslow’s statistics put him within arm’s length of the #1 spot when taken at face value. Every possible reason to value his statistics differently suggests that stats underrate him when taken at face value– physical tools, defensive reputation, second half splits, splits vs. top competition, team success, and rim creation splits/skills all grade favorably for him. The only possible hole in his game is perimeter shooting, but he nevertheless has a sizable slice of equity to become an average or better NBA shooter. Winslow glows with awesomeness from every angle and his draft stock should be valued tremendously high. He is a prototypical high floor, high ceiling two way wing prospect who is deserves consideration for the #1 overall selection.

Justise does not necessarily belong ahead of Karl Towns, as high floor, high ceiling two way center prospects are good too, and it is genuinely close between the two. The more important point is that Winslow’s perception needs to be updated from a solid consolation prize in the 4-7 range to a legitimate stud who is one of the top top prizes in this year’s draft and a favorite to become an all-star at some point in his NBA career. He really is that good, and it is time to treat him as such.

From Rags To Richardson: How an NBA Team Could Find a Late Draft Steal

01 Wednesday Apr 2015

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One of my favorite NCAA stories last season was the run of the Tennessee Volunteers. After fans started a midseason partition to fire coach Cuonzo Martin, the team suddenly caught white hot fire and started destroying everything in its path en route to a surprise Sweet 16 berth. In a season where a 7 seed beat an 8 seed for the championship, Tennessee was the sole team that finished with a better Kenpom rank (7) than tournament seed (11) (Correction– Louisville qualified too). This earned NBA attention for leading scorers Jarnell Stokes and Jordan McRae, but the unnoticed and unsung hero of this run was Josh Richardson.

Richardson had the reputation as the team’s best on ball defender. Whether this label truly belonged to him or McRae, the two wings were collectively doing something right on defense. Tennessee finished with the #19 kenpom D while neither forcing many turnovers nor having a rim protecting big with Jarnell Stokes and bowling ball shaped Jeronne Maymon patrolling the paint. McRae (3.3%) and Richardson (2.8%) both contended with Stokes (2.9%) for top block rate in the starting lineup. The collective defense was a team effort, but it speaks well for Richardson’s defense that he had a reputation as the stopper on a good defensive team with no clear playmaker on that end.

Offensively, Richardson’s role is approximately what it will be in the NBA, as McRae and Stokes carried the scoring load. Richardson posted a humble 17.3 usage rate, but with a good 2p% (54.4%) and assist:TOV (2.0 to 1.3) and an adequate 3p% (34.0), he led the starters in O-Rtg. This shows that he can fit in as an efficient role player, but does little justice to the havoc he wreaked during the tourney.

In Tennessee’s 4 tournament games, Richardson averaged 19.3 points, 3.0 assists, and just 1.5 TOV’s while shooting an incredible 25/32 (78.1%!!!) inside the arc. In fairness, Tennessee face weak opposition by tourney standards before losing to 2 seed Michigan in a game where the favorite required 11/20 3 point shooting to win by 2. But he nevertheless put on his domination pants and dominated the hell out of the tournament.

Unfortunately for J-Rich, this wasn’t enough to garner scouts attention. This year he was the only returning player among Tennessee’s top 6, and they had a new coach to boot. So he was forced to carry a thin, under talented roster in obscurity, and he did an admirable job. Now the team’s primary playmaker, he led the team in usage and assist rate and did so efficiently leading the team in O-Rtg. With J-Rich doing everything, Tennessee finished respectably with the 68th best kenpom offense. Defensively, Tennessee now played a press-zone defense that was much less effective than Cuonzo’s man to man, but Richardson led the team in steal rate while having the second lowest foul rate ahead only of Robert Hubbs who avoided fouls by avoiding playing defense with 1/3 the STL/BLK rates of J-Rich. He also had the 3rd highest DRB% of Tennessee’s 9 man rotation, as he stuffed the stat sheet in every regard for the rebuilding Volunteers.

Of course stats only tell part of the story, and while there is not much visual evidence of Richardson on the Internet this highlight video gives a taste of how he appears in motion:

-He is clearly an above average athlete for an NBA wing
-He is 6’6″ with solid length, and while he is a bit wiry he has the size to guard SG’s and smaller SF’s
-There is no evidence of lateral quicks, but based on defensive reputation and athleticism it seems safe to assume that they are at least satisfactory
-He shows surprisingly smooth footwork with a couple of nice eurosteps at 2:37 and 2:53

There is little to dislike about J-Rich. He has good tools for an NBA wing, he has shown that he can play efficiently as a role player, he has adequate creation skill for a 3 + D wing, and all signs point toward him having a realistic shot of becoming a + defensive wing in the pros. His biggest knock is that he wasn’t a superstar as an NCAA senior, but this is mitigated by him being young for his class as he does not turn 22 until September.

The next worst thing to say about him is that he only shot 31.8% from 3 for his college career. He shot just 22.5% as a freshman and sophomore before improving to 35.1% as a junior and senior with 79.6% FT’s to back up his 3 point improvement. While this still may not make him quite the sharpshooter that teams seek in a 3 + D prospect, shooting is the most improvable skill and it’s certainly within his range to become a high 30’s NBA 3 point shooter. If nothing else it is much more efficient to seek 3 + D types in good defensive players who need minor shooting upticks over sharpshooting athletes who need to learn how to play D at age 23 (I am looking at you, CJ Wilcox).

Richardson currently ranks in neither ESPN nor DX’s top 100, but I believe he is a good target in the late 1st or early 2nd round. This year’s 1st round is deep and good, but looking at DX’s 2nd round mock draft there are very few players that I even consider over J-Rich. Perhaps his hype never picks up and he goes undrafted, but I am a fan and will be rooting for him to find a role on an NBA team.

Stanley Johnson vs. Kelly Oubre: Who is the #2 NCAA SF?

30 Monday Mar 2015

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Justise Winslow has locked himself in as my #1 NCAA SF with his beastly 2nd half, but there remains a compelling debate regarding the 2nd best NCAA SF between Stanley Johnson vs. Kelly Oubre. On the surface their per 40 statistics are nearly identical:

PTS 2PA 2P% 3PA 3P% FTA FT%
Stanley 19.4 10.1 0.478 4.3 0.371 6.6 0.742
Oubre 17.6 8.1 0.497 5 0.358 5.8 0.718
TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF
Stanley 9.1 2.3 2.1 0.6 3 3.7
Oubre 9.5 1.5 2.2 0.7 2.3 3.8

Stanley is 6 months younger, played more minutes per game (28.4 vs 21.0) and did so for a better team with a better defense. RSCI ranked Stanley #3 and Oubre #8, DX has Stanley 9th and Oubre 13th in the 2015 draft, ESPN has Stanley 11th and Oubre 12th, and Layne Vashro’s EWP grades Stanley (8.4) comfortably ahead of Oubre (5.4). All macro signs point toward Stanley Johnson having a small but clear edge as a prospect. But details are fun and occasionally illuminating, so let’s explore them before ending the article in agreement with consensus.

The biggest difference between the two players comes in their physical profiles. Stanley measured half an inch taller and 33 pounds heavier than Oubre at the Nike Hoop Summit, and has a big edge in physical strength. Oubre counters with go go gadget arms (7’2″ vs 6’11” wingspan), superior athleticism, and vastly superior quickness. Overall Oubre has a much more attractive physical package. While Stanley’s tools are not bad, they come with the red flag that average athletes with excellent strength often struggle to translate their NCAA production to the NBA.

Stanley Johnson somewhat reminisces of a SF version of Marcus Smart, minus the part where he is a defensive outlier. Johnson doesn’t have Smart’s defensive quickness as he gets beaten off the dribble much more frequently, and while he has a good steal rate (3.3%) it pales in comparison to Smart’s outlier rate (5.2%). And in spite of being 4 inches taller he somehow has a lower block rate at 1.6% vs 2.1%. As an NBA rookie, Smart has been an adequate floor spacer and passer, but has largely failed to get to the rim and finish or draw free throws off the dribble. As much as I love Smart, he would be a bland prospect without his awesome defense.

Stanley does not have an identical offensive skill set to Smart, so it is not a given that he will share the same translation issues. He is taller, has a better outside shot, and has a softer touch on short range floaters. But his half-court offense inside the arc is largely limited to driving halfway to the rim and then pulling up for short floaters. Other than that he has some frightening red flags. According to hoop-math.com, here are his 2 point attempts split between transition vs half-court and rim attempts vs mid-rangers:

2P 2PA 2P%
Trans Rim 30 40 75.0%
Trans Mid 17 34 50.0%
HC Rim 29 72 40.3%
HC Mid 55 128 43.0%

Stanley gets flack for his rim finishing, and rightfully so as his half-court splits are particularly ugly. It’s staggering that he is worse on half-court rim attempts than he is on non-rim attempts. For comparison, Marcus Smart shot 37/71 (52.1%) on half-court rim attempts as a freshman and 60/94 (63.8%) as a sophomore. Given Johnson’s size advantage, it is extremely disconcerting how badly he is struggling. This is slightly softened by his impressive half-court mid-range splits where Smart only converted 32.6% in his 2 years combined. So at least he may not be a complete zero inside the arc once he transitions to the NBA, but a good floater is a weak go to weapon in the NBA. It is a good plan B for the occasions when he can’t get all the way to the rim, but if he cannot get there ever and it becomes plan A then it does little to bolster his value.

Kelly Oubre has little in the way of a half court skill set, but in spite of his greater athleticism he is less reliant on transition scoring and his half-court splits are a bit stronger.

2P 2PA 2P%
Trans Rim 17 24 70.8%
Trans Mid 4 9 44.4%
HC Rim 27 49 55.1%
HC Mid 25 65 38.5%

Further troubling for Johnson is that Arizona only faced 11 of 38 opponents featuring top 100 defensive 2p% and top 120 blk%. In those 11 games, Johnson shot an appalling 23/88 (26.1%) inside the arc. Given his volume of mid-range attempts, the sample is likely hurt by bad variance. But it logically follows that floaters and short jumpers are less likely to be converted when contested by length, and his rim woes are obviously exacerbated in such matchups. In comparison, Kansas faced 17 of 36 opponents who fit those parameters and Oubre converted 33/72 (45.8%) of his 2PA in slightly more total minutes than Stanley (362 vs 347). And in spite of fewer 2PA, Oubre drew more FTA in the sample 82 vs. 68. Also Oubre played 3 games against by far the top 2 interior defenses (Kentucky and Texas) where he collectively shot 8/14 from 2 with 13 FTA in 66 minutes. No matter how you slice it Stanley’s statistics suffered significantly more against defenses that most closely approximate NBA caliber competition. This aligns with the narrative that he is a greater translation risk than Oubre.

Oubre does not have a sophisticated offensive game, as his creation skills are limited and he projects to be little more than a floor spacer early in his NBA career. But he shows flashes of ability to drive and finish that are absent from Stanley’s repertoire, and with his superior athletic package he may be able to build on this as he ages. Stanley is a better passer with a better floater, but there is no clear path where he surprises as a quality NBA scorer. Paul Pierce became an NBA superstar with average athleticism, but he had elite feel, handles, and footwork and as of right now Stanley does not shine in any of the three categories. So unless he progresses his skill level tremendously in the next few years, he likely will be limited to being an offensive role player.

With respect to defensive playmaking, the two SF’s are nearly identical:

PF/100p DRB% STL% BLK%
Stanley 5.6 19.1 3.2 1.6
Oubre 5.6 19.2 3.3 1.8

Both have great rebound and steal rates, and both have surprisingly low block rates. I believe that Oubre’s block rate is a bit of a fluke– he did not accrue a single block in his first 229 minutes while he was trying to solidify his role in Kansas’s rotation, and he ended up with a smaller sample of minutes than most lottery prospects. I suspect that his block rate would grow with a greater minute sample. Conversely this may indicate that his leaping ability pales in comparison to his stellar lateral quickness, and I could be overrating his athleticism advantage over Stanley. Either way I favor him as a defensive prospect because he is drastically tougher to beat off the dribble, and should have a much easier time guarding NBA SF’s. This is partially offset by his mediocre defensive awareness as he is sometimes prone to lapses, but his upside as a defensive wing is elite whereas Stanley is a mixed bag.

To narrow the gap, Stanley has equity to be a good defensive PF in the NBA once paired with a good rim protecting center. He rebounds well, he has enough strength to hold his own in the post, and he has quick hands to poke away entry passes. Further he might be perceived as a weak link in the defense when facing a slightly taller post-up PF, and less sharp coaches might try too hard to attack the “mismatch” and run highly inefficient post-ups against him. Even though he will likely struggle to contain quicker SF’s off the dribble, Stanley still could easily end up as a positive defensive NBA player. It would not surprise me if he became something along the lines of Draymond Green as a pro. In spite of all of the red flags, his stellar production at such a young age cannot be completely ignored and I maintain him as a clear lottery pick.

Oubre has a different flavor of red flags. He could barely get off the bench early in the season because he was so lost, and once he secured a starting role his inconsistency still resulted in a number of games where his minutes were limited with near empty stat lines. He does not have good feel for the game, as he would at times blindly barrel his way into the lane and get blocked or turn it over. He also has a mediocre assist to turnover ratio and questionable defensive focus. He is still learning how to play and I do not perceive him as a lock to become a good NBA player. But these flaws can partially be attributed to being an inexperienced freshman (Stanley was not immune to similar errors), and I feel that Bill Self was a bit overreactive in jerking his minutes around. And in spite of his warts, his bottom line looks good. He comfortably led the #10 kenpom defense in individual DRtg as a SF, he posted an above average ORtg on 23 usage, and his production did not drastically slip against the many stingy defenses Kansas faced. His flags are less worrying to me than those of Stanley, and I am more enchanted by his upside. I do not prefer Oubre by a landslide, but I clearly favor him as a prospect.

Oubre’s warts are enough to keep him outside of the top 4 conversation, but after that I gravitate toward him being the 5th best prospect in the class. He fits easily into NBA lineups as a 3 + D wing. He offers defensive versatility, as he has the quickness to guard SG’s and the height and length to play as a small PF, especially once he adds strength. Perhaps his basketball IQ and skill level never develop enough to become more than a mediocre 3 + D player, but I like enough about him to roll the dice on him falling somewhere on the spectrum of a quality 3 + D guy to all-star caliber.

Justise Winslow Has Been Breaking NCAA Basketball

29 Sunday Mar 2015

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Justise Winslow has been gaining draft hype with an exceptionally strong NCAA performance, and I’m here to dump gasoline on the fire.

After losing at Notre Dame mid-way through the season, Duke looked like a slight disappointment with a 4-3 ACC record and a #8 kenpom rank after being rated top 5 preseason by every person and computer in the universe. But they followed up the Notre Dame loss with a win at then undefeated and 2nd ranked Virginia, the beginning of a vicious hot streak. Starting with the Virginia win, they have gone 16-1 with a 12-5 record against the gambling spread en route to a Final Four berth. If this hot streak were to be attributed a single reason, it would be that Justise Winslow has morphed into a superstar and put the team on his back. Here are his per 40 minute scoring splits with the first 20 games on the first line, and the latest 17 on the bottom line:

PTS 2PA 2P% 3PA 3P% FTA FT%
15.7 7.5 46.5% 5 37.3% 5.6 57.9%
18.7 9.8 55.7% 3.1 48.8% 4.7 69.4%

There is likely a variance involved in these splits, as it is unlikely that he suddenly became a much better shooter midway through the season. But he has upticked nevertheless, and his increase in both 2 pointer volume and with a huge spike in conversion is especially promising. Again there is variance involved as his early mid-range splits were horrific, but the fact that he has been able to increase his attempts against tougher defenses with such a big spike in 2P% suggests massive progression throughout the season. Now let’s look at his per 40 splits for other box score stats:

ORB DRB AST STL BLK TOV
1.4 5.2 2.7 1.3 0.9 2.4
2.2 8.7 3.2 2.4 1.4 2.6

Every stat is trending up, often by massive margins. It is common for freshmen to improve as the season progresses, but they normally do not see such massive statistical upswings because 1) competition tends to get tougher in the second half and 2) it is not normal to progress this much. For comparison, here are the splits for his freshman cohorts:

Jahlil Okafor:

PTS 2PA 2P% FTA FT%
24.6 15.2 66.2% 7.9 56.2%
21.2 14 67.5% 5.4 41.5%
ORB DRB AST STL BLK TOV
5.3 7.1 2.0 1.0 2.0 3.3
4.0 6.4 1.6 1.0 1.8 3.4

Tyus Jones:

PTS 2PA 2P% 3PA 3P% FTA FT%
14.4 5.0 47.4% 4.0 36.7% 5.9 88.9%
13.3 6.8 41.3% 3.6 37.9% 3.9 88.7%
ORB DRB AST STL BLK TOV
0.9 3.4 6.5 1.8 0.1 2.2
0.4 3.8 7.1 1.8 0.1 2.5

Both players tended to hold steady or slightly downtick with fewer weak opponents to feast upon. There is no obvious progression for either, which highlights how awesome Justise’s leap has been. It also suggests that the uptick in team success is largely due to his growth into a star.

It may seem overreactive to throw him into the top 3 discussion based on three great tournament games, but really this is an extension of a trend that has been ongoing for half a season now. Not only have his statistics been trending off the charts, but he looks like a beast while accruing them. The plays he makes on both ends in transition, on the glass, and in attacking the rim are plays that no NCAA player other than Kelly Oubre on a good day is physically capable of making. His physical profile is stellar with solid height (6’7″) and length (6’10”) and exceptional strength and athleticism, and if he continues to improve his ball handling and shot making there is not much impeding his upside.

At this point Winslow is at worst the 4th best prospect in the draft, and it would be nothing short of lunacy to take Emmanuel Mudiay ahead of him. Winslow’s physical tools are just as good as Mudiay’s, except he has dominated top end NCAA competition whereas Mudiay has played well in a league where 38 year old Stephon Marbury reigns supreme. It is highly unlikely that Mudiay would be notably better at the NCAA level, but possible that he would be drastically worse, so it is correct to value Winslow above him.

Winslow is still no threat to Towns at the #1 slot, but it is perfectly reasonable to take him at #2 or #3 overall. It may seem like insanity to value the 22 PER player over his 31 PER teammate who was the #1 RSCI prospect and has been the consensus #1 pick all season, but Winslow’s skill set is far more valuable at the NBA level. Jahlil Okafor is a stud low post scorer, but it comes at the expense of the neither 3 nor D stigma. This makes him difficult to build around since there are few stretch 4’s who are good enough to atone for Okafor’s rim protection shortcomings and pairing him with a rim protecting 5 prevents him from having optimal spacing to operate in the paint with maximum efficiency. I can see him becoming a more efficient version of Zach Randolph, which is certainly a valuable NBA player which is why I maintain him as a top 4 pick. But Zach Randolph was not considered good until paired with Marc Gasol who 1) is a good defensive center and 2) can make long 2’s and is a great passer from the high post. Even if he hits his upside, Okafor still needs to be paired with a fellow big with a unique blend of strengths to play a big role on a contender. Also his FT% looms as a major wart, as it bodes ill for his ability to operate outside the paint offensively.  If nothing else hurts his overall efficiency which is his principal selling point as a prospect.

In short, Okafor’s hype is based largely on scouts overrating the value of low post scoring, especially when it comes with neither rim protection nor outside shooting. While he has been as good as advertised, that is not good enough to be a top 3 pick in this class when he is such an awkward fit in the modern NBA.

This explains why the gap between Okafor (9.6) and Winslow (7.3) according to Layne Vashro’s EWP model was surprisingly slim entering the NCAA tournament. That gap should narrow given that Winslow has outshined Okafor thus far in the tourney. Further, if any player is underrated by EWP it is Winslow since he is far more athletic and has a significantly stronger split over the second half of the season. So according to math and logic and such, Okafor is at best is a narrowly superior prospect to Winslow. My gut feeling is that Winslow is a more valuable prospect that will become a more valuable pro. He is the player that I tune in to watch, he is the player with the killer physical profile, and he is the player that I would dream of building an NBA team around if he hits his upside.

I am unsure whether I take Winslow over Russell. I currently lean gently in the direction of D’Angelo, but Justise still has a game or two to change my mind. But more importantly, while watching the Final Four everybody should ask themselves: would you really be upset if you rooted for a team that picked Winslow over Okafor?

Summer League Scouting: The Rest

20 Sunday Jul 2014

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I already wrote my detailed scouting reports on Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Doug McDermott, and TJ Warren as those were the players I felt I got to know the most intimately in Las Vegas. But I watched enough of other players to have observations I’d like to share.

Zach LaVine

Of all the players I was bearish on, Zach LaVine appears to be the strongest bet to prove me wrong. He was a mystery box that I assumed contained nothing substantial, but now that we got to see him run an offense and play man to man defense, he demonstrated much more ability than I anticipated.

In the first game, it stood out that Gal Mekel tried to drive past LaVine on 3 occasions and couldn’t get by once. I wasn’t sure whether to be sad for Mekel or happy for LaVine, but then Mekel blew by Glenn Robinson and got to the rim 3 times in a row. Even though Robinson is a SF, he’s not athletically challenged. Then Mekel tried to go at LaVine one last time, put a nice crossover on him and tried to shift directions a couple of times, but LaVine diligently shuffled his feet and forced him into a tough fadeaway jumper that badly missed.

I expected LaVine to be clueless on defense due to bad high school and college steal rates. He finished with 4 steals in 5 games, and 2 of them showed quick hands to strip the ball that you never see from McDermott or Randle types. I don’t think his defensive instincts are that bad, he just didn’t get many steals because he doesn’t have long arms and he is rail thin (I am starting to believe strength plays a significant role in steals). He still can’t fight through a screen to save his life and doesn’t always seem certain of where he’s supposed to be on defense, but he definitely showed enough potential to make me believe he can possibly become a positive on this end.

Offensively, we finally got to see LaVine run an offense and it wasn’t too bad. He doesn’t seem like a natural PG, and in the first game he appeared uncomfortable whenever Dee Bost applied pressure. He also isn’t the best passer, as he doesn’t see the floor all that well and he didn’t appear to be particularly accurate with his passes. But once he settled in his handle didn’t look too shabby, as it was good enough to get him wherever he wanted to go with his elite explosiveness and quicks. The issue was that it’s difficult for him to get off passes in the post because of his short arms, and he struggles to finish due to his lack of strength, so he was fairly reliant on his jumper and free throws. But he did a couple of shots to go at the rim when he found daylight, including some highlight dunks. His feel for the game didn’t look great, but at the same time it was much better than expected for a guy who hasn’t run an offense above the high school level. It will be interesting to see how much he can improve with hard work and repetitions. His final counting stats weren’t too shabby for such a raw prospect: 15.7 pts 2.8 asts 3.3 tovs in 6 games– his turnover rate is especially mild given all of the slashing, passing, and scoring LaVine was asked to do given his age and experience.

LaVine is pretty much Nik Stauskas if you traded a healthy portion of skill and feel for elite quickness and explosiveness. Stauskas was a lower RSCI recruit than LaVine who rose due to working diligently on his skills and body. I now understand why LaVine wasn’t top 50 RSCI: there’s a bias toward players who dominate high school due to physically developing sooner such as Jabari Parker, Shabazz Muhammad, and Julius Randle. LaVine’s rail thin frame is still a concern, as he is uniquely underweight and may never add enough muscle to accomplish much inside. But I get the impression that he is taking his NBA career seriously and is going to work hard and listen to his coach (if only his coach wasn’t Flip Saunders). I don’t know how high he’ll peak or if he’ll even necessarily become good, but he inspired a ton of hope in Las Vegas and he shot up my rankings. I feel he justified his lottery selection.

Dante Exum

Exum looked awesome the first game, as he was getting to his spots offensively, dishing beautiful passes to his teammates, and protecting the ball with just one turnover. I don’t know if he was feeding off of the crazy pro-Utah energy (the crowd was going crazy over every tiny pro-Jazz event) or if he faced a horrible defense, because he completely disappointed in the following games.

He still showed good quickness, good vision and passing ability, and playmaking instincts defensively to suggest that he has plenty of upside. He is young and toolsy enough such that he didn’t need to have a great summer league. Frankly he looked uncomfortable adjusting to the higher level of competition after not playing above Australian HS level for the past year. It would have been nice to see him show some progress toward the end, but maybe he just needs to get repetitions and work on dribbling with his left hand. Also it appears his conditioning may be a bigger issue than expected, which explains why he conserved so much energy on defense in high school.

His defense looked as bad as anticipated and he couldn’t buy a bucket in the paint over length. He had some sexy finishes in FIBA, but it’s possible that he can’t consistently finish at the rim off the dribble in the NBA.

Altogether there is nothing about his summer league that suggests irreparable flaw or makes his upside unattainable. But he could have shown more and we do need to brace for the possibility that this mystery box does not contain a boat. I don’t drop him heavily though, he’s still top 5 to me.

Julius Randle

I like the way the Lakers were using Randle. He often slashed from the perimeter, where I felt he was at his best in college. And unlike Jabari and Wiggins, he doesn’t attack exclusively for himself, as he makes a conscious effort to create to teammates. I don’t think he sees the floor all that well, but he is mindful of where his teammates are hanging out and he tries to dish to them when he can. He had one excellent pass where he threaded the needle inside and created FT’s.

And even though he’s bad on defense, it’s not because he doesn’t care. He shows competitiveness on this end, he just is naturally bad at it due to short arms, lack of burst, and slow reactions. I think this is just a killer triumvirate of weaknesses, but he works hard and he can at least become good man to man with his quick feet and great strength.

Randle is definitely less talented than Wiggins and Parker but it feels like he’s on a better developmental path than either of them. I’ve always had the impression that he really does want to be good at as many things as possible to win, and he will sacrifice touches and shots for the good of the team. He still doesn’t naturally play efficiently, and he struggled to finish some of his postups which involved a bit too much dribbling. But he still is so good at finishing circus shots that his shooting percentages didn’t look horrible at the end of the day.

I think he has an uphill climb to become great and I will always perceive him as an underdog in spite of his recruiting ranking and draft slot. I could see him overachieving my expectations for him through hard work and adaptability. It will be interesting to monitor Randle vs. Parker– I feel that Parker has naturally sharper instincts, but Randle is more in tune with the overall health of the team, but they are otherwise largely similar players.

Tyler Ennis

Ennis was a disappointment for me. I didn’t watch a ton but from what I can tell he’s too slow to get to the rim and could only get close enough to get off floaters. He made some sharp passes and showed quick hands that suggest he might have had a good steal rate even without the zone. Also he might be much better in the NBA since he was awful against bad teams his first few college games before everything clicked. But I might just have been too much of a sucker for cerebral PG’s and need to upgrade the value of athleticism + quicks for the position. I can still see him as a Mark Jackson type.

Rodney Hood

I didn’t like Hood as a prospect at all, but he had a solid showing in Vegas. His offensive package isn’t shabby: he makes 3’s, he sees the floor, he passes well, he can exploit mismatches to get to the rim with his decent athleticism and handle, and he doesn’t force the issue and make mistakes. That’s a solid supporting role player, and 11 assists vs 5 turnovers is nice. If he could even be neutral defensively I’d say that’s a solid pick in the late 1st. Unfortunately given his poor strength, short arms, and bad instincts defensively I still think he’ll offset the good but not great offensive skill set. But who knows, maybe he’ll overachieve enough on both ends to become an alright role player.

Kyle Anderson

I am big time disappointed in Kyle. He couldn’t get to the rim and finish, he couldn’t get to the line, he didn’t rebound, and he didn’t get many assists because he couldn’t get to his spots offensively. Further when he played Utah, Rodney Hood absolutely abused him and was able to blow by him at will. Against New Orleans there were 2 occasions on which Kyle was near the rim but didn’t rotate to help, although on one occasion he reached in to commit a weak foul and got pulled. I have heard that he did well defensively against some of the other top players, but whenever I happened to notice he was not getting to the rim and not doing anything of value on defense.

The slomo nickname is all fun and games until Kyle actually needs to match up against NBA athletes. He’s the smartest player in the draft, but smarts won’t be enough when he’s weak and slow and going up against elite athletes. He was drafted to the best possible situation to succeed, but I’m starting to fear he’s just a bit too slow and lazy.

Bruno Caboclo

Caboclo’s rawness was on fully display with his 2 assists and 18 turnovers. He didn’t seem to be that sure of where he was supposed to be defensively when I watched either. His rawness is a thing, his feel for the game is a work in progress. But it’s still easy to see why he was such a tantalizing prospect: just look at those arms and his shooting touch. He had one possession where he splashed a stepback 3 and it looked especially nice. Near the end of a half he was standing covered in the corner and caught the ball, fired, and hit at the buzzer. It’s such a broken weapon if he can get off corner 3’s whenever he wants– there was no off ball movement necessary to create that shot. He might not be good at all, but his upside is obvious so I can’t hate on the selection.

Summer League Scouting: Doug McDermott

20 Sunday Jul 2014

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His name is Dougie, he gets McBuckets, and he does so with his special power of literally every single spot on the court being a hot spot for him. He appends this power with good feel for the game, as he’s in touch with his plentiful limitations and uses his smarts to be as good as he can be in spite of them. This is enough good stuff to dominate summer league, and McDermott obliged with an efficient 18 points per game.

I had questions about how much McDermott could translate his college scoring to the pros, but there was no question that he could drain 3’s and space the floor. This is where he thrived during summer league, as 50% of his points came from behind the arc as he shot 12/27 from 3. Further, he was fouled shooting three 3’s, and 62.5% of his points came from deep if you include those in his beyond the arc tally. McDermott moves well off the ball, and he has a quick release and deep range that implies he should be able to get off his fair share of 3 point shooting volume in the pros in spite of questionable foot speed.

McDermott also showed good feel for the game, as he made the simple pass when he didn’t feel he had an angle to attack. Some of his passes to teammates cutting to the rim were impressive and accurate, and it’s worth wondering whether McDermott can leverage his elite shooting touch to become a pinpoint passer as well now that he will be depended upon to score less and move the ball more. He also did a solid job of avoiding mistakes, finishing summer with 11 assists and 12 turnovers.

The trouble is that I expected his inside the arc scoring to translate poorly, and his limitations were painfully evident throughout summer league. His most glaring limitation offensively is that he can hardly dribble. He isn’t completely worthless handling the ball, he hit a couple of shots off the dribble, and he was able to draw FT’s inside by attacking off the dribble. One time he almost got all the way to the rim with a couple of dribbles and a spin move, but his shot attempt was violently rejected. This also inhibits his passing upside, as he shows nice promise as a passer but is never going to break down the defense and create for his teammates. The only pass attempt that I recall coming off the dribble (I’m sure there were others but I’m too lazy to review) was a lob in transition that was badly off the mark and deflected for a turnover.

This makes shot creation an issue for him. He’ll get off his fair share of 3’s but nobody can carry an offense with 3 point shooting alone. The non 3 point shooting attempts that he generated were mostly in the mid-range. He had some catch and shoot attempts, a step back jumper off the dribble (which he hit), a 10 foot floater off the dribble (which Nerlens goaltended), and even a couple of one legged fadeaways of which he hit at least one. But as a college player he was highly dependent on rim scoring, and I only counted two clean looks at the rim this summer: 1 breakaway dunk in transition, and 1 layup he converted on a backdoor cut. He thrived on cuts in college and needs to convert them at a higher rate to maximize his offensive skill set as a pro. Further, once you take away his FT’s from technicals and being fouled on 3’s, he only generated 3 FTA per game. He was called for a few charges and often turned it over when he tried to attack, and when he did get to the line he was normally dribbling into a crowd with not much good stuff brewing without the benefit of a whistle.

McDermott finished summer league 7/16 inside the arc, which is a stark constrast to Jabari Parker’s 24/51 or TJ Warren’s 34/64. Based on college stats they all appeared to be strong interior scorers, but it’s clear based on both stats and observation that TJ’s game translates awesomely, Jabari’s translates decently, and McDermott’s barely at all. You can discount the transition buckets that Warren and Parker got all you’d like, but they have the handles and physical capacity to look comfortable taking the ball coast to coast and finishing. Whenever McDermott handled the ball in the open court, he looked completely uncomfortable and would give it up before he crossed inside the 3 point arc. It seems that McBuckets just aren’t as easy to come by for his style of play against tougher competition. He’ll still get some mid-range shots off, and maybe he just needs to catch up to speed to get more rim shots off of cuts, but the early returns are fairly gloomy.

Defensively, I spent much of this past season trying to glean what McDermott’s non-existent steal and block totals mean, and I finally understand. In spite of his horrible physical tools, he does a surprisingly good job of staying in front of his man. He does so by giving enough space to make it hard for his opponent to blow by him. Consequently he never applies any pressure on the ball, and because he’s not long enough to deflect passes or strong enough to rip the ball away, he pretty much only gets steals when it falls into his lap. And even though he’s not crazy unathletic or laterally challenged, he still is rather slow to rotate and he pretty much never blocks shots playing help defense. He also rarely blocks shots in man since he gives space to the ball handler, but all of his whopping 3 summer league blocks came in man to man (although one of them appears to be due to generous scoring).

I think he’s smart enough, works hard enough, and moves his feet just barely well enough to not be the worst defensive player of all time. He definitely has a puncher’s chance of being passable enough to justify his offensive goodness. But at the same time he’s still going to be bad. He gets beat off the dribble plenty, and NBA players should be able to get off easy 3 point shots with the space he gives. He will be a liability in both man and team defense and it really puts the pressure on him to bring offensive goodness to the table to truly be a valuable piece.

The biggest problem with McDermott is that he just doesn’t have a single physical tool to lean on. He’s slow and unathletic, but he would have some intrigue if he had really long arms or was chiseled like Wally Szcerbiak. Unfortunately he has short arms and is about as muscular as the Pillsbury Doughboy. With his physical deficiencies it’s hard to see him thriving without a really unique offensive package, and the court being one giant hot spot just doesn’t seem like enough. He’d carry more intrigue if he had really slick handling and passing ability like Nik Stauskas, but man are his handles bad for a 22 year old lotto pick projected to score a bunch.

One note is he is definitely a SF in the NBA. He doesn’t have the size or strength to spend any time at all in the post, and he will get destroyed if he ever has to try to match up with Zach Randolph or Blake Griffin. The Clippers were highly physical with him and really pushed him off his spot at will, and he didn’t start playing well until he was able to match up with the soft defenses provided by Denver and Minnesota. But he moves his feet just barely well enough to give hope that he can hold his own on the perimeter, so that’s his best bet.

I feel like my pre-draft analysis was spot on and I’m sticking to my story. In fairness to McDermott, he gets compared to Adam Morrison quite a bit and he does seem to be a much better prospect since he’s a great shooter and Morrison was just a decent shooter who chucked. I had given McDermott an upside of SF version of JJ Redick, and that seems accurate. His features are that he spaces the floor, can probably develop a bit of a mid-range game, move the ball, and try his best to not be a disaster on defense. If he has any edge over Redick it’s that he can use his size to finish with greater frequency on cuts to the hoop, but based on his summer league showing I really would not be optimistic in McDermott’s ability to score frequently in the paint. Also he may become substantially worse than Redick, as his inability to dribble will likely impede him and at age 22 he doesn’t have a long window to get better. I stand by my assertions that McDermott can become something, but he’s a long shot to become something that is worth more than the MLE on the open market. That’s simply not something that you draft for in the lottery, as he’s at best worth a late 1st round or early 2nd round pick. He’s fun and has some compelling strengths, but his glaring limitations place a hard cap on his upside which is a really big deal in the draft.

TJ Warren Operates With Surgical Precision

20 Sunday Jul 2014

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TJ Warren’s pre-draft scouting report was that he is unathletic, can’t hit 3’s, plays questionable defense, never passes, and scores loads of buckets inside the arc for a SF punctuated by his incredible floater. This didn’t strike me as a lock bust because I have a soft spot for weirdos and you never know how they are going to translate. But I simply couldn’t envision how an unathletic wing dominates inside the arc against NBA competition without any other notable strengths, so I paid him little regard. This was a mistake, as the correct approach should have been to figure out how an unathletic wing dominated inside the arc in the NCAA. I finally got to scout him in summer league and I am completely captivated by his game.

The reasons why weird prospects have appeal is because they normally are doing something right that nobody else is, and you never know how their special skill interacts with NBA competition. This is especially true for scoring, as scoring comes in a wide range of styles and requires scouting to understand each player’s method of attack. This is triply true for TJ Warren, who has the most beautiful scoring game of any prospect I have ever watched.

You need to have some sort of special powers to dominate inside the arc the way TJ did, and it’s clear that his special powers are excellent footwork, coordination, and body control to go with feathery touch anywhere within 12 feet, especially when he’s on the run. He by far the most polished scoring prospect in the class. But what makes him exceptionally appealing is that he hardly ever wastes any time or motion at all with the ball. He has a knack for catching the ball in a position to score, as he can get where he’s going and get his shot off in 0 or 1 dribbles most of the time. If he’s taking 2 or more dribbles it’s because that’s the required amount of dribbles to get to the rim. Every time he dribbles it’s with direction and purpose. The one time I saw him dribble more than 2 times in the half-court: he tried to go left, it wasn’t there, he pulled back and waited for a screen, and then went right and crisply got off his floater. Even though plan A wasn’t there, he did no aimless dribbling, just pulled back and executed plan B. But every other time plan A worked for him and he got his shot off.

The precision that he operates with is stunning, and it also applies to his shot creation. He never wastes an opportunity to get off a quality shot. It has been noted that he racked up lots of transition baskets and putbacks, but that’s not a coincidence. He doesn’t crash the offensive glass for rebounds, he crashes for putbacks. He was able to get putbacks by tapping the ball in, catching the ball and putting it back while hanging in the air, and he even had a perfectly timed tip slam where the unathletic label appeared to be dead wrong.

I have been a common critique of transition scoring, but it doesn’t mean it should be totally discounted. If somebody dominates in transition there is a reason for it, and TJ’s offensive excellence shines through in transition. He bolts up the floor as soon as his team procures the defensive rebound, and once he catches the ball he is deadly. He doesn’t need to beat the defense down the floor, he gracefully steps around whatever defender is in the paint and lays it in. His floater helps as he can always find a way to get off a shot, and he’s so good on the run that he doesn’t require a getting all the way to the rim for a look to be good for him. This is a stark contrast to Andrew Wiggins’ style of beating his opponent down the floor for an uncontested dunk in college which did not translate to summer league.

In the half-court, he moves exceptionally well without the ball and scored on a handful of cuts to the rim. He excels at getting to spots on the floor where he can score as soon as he receives the ball. This is a stark contrast to Jabari Parker’s style of catching the ball, dribbling aimlessly, and chucking whatever comes his way. Other times he’ll attack and when he gets as far as he can he throws up a floater. It seems that he can get off a high volume of 40%+ shots without turning it over, and his floater is so good now who knows how high it peaks. Maybe he is able to generate an endless stream of 45-50% shots in his prime to make him an elite weapon in both transition and the half-court. His college mid-range scoring stats are phenomenal– he made 43.4% of non-rim 2’s as a sophomore and 45.3% for his career. That’s better than any other prospect in the draft, and way better than non-Doug McDermott prospects. It’s hard to say how many of these are on 5 foot runners that will be harder to create in the NBA vs. the widely available mid-range shots and 12 foot floaters, but it’s clear that his mid-range potential is pretty awesome. He also only had 1 shot blocked in summer league, and even without great size or length he has a feel for finding daylight in traffic.

He does take a fair amount of mid-range shots, and it’s not always in the smartest spots. For instance he took a pullup jumper one foot inside the arc in transition, and while he made it that’s not the best shot. While his level of efficiency with respect to movement and motion is pristine, he does not appear to have a machine like level of efficient decision making on the court.

Further, the concept of creating for others off the dribble appears to be a foreign concept to him. When he catches the ball on the perimeter and has nowhere to go he will quickly swing it to a teammate. And when he gets the ball in transition and feels a teammate has a better path to attack, he will give it up. His lone assist was on a transition alley oop to Archie Goodwin. He also had a nice pass in transition where he found his teammate two dribbles from the rim, although he did not get credited for the assist. But when he attacks off the dribble he’s doing it for himself, much like Andrew Wiggins. That said I don’t find it to be nearly as much of a turnoff, because I can’t say that this is an inefficient means of attacking. Wiggins can stagnate the offense and drain the shot clock by taking 10 dribbles before he decides he’s going nowhere and then kick it out. He can also turn it over by taking 10 dribbles, because that amount of motion creates a lot of opportunity for things to go wrong. But because Warren is so quick and incisive with his moves, he almost never turns it over, he almost always gets his shot off, and it appears to rarely have a worse outcome than a 40% floater. Warren’s form of black holing does not appear to be particularly harmful.

Defensively, it’s hard to say whether Warren will be above or below average for an NBA wing. He appears to be competent defensively, and he appears to want to be good. Jeff Hornacek noted that in their drills he successfully stopped a point guard, a small forward, and a center, showing off his versatility. He had a good steal rate in college and it shows as he has good anticipation in the passing lanes and quick hands. His size is solid for a SF: he is 6’8.25″ with somewhat short arms at 6’10.25″, but he’s a lean 220. I can’t definitively say he’s strong, but strength did not appear to be an issue for him as he proved adept at finishing through contact and never really got pushed around the same way that 6’8″ 218 pound Doug McDermott did. His athleticism appears to be solid. It stood out that he is quick to recover when beat. On one play he was beat on a backdoor cut and recovered for a block. On another play he went for a steal 1 on 2 in transition, and he even though he failed and the ball was passed forward to the rim, he was somehow able to recover for the block. I don’t really have much of a feel for his quickness, as he was certainly getting to his spots offensively but that may just be due to his precise movement. DX’s video shows him getting beat a number of times on the perimeter for NC State, although in fairness he was carrying an insane 35.5% usage. I feel like he has good defensive potential, but could also turn out to be not good at all on this end.

It is worth pondering the opportunity cost of his style of play. He consistently crashes the offensive boards, which is certainly worthwhile considering how good he is at putbacks. But it detracts from transition defense when he chooses to do that instead of hauling back the other way. And while he doesn’t seem to regularly cheat with his transition leaks, it might happen on occasion and be correlated with his lackluster DRB%. Also he only shot 31.5% from 3 and 65.4% from FT in college: it’s not certain that he can space the floor from beyond the NBA arc. If he’s playing on the perimeter without spacing or creating for others, how much does that adversely affect his teammates? I don’t think he’s wrong to constantly be seeking buckets since he’s so uniquely talented at it. But he may be a player who posts awesome stats but in reality is slightly less awesome due to all of the minor tradeoffs in his approach. It doesn’t make me like him any less, it is merely an idea to consider as he progresses.

The reason why this isn’t a particularly big deal to me is because it doesn’t impede his upside. He achieved such mastery of 2 point scoring at such a young age, it’s worth wondering if he can apply whatever talent helped him in the process to fill out the other areas of his game. For all of the perfect efficiencies of his interior attacking, his 3 point shot has poor mechanics as he doesn’t square up and often dips the ball down to his knees before releasing. If a shot doctor worked with him, why wouldn’t the coordination and precision that enables him to be so lethal also expedite the growth of his 3 point shot? Can he apply it to passing and defense as well? If so I would say his upside is exceptionally high.

He’s difficult to project, because players that take a lot of shots have large swings based on how many they make. It seems somebody who has a knack for creating high % garbage buckets and doesn’t take many shots worse than 40% or turn it over a bunch will likely score efficiently, but who knows how he will actually look in the NBA. Kelly Olynyk had a similarly feathery touch in the paint that dominated summer league, and it took him a couple of months to get up to speed with the NBA game. Perhaps Warren struggles similarly or never gets fully up to speed at all. Also it’s hard to say what to expect of his 3 point shooting, passing, and defense. He is right on the fence where he could become a spacer, or he could not. He appears to have the smarts to become a good passer, but I’m not sure if it’s something that will actually happen or is even necessary given his style. His defense is a bit of a mystery too. If it becomes good he can more than offset the opportunity cost of his o-reb crashes and transition leakouts. But if he becomes bad he could be a Kevin Martin type player who isn’t good due to offsetting his scoring efficiency by being bad at everything else.

Overall I feel that he’s probably going to be good, and he has a realistic possibility of becoming great. Whether his approach is conscious or natural, his ability to maximize easy buckets and minimize wasted motion to create endless 40%+ shots requires a truly elite feel for the game. He is a unique player with a unique talent, and if he becomes great he will provide a hopelessly optimistic comparison for every crappy mid-range gunner prospect that ever enters the draft in the future. He’s clearly the best scoring prospect in the draft, and he is an awesome value at 14th overall that makes me like Ryan McDonough and want to forgive him for taking Alex Len over Nerlens Noel. I think Sam Hinkie made a big mistake by taking Dario Saric over Warren, and the Bulls made a bigger mistake by drafting Doug McDermott to be fix their scoring woes when such a superior scoring prospect (who also might play defense!) was available. I don’t know precisely where I’d re-rank him on a re-draft, but the only player who I’m certain is more talented is Joel Embiid. I think TJ is good and Suns fans should feel good and I feel bad that I didn’t bother to scout him before the draft. All that’s left now is to root for him to rock and spread the nickname of “The Surgeon” since that’s how he handles his business on offense.

Summer League Scouting Report: Andrew Wiggins

19 Saturday Jul 2014

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Wiggins’ strength is the same as it was before: he has super athleticism. He has used this to develop an effective step back jumpshot, as his athleticism makes it so easy for him to create separation with the defender that he can get this whenever he wants. He showcased this move a bit in college, but it appears to be notably improved with the help of P3. And while his handles aren’t reliable enough to get to the hoop at will, his first step is so explosive that he can still get there sometimes. Against the Rockets he had two attacks that stood out: he crossed up Nick Johnson and he put a ball fake on Robert Covington, both times he went straight to the rim and got fouled for free throws. He still didn’t show much ability to finish off the dribble other than his vicious dunk against Philly, but he seems to be fine finishing at the rim when he isn’t dribbling. This is a good sign for him playing in an offense that stresses ball movement and cutting with LeBron James as the primary handler. He didn’t score a ton of buckets off of cuts, but he was moving off the ball and he did get at least a few assisted rim FG’s.

It’s clear that he is uniquely talented at getting where he wants to go on the court. This is especially true on defense where he doesn’t need to dribble a basketball in the process. He finished summer league with 5 steals and 6 blocks in 4 games, and his ability to get places combined with being 6’8″ and a 7’0″ wingspan makes it easy for him to make plays on that end. He’s in a similar boat to Marcus Smart and Aaron Gordon in that his offense is a work in progress, but he has an easy ticket to usefulness on the defensive end.

In spite of his tantalizing athleticism, I always felt Wiggins had underachiever written all over him and the warning signs were apparent in summer league. If I was coaching him, I would forget the idea of using him as a ball handler and tell him to focus on moving off the ball, passing to his teammates, launching 3’s, rebounding, and defense. I’d make him watch endless film Kawhi Leonard and channel him on the floor. But because everybody loves scoring so very much, the folks at P3 just HAD to find a way to leverage his athleticism into scoring ability. So they equipped him with a step back jumper which Wiggins can make and seems to love taking. There is value to getting off a 38% shot whenever you want, but it is dangerous to rely on heavily. This is especially true when Wiggins literally never tries to create for his teammates off the dribble, which isn’t good for somebody who dribbles often.

His decision tree once he catches the ball appears to be 1) try to get to the rim and flail for free throws 2) if he can’t get to the rim launch a step back jumper 3) if he’s not feeling the step back, swing it back out to the nearest player on the perimeter. None of it flows within the team concept, and it’s highly Rudy Gay-ish. Rudy Gay is one of the all-time NBA cancers since he pounds the ball into the ground, doesn’t see his teammates, and launches too many step back jumpers. Wiggins has been compared to him in terms of temperament, and it is not a good sign that he appears to enjoy Rudy’s style of play in summer league. It doesn’t mean that he necessarily will be as bad as Rudy Gay, since he is more athletic and they are not the precisely same person. But more athleticism and a few extra free throw attempts still don’t make Rudy Gay a useful basketball player since he plays a losing style. The Cavaliers offense looked notably better and more efficient with awesome ball movement in the game Wiggins missed. He simply needs to be directed away from the Rudy Gay style and toward the Kawhi Leonard path. A good start would be developing an interest in creating for his teammates, since every great offensive wing ever has learned to do this. The good news is that if he stays in Cleveland with LeBron and Blatt, he probably isn’t going to launch endless stepbacks and he might develop in the good areas. But the warning signs are there and of course I am going to make note of them.

I get that people want to mold Wiggins into T-Mac due to the athletic similarities, but T-Mac had a much more natural feel for the game and it’s wrong to force Wiggins down that path. T-Mac was younger as an NBA rookie than Wiggins was as an NCAA freshman and posted a better ORB%, DRB%, stl%, blk%, and greater than a 2x better assist:TOV rate playing against vastly tougher competition. My personal opinion: the vision, feel, and willingness to create for others plays a large role in the difference between T-Mac and Rudy Gay, which is why it feels icky to move Wiggins down this path. He can still be a tremendously useful NBA player without offering much isolation scoring.

The other issue for Wiggins is that his defense was not good in the game I scouted vs. the Rockets. He had a nice chase down block of Nick Johnson after a turnover, but other than that here are the plays on which he was tested:

-He cuts off Nick Johnson in transition. Johnson instead circles back and goes around a screen which Wiggins gets caught on trying to go over, and Johnson gets off uncontested floater from mid-range that he makes.
-He is isolated vs. 6’0″ Isaiah Canaan in transition. Canaan goes straight at Wiggins, pump fakes in mid-air, and puts the ball in over him.-Wiggins tries to stop Geron Johnson in transition, but runs into his own teammate in the process and watches Johnson get uncontested layup
-Geron Johnson blows by Wiggins on perimeter, dishes it to teammate underneath the hoop who kicks it out to open 3 point shooter who hits.
-Luke Hancock gets ball underneath the rim. Wiggins rotates as sole help defender but doesn’t contest. Just stands behind him and lets him get shot off. The layup badly missed, but that’s an area where Wiggins could have gotten a block with more aggressiveness.
-Isaiah Canaan isolates onto Wiggins in half-court near the end of the game. Goes right at him, gets all the way to the rim and finishes over Wiggins.

When I watched him in college it wasn’t that he didn’t try on defense. He executed his assignments and he was woefully difficult to get past off the dribble since he moves so well laterally. But I feel like he kind of floated and didn’t bring a playmaking fervor that indicated that he wants to get a stop at any cost. I felt it reflected in his steal and block rates, it reflected in his team success, and the narratives that he is a lock ++++++ defender were completely silly. He is so athletic that he didn’t get exposed a whole bunch, but now that he’s facing better athletes his lack of intensity on that end is starting to show a bit.

This is not to say that he will necessarily be a bad defensive player as a pro. With his athletic ability he doesn’t need perfect effort and instincts to make a positive impact, and he has plenty of time to improve. Also I may have happened to catch his worst defensive game, as everybody who watched his prior game gave him rave reviews and he obviously made more good plays with 3 steals and 2 blocks. This is just a friendly reminder that there isn’t a 100% correlation between athleticism and defense, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves locking him in as a super elite wing stopper. And the expectations that he will be a stud defensive player as a rookie are completely unrealistic. Isaiah Canaan is a 6’0″ 2nd round pick who thrives on shooting and is 13/32 inside the arc in his NBA career– if he can beat Wiggins off the dribble (which is what he thrived at preventing in college) then a whole bunch of other NBA players probably can too. Wiggins is only 19 and has plenty of room to learn and catch up to speed, but rookies are generally bad defensively and it doesn’t appear that Wiggins will be an exception.

Another defensive note is that Wiggins struggled to corral defensive rebounds, accruing just 6 in 120 minutes. He wasn’t a great defensive rebounder in college, but I felt that had something to do with Kansas being heavy on bigs who stole rebounds from him. He was a pretty good offensive rebounder in college, so I still think he should be fine defensively in the pros. I did notice him trying to leak out in transition too soon, watching the rebounding action from 8 feet away, and getting a defensive rebound knocked away due to his lack of strength. But Kevin Durant also struggled to rebound during summer league, so I’d rather wait to see him rebound over a larger NBA sample before reading into it. It may just be bad variance.

Overall I feel like Wiggins’ summer league perfectly displayed why his is so polarizing as a prospect. He showed what he can do athletically, as he racked up steals, blocks, and effortlessly created space to get off his jump shots. He also was able to use his athleticism to draw a high volume of fouls as well as have an explosive finish on a drive to the hoop. But he also showed signs of disappointment, with the complete disinterest in creating for others and the lack of domination defensively and rebounding. And while I loved him attempting 8 threes in his first game, I hated that he only tried 5 and operated more heavily in the mid-range in the following 3. It’s pretty obvious why there is such a wide range of opinions on him, and who knows what will win out between his super tools and his Rudy Gay like tendencies.

I don’t have any new predictions to add, he’s roughly treading water in my mind. I will add that Cleveland seems like an exceptionally favorable environment for him to develop in, since I doubt he will be allowed to chuck endless step-backs with LeBron and Kyrie in place as superior ball handlers. Blatt seems like a possibly good coach, and I’m interested to see how well he develops playing off the ball in an offense that stresses ball movement and cutting with two good shot creators. It seems that should force him to develop his Kawhi skills, and even if he never becomes a true go to star he could still land in the clouds as an awesome role player. On the other hand, if he gets traded to Minnesota and plays for Flip Saunders on a lottery team I do not like his odds of succeeding. He will almost certainly be pushed down the T-Mac path, which isn’t right for him.

I still have Wiggins as my #5 prospect behind Embiid, Smart, Gordon, and Exum. I feel I witnessed both the ways in which he can exceed my expectations and the ways in which my initial hypotheses may be proven correct. To me the interesting bits to track are 1) how high does he peak defensively 2) does he ever develop into a quality passer and 3) how much do LeBron and Blatt aid his development? I’d also like to see how much his free throw drawing translates to the NBA and whether he can learn to consistently get to the rim and finish off the dribble. But those are less interesting than his ability to become a super role player, which is where I believe the real value lies within him.

Summer League Scouting Report: Jabari Parker

19 Saturday Jul 2014

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I have been tweeting negative statements about Jabari all week, and after his 20 point, 15 rebound finale Bucks fans may be hoping I have some positive takeaway from the performance that he can build on. Unfortunately I do not. After watching him play against competition on his level of size and athleticism for 5 games, I have nothing but disdain for his summer league play. If you’re a Bucks fan who prefers to think happy thoughts, it may not be the best idea to read on.

Statistically, Jabari did alright. He only shot 2/11 from 3, but he made 47% of 2 point attempts and attempted 34 FT’s in 5 games. He finished averaging 15.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.2 steals in 28.6 mpg which are all good numbers for a 19 year old. But I’m less interested in the stats themselves than I am how they were accrued, so let’s tabulate. He converted 24 FG’s inside the arc:

8 were in transition. 4 of them were breakaway dunks. 1 was a dunk after he blew by his man before the help defense was set. 2 of them were coast to coast finishes against Cleveland and he was fouled on one of them. The other was when he caught Phoenix napping on free throws by hanging by his basket and getting a layup with 1 second left in the quarter.

5 of them were halfcourt attempts at the rim. 1 was a dunk following an offensive rebound. 1 was him bullying Andrew Wiggins when they were isolated in the post w/ no help. 3 were nice attacks from the perimeter where he finished at the rim.

The other 11 were all mid-range shots. Most of them were ugly, off balance attempts preceded by too much dribbling. I believe he was fortunate to make as many as he did. Two of them were goaltended. This is also where most of his misses came from, although he missed some decent shots at the rim that were contested as well.

Let’s assess what talent went into creating these shots. The breakaway dunks are mostly because he is mindful to leak out when he sees the opportunity, and he also has the defensive instincts to pick off some passes and take it the other way and finish. The coast to coast attacks I feel exemplify his talent: he isn’t that athletic, but for a fat man he is fairly explosive and is comfortable handling the ball in the open court. These are baskets that somebody like Doug McDermott could never dream of creating.

This is further exemplified by his rim finishes. He didn’t excel at getting to the rim, but given enough attempts he got there a few times and was able to finish. Again, he has enough handling, athleticism, and scoring instincts to be a competent at creating and finishing quality shots on occasion. This isn’t exactly a foundation for offensive dominance, but it’s something to build on.

Bullying the 6’8″ 200 pound Wiggins was Jabari’s bread and butter in college, as some weaker opponents featured centers of that size and he beat them up and dunked all over them. Given that Wiggins is a SG/SF in the NBA, these opportunities dried up in summer league and Parker was only able to generate one bucket of this ilk. On most occasions when he gets matched up vs. a Wiggins type, help defense will be there to prevent it from being so easy.

His mid-range performance was particularly putrid. Parker would often catch the ball, attack, and when he could only get within 8-12 feet from the basket he’d launch off balance jumpers that normally brick. A number of them actually went in, but that was largely luck. He’s not creating 38-40% shots, these are at best low 30’s and sometimes even in the 20’s. Not to mention that he stops the ball and kills any flow of the offense to create these. He is big and athletic enough to get a number of these off, but they are such a horrible use of any possession that it’s a big drag on the offense if he insists on taking 5 per game. And it’s not like he can just cut these out and everything is peachy– these shot attempts are the opportunity cost of his attacks that actually made it all the way to the rim as well as his FT attempts. These shots aren’t only indicative of his willingness to submarine the offense by stopping the ball and taking poor shots, they are also indicative of his inability to create quality shots with any regularity.

Also a number of his FTA came from poor offense. Against the Cavaliers he was fouled on a couple of horrible mid-range shot attempts. Against the Warriors he had one foul where his opponent played perfect defense standing upright with his hands up while Jabari triple clutched and threw up a shot against the underside of the backboard and fell down. The official couldn’t believe that the #2 overall pick missed a shot that badly without getting fouled and blew the whistle. On another occasion Parker ripped down a defensive rebound, dribbled around for a while, and then attacked the rim where 3 defenders converged on him and one of them hacked him for FT’s with 11 seconds on the shot clock. While the outcome was good, he wasn’t getting anywhere without the fortunate foul and he took 13 seconds of dribbling in the process.

Further it’s a misnomer to call him a stretch 4. He takes 3’s sometimes, but he currently doesn’t take or make enough 3’s to be a spacer compared to how much time he spends inside or pounding the air out of the ball on the perimeter. He ran bad to only make 2 out of 11, but he needs to attempt more than two 3’s a game to truly space the floor. (EDIT: apparently this is wrong, since 1 3PA/100 possessions is all that is needed for bigs to space the floor. But his high ratio of poor mid-range shots to 3PA is currently looking like it will make it difficult for him to score with efficiency.)

Parker did show some willingness to pass. My perception is that he sees the floor fairly well and can tell when his teammates are in a favorable position to receive the ball, and he does enjoy occasionally setting up a teammate for an easy bucket. But his passing is also a work in progress, as a number of his passes ended up nowhere near his intended target for turnovers. And he still doesn’t pass nearly as much as he should, since he has a laser focused passion on getting buckets. He often decides to attack and shows no sign of reconsideration once he puts the ball on the floor. Consequently he finished with 7 assists and 25 turnovers.

I didn’t pay particularly close attention to his defense but when I did notice him on that end it was normally not good. He looks slow to rotate and his quicks caused him to struggle to stay in front of his man. Perhaps if I reviewed the tape diligently he wouldn’t look that bad. But given all of the energy he invests into his offensive game as well as his physical limitations, it’s hard to see him becoming a good pro defensive player and easy to see him becoming a sieve.

Ultimately it’s easy to see why Jabari was able to achieve such high RSCI and draft ratings: he is highly competitive with a superstar personality, a knack for scoring, and he’s capable of getting buckets from anywhere. But it’s also the same reason why he’s going to disappoint as a pro. I love competitive players, and it’s great when players like Marcus Smart channel their competitiveness to dominate defensively. But when Jabari gets mad and wants to win, he channels it by black holing it up and chucking awful shots, so his competitiveness works against him. While he is capable of scoring from anywhere he doesn’t have a single hot spot. And he creates cold spots by willfully launching the most difficult shots imaginable. Sometimes these go in, which make him seem all the more impressive when scouting him in HS/college when he has access to transition + bullyball buckets that make his overall stat line look good. So he gets 5 dunks, a 3 pointer, and an off balance Dirk shot from midrange as well as a handful of FT attempts, and he deceives observers into thinking that he’s a future NBA star. In reality he doesn’t really have a go to creation move. He doesn’t have Durant’s go go gadget arms, he doesn’t have Melo’s quick release, he doesn’t even have Wiggins’ super athleticism to create loads of space with step backs. He merely has the size, strength, and athleticism to get off a high volume of contested, off balance shots from mid-range that aren’t likely to go in. He still wasn’t the most efficient scorer in college, so as his volume of poor shots increases and his dunk volume decreases, it stands to reason that his NBA efficiency might get ugly.

Parker does have enough going on to become something, but I don’t think he’s a top 5 talent. While he’s decently explosive, his athleticism isn’t great and it’s largely offset by his lack of quicks that inhibit his perimeter defense and half-court creation. While his size and strength is good, he’s just barely big enough to play PF and this probably contributed to his deception. Much of his low level dominance can be chalked up to him physically developing sooner than his peers. His ability to score efficiently in the NBA largely hinges on the development of his shot making ability. But even if he becomes adept at making outside shots, he still plays an abhorrent style of offense that is not conducive to winning. He doesn’t seem to grasp that ball movement is a thing that matters on offense, and he also doesn’t seem to grasp that it hurts his team when he misses an awful shot or turns it over. As badly as he wants to win, he’s not going to succeed at it so long as he continues to go about it the wrong way. His style is the antithesis of what the Spurs do, which is a strong sign that it’s suboptimal. It’s nice that he’s a great rebounder for his size, but overall his non-scoring game isn’t too great considering his current lack of defense, passing, and floor spacing.

There is a case to be made that it’s just summer league, his teammates aren’t all that good, and teams are willing to let players play inefficiently to see what they have to offer. It’s just not a case that strikes me as likely to be true based on his college play. He started off by looking great in non-conference play: he was making his shots from everywhere, he was sharing the ball with his teammates, and none of his weaknesses were evident yet. But then he started to get exposed when conference play began, defenses became tougher, and games became tighter. Aside from the fact that his outside shots stopped falling, he started passing less and taking bad shots more. At first I thought maybe he was just adjusting to more athletic competition, or maybe he was just pressing due to being in a slump. Based on all of the reviews of his intelligence and feel for the game, I kept waiting for him to adjust to the tougher competition and adjust his game. It never happened, and by the end of the season I was done expecting good things from him. As a Duke fan, the toughest part of the Mercer loss was that I couldn’t place the biggest bet of my life on Jarnell Stokes and the Tennessee defense forcing Jabari into endless difficult shots and winning as a likely underdog. But instead Jabari turned on the cancer a game early when his teammates were creating an endless supply of 40% 3 point shots since he simply he had to get his 30% 2 point attempts off from mid-range. I was actually nervous that he was going to stay in college and ruin the 2014-15 team just like he did this past year’s team, so I decided to follow my strongly negative subconscious feelings and drop him on my draft board. Now that it appears that he’s taking the same hero ball approach to his NBA career that he did in college, I am done squinting for signs of change. Wake me up when it actually happens.

He still has some shot of becoming a useful fantasy player, but the combination of limited talent and horribly inefficient style of play is brutal for an actual NBA team that is trying to win. At this point I’d handicap his future to be something like this:

10% Carmelo Anthony
45% Glenn Robinson
45% Evan Turner/Derrick Williams hybrid

I would not take that player in the lottery. Aside from the fact that I feel I am stretching my optimism to its boundary by giving him 10% Melo equity, I believe it’s a crappy upside since I don’t think Melo is nearly as valuable to winning as his box score stats suggest. The other outcomes are completely worthless. Even though Glenn Robinson posted a 17.5 career PER, I don’t perceive him as a useful player since you need to be much more efficient than he was to black hole it up on offense, not play defense, and still make a positive impact. And if Jabari hits his downside, he’s contending for worst player in the NBA.

The only way Parker actually becomes a winning player is if he somehow sees the light and massively improves his defense, passing, and shot selection (which would give him value that the aforementioned comparisons lack), but he showed no signs of this at Duke and doesn’t seem that interested in it based on summer league. Perhaps he can be the one to prove me wrong, but I think this is just who he naturally is and I am not one to bet on a person changing his nature, especially not when his nature has earned him such positive feedback up to now. And even if that miraculously happens, I still don’t think he has crazy high upside like Andrew Wiggins would if he suddenly “gets it.” As of right now I feel that Jabari Parker was comfortably the worst pick in the draft, and he very well may be the most harmful player in the NBA in 2014-2015.

A few notes before Bucks fans hate and unfollow me

I assume I’ll get some comments like “cool out man, it’s just summer league.” My negativity regarding Jabari may not be fully warranted, he had elite recruiting pedigree, elite draft pedigree, and posted good stats at both Duke and during summer league. These signs generally point toward a player being good, and even the sideline reporter Alie LaForce was gloating about how big of a mistake it was for the Cavs to take Wiggins over Parker when Jabari went off yesterday (I’m a huge Wiggins critic but at this point I take Wiggins over Jabari in a heartbeat). But considering all of the macro information suggesting good potential for him, I just don’t feel it when I watch him play. I’m publishing this as a test of my scouting aptitude. I never watched Evan Turner or Derrick Williams much in college, but based on their stats they seemed like totally reasonable selections at #2 overall. But stats never tell the full story so I’d like to see if I can pick out these disappointments before they are obvious to the untrained eye.  And if Jabari actually becomes good, at least I will know in the future that these signs aren’t a full fledged death knell. But I’m a gambler and I like going out on limbs, and this is the one limb that I really feel like going overboard on from summer league. So let’s see how it all works out. In the meantime I wouldn’t mind hearing devil’s advocate cases in the comments regarding what lack of negatives or presence of positives set Jabari apart from the Williams/Turner types.