Now that the lottery order is determined, I may as well whip up a mock draft. I don’t have Chad Ford’s inside sources, but I have some sweet guesses which I assume will be of similar accuracy.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers- Jabari Parker, SF/PF
Who knows what the Cavaliers will do with this pick now that Chris Grant is no longer calling the shots. I imagine that Cleveland will play it safe and pick from the Wiggins, Embiid, Parker trio after Chris Grant had limited success with making fancy reaches. They are likely starting to feel pressure to add another star to appease Kyrie and avoid having him walk just as LeBron did, so it stands to reason that they will try to avoid any big risks. This makes Embiid the least likely pick of the trio (even if I believe he is the correct one), especially if he refuses to share his medical records to prevent Cleveland from taking him. I imagine they covet both Parker and Wiggins, but Jabari is often pitched as the safest prospect in the draft and it would not be surprising if Cleveland bought that narrative. So Jabari it is.
Note that I would not be surprised to see Cleveland shop the pick for Kevin Love if he indicated that he was OK staying longterm. But he would have to be extremely fond of Kyrie for this to happen.
2. Milwaukee Bucks- Andrew Wiggins, SF
It sounds like Embiid’s agent is specifically trying to steer him away from Milwaukee by refusing to share his medical records. Would the Bucks take him anyway? That would be a bold move that would impress me. But I think they more likely play it safe and take whicher of Parker and Wiggins are available. In this mock, it’s Wiggins.
3. Philadelphia 76ers- Joel Embiid, C
I imagine that this is the absolute latest Embiid drops. Hinkie has only had his job for a year but I have been highly impressed with him and think he’s far too intelligent to pass up Embiid. He already demonstrated that he was willing to gamble on an injured Nerlens Noel last year, and it actually works out well to pair them together. When both are healthy they can split the center minutes, and in a way they hedge each other’s injury risk. If one stays healthy and becomes a star, they build him alongside MCW. If they both stay healthy and become stars, they can experiment with playing them together or trade the inferior one. If Embiid is unavailable I would expect Hinkie to target Exum or Parker.
4. Orlando Magic- Dante Exum PG
It makes sense that Orlando would take a PG here, and as luck would have it my top 2 available players in this scenario are both PG’s. Incidentally, Orlando seems interested in both of them as well. I am going with Exum for them here because he seems to be the better, more coveted prospect. But it wouldn’t surprise me if they tried to trade down to #6 with Boston and snag Marcus Smart there. I’d be happy with either as a Magic fan, and I imagine they will walk away with one of them.
5. Utah Jazz- Noah Vonleh, PF
This is where the draft gets fuzzy. They Jazz could look at any of Noah Vonleh, Aaron Gordon, or Marcus Smart. I could be mistaken but I believe they are smart enough to pass on Randle. I’d be somewhat surprised if they tried pairing Smart with Burke, and Vonleh seems like a more Jazz type of player than Gordon. He pairs well with Favors as he can space the floor to balance Favors’ rim protection, and they get a nice 3 way big man rotation with him and Enes Kanter. It’s a reasonable selection that makes sense.
6. Boston Celtics- Marcus Smart PG
It wouldn’t surprise me to see them shop this pick along with Jared Sullinger and/or Kelly Olynyk and lesser picks for Kevin Love. They would pair Rondo with Love and still have a number of future Nets picks to trade for a 3rd superstar. But they may not be willing to outbid the competition, and Love may not have faith in the Celtics’ ability to rebuild to a contender overnight. In that instance I believe that Marcus Smart and Aaron Gordon are the top two choices for Boston since Danny Ainge loves competitive, defensive minded prospects and both qualify. Jusuf Nurkic also looms as a sleeper candidate in this slot. My best guess is that Ainge either takes Smart and keeps him for himself or flips him plus another pick to Orlando for Dante Exum.
7. Los Angeles Lakers- Aaron Gordon, SF
As much as the Lakers would love to trade this pick for Kevin Love, it sounds like Kevin Love may not want to play with washed up Kobe + nothing. Further, the Wolves likely won’t be interested in just the #7 pick. So they likely will be unable to acquire him. Instead they may shift to trading for a less pricey superstar such as Rajon Rondo, who will be on the block if the Celtics cannot procure Love themselves and especially so if they land Exum or Smart. Regardless of who is picking in this slot, Aaron Gordon is a fine selection since he is rated highly and is one of the top players available.
8. Sacramento Kings- Julius Randle, PF
Are the Kings the team to bite the bullet on Julius Randle? It seems plausible that they may. He can slide right into their starting lineup between Gay and Cousins at PF. If Marcus Smart or Aaron Gordon isn’t available I’m not sure who else they may consider. Perhaps Dario Saric?
9. Charlotte Hornets- Doug McDermott, SF
Adam Morrison, Cody Zeller, Kemba Walker. The Hornets love drafting upperclassmen who post big numbers in college, so they seem vulnerable to biting the Ougie bullet.
10. Philadelphia 76ers- Jusuf Nurkic, C
Yeah, I know I already had Philly draft Embiid. But I’d like to point out a couple of things 1) If Philly doesn’t land Embiid at #3, I imagine Hinkie is likely to take Nurkic 2) Even if they do land Embiid, Hinkie might be a “take the best player and figure it out later type.” Bear in mind that Nurkic and Embiid are both inexperienced and foul prone, so neither will likely need > 24 mpg as a rookie. Nerlens can play alongside them as a PF, and then the guys all hedge each other. If they all pan out, they get a glut of trade chips.
If Philly doesn’t want to go with the plan of having their 3 top prospects all being centers, it’s hard to say who they would pick here. I imagine they would look at KJ McDaniels, Nik Stauskas, Kyle Anderson, and maybe Kristaps Porzingis if he keeps his name in the draft.
11. Denver Nuggets- Zach LaVine, SG
I have no idea what the Nuggets would like to do here. Kyle Anderson and Dario Saric may be candidates to be picked, except they have a glut of forwards between Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, JJ Hickson, and Wilson Chandler. Whether they let them impact this pick is anybody’s guess. But they need a SG and seem to be the type of team that may be seduced by Zach Lavine’s upside, so let’s roll with that. Nik Stauskas also may be on their radar.
12. Orlando Magic- Nik Stauskas, SF
This is a good spot to take Stauskas. If they are pairing either Smart or Exum with Oladipo, they could use some shooting to balance out the backcourt and Stauskas has the size to play SF. He also gives them a touch of extra PG skills, which is especially nice if they land Smart and don’t have a true floor general. He should go around here and is a nice fit, so I like this idea for Orlando.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves- Dario Saric, SF
Who knows what criteria Flip uses to evaluate talent, not to mention we have no idea whether their roster will look significantly different after a Kevin Love trade. But SF is their weak link and this is a bit later than the wisdom of the crowd says Saric should go, so I could see Flip biting.
14. Phoenix Suns- KJ McDaniels, SF
I didn’t love the Len pick over Nerlens, but McDonough had a great rookie year as Suns’ GM nevertheless. KJ is currently undervalued and I can see McDonough falling in love with him as a PJ Tucker upgrade.
15. Atlanta Hawks- Tyler Ennis, PG
Man are there a ton of teams set on PG ahead of Atlanta. Ennis has a strong chance of being available, and I could see Atlanta taking either him or Elfrid Payton with hopes that they can eventually upgrade Jeff Teague. They also may give Clint Capela, Kristaps Porzingis, or Nikola Jokic a look since they showed last year that they are unafraid to take internationals.
16. Chicago Bulls- Kyle Anderson, SF/PF
This pick is likely ending up in Minnesota’s hands if Chicago deals for Kevin Love, but if they keep it I can see them taking Kyle Anderson. They badly need shot creation, and Kyle Anderson gives the a point forward to run the offense so they don’t have to rely on DJ Augustin if Rose can’t make a strong comeback. He’s got a little bit of Toni Kukoc in him so it seems fitting in a way that he would land on the Bulls.
17. Boston Celtics- Clint Capela, PF/C
If they don’t land Smart or Exum early, I believe the Celtics would take either Tyler Ennis or Elfrid Payton here. They also have a strong chance of taking KJ McDaniels if he is available. Since none of those are options based on prior picks, let’s go with Clint Capela since the Celtics badly need rim protection to pair with Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk. Danny Ainge normally doesn’t take internationals in round 1, but Capela may not be a bad time to start. He may also consider Kyle Anderson, Spencer Dinwiddie, or Jordan Adams in this slot.
18. Phoenix Suns- Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C
Porzingis is a good flier at this slot to be the heir apparent to Channing Frye. Phoenix may also consider PJ Hairston or Spencer Dinwiddie as a floor spacer to pairing with Dragic and Bledsoe.
19. Chicago Bulls- Elfrid Payton, PG
Gotta have a contigency plan for Rose not recovering and Payton is great value here. They really should try to emerge from this draft with one of Ennis or Payton if they don’t trade their picks for Love. Gary Harris also makes sense if they think Rose can comeback, as Rose is big enough to cross match onto SG’s and Harris’s spacing and shot creation would fit a Bulls’ need.
20. Toronto Raptors- Jordan Adams, SG/SF
Not an obvious selection here. They may have a tough time with this pick if Phoenix, Atlanta, Boston, and Chicago pluck their board dry. This may be the right time to gamble on Adams’ gaudy stats. Spencer Dinwiddie would also be a decent idea for the Raptors here.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder- Gary Harris, SG
Gary Harris makes a ton of sense here. I have him sliding due to his poor height, but Oklahoma City can afford to bite the bullet since they have a big PG in Westbrook who can match up with SG’s. Harris could even replace Reggie Jackson as the backup PG if they cannot extend him and avoid the tax.
22. Memphis Grizzlies- PJ Hairston, SF
PJ Hairston serves the dual purpose of stealing minutes from Tayshaun Prince and supplying Memphis with much needed spacing. He is a great fit.
23. Utah Jazz- Spencer Dinwiddie, SG
Dinwiddie would be good value at this slot and he pairs well with Trey Burke in the backcourt. Utah could run a 3 guard rotation with Dinwiddie, Burke, and Alec Burks.
24. Charlotte Hornets- James Young, SF
Man, James Young really slid in this mock didn’t he? Charlotte already has their college hero so I can see them gambling on Young’s scoring upside.
25. Houston Rockets- Damien Inglis, SF/PF
Tough spot for Morey here since I didn’t leave any juicy sliders for him. Inglis makes a boatload of sense since he has good tools and he has could be a great fit alongside Dwight Howard as a stretch 4. He seems like the type of gamble that Morey could be into without any statistical darlings on the board.
26. Miami Heat- Shabazz Napier, PG
Let’s face it, the Heat to surround LeBron with shooting and Norris Cole isn’t cutting it as a backup PG. Napier gives them another Chalmers type to space the floor, he’s ready to contribute off the bat, and he’s not bad value here.
27. Phoenix Suns- Mitch McGary, C
McGary gives Phoenix a 3rd flier at center to battle with Alex Len and Miles Plumlee to become the future starter.
28. Los Angeles Clippers- Jarnell Stokes, PF
The Clippers badly need a backup big man, and Stokes projects to be similar to Big Baby Davis except better at everything. So it’s a good fit.
29. Oklahoma City- Jerami Grant, PF
Grant has slid quite a bit in this mock, perhaps OKC believes they can capitalize on his tools and mold him into a player.
30. San Antonio Spurs- Nikola Jokic, C
Jokic is a super skilled Euro big man who I have as the best player available. It qualifies as something the Spurs would be into.
Dean On Draft 
Your thoughts on Jay Bilas’ thoroughly researched top ten? Personally I laughed, then got I got extremely angry. ESPN is too edgy for me.
You totally copped out with the Sixers 10 pick.
No way they take Nurkic after taking Embiid. No shot whatsoever. They would set themselves back years if they did this.
Yeah I sorta did. I think there’s a slim chance they might try it, but it’s really forced fit.
I legit have no idea what Philly does at #10 with Embiid in hand. Probably one of Stauskas/KJ/Kyle but not sure which one Hinkie would favor since none of them are obviously great values there.
As a sixers fan, I would be ecstatic with Embiid at #3. At that point, anything at #10 would be gravy. #10 is kind of an odd spot though, almost a dead zone in the draft where the top guys are gone but guys I like (Kyle/KJ) would be considered “reaches.” Would be fine with Nurkic provided he gets stashed in Europe for one more season. Disagree this would set the franchise back years. With Embiid/Noel injury risk, it’s not a bad idea at all to stockpile bigs. Also slight possibility one of the top 7 falls to 10, or more likely imo, Hinkie moves up or down using all of those 2nd rounders and potentially Thad Young.
Good point about Nurkic being stashed in Europe potentially. Also it wouldn’t be a bad idea to try to move up for Vonleh or Gordon, although I wouldn’t give up Thad to accomplish this.
I agree that the problem with all of the guys who fit like Kyle/KJ/Stauskas are all somewhat meh value at #10. This is actually a slot where it would make sense for Philly to trade down if they can.
With Embiid in hand Clint Capela, PF/C, Jerami Grant, PF or James Young, SF at number 10, The first two are very good team players, not sure about Young but he is a bluechip player who is very athletic who would work well with Carter-Williams. Note all three are forwards with defensive ability to cover people. However Noel with the knee injury is a lost cause (severe leg injuries at the beginning of your career won’t cut it particularity when you are a fundamentally unsound player).
James Young has physical defensive ability but he projects to be below average on that end nevertheless because he has bad instincts and I’m not sure it’s a priority for him to become good defensively. 10th overall is way too early for Jerami Grant, as he doesn’t have enough defensive upside to justify his complete and utter lack of shooting that soon. Capela could be an alright pick, but I think once Hinkie has Embiid, Noel, and Carter-Williams he is likely going to want to balance that out with shooting.
The ideal way to build around Embiid is to have 4 shooters to space the floor and either single cover him in the post or let him beat you finding shooters on the perimeter with his passing. Since MCW can’t shoot you would want wings who can and then you can play Thad as a stretch 4. I don’t think Capela fits that well unless BOTH Embiid and Nerlens bust.
To be honest Philly might be best off trading down here.
Although I am not crazy about Stauskus, I think he would be a pretty good fit at SG for precisely the reasons you have stated (spacing).
I also think he is athletic enough to play in Brown’s uptempo system.
To me, this draft can make or break the Sixers. After the consensus top 3 guys, I really would like them to further buildout their roster by adding Vonleh (trade up) or stauskus.
Use the 2nd RD. picks for BPA, depth additions, and potential stashes.
By the way, thanks for the content you put out. It is logical and has substance. Hope you keep it up.
If the Sixers take someone other than Nurkic, who do you see the Magic taking? Do you think Nurkic is a fit there?
I doubt you can play Nurkic with Vucevic so he’s not a good fit.
Why is James Young so low in your mock?
It wasn’t intentional. I just kept trying to guess which player each team might pick and he ended up sliding. I could have given him to the Wolves over Saric, but Saric seems a bit more likely since he is rated higher by the crowd. Then after that? 14-21 includes Phoenix x2, Boston, Atlanta, Toronto, OKC, Chicago x2. Those are collectively a lot of good drafters and I don’t see any of them getting seduced by Young’s scoring upside since he doesn’t offer all that much else. Maybe Chicago would give him a whirl since they need scoring, but that forces them to play Jimmy Butler at SG. But one dimensional scorers are rarely good fits anywhere.
So unless he gets a bad team to reach for him early, I could see Young sliding a bit.
As a Celtic fan, I agree with the first selection (and thought process), I might suggest that Porzingis would make more sense at 17, unless the idea is that you think they’d want the more ready player at this point.
I would suggest that Charlotte is an ideal trade down partner to grab Saric, whose scoring prowess and high level of professional experience also makes him attractive to Charlotte and other teams looking for “upperclassmen” types and as such probably goes higher as suggested by the “group.”
For Boston, they are spinning this Ainge loves 6 idea know. If true, it’s Love or someone he “loves” and probably holds. But, if bs, a 6 for 9 and 23 is appealing all the way around. It would be Nurkic at 9, wing at 17 (say Warren) and Dinwiddie at 23. Plug and play Warren offsets the development costs for Nurkic and the injury concern with Dinwiddie. My 2 cents.
I like the idea of 6 for 9 + 24 and grabbing any of Nurkic/Smart/Gordon #9 (one of em will be there).
I am fine with either Porzingis or Capela at #17. At a glance, Capela seems better to me so I went with him. But any rim protector to balance out Sully/KO at PF would be nice.
The draft is rife with possibilities for the Celtics and I can’t wait to see how Ainge plays it.
If Nurkic is available at 17 (somewhat unlikely), the Celtics gotta take him right?
Yeah, but frankly I’m starting to get just as excited by the idea of Capela. He seems awesome to me. He actually may be available and would be a great pick for Boston.
I’m curious. You have Atlanta looking at a couple of point guards when they took a young Dennis Schroeder last year. I think they are more likely to look at a Clint Capela with that pick, or possibly Kristaps Porzingis. Danny Ferry is a smart GM, and he comes from the San Antonio Spurs school of drafting, which goes very strong on the international front and also likes to take overlooked players from smaller schools.
After his rookie season I doubt Schroeder has any bearing on who they draft. He’s a dud and getting somebody who eventually may upgrade Teague wouldn’t be bad.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they took Capela or Staps with that pick though. I liked Ferry’s approach of taking internationals last year when the talent was thin even if Schroeder looks like he won’t pan out. I think they’ll end up making a good pick whether it be an NCAA PG who slides (Payton/Ennis) or another international. You may be right that they lean harder toward internationals though– Capela is great value and Staps gives them a stretch 5 with quite a bit more talent than Pero and I imagine both are on Ferry’s short list.
I write for peachtreehoops.com and Schroeder is not viewed by Atlanta as a dud. The last need on the Hawks list right now is point guard as they also have the option to re-sign Shelvin Mack. I love Ennis and Atlanta could go that way on best player available, but there is no way they take Payton when they already have a young, athletic point guard that cannot shoot (Schro). So far, Ferry seems to be focusing on tweener forward types potentially to replace production lost from Mike Scott getting overpaid this offseason. Personally, I am hoping they go after McDaniels but that is my own bias.
What do you think about Vonleh? Ben Dowslett at Salt City Hoops says he has low bball IQ. Does that every improve? He has a super low assist rate, a below average block rate for someone his size, is not particuarly explosive, and the 48% from three was based on only one shot per game. He sounds high risk to me and definitely a project. What the jazz are looking for is an all-star but if they can’t find that do the settle for another big man, low iq project? The describes the past 4 years of Kanter and Favors to a T. I think if the Jazz are going to take a project big man they are going to take someone who can contribute right away and that would be Gordon with his D, passing, and transition game. The jazz really need D. If they don’t take Gordon then I think they’ll take Smart. They are not at the point where they can take simply the best player available. I think it has to be best player available who can contribute right away.
I agree with those critiques of Vonleh although dumb may be a bit harsh. He’s really young and played for a bad coach where his entire team had a bizarrely high turnover rate, so it might not be 100% his fault. My biggest concern is that for all of his size and length he was a pretty bad rim finisher, that scares me for his upside, esp since he doesn’t pass. It puts a lot of pressure on his shooting and defense to be good.
I definitely think they need to take the guy who has the best potential down the road. They aren’t going to contend for a playoff spot next year and rookies hardly ever make positive impacts anyway. But I think Gordon + Smart are better w/ more upside so I agree they should be taken ahead of Vonleh. But Gordon could never learn to shoot or be a worse version of Josh Smith; it’s really hard to get a risk free prospect at #5.
And it could be worse– I think Vonleh is a WAY better prospect than Randle but Chad Ford keeps pitching Randle as an NBA ready guy who could go in Utah’s slot.
Not dumb, low bball IQ.
I like Chad Ford and he has good intel, but Randle pretty closely duplicates Kanter. Strong post game and rebounding, ability (supposedly in Randle) to make jumpers out to 3, terrible D.
About best player available, they are starting year five of a kind of fumbled youth movement and they are starting to pass out year five contracts. The #5 pick represents a tanking season and if that turns into a long term project they are going to be wasting the high paid years or the four young guys. That’s why if they pick there I think that guy has to contribute right away.
I was thinking about it last night and what the Jazz really need (beside lots of D and shooting and bball IQ) is some competitive ego. Trey Burke has it but everyone else is way laid back. Who has more competitive ego, Smart, Gordon, or Vonleh? I think Smart. I think if they keep the pick they should take Smart, even though I really like Gordon.
Competitive ego is slippery to assess because we are thin slicing these kids from afar. But I agree it’s a paramount trait for prospects to develop into stars. Most of the guys who developed way better than expected like Paul George and Westbrook have it big time. Smart definitely has it, Gordon probably has it, and I’m worried Vonleh doesn’t. You gotta be a bit meek to be so inefficient at the rim at his size, and his interview was totally bleh.
It’s an awfully unscientific way to assess prospects. But if you do it well, you can probably get a some extra edge in the draft.
It’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.
How far should Embiid slide (and how far will he)?
There have been two very high profile cases of Embiid’s particular injury ending centers’ careers, of course, but it isn’t clear how predictive that is. Would love to see any stats on this particular injury or on injury-prone-ness in general that you might have. From SI:
“[Asst Prof of Orthopedics Dr.] Hunt noted that despite the high profile examples of athletes who have battled recurrences of a navicular fracture, “the healing rates of this fracture are high.”
“The majority of these injuries will heal completely,” Hunt said. “Getting to it early is a good prognostic sign. In his case, it appears it was treated early and appropriately. In the cases I have seen, the athletes that have recurrent fractures have high arches and stiff feet. They can develop large spurs in the adjacent bones. But again, to the majority of athletes this will heal and not be an issue in the future.”
source: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/news/20140619/joel-embiid-stress-fracture-2014-nba-draft/#ixzz35EkTm1F6
Based on all these doctor’s descriptions that say finding it early is good and he should heal completely, it doesn’t sound like the biggest downside risk in the world and he should still clearly go #1.
That said he now has had a knee, back, and foot injury all after 647 minutes of NCAA play. I don’t even know how he injured his foot in the offseason– did it happen in a 1 on 0 workout? How do we adjust his future likelihood of staying healthy based on this? I don’t know, but it is a bit unsettling.
No matter what it seems like he has enough hope of staying healthy to remain a highly valuable prospect. There’s a case that he still belongs at #1, and there’s also a case that he should slide a few slots down.
I don’t have a strong stance on his likelihood of staying healthy but there is definitely a limit to how much he should slide based on this. He was in a tier of his own when presumed to be healthy and upside should be valued on an exponential curve (I would have taken him over picks #2 + #3 if he had no injury concerns). To get knocked off the #1 slot his value needs to be slashed tremendously, and I think no matter how this information is taken it’s not severe enough to place him outside of my top 5.